The Edmonton Oilers 11-12 training camp offers us hope in some areas, painful despair in others. The forwards look slick and skilled, and there's some evidence the F troops may be improved over last season. The goaltending is likely to see a changing of the guard (coach Renney isn't sure of his starter but is leaning one way. Any NHL coach is going to go with the guy who can stop pucks over the guy who can't) so there's something brewing there. Defense? Well, the one thing that we all agreed could not happened has already happened, and the kicker is that there's no relief in sight. 
Whitney's injury (detailed by Jim Matheson here) has him behind the pace that would get him into the opening night lineup. The money quote in the article is here, as Whitney responds to a question about playing through the pain:
- “Yeah, a little bit but you can’t play like that. It’s prohibitive, the pain, if you go to do stuff and you feel it. It’s not something you can play through.”
Hockey players have reputation of being extremely tough, and Whitney strikes me as a guy who isn't going to let a flesh wound get him down. So, with that as the backdrop it is probably wise for the Oilers (and the fanbase) to proceed with plans that include out Whitney.
Which brings us to Tom Gilbert (in photo above). Despite Oiler fans verbal, the numbers suggest Gilbert is an effective defender who can play in all situations. His effectiveness-as is the case with all players--heavily depends on quality of linemates and opposition. It's also relies heavily on the quality of the goaltending supplied by his team. Here are the advanced stats I use every summer on the RE series, with the addition of SP while Gilbert is on the ice:
- 5x5 points per 60: 0.61 (4th among Oil D)
- 5x4 points per 60: 2.63 (4th among Oil D)
- Qual Comp: toughest among D
- Qual Team: 2nd best available among D
- Corsi Rel: 6.0 (best among D)
- Zone Start: 51.4% (4th easiest among D)
- Zone Finish: 50.9% (3rd best among D)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 106 shots/6 goals 5.7% (3rd best)
- Boxcars: 79gp, 6-20-26
- Plus Minus: -14 on a team that was -52
- SP behind him: .889 (worst on the team, 2nd worst in NHL)
Put another way, should Gilbert do the same thing as a year ago--land the tough opponents and come out with the best CorsiRel--the odds favor a better than .889SP on his watch just based on luck and less Khabibulin. Ryan Whitney's injuries are a concern and Oiler fans should be wringing their hands and gnashing their teeth. The Edmonton Oilers badly need an experienced anchor for the blue to replace Whitney and we all know he isn't coming.
None of that changes the calibre of Tom Gilbert. He's a good NHL hockey player, the most capable on the team and we should be thankful he's so healthy and a willing soldier.
Now, let's get back to ripping Gilbert for failures real and imagined, shall we?
--
Nation Radio hits the airwaves today at noon on Team 1260. Scheduled to appear:
- Ted Wyman from the Winnipeg Sun. We'll talk about the huge ratings success of the Jets and try to define this team's personality.
- David Staples from Cult of Hockey. We'll talk about the excellent "Oilers Way" series that is wrapping up today at COH and about the arena, Whitney's injury and if we have time David and I will discuss our opposing views on Sam Gagner.
- Ian Walker from the Vancouver Sun. Walker is one of my favorites guests to have on because no subject is off the table. We could discuss everything from marine life to Ogopogo, but the questioning model has me inquiring about the 11-12 Canucks.
- Derek Zona from Copper and Blue. We'll discuss the Oilers and ask ourselves if they're better this year. We'll also try to figure out a way to shoe-horn Teemu Hartikainen into the starting lineup.
- Kent Simpson from Oil Kings broadcasts. I'll ask Kent about the Oil Kings and their chances this coming season and will get a scouting report on Griffin Reinhart--who could be the next first round selection for the Edmonton Oilers.
just bite the bullet and keep Whitney out until he's absolutely ready to play or he'll re-injure himself again and start missing more time and we just don't need more of that!
ReplyDeleteMany of the metrics posted on Gilbert either show his offensive ability or are weighted offense vs. defense (i.e. cancelling out poor defensive numbers with good offensive ones).
ReplyDeleteI don't think anyone has a beef with Gilbert's offensive or puck moving ability.
That he was top 5 in the NHL in giveaways for defensemen shows me that Gilbert's going to make a poor first pass, cough up the puck, let forwards slip to the net or lose the puck on the boards and put even a quality goalie under duress.
Surely our goaltenders had a lot to do with our poor defense, but the same thing works the other way around.
That said, I hope Barker can be the stabilizing influence that Gilbert needs in the back, and would surely let him shine on offense.
You know what I don't like about Tom Gilbert? That damn hair! This is hockey, not Woodstock, you damn hippy!
ReplyDeleteWith Whitney this D was iffy, without him its going to be ugly, probably lottery ugly. Not only do we lose one of our top two but we lose the security blanket he provided to whichever kid played with him. A guy like Petry looks a lot better with that steady hand beside him.
Instead we're looking at Gilbert and Smid or Barker, then Peckham with the other as our top four.
Oh my.
What do you think LT? If Hartikainen and Lander continue to show well do you think they pull the trigger on a deal and send Omark or some sort of package elsewhere for a Dman?
I think they need to wait a year and see what they have with these guys before they start culling the forwards to fill other holes. Tambellini has job security (I think) for this year so I think he can leave that hole unfilled.
Of course they could likely pick up a team's salary dump for a lot less than Omark I would think. SO there is another option perhaps.
Rick: Barker has no history of what you're hoping for, none. Giveaways are a stat that always punishes the minutes eaters and in the case of the Oilers also punishes Gilbert for young forwards who do not offer a welcome target for the headman pass.
ReplyDeleteBDHS: I think they need to go back and undo the Lubo trade.
ReplyDeleteMaybe(hopefully)this provides the scenario that Tambellini needs to move Gagner for a solid D.
ReplyDeleteOptimistically it would be for a top two guy, but if a team counts a trade 'win' by getting the best player out of those traded, we'll have to either lower our expectations or add a second quality prospect.
Black Dog
ReplyDeleteYou beat me to it. But you're wrong, it's not "the hair", it's "the flow".
On a team with world class mulleteers, that type of pop star, messy locks WILL NOT DO.
I demand an immediate meeting between Gilbert, Smyth and Jones, and whoever their stylist is (must be the same person).
I read somewhere Smyth may have lost his flow, but if it's true it would only be to ease the lads in to what a hockey playing man's hair looks like. They can grow with him.
I AM wringing my hands and gnashing my teeth. Can you not hear the lamentations of my women?
ReplyDeleteI cannot think of poorer news to start this season than an indefinitely kiboshed Whitney. We need Corey Potter to find his inner Johnny Boychuk, or something like that.
Should we have given Staios that tryout?
Or sorry, Magnus, but you have to play D this year.
Gilbert is a very good defenseman. Is he the best, no. Is he bad, no. As LT said we're lucky to have a durable, stable defender on this team.
ReplyDeleteIf a quality top pairing guy comes along, fine. Gilbert on second pairing against a little easier opposition will do very well, especially after what he has had to do the last couple of seasons.
Spoiler - Magnus is our Byfuglien.
ReplyDeleteNHL_Oilers Edmonton Oilers
ReplyDeleteTonight’s D pairings: Sutton-Gilbert, Barker-Tulupov, Peckham- Petry, goalies are: Khabibulin & Danis
Holy cow.
If Gagner's skating has taken a step forward, I'd rather see him play for a bit over trading him.
ReplyDeleteI think the Black Dog has the right take. Ideally we'd be waiting a year before trading one of the young Fs.
FastOil said...
ReplyDeleteSpoiler - Magnus is our Byfuglien.
Minus about 60 lbs of mean.
FastOil said...
ReplyDeleteGilbert is a very good defenseman. Is he the best, no. Is he bad, no. As LT said we're lucky to have a durable, stable defender on this team.
And yet most teams have 6 or 7 guys like that.
If those pairings and starting keeper DSF posted are accurate...yowsa.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's the Oilers training camp equivalent of the Kobiyashi Maru.
Yes, those are the pairings and NK is the starter. Lordy.
ReplyDeleteWhich way is it to Bataan again?
ReplyDeleteAnd yet most teams have 6 or 7 guys like that.
ReplyDeleteRiiiight. Thanks for that moment of levity, DSF. Keep 'em coming (we know you have an inexhaustible supply).
Gilbert is a good, veteran hockey player, something the Oilers lack a reasonable quantity of, especially on D.
If I were a betting man, I would put money on the Oil tonight. In part because Tulupov will be out "to prove to those NA wussies how a 10 game suspension should be earned" and that the Flames will be laughing themselves silly over how easy it should be to score on that line-up.
operli - what Bryan Murray says when Eberle scores
DSF
ReplyDeleteA few teams might have, but every year in the playoffs we see injuries derailing teams that don't have enough depth where the injuries happen, which is a function partly of a capped league, and diluted talent with 30 teams.
I don't like aspects of Gilbert's game either, like you I feel he doesn't break the cycle well enough or clear the zone well enough when pressured.
But overall, he moves the puck the right way with stiff opposition. And he's the only one who can that is playing right now on the Oilers.
Until some guys develop or he is traded for an equivalent player, could be worse. Although it would be better to add another competent player than swap him for one.
Maybe(hopefully)this provides the scenario that Tambellini needs to move Gagner for a solid D.
ReplyDeleteIf they don't do anything by the end of Nov, then it won't happen until next year (if at all)
V3.1 sees the same things we do, its more a matter what their goals are and what kind of deals are available.
Another key is whether Hemsky is extended.
If he's traded then even thinking of trading Omark is off the table.
I think summer 2012 is when all this will happen. That and saying good bye to Khabby.
This year will be a bunch of loud bitching here about D and G with flashes of brilliance from the forward core.
If you pencil 2-3 of Lander, Pitlick and Hamilton (maybe even Matrindale), into the roster for 12/13 they will have a pile of forwards to make the 2 for 1, 3 for 1 trade for a 1D.
If Lander shows really well and Whitney is a lost cause this year, they *might* pull the trigger this year, but I think that's a long shot.
I'm looking at the bright side:
ReplyDeleteAt least we don't have to endure another of those annoying Octobers where the Oilers come out of the gate with a respectable record, only to flop in November.
Forget Klefbom or whatever the f**k his name is Lowetide - stick up a Nail watch instead, so we have something positive to set our sights on this upcoming season.
@ Fast Oil
ReplyDeleteYes, going into a season with exactly one NHL calibre defenseman is certainly better than none.
The Flames are hardly a paragon of asset management but their defensive pairings tonight:
Babchuk-Breen
Giordano-Hannan
Henry-Mikklesson
Smith
Considering they are sitting Bouwmeester, Sarich, Brodie and Butler, it kind of gives you an idea how far the Oilers have to go to become below average on defense.
Tulupov is 6'4 230lbs and shoots RH
ReplyDeleteWe might see more of Tulupov in the NHL this than we think (assuming they sign him)
Peckham and Smid are each a disater playing the right side and I really doubt they force Barker to play his off side when they really, really want him to succeed.
Mind you, Potter is RH too and he is showing well.
There's a lot more need riding on Barker now.
ReplyDeleteI think sutton is going to have a heavier work load than many expect.
ReplyDeleteKotalik and Morrison waived moments ago per Bobby Mac-that solves Buffalo's cap problems.
ReplyDeleteAny interest in Morrison? McCabe? What about our contract issues and Martindale?
ReplyDeleteNow Google wants my effin phone number too? Unbelievable.
ReplyDeleteWe have these potential options:
ReplyDeleteEric Regan 23yo 6'2" 206#
Nigel Williams 23 6'4" 226#
Chris Campoli 27 6' 190#
Shawn Belle 26 6'1" 240#
Ray Macias 25 6'2" 195#
Anton Stralman 25 6'2" 193#
Dustin Kohn 24 6'2" 200#
Nick Boynton 32 6'1" 218#
Steve Wagner 27 6'2" 200#
Most of them have a single fatal flaw in their game!
None of them can replace Whitney, however each of these is a logical option when considering Brian McCabe.
Shaone Morrison waived by Buffalo to get under the cap. He is a solid NHL defenseman with size and grit. I'd like them to pick him up, He is better then the kids and Sutton, so he can play top 6 when Whitney is healthy. tough stay at home type with experience. Can't have enough of them.
ReplyDeleteHi secondary numbers may not be great, but we need guys with NHL experience if we want any chance. He is an upgrade on chorney, he plays the PK and he is a real NHL player. He's nothing special but he is better then the alternative. If we play Chorney and Petry with the big club all year we are headed for top 5 pick again.
ReplyDeleteIf we grab someone off waivers now do they have to clear waivers again if we try to trade him at the deadline? I know the answer to that is yes while we are "in season", but does the waiver rule apply if you claim a guy before the puck drops to start the season?
ReplyDeleteIf the answer is yes,then I would rather sign a UFA defenseman..you'd be at least buying a 2nd/3rd round draft pick.
so who are available as a UFA dman. McCabe is who we hear about. Staios?McCabe would help the PP, an dhe would be a tradeable asset at the dealine. he may accept a 1 yr $2.5 mill deal.
ReplyDeleteMcCabe and Campoli are probably the biggest names...I bet Staios would sign for league minimum but bra and panties has stated the Oilers said "no thanks" earlier in the summer.
ReplyDeleteWith Whitney's injury almost certainly going to cause him to miss some games,I hope adding a D is a least being discussed by the braintrust.
Morrison shoots left, based on TOI was a third pairing player for Buffalo last season and had the second worst +/- of any of the their D.
ReplyDeleteSurely it makes more sense to see if Potter can play NHL minutes, or give Petry and Chorney development minutes until Whitney is healthy than it does to add yet another left shooting D, who is a marginal NHLer at best.
I think Whitney's playing days may soon be over. His ankle is a chronic condition now. He has had so much time off now, I can't see returning anytime soon. I can easily see him being out for the season. This isn't me being pessimistic, this is me facing reality.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, let's give Chris Campoli a try, pay him whatever, I don't care. He'll most likely be our #2 defenseman. Also, that James Wisniewski signing by Columbus is looking pretty good to me right now.
Just read the Matheson article. I have to believe it's more than scar tissue pain he's worrying about. Scar tissue pain well, never really goes away, so the tendon itself must still be sore;like I said, he's going to be out for a long time still.
ReplyDeleteKotalik and Morrison waived moments ago per Bobby Mac-that solves Buffalo's cap problems.
ReplyDeleteBoy I wish the Oilers had a billionaire owner so the GM could demote players on NHL contracts when younger, better players take their spots.
Imagine actual competition for spots on the Oilers.
Only a dream I guess.
*sigh*
Nothing on the waiver wire is interesting yet.
ReplyDeleteYes, you need put a player picked up on waivers back through waivers before trading him away in the same. (I believe the nuts and bolts of the rule is that if any other team put in a claim when you picked him up, they get a free shot at getting him)
Campoli is the best free pick up if 6 is down for the year. McCabe is done, Morrison isn't good either.
If we play Chorney and Petry with the big club all year we are headed for top 5 pick again
ReplyDeleteExactly
He has had so much time off now, I can't see returning anytime soon
ReplyDeleteI am not a doctor, but regarding major injuries and recovery time, in my experience one year is what I have seen many times, before folks are close to normal if they can be.
Whitney is still a bit off that, I bet he's feeling better in a month or two, if he doesn't try to get back too soon and goes down again.
All in favour of the Oilers signing Campoli say "I"
ReplyDeleteGiveaways are a stat that always punishes the minutes eaters and in the case of the Oilers also punishes Gilbert for young forwards who do not offer a welcome target for the headman pass.
ReplyDeleteI'll bite.
Let's pretend for a moment that there isn't a lot of inherent subjectivity in stats like hits, blocks giveaways etc.
Assume this has been done before, but here are the numbers/60min total TOI, using those "intangible" stats:
HT BLK Give Take
Gilb 2.1 5.3 2.7 1.3
Smid 5.5 4.5 2.2 0.7
Foster 4.0 3.5 1.7 0.8
Peckham 9.0 5.7 3.1 1.4
Vandy 6.5 4.1 2.5 1.4
Strud 2.9 4.3 1.1 0.5
Petry 4.0 4.1 2.7 1.3
Whitney 2.7 6.2 3.8 1.9
Chorney 4.1 5.3 3.5 1.3
Some observations:
-Whitney is a giveaway machine!Trade the bum!
-Gilbert is last in hits, 3rd in blocks, 5th in giveaways, and tied for 4th in giveaways.
-all D had more giveaways than takeaways, no surprise there.
Look at the give and take differential:
take-give/60
Gilb -1.4
Smid -1.5
Foster -0.9
Peckham -1.7
Vandy -1.1
Strud -0.5
Petry -1.3
Whitney -1.9
Chorney -2.2
Strudwick looks good by this metric, while Whitney and Chorney struggle. If we trust our eyes and assume he's not a good defensemen, one should then conclude that puck handling defensemen will usually lead in giveaways.
What I find most interesting is the takeaway stat, which of these 4 is the only one that actually would presume to measure true "defense"
By rank:
Whitney 1.9
Vandy 1.4
Peckham 1.4
Petry 1.3
Gilb 1.3
Chorney 1.3
Foster 0.8
Smid 0.7
Strud 0.5
This shows the effective, gap-closing Whitney most of us will recall. There is essentially no difference between the next 5. The 3 stragglers are, imo, the 3 most defensively inept of the group in the sense of being able to break up a play and come up with the puck. Chorney, well, hard to say.
damn, that table looked good in the window
ReplyDeleteTrying again, just the table:
ReplyDeleteHT BLK GvA TkA
2.1 5.3 2.7 1.3 Gilb
5.5 4.5 2.2 0.7 Smid
4.0 3.5 1.7 0.8 Fost
9.0 5.7 3.1 1.4 Peck
6.5 4.1 2.5 1.4 vandy
2.9 4.3 1.1 0.5 strud
4.0 4.1 2.7 1.3 petry
2.7 6.2 3.8 1.9 whit
4.1 5.3 3.5 1.3 chorn
OilLeak: the reason why tendon injuries take so long to recover is bloodflow in tendon, especially major ones, tends not to be very strong. So although what we see here is a "setback", it's not like it reflects a fundamental new injury, only that recovery times aren't very easy to predict for things like this. Other than getting a bit rusty, as long as Whitney is still ok in his brain, he should be fine provided the healing goes as expected.
ReplyDelete@wg
ReplyDeleteWhat do u call souray in the minors (not even our ahl team) for $$$$$?
Next yearor maybe even this year we'll see the same with rekhab.
The big difference is that katz went big whale hunting when he was newly crowned owner. In buffalo they made smart moves that addressed holes.
Different philosophies, same money spent.
"TONIGHT'S GAME WILL BE STREAMED LIVE ON EDMONTONOILERS.COM WITHIN THE OILERS MARKET ONLY (AB/SK/NWT/NU) DUE TO NHL REGULATIONS."
ReplyDeleteLame.
Kinger: it certainly is. I noticed that they're specifically clarifying where it will be available this time after the debacle on Thursday.
ReplyDeleteIf anyone comes up with a region-free feed, please post it. Thanks.
@delooper
ReplyDeleteYes, I'm aware of the long recovery time regarding tendon injuries. I recently had a tendon injury to my right knee as well as multiple injuries to both ankles. The knee still bothers me with some inflammation, but I still train and keep the inflammation under control.
The problem as I see it is, Whitney still can't deal with the pain even after all this time, along with his previous injuries, the timeline for his return is still a long ways off.
What do u call souray in the minors (not even our ahl team) for $$$$$?
ReplyDeleteThe end result of a pissing match.
Show me Harski on the team and Jones/Brule in the minors and I'll shut up about it.
Also,
Very good Mirtle article on advanced stats in the NHL here.
geowal, use Road gvs to eliminate some arena bias.
ReplyDeleteTulupov is 6'4 230lbs and shoots RH
ReplyDeleteYeah, and if he grows another inch, that makes him Kurtis Foster.
How does he play hockey? is what I wanna see.
B.C. has been the best team in the West past 6 weeks or so.
ReplyDeleteOh God, Rod Black agrees. I take it back.
ReplyDeletespOILer: hahahaha, you agree with Rod Black! That`s like someone telling you that your voice sounds like Mark Lee!
ReplyDelete:-)
But I took it back!
ReplyDeleteAww, nuts.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteKlinger, you can take that dress off and stop bucking for that section 8, the fact that you're an Oilers' fan guarantees that you're getting discharged for being a nut case.
ReplyDeleteLT - I'd be happy if we could get into a time machine and reverse either Lubo trade, Stoll and Greene would be a help now too. Oh well so it goes.
They're just hoping Barker rebounds to the point where he can be useful, not a chance that he is the guy that Gilbert is relying on. If he can produce on the PP and saw off against the softs they'll be happy, anything better and its a huge feather for Tambo.
mancroin - that would be the penis as opposed to the womancroin, also known as the most wonderful thing in the world.
well jeez now the guy calling Kinger Klinger deleted hi sposts so my awesome MASH reference makes no sense.
ReplyDeleteBDHS: Lubo was beautiful, like a fast car.
ReplyDeleteLT - oh no disagreement from me on Lubo. I loved him, just a terrific player.
ReplyDeleteReally like Whitney too but Ty's nickname for him, what is it, Barbaro? Too fitting.
If he can play he's great. But if he can't I'd rather we could turn that clock back wherever we need to go.
Dreamer, eh?
Well yeah, Stoll and Greene would come in mighty handy too. Good point.
ReplyDelete