RNH: "Edmonton was the first team to interview me (on Wednesday), and it went really well. I got a good feeling from them and I'm starting to feel more comfortable around them now because I've had a couple of interviews with them, so it's been going pretty well. I'm looking forward to draft day."
Entire article here.
The RNH to Edmonton has more angles than a polygon. speeds wrote a terrific item recently and I don't know many who believe the Oilers won't take the latest phenom from Burnaby.
His comparables (in style) range from Matt Duchene through Niklas Backstrom. ISS says he's an instinctive and dynamic playmaker with legendary vision and set up skills. He's listed as 6.00, 170 and pretty much everyone agrees the Oilers would be wise to leave him in junior for another year.
I think it's a crapshoot. Ten years from now, the best player in this draft might be RNH, or Larsson, or Landeskog, or Huberdeau or Couturier. Hell, it COULD be Mika Zibanejad.
The back story tells so well and the skill set sounds like a dream. I'm not certain Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the best player available, but I don't know that he isn't either. If MBS likes another better, so be it. However, these long days from the entry draft everything points to a match made in heaven.
Boys on the Bus 2.0 meets Gretzky redux. It writes itself.
--
- NHL Central Scouting’s B.J. MacDonald: “(Nugent-Hopkins) has very good puck-handling capabilities. His on-ice awareness is very good. He's one of those guys that knows where everyone is and where they should be and where the puck should go . . . He can dish both right or left, either on his backhand or forehand with that kind of vision. But not just the vision, but the fact he can lay that puck between the skate boot and the skate blade -- that's hard to find.”
- NHL Central Scouting’s Peter Sullivan: “A couple of people high up -- and not naming names -- said Hopkins has the best vision since No. 99 (Wayne Gretzky). That's the highest compliment you can get. But the other thing is the way he competes. He never takes a night off and he works as hard in his own end as he does in the offensive zone and that takes a special player with a special set of skills to do that.”
Gretzky redux? You have a runaway train to hyperbole :)
ReplyDeleteIf RNH is Gretzky, does that make Taylor Hall, Blair MacDonald?
ReplyDeleteGretzky?
ReplyDeleteRNH isn't even the best player in a weak draft year.
Really?
That's what I keep hearing.
ReplyDeleteI bet this would be a stronger draft year if the Nucks were picking high up so they could get another stud like Shirokov.
ReplyDeleteAgain who knows, most people pick and choose depending which article appeals to them. Most people have never seen the top 8 play. So they rely on articles. To have a strong opinion based on an article is really a tribute to the writer/author.
ReplyDeleteBlogger PDO said...
ReplyDeleteI bet this would be a stronger draft year if the Nucks were picking high up so they could get another stud like Shirokov.
Nah.
It would be a weak draft year no matter what.
Despite my attempt to piss in DSF's cereal, I do agree this is a weak draft.
ReplyDeleteThe tell tale sign?
The Oilers are loading up with draft picks.
2004.
2007.
2011.
I think the best comp in terms of playing style is Pat Kane.
ReplyDeleteAt least offensively.
Obviously RNH center and is more dedicated on the defensive side of the puck but I think he plays the same style offensively and ask yourself how often Pat Kane gets hit?
RNH will be in the NHL next year.
Traktor:
ReplyDeleteIs he that fast?
PDO:
ReplyDeleteHe's that fast and he knows what the defense are going to do before the defense even know what they're going to do.
I want some boxcars!!!
ReplyDeleteBest of luck to whomever gets picked first. There is no way that this #1 meets the expectations that last #1 set up in fans' minds.
bedduc - a tired quacker
Nice story about the fact the Oilers have not chosen anyone yet. Stu is saying a lot of good things (IMHO).
ReplyDeletehttp://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/hockey-world/Edmonton+Oilers+first+draft+pick+still+unknown/4874594/story.html
Traktor, just to know where you're coming from, upon what grounds do you base your opinion? Do you watch him frequently, either live or on tape? Do you reciprocate the respected opinions of those who do? A mixture?
ReplyDeleteI ask because I've long been wondering how fast Nugent-Hopkins is. You always hear about how quick he is, especially in regards to lateral agility, but the question of how fast he is rarely comes up. How would you answer the question, based on your experience?
I'm happy to hear that Edmonton is more than willing to consider going with a F at 1 and at 19, I think that's the better bet for long term value and that aside, from reading other scouting projections and mock drafts, it could be the case that the BPA at both slots are F's, so I'd much rather see them go with that than force a D selection to fill a need.
ReplyDeleteCan we not all agree that Whitney is a future C or at least a well respected A on this team? Anyone that talks a serious line of smack on the Canucks is a friend of mine. At this point I'd give him keys to the company car. 90% of hockey players agree...
ReplyDeleteI've stayed on the RNH train all year and I ain't switching now. Pat Kane's a worthy comp but I still like Sakic. Shifty, cerebral, playmaker, C, could stand to shoot more. Oh, and something about Burnaby...
ReplyDeleteNow, if we can convince the other 17 teams between our two picks to somehow overlook Joel Armia, I'd be over the moon. That said, he'd be the perfect poster boy for the new Winnipegs.
think it's a crapshoot. Ten years from now, the best player in this draft might be RNH, or Larsson, or Landeskog, or Huberdeau or Couturier. Hell, it COULD be Mika Zibanejad.
ReplyDeleteI'll take Sven Bartschi for the darkhorse pool!
DG: Exept the city I don't know how exactly they're related.
ReplyDeleteSakic scored like mad in junior, potted 60 goals, and had one of the best wrist shots in the history of the NHL.
RNH struggled to pot 30 goals.
I think Forsberg would be more accurate. (And his ceiling ultimately)
Out of the top 50 Forward scorers this year in the NHL, these were the players with G/PTS ratio under ,35 (Fun fact, some CHL goal scorers became passers in the NHL, (Giroux), and some opposite (Ryan))
ReplyDeleteIf insufficient data was provided, it was bumped to the after draft year.
N 3 Perry
N 9 Zetterberg
N 10 Richards
N 15 Kesler
N 23 Ribeiro
N 24 Thornton
N 42 Havlat
N 43 King Mcarthur
N 47 Krejci
Twenty years of WHL forwards taken top 5...
ReplyDelete2010 - Johansen / Niederreiter
2009 - Evander Kane
2008 - none
2007 - Kyle Turris
2006 - none
2005 - none
2004 - Andrew Ladd
2003 - none
2002 - none
2001 - none
2000 - none
1999 - Pavel Bredl
1998 - none
1997 - Patrick Marleau
1996 - none
1995 - none
1994 - none
1993 - Rob Niedermayer
1992 - none
1991 - Pat Faloon
If it makes you feel better the list looks even worse if you expand it to the top 10 picks. But of course it's all different this time with RNH - just ignore history, ignore his numbers - and focus on how much he looks like Gretzky if you stare really really hard.
RNH might only be as good as Forsberg? Damn it. Might as well trade the pick.
ReplyDeleteTurris didn't play in the WHL.He played in the BC jr. league.Big difference in quality.
ReplyDeleteIf RNH turns into another Foppa that'd be just fine.
ReplyDeleteSpeeds article was very good. Not sure how the WHL would react to EDM exerting that kind of influence, but it would be nice to see the Oilers really taking the proper steps throughout the org to ensure that players develop.
I got sort of tired of some of the anti-WHL rhetoric around here so I took a quick breeze on hockey-reference.com and noticed something interesting.
ReplyDeleteI looked at the list of top active players by career points who were still playing at the end of this season. This list includes:
1. Mark Recchi 1533
2. Mike Modano 1374
3. Teemu Selanne 1340
4. Nicklas Lidstrom 1108
5. Doug Weight 1033
6. Alex Kovalev 1024
7. Daniel Alfredsson 1023
8. Jarome Iginla 1006
9. Joe Thornton 1001
10. Ray Whitney 926
11. Jason Arnott 904
12. Peter Forsberg 885
13. Marian Hossa 827
14. Patrik Elias 816
15. Vincent Lecavalier 793
16. Martin St. Louis 778
17. Patrick Marleau 766
18. Ryan Smyth 760
19. Milan Hejduk 757
20. Shane Doan 738
Saku Koivu 738
I subtract Forsberg from this analysis because I don't think he should be considered active this past season.
Of these 20 players, 7 of them played in the WHL. That's 35%. They are:
1. Mark Recchi 1533
2. Mike Modano 1374
8. Jarome Iginla 1006
10. Ray Whitney 926
17. Patrick Marleau 766
18. Ryan Smyth 760
20. Shane Doan 738
Modano of course went 1st overall in his year. Marleau went 2nd. Iginla went 11th, but I would bet that the consensus even a year after his draft would be that he should have gone higher.
Conclusion: It's not a bad list. I would further suggest that the WHL is at least just as capable of producing impact NHLers as the other CHL leagues.
The possibility remains that there is a bias in scouting coverage against WHL teams, just as there is a bias in league and media coverage of the western conference NHL teams. It might be something to look at in more detail.
bectryte
No, it makes Taylor Hall the next Mark Messier (which I have been saying since he was 16 years old playing for Windsor! Hopkins will be a gem, but he HAS TO BE playing with someone like Hall (and Eberle) to MAXIMIZE his talent.
ReplyDeleteHis "main" job will be to simply dish the puck off to those wingers to get the goals. Remember a player by the name of Adam Oates? Would he have been so great (one of the greatest play-making centermen of all time) if he hadn't played with Brett Hull? No, of course not! You need that combination of set-up man and sniper.
Let's put it this way. Buy Hall's 3rd year in the NHL he should be able to score 40 goals (playing with Hopkins) with his eyes closed! It just makes so much sense. There is a very REAL chance you could see both Hall AND Eberle become 40-50 goal scorers playing with Hopkins. Hopkins could in turn become a consistent 100 point man. He might even become better than one of my favourites of all time (Doug Weight). How can you pass that up? Nothing is guaranteed, especially when you are dealing with an 18 year old, but there are times where you have to take a calculated risk and go for it! We can address the defenceman need via a trade.
Dispense with the Gretzky comparisons. The kid is over-sold as it is. He is no: Forsberg, Sakic, or Datsuyk.
ReplyDeleteHe is a great playmaker, with decent speed and a shot he doesn't use nearly enough. He will never be able to physically dominate like Foppa, he will never score like Sakic or Datsuyk, IMO. Potting 30 goals in the WHL MIGHT get you 15 in the NHL. If you don't score 45-50 goals in the WHL, you're not getting 30 in the NHL.
I have trouble believing he'll be more than a 60 point power play specialist. And it will take years for him to become that. For him to become even THAT, he's going to have to beat the odds. Even great players only produce a fraction of the points they did in junior. And history favors the goal scorers.
The WHL produces some fine talent, but skill centers are not their strong suit. Power Forwards, Defencemen, Goalies, Two-Way players, sure. But it seems like every team has a smallish guy on the top line that scores most of the points, but never gets past that league. I think RNH WILL be a decent player. But I don't use my first pick on him. High risk and not enough reward.
A lot of emphasis has been placed on the Oilers drafting the right people. However, good draft picks don't automatically turn into NHL stars. They need to DEVELOP into them. All of the top 8 in this draft have incredible hockey skills and a ton of potential, however few if any of them are ready to be a dominant force in the NHL next year. Perhaps more emphasis needs to be placed not on WHO the Oilers draft, but rather HOW they develop him.
ReplyDeleteIt remains within the realm of possibility that the Oilers could select the best available pick at the draft, but not end up with the best player in 5 years. You can squander talent by holding them back too long or throwing them to the sharks too early. You can help develop young, skilled players with the right role models and coaches. We all know the kid in high school that was a genius but just couldn't make the next step once he went off to college because booze / girls / family / personality / bad luck just got in the way.
If the top 5 in this draft are really that close, maybe it doesn't matter as much who the Oilers pick, so much as it matters how they develop the player they end up picking.
A question occurred to me last night:
ReplyDeleteHow is it that the Flames and Rangers were able to make the Erixon trade this week when we're well past the trade deadline and the playoffs aren't over yet?
Does the ban only apply to trading active players?
Gregor has a piece over at ON about the Nuge. He says Nuge finished the season at 168 lbs and came to the combine at 177.
ReplyDeleteNot hard to see him at ~190lbs for Sept 2012 - when he will presumably be ready for NHL action.
He apparently did 8 reps with 150lbs in the bench press this week too. Not sure where this puts his vs other prospect past and present.
On quick search I can't find the combine results from past combines. Did note that the average number of 150lb reps last year was 10.7.
ReplyDeletethink it's a crapshoot. Ten years from now, the best player in this draft might be RNH, or Larsson, or Landeskog, or Huberdeau or Couturier. Hell, it COULD be Mika Zibanejad.
ReplyDeleteBrett ritchie!
Sakic scored like mad in junior, potted 60 goals, and had one of the best wrist shots in the history of the NHL.
ReplyDeleteRNH struggled to pot 30 goals.
FPB: A little context, please. In 1986-87 WHL teams averaged 4.95 goals per game, in 2010-11 that was down to 3.38, a reduction of very nearly a third.
Sakic played on a team (coached by Graham James, yuck) that allowed 393 goals. RNH's team allowed 159 goals. Do you think that possibly there might perhaps maybe have been a tad different style of play between the two clubs?
Sakic scored like mad in junior, potted 60 goals, and had one of the best wrist shots in the history of the NHL.
ReplyDeleteRNH struggled to pot 30 goals.
FPB: A little context, please. In 1986-87 WHL teams averaged 4.95 goals per game, in 2010-11 that was down to 3.38, a reduction of very nearly a third.
RNH and his 106 points finished third in league scoring, 10 points behind the leader (Linden Vey). Sakic finished fourth, 79 (!) points behind the leader (Rob Brown).
Sakic played on a team (coached by Graham James, yuck) that allowed 393 goals. RNH's team allowed 159 goals. Do you think that possibly there might perhaps maybe have been a tad different style of play between the two clubs?
Project RNH's points into a league that scored at the rate of the WHL in Joe Sakic's 17-year-old season and you get boxcars of 45-110-155.
ReplyDeleteSakic himself got 60-73-133.
To which there are two obvious conclusions (choose one):
1) Holy crap! RNH is better than Joe Sakic!
2) Holy crap! RNH isn't even as good as Rob F. Brown! Not even close!!
Whichever side of the fence you're on, one or the other should nicely match your existing Opinion.
PS: By the numbers, Robbie Brown WAS Gretzky redux, leading the league in goals (by a little)in assists (by a lot), and in points (by a whole lot). Didn't quite translate in the end.
ReplyDeleteBruce: You act like I dissed him then I compared him to Forsberg FFS.
ReplyDeleteJust that Sakic's best asset was his wrist shot by far, and that doesn't look like RNH.
As for the ''Style'' of Red Deer, I did run something on all the teams and it happened Red Deer, allowed just as much shots, even more than others of the main forwards (St-John, Drumondville)
They just happened to have that ,933 save% goalie.
@bruce
ReplyDeleteHe pro career got off to a pretty good start with Pittsburgh.I can't remember why they traded him at he time.
FPB: Where did I say that you dissed him? I just said the difference between his 31 goals to Sakic's 60 was in part due to era effects, which I attempted to quantify. Comparing stats from the '80s to the Dead Puck Era is virtually meaningless if you don't do this.
ReplyDeleteI don't think he's very much like Forsberg at all. Wish he was. Foppa's game was predicated on strength, RNH's more on slipperiness. Both guys highly skilled, I'll grant you that. But different modus operandi.
Brett ritchie!
ReplyDeleteI hope that was a joke. After you lost your marbles a few days ago, its hard to tell.
He might be a good player, but with 21 20 41 in 49 games it doesn't scream the best player from this draft.
Guys who lack -5 points under theyr GP, have historically been very bad, to awful first round choices.
ReplyDelete2nd or 3rd round for Brett.
While checking out Sarnia:
ReplyDeleteNail Yakupov
49 G 52 A 101 PTS as 16 years old. Damn
If there is no clear cut Number one, does that make a stronger case to draft for need? Particularly if they're planning on another Top 5 pick the year after?
ReplyDeleteThe Oil need a stud defenseman and a skilled center with size. RNH is neither so an argument for him is the classic bpa argument.
I think it's feasible for this org to say at some point. Small forwards? Check. Now, let's move on to other needs. Drafting RNH is essentially giving up on Gagner and there seems to be a tad bit of going backwards in that approach to building out the roster.
Thank god this mindset about passing on blue chip D didn't exist when Paul Coffey was being drafted. Salary Cap, apples and oranges, etc. I know! But at some point this team needs to grow its own cornerstone on the backline. And for selfish reasons, I would personally enjoy watching a great d-man being groomed for a change over yet another forward prospect.
Ducey (and everyone else!):
ReplyDeleteCombine results are coming in:
http://centralscouting.nhl.com/link3/cs/public-home.nsf/page?readform&app=combine
Nugent Hopkins did 28 push ups. They also have a category listed called push-ups*body weight, I guess to measure the total weight moved during pushups, for RNH that was 4794 lbs.
This lets us back out RNH's weight, which I'm pretty sure they measure this morning as a part of the fitness testing/medicals, which according to these calculations was 171.2 lbs.
Lee
ReplyDeleteThere is a clear cut number one pick at this stage. Every scouting service has RNH at number one. The majority of scouts that TSN talked to had RNH at number one. And Gregor posted today on ON:
"Over the past month I've had the chance to interview over 15 different independent scouts and NHL scouts, and all but one of them said if they had the first pick they would take Nugent-Hopkins. The one who didn't chose him opted to not give an answer."
Choosing anyone other than RNH would be going against the clear cut majority opinion of the people who making a living assessing which 18 year olds will make the best NHL players.
Marc: Yeah those guys with no real prerequisite.
ReplyDeleteOnly scouts with good track records matter. (Altough in the 15, they may be 3-5)
Zack Phillips seems to be the most ''in shape'' player. V20 Test to the max.
ReplyDeleteIf Oleksiak can be in the top of that test, it would suggest his 240 are pure muscle. Damn.
(One of the lowest body fat % a natural 240 pounds... at 17)
He's definitely this year's ''Mr. Upside''
Seems that Mark Mcneill is the strongest (physically) player in the draft (with Oleksiak). Pretty surprising for his size.
ReplyDelete5''6 Rocco Grimaldi popping up in most of the tops. Funny.
ReplyDelete@Marc
ReplyDeleteI'm tempted to ask if these 15 are the same 15 that let Eberle slide to 22 or Parise to 17th but that's a facetious argument.
Your point is well taken. If he's MBS' pick, I sincerely hope he is the 2nd coming of Datsyuk because if not, they're repeating the mistakes of their past drafting more talented smurfs whilst ignorig obvious needs elsewhere.
fpb
ReplyDeleteIt seems that all the prospects have not been tested yet. RNH, Oleksiak and McNeil seem to show up in all the tests and there is no mention of Strome, Huburdeau, Courutier etc.
It looks like RNH did 6 bench presses at 150 lbs.
WHL does have a tough time producing high scoring centers. You can look at this in a couple of ways.
ReplyDeleteThe WHL produces world class defensemen. The league is also full of farm boys that weigh 200+ pounds and from pee wee on those skill kids get pounded on by big dmen and checking forwards.
So these guys are either damaged goods that stick to the perimeter and rack up their junior points that way. Or they do go to the hard parts of the ice and have success. Those ones tend to be pretty special. (and they are few and far between)
I knew Eberle was a special one as he did go to the hard parts of the ice. (Where you actually score goals) He is also one of those guys that should look great by Rikki's metrics.
I've seen the Rebels play some stinkers where the Blades absolutely beat the shit out of RNH's line and he still came off to me as a gamer. I've seen him good and bad and I think he has what it takes.
Every scouting service has RNH at number one.
ReplyDeleteWell, except for The Hockey Symposium. :D
Recommended reading, btw. speeds knows his stuff. (But you knew that already.)
Hilarious
ReplyDeleteGregor is reported to have said RNH came to combine at 177lbs and he weighs (on the scale) at 171.2 lbs. That puts him 3.2 lbs over the weight he started the WHL season.
He may not make 180 lbs in Sept of 2012.
Gregor also reputed to report 8 BP of 150lbs. He does 6. A mere exaggeration of 33%.
If, as Ducey reports, the combine average BP last year was 10.7 RNH did 56% of last years average and has had 6-8 weeks to get ready for the combine.
The purpose of the combine is to get objective #'s not what someone's agent says he weighs. In NBA combine they are actually measured in socks and in shoes for that very purpose
I'm tempted to ask if these 15 are the same 15 that let Eberle slide to 22 or Parise to 17th but that's a facetious argument.
ReplyDeleteNot so much facetious as it is invalid. There is a major difference between the scouting services underrating players in the 10-60 slots than the #1 overall.
Your point is well taken. If he's MBS' pick, I sincerely hope he is the 2nd coming of Datsyuk because if not, they're repeating the mistakes of their past drafting more talented smurfs whilst ignorig obvious needs elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteBPA.
Lets say the Oilers take RNH. That gives them another smurph, sure.
But he will play another year in junior while the Oilers sort thru Gagner, Omark, Eberle, Hemsky, Brule, Cogs etc. They also will be introducing Lander, Teemu, Hamilton, Pitlick etc into NA pro hockey.
In 2012-13 he is going to be a rookie and you would think he would be doing real well to get 50 pts. Its unlikely the Oilers are going to be playing for a Cup, to say the least.
So by the time it matters in Nuges second year (2013-14) the Oilers are likely going to look a lot different.
If they are able to bring in or develop a big #2 C, they could have RNH, #2, Horcoff, Lander, VDV, House etc. They can throw Gagner on the wing too.
All Oilers fans should have learned the lessons of what happens when scouts worry too much about size (Bonsignore, Pouliot) or skating (Steve Kelly among others).
Just take the best hockey player. Roster management will work itself out in good time.
Speeds
ReplyDeleteThe thing that surprises me about your preliminary list is how far down you have Schiefle, McNeil and Siemens. If you are right the Oil would have a shot at two of those players which would be great.
Bruce commented that you are a bit of an island alone with respect to Couterier and I think Lowetide agrees with you. would love to know what David Conti thinks of your SC/RNH placing. Expect NJD are going to be very very happy with whoever they pick
RNH should probably go back to Junior.
ReplyDeleteBut I'm pretty damn sure the Oil won't send him back.
TOJ:
ReplyDeleteOf the three, I think I have McNeill lower than he should be - I think he's a better prospect than Scheifele, but he's close. I should probably edit the list (it's simply an oversight that he's below Scheifele right now, I went through a number of versions of the list and must not have noticed that), but I'll leave it as is for now, not worrying about it too much because I'll have a final list later.
Siemens is so young (a week and half younger and he'd be in the 2012 draft) that I think once could make a good argument I have him too low. He may move up a bit, but I doubt he'll crack my final top 20. I'm pretty sure he'll be drafted earlier than I have him ranked.
Age may or may not be the reason Couturier has fallen a bit.He is after all 7 months older then Strome.
ReplyDeleteTried to get Luedecke to ask Conti what he thought of the placement of the top 5 but other than genralizations apparently he was not forthcoming at all.
ReplyDeleteWhich, if I was picking fourth, I would do as well. Expect they are hoping for their # 1 to fall to them. Conti is very much a complete body of work guy, not who had the single best tournament at end of the year, etc
OF17:
ReplyDeleteI've had season tickets to Hitmen since 2007. I give most away for business but I see a fair number of WHL games ever year and have seen RNH live.
To be honest though my opinion of RNH is really solidified by the people that live and breath WHL hockey. A lot of the folks that follow the WHL have been following religiously for 30+ years and these people swear by RNH.
I'm currently reading Moneyball (a book I recomend even if you hate Baseball) and something Billy Beane likes to say has really stuck with me. He says that "guys are who they are". He meant it in terms that if a guy doesn't already have plate discipline, it's a hard skill to develop, but I think it applies to Hopkins.
ReplyDeleteI'm just not convinced that another year in junior and 10 more pounds is going to turn Hopkins into anything more than a PP specialist who struggles to score at even strength. He is who he is.
Forgot to add that RNH's top end speed isn't elite but his first couple steps are.
ReplyDeleteHockey is a game of spontaneous short races and battles so I think RNH has elite skating for sure.
"Raceguy" posted this over at ON today. Its enlightening regarding RNH's PP points.
ReplyDeleteSJ had 295 powerplays and killed 282 penalties over 68 games.(huberdeau)
Drummondville had 270 powerplays and killed 266 penalties over 68 games.(couturier)
Red Deer had 360 powerplays and killed 345 penalties in 72 games(rnh)
Niagra had 299 powerplays and killed 338 penalties in 68 games(strome)
SJ was a powerhouse in the Q this year. Here are the teams even strength goals per game
SJ 3.47 Drummondville 2.47 Red Deer 2.51 Niagra 2.83
Red Deer had 25% more PP's than Drummondville. (3 full games worth)
This would help explain why RNH has so many more PP points. It also seems to indicate that RNH would have had less ES time due to the extra PK time.
If you put RNH on Drummondville and therefore give him 3 less games of PP time and add ~2 games worth of ES time (due to PK) (so ~5 additional games worth of ES time less 3 games PP time) to what degree do his ES stats improve? How much does this reduce his PP stats?
I'm just not convinced that another year in junior and 10 more pounds is going to turn Hopkins into anything more than a PP specialist who struggles to score at even strength. He is who he is.
ReplyDeleteWas Hopkins ES points to PP points ratio the same last season?
It was 50/50 in 10/11? What was it in 09/10?
Traktor said:
ReplyDeleteForgot to add that RNH's top end speed isn't elite but his first couple steps are.
Hockey is a game of spontaneous short races and battles so I think RNH has elite skating for sure.
I totally agree with this philosophy. Elite Top end speed can be a weapon, but it is far less useful than an elite first few steps both straight ahead and laterally. Like MBS said in the interview w/ Gregor: "He has the quickness and slipperiness defensemen seem to fear."
Also, for what is worth, Jim Nill on drafting Datsyuk: "Pavel had very good skills, but was very small and weak. When we drafted him he was 5'8" and about 145 pounds soaking wet. We liked his skills, but did not know if he would ever grow enough and/or get strong enough to play in the NHL. As we can all see now he did develop."
Was Hopkins ES points to PP points ratio the same last season?
ReplyDeleteIt was 50/50 in 10/11? What was it in 09/10?
That's a good question, and one that I don't have the time to answer right now, but when I do have some free time on my hands I'll do a little research.
Traktor's comments about RNH's first few steps are consistent with what Bruce said when he watched him back in February.
ReplyDeleteAnd all the scouts have raved about his hockey sense and vision.
The concerns with the kid are real too - size, strength, points on PP versus even. It's why there's so much back and forth between rational (and a few irrational fans) on this blog. I like that.
To me that's better than the sweeping generalization that Gregor posted this morning on ON.
Yeah, I know a lot of scouts (who are paid to predict) say RNH is the best player - but when there is no Stamkos/Tavares/Hall and it seems very reasonable to assume that the top pick will be going back to juniors, I don't think it's as open and shut a case for #1.
Besides, when you look at the last time there was a draft when the top few players went back to juniors, hindsight showed that the top pick was not light years ahead of the others. Were there good players - yeah. But not game changer.
And for this reason it's very possible there could be a lot of trading on day one of the draft.
I think BQ said it best in a much smaller sample than any other of you: there's no real #1 so we're likely to be underwhelmed no matter what.
ReplyDeleteI know guys like GD have done some great work equiv wise but the Oilers are so bad that everyone spends too much time focusing on young players where their values aren't as easily pegged as one's who've already made the show.
I get bored and tune out and wish there were more birds in the hand.
I get bored and tune out and wish there were more birds in the hand.
ReplyDeleteYou need to get a job in the exciting poulty industry.
On the weight issue: I suspect they weigh the kids early morning and the 177 figure is, at best, his late evening weight. 6 v 8 reps is also within the realm of ideal conditions v combine conditions (where muscle fatigue is a factor).
ReplyDeleteNot that it matters. But he is young enough that his final NHL size won't be known by the draft. I just hope they send him back to junior. Maybe give him a couple games and let him watch from the press box for a couple more before they send him down. Love speeds' idea, btw.
I get bored and tune out and wish there were more birds in the hand.
ReplyDeleteSometimes all this waiting around for NHL stuff to happen is like strangling a cat.
rearm - seriously
I just hope they send him back to junior.
ReplyDeletev3.0 has already laid the ground work for that.
Almost every time he is inteviewed about the draft he talks about the Oilers not being in a spot where 1st OV HAS to make the team, but can develop in lesser leagues.
He has said that if the 1st OV makes the team on merit, then so be it, but there is no push from the team to make it happen.
Its good to hear.
Too early to know how big RNH will be in 3-4 years.
ReplyDeleteBut if he's got vision and an elite first step, he's going to make some hay in the NHL. If he grows to 6' 200 lbs he's going to make a lot of hay in the NHL.
WG: They always say that. Exept maybe Stamkos.
ReplyDeleteThey always ''merit'' it. Well when you have to beat Macintyre it really ain't that hard.
but when there is no Stamkos/Tavares/Hall and it seems very reasonable to assume that the top pick will be going back to juniors, I don't think it's as open and shut a case for #1.
ReplyDeleteThere is a player like that in the draft, it's RNH. The scouts obviously have concerns about his size and strength but the vast majority of them are still pegging him as the best prospect.
There's a new enforcer in town. His name...Is Nugent-Hopkins. Dunh-dunh-duhhhh.....
ReplyDeleteGran-ten-nae: All 3 of those kids shifted the others in scoring (Hall by GP) RNH doesn't.
ReplyDeleteRibs: You don't need an enforcer.
Gran-ten-nae: Even 3.0 admits at the scouting combine today that this year is different.
ReplyDelete"...it's possibly 4 or 5 who could be the top pick..."
Certainly some of that is gm's speak because you don't lay your cards on the table this soon.
But part of this as well is no one or even two players who are clear of the field. There's talent, but there are also flaws with these players that make the draft this year a bit of a gamble.
And someone said it earlier, part of good draft management is about reducing your risks. The Oilers scouts this year are going to earn their pay if they get it right.
So in 3 years do these lines make sense?
ReplyDeleteHall Gagner Eberle
Paajarvi RNH Hemsky?
Hartikainen Horcoff _____
Hamilton Lander Pitlick
Cogs C?
Omark LW
Martindale LW
Things that worry me:
Not enough size down the middle
Not enough shooters
Not enough right handed forwards
Not enough right handed centermen
What do they need to do if they draft RNH?
Upgrade Gagner to a Getzlaf (good luck)
Swap Hemsky for a healthy shooter.
Find 1-2 physical, checking right wingers
And don't get wrapped up with who's on the 1st - 4th line. Pay attention to which way they shoot.
Ribs: You don't need an enforcer.
ReplyDeleteNot with The Nuginator on the ice.
Fpb,
ReplyDeleteV3.0's language is much different this year.
He talks about the "Oilers finally being in a place where they don't draft pick to step into the NHL"
Oilers pick RNH and he goes back to WHL.
Book it.
Not with The Nuginator on the ice
ReplyDeletelol.I assume you are referring to him out benching Huberdeau.
SKOF: I'm guessing something like this....
ReplyDeleteHall RNH Eberle
Paajarvi Lander Gagner
Hamilton Horcoff Pitlick
Hartikainen Vandevelde ?
Ideally drafting a Joel Armia, Brendan Saad type in the 19 slot would be ideal for this team. Team is going to need bigger scoring wingers. Myabe Ritchie at 31?
I don't even want to look at the defense in three years, its going to look totally unrecognizable.
No guys with their points 4-5 under GP. Just none of them. They don't work. At all. Exept the best you want is a 2nd line PF.
ReplyDeleteWG: If I have to see one more year of the top 3 centers of Gagner, Cogliano and Horcoff, I demand a public flogging of Tambo at city hall.
ReplyDeleteDG: But he's adding some Callahan to his game! It's going to be way better! (Booking thing)
ReplyDeleteWas Hopkins ES points to PP points ratio the same last season?
ReplyDeleteIt was 50/50 in 10/11? What was it in 09/10?
Nugent-Hopkins 09/10
24-41-65 in 67 GP, .970 PPG
21 PPA, 11 PP Goals
49.2% of offense on PP, 51.8% at ES.
.492 PPG at 5x5.
.477 PPG on PP.
Nugent-Hopkins 10/11
31-75-106 in 69 GP, 1.54 PPG.
48 PPA, 11 PP Goals.
55.6% at PP, 44.4% at ES.
.681 PPG at ES.
.855 PPG at PP.
talike: I'm not sure if I'm going 'talike' it if the Oil take Hopkins
@TSNBobMcKenzie: There is always one kid at the Combine who looks like a man amongst boys and this year it's Kitchener captain Landeskog.
ReplyDeleteWG: If I have to see one more year of the top 3 centers of Gagner, Cogliano and Horcoff, I demand a public flogging of Tambo at city hall.
ReplyDeleteYou could drag Lowe and Prendergast out there too on the basis of the C's they passed on in the 2003 draft alone. Getzlaf, Kesler, Richards, etc. Absolutely epic fail by the Oil in that draft year.
Regwald: Curious, Oleksiak just shifts him in everything.
ReplyDeleteDangerMan,
ReplyDeleteI Love that 3rd line. Great even strength line with size and decent speed.
I'm not sure there's enough offense out of that 2nd line. I don't see Lander translating much offense to the NHL.
I'd sure like to see a RH centerman with Hall.
Not sold on VDV, but a vet 4th line C shouldn't be hard to find when they become competitive, even though Oiler management continues to fail at it.
Looks like we agree that Omark or Cogs are tough to slot in.
SKOF: There are some things lacking from your list. Like lack of RH centerman, lack of potential strength in the top 6.
ReplyDeleteLander is a tough call, I think the natural thing do once ready is to put Paajarvi and Lander together and let them fly. I'm not sure if Lander has enough offense either, but I think they will try it out a few times.
I kind of have a belief that 2nd and 4th lines should be quasi developmental lines, while the 1st and 3rd lines are veteran laden. Thats to ensure you have a constant stream of players flowing through and things don't get too stagnant.
Personally, I'd like to see a LHC shooter with Hall, because it makes for some natural one-timers off the rush during EV, as he drives wide. It makes for a very speed oriented, quick strike offense.
Yah, I mentioned that in the 1st post - there's a lack of quality RH centermen. I was just trying to work with what they might have - not considering any trades that could happen.
ReplyDeleteIMHO, As it stands now they would still be unbalanced in 3 years. Obviously some moves will be made between now and then - just not sure I trust the circus making the moves.
SKOF:I guess there is some things that might happen, like Hamilton or Pitlick emerge as 2nd liners, Paajarvi and Lander anchor the 3rd line, in which case they will be looking for another center as Horcoff will be ending his time with the Oilers then.
ReplyDeleteOne thing that is pretty certain is if the Oilers go with RNH, Gagner's time will closing as an Oiler. He'll have to be parlayed into a Dman ASAP.
You're right though, its still kind of an incomplete lineup, but better than it currently is. RNH, Lander, Horcoff down the middle is better than Gagner, Cogliano, Horcoff, but I'm not sure if its quite enough yet.
For sure the forwards will be improved and maybe I'm placing too much empasis on the curve of their sticks (The Twins and Burrows all shoot left I believe). But man even if you project what they have now they have to have a couple guys exceed their pedegree.
ReplyDeleteOf course almost all contenders have a couple guys that emerged from nowhere (Burrows).
The forwards are one thing, but somebody mentioned the D! Then you realize this team is sooo far away and alot of good decisions need to be made in succession before they're the Canucks of the league
@flamingpavelbure:
ReplyDeleteOh yes, Yakupov is an incredible prospect, better than any of this year's forwards at this point.
Target of tank job year 3?
With how often the bench press is getting mentioned I found it interesting that this years average was only 6.8 reps vs last years average of 10.7.
ReplyDeleteMakes you wonder if the difference is really strength or if it has more to do with circumstance, like the order of the testing etc.
If it is circumstantial, which I expect it is considering the highest number was only 13, then they can really only be compared with other kids from this year and last years numbers are irrelevant.