Thursday, October 6, 2011

Opening Night: Why Do the Oilers Have to Wait?

The NHL starts up again tonight, it should be an exciting season in many cities across the league. Based on the media reports I've seen, three Canadian teams (Vancouver, Montreal, Toronto) will win the Stanley and there's probably 7 or 8 in the USA who feel the same way.

Oiler fans have to wait until Sunday--they are the last team to pop the cork on the season--to play Pittsburgh. It won't be an ieal opening for fans, the blue is still beat up and I'd bet a 2-4 coach Renney starts Khabibulin in net for G1.

The fun for Oiler fans this season will be the 20 or so games in which "firewagon hockey" returns to the NHL.
I think there will be a lot of 4-1 losses and 5-2 L's, but the offense should be able to post some crooked numbers a few nights this season. IF all six of Hall, Eberle, Hemsky, Smyth, Omark, Paajarvi stay healthy this team should have a large jump in offense. During the RE series, I suggested this version of the Oilers will score 30 more goals than one year ago; that's a huge increase but there's some very good hockey players on the team. I think they'll allow around 250, and will be about -24 overall. That's a huge GF-GA improvement.

More than wins and losses, I think that's the item to follow. Edmonton was -76 GF/GA one year ago, with special teams a complete sink-hole. Improve that number and the wins will follow.  I sure wish they had another actual NHL defenseman.


17 comments:

  1. Specialty teams are the key;

    I think that the addition of Belanger, Petrell, Sutton and even Lander should improve the PK.

    The PP hinges on RNH. If he survives the 9 game barrier then his skill set is superior to Gagner's Horcoff out of the PP - addition by subtraction.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I think Khabi should start the season.

    If Renney starts Dubnyk in game 1 and he gets lit up will this cause the fans to jump all over him and the coach to lose confidence?

    You start Khabi in game 1, puts less pressure on Dubnyk and if he gets beat no big deal because everyone was expecting it, next game you now switch to Dubnyk and even if he loses people will still have more faith in his abilities than Khabi's.

    If Khabi plays well you know you have something and can split the games with Dubnyk all season.

    A small prayer..Please god let our special teams be better this year..

    amen

    ReplyDelete
  3. RNH and Omark looked better at the half board than Hemsky on the PP. Could be rust, but if it continues, it could add to the trade push.

    ReplyDelete
  4. @Gus I don't think it is rust, Hemsky (in my opinion) has never been the best on the pp.
    When he works the halfboards the pp seems to stand still and there is not a lot of movement, add to this it is rare he attacks the net or shoots. RNH and Omark have added a fantastic dynamic to the pp just by being willing to charge to the net.

    ReplyDelete
  5. LT: That's not a problem.

    October's not over.

    Yankees and Tigers settle it tonight =P.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I get the feeling from his recent posts that LT thinks the Oilers need another defenceman.

    I think that the addition of Belanger, Petrell, Sutton and even Lander should improve the PK.

    Eventually. But in the short term there are going to be some severe adjustments for the rookies.

    ReplyDelete
  7. This whole notion of wanting to see Crosby play or wanting to start a few days earlier...

    I don't care. I want to see the Oilers win, nothing else matters.

    Pittsburgh playing their third game in four nights without Sid makes that more of a possibility.

    So wait I shall.

    ReplyDelete
  8. This team with even an average NHL blue line could be scary.

    ReplyDelete
  9. This sort of thing is always nice to read:

    http://thepipelineshow.blogspot.com/2011/10/great-gernat-ices-kootenay-for-oil.html

    ReplyDelete
  10. "add to this it is rare he attacks the net or shoots"

    Makes him easy to defend, just cut off the passing lane, rush the D when he puts it to the point for the big drive.

    I think that will change now.

    ReplyDelete
  11. FastOil: That's not *easy* to defend. Cut off the passing lane and make sure there's no route to the net tends to mean you have to double or triple-team the guy. i.e. defend against him as if he were Gretzky or Lemieux. I don't think any defender would call that an easy assignment.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Eventually. But in the short term there are going to be some severe adjustments for the rookies.

    Can't fix stupid, however short term adjustments are just that.

    ReplyDelete
  13. A 6'5" Kid defenceman with a thunderous hip check.

    Oh frabjous day!!

    Oh boy, oh boy - heh, heh

    ReplyDelete
  14. The PP hinges on RNH. If he survives the 9 game barrier then his skill set is superior to Gagner's Horcoff out of the PP - addition by subtraction.

    I do not think that "addition by subtraction" means what you think that it means.

    ReplyDelete
  15. I do not think that "addition by subtraction" means what you think that it means.

    It's a paradigm shift

    ReplyDelete
  16. Horcoff should have done pre thinking exercises for his PP participation. Hemsky's got the puck, go to the slot, here comes the puck - pause -


    evaci -Latin for I poop.

    ReplyDelete
  17. delooper:

    The thing is he doesn't attack the net or shoot much so they don't have to do anything but have one guy in front of him as he goes up and down the boards a few feet.

    Which is why the powerplay is so bad, because when he's playing, the half wall thing has been the only strategy.

    If Hemsky was more aggressive offensively he would take the next step in production. He certainly has the physical tools, and scores well 5 on 5. Standing still seems to neutralize him.

    But I agree if it was Lemieux or Gretzky, or even H Sedin it would be hard.

    ReplyDelete