What does he need to work on? He's a little shy in some of the physical areas of the ice and doesn't use his body like you'd like him to; he's also quick to exit the scoring zones and cheat for defense. A novel item in a teenager, but you'd like him to have better offensive instincts.
That's about the only negative things I can think of to say about Magnus Paajarvi. He's the Tesla Roadster: electric, fast and possibly too good to be true.
NHL Prediction for 11-12: 82, 20-20-40 (.488)
- What's so good about him? Well, there's a list. First, his physical skills are breathtaking. I geniunely believe that Hall's presence has obscured exactly how good this kid is going to be in the NHL. He's a freaking blur. He's got size and is a smart kid. Paajarvi really does abandon the offensive zones for defense, which I don't think is helping him at this point but can appreciate that it will make him a more complete player eventually. He's a beauty.
- What do the numbers say? Nice CorsiRel, good zone start/finish (+0.8%) and he showed glimpses of offensive brilliance despite a poor 5x5/60 points per game (1.36).
- His offense trails Hall, Eberle and Omark. Yes, but he didn't play a feature role until Omark arrived and then they had Gagner at center and that line bled profusely after being put together in December. I think it hurt all three players (MP, Gagner, Omark).
- Great. You're smarter than Renney. Well that's certainly untrue. However, there's evidence that the trio just didn't mesh (hey, it happens) and I suspect coach Renney will find better chemistry with more options. Remember, those three got together after the injuries started flushing the season.
- Who should he play with? I'd suggest Omark and Belanger would be a nice place to start, then Horcoff and Omark as a fallback selection.
- You said he wasn't a good match with Omark. No, I said that trio didn't work.
- Please explain. Allow me to link to an excellent Zona article which goes a long way to explaining his season. Very slow start, and then a strong finish with the Denver boot that was playing on that specific line.
- It's confusing. Yes, but Zona explains it well. He was dead in the water games 1-20, improved markedly through the season but "with or without you" points to Sam/Magnus not being a match.
- How does that happen? Same reason Gretzky-to-Kurri worked so well. Chemistry. We're going to be talking about chemistry for the next several seasons. All of these kids need to pair up and find their way, or risk being left behind.
- Will Paajarvi be a scorer? Don't know.
- What? Depends on his role. If Paajarvi finds chem with Hall and RNH then he'll have some big offensive seasons. If he and Lander turn into forecheckers from hell then it's a two-way role.
- Why are you so unsure? It would appear that this young man has a wide range of skills and that the team has exceptional options offensively that are of a similar age. It is his own bad dumb luck (and our good fortune) that he is so versatile.
- Okay. Where do you GUESS he'll be? A solid 2-way winger who can score 25 goals like clockwork while doing a lot of little things to help his team win.
- Solid defensively? He used to be a defenseman. That's why he cheats so much. He's a backwards forward but an absolute beauty. Roger Neilson would have made him into Craig Ramsay.
Sometimes I wish he was still a defenseman. He'd be a damn good one imo.
ReplyDeleteI'll just hope the offensive instincts get a bit better and then those 25-30 goal seasons should be plentiful.
If Paajarvi used to play defense, why no move him back there? After all, oilers have a glut of offensive prospects, and are fairly weak on the blue line. Moving him back seems to open up the forwars somewhat while addressing a weakness. Can anyone think of a reason why this has not / should not happen?
ReplyDeleteI <3 him.
ReplyDeleteHe's like my new Marty.
But good at hockey.
Pajarvi does not have "hands".
ReplyDeleteNever has.
His shooting percentage last season was 8.3% which was a high water mark for him.
In his final season in the SEL it was 7.5%.
Just for comparisons' sake here's a look at last season's rookie crop:
Grabner - 14.9
Skinner - 14.4
Marchand - 14.1
Stepan - 12.7
Couture - 12.6
Hall - 11.8
Eberle - 11.4
Ennis - 9.5
Shattenkirk - 8.3
Paajarvi - 8.3
Fowler - 8.1
You'll note that Pajarvi's shooting % was actually lower than a rookie defenseman and virtually tied with another.
That's not "hands".
At the World Championships he was publicly called out by Sweden's coach for being a perimeter player and anyone who watched him play last season could see that.
Scott Cullen published a list today of the player who had the most "hits per 60" and the least "hits per 60" in the NHL.
Paajarvi is on the list at #399.
Only 23 forwards in the entire league were softer than Paajarvi.
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=373131
(yeah, yeah I know how imperfect the "hits" stat is but let's call a spade a spade.)
He's big, he skates fast but he's
hardly "too good to be true".
Somebody better call up Bob Murray and tell him Cam Fowler doesn't have hands.
ReplyDeleteDSF used Hansen (yeah, him) as a comparison for MPS before, so let that sink in.
ReplyDeleteMPS doesn't play tough enough to play D. He' be run out of town faster than you can say Tom Gilbert.
ReplyDeleteHis biggest weakness to my eye, LT, is his hands. You have that as an attribute. I do not. If he was a natural scorer, he would force his way onto the top two lines over the next couple of years. Hopefully he does, but I doubt it he ever turns into a Simon Gagné type.
However, he is still a beauty player, with a wide range of other skills and should at the very least be Dvorak + down the road.
I wish they would've inaugurated him to NA hockey in OKC. Of all the rooks, he seemed the most unsure of himself. As the season wore on it, he seemed to gain confidence when chasing the puck and traveling into tight checking quarters. I still think he'll be a couple years away before we see how much drive he has to the hard earned areas, but I suspect he'll be just fine.
ReplyDeleteAs you mentioned LT, he is overshadowed here and probably always will be. That's fine, but it doesn't take away the marvelous player that he is.
geowal said...
ReplyDeleteSomebody better call up Bob Murray and tell him Cam Fowler doesn't have hands.
Just checking to see if you know Fowler is a defenseman and that it's a little tougher to score from the blueline than it is from in front of the net.
You know that, right?
I know some believe hits are an important stat, but I'm not one of them. I do agree that MP needs to be more physical (said it in the original post) but "hits" as measured by the NHL don't hold much water.
ReplyDeletePaajarvi's scoring rates in the SEL were low, and too they were low in the NHL. Do we have a lot of evidence that low percentages by teenagers in the SEL and NHL dooms them to offensive inability as they mature?
Asking because I don't know.
DSF
ReplyDeleteUnderstand completely. He is total crap!
Mind you he accomplished much more at age 20 than Ryan Kesler. Kesler got 16 points in split duties AHL/NHL. Probably not a good comparable because Kesler had bad hands too.
Or is it just easier to talk out of your ass?
Fake Frog said...
ReplyDeleteDSF used Hansen (yeah, him) as a comparison for MPS before, so let that sink in.
Once you take a look at TOI in ES,PP and PK you'll see Hansen had zero PP time to Paajarvi's 1:50/G and Hansen spent 2:24/G killing penalties, the comparison is much closer than you might think.
Paajarvi certainly is younger but he's been carrying that shooting percentage around for a long while.
Assuming his shooting percentage stays around 8.3, he would need to get 250 shots on goal to score the 20 goals Lowetide has him pegged for.
25 players in the NHL had 250 shots on goal last season.
I doubt a third line player on the Oilers will record 250 shots on goal.
(Taylor Hall led the Oilers with 186)
@LT.
ReplyDeleteThere are outliers but looking at his scoring rates in the past it is not an "arrow" poitning in the right direction.
Course compared to MPS, Kesler can't skate either!
ReplyDeleteReally basic concepts like facts must piss you right off
DSF: Zona has an item up comparing MP to the Sedins. Is he sniffing glue?
ReplyDeleteI just want to say I wrote the hands comment before seeing DSF's post. It was the knock on his scouting report, and it was a true call IMHO. That said, he's still going to get lots of points, and he might even get his good wrister off more consistently as he matures. I do think that 25 goals is likely top end for him, but there's nothing wrong with a 25 goal scorer. All depends on how he wants to play the game. Smyth has a crap shot and consistently pots more than 30 a year because of where he plays (about a foot from the goal line, depending on where Giguère is.
ReplyDeleteAnd I have to disagree with the perimeter comment. That might have been his play at the Worlds, but in the last half of the past season he was in and about the crease alot to my eye.
I also want to say that by "hands" I mean creative. It seems as though "hands" means goal scorer based on this thread and I wanted to point out that in my world (created 1971) "hands" means very skilled.
ReplyDeleteRNH has "hands." Like that.
I find it funny that Derek is comparing MPS to the Sedin's, considering less than a week ago he was complaining about people doing comps to get a desired result.
ReplyDeleteJust checking to see if you know Fowler is a defenseman and that it's a little tougher to score from the blueline than it is from in front of the net.
ReplyDeleteYou know that, right?
Just checking to see if you know how to italicize comments, to allow more ease for the readers.
You know that, right?
Grandpa.
@ PJO.
ReplyDeleteYou've obviously mistaken me for someone who cares what you think.
May I suggest an itinerary that involves sex and travel.
@LT
ReplyDeleteYes he is.
There are a huge number of variables he doesn't account for.
Of course Paajarvi's offense looks more impressive on the lowest scoring team in the league but it doesn't account for the role each player had on the team (context).
For example, Paajarvi played almost
300 more minutes at ES (or about an extra 20 games at Paajarvi's average ESTOI/G) and yet was only able to outscore Daniel at evens by 25 points to 20.
And, of course, given more PP time, Daniel outscored Paajarvi
(Daniel 10G 4A 14p) (Paajarvi (3G 6A 9P).
Now, a 5 point difference might not seem like much, but it is, in fact, statistically significant since Paajarvi only scored at a rate of 64% of Daniel.
Carry that difference through a career and it's a huge number of points.
Also worth noting that Daniel in his rookie season played 12:59/G
while Paajarvi played 15:23/G.
Over an 82 game season, that's an extra 216 minutes or, once again, at Paajarvi's average TOI/G, an extra 15 games.
So, they finished tied in points at 34 but how many more points would Sedin have scored with an extra 15 games?
But context is a two-way street, DSF. How many points might MP have managed with a better team?
ReplyDeleteMPS had 15 goals in his rookie season. As he gets more comfortable and assertive on North American ice, it's not out of realm to expect his SV% to improve to the ~10% range and goal totals to improve.
ReplyDeleteHe certainly has the speed to create more breakaways/scoring chances.
Something like this is suggestive of having creativity and hands (starts at 0:20)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2YWOGoOcmg
Even if he settles in as a 40-50 point guy, I think he'll be a valuable cog that helps the team win.
Wikipedia defines a troll as one with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response.
Grandpa DSF is the epitome of a troll.
@LT
ReplyDeleteIf you're then talking about assists, it isn't much prettier.
Once again, last year's rookie crop.
Assists:
Shattenkirk - 34
Skinner - 32
Fowler - 30
Ennis - 29
Eberle - 25
Stepan - 24
Couture - 24
Hall - 20
Marchand - 20
Paajarvi - 19
Grabner - 18
Blogger Lowetide said...
ReplyDeleteBut context is a two-way street, DSF. How many points might MP have managed with a better team?
What would his role have been on a better team?
I would suggest it's highly likely he would have been in the AHL.
A three way intersection...gadzooks.
You've obviously mistaken me for someone who cares what you think.
ReplyDeleteYou do care.
Immensely.
Otherwise, you would have ignored my post.
May I suggest an itinerary that involves sex and travel.
Irony is so rich, given you were averaging north of 30 posts per day on HF before you got banned for what was consensus trolling behavior.
The same behavior you have brought upon to this blog.
It's quite sad, actually.
Once again, last year's rookie crop.
ReplyDeleteConveniently ignoring most of those guys are 20 or older.
Well, Zona and I agree on Gagner and Paajarvi. Pass the drapes!
ReplyDeleteLowetide said...
ReplyDeleteWell, Zona and I agree on Gagner and Paajarvi. Pass the drapes!
Would you like Damask or Ultrasuede?:)
The last time I smoked the Oilers hadn't won a Stanley. What do you recommend?
ReplyDelete@ LT.
ReplyDeleteHow about something in a "Faux Silk"?
Sears has them at clear out prices.
DSF: You must have a lot.
ReplyDeleteYes PJO...some were and some weren't.
ReplyDeleteThe thing about the older guys is they have something in common.
They spent time in the AHL learning how to be professional hockey players.
Fancy that.
SH% Can vary a lot.
ReplyDeleteBrooks Laich used to have ''no hands'' and shoot 7%.
He had 3 seasons 11,5 +.
Now he was back to 7.
Nicklas Backstrom shot 9% his first year. Etc etc.
Thing is FPV...it tends to regress to the mean.
ReplyDeleteAt no level of hockey has Paajarvi hit 10%.
It's unlikely, though possible, that he will in the NHL.
That hardly means he is a bad hockey player but expectations for him likely need to change.
He has all the tools to be a very good third line player who kills penalties and chips in some offence.
But I wonder how long it will take the Oiler brain trust to realize that.
re: perimeter play - From my "saw him good" perspective, MPS started out the season driving hard to the net with speed and showed well. Then he got rocked by Regher one game, and was gun shy for a long while. Towards the end of the season, whether because he got confidence back, found chemistry, or was leaned on more for offense due to the injuries, he looked like he was starting to take it to the net again. He's never going to be a hitter, but if he won't need to be if he ever figures out how to take it to the net like a certain G. Anderson did.
ReplyDeleteI feel confident in Paajarvi, but he seems like he could end up alot like cogs. Super fast, but thats it. If he learns to use his size then he'll be usefull even if that's all he is fast.
ReplyDelete@ Willaim.
ReplyDeleteGlenn Anderson was the hammer, not the nail.
Huge difference.
They spent time in the AHL learning how to be professional hockey players.
ReplyDeleteMPS was playing against men at 17-18.
He did remarkably well as a rookie in the NHL at 19.
One can assert he developed over the past year, and comparing him to older players (on better teams) is foolish.
I feel confident in Paajarvi, but he seems like he could end up alot like cogs .
ReplyDeletePaajaarvi lead Sweden in the World Hockey Championships in scoring at 18.
It's certainly possible MPS doesn't become into an elite 1st liner, but I strongly believe his ceiling is higher than Cogliano.
Shawn Horcoff scored goals in each of the Oilers first two games to start the 10-11 season.
ReplyDeleteWasn't one of these goals a result of Eberle banking a shot off his ass? :p
DSF: As PJO said it's skewed by MPS' competition.
ReplyDelete20-40-60 is still highly possible anyway.
13 out of 30 posts by DSF so far...
ReplyDeleteGood for the hit count, but seriously, shouldn't he be on a canucks board by now?
I feel like someone jumped the shark on this one...
DSF:
ReplyDeleteYes I'm aware Fowler is a defensemen, I hardly think it's an indictment that MP is tied with Shattenkirk and especially Fowler at SH%, it simply speaks to the obviously great "hands" that Fowler has always had. I'm under no illusions that MP will be a 40 goal scorer, but hardly think this list of your yours proves he doesn't have "hands". He's not a coke machine.
To continue your list a little further:
Shattenkirk - 8.3
Paajarvi - 8.3
Fowler - 8.1
---
Omark - 6.6.
That Omark fella must not have hands either.
@geowal
ReplyDeleteSo now you're going use another under performer as a benchmark?
Omark is 25 years old.
Jeff Skinner, as an 18 year old, scored 63 points in the NHL.
And, keeping with our Sedin comparison, Daniel scored 36 goals, 48 assists and 84 points in his 26 year old season.
I'm sure you are convinced Linus will keep pace.
Or perhaps something is wonky with these comparisons.
What do you think?
How in the world am I being accused of not accounting for time on ice when I did a points per time on ice comparison?
ReplyDeleteESP/60
Daniel Sedin 1.54
Magnus Pääjärvi 1.39
Henrik Sedin 1.34
PPP/60
Daniel Sedin 4.40
Magnus Pääjärvi 3.67
Henrik Sedin 2.62
I find it funny that Derek is comparing MPS to the Sedin's, considering less than a week ago he was complaining about people doing comps to get a desired result.
ReplyDeleteFeel free to work through the two comps and explain how I manufactured a result.
17 and 18 year old comps
19 year old comps
Look forward to hearing the response.
wangsted
ReplyDeletedescribes the nonsense going on in this thread pretty well.
By eye, and by points, PRV is doing pretty well as a rookie, in his first season in NA. We can worry if he does not measure up to fans of other teams in a couple of years.
@Coach pb9617
ReplyDeleteSorry, didn't mean it as an accusation. Just pointing out what I thought was a funny coincidence.
DSF: Zona has an item up comparing MP to the Sedins. Is he sniffing glue?
ReplyDeleteAt 17 MP had higher production
18 slightly lower
19 in the NHL producing at a better rate than 20 year old sedins.
How about omark.
LT look at Zetterburg (playing with Datsyk)and the Sedins at Age 23. Then look at omarks numbers.
Don't let stuart smalley feelings cloud Fact.
Coach the link to the tables are great.
ReplyDeleteOne problem Sedins 17 year old numbers are there 18 year season and 18 year are 19 year season.
Go to elite prospect.
Remeber when comparing MP is 7 months younger during these seasons.
17 Year: SEL
MP 17P/50GM .34ppg
HS 5p/39GM .13PPG
DS 13/45GM .29PPG
18 SEL:
MP 29P/49GM .59ppg
HS 34P/49GM .69PPG
DS 42/50 .82PPG
19
MP NHL 34/80 .425PPG
HS SEL 47/50 .94PPG
DS SEL 45/50 .9PPG
20 NHL:
MP ??????????
HS 29/82 .35PPG
DS 34/75 .45PPG
look at post for before he is ahead of the sedins and much younger.
Uneducated expectations are a product of HF clowns not this Blog.
PS: This is trending comparisons and you guys know this is what i love to look at.
ReplyDeleteOmark VS sedins and Zetterburg with Datsyk.
Omark better not go anywere.
It's fairly useless to look at the Sedins' early NHL numbers and use them as a comparable. That was the old NHL and they didn't explode until after the post-lockout rule changes that made it easier for guys like them to thrive.
ReplyDeleteYou can't look at a guy who is matching the Sedins' pre-lockout numbers and expect to see a similar jump in production. The rules won't be changing to make it easier for MP to thrive.
Commonfan: if Paajarvi was coming into the league in 2005-06, I think you'd have more of an argument, but the NHL has retreated hard away from the greater openness (and more numerous penalties) of the post-lockout game.
ReplyDeleteConsider goals per game:
2000-01: 5.51 GPG (Sedin's rookie)
2010-11: 5.59 GPG
That can't be enough to ding Paajarvi.
Ricki,
ReplyDeleteI gave up on ages and started using draft year as the divider. No matter how I divvy the ages, someone bitches about it.
DSF sure has the bull by the numbers.
ReplyDeleteFor a statistician, a careful rendering of the numbers is the beginning of interpretation, not the end of the story. Because the NHL records shots, "having hands" means shooting percentage; it doesn't mean puck protection, trapping the puck along the boards, snagging skittle passes, or batting down rink-wides in the neutral zone while grinding ice on the back check.
Moderate position: if you can't measure it, it doesn't exist.
Extreme position: if you don't measure it, it doesn't exist.
DSF also thinks that a player lining up as forward is playing the forward position. It says that right there! He concedes that shooting percentage is a different statistic for D-men and forwards, but he doesn't concede that maybe Renney was happy with MPS playing 2/3rds forward, 1/3 defense. I wouldn't be discouraging that ratio as coach trying to fit Omark onto the game card in his rookie season.
I'm sure we at least 1/3 of a D-man short of a horse team nearly every freaking minute MPS was on the ice over the last 20 games of the season, where 20 is the largest number I can use on a polite forum.
The 2006 Oilers were a Cinderella team if you take the regular season statistics at face value. The 0.5 GAA gold-tending deficit was easily fixed with a roster addition. Add that back retrospectively to the beginning of the season, that was no Cinderella team. It wasn't a ringer, either, but the kind of team a better teams fears because of the tools available. Compare that to another team whose regular season results were roughly the same, where you couldn't address the problem with surgery at a single position, if you dare.
MPS is not lacking size, speed, intelligence, or hand-eye coordination. Unlike many young offensive players, he isn't cheating positionally to inflate his boxcars. In the context of rookie shindig perhaps the coaching staff decided to leave that correction to his sophomore year. Is there such as thing as too much back check on a team up to the eyeballs in young studs? It's the gambler's fallacy to believe that numbers are bound by history. Perhaps the coaches believe he is still young enough to adapt his offensive game on his strong foundation.
He's exactly the kind of player who might tear up his old norms. Or not. Even in the best case, it's a coin flip. Far too soon to slot MPS in as a career third liner, except by a third tier coach.
DSF:
ReplyDeleteJeff Skinner is a helluva prospect. Good for him. That doesn't make MP a bad one.
I've made no references to the Sedins whatsoever. Imo the similarities largely end with their being Swedish.
My point w.r.t. Omark being that I don't think anybody, though by the sounds of it maybe except you, would accuse him of not having "hands". Despite a SH% of only 6.6 in his debut year.
I don't think SH% fairly categorizes either of these players' potential, except their ability to achieve very high goal's scored totals.
Well said Deadman
ReplyDeleteMP shift count jump in the 20+ range occured at the start of March.
ReplyDeleteHe started to play with quality players March 8th nad started to drive to the net with more consistency.
Horcoff and Hall went down both gone by march 11. MP got a Minutes push with omark starting March 13.
And they both answered.
MP Shooting % Start of march to season end. 19GM 5G 59Shots 8.5% a 250 shots/Season rate.
From March 13:
13GM 5G 47Shots 10.6% 300sh/sn
When MP was playing with a quality pocession player he was looking like a 25G 25A player. There were 42 25/25 Forwards last year.
I would be real happy with 14 even minutes and 3 minutes PP with omark next year.
Irony is so rich, given you were averaging north of 30 posts per day on HF before you got banned for what was consensus trolling behavior.
ReplyDeleteThe same behavior you have brought upon to this blog.
It's quite sad, actually.
Says the guy who has 15 banned accounts on Oilfans credited to him - if that's not trolling to the highest degree, I don't know what is. Pot, meet kettle, you're black.
It's quite ironic, actually.