Linus Omark is unique.
Omark's wizardry is potent and I believe he's going to force his way up the roster this season. The depth chart says Hemsky and Eberle are ahead of him and those two are splendid talents, so one of the three may have to change positions.
Linus Omark was productive as an NHL rookie. His 5x5/60 number ranked 4th on the team and his CorsiRel was 3rd among Oiler forwards.
Remember that old Oiler coaching line about "three scoring lines?" If Omark is third on your RW depth chart then you have three scoring lines.
NHL Prediction for 11-12: 70, 13-27-40 (.571)
- He's going to score 40 points from the third line? Plus a lot of powerplay time. I think Omark will be close to the team leaders in PP time for 11-12.
- Which center will he play with? Probably all of them over the season. I'd guess that Belanger and Paajarvi might make a good combination.
- He's making a big jump in points. Not really, I just have him hanging around all season. He had .529 points per game a year ago.
- How does he compare to Hemsky and Eberle 5x5/60? Hemsky (2.88) is still the king but the two rookies also showed well: Eberle (1.82) Omark (1.78) both had fine rookie seasons. Hemsky's EV 5x5 as a rookie was 2.26--that includes 5x5 and 4x4.
- So you think Omark will be a better offensive player than Eberle? Don't know. I'd say they are both exceptional young talents. Eberle posted his number at a much younger age, that would imply he will have the better career but there are all kinds of factors.
- Like? Injury, role each will play moving forward, quality of linemates, that kind of thing.
- Why are you so strong on him? By eye and by math he appears to be a real hockey player. A guy like Nilsson looked all world with the puck one minute and then disappeared for the rest of the game. Omark flies sorties every shift. They don't work out all of the time, but there's a tremendous amount of try. He's hard on the puck and works like a bugger. He can stickhandle in a phone booth and can beat people wide and inside. On a team with crazy skill, Omark is his own unique individual. He's his own man, very confident and skilled.
- Do you like him more than Paajarvi? No. However, I think Omark is a better offensive player.
- Right now. Right. MP is just a kid, he has miles to go before he's Omark's age. But Omark is a quality player in his own right.
- What does he have to work on? All rookies have work to do in terms of where they are on the ice and where they turn the puck over. Omark can scoot and pursues the puck well, so it's mostly about positioning.
- Could he play with RNH? I don't know if the Oilers have a LW who is responsible and fast enough to stay with them. Smyth is the obvious candidate but he's been cheating for offense some. It would be an interesting trio to run out there in pre-season..
- What about Gagner? I didn't like Sam together with the Swedes, they bled a lot. I think a lot of it had to do with familiarity and maybe they can overcome it. I do think it's the most likely trio Omark will be part of coming out of the draft.
Love the series so far, LT!
ReplyDeleteThis is one player I could see the team under-valuing and getting "Sataned" in an ill-advised trade. You're very right LT - he's a unique and ballsy kid who I hope sticks around for a long time.
ReplyDeleteThat kid kinda reminds me David Desharnais.
ReplyDeleteI mean that as a compliment, of course.
11. Could he play with RNH? I don't know if the Oilers have a LW who is responsible and fast enough to stay with them. Smyth is the obvious candidate but he's been cheating for offense some. It would be an interesting trio to run out there in pre-season.
ReplyDeleteLT, how is that LW not Magnus? And he and Omark seemed destined to share a C. Wow I'm getting excited to see RNH and all the top 9F combos that are becoming possible with this team!
This is one player I could see the team under-valuing and getting "Sataned" in an ill-advised trade.
ReplyDeleteIts more likely a spot will open up when Hemmer gets traded at the deadline.
Saw RNH in an interview today. He is up to 175 lbs. Nice.
hags: I would hope the Oilers don't play RNH with Paajarvi and Omark at evens. All kinds of talent but Gagner had a helluva time with them a year ago CF/CA.
ReplyDeleteI suppose we will be likely seeing the super Swedes with Belanger or Horcs to start, unless they get split up. But when you look at Hall-Ebs and Smytty-Hemmer, I think it's unlikely that happens at first. The key really is whether RNH is a Oiler or a Rebel.
ReplyDeleteThe RE Horcs post has me a bit rattled as your projection of Horcs losing any type of role in a year or two rings too close to the truth. And that's a tough pill for all the die hard Horcoff fans like myself. When the Belanger signing was made, (and expecting Lander to win a job sooner than later) this was what I feared would be the case. I sort of thought maybe a 1 year deal for Belanger instead of the 3 would have kept the competition at C going a bit longer. But there's a lot of hockey to be played out to know where all these Cs will be slot in 3 years and I wouldn't bet against Horcs staying in the mix. Plus I think he would have the character to accept a 4line job at 34-35 yrs if we are a contender.
I had never even heard of Omark till a post on this site a couple years ago. I like the fancy moves and love the compete level.
ReplyDeleteI remember Miro too and certainly, that was a mistake. Don't think all three of Omark, Hemmer and Eberle are around for the long term. A top pairing d man would be nice for one of them.
Saw RNH in an interview today. He is up to 175 lbs. Nice.
ReplyDeletebut he didn't mention that it's mostly beer and natcho weight...
Omark reminds me of Versteeg when he was on Chicago. Eventually he will force the team to either move him or make room for him.
ReplyDeleteOmark: The guy who had to climb atop of the moutain while his ennemies fell of the first cliff.
ReplyDeleteLove Omark. Still don't see where and how he fits. Ok maybe if Hemsky's right leg falls off this season.
ReplyDeletebut he didn't mention that it's mostly beer and natcho weight...
ReplyDeleteWell he will be more durable than Horc then.
Having too many gifted skill guys who play hard on the puck on a team is never good. Let's hope they trade one of 'em.
ReplyDeleteOr maybe, there is a place for all of Hemsky, Eberle, Omark, PRV, RNH and Hall on the team. Gagner can stay too.
Bar Qu: Hope that was sarcasm. Where's your bookie thingy?
ReplyDeleteWhich part?
ReplyDeleteYeah, sarcasm. I forget to turn it off sometimes.
I think the Oil would do well to keep all those guys and add judiciously through FA signings.
Agreed, but I think he's going to end up with more goals than assists.
ReplyDeleteRenney put the shackles on his stickhandling to the net last year, to more roundly develop him into an NHL forward.
Once Linus earns the icetime and especially power play time, he'll be more the shooter he was in the AHL and less the behind the net passer he was the last 2-3 months of last season.
Horcoff, Eberle, Hall
ReplyDeleteGagner, Smyth, Hemsky
Belanger, Pajaarvi, Omark
I'd be pretty happy if the Oilers roll with that to start off the season. At least 1 veteran 2 way player for each line. Also that's pretty much 3 lines that can score...hopefully they can not get scored on too often as well.
4th line is going to be interesting, lots of bodies and no clear standouts among them. Brule, Eager, Jones, and Hordichuk will have to duke it out I suppose, with Hordichuk likely the man out. That is until someone like Hartikainen or Lander starts kicking out the jams.
Defence though, that's another matter altogether, and keeper is the Rocky Horror Picture Show waiting to happen. Much like Tim Curry in drag, it might be interesting to see, but it won't be pretty.
Oilers Fans:
ReplyDelete2008 - We need some good forwards! Trade some of our good Defense?
2009 - Where the hell are those good forwards!?
2010 - We traded the defense, the forwards didn't get any better, so now we need good defensemen too?!?!
2011 - We've got too many good forwards! Trade some for Defense?
Linus Omark - The attitude that Oilers hockey has been missing since Messier left, or another piece that will be moved too soon for not enough of a return?
Omark's attitude worries me actually as I think he's the kind of player that is perfect for platooning and seems pretty resistant to that. When the Oil need some size and grit in the lineup, I'd prefer to see players like Hartikainen, Eager and Hordichuk drawing in over players like Omark or MPS. With our two young swedes, I'd hope to see Renney picking his spots and inserting them into the lineup when the odds and line matchups are tilted in their favor.
ReplyDeleteIMHO, if MPS and Omark spend 30 games in the pressbox this season, that's not a bad thing. Platooning prospects like this seems to work out pretty well for Detroit as their young guys are constantly fighting like hell to get in or stay in the lineup.
@ Lee
ReplyDeletePlatooning like they do in the Motor City is only feasable when the rest of the team is made up of vets who have earned their time.
When 2/3 of the top 9 is going to be under 25, more than 1/2 is under 22, it's really hard to justify that the guys you are platooning deserve to sit when these other kids are learning on the job and getting to make mistakes.
IF Renney is willing to sit anyone, that's a different story. But I beleive you're talking about just the botom 6 guys, which on this team... I think that would create a big issue with chemistry.
We're suddenly gathering a lot of guys who can hang onto the puck while being confronted by the opposition D (Omark being best among them, probably the best I've seen). We need to use this asset in our offensive (and defensive if you think about it) schemes. I hope our coach is smart enough to figure that out.
ReplyDeleteJordan, I'm of the opinion that the Oil have 3 legitimate Top 6 players (Smyth, Hemsky, Hall) and everyone else in the lineup should be competing to stay in that lineup on a regular basis. I think competition breeds a far better culture than entitlement.
ReplyDeleteAside from the Red Wings, you can also look to other sports for how effective avoiding the entitlement culture can be. For example, Randy Moss complains to the Pats that he wanted his salary negotiated. Within the week, Moss is gone from the Pats. Problem solved and the rest of the team stays a 'team.' And where is Moss now? Out of the league and replaced by Ochocinco on the Pats roster. Hey Randy, how did that petulance work out for ya?
I still believe that the ideal centre for him is Lander. Go al swede. Lander has speed, two way instincts and can play the game on the same level while being a defensive presence. I hope to see Lander with the two swedes for a few games pre season just to see how they do chemistry wise.
ReplyDeleteI hope to see Lander with the two swedes for a few games pre season just to see how they do chemistry wise.
ReplyDeleteHas Don Cherry taught us nuthin? Dos wimpy Swedes will get moyderd - moyderd I tells ya.
Lee, I respect you seeing those players as top 3 players. I disagree on Smyth (I think he's lost alittle due to age) but understand the hope that he will recover.
ReplyDeleteI also agree that having that kind of culture when you can take a player out when he's not playing well and replace him with someone else is desirable. It is key in a championship-calibre team - making the sucess of the team more important than individual success.
I question whether management will allow that to happen. If Eberle takes a step back this year, do you think Tambi/Lowe/Katz will be willing to sit him for 3-4 home games?
I have my doubts. And if you won't do that, the idea of earning your time just starts to stink like bad maneure.
Lander, Belanger or Horcoff would all make decent centres for him and MP.
seems like the type of guy who's destined not to be here for long.
ReplyDeleteat first blush we are only three deep at RW ao if 83 gets moved then 23's in a catbird seat.
but, 23 might be a guy who gets some decent numbers in a sheltered role - no one's gonna match him up - and then you decide if he can do it against real comp and you only pay him if you think he can.
meanwhile guys like 4 14 are taking up bit swatches of the payrole and bigger roles in the process.
best case is he blows up and we move him for a real D..ultimately the winger depth will have to be pared for some pitching.
Ray Ratto
ReplyDeleteRattoCSN Ray Ratto
by mirtle
Colin White to Sharks. One year, $1M. Beat Pittsburgh to the draw. More at @CSNBayArea.com within minutes
38 minutes ago
Looks like the arbitrator didn't just split the difference between player and team proposals for Weber after all: $7.5 million.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure that wasn't in the Preds' plans for this year.
SJS D corps:
ReplyDeleteBoyle
Burns
Vlasic
Murray
Demers
White
Vandermeer
Braun
D was SJS's weakness last year.
Now I can't think of too many better. PHI, VAN, PIT, maybe.
Murray, Vandy and White are a little slow, which is a concern.
Add to that top 7 forwards of Thornton, Marleau, Havlat, Pavelski, Couture, Pavelski, Clowe and Handzus.
SJS is +600 on bet 365 to win WC and +1200 to win the cup.
I think that's worth a couple units each.
Wilson is very good at his job.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete@Jordan, I agree with you on Smyth. In my post, I said he, Hall and Hemsky are the only proven Top 6 players on the roster IMO, and I think Smyth is more in the range of 4-6 than he is 1-3 at this point in his career.
ReplyDeleteI also agree on Eberle. Does Renney have the courage to sit him when he's not playing well? I'm not sure he does. I guarantee if Bill Belichik was a hockey coach, he would and I think this is the sort of culture the Oilers need to start embracing. This league is far too competitive now for anyone to have a free ride. Earn it every night or watch from press row. It's so simple in theory but so hard in practice.
Where entitlement leads is so damaging though (Penner going to sleep on occasion, Khabibulin getting starts when he clearly doesn't deserve it, Tom Gilbert having a roster spot - lol), it HAS to be worth the short-term downside of pissing off an Eberle or Omark for a game or two for the massive upside of keeping every player in the lineup properly motivated and believing that good play leads to more ice time?
Lee,
ReplyDeleteCurious which evaluation leads you see Hall as a top 6 forward that would exclude Eberle or Horcoff.
@WG
ReplyDeleteCombination of factors. Consistency, production, durability and upside.
I think Eberle will be a legitimate Top 6 forward on this team very soon. Right now however, I think he's a tad bit behind Hall who was literally making something happen on every single shift late last year before he went down. Horcoff doesn't deliver the production, upside or durability of late to be considered a top 6 forward IMHO.
On a side note, when an org is looking at depth charts and assessing players, I think it's important if they intend to contend for the Cup to look at not only their own depth charts but the charts of the teams they'll need to compete against and beat to accomplish that goal. The Oil could well be telling themselves that Horcoff is a Top 2 center, Smid a Top 4 defenseman or Dubnyk a frontline goalie. I'm sure that's likely the case if you're the worst team in the league. It's definitely not where you need to be to climb into the upper echelon.
One of the inevitable, if not outright desirable, outcomes of this rebuild should be the cream rising to the top and the dregs getting pushed down the depth chart before ultimately being flushed out of the org altogether. I don't pine for the days when Horcoff, Hemsky, Gilbert, Smid, etc. are no longer playing for this team. I look forward to those days as that should signal the time when we truly have top tier talent in those positions and are ready to compete at the highest level.
Combination of factors. Consistency, production, durability and upside.
ReplyDeleteHere's some production:
10/11 Oiler forwards pts/60 5v5
Hemsky 2.88
Gagner 1.91
Eberle 1.79
Omark 1.78
Hall 1.78
Horcoff 1.47
Here's some durability from last year, top 6 forwars in gp.
Cogliano 82
Jones 81
MPS 80
Eberle 69
Gagner 68
Fraser 67
You sure about your criteria?
@WG, read my post. I really don't care how these players measure up in isolation against other Oilers. Just because these players get this ice time with the worst team in the league, it doesn't mean they'd get it elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteIs Horcoff a Top 6 producer on a Stanley Cup contender? Is Hemsky sufficiently durable to be a Top 6 forward on a Stanley Cup contender? I highly doubt it in both instances. That should be the criteria we're striving for, not continuing to muddle along with rolling out our juniors against the better team's varsity.
I'm here to be entertained...he entertains me. Give him some caffeine pills and let him go!
ReplyDeleteLee: Jonathan Willis had a good series of posts on this over at Oilers Nation. He compared the Oilers' roster to that of the Bruins. I'm running out so I don't have time to look up the link, but do a quick search and take a look.
ReplyDeleteI'm all for being entertained, but drugging anyone for entertainment is not cool.
ReplyDeleteNot cool in Baseball.
Not cool in "pro" wrestling
Not cool in random videos of ramdom athletes abusing anything in their off hours.
I think after spending a few years watching Grebs' acid trips that people would have gotten over wanting to see drugs on the Oilers produce something "entertaining".
Besides, I expect this club will be plenty entertaining without the pills - esp. with MVP in net.
Is Eberle a Top 6 forward on the Oil? Without a doubt. Would he be a Top 6 forward on the Boston Bruins? If Tyler Seguin wasn't, I think you'd be hard pressed to make a case for Eberle doing much better.
ReplyDeleteHopefully in 1 or 2 more years, many of the Oil's current Top 6ers will be legitimate Top 6ers (i.e. capable of holding those spots on the better teams in the league). Right now, they get that honour and icetime cos quite frankly, the hometown honks bobo.
Is Horcoff a Top 6 producer on a Stanley Cup contender? Is Hemsky sufficiently durable to be a Top 6 forward on a Stanley Cup contender? I highly doubt it in both instances.
ReplyDeleteFor a split second there, I thought of posting something like "Spring 2006 says hi" in response to this, then quickly remembered that we're at least 4 years and about 6 injury-shortened seasons removed from that being a legitimate point.
However, it might still be legit to point out that not many people would have answered yes to those questions in Fall 05, but it still worked out. You never know who might surprise us...
Nah, that doesn't really work either.
Reality sucks.
Thanks Cactus, will do.
ReplyDelete//Is Horcoff a Top 6 producer on a Stanley Cup contender? Is Hemsky sufficiently durable to be a Top 6 forward on a Stanley Cup contender? I highly doubt it in both instances?//
ReplyDeleteDid I some how end up in a parallel universe or on "Another Earth" where 2006 didn't happen?
I think game 7 of the Stanley Cup final makes the team a "contender".
Thanks Godot, does that mean the Habs should suit up Maurice Richard and Guy Lafleur again? Apparently they were pretty good players in their heyday as well. Once a contender, always a contender...
ReplyDeleteHemsky is 28 next week. Horcoff is 33 in a month. Not exactly over the hill. If they are healthy, they are capable top 6 forwards on a contending team.
ReplyDeleteHemsky, Horcoff, and Smyth/Penner could go PvP against pretty much anyone.
Yes, durability is a bit of a question with regard to either. Ability is not.
I've stated earlier up the thread that Hemsky is a legitimate Top 6 forward "if he can stay healthy" which is also the caveat you've added for both these players. I'm afraid we'll have to disagree on Horcoff.
ReplyDeleteThe bigger point I'm making here is that sport is not a sentimentality business, it's a performance based, 'what you have you done for lately' business. In particular, that credo is aggressively applied by perennial contenders while pretenders to the throne have this disquieting tendency to hang onto fading players too long in the hopes that they'll rekindle days of glory long since past.
The Flyers seems mental to Oiler fans as an org with the aggressive way they turn over their roster, but damned it all if they don't seem to be always contending.
An even better example exists in the NFL where the Eagles and Patriots regularly cut loose star players often before they start trending downward to replace them with younger, hungrier and often less expensive alternatives. Sports is a ruthless business, especially if you want to win on a consistent basis.
But if you truly want to look for root causes as to why the Oil finished dead last overall the last two seasons, the under performance of its so called lynchpins has to be considered as massively contributing factors.
Lee is a smart man.
ReplyDeleteBut if you truly want to look for root causes as to why the Oil finished dead last overall the last two seasons, the under performance of its so called lynchpins has to be considered as massively contributing factors.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers have how many players who could be considered lynchpins at this point? Whitney, Horcoff, and Hemsky?
Schitzo, I would think Tambi was counting on Khabibulin to be a lynchpin, no? I would think Gilbert factors into the underperforming core conversation as well.
ReplyDelete@WG, read my post. I really don't care how these players measure up in isolation against other Oilers. Just because these players get this ice time with the worst team in the league, it doesn't mean they'd get it elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteThe points are per 60 min of ice time so getting more ice time doesn't factor into it.
On better teams these players would get easier ice time wouldn't they?
Just wanted to know your criteria to see if you were arbitarily assigning tags to the players or not.
I think Eberle's CG/60 (clutch goals per 60) alone make him a top 6 guy.
I think this blog should be renamed to L. O. Tide. to give it a more positive spin to the name.
ReplyDeleteNo WG, Horcoff or Eberle wouldn't get similar production with better teams because they'd be playing with lesser teammates. They get time with the Halls and Hemskys here because we don't have anyone better to give those guys.
ReplyDeleteAs far as Eberle, he's not the hill I'm going to die on. I already said he's very close to being a legitimate Top 6er if not one already. But go ahead, make a case for him being a Top 6 player on the Bruins. That would be impressive. Here's a hint: it's going to take more than offensive production for him to get that spot. He may need to kick ass defensively as well.
Here's a hint: it's going to take more than offensive production for him to get that spot. He may need to kick ass defensively as well.
ReplyDeleteWhy do I need a hint?
You're posting lots about what you think, so I wanted to know your criteria.
Now I know.