Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Is the Future Too Small?

There have been times over the last 20 years when the Edmonton Oilers were so interested in sending size over the boards that small items like skill were overlooked. Without saying the names, I think most Oiler fans could list off several of these player types without much trouble. The group of players we're likely to see emerge as Oilers in the next two seasons reflect the club's new mission statement: hockey players who may or may not have size on their side but can play the game. Skill>size.

Who are these men?

In looking at the Oilers depth chart up front, it's interesting to see just how many of the "big men" on the pro roster have been added recently:
  • Ben Eager 6.02, 235
  • Ryan O'Marra 6.02, 220
  • Josh Green 6.03, 218
  • Teemu Hartikainen 6.01, 215
  • Darcy Hordichuk 6.01, 211
  • Shawn Horcoff 6.01, 208
  • Curtis Hamilton 6.02, 206
Two things ring true: That forward group isn't as big as the group one year ago, and with the trading of Dustin Penner the skill lines don't have a big man. Here's last year's beef:
  • Steve MacIntyre 6.05, 250
  • Dustin Penner 6.04, 220
  • JF Jacques 6.04, 220
  • Zack Stortini 6.04, 215
It's fairly easy to match last year's wingers with this year's replacements--Ryan Smyth (6.02, 192) is smaller than Dustin Penner and Darcy Hordichuk is smaller than Steve MacIntyre. Ben Eager is larger than JF Jacques but the general feel of the roster is smaller.

Furthermore, if we list the 10 players likely to be Oiler forwards for most of the next decade, we get a list of smaller, more skilled men:
  1. Teemu Hartikainen 6.01, 215
  2. Curtis Hamilton 6.02, 206
  3. Magnus Paajarvi 6.03, 200
  4. Tyler Pitlick 6.02, 195
  5. Taylor Hall 6.01, 194
  6. Anton Lander 6.0, 194
  7. Jordan Eberle 6.0, 185
  8. Sam Gagner 5.11, 191
  9. Linus Omark 5.10, 174
  10. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 6.01, 171
I think the Oilers are at a very interesting point in their history right now. Two possible options:
  1. The Oilers make the right call on each of these forwards, choosing wisely and allowing the best of them to form a cluster that ascends the standings and goes deep in search of Stanley each spring.
  2. They may lose one or more of the quality forwards during that time when each of them struggles to find their way.
Deciding on which player to deal--and when--is a combination of skill, luck and the thunder of the Gods. If it goes right, the GM in your town sends away 10 cents and gets back two dollars. If your GM is dumb, hasn't been living right or luck bites it could end up costing you forever.

There are two other items we can discuss around this issue:
  1. Will the Oilers pursue another Penner? I don't see any 6.04, 220 skill forwards on the current roster. I'm not saying they require one (Hall has an edge to his game and Hartikainen plus Pitlick can do some things in this area) but the Oilers may have a different view.
  2. Will the Oilers offload Hemsky or deal one of the kids (most likely Omark, which could be death if he turns into the player we think he could be) for help elsewhere?
Dangerous time for Steve Tambellini.

14 comments:

  1. Link to a story about a plane crash in Russia carrying a KHL team.

    http://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=375297

    Some former NHL players.Very sad story.

    http://hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0050262011.html

    ReplyDelete
  2. That's frightening. One of the many reasons I can't understand why these guys choose Russia over other options. It is too dangerous.

    ReplyDelete
  3. http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/09/07/russia-plane-crash.html

    Craziness.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Real sad day for hockey.

    As per your topic, the bubbling under guys have some size so in your list of future 10 forwards, only 2 are under 6'0.

    Assuming they are all hockey players, that's pretty good.

    A guy like Harski playing hard at 6'1" trumps JFJ at 6'4 every day of the week.

    Its a matter of combining hockey skill with some some size and they are miles ahead of where they were when they seemed to segregate the group into 1) Skill 2) Size.

    Filling out the roster with the likes of Pitlik, Hamilton, Harski adds sizable hockey players. Hall and MPS are sizable as well.

    If that's 5 of the top 9, you are in decent shape, especially when you couple that with a player like Omark, who uses his smaller size and lower center of gravity to his advantage.

    He's tougher to get off the puck than many 6'3" guys.

    Its about hockey skill, not just size.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Further to Woodguy's point, Paajarvi at 6'3 and already 200 pounds is no midget. He doesn't play physical, but neither did Penner, it's more a matter of him learning how to use his size and in a few years when he figures it out, bulks up a bit more and with his speed he is going to be a load.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Speaking of useful players with size, I would like to suggest a D-man that is available as a free agent; Ilja Nikulin.

    He is playing in the KHL for AK Bars Kazan. 6'4", 223 lbs, he was drafted by the Thrashers 31st o/a in the 2000 draft. He is a fixture on most Russian international teams.

    He was mainly advertised as a D - first guy. It took him until 3 years a go to figure out that he could play defence, yet still score some. He is one of the leaders in the league last year for total assists. He is a left hand shot that plays on the right side. From all indications, he is an excellent QB for the power play. He has an under rated shot from the point.

    He does have a current contract signed with his KHL team, but at least in his last contract, he used to have an NHL escape clause (unsure whether he does now).

    ELite Prospects says: "A large defensive defenseman with good physical game. Takes a lot of offensive responsibility. Good on powerplay."

    2009 53Gms 7Gls 26A 33pts 72pim
    2010 49Gms 6Gls 27A 33pts 86pim
    2011 49Gms 6Gls 34A 40pts 56pim

    Certainly worth a phone call, eh Toonces?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Did Dustin Penner's agent provide you with his weight LT? It seems about 20 lbs light. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  8. Alexei Mikhonov and Daniel Tjarnqvist were listed in the hockeydb link....

    Sad day for everyone...

    ReplyDelete
  9. Speaking of players weight,Dustin Byfugamyjig was listed at 286 lbs on his arrest record.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Didn't see this up anywhere, but considering it's coming out of the Oilers' own media crew... it's another signal that they will be looking at Dubnyk to see if he can handle the starters job.

    In the hunt for No. 1 - Devan Dubnyk looks to follow strong rookie season by earning starting role

    Also good to see that the kid finds Saint Nik a good partner. If the Russian is being phased out, it sounds like he'll be a consummate pro about it - huge plus.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Dustin Penner 220lbs? Penner hasn't been 220lbs since grade 4.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Also good to see that the kid finds Saint Nik a good partner. If the Russian is being phased out, it sounds like he'll be a consummate pro about it - huge plus.


    One of the reasons that the Oilers said they went with Khabi instead of Roli is that they said that Roli was not happy with sharing the starting roll or even giving kids a decent number of starts whereas Khabi was willing to take on a mentorship role.

    ReplyDelete
  13. The Oilers are a bigger team this year. There's a difference between what height and weight a player is listed at and how "big" he plays on the ice. Factor in ice time / effectiveness and measured height/ weight becomes very misleading.

    ReplyDelete