I miss the old days of Oilers blue, where logic and good sense held sway. The Oilers had a nice variety of players and they complemented each other in a way even a fan like me could understand.
Jason Smith for the calm feet, Janne Niinimaa for the offense and quality kids like Eric Brewer coming along. You add a free agent like Steve Staios and a flawed but clear talent like Tom Poti and it all adds up to something. Maybe you have a Sean Brown for depth and really all the bases are covered. It's a nice team on the blue.
In 2001-02, the Oilers rolled the following men at even strength: Janne Niinimaa (18:09), Jason Smith (17:20), Tom Poti (17:40) Eric Brewer (17:06), Steve Staios (14:38), Scott Ferguson (12:20). The club moved players in and out but there seemed to be a logic--a thread of reason--in the moves.
Since 2006 summer the Oilers have been waiting on kids and doing a cut and paste that honestly looks exactly like a cut and paste. Whatever the reasoning the hive mind enjoyed in the early part of the decade, the train of thought has been snapped off, the wand has been broken.
The Oilers decisions on defense don't make sense.
--
This summer is typical of what the team has been doing for a few years now. The foundation of the blue (which was Niinimaa-Smith with Brewer and Staios rising a decade ago) is Ryan Whitney and Tom Gilbert, with really no one rising. Ladislav Smid fills the Tom Poti role (a prospect with real flaws and despite a lot of NHL games played more project than NHLer), and Jeff Petry may/would fill the Eric Brewer role if they'll let him. I don't think there's a Staios in the group, but maybe I'm wrong.
This summer, the Oilers had an opportunity to add someone to the top 4D. Dollars were available, and they did have some options to add to the top 3 (which I count as Whitney, Gilbert and Smid until Petry arrives). The club would lose UFA's Vandermeer and Strudwick so there were slots available for the new hires and the young kids coming up.
The returning Oilers at even strength this past season (TOI w/5x5 per 60):
- Ryan Whitney 18:19 (1.58)
- Tom Gilbert 18:09 (0.61)
- Jeff Petry 16:54 (0.21)
- Ladislav Smid 16:50 (0.43)
- Theo Peckham 15:58 (0.70)
- Taylor Chorney 13:30 (0.39)
So, what would you add to that group? There are two guys the coach can count on, a third who has been trying to get up that hill forever (Smid) and has shown some progress. And you have an older prospect in Petry who could come quickly but is perhaps best suited for the time being on the third pairing. What would you add to that?
Cam Barker and Andy Sutton.
Sutton is somewhat understood--they were offloading Foster and I think both player and team needed a reboot on that situation--and Sutton fills the depth Vandermeer/Strudwick role (we'll have to see how well). Barker is the curio and the things he's probably going to be asked to do--top 4 even minutes, playing against very good NHL forwards every night, playing WITH a player like Ladislav Smid who has some Homer Simpson moments of his own--are perhaps not well suited to Barker's skill set and current situation.
Barker played 14:10 at evens for the Wild one year ago, but he's going to get 17 minutes a night for the Oilers if they slot him as expected. Barker serves some purposes, including backing up Jeff Petry on the depth chart and allowing him to start the season on the third pairng (or in OKC).
Based on what we know about Cam Barker, was that a wise decision? Is he a better player now than Jeff Petry?
In somewhat similar circumstances in the summer of 2001 (the Oilers had parted ways with some veterans like Ulanov and Musil) they signed graduating junior Marc-Andre Bergeron and mid-level free agent Steve Staios. This season they've added Barker, Sutton, Corey Potter and signed the promising draft picks who have turned pro.
The Oilers--at least on defense--don't seem to have the touch enjoyed a decade ago. I don't know what has changed, but it behooves them to get it back in a hurry.
I think the blue is the real issue on this club and why this rebuild is still down the road. Even the most cynical amongst us look at the pipeline and see a lot up front. There is a lot of potential there. And I think you can always find a goalie, despite the Khabibulin fiasco the additions of Salo and Roloson prove that even for the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteBut the blue.
The good thing is that it looks like there are a ton of prospects but they are just prospects and D develop by sundial for the most part. A few of these kids will make it but its a long way off. Its going to take some trades or signings to shore this area up if they want to compete in the next couple of years..
Seems to be a "well, I hope this works" attitude with the Barker signing. I am the kind of guy that gets sucked into it and on board with whatever this management team does. The glass is always half full for me. I had big plans for Eric Cole, O'Sullivan, Lupul, etc. I hope that Barker can buck the trend.
ReplyDeleteAll I can say is that at least they have addressed some of the areas of weakness. Why they can't address all of them is strange. I'm happy with Hall, Eberle, MP, Hopkins. No more basement dwelling, please. Pretty please.
ps. I live out in China so I am grateful for the radio show podcasts. Great stuff and I am glad that it has continued on into the summer. Thanks.
They've been patching the blue ever since the magical 05/06 run.
ReplyDeleteOver the last couple of seasons, I really have to ask if they're smoking the drapes though. These are high risk moves that look like they could be ok on paper until you get into the underlying numbers.
Once you do that, they look scary - even moreso because of the issue with the "MVP" in goal.
It's going to make for another year of challenging for the lottery unless all of the kids up front make a quantam leap.
The Oiler management is counting on players to play well in a role that is above their currently established NHL ability???
ReplyDeleteThen they will scratch their heads and ask where it all went wrong in about January?
The hell you say!!!
Woodguy - 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011
I read a lot of comments on this blog about how d-men take time to develop so don't judge them too early, and how sometimes players need to move around a bit to get their wakeup call to perform. Yet when a player like Barker shows up, everyone piles on like he's some decrepit 7th-round d-man well past his prime. There's a disconnect here.
ReplyDeleteThe funny thing is that they've acquired a couple of truly exceptional talents (Pitkanen, Visnovsky) and done nothing to retain them. Well, I guess that's not funny so much as aggravating and sad...
ReplyDeleteThe funny thing is that they've acquired a couple of truly exceptional talents (Pitkanen, Visnovsky) and done nothing to retain them
ReplyDeleteBoth quietly asked for a trade did they not? If you look in the Urban dictionary under the phrase "unhappy camper" they have picture of Pitkanen in an Oilers jersey.
Managment looks at the Bulin contract and the age of Hall et al, and the fact that the second wave (Hartikanen, Lander, Hamilton, Marincin, Pitlick) are not quite ready yet. So they just filled in at D with people that don't cost anything to get and won't demand multiple years.
When the kids show they are ready, they can go get one or two Dmen and a goaler and they should be ready to rock. Seems reasonable to me.
That Cogs trade is a tell. They wanted that 2013 pick because they don't ever expect to use it. Its going to be something they use in a trade - but that trade won't be for at least a year.
I actually like the Barker signing, I think I may be one of the few who does. They're taking a low risk chance, its only costing them money and if it doesn't work then it does not work.
ReplyDeleteI would hope and prefer that they start by giving the guy some confidence out of the gate by playing him on the third pairing against a little weaker opposition. He struggled in that situation the past few years, throwing him to the wolves in the top four doesn't strike me as the best way to handle him.
Not to say that this is what they will do although its SOP - sink or swim.
The problem with this D is the same as it has been for most of the years since 2006. Way too many bottom pairing guys. If nothing changes before the fall then we will know that its another writeoff year where they try and separate the good from the bad.
Bra and Panties reporting that Oil and Sharks talking and that Sharks are asking about Gagner and Omark.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what the Oil would want from San Jose, as I doubt they're trading Burns. Demers maybe?
Maybe the Oilers think they still need one more lottery pick to add an enigmatic Russian sniper.
ReplyDeleteThere should be 3 of them at the top of the next draft.
Fact: Charles Bronson was a Tartar.
Fact: Nail Yakupov is a Tartar.
Conclusion: Yakupov is as awesome as Charles Bronson.
The bigger picture says that the 94 deal only happened because he fell into their laps and that and the Belanger signings were both one-offs and were not as some of us had hoped: a harbinger that this team was ready to try and compete.
ReplyDeleteI can look at the wing depth and skill level on this team and see there will be some improvement but that can only happen when our D isn't running around with their heads cut off and that's likely to happen a lot.
So LT: does your view of the D change completely if you add hannan (who fills the Jason Smith role). It slides everyone down a notch in the order and solves a huge prob on the PK and toughness area. Funny how one move and things look a lot better. Best case a 2 yr deal to bridge the gap for the kids. Gives us lots of money falling off in 2 yrs, but also a chance to make a run in 2012/13.
ReplyDeletei will choose to ignore the goalie situation of course. Let's just pretend that is fixed.
On Barker, the Oilers are just simply buying here. I like the idea. He's on a 1-year contract, so they have a chance to reclaim him. If he bombs, it's not a huge loss. If he turns out to be OK, but not great, well maybe we still don't bring him back. If he's great, then we bring him back again.
ReplyDeletePetry will probably still get some ice time this year. For one, injuries will happen. But he can also slot in as a sub for Sutton when he's not needed.
He's got potential to flop (Barker), but potential to be a real gem if the Oilers handle him correctly. Would be nice if we still had Huddy here since he appeared to be pretty good with the young kids.
Oops, first line should say "simply buying LOW".
ReplyDeleteDBO: Signing a legit top 4 makes sense because Barker can play on the third pairing:
ReplyDeleteWhitney-new hire
Smid-Gilbert
Peckham-Barker
Sutton
And Petry et al for the injury callups.
re: BD's comments. I can get behind everything up to the point where Barker is being relied on to play legit top 4 minutes. It's a reasonable bet at a time when the club can afford it (they're not really going anywhere).
But imo it speaks to the larger issue, that the club appears unable or unwilling to seek balance across the depth chart. There's always something hanging out the back on liftoff.
The Barker signing reminds me of a Sather move from the 90's. Pick up a kid whose been a disapointment so far in his NHL career but has a great draft pedigree and was a high draft pick. I gotta agree with BD though, all it's costing us is money and at worst, it's a 1 year experiment.
ReplyDeleteI must admit I don't like Sutton, but for the other moves I think it's OK.
ReplyDeleteI think Smid's ready for top 4 duty. We could pair him up with Whitney, and let Gilbert protect Barker.
Smid:
QC: 0,005 (4th on D)
QT: -0,056 (5th on D)
Corsi REL: 2,3
OZone Start: 48,6 (6th on D)
Ozone Finish: 51,1 (2nd on D)
He seemed to assume 2nd pairing assignement with lesser help good.
As for the ''2nd pairing guy'' on the market. Who was it? The only one I saw was James Wisniewski and he signed for 36M$ with Columbus.
I like the wait. We check if the guys can follow trough, if not, trade for him.
It's not available on the UFA market, it's only going to be by trade, and there's no reason to pay before you know you have to.
I actually like the Barker signing, I think I may be one of the few who does. They're taking a low risk chance, its only costing them money and if it doesn't work then it does not work.
ReplyDeleteExactly.
It's switching the bet on Foster to Barker, which raises the ante, but there's a better, younger pot to win if the gamble works.
This is exactly the point of time in the rebuild to be taking gambles like this.
Missing out on Franson and Burns though are real killer misses... either would have given this D instant credibility.
Idk what exactly motivated Minnesota into trading an elite defenseman for a middling top 6 forward.
ReplyDeleteWhat about trading Khabibulin to the Rangers for Wade Redden? He has three years left (@ roughly $6 million), could provide some veteran presence on the back end and be bought out in two years.
ReplyDeleteBring in Emery and let Danis and he fight it out in camp for the second goalie spot alongside Dubnyk. Leaves us with $2 to $3 million in cap space for this year.
Fpb
ReplyDeleteBurns was sending out signals he wasnt going to re-sign jn minnesota. So they moved him for s guy sugned for 3 years
Sorry for the typos. On the treadmill
ReplyDeleteand let Gilbert protect Barker.
ReplyDeleteBest way to protect Barker is to keep him on the 3rd pair.
The Barker signing is a fine gamble IF you don't put him in the 2nd pair because he failed at 3rd pair for the last 2 years.
Putting him with Gilbert on the 2nd will probably result in the fan base hating even more on Gilbert becuase Barker hasn't shown he can handle it.
Also, Smid can't play the right side. Not sure about Whitney, but its never a good idea to play a Dman on his off side.
WG: Worked fine with Spacek and Hamrlik.
ReplyDeleteI'd much rather see Barker play with a competent defender, than see him play lesser stuff with a guy like Sutton or Peckham.
At worst play him with Whitney, he handled way worst than Barker last year.
08-09
ReplyDeletewe had three dmen who faced 1. above average situation when it came to comp and teamates.
2. were better than league average for GA. ( by tough faced)
staios
Souray
Vish
Gilbert Faced average comp with the best teamates and was not even close to avg GA.
Smid faced easy with average and got to the league average.
Vish faced the top ten toughest with the bottom ten teamates and was top 60 for GA. Jesus.
Barker faced soft comp with weak teamates and eneded up with better than league average GA. Same situation and range as campbell, Carle, Erhoff, Obrien.
Sutton faced tough comp with strong teamates and ended up with slightly better than bottom third GA. Same situationa and range as Hannan, Doughty, Staal, Daley, Bieksa.
09/10
Smid faced bottom comp with top teamates and ended up with top 50 GA.
Gilbert faced top Comp with average teamates and was just bottom 50 GA.
Whitney face toug comp with top teamates and was bottom 25 for GA.
Barker faced bottom comp with bad teamates and had top 3rd GA.
Sutton faced toug comp with top teamates and was on the edge of bottom third for GA with guys in simmiliar situation. Volchenkov, Hedja, Girardi, Keith.
10/11
Whitney faced toughest comp with worst teamates and was top 70 For GA He was top 10 for GA facing 5th toughest situation in league.
Peckham was one of 28 Dmen with Tough comp and Weak teamates. he had the 8th toughest situation in the league and was just bottom 3rd of the 250 dmen.
Smid was just on the edge of tough and average comp. He faced top 50 toughest situation and was bottom 70 GA.
Our right side d is set if we run:
-Whitney against tough comp,
-Peckham against average comp
-Smid against bottom pair.
we will end up with 3 dmen all in the top 3rd for GA.
Left Side:
Gilbert was asked to face the toughest comp with the best teammates and ended with the 10th worst GA in the league.
Barker is our PP option
He faced soft comp with the worst teamates and ended up with the league average for GA. in the same range as Ian White. Sbisa, Kulikov, Sopel, Sloan, Staios, Hunwick, Skrastins, Kronwall.
Sutton. Faced bottom comp with the worst teamates in the leaue and was top pairing (top 60)for GA not bad for the injured.
Sutton shows some semblance of facing toughest till last year. when he claims he was injured.
We pretty much need to slot Sutton with Whitney. Whitney was most successful with JVM when he stayed at home. Sutton drops in that role. were his numbers showed the same as Hannan discussed for the position. 08/09 and 09/10 sutton was near league average ga when facing tough.
Slot Gilbert on the second pair with Peckham. it should end up as top 3rd tandem.
A bottom pair of Smid and Barker should be top 3rd for GA.
The other option would be to move Peckham or whitney to the opposite side as a pair. Cause no one else has shown the ability against tough comp. that ain't hapening.
Whitney-Sutton
Peckham-Gilbert
Smid-Barker
the history and math shows no other way.
test
ReplyDeleteI don't think Hannan is top pairing anymore but he is the type of D we need. I wonder if we could go
ReplyDeleteSmid-Gilbert
Whitney-Barker
Peckham-Petry
Sutton
Smid might be in over his head but Smid/Gilbert play the hard minutes in this case. Think this pairing could keep its head above water till Christmas? At that point we should be able to get a capable defender for a 2nd rounder*. I say this because there isn't much available outside of the trade route which we lack info on. If that's the case and with continued improvement from the kids I would think playoffs is within range.
Its offseason you can only hope.
*It may be too early for this.
i think the comparison of Sutton to Strudwick is laughable. Strudwick was a number 7 dman his entire career, a guy who needed his fists and his jokes to even play in that role.
ReplyDeleteWhen Sutton left Atlanta he was a top 4 dman, as he was in Long Island and for Ottawa in the 2010 playoffs. He definitely seems to have lost a stop as he has aged but he is at worst comparable to Vandermeer, and likely is better. At no point in his career was Vandermeer ever a top4 dman and even though he is younger he is probably not as good as Sutton is now.
Foster, as we have all seen, is barely good enough to play in the nHL, and if not for his shot likely would have never graduated from the A, regardless of his injury or the tragedy of his baby's infant death.
Sutton looks to have had a bad year last year complicated by a minor injury and a coach who didn't seem to give him a chance. Given that he was a top 4 dman in the playoffs as recently as 1.3 years ago, and that he in one game put out Hemsky, Horcoff and MacIntyre with fierce hits, why aren't we welcoming him more than we are? And why are we comparing him to Strudwick when is clearly a better player with a better history, who was a sought after free agent who commanded a nice ticket three years ago from the Oilers and not a bad one from Anaheimm last year, a team not prone to handing out big money easily, or a team that has had a hard time attracting good players.
No doubt he is a third pairing guy, but a useful one who will be able to let Peckham work his way more slowly into the daily lineup as he seemed to be in over his head sometimes last season. He also may be able to teach Theo about positioning and shot blocking, as well as timing of the hard hits. Maybe, given their physical style of play that tends to lead to injuries, a rotation as the physical guy to go with the PMD in Barker would be a good combo?
Having our own version of an older, not as good Robin Regehr, while a younger possibly better version (Teubert) is growing up in the AHL may be a good thing.
test
ReplyDeleteYou FAIL!!!!
Woodguy: at no point did Barker Fail on the Bottom Pair. Math just is not there. he delivered GA. Don't sight Corsi or Femwick a 3000% error does not cut it. Give me cumulative corsi or fenwick and I will listen.
ReplyDeleteThose who question Peckham. Jesus. Tough comp, Terrible teamates and almost average GA. come on.
Gilbert was asked to jump from Bottom to top Pair comp. the second line role is were he is suited for this group.
Smid was on the edge of tough Comp and showed promise. but Peckham showed better results in a tougher situation. Let Smid kill The bottom.
The three players who showed around league average or better for tough Comp Whitney, Sutton, Peckham.
All you Slotting sutton @ #7. Did you look at his history.
08/09
NYI faced toughest best GA
09/10
Faced the toughest with Phillips and Volchenkov ga against the same range 2.7/60 to 2.8/60.
10/11
soft comp with worst teamates in the league at top of team in GA.
Signing Hannan to a one year over pay is worth it for both injury security/pushing the kids down the depth chart and is basically like spending 6 mil for a 2nd round draft pick at the deadline which he would surely fetch us.
ReplyDeleteBra and Panties reporting that Oil and Sharks talking and that Sharks are asking about Gagner and Omark.
ReplyDeleteI can't really see a deal that works for the Oilers there. The Sharks are thin on D and don't have any big center prospects.
The Sharks do have a few goalies kicking around and Tayor Doherty looks interesting. He is 6'7" and 230 lbs, a defenceman who put up 50+ pts last yr in Kingston. He is supposed to be a very good skater. He is SJS 2 rated prospect per HF.
Maybe Gagner and Motin (to clear a contract) for Doherty, Thomas Greiss, and a pick?
WG: Worked fine with Spacek and Hamrlik.
ReplyDeleteWho played the right side?
Hamrlik and Spacek are a bit of a different pairing than Smid/Whitney no?
Hamrlik and Spacek (both ex-Oilers btw.) have 2300 NHL games under their belt.
rickibear
ReplyDeletethanks for your work on dmen
i wonder what difference there is between Sutton and Hannan? Given that he spent most of his career in Atlanta, most of us have not seen him much.
In my last post I said he signed with the Oilers, I meant the Islanders. Also, I said he put out Mcintyre but I think it was Jacques, with a big body check.\
for those who don't think much of SUtton, compare him to Hannan the last few years, not sure there is that big of a difference, although he is four years older.
Ducey,
ReplyDeleteBoyle, Burns, Vlasic, Demers, Murray, Vandermeer, Braun are the top 7 D at SJS.
Boyle, Burns, Vlasic, Demers will probably play top 4 and that's one of the best top 4 in the NHL as a group.
I disagree that they are thin.
Ricki,
Why are you arguing against points I didn't make?
Strange.
Perhaps he didn't fail two years ago.
Some basic numnbers last two years:
10/11
52gp
QC 7/7
QT 6/7
+/-per60 -0.84 7/7
I think last year is a fail.
09/10
47gp
QC 5/7
QT 7/7
+/-per60 +0.48 1/7
Not a fail two years ago.
Point still stands that he has never taken on 2nd pairing minutes, and last year, with a cursory look at basic numbers, he failed at 3rd pairing minutes.
Trade Gagner for a defensemen
ReplyDeleteWin/Win
Anyone read OilersNation.com? Thought so. San Jose Sharks: "The best defensive group in the league"
ReplyDeletehttp://oilersnation.com/2011/7/12/the-best-defensive-group-in-the-league
Rickibear:
ReplyDelete08-09
"Gilbert Faced average comp with the best teamates and was not even close to avg GA.
Vish faced the top ten toughest with the bottom ten teamates and was top 60 for GA. Jesus."
Gilbert's competition, according to BTN, was slightly harder than Vish's. How exactly can you call his opponents "average" and Vish's "top ten toughest"?
Source
Some nice points there by Ricki.
ReplyDeletePronger, timmonen, meszaros and coburn disagree with San Jose having the best top 4. Theyre thinner than sj after that although Carle had 40 pts and was +30 last year.
ReplyDeleteI agree with WG, the Sharks have a very deep defense. In fact, I wonder if Douglas Murray is available.
ReplyDeletetatoeine - planet where Jedi are found.
I like the Barker signing, like someone else said, it reminds me of an old Sather reclamation project. Actually it reminds me a little of Eric Brewer (Lowe trade) who was traded from the Islanders. In 1999, the Islanders soured a little on Brewer and demoted him to the AHL after playing him in 1998 in the NHL for the entire year. The Oilers eventually traded for Brewer in 2000.
ReplyDeleteAnother example was when the Oilers picked up Jason Smith from the Leafs for cheap (2nd rounder, 4th rounder)
ricki: I agree Peckham faced tougher than expected opponents, mentioned it here:
ReplyDeletehttp://lowetide.blogspot.com/2011/05/theo-peckham-10-11-times-they-are.html
However, why would the Oilers--if they're serious about getting better--repeat this with Peckham again or Petry next season?
I guess my point is that there's no clear evidence Barker is better than Petry or Peckham at even strength.
And if we're agreed those two aren't ready yet, what makes us think Barker is?
Peckman is definitely ready for bottom pairing minutes. Maybe more if his development has taken another step.
ReplyDeletePetry we can be less sure about, as it was his debut at the Big Ball, and we have a much smaller sample size (especially with a fully healthy line-up). But he too, may be ready.
ReplyDeletethere were 92 bottom pairing players:
ReplyDeleteBarker had the
-42nd toughest soft comp situation.
-32nd worst teamates
-30th hardest situation of 93.
i would expect a +/- that would be 30th worst based on the set.
He was 27th.
What is interesting is Strudwick, JVM, Chorney, Petry had similiar situation and were all worse. +/-.
Barker is ahead at ev when it comes to 3rd pair. Improvment. with average GA.
Barker is nothing than a 3rd pairing Dman.
But he is sure going to be grateful having MP-Belanger-Omark as forwards compared to Winchester-Chipchura-Macmillion.
Boyle, Burns, Vlasic, Demers will probably play top 4 and that's one of the best top 4 in the NHL as a group.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I was not clear. By thin, I meant that SJS doesn't have the up and coming stud defenseman (a projected top pairing guy) that they might part with given their time is now. I don't know that they would part with any of their current top 4 for Gagner.
LT: Peckham is Chaos. but that is what you get from young players.
ReplyDeletewhen you look at what he was asked to do. last year. He was asked to perform in one of the toughest 30 worst situations in the league. he came out with better GA than these dmen with easier situations:
Schenn
Tyutin
Myers
Ericson
Polak
Robidas
jonson jack and eric
B. Lee
fowler
hedja
burns
komisarek
liles
ohland
poti
jurcina
weidman
rivet
phillips
beachemin
what in tjhis doesn't make you think he is capable of a lesser 2nd pairing role. when his results were better than thes e guys.
Those Peckham numbers speak volumes about the quality job done by Gilbert.
ReplyDeleteHah!
fampo - That's a good word, I wish it meant something
Lowetide,
ReplyDeleteI agree that there's a good chance that Barker may not be ready to play a top 4 role with the Oilers. What makes him a *marginally* better option than Peckham and Petry?
Games played. You've written before that defensemen develop by sundial - and usually they develop by throwing tons and tons of minutes and games played at them. I'm fairly sure you wrote those exact lines in one of your posts.
Theo Peckham, age 23, 102 NHL games played.
Jeff Petry, age 23, 35 NHL games played.
Cam Barker, age 25, 271 NHL games played.
Kinger i have 14 tabs in excel with the data from behind the net.
ReplyDeleteorigional post said only two dmen Staios and souray while flipping thru the tab grabbed the vish stats what i thought was. it is incorrect.
It was the only change in the origional post i preiviewed.
Rechecked the other data. should not have placed Vish.
the range have been posted in conmment in other sections.
i concentrated on Whitney, Gilbert, Peckham, Smid, Barker, Sutton, as a set. when you lok at the sub groups and GA. petry, Chorney, Strudwick, VDM, and foster were all improved on situationally and result wise.
the only real question is suttons foot speed relative to age and the average speed of the game being higher.
Type more slowly or employ some sort of spellcheck software. Please.
ReplyDeleteWG: In the beginning they rotated but in the end Spacek was playing off position.
ReplyDeleteSome guys may play better off-wing.
Ricki:
ReplyDeleteHow do you feel about Peckham's 'with or without you'?
By the SCs, he was terrible when paired with anyone but Gilbert. Also, Gilbert was better without Peckham. In this light, do you think that we should go into this season with a Gilbert - Peckham second pairing?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteKinger:
ReplyDeletewhitney is our 1st pairing tough comp. from this:
whitney-XX1
XX2-Gilbert
XX3-Barker
If sutton is xx1 then smid or peckham at xx2 though peckham showed better GA.
whitney-Gilbert
xx1-Sutton
xx2-Barker
Once again Smid or peckham. who is a good puck mover with sutton. Smid shows signs of carrying.
Now if we introduce C&B scoring chances:
you notice whitney is most successful with less mobile dmen.
w-Strud .533
w-VDm .494
w-Fost .492
than with mobile dmen
w-gilbert .438
w- smid .429
w-Peckham .250
that .250 eliminates any chance of peckham toughs.
gilbert and Smid not capable of the toughs. Whitney plays with a stay at home physical sutton at the top.
Whitney-Sutton
Gilbert was our best scoring chance dman. and most effective with a physical left Dman. who do you pair gilbert with?
Smid or Peckham. Smid could not handle a second pairing role but crushed the third.
Smid-Gilbert .515
Peckham-gilbert .462
The variance in SC from Smid- and peckham is not great enough compared to the variance in GA for that second pair role.
Peckahm-Gilbert
Smid is most successful with puck movers
smid-petry .523
smid-gilbert .515
Petry was 10 worst ga in his 3rd pair role.
Barker's GA on the third pair is better than league average.
Smids third pair GA has been top 60.
Smid-Barker
Barker is not going to play anything but third.
So maximum Scoring chances and improved GA. with
Whitney-Sutton
Peckham-Gilbert
Smid-Barker
There could be better players, but these sets should all be 2.6ga/60 to 2.2ga/60. Based on historic trends.
Injury to the top two well we are doomed.
In the future you hope;
-to retain Whitney.
-Retain Peckham as 2nd LD capable of 1st pair tough comp.
-end up with young large talent to replace Sutton.
-2nd pairing RD.
-a bottom pair capable of 2nd pair minutes.
I don't know... how many defensemen end up looking really good because of the Players they play with? Look at Gonchar before/after Pittsburg.
ReplyDeleteThere's a lot to be said for padding D-stats on offensively gifted forwards.
If Barker does improve, is that because he's playing better, or because the Oilers this coming year will ahve a metric sthiload better offensive weapons than the Wild did? Would you risk signing him long-term based on it? What if it's Sutton? Or even Smid, Gilbert, or Peckham?
I think that if this team starts scoring this year, it would be a good opportunity to turn some over-acheiving defensemen into more fluid commodities at the deadline, so that a valuable offer of futures can be made on a Grade A young defensman next offseason.
The biggest problem with the managemnet strategy of this team is making bad bets on players coming off career years. I want to see some smart bets made - MBS for GM?
that .250 eliminates any chance of peckham toughs.
ReplyDeleteI'm not crazy about Peckham playing toughs either,
but that .250 involved only 28 chances.
He was on-ice for 329 chances with Gilbert at .462; that was against toughs was it not?
329 was the most TC for any pairing last season.
Pretty easy to find common ground here. The Oiler's blueline, as it stands right now, is NOT good enough for this team to be considered much above 25th or so in the league. Doesn't much matter how DD and some of the kids upfront improve.
ReplyDeleteWay, way too many question marks about who can handle what along with the injury potential. Reclamation projects and players near the end of their usefulness aren't the right answers. ST should be looking to obtain players with either upward potential or stabile projectability of a demographic closer to that of our "future" forwards.
Buffalo has six D signed with Sekera and Gragnani sitting as RFA's.
Washington has seven signed, Alzner as RFA now, and Green and Carlson headed that way next year.
The Leafs have what looks to be eight NHL capable D signed, a Finger buried, (can I say that), Schenn as an RFA, and Jake Gardiner coming.
There has to be ways to get a deal done with some obvious candidates. I'm dangling Gagner/ Omark/prospects/picks to make it happen.
The point isn't "should Peckham get top 4D minutes in 11-12."
ReplyDeleteHe will!
The point is "why in hell would we START the season with Peckham in that role?"
You start the season with Peckham in the top 4 and soon Whitney goes down and you've added Barker or Petry.
Hell all of them will move up at one time or another, but starting with one of them in the top 4D is lunacy imo.
LT
ReplyDeleteRightly or wrongly I think the Oilers look at it the opposite way. .
Let's say there is a top 4 veteran D added to the mix so going into the season so the top 3 is Whitney, Gilbert, Vet D and one of Barker or Smid - the numbers may say that they are not top 4 but the Oilers are paying them like they are, or at least potentially are, so let's assume that the organisation sees them as top 4 material. Then imagine if Renney, preferring to go with veterans, makes Sutton and Barker or Smid his bottom pairing. That puts Petry in the press box or the AHL, and leaves 8-10 soft minutes a night for Peckham.
I think the Oilers look at that scenario and fear a setback in Petry and Peckham's development worry that they'll go into the next offseason not knowing what they have in Petry and Peckham whether or not they are top four or even top six material.
Now experience suggests that injuries mean that the 7 and 8 D get plenty of playing time, so worry that a veteran top 4 D will hurt Petry and Peckham's development is pointless, but I think the Oilers would rather take the risk that a young D gets thrown in over his head, so they can at least see how he handles it, than take the risk that they won't get enough playing time because they are being blocked by veterans who aren't in the long term plans.
My apologies for the incoherent grammar there. I probably should have read that through before posting
ReplyDeleteSome guys may play better off-wing.
ReplyDeleteWingers can play off wing easier than Dmen due to where the most often have the puck.
A LH Dman having the puck in the RH Dzone corner needs to make a good crisp first pass on his backhand if he doesn't have time to turn his body. Not an easy task. Off the glass and out is much easier in that spot.
Some guys can do it, but you don't want your primary puck mover ona the pairing (Whitney in this case) playing his wrong side.
Smid pleaded with the coaches not to put him on the RH, he simply can't do it, so he shouldn't play it with Whitney.
Ricki,
Barker is nothing than a 3rd pairing Dman.
Agreed.
That's why we fear the Oilers will put him in the 2nd pair.
They put players above their established NHL level all the time. That and trading way established NHLers without replacing them is the main reason the Oilers haven't made the playoffs in 5 years.
Soon to be 6.
I don't know... how many defensemen end up looking really good because of the Players they play with? Look at Gonchar before/after Pittsburg.
ReplyDeleteDon't forget how good Gonchar was for years in Wahington before he got to Pittsburgh. He sucked last year, but he's getting old now and was coming off 2 injury-shortened years when Ottawa signed him to that horrific deal.
That being said, I'd love it if we could trade Khabby for him.
If we're talking to SJ about depth goaltending, what would be the asking price for Thomas Greiss? Would we want him? Mediocrity has been his calling card with a number of up and down years in the AHL, although he has showed well in a couple of brief stints in the Bigs.
ReplyDeleteOh and when SJ and Winterpeg play, are they skating out of their dressing rooms fingers a-snappin?
WG: Fair enough.
ReplyDeleteWhat if they're just waiting to spend? See if the bridge holds, if it doesn't you patch it (Pick for player)
I think the blue is the real issue on this club and why this rebuild is still down the road. Even the most cynical amongst us look at the pipeline and see a lot up front. There is a lot of potential there. And I think you can always find a goalie, despite the Khabibulin fiasco the additions of Salo and Roloson prove that even for the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteExactly - we're one player away from fixing our goaltending (and if Dubnyk shows sustain, that one player might even just be an NHL-calibre backup, which Khabibulin isn't). We're more than that away from fixing our defense, unless that one is, I don't know, Drew Doughty. And possibly even then.
Well, I guess that's not funny so much as aggravating and sad...
People who are clear on the difference are not welcome in Oilers fandom.
It's switching the bet on Foster to Barker, which raises the ante, but there's a better, younger pot to win if the gamble works.
I'm not terribly bullish on Barker, but I think Kurtis Foster circa 2010-2011 is a worst case scenario for him. The Foster/Barker pick has probably improved our defense. The Sutton/Vandermeer one almost certainly has. We should see some improvement from some of the young guys, and other than Sutton (who's replacing Vandermeer), we don't have anyone on the downside of their career. I see a slight improvement in the Oilers' defense this year, bringing it to the level of "really bad".
Of course, Whitney's score effects are going to back to earth, which might make any actual improvement to our defensive corps less apparent.
I think a 4.00 GAA is a very real possibility this year.
ReplyDeleteSome memes die hard. When Bourque took his spin, you could have HOF players at forward and defense in depth, as well as a HOF player in goal.
ReplyDeletePost CBA, even a championship team will have glaring weakness. Boston benefited massively from the silent whistle in the second season. Muscle bailed out their lack of skill while Thomas covered up for any lapses.
Mediocre is the new sufficient, if you don't spread it around.
We need to take into account with all the skill up front that any forward (not named Ryan) who doesn't back check like a house on fire will be stapled to the bench if Renney possesses a clue stick. Ryan gives blood elsewhere so we can forgive him if he doesn't cruise around on jet skis.
Many of our forwards have elite hands and feet. A hasty shovel pass up the boards is a play that should work out more often than not. If we win enough of those battles, we can begin to take the offensive defensemen on the opposing team out of play, opening up a little bit more time and space for our space cadets.
I was wondering the other day if an elite washed-up PMG (puck moving goaltender) would offset our defensive woes in the short term: we could plug in another Sutton on the cheap.
What would Turco look like behind RNH, Hall, Hemsky, Eberle, Magnus, Omark as his outlet options?
We're still a Shea Weber away from sanity on the blue. And we're going to get that guy on reasonable terms when the rest of our PP unit matures into drool-worthy.
D-men willing to show up in present circumstance are guys with career issues willing to take a short term contract, or older guys who sense the looming downslope willing to take the Souray handshake. On the second option, we've already peed in the punch bowl.
Two years from now we're going to see a third group of D-men willing to sign here: the guy who will take a value five year contract expecting to make the playoffs four years out of five playing with a bunch of guys who help you look good.
LT is exactly right. The looming catastrophe is that this defense is passable if every available cog achieves his upside as lined up on opening night. And then what? Supply them with Nerf boards, Nerf sticks, and a Nerf puck, and hope no-one twists an ankle?
With the D-corp, plan A is plan B waiting to happen (if you're a realist) or you could say that plan B is plan A waiting to happen (if you're a naive optimist).
Adding an Ulanov plus a Turco to win more battles below the dots, supplemented with a troupe of elite puck magnets up front hustling their keisters on the back-check (our new TOI savings plan) constitutes a reasonable development year, before the phone starts to ring next summer with guys willing to talk on the premise of wanting to play here. Long term. For value.
Here's the frustration point: becoming too obsessed with line cards is the armchair GM equivalent of not moving your feet.
ReplyDeleteIn astronomy, if you want to know the fate of a star, you just plug in the solar mass, you're just about done: brown dwarf, red giant, supernova, black hole. It all comes from the mass.
rb has done a nice job of assessment: figuring out what our competitive prospects are with slots filled with the optimism of opening night.
From Wikipedia:
[Regalskeppet Vasa] was built top-heavy and had insufficient ballast. Despite an obvious lack of stability in port, it was allowed to set sail and foundered a few minutes later when it first encountered a wind stronger than a breeze. The impulsive move to set sail resulted from a combination of factors. Swedish king Gustavus Adolphus, who was abroad on the date of its maiden voyage, was impatient to see it join the Baltic fleet in the Thirty Years' War. At the same time, the king's subordinates lacked the political courage to discuss the ship's structural problems frankly or to have the maiden voyage postponed.
Discounting the first stiff breeze, our D looks OK.
So we figure out that we're three solar masses short of supernova potential. Lean back and wait for the phone to ring.
Here's the problem. Along with an entire wing of the HOF, we traded away the Red Phone. This is what Kevin never got his mind around. "Why won't the Red phone ring? Is it me, or something else?" Actually, Kevin, red phones are rare beasts. Most of those teams you beat up on in your glory years never had one. (Nothing lights up a red phone more than a HOF yard sale, but that's another story.)
IRL, 90% of what a GM does is arrange to have the phone ring, and not find out it's some guy with a thick Madras accent offering you another 500 worthless channels at a deep discount.
If you can't make the phone ring, don't find yourself muttering "Hejdacouldahadya" over and over again. Kevin was promoted to the luxury suite when he started to spin a prayer wheel.
The way this league is presently set up, you get a chalise for winning or a gemstone for losing. In the middle ground, you bleed hope.
Virgin gemstones take a fair while to polish up. In the meantime, well, you got the gemstone in the first place because you excelled at losing. That's likely to continue for some while.
In the new ecology, there are good ways to lose and there are bad ways to lose. The good way to lose involves convincing the phone to ring. You know your gemstones are the real deal when you wake up one morning to find that Dead Again is Red Again.
How does Tambi split the seam in the meanwhile? He's not going to reach line-card parity in a brimstone transaction of superhuman glory.
If you're being beaten game after game with the same simplistic formula (e.g. "take the puck to the walls"), that's a bad way to lose. If you're learning how to turn back-checking from a liability into an asset, that's a good way to lose (in the transition zone when losing is still on the menu).
Finding the right way to lose is worthless if you sink at the first light breeze of October. You need to figure out the right way to lose with a viable plan to maintain that minimum level. I give Tambi a passing grade on the former, and a failing grade on the later.
Dont't worry, he's got a plan. The phone will ring any day now.
One more parting shot from Wikipedia:
ReplyDeleteDuring the early 1980s while preparing for the feature film Rocky III, Sylvester Stallone explored the possibility of using a real heavyweight boxer [] by inviting Earnie Shavers to spar with him. Shavers initially refused to hit Stallone with anything other than a soft jab. This frustrated Stallone, who asked Shavers, "C'mon Earnie, show me something real." Earnie responded by punching him once near the liver, forcing an immediate retirement; Stallone later said: "that nearly killed me. I went straight to the men's room and threw up".
Win or lose, you have to at least be good enough to force your opponent to show you something real, or it's nothing but show business.
If you sit there game after game with your bishops trapped behind your pawns, while a better opponent picks you apart, you'll suck at chess for the rest of your life. If you post your bishop forward and trade legitimate punches, at least you're learning something.
OK, we've finally got some knights and bishops on the forward side of the board. Next up is to castle the damn king into a safe corner and not having him go walk-about in the center of the board after being foolishly exposed.
Having your king hustling around like Julian Assange is the chess equivalent of spending the entire two minute kill inside your own zone.
Fire drills are a lousy foundation.
@Deadman Waking: You're right, hockey is much more complex than astronomy.
ReplyDeleteLove your reference to a PMG, and would love to have TWO good ones. Alas, that ain't gonna be Devan Dubnyk.