Friday, September 23, 2011

One Dozen Opinions


Lots of chatter about the Oiler loss last night, I don't think any pre-season game is worth getting bothered over. Perhaps the Oilers will use it as impetus to tighten up the group earlier, but even then they don't play a game that counts for more than two weeks. In the Bettman NHL, preseason is a marathon. I do have some opinions on some players, though.
  1. Devan Dubnyk: If the Oilers are paying attention, he's the starter. I suggested in the RE series that NK would get 10 games this season and that seems about right. Oilers management appears to believe the elderly Russian can turn back time and there's no harm in wheeling him out a couple of times in preseason. But let's not kid ourselves: Dubnyk is the best goalie here, followed by Danis. That  is (imo) going to be this year's tandem.
  2. Taylor Hall: I've decided to call him "Chance." Hall has so much talent and can beat the other guy so many ways it is only a matter of time before we're enjoying one of the NHL's best players. Did you see that rocket shot that hit the post? Me either.
  3. Lennert Petrell: I thought he showed very well last night, and has excellent PK instincts. Petrell might have a real shot at an end of the roster slot, something we also discussed during the RE series.
  4. Tom Gilbert: Steady hand, plays all three disciplines (EV, PP, PK) but Oiler fans don't think he's a top 4 option. Meanwhile, the other defensemen dealt horribly with the pressure applied by Canucks forwards, but all we hear is about Gilbert's poor play. Sheesh.
  5. Alex Plante: Skating is still an issue after all this time. I think he's a better fighter and he does seem to have calmed down under pressure, but he can't get to pucks in a timely fashion. Back in the days of clutch and grab Plante could have had a career, and I see the Sun has an article on him saying he's developing on a reasonable timeline but that '07 draft--with three first rounders--doesn't look like it will deliver an NHL defender from the first round.
  6. Jeff Petry: I like his mobility and he'll improve as the sorties keep coming. Really, I don't know that the Oilers have the depth and quality to send him back. He had some tough moments a night ago, but there's a player here. 
  7. Sam Gagner: Looked faster than a year ago and almost scored early and had chances after that to score but couldn't cash. I'm genuinely surprised at how many people still consider Gagner completely unproven--he's survived playing for horrible, horrible teams and looks primed to step up as the group improves. Coach Renney even compared him to Doug Gilmour the other day, something smart posters on this blog pointed out three years ago.
  8. Tyler Pitlick: Interesting player. He ran a few people and had some chances last night, I don't know how long he'll be in OKC but would guess at least one full season. The Oilers are sending people down today, suspect Pitlick might be on the bus to the airport.
  9. Linus Omark: Wasn't effective (I thought) last night but he's a beauty. I do worry that the Oilers will fly Hartikainen and flog Omark and lose a very good player in the exchange. Call me crazy, but losing organizations do just those things.
  10. Darcy Hordichuk: I thought he played well, hitting everything in sight and holding his own in the fights. Not my favorite player type, but he can take and make a pass; I think Oiler fans will love him.
  11. RNH: Impressed again, he got knocked off the puck but that's going to happen. He's done at least one thing to show he can turn over the puck in a good way (stick lift and then a quick pass to 14) and made a nice, simple feed to Eberle for the solo cash.
  12. Jordan Eberle: in all the fuss and bother over the lottery wins, it is sometimes easy to forget this kid from the flatlands. When Eberle plays, they'll sell you the whole seat but you'll only need the edge.


42 comments:

  1. Last night on the post game Tencer said the following about Petrell.

    STEVE SERDACHNY knows him from all the work he's done in Europe. Said he's the best PK guy in all the Finnish Elite league and may be the best PK guy playing overseas/Europe.

    Pretty high praise. At least we know why he is in camp and the goal for him.

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  2. A few points:

    1. It's shocking how bad Plante's skating is. I don't say this about too many guys, but there is no hope there. None.

    2. Lots of well earned poison aimed at the defense today but the bigger concern to me was the forwards. We lost 70% of 50/50 battles today against Vancouver's "C" team and it's the same guys as it was last year losing the same battles. Watch a guy like Horcoff go through Mancari on the PK and turn it into a breakaway. That was a 40/60 puck battle at best and through effort, strength and borderline cheating (aka savvy) he came out on top. I think the cycle this year is going to be an absolute disaster in both ends.

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  3. "Said he's the best PK guy in all the Finnish Elite league and may be the best PK guy playing overseas/Europe."

    So why the heck did Tambellini sign him? I thought he hated those guys.

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  4. If we look at our glaring problems last year,: faceoffs, PK, PP, and the whole backend (D and G), you can see that Tambellini addressed the 1st , the PP should be better based on growth of talent. But otherwise it is still suspect:
    - PK - biggest issue being the diamond. We have improved the personnel, but the system is terrible. Here's hoping they abandon it quickly
    - Goalie: all depends/hinges on Dubnyk. Scary lack of proven depth, but if Dubbie rolls then we may be ok.
    - D - really scary. Biggest issue is top end Dmen. Sutton is not the answer, nor is Barker. Isn't McCabe still out there? He may be older, but he a top 4 guy on this team for sure.

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  5. Gagne DID look quicker. I also thought he looked faster. Give him some time to shake the rust and watch him go. . .

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  6. I thought Dubnyk looked very good last night. His positioning was excellent - the puck was hitting him in the logo a lot. Calm feet, and only a few rebounds.

    We'll see - the jaded Oiler fan in me still thinks NK gets half the starts this year, and that will be the litmus test as far as how serious the team is about competing.

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  7. @ Lumpjaw - the Kings didn't play last night. You must be confused.

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  8. Hordichuk: I thought he played well, hitting everything in sight and holding his own in the fights.

    And killed the Oilers in the third with a stupid penalty. As dawgbone observed, 3 shots in 3 minutes to start the third, followed by 1 shot in the next seven minutes.

    What happened in the middle? Hordichuk's stupid penalty. Get ready for a full year of it.

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  9. @Coach pb9617,

    It gets even better when you add Eager to the mix. The Oilers better get that PK fixed darn quick.

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  10. I've been roasted alive a few times for this, but I'll go again, medium rare please.

    Imagine, a big, strong, fast player dominating in a high speed contact sport.

    Reading old blogs at IOF, came across an '06 playoff piece showing how Horcoff was owning the opponents top centres, to the point the other coaches were line matching away from him.

    Horc isn't the most skilled guy in the league, must be something to that strength/speed thing.

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  11. That Lewis Black clip is hilarious. Whatever happened to Glen Beck btw? Whatever he's doing these days, I'm sure it involves Hitler and a pineapple.

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  12. I just saw the third period last night, but thought Chorney looked good. He kept good possession of the puck and moved it up ice effectively.

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  13. Oh, and Bob MacKenzie had his top 10 picks for the 2012 draft:

    Nial first, Dumba second. And another Pouliot for LT to cheer for.

    http://tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9819

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  14. liked Pajaarvi's game last night, too.
    and Smyth/RNH/Eberle had some great shifts too.

    team took a long time to get even a little bit done though.


    Question: if Khabibulin continues to suck and does the honourable thing by retiring, how does that affect the cap? (i could google it but i'm eating cereal)

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  15. But let's not kid ourselves: Dubnyk is the best goalie here, followed by Danis. That is (imo) going to be this year's tandem.

    I'd take a day off in celebration.

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  16. Question: if Khabibulin continues to suck and does the honourable thing by retiring, how does that affect the cap? (i could google it but i'm eating cereal)

    Khabibulin's contract is a 35+, so the Oilers would be on the hook for his cap for the life of the contract (in this case, two more years)

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  17. Souray/Gilbert/Visnovsky/Grebeshkov were an outstanding back four.

    But they passed to a cack handed offence.

    Cue to 2011 - Oilers forwards potentially excellent.

    But the defence flat out stinks.

    Prediction for the future: The offence is run out of town one by one, the defence is never developed properly, but...but...

    Oilers end up with Tretiak 2.0



    That's a losing team.

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  18. "but that '07 draft--with three first rounders--doesn't look like it will deliver an NHL defender from the first round."

    Isn't Karl Alzner, who was drafted in 2007 one pick ahead of Gagner (and a d-man the Oilers really wanted), an NHL defender now?

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  19. Just to emphasize how little a deal this loss is...

    Last year our scrub line up beat a fairly veteran Vancouver line up 3-2 in pre-season. Then our stacked line up destroyed Vancouver's scrub line up 8-2.

    Vancouver seemed to do OK.

    It's pre-season. Nothing to get worked up over. Still no Hemsky out there yet too or Whitney, and both are game changers.

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  20. You say RNH impressed, but I didn't see it. He didn't play badly, but the only reason I noticed him was because TSN talked about him every 2 minutes and made sure they highlighted every possible play he made.
    He played with Smyth and Eberle against AHL players and didn't stand out at all to my eye.

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  21. Also, LT, agree on most of your player reviews here.

    I think the Chorney vs. Petry will be a tougher decision than us Oil fans think. Chorney has changed as of last year. He's a better d-man. I think he got burned on that PP where Duco scored short-handed though (I don't remember if it was him or Petry), but for the most part, I think he's a better D. I'd take Petry though just cause he's always been a fave, and he plays the right side.

    As for Gilbert, I think he's an excellent second pairing. I don't think he's as good a PK option as you might think, but I definitely consider him a choice for #2 PK unit. I think like Horcoff, he's been relied upon far too much. All the responsibility has weighed on him and not allowed him to focus as much on what he does best which is move the puck and jump in on plays. I think if he plays with Barker we'll all be really impressed with what those two bring though.

    As for Hall.. he really is something else, no? Yah he didn't get any points again.. but he's still shaking off rust. I don't want to get ahead of myself, but I think 30 goals this year is in reach. He gets far too many chances and fires the puck far too much to get any less at 82 games. This kid is "incroyable".

    Question for everyone... why didn't Duco pay for his attempt to spur Hall into a fight? Send a message right now that we won't put up with that crap or it will happen all year where guys will try and goat him into fighting since they know he'll do it eventually. I love that Smyth jumped in and then eventually Peckham, but I want a full on Hordi-beatdown. Maybe that's just me..

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  22. Darren: this is the kids second NHL game. Yes, he played a weaker line up. But he showed that he was solid defensively, hungry for the puck, and could generate some beauty chances. He also was OK on the dot for a young player.

    I don't think LT is calling him the 2012 Calder trophy winner here.. just saying that he looked good for a young player. It takes time for their game to come up to NHL level, and he showed promise by not really looking out of place.

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  23. I love that Smyth jumped in and then eventually Peckham, but I want a full on Hordi-beatdown. Maybe that's just me..

    No, its not. But I think they should dress the Red Bull next time they play Vancouver. I bet he is currently in one of those wall mounts behind glass with a sign that says "Break Glass in the Event of Playing Kesler".

    Renney is just saving him to concuss someone important on the Canucks.

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  24. I thought Chorney reinforced his tweener status. Good skater, but not super fast where he can blow by guys and rush up the ice. Decent positioning, but not strong enough to move guys off the puck. OK decision making, but i didn't see him springing forwards with deft passing. I think a very good comparable for him is Nolan Baumgartner - a popcorn fart away from being an NHL regular

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  25. Ducey: I hope you're right! I'm anxious for Eager's concussion to go away so he can pass it on to a Canuck too.

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  26. tencer tweeted Hemsky is cleared for contact, but will not play Saturdy. Hopes to get in 2 pre-season games.

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  27. This is the morning of the Green Lantern Lament.

    If you're lining up against a team icing eight JFJs "winning battles in the corners" is maybe the wrong chicken wire. Laraque in his day lugged his fair share of reasonably talented players from the corners into the slot, sometimes two at a time, but nothing much ever came of it. Winning the battle, losing the war.

    All Vancouver wants from their bottom six this year is the ability to play physical and win battles after being severely schooled in the second season.

    The Navy Seals have a selection exercise where they toss a quick-sinking object into a deep pool, and whoever comes back with it (alive) makes the cut and sits down. For the rest of the group, lather rinse and repeat. Think your arms were tired after round three of water polo rugby? Welcome to Thunderdome, round twenty. The final loser-boy is shown the drain plug after sticking it through almost to graduation. Talk about a kick to the chops.

    Wanna play for the Cannucks this season? Come out of the corner with the black biscuit. I've always wondered if you could pull off the Peter Klima strategy, conserving your energy until 3OT, then with fresh arms juking some tired bastard who possesses ten times more heart and guts. Probably Klima got weeded from the Seals before he unrolled his bunk kit. Those guys don't think "conserve".

    Who makes it and who doesn't?

    From Moneyball the Movie
    For instance, the movie makes a big deal about Billy Beane going to get Jeremy Giambi before the 2002 season begins, because of his on-base percentage. “I wouldn’t do that, Billy,” the scouts say, pointing out that Jeremy has a bad reputation.

    Back to reality:

    Trouble is, even moderate baseball fans know that Jeremy Giambi was already on the A’s in 2002 ... This wouldn’t be quite as egregious, except that Giambi [stands out even in the minds of the ignorant as the key player in the infamous Jeter flip].

    The Moment

    Wow, that guy has the base path savvy of Stottlemyre gunning for third--which is pretty much the last football game I can recall watching (final score 15-14). Closest I've been to base path since was the Roloson-Peca bunt steal. What must have gone through Alomar's mind watching Todd on his first major league sortie blow-off the red light from the 3rd base coach. Could damage a guy for life. "Safe" means having to stand there and do nothing. Funny sport.

    Back to hockey, a preseason tilt against eight Giambies might make your pitching staff look pretty bad, but then none of those guys can get from first to third. Perhaps you can beat them elsewhere without winning all the plate battles mano a mano.

    I'm always cautious about overthinking categories. Rock Paper Scissors. NHL AHL OHL. For many of the guys on the Tim Horton tour de rim, it's a mighty uneven shinebox of talents and flaws.

    Via Weaksauce Weakness
    Raj: I like Green Lantern, I'm just saying it's pretty lame that he can be defeated by the color yellow.
    Sheldon: Only the modern Green Lantern is vulnerable to yellow.
    Leonard: Golden Age Green Lantern was vulnerable to wood.
    Raj: Great. So I can take them both out with a number 2 pencil?

    I bet coach has one of those tucked behind his left ear. Some of those AHL puck-mongers are going to get scratched. Preseason doesn't mean much.

    Which is not to suggest we don't have a problem if we can't fetch the puck anywhere that real men congregate.

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  28. Deadman, you can count me as among your fans here, but if you ever quote the Big Bang Theory again, it's over between us.

    Terrible show. Just awful.

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  29. tencer tweets:
    Whitney says he'll push it to get some practice time in, but won't play injured. He says there's no timeline on becoming pain free.

    What we were all worried about and suspected was our reality. Our best dman will be watching from the press box on Oct. 09.

    No need to make a Chorny decision to OKC. Only decide on Potter vs Petry ?!

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  30. @Steve Smith

    Steve you can count me as one of your fans here, but The Big Bang Theory is awesome, hilarious. It's funny, it doesn't have to be more.

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  31. @Regwald:

    This development (Whitney) should not come as any surprise. I just hope he's back before the holidays (somewhere it said this injury takes up to a year).

    But if Potter outplays Chorney and Petry - do you then send Petry back?

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  32. Agreed. No surprise about Whitney's ankle, just disappointment.

    I hope it does actually recover and allow him to play and not just cause another injury 20 games later.

    I think mgmt will keep Chorney just so they don't have to risk the waiver wire. Am guessing Petry might be the odd man out unless on opening night unless his play improves.

    This team will be carrying extra forwards and not extra dmen until a trade can be worked out I suspect.

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  33. Darren:

    I really like how RNH finished like Kadri in front of the net.

    Eberle must of had a WJC flashback.

    swhish!

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  34. Racki: he is 18. Half the 1st forwards taken were 19 when they started. Most in recent years.

    one more year in whl scoring at 2ppg. and getting strong for a 19 year old season would be wise.

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  35. The argument RNH should be in the NHL because all previous #1 picked did so it rubbish.
    Each player is different, regardless of draft position, and should be handled as so.
    There is no competitive incentive for the Oilers to keep him around this season. Let him play in the WHL, get stronger and really prove he is good enough by scoring 2ppg.
    And then we can watch him light up the WJC and pronounce him the next Gretzky. If that isn't being done yet already.

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  36. "Steve you can count me as one of your fans here, but The Big Bang Theory is awesome, hilarious. It's funny, it doesn't have to be more."

    Not to make a mountain out of a mole-hill about a show on a hockey-blog, but I think it goes without saying that a show made by the same guy who created Two and a Half Men that utilizes much of the same humour structure is going to be quite divisive. You'll always have the people who get it, and those that don't. As in, those who get that it is an awful piece of "entertainment". ;)

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  37. rickibear: I never said anything about wanting him to play in the NHL this year. I actually am still undecided.

    I'd tend to lean towards him going back to junior more because we've got a healthy competition for the center job right now. I'd like to see some of the older guys get their opportunity first.

    Realistically though, I think the Oilers will make the decision to keep him here though whether it is the correct one or not.

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  38. I thought Smid was really the only defenseman who looked "steady" last night.

    I didn't realize he played that little, but the Oilers didn't ever really seem to be in any danger when he was on the ice.

    Since the Oilers decided to not employ any more good NHL defenders this season, they need Smid to turn the corner in the worst way.

    The fate of this team lies on a guy like Smid stepping up, and Dubnyk not staining the sheets.

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  39. Souray/Gilbert/Visnovsky/Grebeshkov were an outstanding back four.

    Depends how you look at it.

    a. We had a ton of cap space spent on those 4, something like $21 million at the time.

    b. Not really one complete dman in the bunch.

    Souray was tough but injury prone, had a plexiglass shattering shot, but not great lateral mobility/speed.

    Grebeshkov could do some nice things offensively but was the acid eater for a reason :p

    Visnovsky was a beauty on the pp and for offense, but wasn't suberb in his zone in some areas. Used to play butter soft minutes at evens--IIRC, no pk, etc... Still a beauty at what he did well (still is).

    Gilbert - cashed in by virtue of all those 2nd assists... :P

    Obviously, I would trade a current top four for those guys from 2008, lol...

    Still, given the balance or mix of those four combined with their cap hits at the time, it wasn't all that and a piece of toast.

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  40. [i]Racki said...
    I think the Chorney vs. Petry will be a tougher decision than us Oil fans think.[/i]

    I strongly doubt this. Betting Petry is our #2 ranked Dman at the end of this season. (taking into account Whitney not playing much of 2011 at all). Chorney's just fine going forward but he bites it huge in his own end.

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  41. RNH had a bit of a tough game yesterday, but didn't look overmatched physically, which is primarily the reason why he'd stay or be sent back to Red Deer.

    Also, I'd rather see the kid pushed to develop his game against tough NHL competition than coast in the WHL for a year with no challenge and no growth.

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