Ales Hemsky is a ridiculous hockey player, speed and skill and touch and energy and style and enthusiasm. Elan.
Ales Hemsky's injury history suggests he will not have a long NHL career playing at the highest levels. He's like a sports car built for milder climates and smoother blacktop. Maybe he belongs on the Bonneville Salt Flats, but in our town he breaks down a lot.
Among the frustrations endured by Oiler fans since 2006 spring, the cruelty of not having 83 every game night is especially mean spirited of the hockey Gods.
A healthy Ales Hemsky is a hopeful thing.
NHL Prediction for 11-12: 57, 17-37-54 (.947)
- You have him playing 10 more games this season than a year ago. Yes, the early word on his health is positive. I'm guessing he'll play a little more this season.
- I see you've finally given in and stopped projecting more than 1/1. If he played with a pair of forwards with talent and in their prime I'd bet on it again. I've been strong on Hemsky for a decade, it's too late to stop now. I suspect everyone remembers 2005-06? That's the last time this man played on a team devoted to winning hockey games.
- So, who will he play with? In the RE after the season, I said: I'd hope that the Oilers would work hard on finding a legit replacement for Penner on that Gagner-Hemsky line. In-house options include MPS and Hartikainen but my hope is that they hold back the kids a little with a mid-level acquisition with NHL experience and an idea about how to play. MacArthur or Upshall, someone like that. Nothing earth shattering, just pushing back the depth chart so it might be Hall-MacArthur-MPS-Hartikainen-Reddox. They acquired three left wingers this summer. I think the Oilers might use several combinations. My sincere hope is that they pair him with Gagner and try Smyth or Taylor Hall on LW.
- What about Paajarvi? No. Gagner and MP don't have chem. That may change over time, but the Smyth acquisition gives them options.
- What about playing Hemsky with Horcoff or Belanger at center? I'm sure they'll all be tried, but if Gagner is your top offensive center then I think Hemsky should be playing with him.
- Then Horcoff and Belanger get the kids? Yeah. Hall-Eberle and Paajarvi-Omark go to Horcoff and Belanger.
- Think it'll happen? I think there's a chance, although the temptation will be there to have Horcoff and Smyth (plus Belanger) team up for a tough minutes road line.
- Gagner with Hemsky and Smyth could be a tough minutes line. Let's hold that thought until we get to Gagner.
- What about Ryan Jones? What about Ryan Jones?
- He could score a lot of goals with Hemsky. The idea isn't to optimize Ryan Jones, it's to optimize Ales Hemsky.
- Any wild cards? Well, Hemsky did well with Dustin Penner, so I'd like to see Hartikainen get a chance on a line with 83 during TC.
- Right. Hartikainen is all the rage but Jones is dirt. No, but Hartikainen might be a guy who can play top 9 minutes and chemistry is a funny thing. Maybe they mesh. Also, you want to know where the big Finn can play when injuries hit.
- Anything else? Sure. If the Oilers got NHL average goaltending and Ales Hemsky was healthy all season I think there's a chance they could see a playoff position at the deadline.
- Neither of those things will happen. I'm not going to bet against Hemsky. There's a better chance he'll stay healthy than NK supplying average goaltending.
- Will they trade him? Yes. He'll go at the deadline unless signed.
- Why? The heart of the cluster is many years younger. It's the same reason Ryan Smyth won't hang around unless he's willing to take a discount. Hall is the heart of this club, not Smyth and not Hemsky.
- Would you trade him? No. I'd keep Hemsky as the "Daniel Alfredsson" of the group. But the Oilers have never really thought that way. The Oiler way dating back to Gretzky was trading them off before they cost too much. Even with his injury history I'd sign Hemsky long term and send Kevin Prendergast a thankyou card. Helluva draft pick, an absolute killer.
- But it ends with Taylor Hall. We'll see. I think they Oilers will need to be a contender soon or a kid like Hall is going to get frustrated. And if they keep drafting number one overalls, then the expensive one is the player who will go.
- Thanks, Captain Rain Cloud. I'm just saying every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Trade Dustin Penner, get younger. Trade Ales Hemsky, get younger. Sooner or later you have to stand and deliver or someday Taylor Hall will be too far from the center of the cluster.
- Hemsky hung in there and was a good soldier. Remember that when they trade him.
What about Ryan Jones? What about Ryan Jones?
ReplyDeleteThis made me laugh out loud. Brilliant. Especially after all these call and response articles you've been doing.
I like your Alfredsson reference LT, that's a pretty legit comp in some ways. Alfie has had his injury woes too along the way. Hasn't hit 80 GP since is rookie season back in the Neolithic Era. Still, he's helped Ottawa quite a lot well into his 30s.
What? I tought Jones was our top sniper!
ReplyDeleteHe HAS to be with Hemsky! Silly stuff.
LT, your thought to put Hemsky and Smyth on the flanks w/Gagner at center is what I've been thinking for some time now.
ReplyDeleteYou can't put Gagner w/MPS & Omark - it does not work. So if RNH starts the year in the show, seems you can put him between Hall & Eberle and let Horcoff start w/Omark & MPS. If RNH goes back to junior's after a 9 game start, you could move Horcoff back up with Hall & Eberle and slide Belanger between MPS & Omark.
No bad choices there.
Alfie has had his injury woes too along the way. Hasn't hit 80 GP since is rookie season back in the Neolithic Era
ReplyDeleteEven though he's 10 years older, Alfredsson has averaged 10 GP more per season than Hemsky (71-61).
If he gets hurt for a 3rd consecutive season, I'm worried Forsberg might be a more accurate health comp.
What I don't like about the media is they're over use of propaganda. Last year, at this time, this is what was said about Ales Hemsky:
ReplyDeleteAles Hemsky - Hemsky is down 10 pounds and swears he is stronger then ever, including his surgically repaired shoulder.
---
Well, wasn't that a crock. So we are lead to believe the same is true this year as well...until a few weeks in and the guy falls apart once gain.
@Raine Snow,
ReplyDeleteIf you recall when Hemsky went down this past season, the true story came out. He has had problems with both shoulders and they did surgery on one. This summer, it was surgery on the other shoulder.
So, in theory he's the new "bionic shoulder guy". If that's true and all is repaired, this might be the first time he's 100% healthy in a few seasons.
Hemsky as a talented player, yes… as a great Oiler…no. It’s not the injuries, it’s the work ethic and complacency, during games and in practice. Notice how no one ever talks about Hall, Eberle, or MPS absorbing Hemsky’s copper and blue blood. Ryan Smyth he is not.
ReplyDeleteHe is a talented player who will now be happy in his comfort zone providing second line scoring and not much else.
What about Ryan Jones? What about Ryan Jones?
ReplyDeleteIt's funny, but I can't even count how many casual fans of the Oilers who tell me they love Ryan Jones. The comment is always followed by liking his "hustle" or that he's exciting to watch.
Hemsky as a talented player, yes… as a great Oiler…no. It’s not the injuries, it’s the work ethic and complacency, during games and in practice.
ReplyDeleteI love how people speculate about Hemsky being complacent, but there's never been any hard evidence of it. The fact the guy has gone into the corners against big nasty bastards like Regehr suggests the opposite of complacency.
He is a talented player who will now be happy in his comfort zone providing second line scoring and not much else.
Sounds like the whole "Hemsky is a second line winger" stuff that was getting floated from out east around deadline time. Which is, to put it in one word, ridiculous. The guy is a first-line left wing by any definition or measure when he's in the lineup. And, as such, he should be kept - not at any cost, but they shouldn't try and nickel-and-dime the guy either. Trading Hemsky (for magic beans, because lord knows they'd deal him for multiple "assets" and not actual NHL talent) just pushes out the date this team can contend another 1-2 seasons.
Get good players, KEEP good players. Otherwise, this franchise will spin its tires and Taylor Hall is gone elsewhere at his first opportunity to do so.
The guy is a first-line left wing by any definition or measure when he's in the lineup.
ReplyDeleteExcept when he's playing right wing?
Jay: dammit, this is what happens when I wake up at 5am on a Sunday morning.
ReplyDeleteRight wing, yes. Everything else in my post, I'll stand by.
This made me laugh out loud. Brilliant.
ReplyDeleteSame here.
I think the Oilers try to extend Hemsky this year. I suspect they're waiting to confirm he is healthy - would not surprise me if we see an extension by December/January.
We have to remember - Ales Hemsky likes Edmonton, his girlfriend is from here, and with the kids ready to take more leadership roles, he will no longer have to be the go-to-guy. Smyth coming back, combined with signing Belanger, and there is evidence the ship is turning in the right direction.
The Oilers were asking for a ransom at the trade deadline. I truly believe if the Oilers wanted Hemsky traded, he'd be gone at the same time as Penner.
I completely agree with signing him long term at reasonable dollars.
ReplyDeleteNo matter what, you're going to need some luck to win a Cup. So what you're hoping for is a good run from Hemsky at the right time. The guy could be the difference between a long run into the playoffs and a Stanley Cup.
The 13th overall pick that we get for him at the deadline doesn`t have the same odds of putting us over the top.
Hemsky is an elite first liner. Yes I'd prefer if he played more games but damn he is awesome when he does. Remember 2005-06 indeed, he was a monster. Trading Hemsky does not improve this team, it only adds years to when they are a contender. Keep Hemsky!!
ReplyDelete“I love how people speculate about Hemsky being complacent, but there's never been any hard evidence of it.”
ReplyDelete---Associate coach Tom Renney barked out Ales Hemsky in practice yesterday for not showing enough focus in the drills. It was a full-throated scolding, much of it not suitable for print. Hemsky's practice habits, he is always the first player off the ice, seconds after the whistle goes ---
“The fact the guy has gone into the corners against big nasty bastards like Regehr suggests the opposite of complacency.”
I didn’t question his timidity, only his focus during games which, like in practice, often (for want of a better word) blows.
“Sounds like the whole "Hemsky is a second line winger" stuff that was getting floated from out east around deadline time.”
Again I was not suggesting he was a second line talent, just that he would be complacently happy on the second line, which, given his offensive abilities, would be a benefit to the Oilers. I’m sure he would love to finish his career here.
Edmonton Oilers
ReplyDeleteNHL_Oilers Edmonton Oilers
Stay tuned to 630 CHED Monday morning for an #Oilers announcement.
22 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply
So apparently I found out Sam Gagner's girlfriend is a U of A medicine student. Class of 2013.
ReplyDeleteEncouraging news. We need more Vicki Moss's in the city, not less.
Could be wrong about this but I suspect this will be the official Oilers Lunch now on 630 Ched announcement.
ReplyDeleteJust reading a Gretzky article. You can pretty much hint why both Gretzky and Messier were sold, not traded.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.prohockeyfights.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1517&sid=af8d732f571c7d447e78532505af3305
As recently as 1981, Pocklington's assets (including Edmonton's Triple-A baseball team, the Trappers) were estimated to be worth $1.4 billion, but the recession got to him, and his holdings have now reportedly shrunk to a mere $150 million to $200 million. Gone, gone, are the $9 million worth of art, the private Lear jet and the Rolls-Royce. These days he has to make do with a Mercedes-Benz.
Blogger PunjabiOil said...
ReplyDeleteSo apparently I found out Sam Gagner's girlfriend is a U of A medicine student. Class of 2013.
Encouraging news. We need more Vicki Moss's in the city, not less.
So, how did the Gretzky/Moss story turn out in the end?
The Oilers won 5 Stanleys.
ReplyDeleteWitnessing just 1 is on my bucket-list - and I'm not even 30.
ReplyDeleteAnd Joey Moss got an awesome job. Happy ending every which way you look.
ReplyDeletePJO: I was 28 when the Oil got their first one. You're right about that being a "bucket list" type of thing. A day I shall never forget.
ReplyDeleteIf they keep this core together, there is a reasonable chance we'll see one before Hall's UFA years commence.
ReplyDeleteVery encouraging remark made this past week by Hall in which he stated he wants to be in Edmonton for a long time.
Blogger Lowetide said...
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers won 5 Stanleys.
So let me get this straight,
The Oilers will win 5 cups because Gagner has an Edmonton girlfriend?
Does the math really support this? :)
DSF: Well, someone saw someone good. Let's go with that. :-)
ReplyDeleteHemsky is an elite first-liner in the same way Craig Janney was an elite first liner.
ReplyDeleteIn other words, no he's not.
Bra and Panties now tweeting that Garfield says Oil are preparing to offer Gagner and Smid for 2012 UFA Ryan Suter...
ReplyDelete...Might be time to un-follow.
CommonFan14: It would fit with the policy of aquiring as many Ryans as possible.
ReplyDeleteToo bad they never traded Hemsky. Instead, forcing him to waste his career on this lousy team.
ReplyDeleteIf he walks as a UFA, I'll wish him every success.
Hemsky/Smyth/Horcoff are EXACTLY the type of players this team needs.
ReplyDeleteTambellini's a genius for not trading away anything substantial, and might end up keeping Hemsky around.
I don't recall Hemsky being anything but a first rate player. With Omark and Eberle, Oilers have a ridiculous right wing scoring depth predicament.
Do the right thing Tambo, and evaluate!
Hemsky is an elite first-liner in the same way Craig Janney was an elite first liner.
ReplyDeleteIn other words, no he's not.
Maybe not elite (read: top-five at his position) first liner, but he's a first liner still.
Right now, today, he's probably still the best player on the Edmonton Oilers. Hall is closing fast, but that doesn't mean they should be looking to trade #83. No way, no how.
I think that the Oilers will try to keep Hemsky, but they won't if he doesn't extend. Its a good move to trade a guy as opposed to losing him after an additional 1/4 of a season.
ReplyDeleteBut they traded Penner?
Yes, but Penner is a very different player than Hemsky.
Bra and Panties now tweeting that Garfield says Oil are preparing to offer Gagner and Smid for 2012 UFA Ryan Suter...
ReplyDelete...Might be time to un-follow.
Of the 20 Dmen who faced the tough Comp in Toughest situations. there were 4 Defensive pairs. Whitney-Suter would become numbetr 5.
5 pairs are with (GA) and [+/-] rank in brackets.
Whitney(9)[1]-Suter(1)[3]
Garrison(3)[17]-Weaver(6)[18]
Murray(7)[12]-Boyle(17)[7]
Scuderi(8)[10]-Doughty(13)[4]
Staal(11)[14]-Girardi(19)[15]
i would be ok with what would likely be the best tough comp D pair in the Game.
For a blog & community that prides itself so much on unbiased analysis based on quantifiable performance metrics, I'm surprised at how much latitude Ales Hemsky is given based on 'saw him good in 2006'
ReplyDeleteThis fanboy nostalgia is the only reason I can think of for labeling this player an elite first liner. If for no other reason that his declining durability, I think that's a highly questionable appraisal.
It will be the height of irony if Ryan Jones actually outscores Hemsky this season. That is a scenario that can't be ruled out based on Hemsky's recent injury history.
This fanboy nostalgia is the only reason I can think of for labeling this player an elite first liner.
ReplyDeleteWell, that and the part where his points/game is something like top five for all right wings since the lockout.
Ales Hemsky is a good player.
ReplyDeleteThe Edmonton Oilers, a team in the NHL, need more good players, not less.
Bikini Girl sure tells us the things we'd like to hear...
ReplyDeleteOilers are talking to Nashville about Suter, they are prepared to offer Gagner and Smid as per Garfield
Oilers are looking at a European goaltender and may invite him to camp.
Ryan @jonesry28 is being shopped by the Oilers.
Staois had contacted the Oilers but there is no interest from the Oilers
I kind of hope all of those are true.
Please don't trade Hemsky.
What about Ryan Jones? - What about Ryan Jones?
ReplyDeleteHow would Jones compare to a guy like Matt Moulson if you gave him primo linemates?
Staois had contacted the Oilers but there is no interest from the Oilers
ReplyDeleteThey should try and get him into the organization as a "defenseman consultant" to travel around and work with guys on the farm/ junior/ SEL etc. He could do some scouting too. A role similar to what Chabot does with the goalies.
He is very well spoken, and few got more out of their ability.
Lee - If you are going to troll, it helps to appear somewhat realistic in the logic you are presenting. The problem with your approach is that most of the readers will look at it and simply say "nobody could be as stupid as this guy pretends to be"
ReplyDeleteYou might catch the odd person, but most will ignore you.
You might catch the odd person, but most will ignore you.
ReplyDeleteBookie you speak anger instead of fact.
Sadly Lees suggestion has high probability! Based on Past.
As a fan, I "hope" Hemsky stays healthy. He is a top 5 RW and a 25G 50A player when at his best.
As for jones, We need Goal scoring but not for the sake of GA.
Well, that and the part where his points/game is something like top five for all right wings since the lockout.
ReplyDeleteLink?
rickibear,
ReplyDeleteSo if you look at Hemsky points per game last season (.894) and Jones (.309) which was a career year for Jones.
Using Hemsky's pace, that means if he plays 30 games, he would exceed the 25 pts that Jones had last season.
Now, realistically I cannot see Jones getting as much ice time this season (IMHO), based on the current roster. Will he play 3rd or 4th line minutes ? Will he get more PK minutes, less at EVs ?
I would say the smart money is to bet even an injury shortened season by hemsky would best the 25 or 30 pts Jones might get.
Hemsky averaged 61 games per season. Although the trend over the last two seasons is a bad one, I think Hemsky will easily surpass Jones in points.
Now if Jones gets 30+ points there will be a lot of surprised fans.
Just my thoughts.
The problem with your approach is that most of the readers will look at it and simply say "nobody could be as stupid as this guy pretends to be"
ReplyDeleteOh, I think there could be a few people posting on the site that are as stupid as I pretend to be. lol
Lee,
ReplyDelete7th in 2010/2011
5th in 2009/2010
9th in 2008/2009
8th in 2007/2008
18th in 2006/2007
12th in 2005/2006
Obviously I'm throwing out the guys with just 1 or 2 games played.
If you add up and average all the top RW since the lock out he comes out top 5.
Hemsky's stats as per NHL.com: (ppg = points per game; rank is among right wingers as labelled by NHL.com adjusted for minimum 20 games played)
ReplyDelete05/06: 0.95 ppg (tied for 12th)
06/07: 0.83 ppg (tied for 16th)
07/08: 0.96 ppg (8th)
08/09: 0.92 ppg (tied for 7th)
*09/10: 1.00 ppg (5th)
10/11: 0.89 ppg (7th)
*Only 22 games played 09/10 season
Summary of findings: Say what you will about Hemsky, but since the lockout, whenever he's healthy, he's put up points and has done so remarkably consistently year to year. Although his points-per-game hasn't changed, his ranking among right wingers has... to the point where, when healthy, his offensive production is ABOVE average for a first-line right winger (assuming average being ranked 11 - 20).
Conclusion: When healthy, Hemsky is a top-10 right winger when it comes to offensive production.
Damn it Woodguy!
ReplyDeleteI ask Schitzo a question and WG replies. Cool. For my next trick, I'll get bookie to post without moving my lips!
ReplyDeleteIn all seriousness, thanks for the links. Let's hope Alice plays the full 82 this year cos clearly he's Corey Perry when he does.
Lee,
ReplyDeleteHere is the top RW (as described by Behind the Net) in 5v5 pts/60 since the lockout
1st in 2010/2011
2nd in 2009/2010
32nd in 2008/2009
12th in 2007/2008
That's as far back as BTN goes.
Remember he's done with less the stellar offensive team mates as well.
Please don't trade Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteAnd don't trade Omark, Hall, Eberle, MPS, Smyth, Hartikanen, Hamilton, Pitlick, etc.
The reality is that in the next year or so, someone on the wings likely has to go.
Smyth has the mullet magic and his salary is about to go down substantially.
Omark likely has about 50 games this year to show he has it - or he will be the one traded.
Hall, Eberle and MPS are untouchable.
Hamilton and Hartikanen have the size and all round games this team so desperately needs.
Presumably the fourth line will need an Eager or someone like that.
Hemsky has shown he is a brittle, almost pp/g player, thats somewhat disinterested in practice, and he is about to be a FA or will be expensive to re-sign ($5+ million).
If by the trade deadline Omark has shown himself to be a consistent and durable NHL scorer, Hemsky is gone.
Why? Well, signing Hemsky to a longterm contract at $5+ million is going to make it hard to keep other people, is going to come at the cost of someone else in a top 6or 9 role (goodbye Linus), and may wind up being an anchor if he has trouble staying healthy.
Having said all of that, I would be happy if they signed Hemmer to a two year deal.
That would likely be unappealing to Ales though.
WG, I've never said he's not productive. I take issue with categorizing him as an elite player when he's out of the lineup as much as he's in it.
ReplyDeleteIt's like having an incredibly talented business savant in your office, but he's incommunicado half the time. Where's the value?
Part of being an elite talent IMHO, is being a durable cornerstone the team can count on to be in the lineup. In simple terms, when Lindros or Lafontaine were healthy, they were great talents. But once the injuries become a regular pattern, it's time to dump the stock.
Practice? We talking about practice?
ReplyDeleteWG, I've never said he's not productive. I take issue with categorizing him as an elite player when he's out of the lineup as much as he's in it.
ReplyDeleteYou said:
For a blog & community that prides itself so much on unbiased analysis based on quantifiable performance metrics, I'm surprised at how much latitude Ales Hemsky is given based on 'saw him good in 2006'
Yes, that's what I said WG. What's your point? The 2 sentences are not mutually exclusive. This community gives this injury prone player a ton of latitude. It's not 2006 anymore and Hemsky may very well have chronic shoulder problems now. His value should be viewed in that light and not with the Cup run rose coloured glasses firmly in place.
ReplyDeleteTroll or no, Lee's sentiment on Hemsky is not his alone.
ReplyDeleteI love Hemsky, love his determination and love the thought that he could hold his numbers through 75+ GP this season.
It is not, however, unreasonable to think that a difficult choice may need to be made on him and soon.
LT (and others) are concerned that a trade may be in the works for another bag of picks and unproven prospects. Fair concern, and I agree that at some point this team is going to have to make a stand and dance with the ones we have but there is another option - trade Hemsky for comprable skill and ability but at another position, lets call it D.
Right now, coming off the injury plagued season he had (and the one before that, and the one before that) his trade value is at a low ebb but should the new patch job on both shoulders hold until the trade deadline then he will be holding fine numbers and solid value. Would a team like Nashville, perenially in need of offense up front, be prepared to deal from the D to get it? They might. Not sure that Bikini girl's speculation about Suter is as crazy as some here are saying - just that we may need to exchange Hemsky for Gagner to make the deal happen.
Reg:
ReplyDeleteThe fan in me says 25G 50A
the Reliabilty centered Maint guy in me says. two options.
1.He is healed from surgery and is 100% for the year.
2. history of injuries continue.
Specifics of language are allways brought up here. but language is about implied intent.
You go after the specifics of points, from your perspective. including Wood guy.
unbiased analysis based on quantifiable performance metrics
Each person has there own interpretation of this.
Last year: in a Cap world.
Hemsky 4.1M
47GM 14G 28A 42P
Ev 2.88P/60
[.702p/60]/M
10.24P/M
Jones .975M
82Gm 18G 7A 25P
1.38P/60
[1.42p/60]/M
25.6P/M
Last year Ryan Jones produced 2.5X more points per cap dollar than Hemsky.
If hemsky had played the full season Jones would have been 43% bettr than hemsky p/dollar.
Now jones got a 53% raise so if Hemsky plays a full season and the numbers are simmiliar there is still a chance Jones out produces hemsky in a quantifable metric.
If hemsky is injured and jones is healthy he will crush hemsky like last year.
This is a cap system. Result must be measured by the dollar as well.
From TSN:
ReplyDeleteIt didn't take long for newly-signed Dan Carcillo to stoke the fire of the Chicago Blackhawks rivalry with the Vancouver Canucks.
Asked what he thought of the Canucks at his introductory press conference, Carcillo did what he does best.
"I watched that series and I'm actually pretty excited to play them because there's a few guys there that I think played a little bit outside of their shoes," Carcillo said. "I think I can keep most of those guys in check when we play them this year so I'm pretty excited to play them."
When asked to name specifically which players he had a problem with, the 26-year-old winger didn't hold back.
"Lapierre, Glass, and Torres. Just because. Lapierre's at the top of the list."
Trading Hemsky is about the stupidest thing I can imagine happening.
ReplyDeleteKeep your team's good players, duh.
Trading Hemsky is about the stupidest thing I can imagine happening.
ReplyDeleteKeep your team's good players, duh.
Or trade them for equally good players that can stay healthy. Ta duh
I just took a quick scan of Hemsky's injury history since the lock-out. Fun tidbits:
ReplyDeleteNovember 28, 2006: #83's 1st shoulder injury - a hit from Anaheim's Sean O'Donnell. He came back after 8 games but would reinjure it multiple times, missing a total of 18 games on the season. #shouldhavewaited
2007/2008: #83's last "complete" season. No shoulder injuries but he missed a total of 8 games over the season from (presumably) the same knee injury.
December 30, 2008: #83's first concussion, originally labelled a "nose" injury. Maybe he broke it too? I can't find confirmation as to what play this happened on. He would miss 10 games for this.
2009/2010: 1 game for the flu, 59 for the shoulder.
2010/2011: 18 games from the (other) shoulder, 17 split between groin and concussion.
---
A "healthy" Hemsky, at this stage of his career, is one that plays 70 games. Even if his shoulders are repaired beyond reinjury, the rest of his body will keep him off the roster from time to time.
As for the hockey player, he's a very good RW and young enough to keep if his shoulders are healed. I vote to extend*. He's young enough to bury in LTIR if he completely breaks down, yes?
*Of course it all comes down to the terms but he's a good player, keep him. To me it's that simple.
@ Lee:
ReplyDeleteYeah, players just as good as Hemsky are available from most NHL teams all the time, right?
Trading Hemsky is about the stupidest thing I can imagine happening.
ReplyDeleteKeep your team's good players, duh.
Or trade them for equally good players that can stay healthy. Ta duh
Lee - Hemsky's been injuried. If you've figured it out, don't you think the rest of the GM's have figured it out and are not going to make you a trade for anything of equal or greater value? Columbus didn't in the draft and they are supposedly desperate to win now or else.
If Hemsky can stay healthy - and that's what we hope, he's shown himself to be a nearly a point a game player for several years. You give him a chance to build something with the younger kids. You don't trade him for even bigger question marks.
I hope he can be signed to a reasonable contract - but agents and certain GM's have been known to get in the way here, ahem.
Yeah, players just as good as Hemsky are available from most NHL teams all the time, right?
ReplyDeleteIn case you weren't paying attention, Mike Richards and Jeff Carter were traded this past offseason.
I'm not advocating trading Hemsky at this time. His value's too low based on his recent injury history. I think you keep him healthy, pump his numbers with soft minutes and dump him at the trade deadline.
I like the Hemsky for Suter suggestion. That would be a step in the right direction IMO.
Both Richards and Carter were traded for younger players, prospects, picks, certainly not "equal players".
ReplyDeleteBoth Richards and Carter were traded for younger players, prospects, picks, certainly not "equal players".
ReplyDeleteThe point is they were available. There are very few true untouchables in this league. The Oilers are fortunate to have a handful of them, but that expands the definition of untouchables to include players nobody wants. lol
For a blog & community that prides itself so much on unbiased analysis based on quantifiable performance metrics, I'm surprised at how much latitude Ales Hemsky is given based on 'saw him good in 2006'
ReplyDeleteWhat part of LT's post is not 'unbiased analysis based on quantifiable performance metrics'? He predicts a point per game pace that reflects recent history and acknowledges the player's inability to stay healthy (57 GP, health is a "hopeful thing" for 83).
How exactly is that a "saw him good in 2006" analysis?
Lee, it's good to have a contrarian around, sometimes they bring a fresh approach to the debate. However, when it comes to discussing both 83 and 77, you act like a fool. You assert that it is our responsibility to disprove your 'saw him bad' analysis, while not providing any substantial evidence to support your conclusions. When shown data that refutes your argument, you childishly redirect the discussion, rather than concede the point:
Schitzo: "Well, that and the part where his points/game is something like top five for all right wings since the lockout."
Lee: "Link?"
WG: Provides evidence.
Lee: "I ask Schitzo a question and WG replies. Cool. For my next trick, I'll get bookie to post without moving my lips!"
Yes Lee, WG did reply to your question, however that is not what we are discussing.
"In all seriousness, thanks for the links. Let's hope Alice plays the full 82 this year cos clearly he's Corey Perry when he does."
Yes Lee, Hemsky is clearly not as good as Corey Perry, however, that is not what we are discussing.
Once you accused me of being a naive university student. A tough label no doubt, but certainly capable of more than the grade school stuff you have put on display in this thread.
Sorry, that last comment was me - forgot to switch accounts.
ReplyDeleteLast year Ryan Jones produced 2.5X more points per cap dollar than Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteGuys making $600K per year very, very often score more points per dollar than guys making $5-6M. That doesn't make it a good idea to fill your team with the former. It's called "diminishing returns".
Get your facts straight kinger.
ReplyDelete1) I said blog AND community. My post wasn't a comment on LT's post alone and in fact is moreso directed at the many Hemsky fanboys on the site who think a high ppg magically makes up for a player being out of the lineup half the time.
2) I provided points in response. I've said his durability or lack thereof should be what removes him from the conversation in regards to being an elite player, which is where the Perry comp is germane btw. I've also said I'm not an advocate of trading him until his value can be improved.
You just choose to ignore these points because they're not convenient to your argument. Hats off to rickibear however, who's cap assessment of Hemsky v Jones made the argument for this pov in a far more trenchant manner than I could.
3) As for you being a naive university student and me being childish and a fool, based on your cutting retort, I do feel compelled to rescind my earlier remark. If anything, you're more 'elementary' in your outlook.
There, are we all good? I hope so cos I couldn't deal with the prospect of some stranger on a message board not liking me.
Jones got twice as many points per dollar as Sidney Crosby did in 2009-2010, his most recent healthy season. Sure glad we're not saddled with that albatross of a contract.
ReplyDeleteJones also had 25 more points than both Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux last season.
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ReplyDelete...Combined.
ReplyDeleteI love 83 and have seen most of his games since he debuted but there's a real question of how much you sign him for knowing his injury history.
ReplyDeleteHow many guys at his age with that long of an IR rapsheet have gone on to be 60 games durable a season?
Don't get me wrong, I love watching him play and I wouldn't deal him for peanuts but you'd hope he'd give us a little bit of a deal if we're resigning him.