The club also sent Teemu Hartikainen down, as he faded just a little in the home stretch of a long training camp and preseason. The Ryan Jones contract was also a contributor.
The good news is for Lander, a young man who had to play very well in order to make the team in the same season as RNH. As was the case in 2007, the Oilers will likely break camp with two rookie centers.
It's also good news for Lennart Petrell, who may be the only player in NHL history to make a team on the strength of a screaming performance on the PK. Here is the current depth chart.
- G Devan Dubnyk
- G Nikolai Khabibulin
- D Ryan Whitney (injured)
- D Tom Gilbert
- D Cam Barker
- D Ladislav Smid (injured)
- D Theo Peckham
- D Andy Sutton
- D Taylor Chorney (injured)
- D Jeff Petry
- D Corey Potter
- D Taylor Fedun (injured)
- C Sam Gagner (injured)
- C Shawn Horcoff
- C Eric Belanger
- C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
- C Anton Lander
- L Taylor Hall
- L Ryan Smyth
- L Magnus Paajarvi
- L Ben Eager (injured)
- L Darcy Hordichuk
- L Lennart Pettrell
- R Ales Hemsky
- R Jordan Eberle
- R Linus Omark
- R Ryan Jones
Petrell staying is good news, and more proof that they really didn't need to give Jones that 2 year deal in the offseason. This team desperately needed players who can kill penalties and Belanger/Petrell are big steps in that direction.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad to see the decision to keep Lander over Brule, but he may end up in OKC once Gagner returns, or if RNH doesn't stay past 9 games (which seems unlikely).
Glad that Lander earned a spot.LT what are the chances of Brule getting picked up, and do you think a good stint in OKC will do him any good? I'm wondering if he could be a tradeable assett come Christmas. Does he have to clear re entry waivers before we can deal him? Even if he turns it around I think his career has ran it's course in Edmonton.
ReplyDeleteI can't see any possible way RNH doesn't stay the whole year. There's so much more to his game than I expected.
ReplyDeletetrav: I think this roster is far from set, the team is likely to grab a D off waivers this week and other things are probably in play (I hope, I hope).
ReplyDeleteBrule's screwed. Tyler wrote an article last year about Brule's not being available for road games and we found out later he had some concussion issues and some other baggage that impacted his availability.
ANY TEAM is going to have the same concern.
I prefer they way you described the Harski demotion in the previous thread:
ReplyDeleteharski's a victim of the idiotic Jones signing. There's no other way to state this.
None.
Jones is by far the worst hockey player on the roster and its not close. (yes I know Hordichuck is on the roster, but he fills a perceived need, Barker might be 2nd)
Tencer tweeted his projection for opening night line combos and Barker was on 1st pairing with 77.
Jesus wept.
Verification word=blesedif
V3.1 would be blesedif he could get a top 4 dman and flush that ridiculous Jones contract
I hope Brule gets claimed. It would get us some room under the 50 contract limit (which we're at now with the apparent Martindale signing), but it allows a kid you can't help but pull for keep his NHL career alive.
ReplyDeleteVery interesting news-I thought they would give Brule a few games just because that's what the Oilers do.
ReplyDeleteBrule will have to come through re-entry waivers if they recall him, so if there is any interest for him he'll be available for half of the $1.85M on his contract.
I agree misfit. A few years ago Brule was an elite prospect. I wonder how his career would've turned out if Columbus wouldn't have rushed him so quickly.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the Oilers recall him. It's a sad story, but part of any sport is being available. Remember when the Oilers had all of those injuries and Brule couldn't go?
ReplyDeleteA coach will remember that forever.
How much cap room do we have? Is Hemsky the only contract coming off the books this year?
ReplyDeletePerhaps recall waivers are the end game here-Brule at $900k might be more attractive to some team-we'll find out this week.
ReplyDeleteEither way,he was just marking time with this org anyway-they would have to qualify him at $1.85 next year and then add term to that if he is/was indeed in their plans.I don't see that happening at all.
LT:
ReplyDeleteIt'll be interesting to see what happens with Brule - it may even be that they recall him before the season starts to try and lose him on re-entry waivers.
Eklund thinks Isles or Leafs will pick up Brule.He's a funny guy.
ReplyDeleteEcstatic that both Petrell and Lander made the team. I think both of these guys will be difference makers in their own right.
ReplyDeleteNow if Tambellini could just fix our never-ending defense issue, I'd be happy.
Taylor Chorney won't hit the IR, since he SHOULD be back for the season start. So maybe the Oilers pick up a waived d-man (should another one hit the waiver line) or sign McCabe to a 1-year deal or something to that effect.
speeds: It seems counter. He's played poorly and has an injury history.
ReplyDeleteCan't imagine that he'll be the most attractive F on the waiver wire this week.
I'm wondering how long it will take before we see hartikainen back with the big team.He showed pretty good.
ReplyDeletetrav: He's probably the first injury callup, which means he's here opening night. :-)
ReplyDeleteDoes Lander making the team impact his ELC? What I mean is would his ELC have started anyways in the AHL due to age?
ReplyDeleteYes. Lander is 20, it would roll no matter this season.
ReplyDeleteLT: but what's the downside to findng out? If he clears re-entry, no big deal, just send him back down to the AHL.
ReplyDeletespeeds: Oh sure, if they think there's someone out there interested then I think it's a good idea.
ReplyDeleteDo you think a team will take him? He looked addled in preseason.
Brule joins the Schremp/Pouliot/Rita club.
ReplyDeleteThing is, he was too small to play in the NHL.
The good news: Oilers are up to their armpits in dynamite forward prospects.
Today's news: Oilers fans see the forwards potentially breaking out fast, while management evaluate the defence. I don't like it, but defer to some kind of master plan whereby this season's written off in advance, barring the still not proven explosion of the forward corps.
IF this is where Tambellini's at, I'm all for it.
Next year I expect a playoff team, that's for sure. This season I'll be happy to watch the youngsters scare the living daylights out of the opposition, 1972(?)Sabres style.
I don't know if anyone would claim him, but I think it's probably worth trying. Often there's some team that thinks they can reclaim a guy with a high pedigree
ReplyDeleteWell, maybe "often" is too strong, but it's not impossible.
ReplyDeleteLet me put it this way, I'd be less surprised if someone claimed Brule on re-entry than I was when CLB claimed Moreau.
lol. Good point.
ReplyDeleteYou know Brule just might turn into a Detroit reclamation project for a team with lots of time on it's hands. He has the skill, can skate and hits. Could be a real good defensive forward ala Cleary when he gets three or four years older.
ReplyDeletehunter1909 said...
ReplyDeleteBrule joins the Schremp/Pouliot/Rita club.
Also brought to you by the Oiler Player Devaluation Department:
Souray, Cogliano, Gagner (soon), Jones (soon),
Sometimes if you hang onto a bottle of wine too long it turns into vinegar.
At least he only cost us Raffi Torres not too high of a price. Man, Raffi now there is a loose cannon
ReplyDeleteI though Brulé was supposed to be a reclamation project when he came here. His career's in deep kaka now. He might be in Swededn by this time next year.
ReplyDeleteTime to shed the mini players(sans Omark who's a gem), and concentrate on more of these Lander types.
ReplyDeleteThe more I hear of these pampered hockey players having mental issues, the more I want to vomit. Suck it up girls, and if you're soo unhappy here's a perfect solution:
Next summer instead of going to the beach, sign on with a day to day temp agency, and spend the summer working in car washes, moving furniture etc. I guarantee you won't ever so much as pout the rest of your lives.
Like in the good old days, when most of the players had summer jobs. And Gordie Howe could be seen in the Bay, sitting in a Santa style grotto handing out Gordie Howe pics, for a couple of hundred bucks a week.
I'll bet anyone my hockeyfuture v cash Howe never lost any sleep either.
This is two cutdown days in a row that the Oilers have sent away really good players (Omark a year ago, Hartikainen today).
ReplyDeleteSays something about the procurement department, and maybe one day the Oilers will have so few wonky contracts the 12 best forwards will make the team.
Lander has played very well. He has an all-around game like Couture displayed last season. I think he's a serious Calder candidate.
ReplyDeleteI think Jones deserves his spot. He seems to have improved his mobility and is making better passing decisions. I don't think he's as bad a hockey player as people make him out to be.
Hartikainen can use the seasoning like Omark last year; I'm not too upset about that move. I'd rather have Petrell here to play a defined role and release Harski on the NHL when he's fully ready, Detroit style.
ReplyDeleteChoosing Lander over Brulé to cover for Gagner shows they actually are making decisions with less fear of being eaten by the waiver wraiths than in the past. And that's a stunning revelation, the more I think of it.
Mionet: #eddie
Next summer I wouldn't be at all surprised if Shea Weber, or another comparable defenceman joins the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteTo any good defenceman looking to win a cup with a young team, the Oilers are perfect.
Oilers are universally seen as a team very much on the rise.
If you don't have a good puck moving D- man then your forwards are in trouble.
ReplyDeleteIt is nice to have some young talented forwards but w/o Dmen it is over
Jones will be paid mostly to sit in the pressbox and be a good teammate (a la Strudwick) for the next two years.
ReplyDeleteThe loads of ice time in all situations in OKC will not hurt Hartikainen. He is the first callup if there is an injury.
The Oilers logjam at forward won't begin to clear up until Hemsky's future is decided one way or the other.
I'm okay with Hartikainen being sent back. He can use some more seasoning and I'd rather he get bigger minutes in the A while Petrell stays and plays in a limited defined role. Bring in Harski, Detroit style, when he's fully ready and can crack the top 9.
ReplyDeleteSending Brule down and keeping Lander to fill in for Gagner while he recovers shows the Oil are no longer using their fear of being eaten by the waiver wraiths to make roster decisions. And that's a stunning revelation.
mionet: #eddie
Yeah Hunter - because that's how mental illness/post concussion related depression works. Just buck up boys and it'll go away.
ReplyDeleteI didn't want Brule to take a spot from a better player either but to belittle these issues is ridiculous especially in light of the suicides of former players this year.
40th pick. 97th pick. 163rd pick.
ReplyDeleteHaHa.
Five MBS picks on the roster: Eberle, MP, Lander, Hall and RNH.
ReplyDeleteBubbling under: Hartikainen, a couple others.
Tracy Lane
ReplyDeleteTreenasOil Tracy Lane
Leafs sniffing around Brûlée considering putting claim (leafs insider)
13 minutes ago
"Tencer ............night line combos and Barker was on 1st pairing with 77.
ReplyDeleteJesus wept."
This is great WG.
The Jones thing has been telegraphed since last spring. "Sign him, sign him" the people clamoured. "He scored EIGHTEEN goals!"
ReplyDeleteA summer later, he's not even the best player for the position. It goes to show how mediocrity (or even poor play) can be elevated by comparison to downright awful. But someone, somewhere, needs to start saying "hold it, maybe we don't need to sign this guy."
Or perhaps someone needs to get fired for doing this year after year.
Still, a nice problem to have. Too many good forwards, I mean.
So the Jones contract is a contributing factor in sending Harski down to OKC? Right...just like Brule's one-way contract was the reason why he was kept on the big club ahead of Lander...oh wait.
ReplyDeleteCould it be that Renney likes Jones's game and that he isn't nearly as awful as portrayed on this site and amongst others in your calculator gang? Nah, that can't be the case...those of us who disagree are misinformed retards incapable of deciphering that we're trying to eat a rock for breakfast until we lose at least four of our teeth in the process.
Lowetide: Just like all of us non-stats fans have no idea what's going on? This could go on and on...
ReplyDeleteI want to know what makes Ryan Jones such a god-awful hockey player. Am I advocating his raise? Nope, not in the least. Do I think he can be an effective 4th liner? Yep.
The Oilers side with me, and they are oft-ridiculed by those in your corner for doing so. I want to know why.
Tambellini
ReplyDelete-he wants Brule to get big minutes in OKC (assuming he clears) rather than 8 minutes a night on the 4th line-Renney wants a different type of body playing a bottom 6 role
Sam Crowe: My feelings on Jones are expressed here:
ReplyDeletehttp://lowetide.blogspot.com/2011/08/re-11-12-ryan-jones.html
In that post, I wrote the following:
Jones scored 15 goals at even strength, tied with men like Teemu Selanne and David Booth. Jones scored his 15 EV goals in 881 minutes, Selanne took 1055 minutes and Booth 1302.
I just don't think it's reasonable for anyone to expect Jones to score 18 goals, and the Oilers had to know they were backing up qualified prospects by signing him.
I think he'll play less and score less this season, and a year from now his contract won't look too good.
Nothing against him, it's a matter of increased depth and quality. And you'll notice I didn't use much math to make the argument.
According to Tambellini's interview - he'd like Hartikainen to play top six minutes in Oklahoma.
ReplyDeleteSounds like they're developing him, and he's not competing with Jones for a fourth line, pressbox spot.
Isn't that the "right" thing to do?
Lowetide: Then we're in general agreement, Ryan Jones isn't going to score 18 goals again. That's not a stretch, I think any reasonable fan would agree with that.
ReplyDeleteI should clarify by what I meant in my initial Jones rant, it pertained to the many comments made by other posters on this site. I get it, the math doesn't like him. Some claim he's completely inept as a hockey player, which I don't agree with whatsoever.
As for the contract, it's $1.5 MIL and the Oilers have plenty of cap space. What's the big deal? The club is taking a gamble here, much like it did with Brule. Brule proved to be incapable of maintaining his pace and the organization did what they had to do in placing him on waivers. This was after ONE SEASON of ineptitude. It's not like they waited for frigging ever to make a decision on him. So why wouldn't they do the same should Jones have a similar experience?
I understand the angst towards the Oilers brass, they got the club in this place to begin with. But thus far, IMO Tambellini has made more good moves than bad in rebuilding the franchise. I think he's unfairly characterized, as are some of us non-Math yet reasonable fans, for failing to grasp the essential shortcomings of this hockey club.
The Jones gamble is a small one in the grand scheme of things. Hell, it's a smaller one than Brule. I call this the "search for the next Glencross." Is Jones the next Glencross? No, not in my opinion. Am I about to criticize Tambi and Co. for spending an extra $0.5 MIL on someone who they have a hunch on? No, that's unfair.
Lowetide: And as for increased depth and quality (which I agree with), what's so bad about letting Harski play every night in OKC?
ReplyDeleteAs you say, let him "rip the cover off the ball" in AAA. There's no rush to get him up to the show, his time will obviously come. I just don't see the Jones contract as the reason why he isn't staying up for opening night.
Sam Crowe: I think generally the Oilers did well today, getting Petrell on this roster (imo) could be very good if he's the PK demon that he looks to be.
ReplyDeleteThe Jones issue is one of those perfect math storms, where he really did have terrible things happening when he was on the ice but never paid for them.
When that happens, the next year usually catches up to these players.
Sam Crowe: Sending Hartikainen to the minors is fine, he'll do well there and come back ready to rip it up.
ReplyDeleteMy issue is (and always has been) that these young players should be elevated when ready. I think hartikainen is ready, in fact I think he's better than Jones right now.
Remember when Pisani was ready? The Oilers zipped Cleary out of town right away because he was not playing well and needed a change of scenery.
Jones is coming off a terrific season, I'd say a career season. I agree, it was a tough call for the Oilers because of Jones impressive season, but also believe it isn't second guessing to suggest that his recent season is extremely unlikely to repeat.
I'm with Sam Crowe in that Hartikainen playing top six minutes in OKC makes more sense than having him as a fourth liner. I also think he'll be back soon, all it takes is one of the top nine wingers to go down.
ReplyDeleteDon't agree with you on Tambellini though Sam. I don't care too much about Jones. He's absolutely lost in his own end and that does count. He's also an awful skater. He can score goals though, no doubt about it.
The problem with Jones (as you said yourself you don't advocate his raise) is that he is another example of a bad contract. Khabibulin, Brule, Jones, he traded for O'Sullivan.
It doesn't matter now because the team is still junk and nobody is making any money (well not many guys).
But when these kids start getting paid and suddenly they are up against the cap and they have two or three garbage contracts well ... I think then we might see an issue.
I doubt Tambellini will be around then anyhow and hopefully Lowe will be only a figurehead. Because these contracts (and a lot that Lowe handed out - Souray being a perfect example) could kill this team and most importantly it shows that these guys might not have much of an eye for talent.
And that last point is the big one.
Lowetide: Fair enough, thanks for taking the time.
ReplyDeleteIf I wasn't clear across the country, I'd buy the first round.
Sam: Mail it! :-)
ReplyDeleteJones is going to be a pressbox player with Hordichuk as soon as Eager is healthy.
ReplyDeletei.e. Jones does not have Hartikainen's spot. Hartikainen is NOT going to be a pressbox player.
Petrell is solid defensively and can PK. Hartikainen is still mediocre defensively and cannot PK.
And the Hemsky/Omark decision has not been made.
Basically, Hartiainen's spot is awaiting the Hemsky/Omark decision.
Black Dog: I, too, have that fear as well...but the shining light of promise for me when it comes to Tambi is that the "mistakes" he's made since the Khabibulin signing have been marginal ones. The organization can easily live with a gamble here or there on a player like Brule or Jones, wouldn't you agree?
ReplyDeleteI'd rather he miss the target on a couple of low-price gambles than on something big (i.e. a starting goaltender). His track record there isn't great, but since the Booz'NCrawl he hasn't made that same glaring mistake with an overpriced, high-profile free agent signing. I know, small victories, but it's a start when you consider the shit that this organization used to pull...
Since when was it not a benefit to have young players around the big club and practicing with them?
ReplyDeleteThere's nothing wrong with not playing every game.
Sam Crowe: One thing I was going to mention but forgot (age). Jones HAS some math on his side in the name of shooting percentage going all the way back to college.
ReplyDeleteI don't think he'll sustain it, but he was scoring at abnormal rates in NCAA hockey too.
Points to Tambellini for breaking the Oilers' pattern of deciding roster spots based on who they'd committed to pay.
ReplyDeleteI still think that those of you who think that Jones is destined for regular pressbox duty are giving the GM too much credit, though.
Is Hemsky the only contract coming off the books this year?
From the NHL roster, Smyth, Hordichuk, Hemsky, and Sutton are UFAs after this year. Barker's an RFA who stands a good chance of not being qualified (which isn't a knock on Tambellini, since I assume Barker was signed with the knowledge that he may not be qualified - low risk signing). Brule's an RFA who almost certainly won't be qualified.
Hartikainen to the AHL is a good decision as long as the thought is that he will be up here sometime this season. His game in the preseason showed some wrinkles that I think are better addressing in the AHL. While he often looked good, at times he looked lost.
ReplyDeleteThis is a good development move in my books.
I hope the reduced stress of the minors helps Brule in progressing forward. I would like to see him get another shot in the NHL.
Lowetide: that he does, so we'll see if that continues through this season (obviously something has to give).
ReplyDeleteAdmittedly, I've liked Jones's game since his time at Miami Ohio (received a lot of anecdotal evidence that he was a player of interest and might contribute in the show).
So I guess you could say that I "heard him good"? Something like that...
Hey Lowetide
ReplyDeletewhat do you think about moving Paajarvi to defense and keeping Hartikainen up permanently. Paajarvi played defense into his teens if i recall correctly and I think it could benefit the team long term.
Sam Crowe:
ReplyDeleteI am comfortable with both sides of the math/eye argument. I watched the Vancouver game, and what I saw were rookie and second year players beating Canucks to the puck, winning and keeping possession - gold.
The coverage mistakes that lost the game will stop in time. Winning battles and keeping the puck wins games and playoff series.
I saw Jones not doing that. He is appealing as a personality, but doesn't get the right things done on the ice. He might score 25, but 35-40 will get scored against him, and if he doesn't mind losing battles too much, it's guaranteed he'll lose more of them when the opponent is trying his hardest, like at a critical moment or a playoff game.
Likely Harti and such could benefit from a bit more seasoning. But if you're going to fill a spot ahead of them, get a quality vet who can at least teach something and sit or retire if the prospect is ready. Someone like Draper, etc.
Signing a guy like Jones with nothing on his NHL resume after a career year has burnt the Oilers before and they should know better by now. Unless.............
Hartikainen waiting for Hemsky/Omark? More likely waiting for Smyth retirement.
ReplyDeletehockeyman: I think he has some nice things for defense but man he's a beauty winger. I'd keep him there.
ReplyDeleteWatching the baseball game and damned if Arthur Rhodes doesn't show up to strike out Howard.
He must be 90. Is Jesse Orosco in the STL bullpen too? What about Darold Knowles?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteJoanne Ireland from the Edmonton Journal writes: "For now, Tambellini said he is not going to be reeling in another defenceman that has been waived by another team."
ReplyDeleteSeriously? Come on! We're starting the season without two of our top 4... and our top 4 was weak to begin with! Plus, the beginning of the season is usually when teams are at their healthiest! With Fedun gone for the season and Tuebert still injured, who's the first call-up when someone goes down with an injury in the season opener... Alex Plante? Lowery?
If Tambo isn't at least LOOKING at claiming a player, signing a free agent, or making a trade, cheering for the Oilers this year may be an exercise in masochism. At the very least, it'll be an introduction to a world of bitterness known only to my friends who are Maple Leafs fans.
Note: The most concerning thing about this post for me is that I'm not sure if I'm going to look back on it thinking it was an over-reaction or an under-reaction.
Geez, you guys. Tambellini isn't going to tell the press he is going to claim a defenseman off of waivers or that he is going to make a trade for one IF that is what he wants to do.
ReplyDeleteSaying you would do that means the teams with candidates likely to be claimedmore likely to keep 8 guys on the roster early, or drive up the price in a trade.
As another contributing factor, having both Lander and RNH mean keeping Harski at this point becomes very difficult. Hasn't the Oilogosphere been railing against too many rookies at once?
ReplyDeleteThe kid is close and he looks like he will get a shot later this year after working a little more on his game. This situation sounds ideal for his development - IMO Jones is a non-factor in the decision.
//Hartikainen waiting for Hemsky/Omark? More likely waiting for Smyth retirement.//
ReplyDeleteSmyth is NOT likely to retire for a couple of more years.
Hemsky/Omark decision gets made within 12 months.
Ergo, Hartikainen permanent job likely comes from Hemsky or Omark.
When Smyth retires, that is likely Hamilton's spot.
Godot10: If no movement of either Hemsky or Omark, which I think will be the case, then Hartikainen is 2 years away. He needs to play top 9, not 4th line in Jones spot.
ReplyDeleteValid point Godot re: Tambo not spelling out to the world he's claiming someone. The quote still fills me with rage but I acknowledge that the fear that Tambo won't address the D has made me a tad jumpy.
ReplyDeleteGodot10: If no movement of either Hemsky or Omark, which I think will be the case, then Hartikainen is 2 years away. He needs to play top 9, not 4th line in Jones spot.
ReplyDeleteI guess that would break the 14th commandment:
Thou shalt not have good hockey player on your fourth line
Damn near every good hockey player started in the NHL on a sheltered line, except for a few real high end players. Even 3rd in the NHL in 5v5 pts/60 Hemsky started there.
I don't understand the aversion to easing good young hockey players into the NHL on the 4th line.
Especially when they are superior to those who are playing on the 4th line.
I guess only old timey teams do that.
Like the Stanley Cup champs easing Seguin in.
The 30th place team won't do it, but the Cup champs will.
Hmmmmm.
Will Harski be be worse off by spending more time in the AHL? Probably not.
Will the Oilers be worse with Jones in the line up rather than Harsaki? Probably.
Keep adding good players to your roster and pretty soon you have a roster of good players.
Your 4th line out scoring their 4th line counts.
The decision to re-sign Jones had to be made well before camp even started. If the decision is to let him go, either another FA has to be signed for the 4th line to replace him, in which case Hartikainen is blocked by that player. Or the Oilers have to go into camp assuming that both Petrell and Lander, who have never played in NA, will be ready to play in the NHL without any time in the AHL.
ReplyDeleteAnd if either or both turned out to be not quite ready, or if there had been some injuries in camp, then the Oilers would be facing the same depth problems in their bottom 6 as they are currently facing with their D.
Tambellini is (deservedly) taking heat from people on here for not recognising that the there wasn't close to enough NHL ready depth on D going into the season. I find it a little difficult to understand then why he's also getting criticised for going into the season with enough depth at forward that a young player who might be NHL ready has to start the season in the AHL. Isn't it better to err on the side of having too much depth than not enough?
@Woodguy
ReplyDeleteYour 4th line out scoring their 4th line counts.
This season looks to be an interesting re-test of some higher level theories.
Forward Makeup
Theory: One of the theories is that the 4th line is basically unimportant and should be filled with scrubs at minimum wage. The theory is that the scrubs play minimal amounts of time and are more-or-less role players (PK, "energy", and the like), and you want to give more time to your top 9 and especially top 3 forwards, whom you pay through the roof because they're so good.
Counter: The counter theory is that a deep team allows you to even out ice time, which is valuable, and outscore them using the bottom 6 forwards.
Test: The Oilers youth are a little older and they added a few legitimate players while keeping a similar level of goaltending and D. If last year was control/baseline, then this year is a decent test of the value of the deeper forward set.
Forward/Defence Makeup
Theory: A fundamental hockey question is: who really drives goal differential? IIRC Vic proposed it was the forwards since, except for a very few defencemen, differential historically seems to be largely driven by the forwards. And we've seen the difference between a league-average goaltender and the 4th best goalie doesn't seem to give away that many goals differential. So if you can get away with decent goalie, why not decent defence also? Obviously a Pronger instead of Sutton would be a huge substitution here and would reasonably be expected to affect goal differential above noise levels. But more than replacing, say, replacing Jones with Zetterberg?
Counter: A traditional thought we see repeated many times is that you build outward from the goalie and defence. Not sure what that says about forward acquisition, I guess you just fill out the forwards with whatever remnants you find under the cushions in the couch?
Test: Clearly, oh so clearly, the Oilers are not slavishly following this strategy on the rebuild. It looks like they'll launch again without the balance Lowetide rants yearly about. They didn't add Zetterberg and lose Pronger, but its looking very much like the forwards are where the main improvement is this year. It should add data for us to assess how much forwards drive differential and whether they can make defence/goal look better as a result. If they're still -zillion it will add some data to the counter theory pile. If they "surprise" they're another data point to temper the goal-out theory.
My Bets
For fun I'll bet that there is no free lunch anywhere on the roster; the corrolary is that you can compare teams fairly on as a 21 player collection without considering position.
Any other bets? This could be a fun season of armchair GMing!
Woodguy: that's a wonderful idea, in principle, but who would you throw to the wolves in order to shelter a 4th line with Hartikainen and Lander? Boston can give Seguin the easy minutes because they had a number of proven NHLers ahead of him. This year, every one of our lines will likely have a rookie or a sophmore on them.
ReplyDeleteThe only alternative would be a pure veteran line of Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky drawing the tough minutes, but then the rest of your lineup looks very green.
I can understand Renney's reluctance to put yet another rookie/youth on the roster, even if Jones is the alternative. The sheer amount of additional coaching must be taxing. Moreover, without the ability to truly give him the choice minutes, Harski in the AHL is probably the right call to start.
Woodguy: that's a wonderful idea, in principle, but who would you throw to the wolves in order to shelter a 4th line with Hartikainen and Lander?
ReplyDeleteJones is worse defensively than Harski and therefore needs more sheltering.
Opening night 4th line looks to be:
Petrell-Lander-Jones
Making it:
Petrell-Lander-Harski
Would upgrade the line, not downgrade it.(In terms of defensive ability)
They would certainly need less sheltering than something like:
JFJ-Fraser-Jones
Who did they "throw to the wolves" last year so those 3 could play together?
Oilswell,
ReplyDeleteGood stuff.
Agreed that at the very least the team shouldn't be too boring to watch.
WG
ReplyDeleteYou make it sound like it is a cut and dried thing and it is not.
Teams also develop players in the A. Teams also bring players up for cups of Joe. Harski is not Seguin. He's not Hemsky. Those guys could also be sheltered with PP time.
And Jones isn't that bad, and if he is, may also need to be showcased for a trade. There are plenty of considerations.
Your biases are showing.
Isn't it a bit morbid to have Taylor Fedun on the depth chart still? If the injury is as bad as has been reported, it's going to be a full calendar year before he walks properly again, let alone skates.
ReplyDeletespOILer,
ReplyDeleteHis scoring chance data last year showed that ever player he played with played worse with him than without him (except PRV)
There is no bias.
He is the black hole of scoring chances and shouldn't be on the team.
Woodguy:
ReplyDeleteYet, he put the puck in the net. A lot.
If Jones can continue to score goals at the level he has in the NHL so far, fine. If not, he'll warm the press box instead of putting a kid there who should be playing.
If we were up against the cap, there would be a bigger case against Jones' contract.
I can see the argument for 56 sticking around for the 4th line - in fact I have made it a few times myself - but I can also roll with the idea of giving him one last 25 game segment in OKC with a tonne of TOI with the eye towards him being the beneficiary of a bigger NHL role once the Oilers deal off a forwards for a real Dman.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers have two top four dmen when 6 is healthy and I think that 89 will get us another one. And given the situation down the middle I think gagner's the guy to go once it all shakes out.
And though no one could say that 28's gonna disappoint like 67 did, 67 being waived and farm gives me hope that if the time comes that it's warranted for the same fate to befall 28, the puppet will pull the trigger.
To close, I didn't think much of either of 37 or 56's games last Sat night in Van; at least not the EV portion. But 37 did look good on the PK and it gives us another bullet if the Oilers have good sense and use an up-tempo six forwards approach on the PK.
WG
ReplyDeleteThat's one season of one stat you are basing your decision-making on. That's bias.
He's earned at least another quarter to half season look in this semi-meaningless season.