Lots of news coming out of yesterday's combine, the biggest item (imo) being that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins proved to NHL men that it isn't all smoke and mirrors.
The other two things worth mentioning are that Bob McKenzie believes the Oilers choice is between RNH and Adam Larsson. This runs counter to all of the discussion we've heard about Jonathan Huberdeau making a late charge, but does jive with what Jim Matheson has been saying for months now. McKenzie told us that Steve Tambellini had discussed Larsson at length after seeing him in the SEL playoffs, and that in his (McKenzie's) opinion it was a choice between the Burnaby center and the big Swedish defender.
The final item: NHL teams don't have matching lists after about number 4. Why is that a big deal? Teams will trade up and down like a yo-yo so we should be prepared for it.
The elite 8 look like this:
- C Ryan Nugent Hopkins: Elite playmaking skills and fewer worries about size (officially 6.01, 171 at the combine) make him the number one prospect in the draft. Cerebral player with exceptional vision and anticipation. I think the gap between RNH and Couturier is so small that an item like "first step quickness" or "wide range of skills" will make the difference for a drafting team. I don't think there's a wrong answer.
- C Sean Couturier: Big frame, soft hands and a nice range of skills. If he ends up being Darryl Sittler or Joe Thornton the team taking him will have made a very astute selection. I have a feeling he'll go higher than many believe, although the experts are projecting him to go 4-6 overall.
- D Adam Larsson. The big defender has a lot going for him and I suspect he's the de facto "safest player in the draft." Smooth defender who has all the tools, he should have a long career as an effective two-way NHL defenseman. Offensive ability and the worry over defensemen and their injuries mean he's number three on my list, but he could go number one.
- L Jonathan Huberdeau. Closed late to join the top 5 and could go as high as number two. I've been reading some unusual things about his size (as in he's a big center) but the truth is that at least on paper he's about the same size as RNH. No matter, across the board skills and crazy offensive ability (including a sniper's shot) make him a nice option inside the lottery.
- C Ryan Strome. The NHLE's suggest Strome is the best offensive option in the draft, but the difference at the top (between Strome, Couturier, RNH and Huberdeau are clear of the field) is so close that Strome ends up being the trail forward on my list.
- L Gabriel Landeskog. There's just no way he goes this low, but the other kids above him have more offensive potential. Having said that, Landeskog is exactly the kind of guy the good drafting teams of yore (Bruins, Islanders, Habs, Sabres back in the day) would always grab at the first opportunity. If he scores 20 a season you've got an excellent player. At 30 goals a season, GMs who passed over him will cry themselves to sleep at night.
- D Ryan Murphy. I think he could go as high as #4 to NJD. He's such a unique talent--Murphy's NHL equivalency is equal to Landeskog's--that he's impossible to ignore. A stunning talent.
- D Dougie Hamilton. He's a beauty, real NHL calibre size, strength and mobility. He could calm the waters around the blue for years and years, and Hamilton has some offensive ability too.
Choose wisely, MBS.
--
Nation Radio is on again at noon today, with the following guests scheduled to appear:
- Jonathan Willis: The draft, Winnipeg-Atlanta, and the value of scorched earth team building will be on the docket.
- David Staples: We'll talk about the arena, RNH, errors and Desjardins.
- Kent Wilson: Flames observer and a talented guy. We'll talk Erixon, Hartsburg and the draft.
- Blue Bullet--along with speeds--are the best Oiler related draft observers I've come across. Over the years I've looked forward to their read on draft day and BB will give us his opinion about this year's edition. His 2007 draft edition remains a gem.
This morning Matheson has Tambo saying that he is looking for interest from other GM's for the #1.
ReplyDeleteI think the problem there is that team's aren't going to give up a lot unless:
ReplyDelete1. they're convinced you are taking their player
2. they can trade up from 8th overall, etc.
I see no reason for Florida to give Edmonton one damn thing, as an example.
Tambo can say anything he wants but do you seriously think that after tanking for the second year in a row they would trade #1? Besides he and Captain Blunder like the publicity.
ReplyDeleteJournal had another article yesterday where Tambo reiterated " last year was year one of the rebuild".
ReplyDeletehttp://www.edmontonjournal.com/mobile/iphone/story.html?id=4885522
This "last year was year one" statement should be a firing offense in itself. To ignore MPS and Eberle and Gagner merely to frame the future in the easiest light possible is absolutely disgusting. For the reporter to let that statement go unchallenged while mentioning those very players as part of the rebuild is equally sickening. Why is he not asking for some clarity? For some measure? For some acknowledgement?
I am finding it very difficult to get behind this GM any more. He had better have a wicked next 30 days.
I think that's been the mantra all along, and it comes from ownership. I know there's a tremendous rage over Lowe and Tambellini, but at some point imo you need to look at ownership.
ReplyDeleteKatz is running the team like a roto baseball team. He's just collecting rookies with the idea that it'll pay off down the line. That's what he's told the GM to do.
I can't really find a lot of anger to apply to ST when he's following orders.
I would have Hamilton where Huberdeau is and shift everybody down one spot.
ReplyDeleteAnd I think Landeskog will slide down. He doesn't score with a sniper's shot and might only be a 15 goal guy. He's low risk but doesn't have the offense to justify top 5 IMHO.
And all of these guys bring leadership, so GL has no real edge there.
It is hard to believe that the first overall is going to go ahead of three guys who made their WJC teams while he didn't. If that doesn't say project, what does?
We are dropping way too many clues to be taking anyone other than RNH.
ReplyDeleteI think NJD will take Couterier with the #4 and get him training for explosiveness. He is the best year over scorer in the draft. He has a very wide range of positives. He is very good sized, needs to fill out with muscle and is defensively responsible, wins face offs is +115 or so over 2 years of CHL play and kills penalties.
Unless he is an axe murderer Or has club feet such that physical training cannot pick up his first step or two, this could be the draft we look back at and ask ourselves "WTF"
Ryan Strome is 2011's Marc Pouliot/Scott Glennie.
ReplyDeleteStome doesn't belong in the top 10, nevermind ahead of Landeskog.
JMO
LT
ReplyDeleteThen why are they not acknowledging the collection of the other three rookies?
I agree that Katz' hand is in this. In fact, probably was in the Khabby signing too.
But that doesn't mean we need to iterate a plan of two more years of suck after this one when he had the two years before last year yielding quality players too.
All his statement accomplishes is pushing accountability farther down the road by re-framing reality.
Traktor: Well it's hard to argue with that! :-)
ReplyDeleteAnd unsubtlely too, which implies he thinks the fans are idiots.
ReplyDeletespoiler:
ReplyDeleteTambellini is accountable to Katz. Do you honestly think he's worried about answering to bloggers?
Come on. As for mainstream media, perhaps they can read between the lines.
LT
ReplyDeleteYour Katz baseball theory may be true. Don't think so, but maybe. I still think Lowe and Tambellini are in the "we are so smart" mode and have a plan. RNH is an example of that reasoning. One year great production who "projects" very well.
Problem as an organization is without the acquisition of a whole series of incremental advantages, they are on the same trajectory as 3/5 teams Willis reported on at Oiler Nation that were really good at failure
Strome's present scoring doesn't look like it will translate well to the NHL. Most lists have him lowest of the good young centres. Probably with good reason. However he's a late bloomer so you never know.
ReplyDeleteTraktor don't be disingenuous. This so obviously isn't about answering to bloggers. But thanks for putting words in my mouth.
ReplyDeleteThe scouts backing away from Couturier reminds me of 1994.
ReplyDelete6'4" 224lb right handed center, who went 22-64-86 playing for two teams?
Not saying that they had the same problem, but to repeat 1994? Good thing the Al Gore wasn't as prevalent in those days.
Just to clarify something from yeterdays thread where Choppystride and TOJ were talking about Anaerobic and Aerobic exercise and which is more important for hockey:
ReplyDeleteThere are 3 'energy levels' when it comes to exercise. Anaerobic means 'without oxygen' and it means that oxygen is not used in the metabolism process.
The first type of Anaerobic exercise is called Anaerobic Alactic. This is when the body uses ATP and Creatine Phosphates to operate at full speed for a very short time. Think of Usain Bolt running the 100m. This stage is short enough that lactic acid does not have time to accumulate in the blood stream.
Anaerobic lactic is when the body is exercising at 80-90% of an individuals maximum heart rate for 30 seconds to around 2 minutes. By this time the body has typically burned through any stores of ATP and has to begin metabolising glucose. This is why eating well is so important for athletes. They need to have reserves of glucose built up that the body can use for energy.
While in this second energy level lactic acid builds up in the bloodstream as a byproduct of the metabolism process. People who are in poor shape are not able to efficiently remove this acid and their muscles will be sore for days.
Aerobic exercise uses oxygen in the metabolism process. Think long distance runners or Chris Pronger staying out for all 4 minutes of penalty kill. It's important for hockey players to have a good aerobic fitness level because it reduces recovery times between shifts, periods and games.
The VO2 max test measures an athletes ability to transport and use oxygen during exercise. It's widely regarded as the best measure of cardiovascular fitness. When a hockey player does well in this test it's impressive, but it's more important to simply not do bad on it.
i could see why many scouts have Couturier so low. He's not exactly the most engaging fella. At the combine, he looked like he didn't much want to be there. RNH on the other hand looked like a million bucks, he lookoed the part and had very engaging interviews.
ReplyDeleteAll that being said, I don't think Couturier falls pass Florida at the 3 spot.
I like the idea of trading down, in theory, as I think the talent is close enough that it's worth it if you can get something decent in value.
ReplyDeleteNot sure I agree with LT about FLA, for example, it really depends who they want. If they want a guy they think EDM (or COL, moving to one gets them ahead of COL as well) wants, I can easily see why they'd want to move up. Additionally, if the bidding for the #1 pick is open among the top 5 teams, they may need to move up to block a team behind them from moving up and taking their guy.
what I meant above by "in theory" is that I'm generally for the idea of moving down, but if the two players in consideration are RNH and Larsson, I prefer staying at one and picking RNH vs. moving down to 3 and picking Larsson (probably, though it depends on what exactly is offered in the trade).
See where the Jets(?) are talking to Kevin Chevaldayoff...AGM of the Hawks. This guy is brilliant and will make a name for himself someday with somebody. We can only dream of having a guy like that running our team. For that matter we can only dream of having an owner like Chipman. He will not put his cronies from the Moose into important positions he will get the best man available for the job. Novel concept.
ReplyDeleteLowetide:
ReplyDeleteI think he's a flake.
Again, not the greatest of arguments but still.
Dougie Hamilton had 16 points in the playoffs at was +7
Strome on the same team had 12 points and was -4.
That's a pretty huge disparity. (+11).
Unless your drafting for need why take Strome ahead of Hamilton?
spoiler:
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry but who exactly are you referring to when you say Tambellini is "pushing accountability farther down the road".
spOILer: I think the Oilers are trying to control expectations. ST and Lowe are in charge of procurement for 11-12 but once the hounds are released there isn't much they can do.
ReplyDeleteIf they can stay reasonable healthy, if they don't play Khabibulin and if the kids mature at a reasonable clip then the lottery will be gone no matter what.
We can't overthink this: Lander may struggle as 3line C with MPS and Omark, but Hall and Eberle are going to kick the shit out of someone and unless Tambo plans on hobbling them then wins will come at a rapid enough rate that the Oilers should finish 10-12 in the west.
Honestly, this team should resemeble the December 4, 2011 Oiler team that came off the eastern road wins and won in ot against St. Louis (Hall scoring his second ot winner in a week).
On my birthday, the Oilers were 10-12-4. I think that kind of compete level--say 80 points--is reasonable.
That would put them at about Atlanta's draft position. Sorry I mean Winnipeg.
"re-framing reality"
ReplyDeleteThis is one of the funniest phrases I've ever read.
Too bad we're talking about the Oilers. Because it really fits like a glove.
"I like the idea of trading down, in theory, as I think the talent is close enough that it's worth it if you can get something decent in value."
ReplyDeleteIt works in theory.
In reality you end up Jay Bouwmeester and Nathan Horton instead of Eric Staal and Rick Nash.
Trying to re-invent the wheel when it comes to 1st overall is just asking for trouble. Go with the majority -in this case, RNH.
speeds: Historically, what is the payoff for moving from 1 to 3? I don't think it's big enough to give up the face time, and Clarkenstein is right there that ST seems to enjoy the limelight.
ReplyDeleteI think the real value in saying "I'll listen to offers for 1st overall" is you get tidbits about other matters, needs, likes, dislikes, ect that you wouldn't have otherwise obtained.
ReplyDeleteCould be useful when it comes to Edmonton's 19th (possibly moving down) and maybe you find out that a young player on another club could be preyed away when previously was thought of as untouchable.
What if Lou Lamoriello called you and said, "You know what, there really isn't much disparity 1 through 4 but we would really like to draft 1st overall."
ReplyDeleteWouldn't that scare the shit out of you?
Traktor: With KP as head scout? Yes. But I think this group can be trusted because:
ReplyDelete1. They don't go off the board with the money picks.
2. They do seem to have some ability to identify talent.
traktor wrote:
ReplyDeleteIt works in theory.
In reality you end up Jay Bouwmeester and Nathan Horton instead of Eric Staal and Rick Nash.
Trying to re-invent the wheel when it comes to 1st overall is just asking for trouble. Go with the majority -in this case, RNH.
I don't know if I agree, my understanding is FLA would have selected Horton and Bouwmeester even if they'd have stayed at #1, if that's the case then your concern isn't with the decision to trade down, but with their scouting staff's decision.
In 2002, Bouwmeester was the consensus top guy, as I recall (if my memory is off for either 2002, or 2003, let me know someone!), and 2003 was kind of analogous to this year (in terms of there being 3 or 4 guys considered for #1 at the top, Staal, Horton, Zherdev, Fleury).
2002 final Redline rankings:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/draft02/rlrrankings.htm
Speeds:
ReplyDeleteIn both cases it worked out better for the other guy than Florida.
Maybe Edmonton thinks 4 players are equal but if another team thinks 1 player is better than the rest he probably is.
All it takes is one tell.
Button was saying on Lowetide's show last week that if you still think a group of players are equal you probably missed something along the way. I have to agree.
Our guys might not see it but if Tambellini's getting a lot of calls that's a tell in itself.
http://cgi1.usatoday.com/mchat/20020620005/tscript.htm
ReplyDeleteKind of intereting read, there's even a question about Niinimaki near the bottom!
I agree it worked out better for the other guy (especially in 2003), but I still don't see what that has to do with the decision to trade down as opposed to their scouting evaluation.
ReplyDeleteLT's got this exactly right: this is a case of management given themselves (in public at least) the longest possible timeline and lowest possible expectations to work with. This is common practice is the business of public relations - the goal is always to put yourself in the position to outperform expecations.
ReplyDeleteMoreover, if anyone thinks its Tambellini's job to present the unvarnished truth, they're kidding themselves. Just like our debate in the Khabibulin thread, it's important to remember that the organization is interested (for a variety of reasons) in presenting a certain public face. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be sceptical and analytical about drafting and acquisitions, just that we shouldn't expect the public comments of the Oilers to strive for the same level of brutal honesty.
Finally, while I'm kissing LT's butt, he's also exactly right on the Oilers next year. Assuming relative health, this isn't a 30th place team. Any improvement in health or play from the young players will see a jump in the standings, probably outside lottery contention for the 1st overall. Lowe and Tabellini must know this too. The question is what they will do on July 1st to encourage this improvement.
Traktor rules!
ReplyDeleteI'll say it again: No disgrace in choosing the wrong player first in this kind of draft - but after the Parise/Riley Nash fiascos the last thing these dickheads(Lowe,Tambellini, whoever) need to do is show off how "clever" they are.
30th place 2x proves exactly how clever they are.
Speeds:
ReplyDeleteWouldn't trading down and assuming your player is still going to be there point to the fact you're not going with "consensus". Doesn't it kind of say that "I like this player more than most teams."?
More recently look at how it worked out for the Islanders trading down to select Bailey.
"...and Clarkenstein is right there that ST (Tambellini) seems to enjoy the limelight (having the #1 picks)."
ReplyDeleteOf course he does. He's not talented enough to make other player acquisitions that shine or bring him/Oilers acclaim or success. He's extremely unremarkable. /NewsFlash
Interesting how the perennial loser teams trade down(Florida, Islanders), while the bust to boom teams(Pens, Hawks) keep their effing picks.
ReplyDeleteIf Edmonton trades down I'm pretty confident that the team that gets the 1st overall will get a better player than Edmonton.
ReplyDeleteAnd obvious the team that trades for the 1st overall believes so as well.
Say the Oilers do trade down(an idea I am not in favor of),what kind of message does that send to your scouting staff?Is it a no confidence vote in them?
ReplyDeleteSome of you obviously don't remember this, but when Sather was running the dynasty no one worried about every move he made - since it was obvious he knew his business.
ReplyDeleteLowe+Tambellini on the other hand make wise men go far far away.
Traktor: You know that very reliable Button guy, who's best NHL player he drafted in his last 6 years are Lombardi and Foster.
ReplyDeleteI'd prefer the old lady technique at that point.
The problem with your assertions is that most of the ''trading down'' guys had lesser scoring/size etc.
RNH is just consensus because of ''projection''. Not because he's 6''4 and scoring well. (Staal)
I'd be interesting in seeing if JW will revisit his ON series from last week but with a wider scope. Five years seems far too short a time frame to judge a rebuild. As you've mentioned before LT with ownership and the Redwings, change can be a long time coming.
ReplyDeleteSpeeds:
ReplyDeleteWouldn't trading down and assuming your player is still going to be there point to the fact you're not going with "consensus". Doesn't it kind of say that "I like this player more than most teams."?
More recently look at how it worked out for the Islanders trading down to select Bailey.
No, it wouldn't, because you're not dealing with consensus, you're dealing with what one or two teams want.
Traktor:
ReplyDeleteIt might hint that, but I don't think it says that with certainty.
I get what you're saying, because why would a team trade up from 3 to 1 to take a guy that they think will probably still be there at 3, but it depends on the dynamics around them. ie, a team trading up from 4 to 2 to take the guy they want.
2003 rankings:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/draft/2003-06-20-draft_x.htm
Hey, I've been a defender of Tambellini here in the past, but this constant ignoring of his past good draft picks in this rebuild today finally set me on tilt.
ReplyDeleteLT, I'd have to agree with that assessment of the Oil's future.
Traktor, I agree with you completely on Strome/Hamilton. Hamilton looks like the better pick and i have him ranked higher. If Larsson goes top 3, I don't think Hamilton makes it past NJ.
The other thing is, you're dealing with so much uncertainty, honest varying opinions, and intentional misdirection that it's tough to know exactly what the consensus is, if any, in a draft this close at the top. And some teams might just have less of an appetite to gamble that their guy will still be available than others.
ReplyDeleteKind of intereting read, there's even a question about Niinimaki near the bottom!
ReplyDeleteDespite Niinimaki being a total bust, we did end up getting Jeff Petry out of him as the compensatory 45 overall pick in 2006.
Pretty disgusting article in which Tambellini effectively is buying himself more time. The Oilers will have, if they chose, $23-$26M to spend this summer on its RFA's and UFA's - is it really that hard to sign some talented veterans to 1-2 year deals and attempt making the playoffs?
The Oilers will have 3 picks in the top 31 this year (1, 19, 31) to further add to the already deep prospects group. There has been a strong accumulation of talent since 2006 (Petry, Gagner, Eberle, MPS, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Marinicin, Hamilton, Pitlick). At some point in time you have to start attempting to compete before you:
1. Inch closer to losing value as these players become UFA's
2. Risk losing your current veterans because you're not competing (Hemsky, Whitney).
Tambellini indicated he wanted to make the playoffs at the lottery draft, yet his inaction goes against his goals.
Appalling.
Speeds: As a poker player who's come out ahead far more often than not, I can assure you there are few real gambles in a poker game. Not from the winner's perspective.
ReplyDeleteGambling is what losers do - in fact, this is precisely why they lose - they develop a taste for risk which, spread out over a couple of hundred rounds nearly always leaves the "gamblers" behind. This is why casinos push the idea of the 'cool' gambler at suckers - helps encourage them to part with their money in a Quixotic quest for the cash.
The Panthers and Islanders managements are by definition, textbook gamblers.
I guess it comes down to having the following mentality: There's always the next hand, or in the case of a good NHL GM, the next draft.
Finally, while I'm kissing LT's butt, he's also exactly right on the Oilers next year. Assuming relative health, this isn't a 30th place team. Any improvement in health or play from the young players will see a jump in the standings, probably outside lottery contention for the 1st overall. Lowe and Tabellini must know this too. The question is what they will do on July 1st to encourage this improvement.
ReplyDeleteI suspect they'll try this:
(1) set a mandate to play the old broken goalie
(2) they'll try to trade away Hemsky for picks
(3) not bring in real NHL defensemen
There... that should help.
I'm a Ryan Nugent-Hopkins guy, and i've argued in his favour based on the ''saw-him-good'' approach and high ceiling.
ReplyDeleteBUT
The fact his EV/PP ratio of production has been at 50/50 for 2 years in a row is somewhat concerning.
That said, I'd love to see a break-down of his EV/PP production progression on a month by month basis. I suspect he showed growth in that area as the season moved along, and he still is one of the younger players in the draft.
Sorry, I DO like Whitney (though I'm worried about long-term health), Gilbert, and Peckham. I meant to say:
ReplyDelete"not bring in more real NHL defensemen"
PunjabiOil: Inaction? You mean on June 4th before the draft and free agency? Or are you referring to the past year when the strategy was very clearly a race to the bottom, especially after all the injuries destroyed the hope of a 10-12 finish in the West. We can have a reasonable debate about whether this is a good strategy or not, but it's pretty silly to suggest that Tambellini is useless because he effectively pursued this plan.
ReplyDeleteAs LT mentioned, after seeing the potential in this lineup and knowing that the injury situation may not be so bad, management has to know that the chances of getting 1st overall are slim and without lottery help, even top 5 could slip out of reach. Given this, let's be smart enough to wait and see what July 1st brings before ranting against "inaction". I'll be right with you if they don't try to secure a couple bottom 6 forwards and a top 4 D (at least).
Only did an analysis of March (includes playoffs)
ReplyDelete16 EV points, 12 PP points
(12 EVG, 4EV A, 3 PPG, 9 PPA)
You draw your own conclusions
Hunter: In that case the only quantifiable we have is suggesting that ''gambling'' isn't ''gambling''. It's the opposite.
ReplyDeleteTambellini seems neither competant or incompetant to me.
ReplyDeleteKevin Lowe on the other hand has clearly proven since 2006, that he's patently unfit to be anwhere near an NHL team.
Unless he stands outside the arena shaking hands with the fans - I'm pretty sure he can handle that
FPB: That's the long and short of it.
ReplyDeleteCatcus - I agree. This summer should tell alot.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, there are reasons for concern
1. The article suggests, via quotes, Tambellini is in no rush to field a playoff team and is content stocking up high draft picks.
2. Tambellini has a history of poor moves working against him (Khabibulin, Brodziak, Patrick O'Sullivan, Kotalik, Fraser, Foster, etc.)
I suspect Tambellini wants 1 more year of a top 5 pick. This summer, I believe, will confirm it.
I think Tambo's philosophy is this:
ReplyDeleteIf the kids can climb on their on up, they'l be ready, and then can bring help.
If the kids can't climb on their on up, they're not good/ready enough, continue stacking.
The more I read the more I think it would just be good business to try and swap 1, 19, and 31 for two in the top 8 and a shot at one C and one D. A "potential" quality D to go along with Petry would be a very nice asset. If a top up is required then so be it.
ReplyDeleteSpeeds:
ReplyDeleteI think there's a difference between drafting Couturier 1st overall and trading down to select him 4th overall.
One case speaks to Couturier being the best overall player, the other case speaks to Edmonton trying to outsmart the competition.
The fact that scouts wouldn't be banging on the table to secure their player at #1 is kind of frightening to me. You either like the player or you don't. If you like the player you're not taking any chances.
I'd put money on the team that is confident enough to secure #1 will end up with the best pick.
word verification: fackin
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIt's not necessarily that.
ReplyDeleteYou don't necesarily take BPA. If you think a guy's the best and he's 39, you don't pick him at 19, you pick a guy in the range you like and then with 31 you pick the 39.
You take the guy you can get.
Even in drafts with massive amount of vary opinions each team has a list and each team has a draft pick.
ReplyDeleteIf you like player A more than player B and you trade your pick doesn't that automatically say that you're going against consensus?
The only other option is that you are going to assume that the next team in order doesn't take the best player available. That might be a worse fault than going against consensus.
Why would you assume that any other team wouldn't draft the best available player? Doesn't every GM in the league now say that they draft BPA?
I guess I just don't understand how the degree of scout confidence changes the quality of the player? I understand that it's easy to be more confident about the #1 pick when there's a big gap from 1 to 2, say the Crosby to Ryan drop-off in 2005, or a perceived big gap, but the perception isn't necessarily the reality. The Oilers picking Couturier at 1, I agree, would seem to indicate they believe it's not worth the risk of losing him to move down, but it also tells us something about how the Oilers expect the others to value Couturier. But, does being picked 1st, 4th, or 8th really affect the player Couturier is?
ReplyDeleteAs for "outsmarting" the competition, isn't that kind of the idea of having a scouting staff? You want your scouts to be better at projecting the players, better at assessing their character, etc. than the rest of the teams.
Hypothetically, if EDM thinks Shane Prince is the best player in this draft, you think they should just take him at #1 instead of trading down and picking him later? I'm guessing your answer would be that they should take another look if their #1 is so far from consensus, but I'm just wondering how far to take your third paragraph?
Do two successful top 10 picks outweigh a 1st overall? Is it better to have 2 and 11 over 1 and 19? Would you give up a franchise player for two very good players?
ReplyDeleteTraktor: Consensus isn't that all of a weapon.
ReplyDeleteMost of the time, it's clear cut because someone is outrageously dominating the stats column. Consensus by facts and by opinion are two different things.
Having a bunch of people agree on something you can't empirically prove doesn't necessarily leads you close to the truth.
Test. Just. Bought an iPad. Testing out.
ReplyDeleteLT: Earlier you asked what it might cost for a team to move up from 3 to 1.
ReplyDeleteIn 2003, PIT moved up 3 to 1, the trade was:
to FLA: 3OV, 55OV, and Samuelsson
to PIT: 1OV, and 73OV
PJO....
ReplyDelete1. March 11 is RNH's one and only elite goal scoring month which is a very very slim record for a #1 pick
2. show me his shooting % in March or even that evidence is suspect
RNH is almost entirely a "seen him good" #1 pick which is very dangerous. Sure he could pan out - but the downside risk is excessive IMHO.
Even in drafts with massive amount of vary opinions each team has a list and each team has a draft pick.
ReplyDeleteIf you like player A more than player B and you trade your pick doesn't that automatically say that you're going against consensus?
Maybe, it could also say your trade partner is going against consensus and is willing to pay you more value for something than you (and 28 other teams) think it's worth.
ie. you're the team picking at 7th, you and most teams think the draft is 8 players deep. The team at 8th is willing to trade you 8 and 38 for 7. The team trading up may be right, they may be wrong, but I don't see how certain we can it says anything about consensus, ignoring how much consideration we want to give to consensus.
"I guess I just don't understand how the degree of scout confidence changes the quality of the player?"
ReplyDeleteI think in most tests if your confident in your answers it usually correlates with being right most of the time. If you're not confident in your draft list how can you have any confidence that you are taking the BPA?
Most people were confident that Hall and Seguin were the best players in the draft and that looks to be true.
"As for "outsmarting" the competition, isn't that kind of the idea of having a scouting staff, that you want your scouts to be better at projecting the players, better at assessing their character, etc."
I want Edmonton's scouts to finish ahead of other teams' scouts but Ken Holland also said if they knew how good Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk were going to be they would've drafted them in the 1st round.
"That said, does being picked 1st, 4th, or 8th really affect the player Couturier is?"
Historically Couturier will be best if he's taken 1st. Its a chicken and egg conundrum but I like the chances of whoever being drafted 1st being the best overall player.
"Hypothetically, if EDM think Shane Prince is the best player in this draft, you think they should just take him at #1 instead of trading down and picking him later? I'm guessing your answer would be that they should take another look if their #1 is so far from consensus, but I'm just wondering how far to take your third paragraph?"
I guess everything has a line where you need to draw in the the sand.
Kent Wilson seems like a pretty smart guy. No controlled variables. A lesser wrong. Blind Alleys.
ReplyDeleteI think advanced stats wouldn't be dismissed so often as "useless" if more people took an approach like Kent Wilson and how he champions them.
Brian Burke said the other day that he gets 10 new statistical systems every year and he or someone else his staff reads them all.
ReplyDeleteHe also said a stolen idea is just as good as an original idea.
We can't overthink this: Lander may struggle as 3line C with MPS and Omark, but Hall and Eberle are going to kick the shit out of someone and unless Tambo plans on hobbling them then wins will come at a rapid enough rate that the Oilers should finish 10-12 in the west.
ReplyDeleteYou are dreaming LT. EDM is going to be at the same level as CGY? No way.
THe Oilers are a bad team. Weak D, no #1 C, can't win a faceoff, brittle vets, nothing of much use on the third and fourth lines, weak goaltending, and what good players the do have will mostly be in their second year.
Once they incorporate the guys they have signed to contracts, they will have the bare minimum of players - and this assumes they all make it.
They need this draft and likely next to have the requisite depth.
Tambellini indicated he wanted to make the playoffs at the lottery draft, yet his inaction goes against his goals.
ReplyDeleteYeah, its amazing that he has missed out on the flurry of free agent signings and trades since rosters were frozen.
Appalling.
"He also said a stolen idea is as good as an original idea."
ReplyDeleteThen Burke has a second rate mind.
The man who comes up with 1 original idea will probably know the best way to modify that idea if needs be, since it's his original idea which came out of his imagination. The twat who can only steal other people's ideas is doomed to do just that...look for other people's ideas to steal.
Also, the mind that can think originally can always be counted onto produce other ideas. Not at all in the case for that second rate mind = Burke's.
Rejoice Leaf haters.
1. March 11 is RNH's one and only elite goal scoring month which is a very very slim record for a #1 pick
ReplyDelete2. show me his shooting % in March or even that evidence is suspect
RNH is almost entirely a "seen him good" #1 pick which is very dangerous. Sure he could pan out - but the downside risk is excessive IMHO.
On the flip side:
1. Every player has hot streaks when it comes to goal scoring. Perhaps March was just balancing things out for the weaker months
I'd be more interested in seeing what his shooting percentage was on the season basis, to assess whether luck was involved.
2. RNH is a playmaker - that's his bread and butter. He is said to have a very good shot, but doesn't use it enough. That's something that can be learned.
3. Scouting is all about projection and assessing whether the game will translate to the next level.
That explains why a guy like Jordan Weal went in the second round despite ridiculous numbers.
There are going to be risks no matter who the Oilers take.
a. Larsson - weak offensive game. Ceiling may be a Ohlund in his prime.
b. Huberdeau - played on a stacked team. I suspect RNH's numbers would be even higher playing on that same team, rending scoring rate comparisons meaningless.
c. Landeskog - just putrid scoring rates, projected as a 3rd liner by SMB.
I'm content with RNH. When the overwhelming consensus (Gregor polled 15 scouts - 14 have RNH at number 1) agree on it, there's no need to over-think it. You trust the scouts, and move on.
I want the Oilers to pick first. That way, the player they pick will be the consensus best player at least until the end of summer.
ReplyDeleteYeah, its amazing that he has missed out on the flurry of free agent signings and trades since rosters were frozen.
ReplyDeleteHe's been here 3 years, and still showing signs of "Evaluating." He also just indicated the team is in no rush, and only completed year 1 of the rebuild.
He effectively burned 1.2M of Katz money last year because he couldn't cut bait on JDD.
Appalling.
Unlike last year with Hall - RNH is all projection - he may turn out but frankly it's a coin flip and the most likely outcome is Kyle Turris redux. Funny how people keep on bringing up the uber talent Sakic as a comp but never the more likely outcome which is Turris when talking about RNH. Personally I prefer Larsson as the lower risk play - even if his ceiling ends up lower than elite - he will still be more useful than the most likely outcome for RNH.
ReplyDeletethanks for info M'elancholyculkin
ReplyDeleteI wish we had NJD list. if we knew they had RNH at #1 I would have absolutely nodifficulty with the pick. Also highly respect StuM
If we could get Colorado's #1 and 11 for our #1,19 and 31 I would do it to get shot at any one of McNeil, Siemens or Scheiffle. could not imagine Colorado select a centre with Stasny and Dechene on their roster
PJO: No one had such up and downs. I watched a couple of other top guys and it was way more steady.
ReplyDeleteCall Couturier Mr. Steady Eddie.
As for Huberdeau, his linemates were comparable to RNH. So stacked team or not, you only play with your linemates in the end. He was clearly driving the bus anyway.
Couturier N1 !
All I've ever seen of RNH is Youtube - but what I did notice is he's got fantastic ability to make a play out of nothing.
ReplyDeleteAnd the main knock against him was his size - but now i hear he's over the 170 mark - which at 6 foot plus hardly makes him an 18 year old smurf.
Now I read he's showing very well at the NHL combine(whatever that is).
So. To all the RNH haters - what do you want to carp on next? His goal scoring last March? I'd personally be worried if he'd scored a bunch last November then flatlined for the rest of the season.
This goes without mentioning the fact he plays on a very defensive minded team, which should halp him exponentially to make the NHL later on.
help*
ReplyDeleteUnlike last year with Hall - RNH is all projection - he may turn out but frankly it's a coin flip and the most likely outcome is Kyle Turris redux.
ReplyDeleteKyle Turris didn't play in the WHL, which exposed more risk.
Coin flip? C'mon man. Everyone acknowledges soe risk, but coin-flip is hyperbolic.
Funny how people keep on bringing up the uber talent Sakic as a comp but never the more likely outcome which is Turris when talking about RNH.
It's the scouts making those projections/comparisons to Sakic/Datsyuk.
How do you arrive at Turris as being the most likely outcome? They're both not overly big? Both BC boys?
If we're using the worst possible scenarios, can we go ahead and suggest Couturier is Chris Gratton, and Larsson is Aki Berg?
Personally I prefer Larsson as the lower risk play - even if his ceiling ends up lower than elite - he will still be more useful than the most likely outcome for RNH.
You're applying the same projection you're critiquing RNH supporters for, and discounting the risk factor surrounding Larsson.
RNH is at least scoring at decent rates. Larsson isn't on the first unit powerplay, and his stretch pass is not translating to results on a winning SEL squad.
Just one [1] goal in 54 games this year.
One.
FPB: RNH played with 19 and 20 year old's, almost all of them undrafted.
ReplyDeleteIt's possible RNH is extracting maximum value from his linemates.
No one had such up and downs.
A more meaningful and relevant comparison would be assessing RNH's points (and not solely looking at his goal totals) in measuring consistency.
He's been here 3 years, and still showing signs of "Evaluating." He also just indicated the team is in no rush, and only completed year 1 of the rebuild.
ReplyDeleteHe effectively burned 1.2M of Katz money last year because he couldn't cut bait on JDD.
Come on PJO stick to the point. You were critical of Tambo because he has not done anything since the lottery a month or so ago. The fact is there is precious little he can do at this point of the season.
JDD has nothing to do with anything, unless your original concern was with the judicious use of Katz's money last season.
I guess I am in the significant minority around these parts but I am heartened to hear Tambo talk about last year being year 1 of the rebuild. The fact is it was.
The rebuild light did not go on until Dec 2009 at the earliest.
If managment can just stay out of MBS' hair and let him have three lottery drafts, we should be set for a long time.
Spoiler: Do two successful top 10 picks outweigh a 1st overall? Is it better to have 2 and 11 over 1 and 19? Would you give up a franchise player for two very good players?
ReplyDeleteIf it's safe to assume that Taylor Hall and RNH are "franchise" players and using last years draft as an example : Are the Oilers stronger with Taylor Hall than they would have been with Skinner and Fowler?
As for Huberdeau, his linemates were comparable to RNH.
ReplyDeleteThat would be the undrafted 20 year old Hopkins played with as compared to the probable first rounders Huberdeau played with.Yeah,seems equal.By the way that same 20 year old never averaged a point a game till he played with RNH.
From the sounds of it the City is going to help Katz recoup some of those losses, so hopefully no one is losing any sleep over the poor guy's financial standing.
ReplyDelete20 years olds? It's not because they were bad at 17, that they're shit now.
ReplyDeleteKurdna 82 PTS
Froese (PP) 81 PTS
Persson 61 PTS
Phillips 96 PTS
Galiev 65
Holy shit. 17 points difference. And none on the PP (Where he got half his stock) You could argue he extracted the most out of them, but same for Galiev and Phillips. It's an arguement you can apply to just about everyone.
PJO: Comparing him to Sakic is weird because Sakic's a great shooter, RNH not. And Datsyuk's a later bloomer. Same applies to Larsson with Lidstrom.
You just can't compare a kid with someone who developped late. That is unless you plan him to do so, and to do so with a 1st round pick is foolish at best.
Cabbiesmacker, I don't know the answer to the question, but I suspect depth is better. An elite player or line can be nullified. But it's tough to beat consistently good depth throughout the line-up.
ReplyDeleteThe Turris - RNH comparison is interesting. Found this from Turris' draft year:
ReplyDeleteThe first thing to notice is that he plays a tremendous amount for a forward. Express Head Coach Rick Lanz noted that the team was missing several key players for the game due to injury and suspension, including Turris’ regular linemates Tyler McNeely and Jovan Matic. That said, Turris played approximately 35-37 minutes in the game, including playing eight and a half consecutive minutes during a penalty-filled section of the second period.
He is also listed then at 6'1" and 165lbs at that point. He is now listed at TSN as 188lbs - 4.5 yrs later.
He also went 66-55-121 in his draft year in the BCHL. More goals than assists, unlike RNH.
I am not smart enough to know if RNH will be Turris. They are a similar size and will be high picks. But there are a few important differences - possibly including TOI and the fact that RNH played in a tougher league.
RNH will be the 1st pick, all the local media and all the attention I can't see the Oilers picking anyone else. The comparison I would use for RNH would not be Sakic but our own Ales Hemsky. From what I have seen over the past year RNH vision and playmaking ability reminds me of Hemsky and I for one, would be okay with that.
ReplyDeleteIf his defensive skills are as strong as touted, I could see RNH becoming a Patrice Bergeron.
ReplyDeleteBruins PP might be as bad as the Oil's. They don't stand a chance unless they get it figured out.
Oh my god. They finally did it.
ReplyDelete"He also said a stolen idea is as good as an original idea."
ReplyDeleteThen Burke has a second rate mind.
The man who comes up with 1 original idea will probably know the best way to modify that idea if needs be, since it's his original idea which came out of his imagination. The twat who can only steal other people's ideas is doomed to do just that...look for other people's ideas to steal.
I disagree that makes him a 2nd rate mind.
Smart people "borrow" best practices from competitors all the time.
Often the pioneer is gets run down and passed by those who "steal" their ideas as well.
It's similar to the fact that most people who start a business are not the right person to run it after it grows to a certain size as it takes a different set of skills to run a large business than it does to start a business.
Innovators in any industry are the ones that get the edge, but there all always competitors who copy, but that doesn't make them bad businesses.
Slipper,
Re: Katz loan guarantees
*whew* it was keeping me up at night.
Thank effing christ. Hopefully it puts an end to Hughsons tumescence.
ReplyDeletePJO - we can identify exactly one forward in the last 20 years who was born in western Canada and played in the WHL or Tier 2, and scored better than a point per game after being drafted in the top 10 of his draft year. Marleau. So yeah I think the odds of RNH doing that are long given historical results if nothing else - but his his numbers also gives no indication of an all-star future either - he's all projection at this point.
ReplyDeleteBlue sky all you want but understand that drafting this kid is akin to trying to hit an inside straight flush on the river card. You can try and once in a long while it works - but you should not bet the house on it happening or be too disappointed with the likely negative outcome. I would take Larsson because he's played against men for 2 years now and done well - and the odds of his offense coming back in a healthy season are way better than the chances of RNH becoming an all-star. That said if we draft him I hope he does become the next Burnaby Joe for the sake of the franchise
Burrows is doing alright for an undrafted free agent who spent parts of 4 seasons in the ECHL
ReplyDeleteSo despite cameras showing Burrows biting Bergeron, he gets no suspension, then is in on every Dys goal in game 2.
ReplyDeleteFFS
If any Dys fan every bitches about the NHL or a ref I'm setting them on fire.
Burrows shouldn't have been playing tonight. Totally shameful on the part of the NHL to allow him to do so.
ReplyDeleteHe might be a good hockey player, but he (like Lapierre, Torres, Kesler, and Bieksa) is a garbage human being. I am a big believer in the words of Ryan Whitney - the fact the Vancouver Canucks are two wins away from the Stanley Cup is nothing short of disgusting.
Edmonton could use some of those greasy players on Vancouver instead of vanilla useful.
ReplyDeleteAs for Boston, they could use RNH on the PP.
Alex Burrows with a giant FU to the hockey Gods.
ReplyDeleteBurrows shouldn't have been playing tonight. Totally shameful on the part of the NHL to
ReplyDelete1. not suspend him for one game for biting.
2. not suspend bergeron for 2 game for putting his sweat and fluid in burrows mouth. might as well have spit blood on him
3. suspend Krejci for 10 games for cross checking hamhuis on the back, neck, side of the face while on the ice.
I hate vancouver and burrows like no other combo.
But come on don't buy in to the vesus nbc banter.
Yeah Hbomb boston lucked out on the decisions at the league level.
Video is all there!
Plus someone needs to tell milbury he needs a little stress relief over this.
Then tell him that they heard banging objects on desk are a good stress relief.
hen hand him a brown dress shoe.
Edmonton could use some of those greasy players on Vancouver instead of vanilla useful.
ReplyDeleteI'll take just greasy and good (Kesler, Bieksa), but sorry excuses of human-beings (Burrows, Lapierre) I'd want nowhere near my team under any circumstances.
Bruins need some depth on D - after Chara (who looks worn out, same as every playoff) and Seidenberg, who's their next best Dman? Ference? They have nice depth up front but so do Canucks plus they have the D.
ReplyDeleteGreat hockey but tough to watch as an Oilers fan. Oilers have only a handful of players who could play for Canucks. Long long way to go.
rickibear:
ReplyDeleteShow me the precedent that would state what Krejci did was worth 10 games. And the argument that Bergeron was somehow "at fault" is the kind of garbage that should only be expected from Canuck fans themselves - don't lower yourself like that.
Boston got, in a very round-about way, jobbed by Burrows not getting suspended. Simply pathetic.
AO:
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure how relevant it is to compare RNH to guys picked 8th-10th. I don't know what the cut-off should be, but he seems to be thought of more highly than the average 8th or 10th OV pick. BTW, that isn't to say I think your argument against RNH is wrong - I'm just not sure how relevant it is to compare him to guys who were never as highly touted (and that is an honest question, not rhetorical).
If I use top 5 picks (and it would be fair to say this is equally arbritrary, since there's no real reason I picked 5 instead of 4 or 6), there have been 5 WHL F's selected since the 97 draft (started there since I knew that was the Marleau draft, also arbitrary):
Marleau
Brendl
Ladd
Kane
Schenn
Johansson
Neiderreiter
I do think it's fair to say that isn't a world beating group for top 5 F's (although 4 of the 7 have been picked in the past two drafts so who knows with those guys), but the sample size is so small, what does it mean?
Marleau might not be the desired result for Hopkins, but certainly not a total bust. Brendl was a bust, but from everything I've heard and read his issues had nothing to do with talent and, from what we've heard of RNH, he doesn't have the same supposed concerns. Ladd seems to be figuring it out, not as early as CAR would have liked though, I'm sure.
that should be "there have been 7 F's selected", I was going to exclude the 2010 draft because of how recent it was, but then I forgot and listed the two Winterhawks from last year anyways.
ReplyDeleteRick Dudley turfed as Winnipeg GM
ReplyDeleteI would start Rask next game. I don't blame the loss on Thomas but perhaps some of Rask's flair on moxie could rub off on the Bruins players.
ReplyDeleteThey look dead.
I would pump Seguin up the lineup as well. Give him a chance to make history.
LT- I think the hockey gods are like the gods of mythology, mischevious and cruel. We've talked about this so many times - amongst the most celebrated players of all time - Shore, Howe, Richard, Orr, Mikita, Messier, Clarke - I could go on forever, were dirty, vicious, cruel, at least on the ice.
ReplyDeleteBurrows scoring is part and parcel.
HBomb - I think how a guy plays doesn't necessarily mean he's a bad person, eh? I don't like how any of those guys play but hell when I hit the ice I can be a dick. In his interviews about Bourdon for example Burrows strikes me as a normal young guy.
ReplyDeleteHBomb - I think how a guy plays doesn't necessarily mean he's a bad person, eh? I don't like how any of those guys play but hell when I hit the ice I can be a dick. In his interviews about Bourdon for example Burrows strikes me as a normal young guy.
Somewhere, there's a line. Lapierre is spineless, Burrows biting shows what kind of a lack of respect he plays with, etc.
Lots of great players played on the edge. Some even crossed it repeatedly (Messier was just filthy, and no Oiler fan could rightfully deny it). But somewhere, too much is too much. Matt Cooke is the gold standard for such douchebaggery, but Burrows and Lapierre both make any top ten list of "trash players".
You can play tough and with an edge but still have some degree of integrity. Kesler comes off as a dick, but not to the point he's biting guys.
speeds - yeah I agree that top 5 is more appropriate but I was trying to lower the bar by going top 10. Same difference - history is not RNH's friend - Marleau being the only really positive outcome for western kids touted as elite forwards in 20 long years.
ReplyDeleteMy point is that when people say "it's different this time" without solid evidence to the contrary - it almost never is - and no amount of blue sky changes history or RNH's performance to date. Risk management suggests that either Larssen or Coutourier are better picks - but this mgmt team has never been shy about rolling the dice or trying to prove it's smarter than the other kids - only to end up falling flat on their collective faces.
Spoiler: I don't know the answer to the question, but I suspect depth is better. An elite player or line can be nullified. But it's tough to beat consistently good depth throughout the line-up.
ReplyDeleteWith you all the way on that one Spoiler. I also don't see RNH turning out the be as big a factor as Hall therefore it would seem to make some sense to at least listen to offers for the #1 if they materialize. Depth at D and C are desperately required and they don't necessarily have to be the pick of the litter variety. Doubtful Colorado would be interested in swapping theirs for ours unless they're wet to the knees over RNH and I'm not sure #11 gets what the Oilers need in a D anyways. A trade might be all that makes it happen.
Asiaol:
ReplyDeleteI compared RNH's playing style to Pat Kane the other day so I was curious as to what you thought of Pat Kane and the 2007 draft....
"Kane = rich man's Cogliano - and again I question spending a top 5 pick on him - he has more pure skill than Cogs but is not as fast and very slight."
"Voracek seems the safest bet - tore up the QMJHL after Christmas when he settled into his new situation, was rookie of the year and a leading scorer in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs. Damn fine for a 17 year old in a new country. He's also got a great work ethic and isnt afraid of tough places on the ice - he's my pick."
"Voracek and ironically Alzner (for all the slagging he's taken) are the best bets in this draft. Doesn't mean that they will turn out to be the best players at the end of the day - but at this time these are the two guys who have shown the most "real" potential to be players."
Are you sure about RNH?
Show me the precedent that would state what Krejci did was worth 10 games.
ReplyDeleteI can not show you white guys but I can show you First Nation goons. Some 20's and 50's.
No problem with cross check to the head.
don't lower yourself like that.
ReplyDeleteSport is sport. To define me as an athelete. Sean Avery with morals. you are not a dick. I leave you to your peace. If your a dick. all rules off. only at the elite level.
all these hockey parent types make me sick. and the weekend jocks are total wads.
I have intentionally broke a persons, jaw, leg, arm, fingers and check bone because they had hurt others.
I have had people kick me in the face, balls and shove fingers in my nose and mouth. Did I bite no. stuck my thumb in the eye.
i have had an ankle, Knee, cheeck and neck broken by others.
In fact having been brought to a country to play. the night before the big game asked the team mates if it came down to winning the championship or fucking up a guy who had hurt alot of people. they said fuck him up. Jaw and arm. as i went off all my teamates got in line and shook my hand.
Not many teamates went to help the guy enough said.
life is a spiritual enthapy. I did 20 years of kharmic suffering for 10 years of living like a roman.
bergeron, krejci are no better. Burrows game tonight was Kharmas answer to Boston.
Remember his finger did not fly in burrows mouth. you know what level of mind that is.
Lowetide said...
ReplyDeleteTraktor: With KP as head scout? Yes. But I think this group can be trusted because:
Pfft. I don't recall Prendergast getting the draft cornacopia presented to him on a silver platter. The Oilers org doesn't need any help slagging the dearly departed.
unca miltie said...
ReplyDeleteTest. Just. Bought an iPad. Testing out.
Where is PJO when you need him?
Trak you are honestly comparing Kane's numbers to RNH? It's not close and you know it. I admit Kane has done better than I thought he would - but his junior numbers were far far better than RNH - it's no comparison. RNH is actually closer to Gagner as a comparable.
ReplyDeleteBut how about presenting some actual evidence that supports you case? I can do a search on any number of issues and find stuff that you came out on the wrong side of. What does that prove about RNH? The answer to that is as you know - nothing.
There is a possibility that RNH becomes the next Sakic - but right now there's not much more than a bunch of people drawing lines northeast on a graph of his March 2011 scoring stats. He's a boom or bust pick and that's not what you prefer at #1.
yeah I agree that top 5 is more appropriate but I was trying to lower the bar by going top 10. Same difference - history is not RNH's friend - Marleau being the only really positive outcome for western kids touted as elite forwards in 20 long years
ReplyDeleteYea, but there haven't exactly been a tonne of swedish defencemen taken number one in the last twenty years either. Hedman is the only one taken top two, and he doesn't look like an all star. History is not on Larsson's side either.
Maybe the WHL is due to produce another Modano. I don't think you can make decisions on prospects based on league, nationality, or position, or you'd just draft the Ontario born center first overall every season.
AO:
ReplyDeleteI don't understand your reticence towards picking RNH. He is the consensus #1, his numbers look good, scouts like him, and he performed well at the combine.
I think trying to outsmart everyone with the number 1 pick is a recipe for disaster. Atlanta tried it once with Patrick Stefan; didn't work out too well for them, did it?
he's all projection at this point.
ReplyDeleteAnd 1 goal in 54 games Larsson isn't?
It's not the defensive part of the game people are questioning - but to be drafted that highly, Larsson has to produce offensively.
4 goals in 60 games last year
1 goal in 54 game this year.
Lets be fair - this is projection.
Worst case scenario - he's Aki Berg
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=16597
Likely scenario - Mattias Ohlund
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=14084
Best case scenario - Shea Weber
Personally, don't see the value in drafting a defenceman with offensive question marks surrounding him.
Yea, but there haven't exactly been a tonne of swedish defencemen taken number one in the last twenty years either. Hedman is the only one taken top two, and he doesn't look like an all star. History is not on Larsson's side either.
Maybe the WHL is due to produce another Modano. I don't think you can make decisions on prospects based on league, nationality, or position, or you'd just draft the Ontario born center first overall every season.
Well said.
Atlanta tried it once with Patrick Stefan
To be fair, that was a very weak draft and Atlanta was somewhat handcuffed with the Sedins expressing desire to play together.
The real lesson from the Stefan blunder is avoid drafting players from inferior leagues (IHL, Junior A, USL) that high.
Stefan, Turris, Colborne all recent examples
I'm not thrilled with this draft period - all the top picks have serious issues that you don't want to see with a #1. RNH's lack of ES goalscoring, Coutourier's speed, Larsson's a dman and lacked scoring this season. It's not like I'm arguing for anyone in particular. If Jeff Carter really is the table I'd deal the #1 for him in a NY minute.
ReplyDeleteUsing a CHL league's draft history as a determining factor for 1st overall is sheer madness.
ReplyDeleteJust for curiosity, I checked out Jeff Carter's numbers in juniors
ReplyDelete71 points in 61 games in his draft year.
74 in 55 2 years later
________________
I'm okay with selecting RNH and riding it out. Elite vision, as I've witnessed 3 Oil-Kings/Rebels games i went to this year, can't be taught.
If he pans out like he's projected to be, he'll fill the void left since Doug Weight was traded over a decade ago.
Impressive when you think of it - our top 6 could be all composed of drafted players
Hall (2010)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2011)
Eberle (2008)
MPS (2009)
Gagner (2007)
Hemsky (2001)
Even the bottom six:
Omark (2007)
Horcoff (1998)
Cogliano (2005)
With others waiting for their shot:
Lander (2009)
Pitlick (2010)
Hamilton(2010)
Hartikainen (2008)
Most of these guys are young, but you'd think it's only a matter of time before dividends are paid out.
I've been learning to live with shitty teams winning the cup, but it's hard. The Devils, Dallas...Fuckin' Anaheim won a cup. So I won't be too disappointed when Vancouver gets one.
ReplyDeleteBut players like Lapierre just piss me off when they get their name engraved in the cup. It's despicable.
Burrows scored a nice goal but it will forever be overshadowed by the biting incident. His NHL history will be a bland one.
Here's to another generation of inspirational talents that you and your children can be proud of. Go Oilers!
The real lesson from the Stefan blunder is avoid drafting players from inferior leagues (IHL, Junior A, USL) that high.
ReplyDeleteThe IHL was an inferior league?
If only half of the IHL teams were good enough to compete with AHL clubs, it would have been miles better than any junior league.
I'm not sure all this flagellating over the first pick is necessary. I think Asiaoil said it best (although with a more negative bent than I see it) - the top pick candidates are all very good with a particular flaw or two. I think it's pretty unlikely they miss here. Even with the dman and I am from the school of thought that dmen should usually be avoided with high picks.
The real lesson from the Stefan blunder is avoid drafting players from inferior leagues (IHL, Junior A, USL) that high.
ReplyDeletePerhaps it has been learned:
Player A:
6'1" 165 lbs 53GP 66-55-121 in BCHL
Player B:
6'1" 173lbs 56GP 41-79-120 in BCHL
A=Turris, taken 3rd overall
B=Beau Bennett taken 20th overall by Pittsburg last draft
LT,
ReplyDeleteI would love a piece on the Oilers and the WHL. Last year they selected guys either in the WHL or guys that wound up there.
Perhaps it was just a coincidence, perhaps they couldn't get the scout coupe out of the garage and just hung out watching Oil Kings games. More likely is that they have determined that WHL guys are more likely to be happy to stay in EDM and that they have the grit they are looking for.
In any event I think we are in for more WHL guys drafted by MBS this year. HF has an article up that lists their top 10 WHL players available:
1.RNH
2.Bartschi
3.Siemens
4.Morrow
5.Musil
6.McNeil
7.Rattie
8. Colin Jacobs
9. Tyler Wotherspoon
10.Myles Bell (apparently he is facing charges for a MVA)
I'd have McNeil ahead of Siemens and Musil. Morrow has really jumped with a good playoff but I don't know if he is ahead of McNeil either.
PJO said...
ReplyDeleteIf he pans out like he's projected to be, he'll fill the void left since Doug Weight was traded over a decade ago.
Wow. Hemsky hasn't even been traded yet and already he's forgotten.
Hilarious to watch the Burrow's bite.....wonder why he brings his left hand/glove up to cover his face? itchy nose maybe? or maybe there might be some tv cameras in the building.....pathetic.....that said, was a great effort on his winning goal to get anything on it and the angle....
ReplyDeleteSpoiler,
ReplyDeleteI think the Weight reference was specifically refering to a 1C, rather than an elite player/playmaker.
PJO:
ReplyDeletet's not the defensive part of the game people are questioning - but to be drafted that highly, RNH has to produce goals offensively.
Lets be fair - this is projection. As a 1.55PPG player
worst case:
Bonsignore -
likely:
Daigle -
Best Case
Gagner-
Personally, don't see the value in drafting a Center with offensive question marks surrounding him.
Yea, but there haven't exactly been a tonne of 30% centers taken number one in the last twenty years either. Stefan is the only one taken top two, and he doesn't look like an all star. History is not on RNH side either.
Maybe the SEL is due to produce another Lidstrom. I don't think you can make decisions on prospects based on league, nationality, or position, or you'd just draft the Ontario born center first overall every season.
WELL SAID ME!
Tampa tried that with Hedmann
To be fair, there was a clear #1 forward and Tampa was somewhat handcuffed with the the media saying that was the clear top two.
The real lesson from the Hedmann blunder is avoid drafting players from SEL. Bahahahahahahaha!
Talking about great young Dmen from the SEL doesn't have quit the same fear factor as 30 % centers.
Daigle BOO
Bonsignore BOO
Stefan BOO
Man I am going to save this template. Its good!
Just curios about Carter (50%) and .7PPG
yeah I would like a player like that.
players like Lapierre just thrill me off when they get their name engraved in the cup. It's great they go to the gutter so the top 6 do not have too.
Good on you bergeron for going out and scoring the overtime goal... ah erh!
Matheson today:
ReplyDeleteSaint John Sea Dogs Memorial Cup playoff MVP Jonathan Huberdeau played on the left wing 95 per cent of the time this season, while fellow first-rounder Zack Phillips played centre. NHL teams are aware the top-four pick can play middle or wing. This is a plus for the Colorado Avalanche, who pick second because they’ve got Matt Duchene and Paul Stastny locked into the middle. The Oilers are intrigued by Huberdeau as well.
The real lesson from the Hedmann blunder is avoid drafting players from SEL.
ReplyDeleteI was unaware that a 20 year old playing 1st pairing mintues on a team that made the conference finals constitutes a blunder.
That's usually a spot held down by by 28+ year old vet.
Why do you think the Hedman pick was a blunder?
Yesterday: coaching my 3yr olds U$ soccer team at a tournament.
ReplyDeleteTonne of oilers fans all talking about RNH. Larsson guy in the group. He states he likes him. Guys laugh at him a bit. Would not have said anything but scout for Spokane was RNH guy laughing. How dare he not like a WHL guy.
Walked over and said to the Larsson. guy in front of the others. I see you do not like the RNH risk either. "oh you don't know. Then spouted the 30% thing. looked at the Spokane scout said how do you not know that. He has allways given attitude to my wife. It was very quiet and i walked away.
Watching The excitment of MSM RNH fans as great. the smile is what we need from this year. But do not be pricks because someone questions picking the chosen one.
worst case:
ReplyDeleteBonsignore -
likely:
Daigle -
Do you think that if you put the drive and motivation of Taylor Hall or Jonathon Toews in JG or AD that they may have been more successful? Trying to say these two busts are comps for anyone because they are also playmakers is ridiculous.
But do not be pricks because someone questions picking the chosen one.
That whole kettle and black thing comes to mind...
@Rickibear:
ReplyDeleteyesterday you posted this:
I have intentionally broke a persons, jaw, leg, arm, fingers and check bone because they had hurt others.
I have had people kick me in the face, balls and shove fingers in my nose and mouth. Did I bite no. stuck my thumb in the eye.
i have had an ankle, Knee, cheeck and neck broken by others.
In fact having been brought to a country to play. the night before the big game asked the team mates if it came down to winning the championship or fucking up a guy who had hurt alot of people. they said fuck him up. Jaw and arm. as i went off all my teamates got in line and shook my hand.
I am pretty sure you shouldn't be coaching kids in anything.
Jamie: They're not necessarily nicked because they were playmakers.
ReplyDeleteGuys in the 30% area see theyr NHLE drop by around 40%. If your scoring is enough to cover for it, you're good to go. If not then too bad.
I'm still rooting for Couturier/Huberdeau at the top pick. More Couturier.
It's the historically safe bet, 90% chance Mr. Couturier pots at least one 70 points season, and 95% he pots at least one 60.
Rickibear - For the record I've been a Larsson fan most of the year. But, I think you've lost the plot. I hope this 30% rule of yours works out for you, because now that you've seen fit to take it out into the wild, and are randomly espousing it while eavesdropping on others, you sound a little crazy, dude.
ReplyDeleteI don't think anyone is "being a prick" because you're questioning RNH's possible selection, they're just taking you to task because you haven't backed-up your theory in any substantial way.
I applaud the attempt at original thought and analysis, though.
Oh and on Burrows. Well. I can't say I'm pissed they didn't suspended him.
ReplyDeleteIf you put your dirty glove in someones mouth don't expect it to be powdered with sugar. He didn't exactly reach for it.
Can't but have a little respect for a man who climbed his way up like he did.
rickibear: Sometimes things are quiet for a reason.
ReplyDeleteWalked over and said to the Larsson. guy in front of the others. I see you do not like the RNH risk either. "oh you don't know. Then spouted the 30% thing. looked at the Spokane scout said how do you not know that. He has allways given attitude to my wife. It was very quiet and i walked away.
ReplyDeleteI'm still trying to understand what this story even means.
Sometimes things are quiet for a reason.
Asiaoil:
ReplyDeleteCan you really fault me for being curious what your position was in the past? I only do so because I you've made some good points over the years. As I said before, I see some similarities in 2007 and 2011.
"I admit Kane has done better than I thought he would - but his junior numbers were far far better than RNH - it's no comparison."
That's just it. If you weren't impressed with Pat Kane's numbers how could we ever expect you to give respect to RNH's numbers? Pat Kane had 145 points 58 games in his draft year.
I can't decipher ricki's posts any more. I've given up. Good ideas are wasted when they can't be communicated.
ReplyDeleteIn the same article I quoted above, Matheson lays the groundwork for another lottery pick finish next season...
It’s 60-40 odds that the Oilers go for the Red Deer Rebel over big Swedish defenceman Adam Larsson because the 2012 entry draft is top-heavy in defencemen and there are few great centres in the mix.
So we're taking a centre this year because we will have a shot at a top Dman next year? How does the team feel about shooting for another lottery pick?
By the way has anyone told Tambellini that Dmen take longer to develop?
And I can't imagine what coaching 3 yr olds in soccer entails.
ReplyDeleteSeems like RNH kept hearing how much he sucked at goal scoring all year, while developing his defence - then come March decided to show everyone what he was made of.
ReplyDeleteIf this is true, he's easily the best player in the draft.
Why he's getting compared to lame-assed prospects from the past is beyond me - this kid is totally driven.
spOILer: I know what you mean. It's nearly impossible to get 3 year olds to play the offside trap properly.
ReplyDeleteworst case:
ReplyDeleteBonsignore -
likely:
Daigle -
Best Case
Gagner-
I think again you're not giving the scouting community enough credit here. We're talking about the first overall selection in the draft. Daigle is the only guy that was ranked first in your list and I think it's fair to say that personal issues were his downfall. Not lack of talent. There's no reason that we know of to believe that Nugent-Hopkins will suffer he same fate.
I think your "Boxcar Ricki" theory has some merit but there is an overwhelming amount of people in the know that say Nugent-Hopkins is the guy at the top of the pile and that also holds a lot of merit.
We're getting a quality guy at number one, no matter who they pick. So try to not get so worked up about it!
FPB:
ReplyDeleteI get the theory, just don't buy it. Sample size is too small and there are too many variables involved.
2/3 comparables used are players that had major character flaws that contributed to their lack of success. Context. Would you not agree that their character issues were a bigger factor than their %goals?
The relationship in the theory is correlative not causative, making the sample size even more important, and its ability to predict the very next outcome even more tenuous.
ReplyDeleteHunter: Bwahaha!
ReplyDeleteI'd be less worried if it wasn't the case for everyone.
ReplyDeleteNormally I think it's important to verify context.
But absolutely NONE of them have defied these rules. I have yet to see one guy who countered the point.
Jamie: Well, Paul Kariya didn't have an attitude issue and still dropped big time. Attitude issue or not, succesful or not, they all dropped 40% regardless.
And I can't imagine what coaching 3 yr olds in soccer entails
ReplyDeleteYoungest age group in Edmonton is Under 6 mixed boys and girls and is only open to 5 & 6 year olds.
Don't think 3 year olds are eligible for community league soccer play and club level starts at U12 I think.
And I can't imagine what coaching 3 yr olds in soccer entails.
ReplyDeleteYou can bet Ricki doesn't spend any time teaching the pass. After all, only the ball hogs are going to make it in the pros.
Kirk Luedeke has his scouting report on Mark McNeill up:
ReplyDeletehttp://bruins2011draftwatch.blogspot.com/2011/06/50-in-30-17-mark-mcneill.html
He has him at #17, in the range of our second pick, but admits the big centre will probably go top 15.
You can bet Ricki doesn't spend any time teaching the pass. After all, only the ball hogs are going to make it in the pros.
ReplyDeleteYes, Xavi, Inesta and Pirlo would not pass the "Ricki Boxcar test."