Saturday, July 30, 2011

The Kingdom of Sweden
















Lost in the shuffle of recent drafts is a trend toward drafting Swedish kids. The Oilers have (rightly) gained the reputation for spending a lot of picks on WHL kids (and kids heading for the western league) but their fascination with Sweden (and Finland) is marbled into the CHL picks. Historically, Sweden has not been a hot spot for the Edmonton Oilers. Here is a list of players drafted out of Sweden by the Oilers since 1979:
  1. Lars-Gunnar Pettersson, 9th rd in 1980
  2. Peter Eriksson, 4th rd in 1987
  3. Jonas Elofsson, 4th rd in 1997
  4. Tomas Groschl, 9th rd in 1999
  5. Mikael Svensk, 6th rd in 2001
  6. Fredrik Johansson, 9th rd in 2002
  7. Mikhail Youkov, 3rd rd in 2003
  8. Kalle Olsson, 5th rd in 2003
  9. Dragan Umicevic, 6th rd in 2003
  10. Bjorn Bjurling, 9th rd in 2004
  11. Fredrik Pettersson, 5th rd in 2005
  12. Linus Omark, 4th rd in 2007
  13. William Quist, 6th rd in 2007
  14. Johan Motin, 4th rd in 2008
  15. Magnus Paajarvi, 1st rd in 2009
  16. Anton Lander, 2nd rd in 2009
  17. Oscar Klefbom, 1st rd in 2011
17 players over 33 entry drafts, or about 1 every two seasons. Sweden has flipped with Finland over the last few years--Oilers used to take the Finns early and the Swedes late but not it has turned around in favor of the Swedes.

It looks to me as though Barry Fraser's love of Finland skewed the Oilers drafts through his regime. In his 22 drafts, there were 4 draft picks who played in Sweden their draft year. In the 11 years since, Sweden has been fertile soil for Edmonton--13 picks or about one per season. Fraser drafted 11 Finns during his time as scouting director and had tremendous success in this area.

Stu MacGregor is using his precious early picks on Swedes. Since taking over in 2008, two first round picks, one 2nd rder and a fourth round selection have been used on Swedish prospects. For the record, this is where Stu shops at the entry draft:
  1. WHL: 10 (most recent: RNH, Musil, Ewanyk)
  2. Sweden: 4 (most recent: Klefbom)
  3. Finland: 4 (most recent: Perhonen and Tuohimaa)
  4. QMJHL: 3 (most recent Jeremie Blain)
  5. OHL: 3 (most recent: Tobias Rieder)
  6. BCJHL: 2 (most recent: Kellen Jones)
  7. NCAA: 2 (most recent: Dillon Simpson)
  8. Slovakia: 2 (most recent: Martin Gernat)
  9. Belarus: 1 (most recent: Kristians Pelss)
  10. USHS: 1 (most recent: Troy Hesketh)
WHL represents 31% and the entire CHL accounts for 50% of the selections. Sweden and Finland are CHL east and 25% of the selections come from those two countries. Three quarters of the MBS era picks come from the CHL and Swe/Fin. Add the two BCJHL selections into the group and there's a pattern forming after 4 seasons of this drafting team.

Reading the tea leaves, there's a good chance that the WHL, OHL, QMJHL, Sweden, Finland and tier 2 junior (BCJHL, AJHL, USHL, etc) will be heavily scouted in the coming year. It's also safe to say that Norway will receive more attention than Russia.
--

Another busy edition of Nation Radio today at noon. Scheduled to appear:
  • Guy Flaming from The Pipeline Show and Coming Down the Pipe! I'll talk to Guy about the Team Canada WJ team's prospects camp in Edmonton this coming week and he'll try to educate me about the NCAA/CHL border war.
  • James Mirtle, Globe and Mail writer and one of the best hockey writers on the planet. I'll ask him about the Lombardi-Tambellini Milagro Beanfield War, Nikolai Khabibulin's situation and the Islanders arena situation.
  • Mark Spector from Rogers Sportsnet. One of Edmonton's most credible media people gets a one hour daily show and I'll ask him what Oiler fans can expect when the show hits the air.
  • Jim Byers from the OKC Barons. We'll talk about the Oilers activity this summer and how it might impact the Barons. There's a chance players like Teemu Hartikainen and Jeff Petry return to OKC and I'll ask him about which of last season's prospects he considers most NHL ready.
  • Dustin Nielson from Team 1260's Nielson and Chase morning show. A draft geek like myself and a guy who loves sports, he's got yet another gig starting in the fall and I'll ask him about it.
As always, email questions and comments are welcome at nationradio@theteam1260.com and I imagine there will be a few questions about NK, the Smyth-Fraser deal and Team 1260's brand new shows. Bring it on, we'll answer everything we can and make sure your comments hit the air.

21 comments:

  1. It's also safe to say that Norway will receive more attention than Russia.

    In spite of the lack of Russians in the past, what are the odds of EDM picking one with their first rounder next season? 20%, more? Based on the projected/uncertain presence of Grigorenko and Yakupov, along with Galchenyuk (if you consider him a Russian) in the top 8/10 with EDM looking likely to be in that top 8/10

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  3. LOL at wanting to have Pouliot on this team now.

    Swedes better than Finns, Kurri and a precious few aside.

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  4. Stu's drafting of Swedes reflects a wave of high end players coming from that country rather than any particular desire to obtain players from there.

    Finland has not been producing the same quality in the last 4 or 5 years.

    On the other hand, it would seem the focus on the WHL has been intentional. You get players with more grit than many other leagues, they are mostly western boys that don't see Edmonton as Siberia and may stick around past the RFA stage, and are used to brutal schedules and travel.

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  5. Billy Quist, ahh where is he now? I like the Swedish "invasion". Not too many though, a nice mix of Swedes, Canadians, Fins. No Russians (no offensse to the motherland), the odd american is fine for me.

    Oh by the way, final concert the U2 360 tour tonight here in the East. If anyone wants the "Claw" stage structure, it's going to auction, only need alot of cash and a few dozen 18 wheelers, and a huge back yard and it's yours ;).

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  6. speeds: I bet a 2-4 they don't take a Russian. Seriously. My guess is they would trade down.

    Ducey: Very good point.

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  7. Wouldn't those Russians still be CHL picks?

    LT, it's not hard to believe that 75% of the picks come from what must be at least 75% of the player producing sources. The only significant areas that seem to be ignored at the draft table are USHL and Russia.

    Other than the Mother Russia bias, and the W over the rest of the C, I don't think that tells us a whole helluva lot.

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  8. LT: But Yakupov, Galchenyuk and Grigorenko would also be CHL picks

    2 Of them play for Sarnia, another one for Quebec City.

    Sarnia ain't exactly a metropole.

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  9. I think the grit factor isn't nearly as big regarding the WHL.

    It is a league that eschews offense in favour of two-responsibility. It is also a league where there is a very good chance the kid grew up watching the Oilers. It may even be their favourite team.

    Putting the Oiler silks on may mean more for those kids then from other parts of the world and rightfully so.

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  10. FPB: I don't know. It seems to me the Oilers would have to be convinced the player was absolutely certain to stay in NA. They passed on Cherepanov and have passed on others since, plus the KHL is a bigger threat than it was in past years.

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  11. I think the grit factor isn't nearly as big regarding the WHL.

    It is a league that eschews offense in favour of two-responsibility


    In the CHL you need to learn how to deal with fighting, intimidation, the after the whistle face wash etc. You are not going to see that in the NCAA, USHL, or anywhere in Europe.

    Look at Dmen from around the world.

    There tends to be a difference in the typical NCAA defenceman (Petry, Gilbert, Lee, Liles, Poti, etc) compared to your average WHL Dman who tends to play with an edge.

    I think Tyler Pitlick had a big adjustment to the WHL due to the toughness.

    If I am scouting director under orders to find bigger, grittier players, the WHL (and the OHL) is the place I look first.

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  12. CHL of course, Canadians are the best hockey players after all.

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  13. Just a couple quick points:

    -the USHL isn't really a Tier II league anymore, the NAHL has assumed that mantle.

    -there is quite a lot of fighting/after the whistle action in the league as well. It's not anywhere near to being like NCAA hockey

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  14. I'm with KK, the grit factor in the USHL has gone up a few grades of sandpaper.

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  15. If Yakupov or Grigorenko go supernova next season, put up something staggering, like say 70 goals 150 points, and the Oilers win the lottery and pick 1st, think they'll still pass on a Ruskie?

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  16. Add Yakupov to Eberle, Hall, MPS, and RNH, and I do believe you win the cup at least twice, no matter how totally shit the rest of the team is.

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  17. Completely off topic, but took my 4 year old fishing for the first time this week. The fishing gods were good, and he actually caught a small rainbow all by himself. Fingers crossed, I have a fishing buddy for the next 50 years.

    Now back to the long wait until the season starts.

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  18. hockeydb has him listed as playing in Belarus. That's my source.

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  19. To answer Jake70, William Quist is now with Björklöven in tier 3. That pick was a bust! He had good size but lacked a bit of skill and a lot of desire.

    Klefbom was also drafted in the KHL draft. Anyone know how that works? Is it kinda like the CFL draft in that the "big" league (in that case the NFL) gets right of first refusal?
    I can't see any Russians choosing the NHL any time soon.

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