Whitney has also been a model citizen in Edmonton, something Oiler fans have come to value heavily. Lots of men say the right things, but Whitney's comments about being an Oiler ring true. He doesn't appear to be a man who says things for the sake of appearances. I think he's telling the truth when talking about being a part of the rebuild and wanting to see this team succeed.
The issue with Whitney is health. The Oilers can't afford to have him miss any games, but history tells us he's going to miss 30 (or so). In the games Ryan Whitney doesn't dress, the Edmonton Oilers are a lesser team. That reflects well on Whitney, and badly on team depth at a vital position.
NHL prediction for 11-12: 50, 4-24-28 (.560)
- You don't think he'll do as well this season. I think he'll be injured and that the offense won't repeat itself, but this is a quality NHL defenseman.
- Why can't he repeat it? Ryan Whitney--playing for an awful NHL team--had the NHL's 2nd best 5x5/60 minutes point total (1.58) among defensemen. I think it's reasonable to expect some falloff from what was going to be an astounding NHL season. He could lose 30% of his offense from a year ago and still be quality.
- If he'd been healthy all year? The Oilers would have had a better won-loss record and Whitney would have scored more than 50 points (based on the 35-game sample).
- So he won't be healthy and he'll score less? I think both are reasonable suggestions. When he's able, Whitney will make a world of difference.
- He didn't make that much of a difference last year. Well, the Oilers won 12 of his 35 games and then after the injury won 13 of 47. I don't know how many games we can credit one man with, but the team was clearly poorer for his loss. And early in the season Khabibulin had the Jimmy legs so that wasn't helping anything.
- How big a worry is the foot/ankle? I'm not sure. Whitney's feet seem to be an issue but I haven't seen any evidence that the recent injury ties it into some kind of genetic deficiency. I hesitate to call anything medical a one-off, but there is some evidence it was unique.
- What does he do well? Lots of things. He's an amazing headman passer, just fluid like watching Will Clark swing the bat. He can make defensive plays and I think he would probably be an excellent mentor to the kids.
- What doesn't he do well? Stay healthy. Man I wish he could stay healthy.
- Who should be play with? I think he would be able to face the toughest opponent (which he did anyway) and be > if paired with Gilbert. After that, I'd pick Petry.
- Petry? Yes. They played together for the first 6 shifts of Petry's career and looked good. In Petry's 7th shift, the first without Whitney, Buffalo scored on the Oil.
- Seriously. Based on 6 shifts! Well, there's more to it than that. I think the Oilers will try Barker with Whitney when the big man is healthy. However, Petry is a more mature prospect and took to the NHL game quite well. If Whitney-Barker fails my guess is that the club tries Peckham in that role with Petry the next in line.
- You're wrong. It'll be Barker and then Sutton. Okay, I don't think either will work.
- How will they use him? As one of two roster defensemen who are NHL veterans with a wide range of skills, Whitney will get heavy minutes in all three areas. I believe they'll ride him hard as long as he can stay upright.
- How many minutes a night? Last season they rode him 18EV, 3SH and 4PP. I expect his workload may be about the same but the club might try some different things shorthanded this year.
- Is he better than Lubo? No, I don't think so. A wider range of skills, but Visnovsky was so good at what he was good at (and clearly still is) that he trumped the range. Anyway, I don't want to think about it anymore.
- Is Whitney good enough to be that franchise defender? No, I don't think so. He can play tough opposition though, and if you give him a quality partner then you're cooking with Christopher Walken.
I think it's reasonable to expect some falloff from what was going to be an astounding NHL season. He could lost 30%
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
Whitney had some percentages fall his way last year.
He had the highest PDO on Oiler D with 1060. 12.50 on ice SH% and 935 on ice SV% (both at 5v5, both highest on Oilers)
Next closest SH% was Gilbert at 8.77, next highest SV% was .917 for Foster.
Whitney had the 2nd highest PDO of any NHL Dman playing 30+ games last year, surpassed only by McQuaid of BOS with a 1062.
He certainly played at the far end of the bell curve.
He will regress to the mean and the MSM will publish "Is Whitney's injury lingering?", when he is simply hitting normalcy.
His normal is still the best D on the team, with Gilbert not being too far behind.
I think he's telling the truth when talking about being a part of the rebuild and wanting to see this team succeed.
ReplyDeleteI tend to agree in general, with the one proviso that I think he's gone when he turns UFA in 2 years if there's a chance for him to join the Bruins.
Anyone who follows him on twitter knows that he's a certifiable Boston sports nut, and he likely lived for the Bruins as a kid. Let's hope he gets healthy and that that opportunity doesn't present itself.
If he's healthy, we're set. If he's not... well, we can always see what Dean Lombardi is up to...
ReplyDelete"Chrisopther" reminds me of Horcoff sliding neck-first into the shot block and MacT commenting afterward "I was thinking of a life well lived." Fortunately the puck missed. (This was before the point could be debated.)
ReplyDeleteLewis Thomas once wrote that the rule in medicine is that 90% of ailments cure themselves, if you wait long enough. It's kind of like that with injury proneness.
Plutarch tells us that Tiberius said "Every man is a fool or his own physician at forty."
I've mentioned J. Tiberius before, but this is the first time for the original Tiberius. (I was tempted to substitute Sarak for Plutarch, I have to admit, in the spirit of the Good News Bible, keeping things contemporary.)
In the NHL, thirty is the new forty. Any theory about injury proneness will most likely prove out with modest patience. Truth be told, there's no such thing as a medical one-off in athletes who age.
I think in a severe mixture of good+bad, there's a huge margin available to a player who knows how to harness more of one than the other, and Whitney was our one horse on defense who perhaps makes that grade.
This year with a little more good and a little less bad, I'm not sure Whitney regresses that much. Fingers crossed.
That made me think that accelerating the human condition is one of the reasons we dig sports. In women's tennis, you can practically hear them age every time they contact the ball. Did you hear it? There goes another week.
ReplyDeleteI wonder who will be the first woman to say "100 years ago today, I was upside down on a balance beam winning my first gold medal".
Among athletes on the other side of puberty, Anthony Calvillo seems to be making a good case for membership in the Gordie Howe freak show. Tiberius hadn't met Gordie Howe, or he would have written "by age 40, almost every man is a fool or a physician". (Did they have italics back then? I bet that was the invention of hazard pay. It's hard enough missing your thumb chiseling straight up and down.)
I've mentioned J. Tiberius before, but this is the first time for the original Tiberius. (I was tempted to substitute Sarak for Plutarch, I have to admit, in the spirit of the Good News Bible, keeping things contemporary.)
ReplyDeleteSo, umm... You're not talking about Captain Kirk then. Gotcha.
Did they not have ITALics in ITALy?
ReplyDeleteAlmost as gigantic a catastrophe as the word palindrome not being Bob.
The Butterfly Effect is groaning.
Sorry about the spelling errors, everyone. We had a small incident right after I posted the blog.
ReplyDeleteAll is well, but my 3-minute edit didn't happen with predictable results.
I like this team a lot better with Whitney and without that goalie.
ReplyDeleteDOUGHTY: 'NO RUSH' TO SIGN WITH KINGS
ReplyDeleteKINGS: 'NO RUSH' TO TRADE WITH OILERS PROBABLY EVER AGAIN
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ReplyDeleteI honestly think we'll see Whitney play closer to 70 games, if not a full season. I realize that's anything but a given, but with the amount of time he's had for recovery from surgery, as well as any other potentially nagging injuries, I think he'll be a lot healthier this year than he has been in the past.
ReplyDeleteNow here's a fun fact.
ReplyDeleteSince the lockout, Ryan Whitney has played 322 professional hockey games.
An injury prone Sheldon Souray has played 340.
Whitney has scored 227 points in that time frame.
Souray has scored 217 although 19 were scored in the AHL last season.
LT's reasonable expectation looks pretty much bang on
When we were children we wpuld always try and imitate the swings of all the good players of that era.
ReplyDeleteDale Murphy, Strawberry, Willy Mcgee, etc. I ended up being pretty good at most of them, but i couod never get Wil Clark's right. Truly a beautiful swing.
@itsaleaf
ReplyDeleteI was always most mesmerized Watching Ken Griffey Jr. swing the bat, but Will Clark was ridiculous.
One thing I have never really understood is why all of the players with the sweetest strokes were lefties.
Now here's a fun fact.
ReplyDeleteSince the lockout, Ryan Whitney has played 322 professional hockey games.
An injury prone Sheldon Souray has played 340.
If you are including AHL games, I have Whitney playing 399 since the start of the 05/06 season.
You are right on the 340 for Souray.
The fact OTC's likes and dislikes had any impact on the team is my kind of personal fear;
ReplyDeleteThat the new GM decides to place his stamp on the team, then trades away half the team.
I wonder what would Lombardi would do if the Oilers made an offer sheet to Doughty?
ReplyDeleteI don't want it to happen as it would not be a good move, but it would kind of be fun.