The general thrust of the argument from his end: five years of awful under the Katz-Tambellini umbrella.
I wonder how many people agree with that? Five Years of pure stink with Katz as owner and Steve Tambellini as GM?
For fun, let's place things in factual timeline:
- That beauty Oiler team loses G7 SCF to Carolina.
- Chris Pronger's trade request is granted. Kevin Lowe adds prospects and picks and does not address a blueline that recently lost Pronger, Spacek and Dick Tarnstrom.
- Lowe does not pursue a long term contract with Ryan Smyth but signs everyone else.
- The first "new era" is launched with Gagner, Cogliano, Smid and others who don't yet shave.
- 07-08 Oilers win 35 games under MacT--4th in the NW, no playoffs. Team leaders include Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff, both 20 goal scorers.
- Summer 2008: Katz gets the keys to the Oilers.
- In July of 2008--after the transactions of summer have been completed, Oilers hire Steve Tambellini as new GM.
- 08-09 Oilers win 38 games under MacT--4th in the NW, no playoffs. Team leaders include Ales Hemsky and Sheldon Souray, both 20 goal scorers.
- April 2009: Tambellini fires MacT after seasons of 35 and 38 wins.
- Tambellini signs Nikolai Khabibulin to a 4-year 35+ contract.
- Summer 2009: Oilers chase Dany Heatley like he's Scarlett Johansson and this is the last night on planet earth. He says no.
- 09-10 Oilers win 27 games under Pat Quinn--5th in NW, no playoffs. This season features items like JF Jacques on the top line and Lubomir Visnovsky's puck moving ability discouraged by the coach in favor of "moving the puck up to forwards" like Jacques. Leaders include Dustin Penner, who posts 32 goals--an amazing season while lost in the second division.
- 09-10: Owner Katz suggests and agrees to rebuild.
- Taylor Hall is selected at draft.
- 10-11 Oilers win 25 games under Tom Renney, 5th in NW, no playoffs. This season features 2 20 goal scorers (Taylor Hall and Dustin Penner before he was dealt) and a plethora of young talent--especially on the wings. The Oilers have what might be the strongest collection of rookie wingers in their history--Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi and Omark. Hartikainen rising.
- RNH is selected at the draft.
The decisions that began with the waiver claim on Steve MacIntyre fall 2008 are Tambellini's. What came before--the Pronger trade, the decision to pass on Ryan Smyth's renewal, the 35 and 38 win seasons, all of the transactions and ground work took place before Tambellini's arrival.
The decisions made afterward have Katz and Tambellini behind them, with Kevin Lowe also in the room. Khabibulin, Heatley, Quinn, 27 and 25 win seasons, "rebuild" Hall and RNH are on Tambellini's watch.
We need to remember the timeline.
I am completely un-impressed with the Oiler management. In addition to your list of items, they continue to fail to address key items that you and others have mentioned several times - e.g. veteran defense, goaltending, etc.
ReplyDeleteAlso, with 27 wins they fired Pat Quinn. With 25 wins, they fire nobody...
Tampa Bay does their evaluation and higher the best person available for both the new GM and a new coach( with a very successful junior record). The Oiler management hire "friends" of Kevin Lowe and friends of Steve T.
Tampa Bay goes on to a have a very successful season in 2010/11. Oilers continue to be in the bottom of the league...
Tampa and Edmonton are not comparable situations. Yzerman took over a team who's core players had won a cup back in 2004.
ReplyDeleteOilers went to SCF game 7 in 2006. How many core players are left from the Tampa Bay 2004 team (seven years ago)?
ReplyDeleteThe one narrative that has grown into full blown "knowledge" is how Tambellini & Co. "tanked on purpose" to get Hall.
ReplyDeletePeople consistently credit the decision to rebuild with the procurement of Hall.
The year the Oilers finished last and got Hall as the consolation prize Oiler management:
-Signed STANLEY CUP WINNER AND MVP Nik Khabby to a 4 year deal
-Signed marquee coach and all around gritty/crusty coach Pat Quinn
-Chased Dany Heatley as described above
-Spent all the way to the salary cap
Somehow all of this is forgotten and people point to Hall and say "see, the rebuild is working"
I point to Hall and say "Christ were the Oilers lucky that the culmination of all of Lowe's bad personnel moves, coupled with Tambellini's horrible ones landed them a franchise player who will be a top 5 player in the league for years"
Plus the injuries and the fact that first round picks from 2002 (Niinimaki), 2003 (Pouliot) and 2004 (Schremp) did not emerge as helpful items.
ReplyDeleteI think there are two story lines worthy of a book:
1. Kevin Lowe's decision making in regard to Ryan Smyth`s contract in 2006 summer. I believe Lowe and or the EIG blamed Smyth for the SCF loss, or at least were unwilling to open the vault because of his performance.
2. The relationship between the Moreau-Staios veterans and the incoming kids.
a franchise player who will be a top 5 player in the league for years
ReplyDeletethose are high expectations for Hall.
MacGregor for GM.
4 Summers with Katz in control and 3 full seasons with Tambellini the GM, albeit this summer was only the 3rd summer he had to address his roster.
ReplyDeleteAlso agree with you that HOPE represents best group of rookie wingers in Oiler history
Oilers have been truly bad for 5 years.
We have also been witnesses to completely unbalanced rosters. This year again! We will have another patchwork D. It has taken Tambellini 3 years to get a 3C that can win face-offs. Ditto adding players to the roster that make the Oilers hard to play against. That was, I believe, his May 2009 press conference.
Many here say it doesn't matter. If we draft enough talent, no one will care. The difference is that moving forward the decisions the GM makes will enable us to be in the SCF annually. Nothing we have seen out of Lowebellini should give the fan base ease of mind that they are making smart strategic moves. Which is what we need our management group to do getting us over the SC challenge
P.S. Lest anyone say Lowe traded for a good roster for 06 SCF run, he had 6-7 FA and the core group (outside of Pronger) left.. He kept and overpaid for Roli, Pisani, Staios, Moreau AND let Smytty' walk
I'm not pissed off that we have sucked. Every team is going to suck at some point, and probably needs to.
ReplyDeleteI'm pissed off that Management didn't recognize the suckage.
This re-build should have started with the Pronger trade. Surely with the number of veteran assets lost that summer, and the exchange of vets for yourth someone could have recognized there were years of suck ahead? And that it ws time to start a proper rebuild?
This rebuild should be over by now and we should be watching Pietrangelo feeding Tavares and Stamkos, or something along those lines.
They recognize the suck and start to rebuild and there are no gaudy contracts to 3rd liners, no Penner offer sheet, probably Greene and Stoll are still here, and complementary vets like Moreau traded while their values was high.
I don't know why they delayed. I suspect because the EIG was desperate for even first round playoff money forcing Lowe to try to hold it together with bandaids and sealing wax.
I don't know if Khabby was Katz's call or not because the signing was beyond stupid. 2 years at $3M per would have sufficed. I get the impression Tambi is learning on the job.
Sorry. Something about Scarlett Johansen that makes me think of things sucking.
ReplyDeleteTOJ: PLUS he went through the free agent season without getting a veteran defenseman to replace Pronger, Spacek etc.
ReplyDeleteJuly 1, he may have tried to sign a veteran D of some quality but once he missed that chance then trading Pronger for a group that included Smid meant the blue was going to be impossibly wobbly for years to come.
The negative PR about Edmonton from Pronger, Nylander, Heatley and then later Souray. Justified or not, must have had an influence over the years in attracting quality NHLers to the team. Pronger, Nylander under Lowe's watch. Hard to say if any GM out there would have been more successful.
ReplyDeleteHere's my timeline for v3.1:
ReplyDeletev1.0 hired July 2008
-After 8 months of evaluating he decides on the tuna salad rather than the chicken salad. Mentions to everyone he sees that he is the GM of the Oilers, only 50% of the people believe him.
Spring of 2009
-has year end press conference to tell everyone he is actually in charge. Becomes v2.0
Summer of 2009
-Does all the ridiculous moves noted above
-Hilarity ensues
January 2010
-With team in last place, everyone hurt and completely cap strung he sees a likeness of Joan of Arc on his morning French Toast and takes it as a sign they need to rebuild.
-Katz agrees with Tambellini. Lowe starts to talk about making some moves to be better in the fall of 2010, Katz removes his shoe and beats Lowe with it until Lowe gets "clarity"
Summer 2010
-Has press conference where he tells everyone he is really in charge, and this time he means it.
-Buys out Nilsson, trades POS for Vandy and tries to buy out thecaptainethanmoreau but Howson in a fit of utter stupidity picks him off waivers.
-Gets dubbed v3.0 and actually starts effecting change
-Signs and trades for a plethora of players, not one is an actual NHL player.
-Hilarity ensues with another last place finish.
Spring 2011
-Trades Penner for 2 picks and a prospect.
-Now that Tambellini is making larger moves that materially affect the future of the Oilers (besides jettisoning flotsam and jetsam) he is dubbed v3.1
Summer 2011
-For the first time since he was hired 3 years ago, Tambellini signs an actual NHL player to fill a need on the team, gets a good cap number in exchange for a slightly too long term.
That's it.
3 years and he has added 1 player to help.
Everyone seems to give him credit for Hall, RNH and the other kids coming up, but that's incorrect.
1 Actual NHL player, Eric Belanger.
To be fair he seems to have created a very good system and organization to develop the younger players and that will pay dividends for years, but when looking at actual NHL players its 1 in 3 years.
I think you missed an important moment. When Khabibulin went down and the Oilers were left with DD and JDD, he stated that they were not going to go out and get a goalie to fill the void.
ReplyDeleteThat was when we were informed that the team was diving for first overall. Now, I admit that at the time I didn't agree with the dive, but in retrospect, it was a much better decision than getting a mediocre goalie and finishing 25th overall.
Since that moment, it has been hard to judge Tambellini because the quesiton always remains as to his intentions. Over the past two years, it is clear that the team was seeking first overall. So, when we blame Tambellini for getting Foster or Fraser or for not getting a defensive centre, we need to consider that he was filling spots with mediocre talents without improving the team.
Similarly, when Renney is not bothering to match lines after a lifetime of doing so as a coach - what message does that send. To me it suggests that the goal was something other than winning (perhaps player development or just simple losing).
Now, with that said, what a great excuse - "I finished last because I wanted to" would be a great option to have for a job. This certainly would make my job easier. My kids would love this. "Dad, I know I got an F, but given that this was my goal and I managed to reach it, I think I deserve some kind of reward"
With that said, there was a time (prior to the goalie decision) when the goal was to compete. That was the Katzloweballini era (ST1.0) when we don't really know if Tambellini was in charge or not. When he later announced that he NOW had the authority to actually make decisions, he insinuated that he may have not been the driving force behind the Heatley chase or the Khabi signing.
So, that is a bevy of excuses for poor quality decisions and is one of the reasons that some people (including myself) are apologists for Tambellini. We see things like the re-establishing of the AHL team and the significant improvements in player development (they actually call them now) and somewhat believe that there may be a long term grand plan in place.
With all of that noted, there is the dumping of Brodziak, a young inexpensive player that would be a good fit for a long rebuild. Even by the 'last place plan' this was a bad move.
I think that many of the critisisms are deserved, but I think that the context of the overall plan needs to be considered. If the team wants to finish last, I don't understand why the GM should get a better goalie. The criticism should be based upon the overall plan (i.e. finishing last), not upon the elements of the plan that are actually working to achieve the goals of the plan.
At some point (this year or next), the Oilers will need to be clearly competing to win. At that point there will be nothing to hide behind. I for one, hope that the Oilers and Tambellini are successful - otherwise, its a new GM and a new rebuild.
Over the past two years, it is clear that the team was seeking first overall.
ReplyDeleteThis is what I'm talking about.
2 years ago the signed Khabby, OTC, chased Heatly and spent to the cap.
Those are not moves of people chasing 1st over all.
I point to Hall and say "Christ were the Oilers lucky that the culmination of all of Lowe's bad personnel moves, coupled with Tambellini's horrible ones landed them a franchise player who will be a top 5 player in the league for years"
ReplyDeleteYou are correct. The team was trying to compete that year and were in last place 1/3 of the way through the year. It was not 'the plan' at the point to be in that position, it was abject failure.
WG - as noted in my comment just above - the team was trying to compete during that first summer of Steve (ST1.0) and totally sucked. So, to be more accurate - at the point when the team found themselves in last place and then saw Khabi go down, the plan became to finish last overall. Tambellini suggested that that point that he had not really been in charge and suggested that Khabi and Heatley were driven by Katz and Lowe. We don't need to believe him, but that is what he suggested.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy: you do what you can. Spending to the cap didn't do the trick, so...
ReplyDelete"Rebuild" is a magical word. It removes all responsibility for all of the mistakes you made, and for any poor results you make in the future.
ReplyDeleteOiler management have not looked after their assets very well. They like quantity over quality and have placed more value on talent at the price of work ethic and results.
the team has too many 6's and 7's, they are filled to the max with them.
You don't want to take 6's and 7's when you are trading away 8's and 9's, yet the Oilers continually did that.
To many incomplete players with overlapping skill sets, too many holes.
I think they intentionally drilled holes in the boat the last few years to ensure a last place finish, and that this is the first year they are trying to win, if half heartedly.
You could argue the Penner signing all day from either side, but throw in the 4 lost #1 draft picks ( and who they turned out to be ) and it doesnt look that great.
I wish I could see a better future. But I don't see how the Oilers are going to keep all of their young talent intact long enough to be contenders.
When their entry level contracts expire and they hit RFA status the horde of vultures will descend and offer sheet everyone to stupidly high contracts.
They are supposed to be working towards winning now, the team doesn't have the luxury of waiting two more years.
It's hard, nay, impossible to imagine why any top rate NHL player would want to come to the Oilers, and alternatively be subjected to the "good old boys" management of Lowe/MacT/the trainers(sic)...and the inevitable back stabbing that is the hallmark of everything that is K. Lowe.
ReplyDeleteKhabibulin and Souray were over rated, second tier UFA's, who were grossly overpaid, then dumped on by this gang of dynasty second raters-cum-'great players' due to playing with the Gretzky's etc.
Even Pronger was a risk pick, having come out of major knee surgery.
Fast forward to now: What about the current medical staff? Does Lombardi have a valid point? Coz if he does, this team is f.u.c.k.e.d.
Never believe anything you hear coming out of Rexall Place is as good advice as there is.
Tambellini doesn't seem to do much, but at least he's not a spiteful, bitter douche ala K. Lowe.
The success or failure of Tambellini is yet to be determined. He has acquired a lot of assets through the draft, and while it is exciting, I think it is only fair to say Hall is a sure thing.
ReplyDeleteThere is a lot of talent, but no track record, and still a significant question of balance. Ask the Sedins if unique ability is enough to win it all and put the puck in the net when the chips are down.
The bones look like they're in place, but a lot of well taken timely decisions remain. Has Tambellini been stalling to promote the rebuild, or is he indecisive?
As for signing Khabi, it is a stretch for anyone to suggest that was a reasonable fix for goal, term or not. He had not played well in a while, had various health issues that were very likely known around the league - it is a pretty insular community.
His signing was a cover for the slide, one that likely holds water to the league, but not to any fan who has followed the game. Roli's are pretty rare players, and Khabi's failure shouldn't be much of a surprise.
Tambellini suggested that that point that he had not really been in charge and suggested that Khabi and Heatley were driven by Katz and Lowe. We don't need to believe him, but that is what he suggested.
ReplyDeleteI'm inclined to believe that.
@spOILer
ReplyDeleteCouldn't agree more. For a decade this was a 7-10 place team and the frustration for me was mounting annually. When they finally decided to rebuild, it was a happy day in my household, although I couldn't help but scream for days "YOU'RE 5 YEARS TOO LATE!!!!!!"
The Pronger trade should have started a rebuild, but instead we spent another 5 years wondering the desert. This time as a 10-15 placed team.
Dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb.
Missed this in my timeline:
ReplyDeleteSummer 2011
-After getting Belanger, the Oiler's forwards are a group that can actually compete for a playoff spot, but the D and G are not there.
-Signs Barker who has been unable to compete against the dregs of the league and they slot him in the top 4 waaaaaay above his established NHL level.
-Doesn't sign Dman who can actually play in the top 4 without stretching credibility.
I don't mind the Barker gamble if you are slotting him in the 5-6 pair and trying him on the PP (either 1 or 2)
The problem is that they are banking on him playing way better than he ever has.
Tambellini had a chance to actually make this team somewhat competitive with the addition of a real top 4 Dman and he chose not too.
I can't buy they are "tanking" again. There is too much talk among the players about playoffs and being sick of sucking.
If the Oilers start the season with the same Dmen as they have now, then I think the count down to v3.1 getting punted can start.
Not improving an obviously flawed D is letting down the rest of the team.
General question:
ReplyDeleteSo when Tambo and Lowe suggest this is going to be a 5-6 year rebuild, what's the timeline for that? Are we too assume the start is 2010 and the tank job ends in 2015 or so?
What's a reasonable timeline for this rebuild and what progression would make the educated fans that post here happy?
Thanks in advance for the education gentlemen.
Somewhere you missed after the trading of Smyth (Lowe said we are goinng to rebuild) we sign Souray to a monster contract, than a couple months later we sign Penner to healthy contract giving up a first, second, and third.
ReplyDeleteSo much for the rebuild, Lowe was spinning his wheels after these moves and went from rebuilding (trading smyth) to contending in a matter of 3 months. That was his dismiss.
Death by Misadventure: I'd say playoffs or close in 2013 spring, playoffs 2014+ and a deep run before I'm dead.
ReplyDeleteIts a little unfair to judge Tambo on the last two years as its clear that he was just filling spots when it came to freeagents, acquiring picks and rebuilding the farm team.
ReplyDeleteThis year is more of the same. I think Tambo doesn't want to finish last but would be pretty happy to be in the lottery again.
Tambo has made it clear that his philosophy is that high end free agents will not come to EDM. Big names that are traded for soon request a trade.
He has this pounded into his DNA by Heatley, Cole and Vishnovsky. He got turned down by Chris Neal, Boogaard and others - even when he offered more money. You can bet he has been rejected in efforts to bring in guys at the deadline and on July 1 many more times and we just don't know about it.
As he said in his manifesto, he has said fuck that, they are going to build from within. They fired KP and put MBS in (maybe that was luck, maybe not).
The Oilers are now in one of the strongest positions thay have been in 20 years. They have a strong farm system. Not only have they had good drafts but they have added in guys like House, Fedun, the 2 nasty Finns, Tremblay.
Tambo clearly covets grit and tenacity and has made this a priority too.
As I have said before I think Tambo's greatest asset is his patience. He is willing to wait until his farm system develops. It is going to take a while, especially on D, but its easy to see a pretty good defence developing just based on the assets on hand (including the minors).
So I guess you can look at the Heatley chase, the NK signing, and the last place finishes as say we can't trust Tambo going forward.
I prefer to look at these last few years as an education for Tambo. I don't see him trading for someone soft but talented like POS again. He is not going to chase the whale again for a while. He is going to rely on his farm system and wait for this team to develop.
It will take and while and they will be lots of losses again, but I like where this team is going.
Its a little unfair to judge Tambo on the last two years as its clear that he was just filling spots when it came to freeagents, acquiring picks and rebuilding the farm team.
ReplyDeleteNo.
2 years ago he chased Heatly, signed Khabby, OTC and spent to the cap.
Stop with the "intentional tanking for 2 years" thing.
I'll give you last year, but not 2 years ago. They tried as hard as they could and finished 30th.
Tanking this year means he has no clue how good his forwards are and signing Belanger while dumping Cogliano is opposite of tanking.
Also missed:
ReplyDeleteTraded King (maybe Ace?) - Lubo for Jack - Whitney, but unlike the rest of the GM's failed to notice the card was dog eared at the corners and had a cigarette burn.
I remember watching a game last year when the sportsnet guys said that some ridiculous number of Oilers were first round draft picks. They seemed to think this was a good thing but lost on them was that all of these wonderful draft picks were competing for last place in the league.
Of course, the reality is that we have been the dumping ground for failing or injury-prone first round draft picks for years. When you get a reputation for certain things, all the guys come a knockn'.....
Very interesting.
ReplyDeleteI do think there's a grey area between the Oilers fans taking the few NHL quality acquisitions on this season's roster as meaning that management is trying for the playoffs and the actuality of what Lowe/Tambellini have planned for this season.
Considering the state of GK and defense, it could be a "if we're better, great. But another low pick would be nice"...
Tanking this year means he has no clue how good his forwards are and signing Belanger while dumping Cogliano is opposite of tanking.
ReplyDeleteI said they don't want to finish last again. A move from 30th to 25th would require them moving from 62 to 80 pts. Plus Belanger can be seen as a move for not just this year but the next three.
If I am a cautious GM, I wait until the forwards prove they are ready. They already assumed too much out of the kid line a few years ago. It makes sense not to do it again.
We know already he's not a cutting edge GM, but not addressing the goaltending this summer is just silly.
ReplyDeleteIn a couple of years when he's interviewing to get back into the NHL game, here's hoping he has a reasonable answer to "why didn't you buy better G insurance in 2011 summer?"
5 years of stink ?? ... Jay Feaster thinks it's ten ... yikes !
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calgaryherald.com/sports/Flames+deliver+candid+responses+during+forum/5342882/story.html
LT:
ReplyDeleteWhich do you think is more likely, feeling free to substitute some other option if you don't think any of the following are adequate answers?
-That Tambellini has assessed the goaltending situation, and decided it's fine as is for a playoff run? -That it's questionable, but ultimately worth a gamble?
-Or that not addressing the goaltending is the best way to artificially hold hthe team back for one more draft?
speeds: I think they probably had a plan re: goaltending improvement this summer but it didn't happen.
ReplyDeleteThe fallback was probably one of the goalies who went early in free agency and the trade options weren't strong.
I think they'll waste very little time on NK if he can't play this fall and would expect that a young goalie (from LAK, VAN or WAS) will arrive before or at the deadline to tandem with Dubnyk.
The alternative is another mind blowing ontract. I don't believe they'll do it.
Agree w/ WG, Oil have tried to tank....once, last year. They have, though, made some puzzling decisions. The acquisition of Fraser to fill a role he had no ability to fill is beyond strange. Particularly at a time that, presumably, Chicago needed to keep young productive "cheap" players.
ReplyDeleteAgree with Ducey that the Oil have the strongest farm system in last 20 years. Suggest best ever!! They still need a number of players to develop better than their draft positions: MPS,Eberle (who will both do so) and Marincin, Hamilton, Musil, Bunz, Petry. If they do so we will have a chance at being an elite team.
Disagree that FA won't sign here. They won't sign here to play with a terrible roster. Why would anyone. Long travel, cold winters and, most importantly, bad team. Good team...changes everything.
Belanger signing is a perfect example of Tambellini as GM. Good player. Fits a longstanding need. I like the signing. He will also be too old to perform that role when we, hopefully, get to be an elite team. When we are good wouldn't it be nice to have a 31 year old Eric Belanger not a 36 year old EB.
Our Gm will also have to assess our prospects and identify which ones to keep and which to use as trade bait to add a necessary piece or two. That is not something I am looking forward to seeing Tambellini do
Outside looking in, there's no way to be certain, but I would tend to disagree with the idea that they planned to improve the goaltending*, based on where two goalies ended up, neither of which really constitutes any sort of proof.
ReplyDelete(1) Emery - he ended up going to CHI on a tryout. If the Oilers offered him a 1.3 mil, one year, one way deal, I have a hard time believing he wouldn't have signed it, though again there's no way for me to know that with certainty.
(2) Vokoun - the music stopped and he was without a chair. If the Oilers were really looking to upgrade or improve their goaltending, once they saw how the goaltending situation was playing out, why wouldn't Vokoun have been willing to sign a 2 year 8 mil deal with the Oilers? True, not a contender, but is signing with the Oilers instead of a contender in WSH worth passing on a guaranteed 2nd year at 6.5 mil? Could be, but I would be pretty surprised.
*Of course, that could well have been the plan, I'm just talking about looking/guessing from the outside.
Speeds
ReplyDeleteNot sure the Oil management would want to tell Katz the bad news that he was eating 2 years Khabby's contract. At least not in July. I know I would not want to tell my boss that $7.5 million mistake
WG is putting on a clinic in this thread... but the Oilers getting out a narrative that has nothing to do with reality is nothing new.
ReplyDeleteThe one thing missing from your big time line there LT, is directly after going to the SCF and making money hand over fist... the Oilers entered 06-07 with $5,000,000 of cap space and Ladislav Smid being gifted a top 4 spot in the D.
Their claim?
They needed the space for "moves at the deadline."
The Oilers spinning of the media (which I rightfully or wrongfully credit Laforge with, mostly because he's a an asshole who will lie through his teeth for a toonie) hasn't changed one bit; because they're doing the exact same thing and twisting the narrative in the fish wraps. They intentionally sucked for one year, and it was god awful to watch.
TOJ:
ReplyDeleteThe mistake has been made, pretending it hasn't does not change reality. Tambellini's job is to improve the Oilers*, not to knowingly ignore holes to protect his appearance and future employment. If you make a mistake, you make a mistake, it's pretty much unavoidable in that job. So, take steps to correct it.
Tambellini was been willing to correct his mistake with O'Sullivan. Does it make more sense to think he legitimately still believes Khabi is a viable option, or that he believes Khabi is done but thinks it more important to protect his job than to do his job properly? I'll give him more credit that that, given the information I have.
*There are many opinions, I'm sure, regarding exactly what "improving" the Oilers might mean; management may think that the best way to improve the club long term is to be terrible this year. To me, that's a bit different than having been given, from ownership, the directive of icing the best club you can, and consciously not filling a hole you know exists so as to obscure the merits of your previous decisions.
speeds: My sense on NK is that 3.1 really had/has little choice but to play it exactly like it has been this summer.
ReplyDeleteYou have the coach in essence calling him out that (last season's performance unacceptable) coming off the previous year where you publically chose to call him your MVP. To off him in light of eating Vish's mistake on Souray was too much even for Katz in light of everything else.
I don't think he had a choice...which makes how this team starts the season a critical time for 3.1. If they bomb...and that is a possibility...he's in trouble. But then, will Vish be put back in charge?
It could also be that he's been given a budget, and Khabi is a part of that budget. And that he thinks Khabi isn't good enough, but for whatever reason Katz has told him to ride with what he has for one more year.
ReplyDeleteSpeeds:
ReplyDeleteWouldn't they just buy out Boozy if that was the case? Cap hit is the same either way, but it would save them real dollars.
The NK case is extremely likely to:
ReplyDelete1. see him injured
2. Danis in EDM
3. NK in Phoenix getting better
4. having NK comeback just in time to cough up some L's somewhere in games 55-82.
All of that is LIKELY. Betting against THAT is what ST is doing.
*There are many opinions, I'm sure, regarding exactly what "improving" the Oilers might mean; management may think that the best way to improve the club long term is to be terrible this year. To me, that's a bit different than having been given, from ownership, the directive of icing the best club you can, and consciously not filling a hole you know exists so as to obscure the merits of your previous decisions.
ReplyDeleteThat's the most frustrating part. The incongruency of the decisions.
Punt Cogliano, add Belanger is a good decision that will help to win.
Keeping Khabby as option 1A and not getting a top 4 D are bad decisions that will help lose.
WTF are they thinking?
PDO:
ReplyDeleteThey might be hoping that he has a good season, and MAYBE they can move him at the deadline or next summer. Tough to say what they think about Khabibulin.
I think the best explanation for the handling of the goaltending this summer, assuming they are trying to get as many points as they can this year, is that they either think:
(a) Khabibulin is a good goalie who just had a bad year for all the various reasons, and they expect him to rebound next season
(b) Dubnyk is for real, and maybe they expect Khabibulin to be somewhat better but that's isn't such a big deal in a backup role playing 25 games this season assuming Dubnyk takes over the starter's role.
We might find it surprising that they have that kind of continued confidence in Khabibulin, but they did sign him to begin with, there is reason to believe they simply think a lot more of him than does the Oilogosphere.
WG said...
ReplyDeleteKeeping Khabby as option 1A and not getting a top 4 D are bad decisions that will help lose.
What evidence do we have that there was a choice? That a decision could be made? Rumour has it Vokoun turned the Oil down for substantially more money. No idea on Emery, but he could easily have preferred a shot with a club contender, knowing if it doesn't work out he will have options elsewhere as injuries arise.
I don't think there's any way, given NK's performance lst year and Renney's comments indicating the org is aware and the plethora of contracts at F, that the Oilers haven't tried to change their goaltending solution.
I think it's still too early to pass judgement on ST at this time . Evaluating a GM's work is not like a coach's. In 08/09 he inherited a bad team,that i don't think that anything could have saved at that time. Rather than try to continue on with this sorry group of players,that weren't anything remotely resembling a TEAM. He started the painful process of getting rid of the dead wood, and trying to start over from scratch. Looking to eventually build a new core of the team. One that could develop together, and hopefully create a team bond that has been missing here for a while now.Then came 09/10. There were some efforts to make improvements, though unsucessful. So they rolled with what they had, and by mid-season when everything started going south. A top 2 draft pick started looking a lot more attainable than the playoffs.With Hall/Seguin sitting right there for the taking,you can't really blame them at that point.Getting a potential franchise player would fit in perfect with thier plan.I think it was exactly at that time that they realized they would have enough high-end talent coming down the pipeline, that they could officially proclaim this "rebuild" and start building a team around this new core of youth.I think they then went into 10/11 with good intentions at first. Hoping for a good record,but not willing to do anything that would interfere with developing this new core of youth. Then when all the veterans started dropping like flies, they used the opportunity to bring more of thier youth up to evaluate at the NHL level. Also to continue more team bonding with this young group of the future. All of this would have fit in perfectly with the plan, while also taking a shot at another first overall pick.Now with that secured and the group a year older and a year closer to coming to fruition.It is not hard to see where this is going.Now this year i think oiler brass is more serious about trying to become much more competitive,and i think they even believe there is a chance they could end up in that 7-12 cluster that always seems to be fighting for those last 2 spots every year.Although again, i think for this year developing the youth is going to be the priority. That is why they are not addressing the G/D issues at this time. I believe they really want to give DD a chance to see if he can take the starter role, and accell in it. If it does work out, then NK with his experience could still be very good in the mentor/backup role. You never know,maybe he can still be an effective backup, as the lighter workload might help his aging body to not get run down. As far as the D goes,they also have some potentially good prospects that i'm sure they want to keep some roster space open for. To continue and maybe even accelerate thier development a bit. Which as i've said is the priority still for this year. Now i think if this group does overachieve and are in a legitimate position to make a playoff spot. That's when the plan may shift a little. If the current G/D's are getting the job done, and a big part of the hypothetical success,then great. If they are still poor (as most here suggest) then that is when ST will be in a position that he must address those needs and take his best shot at improving the team for the stretch run.If however the oilogosphere majority is right, and they are long out of it then at least they had a good chance to look at the Dubnyk's and Smid's and petry's. Even Barker. He is a young D-man that showed tonnes of promise at one time. He had a good rookie year with Chi, despite not getting the cherry mins. Could you blame the guy if he felt a little less than inspired moving from Chi to the Wild (yuck) cont.
ReplyDeleteAnyhow i think the whole oiler brass is on board with the plan as i've said. If it goes bad this year, it will still fit in the plan. However if that is the case then next year all bets are off. ST will be on the hot seat from the start of the year.Then you will be able to start judging him by his moves,and how he improves the team. unfortunately for all of you calling for his head, i believe he still gets the leeway to stick to the plan for the 11/12 season. If the team isn't looking like a playoff contender by new years of 2013, then that's when he can be proclaimed a failure, and Katz will probably be thinking of stripping down the whole management regime. I think that's where the timeline is for tambalowerenn team, and they probably know it. if you're looking for something big to happen this year, it probably won't. so i suggest if you're a true fan than just sit back and enjoy the ride. whether we suck or not, there should still be plenty of exciting hockey provided by our young stars.there is also the chance we may be witnessing the beginning of something very special.I assure you next year will be when management has to put up or get out.From what i've seen i think they are on track and when mid 12/13 gets here,they will have positioned themselves nicely to be a playoff contender not just for that year but many more to come. At least that is what ST is banking on,and what he will be ultimately judged on
ReplyDeleteWoodguy is one of my favorite guys here, but on this issue, we find ourselves on opposite sides of the fence. I think the difference is that Woodguy is better at pretending Bettman doesn't exist than I am. Nice skill if you have it.
ReplyDeleteThe NHL has set up the draft system as a convex objective function. There's a reward for winning, and there's a reward for losing, which means that losing is actually neither winning nor losing, but falling through the cracks. I use the word "losing" in the larger sense.
Sports leagues are in the business of selling hope. Harder than it sounds if your sport is a zero sum game. Bettman is in the business of creating hope where logic says there shouldn't be any. He's had mixed success. The zero sum problem was jiggered with the loser point (notice the concept of "losing" becoming slightly more muddy?) The shoot-out is more or less a coin flip, which advantages the side with less legitimate hope. Rules change in the post season. Moral: any Cinderella can win, because the team built to succeed in the regular season is light on Enduro fenders.
The draft is the biggest inversion of all: losers are winners, wine of hope from water of despair. This is Bettman's miracle. He's essentially taking the sport out of sport, because sport is a harsh mistress.
Every team of the cusp of suck and a bolt or two of injustice on the injury front is incented to play loser bingo. Every management group has the option of playing the "we were trying to lose all along" card. The Oilers did not invent this. La Région d'appellation central office. Sure, it kind of stinks from the fan perspective. Bettman wants it that way. On the management side of the league, happy excuses flow like champagne. Another name for this is "cost certainty". When management was actually competing, they were writing an epilogue to "Guns, Germs, and Steel". Someone had to stop them. Bettman rended his shirt and it was done.
I think some of these excuses showed up at the doors of Oiler management like a complementary black limousine.
I also tend to attribute specific mistakes to specific parties more than Woodguy. EIG trashed the development system. Kevin has anger management issues: he tends to roll for extremes. His best extreme backfired and skipped town. I don't think it was his fault. His worst extremes stuck around like a dirty shirt.
Katz's first idea was to sell hope by having a star player who could also be used to promote his arena development. The player who showed up for star-lite salary was more of a question mark. Other players who had buckets of money thrown at them (from all accounts) found happiness elsewhere.
I would say Katz burned two years taking the reigns. By the time Tambi was given an achievable plan (build from within) the damage was done. Build from within is a slow process, but two first overall draft picks is hard to fault. Plus many of our recent high drafts are actually tracking as high drafts. That could have gone a lot worse.
It's not the convention in sports for the owner to step up and say "it was me screwing things up behind the scenes". Hockey code is that only people you can fire take responsibility, whether they were pulling the strings or not.
(cont.)
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ReplyDeleteI was reading about calibrated probability assessment earlier today. The problem goes both ways: amateurs don't give themselves enough credit, domain specialists give themselves too much. You can't lay the whole thing at Tambi's feet.
Tambi has another nice, built-in excuse: none of bargain players want to play here at a bargain price. As fans we can't do much about it, because it's not league policy to publish contract offers that the player refuses. Bettman could change this in the interest of transparency and logic, or he could keep things the way they are in the interest of obfuscation and hope. Any takers?
Some of Tambi's moves have been extremely puzzling. We don't know the whole story. But clearly even if we don't know the whole story, if he messes up the competitive window on the current cluster, it's his neck on the line, regardless of who pulled the strings.
Many fans wish we had been operating within narrow circles of outward accountability a long time ago. But the truth is that accountability does not go all the way to the top, so accountability only runs skin deep at best--unless you believe that every lynched coach or GM received just deserts. You can't fire the owner without switching allegiance to another sport, and really meaning it, which as Canadians is not in our gene pool, but you can always teach a frozen dog new tricks, I suppose.
The incentive structure for a sports league is to reduce accountability. That's why I find the discussion at Lowetide so compelling. Exactly how thick is the curtain between what you can see, and what you can't? Where precisely in a modern world bent on sabotaging authenticity does homerism leave off and cynicism begin?
Even if we purge Mr Dithers, the thick curtain remains.
If you want to slant the rules toward sport, that's easy to do. Three points for a win in regulation, one point for a win after regulation, and zero freaking points for LOSING, as god intended. This penalizes boring, low scoring teams (who will more often split one point after a low scoring tie) and favours high-scoring, talented teams (it's hard to be tied after eleven goals are scored).
As much as I agree with Woodguy that losing ought to be losing, I just can't bring myself to agree that we actually live in that world as presently constituted.
Lowe goes after Hossa, tells media, doesn't work. Tambs goes after Heatley, tells media, also doesn't work. Wonder how much of that was Lowe.
ReplyDeleteI don't get this 'Oil Change' series. You're not guaranteed a cup by tanking and getting high picks. He should try to balance the team.
Katz wants a rebuild, also an arena for plenty of money. That's when he'll start spending. He's hiding now but my guess, post arena, he buys some stars. You'll see the batmobile all over town.
Do we really need to give any real credit for rebuilding the minor and development system to GM X?
ReplyDeleteRight when Katz bought the team I was pumped (in fact made a bet that by the 2014-2015 season Oilers would be in conference finals, literally due to money being available to have an actual minors system.).
This was an obvious gaping wound that had to be fixed. It was the biggest issue with EIG. They just didn't have the money to do it while icing a fairly cap high team as well.
I say the credit for the development system should go to Katz's money. I don't think Lowe enjoyed having his prospects spread all over he just had no choice.
Only 5?
ReplyDeleteAnother thing I read today: Which company is biggest? A primer on corporate valuation.
ReplyDeleteIt makes me think about how Bettman is in charge of a lot of physical plant. New arenas are clocking in at $400 million these days, as confirmed by this dubious time waster: Can you name the NHL Arenas By Construction Cost?
A bad management group can tank a team for half a generation, the younger generation finds other things to do, the next thing your franchise is on the jet to Winnipeg--only there aren't enough Winnipegs to play this game indefinitely.
If you're trying to convince some sleepy burg to pony $400 million, you definitely want to sell the Burgmeisters the idea they can sleep soundly at night knowing that the franchise won't skip town before the mortgage is paid, even if present ownership falls in love with a series of broad-shouldered coke machines lacking finesse. (Enter Bettman's coke addiction bail-out, in two easy payments.)
Russ Roberts on Econtalk prattles endlessly about the need for failure (of the disbanding variety) in maintaining the capitalist dynamic. Once a city invests $400 million in a new hockey arena, failure is not an option, certainly not a good one. And you get all the things that follow when failure is not an option, as exemplified by the recent banking crisis. There weren't many losers on the banking side of the crisis: some Bear Sterns creditors in Asia (mostly).
This little game of "spot the loser" keeps getting harder and harder. The losers weren't the people who failed.
Andrew Beal had the notion that when you're playing with money you can't afford to lose, it's a liability to nerve or talent. He failed to prove his case, but not for lack of trying.
The sad fact (relative to the present thread) is that civic life is a lot more risk averse than high-stakes poker players. If Bettman believes he has to take the sport out of hockey to keep arena construction flowing, then that's what we'll end up with.
It's peculiar, because the authenticity of sport is based entirely on the notion that losing is losing, and winning is winning. When every team has hope all the time, there's no remaining reason to show up at all. But not enough hope (or the wrong climate) is fatal, too.
The sport in sports business edges into the spousal system: can't live with it, can't live without it. Isn't that what we were trying to escape? In the spousal system, sometimes biting your tongue is winning and lashing eloquent is losing. This feels backwards. Does a poignant moment save or stave? It's all very confusing.
So we go to the rink where winners are winners and losers are losers--or so we think--and where bad performance on the ice reflects badly on management performance off the ice, as Woodguy decrees. But reality is increasingly Hokey Pokey.
At this juncture, the Al Gore lead me to a pastor undertaking to exegete the Hokey Pokey.
What if the Hokey Pokey is What it is all About?
Take a bow, Al, that makes me laugh. Long ago I had a seminarian GF who preyed upon my exegetical bent when confronted with her most perplexing course work. I coached her "take a position, any position, and never let them see the whites of your eyes". Worked pretty good.
I must admit, there was far more history to this song than I ever imagined. But with that background in mind, we should be able to exegete the heck out of this simple little tune.
In your dreams, Friar Tuck, in your dreams.
WTF are they thinking?
ReplyDeleteI think the plan this year is to improve a bit, but not sacrifice anything to do so. It has been suggested that this is a deep draft with a chance to pick up really good players through the top 10. I think the GM will be happy with a 23rd place finish. So, fix some holes, but don't worry too much about that nasty goaltending situation.
Tambellini would probably like one more first overall, but probably realizes that the fans, and more importantly, the players, need a sense of improvement. A .500 record would feel pretty good, but still get you a decent draft pick.
Also, if Khabibulin rebounds (big if), then you have the opportunity to perhaps dump him for a pick. Address the goaltending situation next summer when making the playoffs becomes the goal.
I don't know if that is the plan, but it is a possible plan.
As I see it these are the scenarios:
ReplyDelete1. At some debatable point in time Katz blessed a complete rebuilding of the franchise, and as publicly stated, top level talent was sought through what management saw as the only possible route - the draft.
By definition this entails a low finish. This explains the highly questionable decisions by the GM and coach. The team must be seen by the league to be making an effort (other than that of tanking) to avoid punishment, and the signing a few NHL players yearly, regardless of suitability, while not line matching a rookie team meet that requirement apparently.
2. The management is highly inept.
3. Both 1 and 2 are true.
I have little patience left for having a mediocre or bad team, which I feel is unnecessary for more than brief periods, so I have to pick 1.
My gut tells me a smarter GM and Pres see Tavares and Stamkos coming up ( with a few years notice ) and pull the plug a lot sooner. No, not our boys. Too much pride?