Tom Gilbert has developed into a fine NHL defenseman. He's overexposed on this team and it's easy to poke holes in his game, but it's also clear that he is a capable player with miles of track ahead in his NHL career.
I think Gilbert is a prime trade candidate for the Edmonton Oilers. The club has long wanted more toughness and as we've discussed before "finesse defensemen" and "Edmonton" often don't go well together.
Tom Gilbert 10-11
- 5x5 points per 60: 0.61 (4th among Oil D)
- 5x4 points per 60: 2.63 (4th among Oil D)
- Qual Comp: toughest among D
- Qual Team: 2nd best available among D
- Corsi Rel: 6.0 (best among D)
- Zone Start: 51.4% (4th easiest among D)
- Zone Finish: 50.9% (3rd best among D)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 106 shots/6 goals 5.7% (3rd best)
- Boxcars: 79gp, 6-20-26
- Plus Minus: -14 on a team that was -52
- What do these numbers tell us? He remains a wonderful NHL defenseman. I think Whitney is a better defenseman but it isn't a wide gap and in fact there's evidence here coach Renney felt Gilbert was the better man. Toughest available competition, best Corsi and a solid plus minus based on minutes.
- What? SOLID plus minus based on minutes? Yes. Gilbert played 1434 minutes at evens and the Oilers defenders played 3,983 minutes (multiply that number by 2--for each defenseman on the ice--and you get the total TOI for Oilers D this past season). Gilbert's minutes (1434) times the total plus minus number (-52) and divided by the total D minutes at EVs for the season (3983) gives us an expected number of -18.7. Gilbert's number is better than that, and we also have to consider he was playing tough competition. It isn't perfect, but does give us a line in the sand.
- How could these numbers be better? Broken record time but they need more Tom Gilbert's. He played over 30% of his EV minutes with Peckham (39.12%) or Smid (30.8%) and played with 9 different partners at even strength during the season. I like Peckham and Smid's season has lots of positives, but I'm not certain we can argue that either is a bona fide top 4 defender at this time.
- What are his strengths? He's healthy. God love this guy he man's up even when Quentin Turnbull knocks on the door. He's an actual NHL player. Gilbert can play the game, is a solid positonal defenseman and when playing with confidence is among the best we've seen in Oilers silks at sneaking down from the blueline for a goalmouth scoring opportunity.
- He doesn't hit anyone. He's very ineffective in the physical aspects of the game and it hurts the Oilers. No one fears us. No one fears the Oilers because they're no damn good. Tom Gilbert can play his position.
- He's not all that, you know. Well he's very good. You know that pass that everyone is talking about today? The Ehrhoff pass? Tom Gilbert has the ability and skill to make that pass.
- He could also be Vlasic on that play (lost his mark in Sedin and chased the play). True, Gilbert's coverage isn't elite level. However, he's an experienced player who can read the play well and gain position. His exposure has more to do with his extended minutes, toughness of competition and the flat tires he's out there with every night.
- You're defending him to the death AND you want him traded! I don't want him traded, but do believe he's in that range where teams flush good players.
- This should be good. Please explain. It happens all the time. Bad teams (NHL, MLB, NFL, CFL, ABA, NBA, CIA, FBI) coming off bad seasons often blame their best players. "We finished last with him, we can finish last without him" is the old saw (from Branch Rickey, I believe) and losing teams very often make mistakes when assessing the problem. The Montreal Expos traded Gary Carter for exactly this reason.
- His offense is way off, too. Mostly because the Oilers used him differently this season. He played about one minute 20 extra at even strength and about 40 seconds on the PK above what he'd done the previous season. Two extra minutes per night over a long season--with all of the other items we've discussed factored in--leaves the impression that he underperformed. I don't believe he did, but many organizations in the Oilers position have flushed Tom Gilbert's in the same circumstances.
•08-09 5x5 per 60m: 1.30
•09-10 5x5 per 60m: 0.92
•10-11 5x5 per 60m: 0.61
By The Numbers
•08-09 5x4 per 60m: 3.91
•09-10 5x4 per 60m: 2.24
•10-11 5x5 per 60m: 2.63
Prediction for 2010-11: 80gp, 9-33-42 (.525)
Actual 2010: 79gp, 6-20-26 (.329)
A quality NHL defenseman
Gilbert can stay!!
ReplyDeleteOff topic but Glencross signed in Calgary per TSN for 4 years 10.2 million, $2.55 million cap hit. Yikes!
Apparently there's a nmc or ntc in it too. Yikes.
ReplyDeletehttp://oilonwhyte.com/2011/05/16/urgent-help-those-affected-by-wildfires-in-slave-lake/
Solid post LT Great description of Tom Gilbert.
ReplyDeleteWhy do you hate Gilbert so much LT? :-)
ReplyDeleteI think he is a very good player. He is able to be that 4th guy on the rush, pinch, and even forecheck. I blame most of his coverage issues on the centers and their inability to get their coverage down properly.
I'd be very disappointed if they traded him and I'll trade anyone for a pick or prospect (see ya Ales).
Given all the holes they have on defence I can't see them trading him this season. However, if Petry continues to develop, I could see the day when they will have too many "soft" USA puck movers (Whitney, Gilbert, Petry) and may trade one.
I haven't confirmed this yet, but apparently the NMC is a bit unique:
ReplyDeleteIt is only in effect 3 years of the deal, and in the first year it is a standard NMC. During years 2 and 3 it allows the Flames to request a list of 10-12 potential destinations in writing and the Flames have 21 days to make a deal. They can do this only once in each of those two seasons.
Per some guy commenting on TSN.
Trading Gilbert would be silly. I hope it's not in the plans.
ReplyDeleteDid Damian Goddard really get fired from Sportsnet for a wayward tweet?
Ribs, apparently yes.
ReplyDeleteGilbert is the new Poti. There will be a large section of fans who cheer when he leaves town, and he'll just go elsewhere and have a solid NHL career.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, those same fans will be sitting around talking about how the Oilers need more puck-moving dmen.
I don't know how they could possibly justify trading Gilbert right now. And I think I'm a little more optimistic about him being kept long-term; remember, this player outlasted all of Souray, Grebeshkov and Vishnovsky.
ReplyDeleteI was very happy with Gilbert's year. Maybe the counting numbers weren't there this year, and he had that one bad stretch in the fall, but other than that he was an absolute stalwart.
ReplyDeleteI think the key would be to find a quality banger with size and strength to play alongside him, maybe Shane O"Brien. If we can agree that there's no need to add an elite defenceman for the coming year, then maybe we run something like:
WHIT PETR
OBRI GILB
Or flip Petry and Gilbert.
@Ribs
ReplyDeleteHis tweet had something to do with his view on same sex marriage.I think he supported some player agents take on it after Sean Avery supported it.
Have heard your reasoning with trading Gilbert (you have to give something to get something). We all know this is a team with big holes in it - especially on the blue.
ReplyDeleteBut if you traded Gilbert, it would have to include something very decent coming back. While he may not hit anyone, I've always liked what Gilbert has brought. He's a solid 2nd pairing d-man and can get the puck out of our zone.
For anyone who cares to remember when we had major issues back in 06/07 executing a break-out, Gilbert was one of the solutions.
Would not be happy if he's sent away - BUT nothing would surprise me with this roster and mgmnt might see this skill replicated in Petry.
@Clay...good point! he might be a so called marshmallow but we could sure use his point production from the back end.
ReplyDeletehockeyguy10 - I'm seeing that. I just can't believe they fired him for it. I guess that's the hyper-sensitive politically correct world we live in these days.
ReplyDeleteRibs-seems the only stance a person can take nowadays is a politically correct one.
ReplyDeleteIn this case if he agreed with the player's agents' opinion it's just discriminatory.
ReplyDeleteGay people have the RIGHT to access civil marriage.
Might as well want to impeach black people to marry themselves and call that an opinion.
fbv..you just made my point.
ReplyDeleteThe only problem with Gilbert is that the Oilers don't have a competent physical defensive defenseman to play with him.
ReplyDeleteIt would be a mistake to trade him at this point.
Would this be the same marshmallow who led Oilers defenders in ice time by margins of ten and six hours the last two years? The same bleeding poofter who has been among the top dozen shotblockers in the NHL three of the past four years? The same limp noodle that showed up for work 332 nights in a row?
ReplyDeleteGet rid of him. He's a wuss.
Hockeyguy: That's not a case of being politically correct.
ReplyDeleteBeing politically correct would be on something you know it isn't true but you can't say otherwise.
Ex: Feminine Tennis is as good as masculine Tennis.
That's not the case here. It's not even a term of opinion.
fbv-Goddard gave his opinion,it wasn't the politically correct one,now he is out of a job.If he would have said he had no problem with gay marriage he would still be employed.End of discussion.
ReplyDeleteAnyone want to revisit the election and results?
ReplyDeleteGilbert has way more value than I think we'd get in a trade. He has an unfair reputation for being soft (see Bruce's post above) and is a guy you can count on for 82 games a season. Considering our other top D has serious injury concerns Gilbert's ability to stay healthy is big. As is his ability to get the puck going in the right direction.
I hope they don't trade them and I don't see how they win a deal. Though I see your point that he is the kind of guy I could see moving, unfortunately.
Hockeyguy: He got fired because he was in a discriminatory stance, not because he had a politically incorrect opinion.
ReplyDeleteAnd don't pull the religious beliefs out of it. Beliefs in whatever form do not constitute a good reason/acceptable argument in any debate outside of theology.
Switch gays with any ethnic minority and it causes a giant uproar. That's simply unacceptable.
Rynolds: Very sad to read Sean Avery's misguided support of same-gender 'marriage.' Legal or not, it will always be wrong.
ReplyDeleteTo clarify. This is not hatred or bigotry towards gays. It is not intolerance in any way shape or form. I believe we are all equal.
But I believe in the sanctity of marriage between one man and one woman. This is my personal viewpoint. I Do not hate anyone.
Goddard: I completely and whole-heartedly support Todd Reynolds and his support for the traditional and TRUE meaning of marriage.
So, the Gibby thread has been hijacked into a debate about whether or not being anti same-sex marriage is the same as being a racist.
ReplyDeleteWonderful.
Tim Haraway, 2007: You know, I hate gay people, so I let it be known. I don't like gay people and I don't like to be around gay people. I am homophobic. I don't like it. It shouldn't be in the world or in the United States.
ReplyDeleteSo... At least people have gotten more careful about qualifying their statements in the last 4 years. Small steps I guess.
Theard Jacking:
ReplyDeleteIf Jagr were willing to play for a year in Edmonton and help bring the kids along...
1 - Would you want him?
2 - Where?
3 - What would be a fair Price for him?
Also: As a man who is losing what hair he had, Gilbert's wavy locks are both gauling and inspiring. Maybe some presumptions about men with pretty hair have assisted in ensuring this ssm debate happens in his thread... That said, for the love of good hockey keep the man!
So, the Gibby thread has been hijacked into a debate about whether or not being anti same-sex marriage is the same as being a racist.
ReplyDeleteHere I'll fix it...
So fpb, I see that Couturier is not the number 1 choice of ISS or LT. I guess he (Couturier, not LT)has problems the math doesn't see.
Ducey: I didn't start this shit.
ReplyDeleteIf western conference forwards were polled on which D men in the conference were toughest (smarts, physical, takeaways, all of it) to play against, I wonder how Gilbert would fare?
ReplyDeleteSorry about the thread jack... I was just surprised that a guy gets fired for saying basically the same thing many other people have said in the past without punishment.
ReplyDeleteBarack Obama...
"I'm a Christian. And so, although I try not to have my religious beliefs dominate or determine my political views on this issue, I do believe that tradition, and my religious beliefs say that marriage is something sanctified between a man and a woman."
Stephen Harper...
"It will come as no surprise to anybody to know that I support the traditional definition of marriage as a union of one man and one woman to the exclusion of all others, as expressed in our traditional common law."
fpv - And don't pull the religious beliefs out of it.
Well, good luck with that.
...And just to note; I don't personally care about gay marriage. It makes absolutely zero impact on my life. The firing just perks my interest is all.
Ribs: Because other people did it doesn't make it any more acceptable.
ReplyDeleteI think the idea of marriage is just as dumb as the idea of trying to decree which people are entitled to said institution:)
ReplyDeleteanyway, if we could find out what Stu MacGregor thought of same-sex marriage than I think I'd know where most people here stood.
Personally, I am all for same-sex couples as long as they can be signed to affordable contracts and they can kill penalties and win faceoffs and keep their head above water playing tough comp.
As for 77, I think he'll eventually be driven out of the city because even though he's a lead guitarist, he doesn't make the cool faces when when he plays his solos.
ReplyDeleteDennis said...
ReplyDeletePersonally, I am all for same-sex couples as long as they can be signed to affordable contracts and they can kill penalties and win faceoffs and keep their head above water playing tough comp.
I'm offended there was no double-entendre in there anywhere.
Dennis - Sometimes he even covers his face during solos!
ReplyDeleteTom Gilbert is the man being asked to fend off hordes of zombies with for help a bunch of guys in wheelchairs/children.
ReplyDeleteRibs: nice:)
ReplyDeletemy idea basically boiled down to there are some people who are not gonna like dmen who don't play physical.
I used the music analogy because I've been playing a lot of guitar lately so it seemed to fit.
A very good defenceman - sadly he's going to get run out of town I'm afraid.
ReplyDeleteToo bad, he's a player.
Personally, I'd really like the Oilers either get a good partner for Gilbert or deal him.
ReplyDeleteI love his sublime passing skills and offensive contributions and shot blocking.
I hate the poor one-on-one defense, late challenges to the puck and flat out lazy board play.
Grasping at straws here, but what if Teubert can become that stay at home guy that will let Gilbert thrive?
The only other issue with Gilbert is his salary.
ReplyDeleteThe guy is dynamic in our zone, but IMO we're not seeing good enough offensive results to warrant the $2M boost to the zenith of his contract ($5.5m)for this 10/11 season, and the $5m due next year.
However, if the Oilers are patient with him and he shows better results, his contract could be a bargain when it goes back down to $3.5m in 12/13 and $3m in 13/14.
@Rick - You do know that his cap hit will not change, right? So, really, the only one who cares about the actual number is Katz.
ReplyDelete@Clay, I'm not so sure. Teams struggling to make the cap floor would like that type of contract.
ReplyDeleteI've never been a huge fan of Gilbert myself, but to me the numbers tell me one thing. Like any other Oiler, he's a victim of the roster.
Of course, there's the age old argument that Gilbert took a payday based on 2nd assists.
Either way, this team needs more actual NHL players, not less. Gilbert's at least an actual NHL player. The fact that he isn't yet made of glass doesn't hurt either.
@Jordan.
ReplyDeleteJagr's not going to play for the Oilers. He's publicly expressed interest in playing for a contender next year--preferably the Pens.
List of actual NHL Players on the Oilers:
ReplyDeleteHorcoff
Hemsky
Gilbert
Whitney
Lordy.
2 of those 4 are in trade rumours.
Eberle and Hall will be ANP soon, but its ridiculous to rely on kids.
I can't wait until we see if we get a lottery pick June 2013 too.
Wheeee!
Picking in the top 3 yielded 18 impact players from 2000-2009
ReplyDeletePicking 10-13 yielded 6 impact players in the same 10 year span.
I can't wait to see if Edmonton signs Marty Reasoner and Jan hejda to 1 year contracts so we can finish 20th! Weeeeeee!
Woodguy,
ReplyDeleteYeah, as someone mentioned in the previous thread, the Donnairman heading to LA does portend another lottery.
When we read about Strudwick signing a 1 year deal with another 20% raise, it will be official.
Picking in the top 3 yielded 18 impact players from 2000-2009
ReplyDeletePicking 10-13 yielded 6 impact players in the same 10 year span.
I can't wait to see if Edmonton signs Marty Reasoner and Jan hejda to 1 year contracts so we can finish 20th! Weeeeeee!
List of Cup Champs since lock out, along with the number of lottery picks they had, and whether or not those lottery picks were on their Entry Level Contract (ELC)
Chicago 2010 Cup champs had 2 lottery picks (both on ELC)
Pittsburgh 2009 had 4 lottery picks (2 on ELC)
Detroit 2008 had 0
Anaheim 2007 had 0 lottery picks (top 2 scorers, Getzlaf (19th overall) and Perry (28th overall) were both on ELC
*In fact there were only 3 Anaheim players on that cup team who were drafted by Anaheim.
Carolina 2006 had 1 lottery pick (on ELC and a 25th overall goalie on ELC)
Oiler will now have 2 lottery picks, plus Pajaarvi at 10th and Eberle at 22nd, who probably goes top 10 in a re-draw.
So the Oilers will have more lottery picks than 3 of 5 of the last cup winner, and just as many as CHI. Only PIT.
Not only that, but out of the 7 lottery picks to win the last 5 cups, 5 of them were still on their ELC.
Hall, Eberle and Pajaarvi only have 2 years left of ELC.
So if you are going to build your cup winner with lottery picks, it seems like its best to load up with Real NHL Players in the other positions and win soon.
Don't let these facts get in the way of you cheering for never ending lottery picks though.
Danny
ReplyDeletePicking top 3 you must have a horrible team. In your case, for 3 years. You then have a 60 % chance at an impact player. So what happens if in 2 of the three years that your team is an abomination you pull 2 players that are not impact players? Know that you have thought this through but we may not know they are good not great players for 2 or 3 years. What then?
Some of our other prospects will not develop the way we hoped(Cogliano) and others do not develop to what we expected. We will then have deliberately been trully horrible to have a good not great team.
And that is using your impact player stats and fully expecting Hall to be a 40 goal man.
But let's project all of our prospects at 80% of we all expect. that is not uncommon with prospects. Maricin becomes a tall skinny Laddi Smid and Hamilton becomes a 4th line 8 to 10 goal scorer NOT an 18 to 20 goal scorer on your 3rd line.
We then become a 6th thru 10th place team in the west. Liking the projected future now? Because nothing done by management leads anyone to believe this group has picked up good NHL talent to fill out a roster
Or we can assume as you have that our 3 top picks will each be impactful stars. And all of our later round picks out perform their draft slot. That is possible, just not probable
If they all are not where you slot them, we are not talking 3 rounds of playoffs perennially.
Guess the guys saying sign real NHL players now may not be quite as stupid as you currentlythink.
WG just won the thread.
ReplyDeleteit's over.
Cleveland just smoked Kansas City 19-1. Ouch.
ReplyDeleteWG: You said exactly what everyone is thinking. (well, not everyone, but you know what I mean). The time for winning is sooner rather than later. Its time to build and find important pieces ASAP. Otherwise the Oilers will just be stuck in a perpetual rebuild.
ReplyDeleteIf Tom Gilbert is in your top 4...you don't have very good hockey team,
ReplyDeleteGilbert and Keith Ballard are virtual clones although Ballard has an ability to hip check which Gilbert lacks.
Ballard can't maintain a position in Vancouver's top 6.
Gives you a pretty good indication of Gilbert's worth.
#7 on a good team.
Gives you a pretty good indication of Gilbert's worth.
ReplyDelete#7 on a good team.
Troll.
DSF,
ReplyDeleteI can see why they needed to wire your jaw shut.
WG,
The problem is that you have this years #1 who will not play this season, no #1 C, little in the way of a bottom 6, no #1 goaler and at least 1 spot for a Dman. On top of that you have a ton of inexperience.
Add in the fact that there are few assets to trade (unless you are going to trade prospects) and FA of any signifigance are out of the question.
You can say "win now" all you want but it does not seem very realistic. A Cup run this year would be impossible.
I don't mind Gilbert. He's a solid #4 that was playing 1st line minutes.
ReplyDeleteIf he averaged 15 minutes a game like Ballard he would most likely have a lot more to offer on a shift by shift basis.
I don't care if we keep him or trade him but at the very least I think we could trade him for a 3rd without taking salary back.
The aforementioned Ballard was traded for a 1st rounder and a 30 goal scorer just last year so I'm probably being conservative.
Horcoff on the other hand wouldn't even be claimed on re-entry.
And now I know SS's exact position.
ReplyDeleteTraktor said...
ReplyDeleteI don't mind Gilbert. He's a solid #4 that was playing 1st line minutes.
If he averaged 15 minutes a game like Ballard he would most likely have a lot more to offer on a shift by shift basis.
I don't care if we keep him or trade him but at the very least I think we could trade him for a 3rd without taking salary back.
The aforementioned Ballard was traded for a 1st rounder and a 30 goal scorer just last year so I'm probably being conservative.
Horcoff on the other hand wouldn't even be claimed on re-entry.
Monday, May 16, 2011 10:20:00 PM MDT
This is pretty accurate.
Who's talking about cup run in Edmonton? I just want to see the Oilers make some progress, limiting the amount of holes on their team and recognizing what their weaknesses are.
ReplyDeleteSomeone needs to break out the Jim Mora here.
ReplyDeleteYou can say "win now" all you want but it does not seem very realistic. A Cup run this year would be impossible.
I agree its next to impossible, but adding good players instead of shit is a good place to start.
The pieces are there to start building, it has to start sometime.
Since Penner is gone, I'd say that adding the right pieces gets them 11th or 12th in WC, then a chance at the playoffs the year after if quality pieces get added, kids get older and holes are filled.
Woodguy:
ReplyDeleteWhere does Horcoff and Gagner play on this cup winning team you are building?
I'm just wondering people on here think stats just happen on god given ability and have nothing to do with with coahing or the system was built around them that happened to benefit them.
ReplyDeleteGrabner is Exhibit A. He just found a nice soft spot to land and use his abilities. Saying Grabner can score 30 with the Islanders means he can score 30 anywhere is just Bullnanny.
Tom Gilbert a #7 Dman, sure on Vancouver I guess but he'd be a #2 on San Jose.
DangerMan said...
ReplyDeleteI'm just wondering people on here think stats just happen on god given ability and have nothing to do with with coahing or the system was built around them that happened to benefit them.
Grabner is Exhibit A. He just found a nice soft spot to land and use his abilities. Saying Grabner can score 30 with the Islanders means he can score 30 anywhere is just Bullnanny.
Tom Gilbert a #7 Dman, sure on Vancouver I guess but he'd be a #2 on San Jose.
And that's exactly why Vancouver will beat San Jose.
Their defense is shit.
stupid question:
ReplyDeletewhy didn't Boston and Tampa play tonight?
"Who's talking about cup run in Edmonton? I just want to see the Oilers make some progress, limiting the amount of holes on their team and recognizing what their weaknesses are."
ReplyDeleteOilers have recognized at least one weakness -in the last year they have attempted to acquire Seguin, Johansen and B. Schenn.
If you don't think Edmonton has made any progress then you're looking in the wrong places.
Just one example would be turning a last place farm club into playoff team.
Edmonton needs foundation work on the parent club. Patching holes is what a bush leauge contractor would do. "Just getter done!"
Oilersfan: Probably a show scheduled in Boston.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteWhere does Horcoff and Gagner play on this cup winning team you are building?
You are a troll who has said that Hocoff isn't a top 6 player on any team in the NHL, which by any measure is ridiculous.
You are not interested in my opinion, you, like DSF, just stir up shit, stand on soap boxes and make impossible to prove assertions with no facts, then scurry away.
That being said, your question is actually a good one.
If Gagner doesn't show improvement on the defensive aspects of being a center next year and also all around improvement, I move him to RW or trade him. If Hemsky is gone, I definitely keep him at RW.
Horcoff had a good year with the two pure rookies against tough comp this year and I keep him in that role as long as he can handle it and move him down the depth chart as players appear to take his place, assuming his health holds.
By the time the Oilers are ready to win the cup (3+ years) Horcoff will be 35 and probably not nearly as effective as he was this year (when healthy) At that point he's probably your 3C, but still taking tough minutes.
Word is that PHI is unhappy with Carter and he with them, and they are very, very capstrung. I make a big play for him and draft which ever C MBS likes best this year.
So Edmonton needs to start winning now while we have ELCs?
ReplyDeleteYeah let's conveniently ignore that our ceiling is 20th overall next season.
Let's conveniently ignore that players like Reasoner are available every year, so passing on them for one more season doesn't negate your ability to add them during the almighty ELC era.
Your argument is superfluous at best. Why? Edmontons cup window is 3 or 4 years away earliest. This is a lottery team that needs significant help to improve and be competitive. Fighting for 20th next season is as stupid as it gets unless you do it by adding real long term solutions that are going to be here when that window arrives.
I'm all for adding real players and getting better immediately, and I've been very clear about that. If Edmonton can trade the next couple firsts for Malkin, that makes sense. Signing Marty Reasoner and Radek Dvorak to 1 or 2 year deals, well that's premature and short sighted.
Not to mention adding a lottery pick this year, puts Edmonton with the magicalistic 2 ELCs three years from now which pretty much guarantees a cup win.
ReplyDeleteThe only way I can get behind signing guys like the stopgaps, is if Edmonton traded next years lottery chances for a top pick this season. For example trade next years pick to NJ for this years 4th.
ReplyDeleteTHEN, competing for 20th now makes more sense.
I'm all for adding real players and getting better immediately, and I've been very clear about that. If Edmonton can trade the next couple firsts for Malkin, that makes sense. Signing Marty Reasoner and Radek Dvorak to 1 or 2 year deals, well that's premature and short sighted.
ReplyDeleteWell if you did land Malkin, how long before he pulled a Pronger or Heatley? And giving up a couple of lottery picks to do it? No thanks.
Thats the rub and why the Oilers will need to develop their own stars - thru the draft.
I'd actually be okay with Reasoner or Dvorak - if they would come. They could be flipped at the deadline and then Lander and Hamilton could come up to finish the season.
Who's talking about cup run in Edmonton? I just want to see the Oilers make some progress, limiting the amount of holes on their team and recognizing what their weaknesses are.
I don't doubt they know the weaknesses. But the question is what you do to fill them. I'd rather they fill them internally while at the same time taking advantage of good draft positions.
As Babcock said earlier this season about the Oilers: "If you get too good, too fast, you don't get good enough".
Ducey, im not sure I see the strength in adding stopgap to flip at the deadline when the consequence is knocking you out of lottery contention.
ReplyDeleteTheres easier ways to add later round picks, than sacrificing a 1st-4th overall IMO
DSF: I try to take your comments seriously but when you say stupid shit like "Gilbert would be a #7 on Vancouver" or "Gilbert and Ballard are virtual clones" you shoot your credibility right in the head.
ReplyDeleteBallard scored 7 points all year, playing on the highest scoring team in the NHL. He contributed to a mighty 2.7% of their offence. Gilbert meanwhile scored 26 points playing for the third-lowest scoring team in hockey, chipping in on 13.6% of their offence. Part of that can be ascribed to the extra 15 hours of ice time Gilbert played (which might be a clue in itself that the guy is pretty good, although I know you'll discount that out of hand because he's an Oiler).
Gilbert had a raw (not relative) Corsi that was better than Ballard's, despite the fact Gilbert was playing on the worst team in the league and Ballard on the best, despite the fact that the shot differential between the two teams was 7 shots per game in Vancouver's favour.
But yeah, other than that and a bunch of other stuff that I won't get into, they're identical twins.
'Tangled up in Blue' is a good Dylan song title for Gilbert. 'Idiot Wind' would've been even better.
ReplyDeleteLee said... 'Idiot Wind' would've been even better.
ReplyDeleteHow so?
I'm not saying you go out and fuck your cap for years to come but it's time to start looking around and adding players without being naive enough to think that everything we need is already here.
ReplyDeleteI get the feeling that Danny and others just want more kids like Lander and Hamilton playing top nine roles and getting their brains beat in just because they're afraid that any move made for real players is going to be the wrong one; or because they are drunk on being the belles of June.
Plus, the one thing we can't account for or quantify is the value of having some vets who show the kids the right way to do things.
We disagree by 1 year, you say the time is now, i say the time is next summer. I know its fun to make sweeping generalizations here when anyone goes against the grain, like woodguys 'facts' earlier.
ReplyDeleteI personally see it as a waste of being in the position we are, to make stopgap improvements that improve the team with resources that are available fairly cheap every year.
If we can add some real players to longer term deals then you're shooting yourself in the foot by not taking advantage of it when its available, but I don't see that type of player wanting to sign next season (Malhotra types). So we're left with older journeymen that only real value is to teach the kids what being crusty means.
I say we wait a year, because we arent making the playoffs anyways. Hopefully get a big defenseman or pivot in the top 3 next draft, and then make the Reasoner type moves when we have a more realistic chance of competing in 2012-13.
I mean that sounds logical to me. The only real counterarguments that rank are the crusty teachers, and the malcontent of paying customers.
I think they are easily outweighed by having the opportunity to add an ELC like Hall/Seguin/Stamkos etc.
I know we went ass backwards into Hall, but where would we be now if we had signed Dvorak and Reasoner a few years ago? terminally mediocre.
Theres a bright future ahead, 3 or 4 years away, and finishing 20th instead of 30th next year only hurts us in the big picture.
Danny: I just don't see why we have to wait one more year in order to bring in some vet pieces and/or start looking for some real pieces.
ReplyDeletemy reason is that you're 300+% more likely to get a long term impact player on your roster drafting top 3 than 10-13th.
ReplyDeleteYoure hedging the former, in a scenario where the only payoff is the latter.