Each spring the NHL draft comes into view in small steps. The first CSS lists give everyone the road map and Bob McKenzie's pre-season and midway lists offer clarity and structure. By the end of the season, fans usually have a good handle on the CHL kids, with top flight American high school and college kids coming into focus. It's the Euro kids we can't slot, probably because NHL teams haven't held their meetings with both NA and Euro scouts giving their input.
Later this week, Bob McKenzie will post his final list (it's on Monday) and that will give us the best guideline for the first round. I've posted two top 30's over at ON, and this one closely resembles the previous one at the Nation. I wanted to put one here for reference, so apologies if this reads like a repeat.
- C Ryan Nugent Hopkins: I think the separation comes down to things like first step quickness, ability to make plays and anticipation. The numbers suggest there are four forwards in a tight group at the top, but the "saw him good" group have all reached the same conclusion: he's the BPA. I'm impressed that so many scouts and scouting services mention his 2-way game. I think the Oil Kings playoff series and his performance in the Top Prospects game (where he made a sweet Doug Weight pass to Sven Bartschi on one shift and then broke up a play while hauling ass on the back check on the next shift) cemented RNH as the class of this year's graduates.
- C Sean Couturier: Never let it be said by Oiler fans that the big #1 center with a wide range of skills was never available to them in the draft. He's right here, waiting. Sean Couturier has a complete tool kit and delivered a wonderful season (including a WJC appearance) while suffering from mono and a crazy schedule.
- D Adam Larsson: I've been back and forth with Larsson all year, but believe this is the best place to slot him. The evidence is overwhelming now, he played against men in the SEL, played well and did it against good hockey players at the most important times in his club's season. An outstanding NHL prospect.
- L Jonathan Huberdeau: Great hands, absolutely lethal. Has that Steve Shutt '6th sense' around the net and can play center or wing. Like Couturier, owns a complete skill set with first step quickness being the only real separation between he and RNH.
- C Ryan Strome: I've spoken to a few people with connections to NHL scouts over the last week, and was surprised to find that Strome is the guy they don't (apparently) see going high in the draft. It might come down to the fact that the three forwards listed above have been credited with at least some 2-way ability and this kid is seen as one dimensional, but if he slips past #7 then he's being undervalued.
- L Gabriel Landeskog: A mature kid, nice range of skills, gritty and an outstanding puck handler. He's the first prospect on this list with an injury asterisk and it could cost him some on draft day. Along with Larsson, he's an absolute plug and play winger who won't get past Boston at number 9 but she be gone long before that point.
- C Mika Zibanejad: Reason number one why you have to pay attention to what scouting services and scouts are saying right up to draft day. Zibanejad was not ranked on Bob McKenzie's pre-season top 15, and was 19th on the McKenzie mid-season list. Now, he's the guy who is going to break up the "top 8" we've been discussing for a couple of months now. ISS loves the kid, comparing him to Jarome Iginla.
- D Ryan Murphy: Resembles RNH in that he's a unique offensive talent. Although not a complete player, Murphy's ability to impact an offense is exceptional. Great with the puck, excellent speed and the kind of puck handling ability we associate with only the best (say Zubov) offensive defenders, he'll play 20 years if he can play defense.
- D Dougie Hamilton: Anyone who watched the SCF knows the value of a big, mobile defenseman and Hamilton has a nice range of skills. ISS says he can jump into the play, win board battles and has a mean streak. Appears to be an outstanding value at #9.
- R Joel Armia: Size, speed and skill. He played last season in the SM-LIIGA and fared well. ISS compares him to Johan Franzen and says "dynamic player with excellent power elements in his game." Love the Finns.
- L Sven Bartschi: I love his skill. Bartschi would be my choice for this season's Jeff Skinner. Hard working winger with soft hands, he scored 85 points in the WHL as a rookie in that league. ISS says he's an "intelligent and determined offensive player."
- C Mark McNeill: PF with grit and skill. McNeill is one of the strongest players available in the draft, and despite being a little shy offensively (NHLE: 82g, 11-17-28) should be able to help his team's win because of his overall game. Could go anywhere in the top 20, but impressed at the combine and can play the middle.
- D Nathan Beaulieu: I have him this high because of a nice range of skills and that all important size/speed combination. Kirk Luedeke says "always looking to initiate contact and plays a rugged game. Quick stick and exhibits good gap control. An underrated, even nasty fighter." I don't know how much offense he'll bring, but can say that he'll be in the mix when the run on defenseman begins.
- C Mark Scheifele: The kid is rocketing up the charts and for good reason. Aggressive skill center who drives to the net with authority, Scheifele has a buzz about him as we enter draft week. ISS compares him to Dustin Brown.
- D Joe Morrow: Nice range of skills. I think teams should draft Joe Morrow's whenever they're available, because if a couple turn out then you're set for a generation. Wide range of skills, including solid defense, nice headman pass and a heavy shot, he's improved in leaps and bounds over the last two WHL seasons. His ranking is spotty and he could slide, making him an exceptional value.
- L Alexander Khokhlachev: Undersized skill winger with all kinds of talent. Highly skilled player, he represents high draft value for the math group. Under the radar from the saw him good group, he might slide but with no good reason.
- L Matt Puempel: Has scoring ability and that means he'll be taken early. He might be the best pure scorer in the draft, and his offensive numbers no doubt suffered because he played for a subpar Petes team.
- D Duncan Siemens: The first pure stay-at-home defender on my list, he's described as tough and dependable. He can close a gap in a heartbeat, is one of those size/speed defenders and at the WHL level he reads the play well. Siemens has been compared to Kevin Bieksa.
- D Jamie Oleksiak: 6.07, 244. Wow.
- F Zack Phillips: Can play center or wing, he's a very good offensive player with footspeed issues. He's also described as a perimter player, but the skill is going to be too good to pass over.
- R Rikard Rakell: Skilled agitator with a nice range of skills.
- C Viktor Rask: Weird year. He entered the season highly rated, struggled some and fell off the map. Has improved in the 2-way aspects of the game and may now be underrated. Center with size, turned heads at the World Junior's.
- C Daniel Catanacci: Undersized skill player with plus speed and an abiliy to agitate opposition..
- D Oscar Klefbom: Big, two-way defender. Raw skill set, ISS compares him to Ryan Whitney.
- D Jonas Brodin: Excellent skater, I have him lower than most because of size concerns (listed at 6.01, 165). He is considered a finesse defender, very intelligent and effective in positioning himself on plays.
- D David Musil: A fine defensive prospect who is rated below guys like Siemens and Oleksiak but may end up being the best player in the group of DD we're discussing.
- C Vladislav Namestnikov: Quick forward with skill. Not big or fast, he has a nice wrist shot and is an aggressive forechecker.
- L Shane Prince: Risk/reward pick, his tools aren't exceptional and he's average in size and speed. However, Prince posted 88 points in his draft year and that's a helluva number.
- R Ty Rattie: The WHL version of Prince, size/speed issues but man there's a lot of talent. Exciting player with the puck, we just don't know how much he'll have it in the NHL.
- L Brandon Saad: Big winger with speed and hands, but the results have been lagging. Still a quality prospect.
Nation Radio hits the airwaves at noon on the Team 1260. Scheduled to appear:
- Mark Lamb, coach and GM of the Swift Current Broncos. We'll talk about his Stanley Cup finals experience, his draft experience and some of the Broncos who are draft eligible.
- Scott Reynolds from Copper and Blue. Scott's been doing brilliant work lately and we'll talk about the draft, with specific attention paid to recent articles about RNH and Adam Larsson.
- Matt Bugg from Dobber Hockey. Matt is as well versed as anyone about the draft from first pick to last, and will be a wonderful resource for the Nation Radio show next weekend (he'll be live at the draft).
- Kent Simpson from Team 1260's Oil King broadcasts. We'll talk about the draft, some draft stories from his past and also look at some of the WHL's best draft eligibles.
- Jason Gregor from Team 1260 and Oilers Nation. Jason has been looking closely at the draft in the last couple of weeks, and we'll discuss what might happen and try to pry as much information as possible from him.
- Kirk Luedeke from Bruins Draft Watch. I've relied heavily on Kirk during the leadup to the draft, because he's the best and his blog is the best spot on the internet for information and commentary. One more look at the draft, and a chance to touch base on a great day for Boston.
Zibanejad is also drawing Arnott and Kesler comparisons.
ReplyDeleteIts amazing to see all the hype during draft week. Sure, enjoy it, but don't overvalue picks just because it's the news of the week (Scott Glennie anyone?)
ReplyDeleteAnything past the first tier is a crapshoot so remember these aren't actual NHL players...yet.
Gregor has a nice post on ON about Chiarelli's moves and what struck me was how he got dependable NHL players for 2nd - 7th round picks: Recchi, Paille, etc.
LT: who's at 31?
ReplyDeleteGlasgow Oil
Probably Grimaldi, although I really like Niklas Jensen too.
ReplyDeleteI find myself to agree more with this list than others.
ReplyDeleteI think Mckenzie is champion at knowing what teams will draft tough.
RLR's list is oufff.
I've got to admit, much as people talk about size, I would rather see the Oilers roll the dice on Grimaldi than take a player with a more limited upside in the name of safety.
ReplyDeleteI think the risk is easily worth the reward once you get beyond a certain point in the draft.
speeds: The worry I have over Grimaldi is offense. How much will he score?
ReplyDeleteWheather it's at the draft or throughout the summer the three things the Oil need most are:
ReplyDelete1. Size
2. Toughness
3. See #1 and #2
Has this ever been more apparent than after watching this years playoffs, in particular, the final. Is it any wonder their roster is injured every single year. Most of the lineup gets tossed around like children. This won't happen in one summer, however, but may take a couple or even 3 years. I don't care who they take first in all honesty but after that there better not be anybody under 6' 4" and 220.
From the previous thread, some interesting discussion about Gagner.
ReplyDeleteRegardless of whether or not he's moved forward in terms of development (as measured by a sun dial), there's the other obvious issue.
With the Oilers drafting RNH, Gagner will at some point be pretty redundant unless he's moved to the wing.
A 1-dimensional center who can't win draws and is weak defensively probably won't slot into #2 c on a competitive team behind RNH (when RNH makes the big team?).
Speaking of faceoffs, any scouting on RNH's ability to win draws at the WHL level?
I'm most interested this off season in seeing what the Oilers braintrust does (if anything) to bolster the D and centres.
I don't think MacKenzie will have Couturier at #3. I can give SC the benefit of the doubt for the mono but he is going to get nicked for the perceived lack of effort. And he should be nicked for his TOI. If his TOI was anything close to what the Av's scouts said, his offence needs to be discounted as if he was a London Knight.
ReplyDeleteI'd have him below RNH, Larssen, Landy, Huberdeau, and Hamilton. He could go a low as 10th on Friday.
(And yeah, I know he's big and has at least 70 pts etc.)
Oilers will take RNH for their first pick. It appears the 2012 draft is heavily weighted in D-men in the first round.
ReplyDeleteI agree on the Grimaldi thoughts. I think if he had a ton of offensive upside we would have seen more points tallied this year.
ReplyDeleteI think he will get a shot in the NHL, if he can check, but probably doesn't have much upside beyond 3rd line.
Wheather it's at the draft or throughout the summer the three things the Oil need most are:
ReplyDelete1. Size
2. Toughness
3. See #1 and #2
Has this ever been more apparent than after watching this years playoffs, in particular, the final.
I agree to some degree. You need some rugged players but here are the top 6 playoff scorers:
1 Krejci 6' 177lbs
2 Henrich 6'2" 188
3.St Louis
4. Daniel (speedbag)
5. Patrice (Headache) Bergeron
6. Marchand 5'9" 163 lbs
There is no beef there.
BOS got lots of contributions from Peverly, Kelly, Ryder and Recchi all of whom are in the 6' 195 range.
But they probably don't make the finals without some big bodies like Horton, Lucic and Chara.
Clarkstein,
ReplyDeleteYou sound like Pendergrast,
That kind of thinking led to drafting Pouliot over Parise and drafting all the coke machine busts in the last decade.
The Oilers' priority in drafting should be:
-Good hockey players
-Good hockey brain
-Good hockey players
The Oilers have size in the pipe with Hartikainen, MPS, Hall, Pitlik, and Hamilton.
If two players are even you take the bigger man, but you don't sacrifice hockey ability for size.
MBS' 2 round last year was amazing in terms of getting 3 kids with both size and hockey ability. (Pitlik, Hamilton and Marincin)
More of that please.
Ducey: When you say "perceived lack of effort" it might be widespread but not universal. Couturier has delivered in the league's he's been allowed to play in, made the WJ team and made himself useful in a secondary role and answered every bell.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it's a stretch to suggest he'll be picked in the top 3 or 4. Couturier is an outstanding prosopect.
I know its unlikely that the Oilers would pick Shane Prince, but here in Rochester (his hometown) he's seen as the second coming of Jason Bonsignore.
ReplyDeleteCouturier seems to have fallen a lot after the pucks stopped dropping.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a snowball effect.
Good points, guys, and pretty much the established meme I think on this site.
ReplyDeleteI like the sound of Rask at 19. Any comparisons being made to Lander?
ReplyDeleteED
ReplyDeleteI'd gamble that Rask will be there at 31.
I guess it all depends on the which teams start reaching for "their guys".
LT: What is the knock on Nieto?
ReplyDeleteSpeeds: Idk. That College scoring at that age. Sleeper pick right there.
ReplyDeletefor me, if Hamilton slips down to 8th I would hope that Howson would get a phone call. I think he will be good value there. Siemens has also slipped and he, morrow, klefbom or Oleksiak would be good choices for edmonton at 19. I also suspect there will be a pretty good player that slips to day 2 much like Pitlick did. Perhaps Musil.
ReplyDeleteI don't want to see Hemsky go, but Hamilton is awful appealing
word verification: cousn- person you are most likely to marry when you live in Mississippi
Lovin' the list, LT! One of the best I've read so far. I'm thinking Oleksiak goes before Siemens.
ReplyDeleteTaylor Hall tweets...
Will be attending NHL draft in Minnesota on the 24th with the Oil brass
Musil's stock seems to be rising again recently. His shot is the big concern, but Woodlief and others seem to think he will be a better shut down option than Siemens.
ReplyDeletePadism: the philosophy of bachelor life.
Good call on getting Rask in there. It's crazy how much his stock has dropped. McKenzie had him ranked 6th at one point.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's just me, but I see a drop-off at 18 if that's how the draft transpires.
ReplyDeleteHoping one of those guys in the top 18 drops
-Good hockey players
ReplyDelete-Good hockey brain
-Good hockey players
I'll add one more to this.
-Good Human Beings
PJO...
ReplyDeleteYou're probably pretty close. I think Woodlief typified this draft earlier in the year as not much difference from 20-50.
I was looking at Landeskog's splits a couple days ago, and they are kind of interesting.
ReplyDeletePre injury: 32GP 25G 20A for 45 pts, +24
Post injury: 21GP 11G 10A for 21 pts, +3
I'm not sure how much the injury has to do with that, the state of the team, luck, etc, but there's certainly a notable difference.
Luck is the one thing that bothers me in prospect rating. It might be why scouts rely as much on tools as on points. Without shooting percentage, how much can we rely on goal-scoring numbers? And even then we run into difficulties as these kids are in the midst of developing and have no baseline.
ReplyDeleteSpoiler: Tools can be misleading too. As much as numbers.
ReplyDeleteA lot of guys will look like they have them, but with 2 cents heads, getting nothing.
4 points under is the ''mendonza line''. Idk why but it seems at 3-2-1 the odds seem to increase vastly.
So even if you're the unluckiest player in the world, to be a scorer in the NHL, -3 under your Game total is the max you can go.
test
ReplyDeleteLT
ReplyDeleteListened to your show and loved how you asked Scott, Simpson and Bugg about Siemens . interesting you forgot to ask Luedeke. All three said they thought he was overrated at top ten...and if you were to read Luedeke, I think he has him ranked around 32.
So if all four of these guys think Siemens is better value 15-25 i sure hope the oilers brass doesn't waste a 2nd and third on top of 19 to get him when whomever is there at 19 maybe better.
10-20 seems so fluid and close I don't see why bother moving up unless you get top 8 is worth it.
Siemens seems a lot like Teubert and Plante to me. Not sure why they would pick him at all.
especialy when Musil may be there at 31. I'm hoping they just take a forward at 19.
ReplyDeleteoilersfan: I think the Oilers might look at it differently, as in "we wanted to trade up for McIlrath and NYR got him" kind of way.
ReplyDeletewoodguy
ReplyDeletei was reading your posts in the other thread. Two comments:
1) For all the love for Yakopov he was almost old enough to be drafted this year. He may not improve that much next year, like Hall but smaller, and Russian. Maybe he would balk at coming here?
2) Maybe the upside to trading next year's pick plus 19 for Larsson is maybe that means they will start trying to win now? Leave RNH and Larsson where they are and chase Reasoner/Brewer/Ponirovsky/upshall and re-sign Hemsky.
LT then they are as dumb as we fear they are.
ReplyDeleteFrankly, I think Matheson makes a lot of stuff up, and for a guy who was watched a lot of hockey and mediopcre dmen drafted high I don't think he is that bright.
FPB: that's likely why they take a balanced approach, as I pointed out. And as there are a limited number of players above the line you mentioned (and other leagues come into play), from the point of view of the whole draft how relevant can that criterion be?
ReplyDeleteYou are also thinking far too cut and dried about what is essentially a population described by a bell curve. Hard and fast rules thus cannot apply, which is why scouts often describe prospects by tiers and ranges.
LT, didn't they fill that desire for McIlrath with the trade for Teubert?
ReplyDeleteI don't think so; imo the key to the Penner deal was the first rd pick, with Teubert taking the role they wanted Alex Plante to fill (even strength D, enforcer).
ReplyDeleteI think they saw McIlrath (and see Siemens) as a big minutes option. I used Scott Stevens as an example today, but Bieksa is a better modern day example imo.
The Oilers are looking for a defender who can play heavy minutes against tough opponents and PK.
I don't think that's going to be Teubert.
well considering Musil beat Siemens up pretty well at the top prosects game, was was ranked as high if not higher than Siemens one year ago, and you are drafting someone for ten years...seems to me they are just as well off to take Musil at 31 than Siemens at 12 or whatever. I would rather have say Schiefele or Puempel at 19 and Musil at 31 than trade them both for Siemens at 12.
ReplyDeleteSiemens to me is more like Teubert (and Plante) than you are saying LT, although the Oilers brass seems to agree with you I think they are wrong.
Didn't drafting Plante and watching Teubert develop by sundial teach these idiots not to use such a high pick on one of these guys?
I am probably preaching to the choir here but it is maddening to see the two top teams in the SCF with one first round pick (Hamhuis) playing in the entire serires, with one top 5 pick Dman a healthy scratch with a 4 million dollar albatross contract.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile guys like Seideberg, Chara, Bieksa, Ehrhoff, Boychuk, McQuaid etc were drafted after the third round, shows you pro scouting is just as important as amateur scouting and this is the area the Oilers are painfully weak in.
my point being don't move a bunch of picks to get Siemens who may not be as good as one of the third rounders drafted this or next year!
ReplyDeleteclearly I meant first round dman pick
ReplyDeletesorry for hogging the comments, no more for awhile from me
oilersfan: I'm not saying that Siemens is worth a top 10, just suggesting what the Oilers may be thinking.
ReplyDeleteI would pick Siemens at number 18, as suggested by my top 30. I wouldn't trade up to get him, since I prefer 17 players before him.
Oilersfan: Coming over here? Yakupov is playing in Sarnia....
ReplyDeleteSpoiler: That's why I call it the Mendoza line. It's the absolute line where, even if all things go wrong guys seem to fail anyway. Past that, mathematically anyone can succeed.
Well at least, if you intent to draft guys who are going to be in your top 6. What would be the equivalency to Swedish/Finnish Junior? I think it would translate well.
We filled the desire for Mcilrath by him sucking. He regressed in every category possible, and wasn't a really good prospect. Reach pick.
LT... Will Siemens have that much offense? Stevens pounded in a lot of points over his career, not just heads.
ReplyDeleteSome scouts on Siemens:
"Siemens gets a lot of his points from secondary assists and skating with Stef Elliott. I don't see the same kind of vision or creativity from him that I do from Morrow. I know this will come as a surprise to a lot of people, but I think Siemens is overrated when people are talking top-10 for him. He's going to be a solid middle-pairing guy, but if you want real upside from the defense position,"
"Siemens got exposed a bit both in the win over Prince Albert, but especially against Kootenay," said an NHL director of amateur scouting recently. "When his team needed him to step up his game, he made a lot of mistakes and didn't look settled the way he did in the regular season. That isn't going to crush him at the draft, but it is something teams are going to talk about."
"I just don't see much upside with this guy <...> He'll fight, but he doesn't relish it the way (Dylan) McIlrath does. He's a good skater and passer, but he can't seem to translate those skills into production. I see a middle-of-the road NHL defenseman who will log you some minutes, but isn't going to be a top-pairing guy or someone who is going to give a team that extra dimension on offense everyone is looking for."
All that said though, there's some buzz around the Oil and Siemens. With the limited upside though, and an identical player in the system in Teubert, it seems silly to trade up for a middle pairing prospect. And they could always take Musil or Mayfield instead, if they're that hot for a shutdown minutes eater.
I'd have a tough time justifying moving up for such a player and one would hope McIlrath's year would be a warning to everyone.
FPB: that's the point. If you think it is an absolute you're not grasping basic math. It's quality of absoluteness rests merely in your portrayal of the data.
ReplyDeleteI'll qualify a little further: what you have is a useful rule of thumb, not an absolute rule or law. Thus it is not pre-eminent beyond all other considerations.
ReplyDeleteFor the Russian pumpers out there. David Conte's caution signs on Oiler's Lunch this week is a MUST listen.
ReplyDeleteLT: I see you disagree with the Oil too and would wait and see if he fell to 19. I would consider him in that spot, but would have a tough time passing on McNeill, Oleksiak, Brodin or Puempel if they're there too.
ReplyDeleteSpoiler: It's NOT an absolute rule. But it's a point where the rate of success is so low it becomes a crapshoot.
ReplyDeleteIt's Bellcurve indeed, and it falls way off at that point.
As for Siemens, I'd Pick Oleksiak, Hamilton over him. I wouldn't for Musil/Morrow. He's not that good, but he gets the edge because of his youth.
spOILer: Yeah, I mean tbe veteran Stevens who didn't have a lot of offense. Clearly Siemens is a stay at home type, so he won't be delivering like Stevens did as a young man.
ReplyDeleteI didn't think anyone would remember Stevens as a young player.
Al MacInnis 18 59 25 50 75
ReplyDeleteScott Stevens 17 68 6 36 42 158
Stefan Elliott 19 71 31 50 81
Duncan Siemens 16 72 5 38 43
Pretty darn similar.
Hmm. I didn't realize they were that close. Interesting.
ReplyDeleteLT
ReplyDeleteReason people forgot how much Stevens scored early is for last # of years NJD had Niedemeyer and Rafalski and SS focused on being a destroyer of worlds.
From J Willis report on ON it looks like it is tough to move up 8-10 spots as is called for for Oil to get a second top 10 pick. Not sure LA's pick and 31 gets it done.
I am not a fan of patience in rebuild but we would have to be crazy to trade next years #1 unless you thought whoever we got was an absolute stud. Whitney may??? have chronic foot problems, the Oiler blogosphere believes Hemsky has chronic injury problems and we have a very thin and very very young roster behind those 2 guys. Well unless Jones has a 45% shooting % and scores 40. Top 5 (actually the BOTTOM 5) is not a stretch.
Do not understand advanced metrics like many here but why would the Oil want Zenon Konopka if he is mediocre at "math"? Why would NYI not want him? Did we not just do this with Colin Fraser? Course NYI management are morons and the Oiler brass are........... Never mind
The Other John: He can't score, he can't play, he can't PK.
ReplyDeleteHe's like Macintyre but can win a draw.
ya but Scott Stevens didn't get the tar beat out of him by anybody ,let alone Frank Musil or the equivalent.
ReplyDeleteTeubert has been compared to SS too.
Hell I would be thrilled if he was just Regehr.
nice to see we mostly agree that Siemens is overrated. Isn't there a Blades fan on this forum who watched him play every night? WOuld love to hear him chime in.
I'm not saying Siemens is overrated, hell I've got him in the first round.
ReplyDeleteI think he'll be a good NHL player, but don't know how much offense he's going to bring.
It's funny. Last year Gudbranson had the same size, less production, and was injured, and that's what you got at N3.
ReplyDeleteNow we think Siemens is going to go in the 20 range.
Draft for the ages.
Siemens got 5 goals in his draft year, he is projected by many to go in the top 12, and this is a draft for the ages?
ReplyDeleteAre you being sarcastic?
Just because Gudbranson went 5 spots too soon it doesn't mean Siemens will be a great pick at 12. PLante had 38 points in his draft year and he ain't no Scott Stevens.
Oilersfan: Find me that last draft where you could potentially snap a 100 points not undersized player at 7-8.
ReplyDeleteAll I'm saying is the general quality is way better.
Alex Plante had 4 points in his previous season. Not comparable.
fpb
ReplyDeletethe fact that Konopka can win draws makes him a better penalty killer than anybody the Oilers have.
NYI were midpack in penalty kill and Konopka killed penalties.How is he not a fit for Edmonton?
Hockeyguy:
ReplyDeleteBecause he's inapt to play defense?
10.60 GA/ON60.
He blew more than 33% of his PK assignements.
O'Marra, Fraser, Cogliano and Jones were all 3-4 Goals per 60 under him.
He's BAD.
so because Plante had less points in his 15-16 year old season he is not as good as Siemens who had 20 points when he was 15-16? But when they had the same points as 16-17 years olds the year before is what matters?
ReplyDeleteDo you just like to make up your points as you go along?
Siemens played with a guy who got 81 points. Did you know Charlie Huddy got 57 points one year? Guess what, he passed the puck in his own zone to Paul Coffey who brought it up the ice and passed to Gretzky or Kurri, but Huddy was not an elite offensive players like that 57 points suggests. I think given Siemens' production should be taken with a big grain of salt.
Teubert was drafted first overall from the Bantam draft, Siemens wasn't, I guess that makes Teubert a better prospect.
Not sure if anyone else has ever posted on this because we always talk about their junior numbers, but in RNH's 15-16 year olds season , his first as an underager in Midget, he got 40 goals, 47 assists for 87 points in 37 games.
ReplyDeleteHis last year of Bantam, the year he was picked first overall by teh Rebels in the WHL bantam draft, when he was 14, he scored 109 goals and 92 assists for 207 points in 61 games. So the assist to goal ratio is looking very good from his younger years.Not bad eh? 207 points in 61 games against the best at his age group in the Vancouver area..
The article from 2008 in the REd Deer Advocate is here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.albertalocalnews.com/reddeeradvocate/sports/Rebels_No_1_pick_has_it_all.html
I know this is lost in the thread, but we're all aware that Siemens will be drafted for his defensive ability (real or imagined), right?
ReplyDeleteYes LT, which is why he should be around $35 like Luedeke says, imo
ReplyDelete#35
ReplyDeleteClearly, we disagree. You've posted at length on it, I think we're going to have to move on.
ReplyDeleteFair?
Fine with me, I actually think this whole Siemens thing isn't in the cards anyway, Stauffer keeps hintint he expects the Oilers to draft another forward anyway with #19.
ReplyDeleteLT, have you heard anything about Seth Ambrose in your show or other discussions? i read somewhere last week he is now projected to be a third rounder, which is where a potential power forward with some skill should be picked.
Also, I love your #30 pick Saad, he may be a good #31 for the Oilers.
I know he's big and ISS says scouts were disappointed with his progress. That's about all, but of course he'll be drafted with his size.
ReplyDeleteYou don't draft 5% with your N31.
ReplyDeleteInstead you wait up for Ambroz.
Oilersfan: I'm not ''making point along the way''.
Track record is good to see if a player could provide offense in earlier situations. Elliott a year earlier played with Sam Classen, and Duncan still provided some offense.
Unless you did some research and compared trough the ages, we'd settle here.
Tall defensemen with 40 points and shutdown ability usuallly get drafted in the 10-25
range.
Seabrook, Plante, Burns etc are all exemples of this.
Fpb is right about Konopka.
ReplyDeleteNYI had a decent PK last year (something like 5th in the league)
NYI 4v5 Forwards 40gp+, 1min/60+ 4v5:
GAON/60
Grabner 3.61
Bailey 4.78
Comeau 4.90
Nielsen 5.44
Konopka 10.60
One of these things is not like the other.....
If you look at the game sheet from the last 20 games he didn't PK, they took him off the PK at some point.
5v5
CorQC 8/10
CorQT 10/10
RelCor 10/10 (-23.5, 2nd worst on team was Matt Martin -18.1, 3rd Jesse Joensuu -7.6)
He may have been the worst player in the NHL to take a regular shift.
If Zorg could take a draw he'd be a huge upgrade on Konopka.
Wouldn't it be just like the Oilers to say "We need a face off man!!", the go get the worst hockey player possible?
Gregor was pushing Konopka at $1MM/yr for 3 years.
Lordy.
Konopka is 30 and hasn't played 3 full seasons in the NHL.
Career AHLer and not a very good one.
FPB said...
ReplyDeleteSpoiler:That's why I call it the Mendoza line. It's the absolute line where, even if all things go wrong guys seem to fail anyway. Past that, mathematically anyone can succeed.
FPB said...
Spoiler: It's NOT an absolute rule. But it's a point where the rate of success is so low it becomes a crapshoot.
(Emphasis added in both cases)
I can't put my finger on it, but there seems to be some lack of consistency here.
Spoiler: Well my bad. It's not absolute. But the success percentage is ridiculously low. At that point it's just playing with fire. Pretty much every team burned themselves on that, and no one stood out of the pack for drafting guys like these.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely love this blog for analysis!!
ReplyDeleteKnew Konopka was not good at what we are, supposedly, signing him for and ....... Get lots of particulars as to what he can't do. With that in hand I expect we will sign him for 3 years at $4+m and at the end of Christmas first year Stauffer and Gregor will say: Geez who knew??
That is how we got Khabubulin and Colin Fraser
LT if you look at the Oil Kings playoff series, RNH was playing against players about his own size or smaller. But in the MH Tigers series he got his butt handed to him by players that were bigger and stronger. He experienced what most of the light weight Oilers experienced most nights. If anything the MH Tigers series showed every reason why not to draft RNH. The Oilers need size and grit, not speed and someone who can handle the puck.
ReplyDelete