Thursday, September 1, 2011

The Graduates

How many good NHL players should we expect the Oklahoma City Barons to graduate per season? Last year, we can reasonably argue that Jeff Petry and Linus Omark showed well in OKC (although their development was pretty much done); does that represent a typical season?



Going back to 1999-00, here are the graduates for each season:
  • 99-00: Daniel Cleary; Dan Lacouture 
  • 00-01: Shawn Horcoff; Scott Ferguson 
  • 01-02: Jason Chimera; Fernando Pisani; Alexei Semenov; Alex Henry; Ty Conklin.
  • 02-03: Jarret Stoll; Marc-Andre Bergeron
  • 03-04: Jeff Woywitka
  • 04-05: Brad Winchester
  • 05-06: Matt Greene
  • 06-07: Kyle Brodziak; Marc Pouliot;  Toby Petersen; Zack Stortini; JF Jacques
  • 07-08: Jeff Deslauriers
  • 08-09: Rob Schremp; Liam Reddox; Gilbert Brule
  • 09-10: Devan Dubnyk; Theo Peckham; Ryan Potulny
  • 10-11: Linus Omark; Jeff Petry
I tried to use 100 games in the NHL as the line in the sand, but some players (Cleary, Brule) played in the NHL before I've counted them as graduates so it's not a perfect list but rather an attempt to find something resembling an estimate.

In the 12 seasons listed above, I count 28 players or about 2.3 a season. It would seem that 2 or 3 AHL grads is an expected season. Here are my candidates for graduation this season (from last year's roster):
  1. Teemu Hartikainen
  2. Taylor Chorney
  3. Colten Teubert
  4. Chris VandeVelde
  5. Tanner House
  6. Ryan O'Marra
  7. Alex Plante
  8. Milan Kytnar
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22 comments:

  1. roiltyThursday, September 1, 2011 at 5:36:00 PM MDT

    The only graduate I see on that list is Teemu. I would add Lander to that list though as I see him starting (but not finishing) in OKC.

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  2. LowetideThursday, September 1, 2011 at 5:42:00 PM MDT

    roilty: Lander didn't play in OKC this past season so wouldn't be part of the group we're discussing. Should he graduate to the NHL this year, I don't think any credit can be given to the minor league development pipeline.

    I also think it's questionable to give credit on Omark (and to a great extent Petry) but it's a tough line to draw.

    I agree on Hartikainen, but would also add Chorney to the list.

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  3. DuceyThursday, September 1, 2011 at 6:59:00 PM MDT

    I'd put VDV about 4th on the list. I think he is ahead of ROM and Kytnar.

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  4. LowetideThursday, September 1, 2011 at 7:01:00 PM MDT

    Damn. Forgot about him. Good slot for him (4th).

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  5. Eskimo44Thursday, September 1, 2011 at 9:13:00 PM MDT

    I don't know if he counts, but Hamilton could be an NHLer by the end of the year.

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  6. misfitThursday, September 1, 2011 at 9:34:00 PM MDT

    The most I could see from Hamilton in the NHL next year would be a couple of games at the end of the year once the Oilers are mathematically eliminated. He'd have to have a pretty special AHL rookie season to get a callup any earlier in the season, even with injuries.

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  7. LowetideThursday, September 1, 2011 at 9:38:00 PM MDT

    The problem for Hamilton (in regard to the Oilers) is that they added two free agent LW's and Ryan Smyth to a position that already had Hall, Paajarvi and Hartikainen.

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  8. spOILerThursday, September 1, 2011 at 10:33:00 PM MDT

    LT,

    How can no credit to the AHL go to Lander next year (if he qualifies), but the AHL gets credit for Omark? I know you say Omark is a difficult call, but he and Lander would have the exact same lines in the sand. How do we justify a different side of the line for each? Sorry, but I don't get that one.

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  9. misfitThursday, September 1, 2011 at 10:34:00 PM MDT

    Not only that, but guys like Petrell, Green, Keller (is he LW or RW?) or possibly even Cornet having more pro experience could result in them getting a call-up before Hamilton unless he's significantly better throughout the first part of the season.

    Hartikainen had a pretty good AHL season and he probably wouldn't have played in the NHL last year without a combination of Penner being traded, Hall being injuried, and Giroux not performing well in his call-up.

    Even though we have 8 defensemen who should definitely be in the NHL or would have to clear waivers to be sent down, I still think the most likely graduate will be a defenseman. Chorney and Teubert seem like the most likely (especially considering Chorney's waiver status).

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  10. spOILerThursday, September 1, 2011 at 10:36:00 PM MDT

    I believe to this day, probably for unfounded reasons, that Tambellini did not want to make the trade for Smyth.

    Which is also the reason why I expect no repercussions from the League.

    There's plenty of circumstantial evidence to back up my theory, but sadly no smoking gun.

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  11. spOILerThursday, September 1, 2011 at 10:37:00 PM MDT

    The above is re: LWers

    ReplyDelete
  12. misfitThursday, September 1, 2011 at 10:37:00 PM MDT

    spOiler: I was wondering the same thing, but I figured the fact that Omark was 3 years older with 5 years of pro experience was the reason he was considered a graduate despite having not played in the AHL the year before.

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  13. misfitThursday, September 1, 2011 at 10:48:00 PM MDT

    spOiler: Once again, I find myself thinking the same thing as you. I've always thought (since it happened a whole ~2 months ago) that Tambellini wouldn't have traded for Smyth had his trade request not gone public well before.

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  14. Robert J. SummersThursday, September 1, 2011 at 10:59:00 PM MDT

    What is this 'circumstantial evidence' you speak of. Is it basically the fact that he had Lombardi over a barrel and didn't jump to give him a 2nd round draft pick for Smyth?

    I think there may have been some reluctance because there is a desire to make a break from the past and to have a young team establish their own culture. Alternativly, it could have been seen as a great opportunity to show the young kids that playing in this city can be a very good thing and to provide them with some energetic leadership.

    To be honest, I don't know, but I think that arguments that Tambellini didn't want to trade for Smyth are probably based more upon people's personal dislike of Tambellini than on any evidence.

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  15. krisThursday, September 1, 2011 at 11:43:00 PM MDT

    Canada is a fun place to rent.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Art VandelayFriday, September 2, 2011 at 12:55:00 AM MDT

    I'd love to know what language "Rent's" comment was composed in, before being translated into English spam.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Black DogFriday, September 2, 2011 at 6:28:00 AM MDT

    I actually used Rent Toronto to buy my house (Ironic I know!). Also I rented the cardboard box that my kids sleep in out in the backyard from them.

    Its really a quality site.

    ReplyDelete
  18. LowetideFriday, September 2, 2011 at 7:15:00 AM MDT

    Hey Rent: Fuck off.

    spOILer: In regard to Lander, I was saying (not expertly) that if Lander goes right to the NHL there should be no credit given to the AHL affiliate.

    Omark does fall under that umbrella, but only because the Oilers sent him out when they had no business doing it.

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  19. BruceFriday, September 2, 2011 at 10:05:00 AM MDT

    The most I could see from Hamilton in the NHL next year would be a couple of months at the end of the year once the Oilers are mathematically eliminated.

    @misfit: Fixed that for you.

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  20. misfitFriday, September 2, 2011 at 2:15:00 PM MDT

    You're probably a lot closer, but hey, it's the offseason. A time for optimism.

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  21. BruceFriday, September 2, 2011 at 2:25:00 PM MDT

    @misfit: I'm optimistic too, but the last couple of years of bitter experience made that opportunity for a little snark too good to pass up.

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  22. JayFriday, September 2, 2011 at 9:10:00 PM MDT

    Not a great list of grads post Matt Green, is it?

    With the exclusion of Petry and Omark who didn't spend much time developing in the AHL, we've basically graduated 3 NHL players over the past 5 years--a backup goalie :p, 5/6 dman, and 3rd/4rth line centre who put up 37 points for the Wild last season...

    Ideally, Hartikinen gets some games this year despite the logjam at LW and Chorney is claimed off waivers.

    After that, I hope we don't see too many games from VV, though I think he showed okay in his brief stint in the NHL last year.

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