Theo Peckham is not an ideal candidate for the Jason Smith role. He can get mixed up at times defensively and caught going the wrong way, and he has challenges moving the puck. He did not have big offensive seasons as a junior (Jason Smith did) and he does not have the ability to skate the puck out of danger.
However, as they say: the absence of alternatives clears the mind. Theo Peckham is the best candidate for the role the Edmonton Oilers cannot solve: a solid minutes EV defender who can play heavy minutes against good opposition and then have enough energy to play a major role as a penalty killer. Ready or not, here comes Teddy Peckman.
NHL prediction for 11-12: 70, 3-12-15
- Are you sure he'll play a top 4 role this coming season? Based on their behaviour this summer, I have to assume the Oilers think Barker is the solution. He's being hyped in the media and is a pretty famous young hockey player. The math suggests he is not going to be the solution, and Peckham was the Renney fallback position one year ago.
- Seriously? What about Sutton? I know Sutton played some bigger minutes in the recent past and maybe he can play a bigger role than I've suggested. It doesn't seem reasonable to suggest he'll win the day as a major even strength contributor.
- Will they start the season with Peckham on the 2nd pairing? I think they'll give Barker a shot, but there's not a lot of positive trends on his resume. I think Peckham wins the job as he did last year.
- Peckham was top 4 last year? Yes. As I said in the spring RE review Peckham played tougher minutes than one would think for a player of his experience. He did it while playing with Tom Gilbert 48% of the time at evens, so despite the teammate number above he wasn't alone. He did have the toughest zone start, so for Peckham to emerge with his CorsiRel at -6.6 and a -5 overall (and allowing a major dollop for luck) that's still a solid year. This was his first full NHL season.
- So maybe he can handle it? In a perfect world or even a logical one the Oilers would get a more experienced partner for Gilbert and then that tandem would do damage. As it is, the Peckham-Gilbert pairing will have to stand up to quality opposition and try not to get killed. It is somewhat similar to the days when Ladislav Smid would skate the puck over to Steve Staios--dragging an opposition forward along--and then pass Staios the puck. Not quite that bad, but this is not an ideal scenario.
- The tandem got killed last season. According to Dennis King's numbers (via Copper and Blue) it was the most successful pairing Peckham was attached to last year. If wishes were horses then beggars would ride; this looks like the 11-12 2nd pairing to me.
- No No No! It's Gilbert-Smid and Whitney-someone. Well, we can wait for someone, but I think the club will run through Barker and maybe Sutton before arriving at Peckham (or Petry).
- You seriously think they'll run Peckham-Gilbert out there? Not to start. I expect Smid-Gilbert will be a 1st or 2nd pairing (with Whitney possibly missing the first part of the season) and then they'll try something crazy for the other two pairings.
- Crazy? If Whitney is hurt, then Renney will likely have Smid, Gilbert, Peckham, Barker, Sutton, Chorney and Petry on the roster. How would you cut that up? I'll guess he goes Smid-Gilbert, Sutton-Barker, Peckham-Petry as a beginning.
- And it won't work? Recent history for the new hires suggests it won't, but maybe they know something we don't know. I'm guessing they slide Peckham (and maybe Petry too) up the depth chart early on this season.
- You don't think the Sutton-Barker tandem can play tough minutes. What is your proof? For crying out loud: Minnesota bought out Barker, and the Ducks--dying for defensemen--played Sutton 12 even strength minutes a night. If you look at the summer's exchange: Foster and Vandermeer out, Barker and Sutton in, pretty much all of that activity is outside the top minutes at evens.
- What's the plan? This why I don't understand what Steve Tambellini did on defense this summer. He has two reasonable young bets on defense (Peckham and Petry) and odds are both will he useful if they can stay healthy. Peckham should be able to cover 15-17 minutes a night at evens when he's mature, and then be a PK contributor. I'm not really familiar with what a top 4D represents to people, but if he can play the evens against the tougher (not toughest) opposition, that should be a second pair defender. Right? Petry, same thing only he'd be used on the PP too so maybe he grabs 20 minutes a night. Maybe Petry even becomes a guy who can take on top pairing opposition but we're guessing at how things will turn out long into the future.
- What don't you understand about Tambellini? Tambellini looked at the roster and probably saw three of his top 4 (Whitney, Gilbert, Smid). He sees Peckham who played top 4 at times this past season but has some issues, he sees Petry who is a long term solution but perhaps not ready. So, in that situation I believe you'd want to add a guy who can play tougher minutes at even strength and cheat for the PK a little; ST got a PP solution and an enforcer who can penalty kill. It just doesn't make as much sense to me as signing Scott Hannan.
- Maybe Hannan wasn't available to the Oilers. Could be, he did sign just down the road though. I think the Oilers might have had a shot if they'd offered longer term and say 2M or so, but am clearly guessing. I don't think anyone thought Hannan would be available this late and the Oilers decided on their roster earlier in the summer. Too bad, Hannan made sense for this roster.
- How good can Peckham become? I'm not sure. You'd like a more expert puck handler but he's certainly going to create room for his blue partner. Peckham has moved up the depth chart nicely and has passed a lot of tests, which is one of the main reasons I think Renney will ask him to add a few chores to his game this coming season.
- You like him. Sure do, he's a throwback player who I think will be more effective as he ages and learns those little tricks that allow veterans to cheat defensively without getting caught. I think he's a keeper, no matter if he's playing 2nd or 3rd pairing.
- Should he be a top 4 option? No, not at this time. Possibly in the future. However, I believe he'll be thrust into the role again in 11-12.
Is there an confirmed source for the first appearance of the term Teddy Peckman, or did that name emerge simultaneously throughout the Oilogosphere on the same day last year?
ReplyDeleteIt started the night Don Cherry said it.
ReplyDeleteLooks like Woodguy must be on vacation... Haven't seen his posts in awhile?
ReplyDeleteFunny stat:
Edmonton Oilers 2010-11 dmen: 23 goals. 123 points
Lubomir Visn 2010-11: 18 goals. 68 points
Any questions? lol :p
As for Peckham, someone at C&B said it best already, "If you don't like Theo Peckham, you don't like hockey." Granted I agree that he's not likely to ever play like Staios in his prime.
Peckham terrorized his junior league, no one wanted to fight him - made me an instant fan.
ReplyDeleteOne game last year, might have been Carolina the entire opposition did nothing more than pound him personally, all night long and he took it pretty good until midway through the 3rd lol.
The quality of nicknames in the NHL would go up if players were assigned them by Cherry. He deserves that compliment.
ReplyDeleteIf only Cherry intended half the nicknames he assigned inadvertently.
ReplyDeleteThis RE feels like damning by faint praise (at least the intro). But thrusting Peckham up the roster does follow the MO of the Oilers management the last few years: pick a player, hope his high water mark holds (or goes higher) and stand back.
If the priority should have been to sign "a top 4 defender at even strength who could also help the PK", who were the best candidates out there?
ReplyDeleteHannan & Colin White have been mentioned, but they are 32 and 33 respectively. Neither could be considered more than a short-term solution, where at least if the Barker gamble works he's still young enough to stick around for awhile.
I could only find 2 other younger UFA's who fit that description: Jonathan Ericsson (27) & Andy Greene (28). However, both re-signed with their original teams for 3+ yrs at $3+ mil/per.
At the kind of contract given out to convince one of them to sign here(4 yrs, $16 mil?), aren't we better off seeing if Peckham can develop into that guy and/or trying to pry someone better away in a trade?
dwillms, I think Lowetide and others here are saying the same thing.
ReplyDeleteGet Hannan (maybe a 1 year overpay, 2 million?) or White (available on waivers) as exactly that, a short term stopgap. Both can legitimately play top 4 minutes and PK, albeit maybe not as effective as in years past. Both would be vastly superior to any of the options the Oilers have now not named Gilbert or Whitney.
Getting one of Hannan or White does not preclude signing Barker or Peckham furthering his development. What it does do is give you a set top 4 that can be effective, and you can experiment all you want with the Barker as a reclamation project and can let Peckham come along slowly instead of throwing him to the wolves again.
What's not smart is gambling that one of two guys with a history that suggests they aren't up to the task, and another coming off his rookie season in which he was thrown into the deep end and struggled mightily, can suddenly become legitimate top 4 shutdown defencemen.
If the lottery numbers come up and Barker magically becomes that capable top 4 guy, or Peckham vastly accelerates his development and emerges as a capable top 4 guy, you now have trade bait at the deadline, as any number of teams would be knocking on the door for Hannan or White then.
Wishes and buts, candy and nuts, is not the way to go into a season opener.
We haven't even touched on what would happen in the event of injuries here yet...and I won't event bother since we all know what the result would be if Whitney or Gilbert miss any significant time.
I like Peckham a lot. Something about him makes me believe he could become a solid top 4 d in the near future. Mostly a gut feel, but that's what I see.
ReplyDeleteI am also a big Peckham supporter. He brings so much to the table that the Oilers do not have - physical play in the corners and in front of the net - abrasive trash-talking all game long.
ReplyDeleteHe is my favourite Oiler defender, and the day it was cemented was that game last year where the Oilers were getting trounced (yeah, you remember that one) and Peckham scored late and skated right back to the blue line with no celebration. We need more players like that who hate to lose.
ted peckman? top 4?
ReplyDeletei love the guy's determination and playing style but just don't see it.
passing isn't quite there, speed isn't quite there, shot isn't quite there.
maybe he'll pick up some significant time on the PK if he works on it. can see him becoming very good in that role if his first step and positional play improves a bit.