Anyway, I learned a ton about baseball during my decade in the ERL. For instance, if you want to find an inexpensive starter who can post wins the following season there's a method to identify him. It goes like this: healthy pitcher with a k/w ratio of 3-to-1 (or thereabouts) and a won-loss record that does not reflect his pitching this season. If you can get a pitcher who starts his home games in a big ballpark that's an added advantage.
It's also true that if you have a starting pitcher with an 18-7 won-loss record but a terrible whip and k/w ratio, this would be a good time to offload said starter. Chances are next season will bite him (and you) in the ass. That's the kind of season Ryan Jones had in 10-11. Poor k/w but a nice won-loss.
NHL Prediction for 11-12: 64, 5-11-16 (.250)
- This is a guy who scored 18 goals a year ago, and you're projecting 5! Right.
- You do know his shooting percentages have been excellent going back to college, right? Sure.
- What is your problem? I just don't think he's going to play as much as he did a year ago. Last season, Jones played 11 minutes at evens, 2 on the PK and 1 on the PP a year ago. Total: 14 minutes. I project him to play 8 at evens and 2 on the PK this season, plus a little on the PP.
- He's coming off his best season and you have him playing less! Oh yeah, I think that has a very good chance of happening. Oiler wingers ahead of him are Hall-Eberle, Smyth-Hemsky and Paajarvi-Omark. And there's Eager-Brule and Hordichuk too. Lots of talent.
- What role will he play? Hmmm. I'll say the Dave Hunter-Dave Lumley or Pat Hughes role, except he'll play less at even strength.
- How many forwards do you project to play more than he does at evens? 11. All of the guys you'd expect plus Hartikainen.
- How many forwards do you project to play more than he does on the PK? Belanger and Horcoff among centers and I have Jones, Smyth and Eberle about even on the 4x5.
- Why can't he repeat last season? It would be very difficult. Jones scored 15 goals at even strength, tied with men like Teemu Selanne and David Booth. Jones scored his 15 EV goals in 881 minutes, Selanne took 1055 minutes and Booth 1302.
- Maybe he's a late bloomer. Could be, and maybe he scores 25 goals this season. That would be nice. He finished 1.04/goals per 60 minutes at 5x5, same as Marian Gaborik.
- So there's no chance you're wrong? I think the odds favor a fallback in scoring and the Oilers have other options. I mean, let me ask you: who does he replace among the top 6 wingers?
- Paajarvi. Paajarvi. Okay, you're going to demote a 20-year old kid coming off a pretty strong NHL debut and a guy who didn't get a feature role one year ago (at least until the injuries). He's displayed some chem with Omark and playing on the 4line means Eager is on his wing. I don't really see the point.
- Jones had the same 5x5/points-per-60 as MP a year ago. Right. One was having his career season and the other was a 19-year old rookie.
- What about secondary numbers? Jones had the worst CorsiRel among NHL forwards on the team. Paajarvi's was much better even though he was a rookie. Jones was one of the few Oiler forwards whose zone start was better than his zone end (although it was pretty much equal). He scored all those goals against butter soft opponents, something you'd think Renney might want to give the rookie RNH this fall.
- Maybe Jones can ride shotgun with the kid. Bleeding out is a slow, painful death. He's not the guy who is going to be on the right side of the puck often and honestly I don't know that there's a worse option on the roster for Nugent-Hopkins wingman.
- How bad could it be? Celsius and fahrenheit meet at -40.
That's the best and funniest final answer you've written yet.
ReplyDeleteLT: you just provided the context to why the contract for Ryan Jones is so bad.
ReplyDeleteWow. I mean like holy-you-know-what Batman wow.
Would think the only way Jones can get close to last year's goals scored would be another rash of injuries or an unreal shooting percentage.
Like playing the lottery.
Jones last season just seems like an outlier for statistical analysis. He scored a lot of goals, but his underlying stats were pretty brutal. J. Willis and LT did a nice job through the season pointing this out.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, Jones played the bulk of the season with linemates that were having awful seasons and likely the dreaded Oilers 3rd D pair du jour. Getting outshot by other team's fourth line isn't so bad if their scrubs can't bury it. It will show up as a nice save percentage. Jones buries his chances especially on the rush. If he cycled better (again, linemates would help) and learns to PK, he'll be an 'asset'.
RNH isn't right for him of course, but the other center options and Eager are going to help the underlying stats. Maybe the goals go down, but I think he'll get well more than five.
"healthy pitcher with a k/w ratio of 3-to-1 (or thereabouts) and a won-loss record that does not reflect his pitching this season."
ReplyDeletefrom a lurker:
That brings back memories. Entered a office pool in '89 dominated by U.S. ex-pats and took most of the prize money with 3 K-heavy starters coming off midling years. Steal of the draft was El Sid:
88: 70W 189K (12-10)
89: 75W 198K (14-5)
Is the pitcher comparison because Jones was an NHL Cy Young nominee?
ReplyDeleteI don't know why you'd play Horcoff over Jones on the PK.
ReplyDeleteHistorically, Horcoff's (In the 4 season recorded) been terrible on the PK for 2 years and ordinary (80%) for the other 2.
He's far from a stellar PK guy.
On a Jones side I think 5 goals is way too harsh.
ReplyDeleteEven if his ES goes down he would need to split his SH% in half down to 7%.
Personally, I'm hoping that Jones gets off to another hot start, so that when Tambo goes fishing for an upgrade on D, Jones appears to be an attractive option to the team we're trading with. Will it happen? History doesn't like the odds, but hard work and puck luck can be strange bedfellows.
ReplyDeleteWhile I agree we should expect a regression on Jones this year I think this projection goes beyond "reasonable" into a baseline possibility. Assuming he plays the whole season I think five goals would have to be considered the minimum. The guy's an ugly player but he finds a way to get some garbage goals. Put another way: does Corsi really measure a guys ability to score a goal when it consists of bulldogging it in and when no passing is requied on his part? It's borderline cherry-picking off the rush, not tic-tac-toe stuff in his game.
ReplyDeleteNot saying that it won't happen, but I think a "reasonable" projection would be closer to 10 goals to cover the bet with anything better being gravy.
I'd rather have three Jones contracts on my team then Horcoff's.
ReplyDeleteSmarmy Boss said...
ReplyDelete"I'd rather have three Jones contracts on my team then Horcoff's."
Worst...Post...Ever...
Not really. His box cars are fine he has all of two seasons of NHL hockey under his belt.
ReplyDeleteHe was one of the few guys who didn't sit out injured and was forced into a role that was above his abilities down the stretch.
Horcoff has been pure garbage water for more games then Jones has played in this league.
I like Jones.
ReplyDeleteIf for no other reason he looks like Tom Gilbert, the way he ought to be.
I remember the Oilers when I started watching them again after years of blissfull post-Messier trade ignorance:
ReplyDeleteGuys like Grier, Moreau(I always used to like pulling for a dude named Ethan), and Laraque fighting regularly, plus Jason Smith on defence made me think all that team needed was a major talent transplant, well now they have the talent, but no Griers or Moreaus
to keep the opposition honest.
I like the fact that Jones is basically setting up as the poster boy for the 'saw him good' vs the 'advanced math' crowd. The debate should be lively and entertaining on this player all season long.
ReplyDeleteI agree with geowal that a regression to 5 goals seems particularly harsh but the SH% does seem more than a tad unsustainable. Personally, I like him to pot an even dozen this year. Players that go to the net hard DO get rewarded for it and I think Jones falls in that category.
LT, Lumley does seem a good comparable for Jones. The Lummer brought a lot of intangibles to the rink back in the day. If Jones can do the same, he may yet find a place in your heart if not in your spreadsheet.
Lee: Agreed. Plus Lumley went from 20 goals one season to 7 the next. :-)
ReplyDeleteOf course, he scored 32 the following season.....
"I'd rather have three Jones contracts on my team then Horcoff's."
ReplyDeleteI would rather have one Jones and zero Horcoff's.
Shooting % and all that but lets keep in mind that Sam Gagner has never scored 18 goals in 4 seasons and likely never will.
Shawn Horcoff's career high in 4 NCAA seasons was 14 goals.
In 11 NHL seasons Shawn Horcoff has reached 18 goals twice.
Dump on Jones.. that's fine but why gloss marginal players like Pouliot, Horcoff, Gagner?
Lets keep in mind that both Gagner and Horcoff have failed to reached LT's "reasonable expectations" 3 years in a row and will likely fail to meet the lowest level once again.
Jones also had more hits last year than Horcoff has in the last 5 years combined.
ReplyDeleteQuite sad, actually.
Traktor:
ReplyDeleteWhat's wrong, don't you like the captain?
Lee: Agreed. Plus Lumley went from 20 goals one season to 7 the next. :-)
ReplyDeleteOf course, he scored 32 the following season.....
13 of which Gretz banked in off his butt, back, glove, face, etc.
colin white on waivers from jersey. 1 yr left on $3 mill deal. 6'4 215 lbs, left shooting, 2:46/ game on pk. not sure about corsi and such but he may be an upgrade that costs us nothing
ReplyDeletePredicting that Jones will have more assists than goals ignores the fact that in every year (except one) he has played, including college, he has had more goals than assists - and its usually not close.
ReplyDeleteAnd the guy stays healthy.
I'll go with 14-8= 22 pts