Tuesday, August 9, 2011

RE 11-12: Jordan Eberle

This moment will be remembered forever by Oiler Nation. Jordan Eberle scoring the goal of the year in game one, a sign of things to come for an organization and fanbase that badly needed heroes and moments of glory.

It was followed by 81 miles of bad road, but that one night--no, that one moment--breathed life into the promise of a brand new day.

If you think that's a lot to put on this young man's shoulders, you ain't seen nothing yet.



NHL prediction for 11-12: 82, 22-30-52 (.634)

  1. Finally a 20 goal scorer. Eberle scored 18 a year ago, predicting 22 in a full season isn't earth shattering.
  2. However, you are not projecting the Oilers to have many 20 goal men. No, just three.
  3. What is his future? I think he's going to be the guy who emerges as a leader on this team. He's a little older than Hall and RNH, maybe just old enough to influence the group. The thing about a guy like Eberle is that he was so famous before he arrived in the NHL; that may mean that his leadership skills are established for the younger set. It's a guess, but I think he's going to be the spokesman for the group in a lot of areas.
  4. You think Eberle is going to get a lot of PP time? Actually, I have two RW's (Hemsky, Omark) getting more actual minutes than Eberle 5x4. He's going to play in all situations, though. His anticipation should be a real plus on special teams.
  5. So he's doing all this projected scoring at evens? Well, I do have Eberle getting some PP time but he's also going to be on Hall's line for most of the season. That duo (Hall-Eberle) should be able to do some impressive things this season no matter who plays center.
  6. They'll face tough competition. According to Desjardins, Hall-Eberle faced tough opposition as rookies. I really do think Hall-Eberle are special players. Not Crosby special, but quality young players with their futures straight ahead.
  7. Do you think they'll face the toughs again? Maybe. Renney didn't really do much to protect them a year ago, but part of the reason was he didn't have the horses. This fall, Renney could protect a Hall-Eberle line by running Horcoff or Belanger with Smyth and Hemsky.
  8. Is that what Renney will do this season? I think he may from time to time. However, it seems to me the Oilers have lusted (for years now) for three scoring lines. They may be able to cobble together a motley crew based on the group coming to training camp in the fall.
  9. And the keys are Hall, Eberle and Hemsky? I'd add Omark. The fact that Omark exists on this roster means that Edmonton has enough torque to ice three (potentially) impressive lines. And let's not forget Ryan Smyth, he's going to be a vital part of this team in 11-12.  
  10. What are the lines? Don't know. The "duo's" are likely to be the wingers: Hall/Eberle, Paajarvi/Omark and Smyth/Hemsky. Then you have four centers (Gagner, RNH, Horcoff and Belanger) and I better list Ryan Jones here to avoid the riot.
  11. But Eberle and Hall are together for sure? I'd think so. Last season they played well together, Eberle fell off after the Hall injury. Before the injury to Hall on March 3, Eberle was 52gp, 15-20-35 (.673) -5. After that, he played 16 games and went 3-5-8 (.500) -7. The Oilers after the Hall/Hemsky/Penner crash were basically drifting, I'm not certain that we can complain about the point total or the plus minus.
  12. Is Hall the better prospect? Yes.
  13. What's the gap? Don't know. We need to see more of both players. Hall is dynamic and more of a take charge player, he's going to force the issue most times. Eberle has fewer gears but uses his smarts to make plays and allows things to unfold before making his move. That beauty goal opening night featured plenty of patience and reading what was in front of him.
  14. What is Eberle good at? All kinds of things. He's really quick around the net, gets shots off in the blink of an eye. Some might call his goals flukey but they all count and he's usually making a play that is creative so credit where due. I'll say this about all of the gifted kids up front, but he strikes me as center material. Smart, savvy player who can pass the puck and think the game well.
  15. What is his future? I think he'd make an excellent center for Taylor Hall.
  16. Is he the most complete player of the three gifted rookies? Tom Renney appeared to think so, but then again Eberle was older than Hall and Paajarvi and Omark started in the minors (which remains a batshit crazy decision). Renney used Eberle at EV (14:27); PP (2:32) and PK (0:40) almost 18 minutes a night. Eberle played the 4th most minutes a night among all NHL rookies this season. We can't get ahead of ourselves, though. There's plenty of unwritten script.
  17. Maybe he'll play with RNH. You know, it's not a bad idea. A line of RNH, Smyth and Eberle might do some interesting things.
  18. What is his future? I believe he'll be captain one day.

23 comments:

  1. I'm good with making him Captain. When do we trade Horcoff ? ;o) ... i kid, really ... just kidding !

    ReplyDelete
  2. At first glimpse I thought those expectations were a little high, considering you think both Hemsky & Omark get more PP time.

    But then I noticed your prediction was basically identical to last years actual PPG, just with 82 GP instead of 69.

    I'll split the difference:

    75 GP 20-26-46 (0.613)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Eberle captain over Hall? Most everyone else says Hall. LT, please explain your thoughts on this one.

    ReplyDelete
  4. major: I already did. Eberle is a little older than the rest of the group and may emerge as a leader.

    Gordie Howe was captain for maybe 4 years, before him it was Red Kelly and then afterward it was Alex Delvecchio for a long, long time (and Howe was on the team).

    It's a guess, we don't know the inner workings and the Oiler ownership may just make Hall captain. But I think Eberle is a candidate for the leadership role, owing to his age, his performance on the international stage and his personality.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Eberle looks to be a gamebreaker like Hall even when you ignore the World Juniors.

    I remember that game against Calgary where the Flames got up by I think three goals and the Oilers look deflated.

    Eberle took the puck and the feet started pumping and I think it was a backhand by him to make it 3-1 going into the third. Seemed to really pick up the team.

    I think he'll pick up the team a lot over his career.

    ReplyDelete
  6. For me this was a player that really surprised. Really good player, doesn't cheat much either. I mean you expect Hall to be impressive even as a teenager, he was drafted first overall. But Eberle, a 20ish overall pick and just 19 years old ... a bit impressive. Omark was another guy who came out of the blue for those of us who aren't swayed by YouTube compilations, the guy is a surprisingly honest player. Having said all that, I was looking at the Oiler's results at

    If we pretend that the Oilers are going to try and win this year, then Jordan shouldn't be allowed near the PK. I don't know if anyone has summed up Dennis' PK scoring chance +/- numbers, but I bet his were brutal. But if it's another development year then I hope they give him lots of PK time. Hall too. It's a great situation to learn positioning at the NHL level imo.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Kids going to be a player for sure. I think he'll run right with Hall for most of his career.

    Just hope Renney can get off his ass a little and start treating him the same as Golden Boy.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Oops, to finish the uncompleted thought/sentence in my post above:

    Having said all that, I was looking at the Oiler's results at 5v5 when the score was tied here, and it's sobering.

    Special teams issues aside, this team was brutal when the score was tied at evens. By any measure, but I used Corsi, because it's the one with the overwhelmingly strongest predictive value (That Jim Corsi is a brilliant cat, I'm starting to think that he only told David Staples a fraction of what he actually knows).

    So if you are a type that believes territorial advantage is important, the Oilers are starting in a deep hole. I know they were massacred by injuries, and I know that all the arrows are pointing up when it comes to the young talent up front. Still, that's just awful, they have a very long ways to go to even become respectable.

    Take heart though, check the Leafs on the same site :) admittedly better than the Oilers, but not by much. Burke has transformed that team from 'mediocre with a run of bad luck' to 'genuinely bad'. This by betting on the on-ice percentages. Dude either needs better quants, or he needs to start listening to the ones he has. In any case, that's a genuinely dire situation in Hogtown.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Lowetide:

    As an aside, knowing you like quality of competition measures. Sort that list I linked to by OppCorF% ... that should be near as dammit, and mesh with your observation, no?

    Change the word 'corsi' in the url to 'goals' ... do the same.

    A 70-30 mix of the two should be about right. In fact if you could convince the author (his name is David Johnson) to produce the same numbers for close score situations (TIED IN THE THIRD OR WITHIN ONE GOAL IN THE FIRST OR SECOND) ... then you've got Babcock Qualcomp. Sorry for the caps, mishit a key.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Some of you don't know, but tonight I'm touching the sublime, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  11. hunter1909 said...

    Some of you don't know, but tonight I'm touching the sublime, lol.

    Mushrooms?

    ReplyDelete
  12. Tie games are correlated with low scoring, unless you count 6-5 at the end of the 2nd as a tie game (you could also book it under "I should have gone to Mexico that weekend").

    That said, it's interesting to look at game dynamics in the tie game situation. Last season we were on the short side on the shot differential to the tune of 10 large. In many games where we were tied after a period or two, I suspect our save percentage regressed to the norm more often than not.

    I've been doing curve fitting on environmental data lately involving a penalty term on total curvature (integral of the square of the 2nd derivative, aka "wiggle"). It keeps making me think about volatility at the rink: the games where the size of the lead constantly shrinks and expands vs games where one yawns monotonic until the fat lady sings, about two hours after it became a foregone conclusion--such as a dull tie you just know is destined to end badly.

    Volatility is related to my suspicion that the top teams sometimes fall into the sleepwalking trap of only turning it on to score the cinching goal. It's kind of like call and response: the Oilers tie it up, the Wings score the clincher, the Oiler tie it up, the Wings score another clincher. Clinchers galore. High total curvature, game never really in doubt, only the spurts of true motivation.

    I think sometimes the float factor in the upper echelon disguises just how bad a team is. The other statistic I'd like to work up is "plumbers against", the number of times some chump busts a 20 game personal drought playing on your front lawn.

    Is it just me, or does this team give up too many of those, especially to former Oilers? The ultimate indignity: the plumber hat-trick by a former team-mate who has never had a ten goal season and hasn't scored one since a sheaf of playmates.

    (Notice that Safeway never promised to give away a million dollars if a *former* Oiler scores five goals in a game at Rexall place, the cunning bastards.)

    RNH, Smyth and Eberle sounds interesting. I still suspect that as Smyth has lost a bit of step he never had in the first place, that Smyth+Hemmer is slightly less than the sum of the parts. It could be our best line nevertheless, but it might not be our wisest line card.

    ReplyDelete
  13. What is Eberle good at? All kinds of things.

    Darn tootin'

    I am with you on the captain thing too. I've read Brownlee's description of Hall as captain material, but I was not convinced he is the right guy. Eberle strikes me as what the Oil traditionally take in a captain too. Not necessarily the best player, but certainly a well-spoken, natural leader.

    ReplyDelete
  14. A couple things:

    Eberle's the better player right now. Not only does he perform, but I could count on one hand the night of truly off nights he had at home last year.

    Also, if he only gets that many points, both he and I will be disappointed. He's better than that. I understand this is RE, but Eberle's better than 52 points. He's always stepped up and will continue to do so.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Eberle is likely the smartest player the Oilers have on the roster.

    Nuff said.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Our beloved "Sugartits" are heading for Sweden next season. He has signed a contract with Modo for the upcoming season.

    SEL will be fun this season with so many former Oiler players.

    ReplyDelete
  17. ...and Omark started in the minors (which remains a batshit crazy decision).

    Really?

    “I’d like to take the whole season with me,” Omark said. “I started the season (in OKC) and my goal when I went over here was to play NHL but (Edmonton) sent me (to OKC). I’m actually really, really glad for that because I learned a lot (in OKC)."

    "I had great time (in OKC). It’s great teammates here and then, of course I went to play in the NHL."

    “If you compare me in the beginning of the season and the end of the season, I’m a whole new player I think.

    Next year, I’m going to be ready from the start."

    “Everybody is talking about defense,” Omark said. “I’m not the best player there but I tried to work it like everyday or every practice I can do it. Of course, I’m always going to be an offensive player. That’s where my best skills are. But I can be better on defense of course.

    ReplyDelete
  18. But Ducey, Omark was not even the third worst guy on the Oil last year at TC, and he still got sent down. It was not a hockey decision.

    Good on him for recognising the value of what happened to him, it shows maturity. Still a weird decision.

    ReplyDelete
  19. At the time, what was better for Omark's development may have been considered more important than what was better for the big club. Since the team wasn't going to be doing much in the standings with or without Omark.

    The assumption being that OKC was what was best for Omark's development.

    ReplyDelete
  20. I think the Oilers sent him out because they didn't have to worry about waivers.

    Jacques, Stortini, and about 5 other guys were on the roster and Omark can't beat out those guys?

    No sale.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Who pissed in your cornflakes?

    re: Ebs

    Considering how he, horcoff, and others spun the story around that first goal, I can understand the suggestion re: leadership. It's easy to see he has the potential.

    I'm not sure he ends up as the prototipical 1 RW though, and maybe not with Hall. Honestly, I'd rather see him playing complementary as 2RW, and have a chance to kill it. I'm not convinced he's got the durability to take on the top D of other teams consistently.

    If they do re-up hemsky, having him and Omark with Eberle all on starboard may be the deepest 1-2-3 RW in the league.

    ReplyDelete
  22. probably the smartest guy on the team right now.

    he wore down as the season went on so I'll be curious to see if he tried something different with his training this summer.

    ReplyDelete