It's an interesting signing in that it now gives the team 10 NHL forwards under contract. There are three center's (Horcoff, Gagner and Fraser) plus seven wingers (Hall, Eberle, Pääjärvi, Hemsky, Omark, Brule and now Jones).
Andrew Cogliano and JF Jacques are RFA, with Steve MacIntyre the remaining UFA of note from last season's team.
If the team is serious about adding Hartikainen to the roster (a good bet, the young man impressed late) then it would appear the the Oilers now have 8 wingers for the NHL roster:
- Hemsky
- Hall
- Eberle
- Pääjärvi
- Omark
- Jones
- Brule
- Hartikainen
couldn't be happier about JFJ
ReplyDeleteThank goodness Jonesy is back, I was starting to worry about that third line. 2/3rds done. Need to find a nice LW on that line now.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to agree with the JFJ note, but the Oilers have always had better options and still continued to make a place for him.
ReplyDeleteI like Jones' hustle and his attitude, but this team desperately needs penalty killers and I've never felt overly comfortable with him on the PK.
Thank goodness Jonesy is back, I was starting to worry about that third line. 2/3rds done.
ReplyDeleteNow that Jones is signed I'm even more worried about the 3rd line.
Jones makes almost everyone else worse. Much worse.
WG: All those numbers tell me is that the Oilers could use some better centers. I'm guessing playing with Fraser was less than enjoyable, and playing with Cogliano wasn't much better, got little time with Gagner, and didn't get any with Horcoff. I'm guessing playing with Horcoff, he'll have a chance to at least tread water.
ReplyDeletePlaying with those C's, Jones scored the same number of EV goals as David Booth and Teemu Selanne. Unless Gretzky's coming back, I don't think he'll do that again.
ReplyDeleteThere's not an established level of ability for Jones. I'm fine with the dollars--it's a little high--and would have preferred a one year deal.
That said, it's fine.
I just don't know how much he helps. I'm hoping his signing ends the JFJ experience, that would be worth the extra $200,000 per season.
Ryan jones:
ReplyDeleteNCAA 62% of points from goals
AHL 62% of points from Goals
NHL 61% of points from Goals
I will take 25Pts and Even play.
Jones is a decent stopgap player in this lottery hunting team.
ReplyDeleteAt least he's not injury prone or a physical coward - a market the post lockout Oilers seem to have cornered.
Just think: Injury plagued Shawn Horcoff will make off with approx 1,000,000 dollars for every point he collected in the year prior to his last contract.
ReplyDeleteOkay, I'm having a tough weekend.
WG: All those numbers tell me is that the Oilers could use some better centers
ReplyDeleteWhile I won't dispute the lack of good C's on the Oilers, blaming Jone's scoring chance numbers on others is like blaming the patient for getting the flu.
He infected everyone on the team, save two.
As bad as the team was, they were much worse with him than without him.
Look how close some players got to .500 without him and bad they were with him.
Playing with Jones was a serious disease that directly affected scoring chances.
Re: the value of the contract, $1.5mm is better than what they gave Brule. May they are finally learning something about contracts.
ReplyDeleteHope you're right about them not needing JFJ, but I'm not convinced yet.
Still waiting to see in that forward group who is going to kill penalty's.
And waiting...
And waiting...
Dislike.
ReplyDeleteComing off a career year without the peripheral stats to back it up. Also, he can't kill penalties.
Maybe now that Katz has his arena he'll actually, you know, start paying attention to the team.
Had a drink with this guy after game 2 (Florida) last year at pint. He scored the game winner in that game, i believe. He was appreciative of the support and chatted it up with our group.
ReplyDeleteI think he really enjoys playing here - let's be honest, 3rd liners don't get that sort of attention in most NHL markets.
I'm fine with 2 years. He's a guy who wants to be here (as displayed by not testing free agency), is respected in the dressing room, and most importantly, the contract has potential for over-performance.
Of course I said similar about Brule a year ago, so what I do know?
Hopefully Brule gets bought out at 1/3 this summer. Khabibulin to Russia. Colin Fraser to AHL. Lets start filling those holes with NHL players.
Wonder how much the fans influenced this signing though?
ReplyDeleteAt the Oilers season ticket holders event, after Jones name was mentioned, the crowed roared in applause.
Just stating, not hating.
Re: the value of the contract, $1.5mm is better than what they gave Brule. May they are finally learning something about contracts.
ReplyDeleteNo, no they are not. 1.5 is 0.5 too high for a player of Jones' established ability (this year was way above his head and the contract needed to make the horseshoe deduction) and 1 year too long. We will regret this signing by November.
At least he is not injury prone. That is all that can be said about him.
As a UFA, I suspect he'd get around 1.5M, especially given a rising cap.
ReplyDeleteThe key with this contract was term. Limiting it to 2 years was vital, and that was accomplished.
LT: I'm not so concerned with what Jones is scoring, as long as its more than 10, I'd be fine with that, its what he's giving up is how he should be measured. (MacTism alert!) Its what you get as opposed to what you give up. He'll have to battle tooth and nail to stay on the positive side of the ledger, but I feel he's one of the few players on the Oilers that can, given adequate linemates.
ReplyDeleteNot to mention the fact that I think Jones is a prime player that could go all Fernando on us if the Oilers can find the playoffs with a half burnt map and a low dim flashlight.
Its a good deal because it bridges the gap for when either Hamilton and/or Pitlick are ready.
Ryan Jones is proof positive that you can make the NHL as a cherrypicker. And apparently make $3.0 million doing it.
ReplyDeleteFor those who missed this conversation goodness in the prior thread:
ReplyDeleteNHL Trade Rumor Alert :)
From LT himself:
I've heard the rumor as Hemsky, Cogliano, 5th rder to NJD for Rolston, White and 4th overall.
Rolston and White are toast, so it's 83, 13 for #4OV.
I agree that Rolston is toast, but White might actually fit in pretty high on our depth chart, lol.
Ryan Jones is proof positive that you can make the NHL as a cherrypicker. And apparently make $3.0 million doing it.
ReplyDeleteAs long as you look like you're working hard and play in a blue collar town.
I wonder if Jones plays with dulled edges? He looks likes his legs are always pumping and he falls down a lot. A lot.
The group lauding Jones as something beyond a fringe NHLer are probably the same geniuses with the pitchforks out for Tom Gilbert because he's "soft and overpaid".
ReplyDeleteRight.
Colin White 2010/11:
ReplyDeleteCorQC 2/6
CorQT 1/6
5v5 +/- per 60 -0.17. 3/6
RelCor -6.7 5/6
Zone start 49.1% toughest among D
Zone finish 50.6% end best among D.
Zonestart differential +1.5% Best among D.
Played toughs with the best help and was over his head, but not horribly so. Zonestarts are very good given that he was against toughs.
4v5
TOI/60 2.68 1/4
GA/60 5.83 2nd worst of 4
1st Pairing 4v5 with ok results.
GP last 5 seasons: 69, 81, 71, 57, 69
Not really durable, but not Hemsky/Horcoff fragility.
6'4". 213lbs turns 34 this DEC, last year of contract.
Shoots left.
Pair him with Gilbert and that's probably a decent 2nd pairing.
I vaguely remember him getting seriously hurt this year. Anyone have anything on that?
I think the it is the progression of glencross that affected this signing more than any other factor.
ReplyDelete1,5 is too muhc but i like the term. We can afford to overpay...but i would have liked better players
I can't say I'm happy with this signing, but can't say I didn't expect it either. I suppose he brings energy and secondary scoring and and can move up to the 3rd line. And he might continue to improve on the PP... but it still seems far too rich for a 4th liner.
ReplyDeleteHowever if this means JFJ is gone, we have to consider it an improvement.
I suspect though, they have RJ pencilled in at RW.
Seadogs have played a strong game so far.
Hopefully certain fans stick to their guns this time instead of doing a 180 and calling him useful a year later
ReplyDeleteCurrently he's a black hole where scoring chances go to die.
If he puts up +.450 or better in that regard and has a 4v5 GA0/60 under 6.5 he will prove useful as a 4LW (not a 3LW)
I truely dislike the signing today. If he does what I outlined above I will admit I was wrong.
I doubt I'll have to do that, but I may.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteWell at least we didn't trade for him. :-)
ReplyDeleteI'd honestly consider the NJ deal, and I'm a big Hemsky proponent.
ReplyDeleteAs long as we select one of Couturier/Huberdeau.
A big no if it's Larsson (doesn't bring the offense) or Landeskog (Math doesn't see much upside, and SMB suggested he'll be a third liner).
If nothing transpires at the draft, you begin working towards an extension.
Don't see the NTC's being much of a factor. NJ can use threat of sending those players to waivers (and the Oilers pick them up).
The Oilers have some cap space in these upcoming 2 years. I'd like to see them take advantage of it.
It's not that bad guys. At least he wants to be here and has a smile.
ReplyDeleteLikeable guy getting a pay-day. The first ELC's dont end until his contract ends so no worries. Just getting a good guy, good money.
And St-John gets the cup with Huberdeau leading the charge.
If that NJ deal were to happen, I'd bet big money we'd leave the draft with RNH/Hamilton, not Larsson/Couturier or Larsson/Huberdeau.
ReplyDeleteJournal
ReplyDeleteJones, who scored 18 goals and made $975,000 US last season, wouldn’t say how much he signed for, but it was a little north of $2.7 million over the term of the deal.
Yeah, I think RNH goes number one and then the Oilers pray like hell that Larsson falls but accept Hamilton as the backup plan.
ReplyDeleteThis contract could have been worse. Jones had a pretty awful year based on the run of play but at least the contract isn't crippling. Normally you'd let these types walk, but cap space means more to some teams than others. It isn't worth much to the Oilers right now.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the breakdown WG.
ReplyDeleteYeah, it looks like White would probably slot into our top 4 which says as much about our depth as it does about him :p
I don't mind the Jersey trade either as LT outlined.
A number 4 overall and 1 year of dead cap space in Rolston plus a possibly useful though overpriced 2nd pairing dman for 1 year of Hemsky, Cogs and a 5th.
I like Hemsky as much as the next Oiler fan, but next season we're not 1 Ales Hemsky away from anything.
As per Boondock, I'd guess you're right though I'm not sure I would want that outcome.
I'd have to agree... RNH and if both are still left, whichever SMB likes out of Hamilton/Larsson. I don't think you can go wrong with either, and the Pronger/Pietrangelo comps for Hamilton are pretty interesting.
ReplyDeleteThat would be some trade. Of course, I can't see any way Rolston waives his NMC (or is it a no-trade?) to come to Edmonton. I've always liked White even though he's not the player he once was, but he'd still help out a tonne in this town.
ReplyDeleteHaving 2 of the top 4 in a draft with a clear drop after 5, and a total of 4 in the first 31. Talk about a pipeline.
he'd still help out a tonne in this town
ReplyDeleteI'm glad we're keeping it metric around here.
If Edmonton sends Hemsky down the river then it is at least consistent. I don't care what the return is.
scryon - a sad soothsayer
test
ReplyDeleteHasn't Rolston been threatened by Lou he would go to the minors? As bad as Edmonton is, it is better than the minors. Show up, pretend to be happy then quietly ask to be traded at the deadline for a 6th rounder to a contender. Sort of like Eric Cole. Could work, better than riding the bus in the A with Souray and Redden.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I am surprised nobody has mentioned, is the assumption that if they can swing this trade they will go for Larsson or Hamilton. Why not pick RNH with number one , Couturier with number four, then trade Gagner for a more developed high end dman like Bogosian or Luke Schenn to a team that needs young offensive forwards like Atlanta or Toronto?
The belief that dmen aren't as safe a pick as a lottery pick shouldn't change just because you have two lottery picks. I would still rather pick two forwards, especially two centers.
Given that Colorado picks second and Florida third I think Larsson and Couturier will both be there. Right now Landeskog and Huberdeau are ahead of Larsson and Couturier most places I look, especially SC. Maybe Colorado would take Larsson but to me that is less than 50-50 and no way Florida takes a dman with Gudbranson growing up in junior.
Woodguy how confident are you in that rumour?
ReplyDeleteDOesn't make sense the Oilers would have to throw in the 19th pick. Taking back 8 million in bad salary is worth a lot. They get Hemsky AND 4 million in cap space to sign someone else... if they can re-sign Hemsky for 5 years the trade works for them. If whoever we draft is a star player for 15 years , it works for us.
I guess we have the space to take this chance but I'm just hoping he can make a difference penalty killing and that this year's scoring chance numbers were the exception rather than the rule.
ReplyDeleteThe only really good thing I can say about this is it probably assures that a guy like Curtis Hamilton will start and finish the year in OKC.
I can't see any way Rolston waives his NMC
ReplyDeletePJO made a good point earlier in the thread:
Don't see the NTC's being much of a factor. NJ can use threat of sending those players to waivers (and the Oilers pick them up).
They both have No Trade Clauses, not No Movement Clauses. Big difference in regards to waivers.
Rolston was waived and recalled last year when Lou was playing his cap games.
Obviously he had no takers.
Woodguy how confident are you in that rumour?
ReplyDeleteNot very.
Just hubub.
Rolston has a NTC but presumably they could get around that by waiving him (I think he cleared waivers last season). EDM could just agree to take him.
ReplyDeleteThe group lauding Jones as something beyond a fringe NHLer are probably the same geniuses with the pitchforks out for Tom Gilbert because he's "soft and overpaid".
Or maybe its the same group that constantly screams for FA overpays, is now upset about a supposed overpay :)
I like Gilbert and Jones BTW.
The Glencross and Smyth mistakes were probably in the back of managment's minds on Jones. They probably figured it was worth paying an extra $200 K a year to keep him.
DOesn't make sense the Oilers would have to throw in the 19th pick. Taking back 8 million in bad salary is worth a lot. They get Hemsky AND 4 million in cap space to sign someone else... if they can re-sign Hemsky for 5 years the trade works for them. If whoever we draft is a star player for 15 years , it works for us.
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
MCKENZIE confirming Jones' contract is a 1.5 mil cap hit.
ReplyDeletehttp://twitter.com/#!/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/75050125122211840
Jones contract is fine. The Brule deal was fine too but he had a terrible year but it's not killing the team's cap and you can easily bury guys on cheap two year contracts in the AHL if need be.
ReplyDeleteThat 4th overall deal is interesting. You're basically getting RNH and one of Couturier, Landeskog, or Larsson.
Unless they want to go a little off board and take Hamilton or if they really like Huberdeau.
another take on the NewJersey rumour...
ReplyDeleteOttawa has said they would like to move up.
If the Oilers can get #4, would they trade #4 and #31 for Ottawa's #6 and Nashville's pick?
Would give them 4 first round picks. Now that's a rebuild
Most of the speculation I've read suggests EDM is looking for a F and a D with their first two picks, but if they do end up with two top 10 picks I wouldn't be too quick to discount the possibility that they select 2 F's.
ReplyDeleteAdding RNH and one of the other top F's would give the appearance of a pretty good looking young forward group, and maybe they decide to try picking up a guy like Ballard on the cheap from the trade market?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteOops, I forgot to add that part of the reason that I think picking 2 F's might be more likely than some think would be the probable inclusion of Hemsky (or maybe Gagner?) in the deal to get the pick, thus opening another spot in the F group long term.
ReplyDeleteAnyone remember what what did Burke do to get the Sedins at #2 and #3 in 1999? Seems like a similar draft with no clear cut #1 but you sure as heck hope the quality is better - 1999 was a baaaaaaaad year.
ReplyDeleteIf EDM do the NJ deal, then it probably makes us a worse team next season. However if they can add Carter from Philly for next seasons 1st, and swap Gagner for Bogosian somehow, the rebuild is complete.
ReplyDeleteCarter, Horcoff, RNH, Couturier, Lander makes a 2014 or 15 cup contender down the middle.
AsiaOil, Burke traded Brian McCabe and Vancouver's 2000 1st round pick for Chicago's 1999 1st round pick.
ReplyDeleteDeal made sense for Chicago since they got a top 4 defenceman on the rise and a 1st round pick in an apparently better draft in exchange for a 1st round pick in a bad draft year. Since Chicago and Vancouver were comparatively similar in competitiveness (picking sequentially in both 1999 and 2000) it should have been a win.
Of course the Hawks then proceeded to almost immediately trade McCabe for Alexander Karpotsev who was entering the swan song phase of his career, and then picked Pavel Vorobiev 11th overall the following year which was pretty weak outside the top picks (Heatley, Gaborik).
A top line of Parise Hemmer and Kovy would be hard to pass up.
ReplyDeleteBrule - the deal was not a bad one when it was made. Brule has some crazy unknown health issue that seems somewhat serious. He did not have that when signed. The deal turned out particularly bad because of this, but if Hall had come down with Gilbert Brule Disease, then he would have been a bad pick - correct?
ReplyDeleteJones - He got better as the season went on (someone - Bruce or JW - broke down Jones' season by quarters and he improved a lot over the year). He is a bit of an overpay and part of that is because of the fans and the memories of Glencross.
JFJ - JFJ is done - book it. I know he has been given an extended 'welcome' on this team, but I suspect that even the Oiler's hopes have faded.
Khabibulin - MVP! - no seriously, I think the Oilers may try to save some face and some $ by running with him as a backup to Dubnyk. The whole "starting job is his to lose" is just respectful verbiage to an aging veteran who is done. They may pick up someone else and allow Khabi to sit in the pressbox/prison cell throughout the season.
A big no if it's Larsson (doesn't bring the offense)
ReplyDelete?????????????????????????????????
The two best pre draft Offensive Dmen numbers SEL history?
Hedman .3ppg
Larsson .3PPG
Oh are you basing it on the fact his team gave his PP time from the year before to Dmen who were going to be there after this year.
Brule has the disease of any small man attempting to play like he's 6'3" 215 pounds.
ReplyDeleteI believe Theo Fluery managed to overcome that disease after a long uphill battle. However, he lapsed into alcohol and other substance abuse problems during his struggles.
ReplyDeleteFor some reason I always liked that little basterd. Kinda hoped Brule would turn out into our own version of Fleury...you know, without the baggage.
Brule was able to dominate juniors with his hard charging style - then he tried the same approach in the NHL and instantly received his first of many, many injuries.
ReplyDeleteFleury was a great player. Brule I like, and want him to succeed, but he's just too brittle and tries too hard to make big hits, thus causing yet another trip to the hospital.
Rickibear: ???
ReplyDeleteHedman:
21 points in 43 (0,48)
Larsson:
9 Points in 39 (0,24)
And god damn, stop it with the ''PP time stolen'', Rundblad and Erixon will probably be gone too. He just got shifted by them.
I am more concerned about the autoimmune disease Brule seemed to have last year. It was more than just not having his flu shot.
ReplyDeleteIs JFJ really gone? Wouldn't they offer him a 2 way contract at a minimum? Then they just have to have the guts to waive him. If he gets it together in the AHL they can always bring him up again.
SMac is a UFA. They might run short on ruffians.
Anything going on at the combine today?
I did forget how this makes JFJ less necessary. There might be a small upside to the signing. But overall it is still going to be one to regret.
ReplyDeleteThis will be made even more noteworthy if (and likely when) the Oil buy-out Brule this summer.
deessig - what Herve Villechaize (Tattoo) shouts when he wants a smoke.
Brule's current status is very likely due to the wonderful management in Columbus. They rushed him to the show as an 18 year old that should have played one more year in Junior then one season in the A to adjust.
ReplyDeleteThe result? He never adjusted to play in the big leagues, bringing his same reckless abandon from Junior to the NHL. Started off gangbusters with 6 points in 6 games until his sternum got absolutely crushed in a horrific injury. Never been the same since.
Brule has never learned to tone it down, and survive in the faster, bigger, and more physical NHL. Should have been 20+ with experience in the AHL before he even stepped foot on NHL ice. Amazes me how those two idiots after Atlanta and Columbus are regarded as hockey 'experts' and can spew excrement onto the airwaves.
I can only imagine if you could transplant Brule into the body of Jacques. He'd still run around like a chicken with his head half off, but bloody hell he'd have an effect when he hit something at least.
The #19 pick is probably included in the rumor because NJ still has to be stripped for the first Kovalchuk signing.
ReplyDeletenewielan - There's a newfie joke in there..
There is something more serious wrong with Brule. If it was a knee injury or concussion or something caused by his aggressive play on the ice, we would have had some indication of what it was - even a vague reference to a 'lower body injury'.
ReplyDeleteSomeone mentioned autoimmune and I suspect its something like that colitis or something. Strange though that we haven't been told what it is. Makes me wonder if its one of those issues that is a bit sensitive or if perhaps he is just a bit more private about his health issues.
Anyway, I doubt whatever he is facing is due to injury.
FPB, way to gloss over the fact that Rundblad was drafted 2 years ago and is a full 2 years older than Larsson. Also Rundblad had 10 points his draft year playing in limited (sheltered minutes) and only posted 13 points the season after his draft until his current explosion.
ReplyDeleteLarsson comparatively on his draft year was playing 18 minutes a night while having an injury affected season. Rail all you want about it, we don't have complete ice time figures, but the fact remains Larsson was leading his team with TOI around 23-24 minutes a night during the playoffs. And Skelleftea fans will attest to the fact that Larsson was used as the shutdown D, with some 2nd PP minutes, while Rundblad deservedly ran the offense.
An injured Larsson was also arguably Sweden's best player in the WHJC. How many points did Pajaarvi put up in his draft year as a forward again? Keep in mind, playing shutdown D in a good men's league at 18 while still putting up some points is amazing. Everyone in Sweden seems to think he's comparable or better than Hedman at the same age that's a helluva complement, Hedman is killing for a 20 year old.
I'm a bit tired of you comparing Larsson to Rundblad while omitting the age difference and the relative time on ice and point production stats for their draft years and concurrently the last 2 years.
I still like Couturier, and the fact that the kid had mono to start the season and still crushed it, posting quality 2 seasons in a row shows him to be top notch.
I still believe Larsson is the best pick, and Couturier is a solid at 2nd, but to each his own.
Oh, to context it a bit better, both Rundblad and Erixon went in the first round a full 2 years ago, and are both 2 years older than Larsson.
ReplyDeleteI don't see how you can knock a guy that leads his team in ice-time in the playoffs, but wasn't played in the premier offensive roles, because he got outscoured by two 1st round defencemen 2 years older than him? yeah he got 'shifted' by Rundblad and Erixon alright, in the same way an older and more experienced Stamkos drafted 2 years earlier 'shifted' Hall this season.
The Brule thing is mysterious. To me, it has to involve one of the body's homeostasis systems (endocrine, nervous, immune) that flares up/goes wonky on him or something. He would play, then out, then play then out, strange. Something that is controlled/managed rather than being healed.
ReplyDeleteI work in health and totally understand the privacy angle here. I have to sign a yearly code of conduct, some of which involves strict patient confidentiality. It actually amazes me how much of athlete's health related issues are made public.
Rickibear: ???
ReplyDeleteHedman:
21 points in 43 (0,48)
Larsson:
9 Points in 39 (0,24)
Hedman
07-08 39GM 2G 2A 4PTs
08-09 43GM 7G 14A 21PTS
PRe draft 82GM 25PTs .305PPG
Larsson
09-10 49GM 4G 13A 17PTS
10-11 37GM 1G 8A 9PTS
Pre Draft 86GM 26Pts .302PPG
Sure would have liked to see him get the same role he had at 16.
FPB: yes the role does make a diffrence. You have been real solid. Lately. But clearly your brain does not work past one year. you the what have you done for me lately.
Let me try that! The #4 for Hemsky! Hell yeah! The #4 pick for a 40 point a season guy? really!
Where did this rumour of Hemsky-and-a-first to New Jersey for #4 and $8.5 worth of washed up players come from?
ReplyDeleteThis Hemsky rumour if real doesn't seem smart to me unless Tambellini knows Hemsky won't resign.
ReplyDeleteWith Penner and Hemsky gone, the Oilers' forwards in the (debatable) prime hockey years of 27-32 yoa will be this: Ryan Jones.
Jordan Eberle becomes the de facto #1 RW. The #4 is tempting, but Hemsky (or a real equivalent) is necessary to let the kids develop. Horc and the kids will have talent, but it takes more than that to win consistently in the west.
Certainly the #19 can't go back if the Oilers are helping Lou do a wash sale.
I don't like Jones or Jacques, but I would rather have them in the lineup this season than Hartikainen.
ReplyDeleteI thought the Kid played well in his call up, but I'd rather see him spend another year in the AHL getting big minutes then playing 5-10 in Edmonton.
His development would probably be better served getting big PP minutes learning to play a Ryan Smyth role, and rounding out his two-way game.
Henry,
ReplyDeleteCheck the comments of the last thread. Some guy in jail, and LT has heard the same thing through his impressive connections (which may or may not involve the correctional system).
Its likely the same source as the Blum for Smid and Gagner for Bogosian trades.
In other words, bunk.
Uni: Well what's the difference between 2 1st rounders and having 25 years old veterans in front of you?
ReplyDeleteI don't think your comparison with Stamkos is fair. Larsson was producing more than Rundblad AND Erixon at a younger age. I think it's difficult to put the knock all on the ''role''. Maybe it's more like ''maybe he wasn't that good offensively''. I'm not saying Larsson is not worth it, just that he might be more of a 40 point d-man with 2 way play than a 60 point guy like Lidstrom.
Rickibear: If some CHL player saw his 16 years old production cut in half there would be a bell ringing loud and clear. Why the difference?
Horc and the kids will have talent, but it takes more than that to win consistently in the west.
ReplyDeleteGiven the Oilers have basically none of what it takes to win in the west, I'm happy enough with them stockpiling talent and filling in the rest later.
Ducey,
ReplyDeleteThanks dude. This rumour was sending me to the Wild Turkey. LT should stay away from jail.
Bourbon is still a good idea.
Even if Hemmer wants to re-sign, which scenario has better odds at this point:
ReplyDeleteA) The #4 pick being a bust.
B) Hemmer starting to play 80 games a year again during his next contract.
We just lost him for the year (again) on a play where nothing happened to him. Let's not pretend that re-signing him is anything but a massive risk.
I really don't get the space being wasted here on whether Jones is being overpaid. By what...$200k...$400k? What meaningful impact do these sort of $ have on the big picture if any? It's the top end contracts being paid to underachievers, while wasting time and effort on harpooning whales that are far bigger issues.
ReplyDeleteSigning Jones, a guy in the minority as one who actually "wants" to play in this sinkhole, isn't a problem for me at all.
but Hemsky (or a real equivalent) is necessary to let the kids develop
ReplyDeleteSure, but how does he help from the DL?
Haha. I remember this supposed to be a ''weak draft'' by scouts. And was called a fool when I said the opposite.
ReplyDeleteWell damn me if I a ''weak'' draft is one where you can possibily get a 100+ point guy at the 7 slot, and see some 80+ point guys in the 20 range.
Commonfan:
ReplyDeleteYou know, I'll go with A. That said, I'm happy with 70 games from most guys in today's game anyway. Hemsky is nicked up, no doubt about it. Injury to the draft pick is a risk too and one you face before the kid can be productive. Hemsky for the #4 is probably good for the oilers, but the rest of that stuff gets Lou off the hook for his spending spree and pisses me off.
I think the Brule contract was stupid because the Oilers knew he needed to be babysat in order to put up those numbers - at least EV linemate-wise - and that wasn't possible considering they were gonna give all kinds of TOI to the kids.
ReplyDeleteSo the 67 contract ran counterproductive to the on-the-job training they also had in mind for the youngsters.
Count me as another guy who's wary of using top picks on dmen.
FPB, I'd say the 2 former first rounders with 2 more years experience are better than many of the 25 year old vets on a team. Also considering how good they are it's very telling that Larsson played so much in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteIf Larsson was indeed given the push defensively while the two older guys got a push offensively, that seems to indicate that he was trusted by his coach more, and they decided to utilize the two other guys in offensive roles.
I can see the red flag a mile away, but the fact that Larsson was right up there in TOI says that his coach wanted him out there logging big minutes, and he was wasn't being sheltered. Coupled with two solid upper classmen getting the PP time, I'd say his regression is understandable. Keep in mind that he he put up the same numbers his running mates did in their draft years, while playing apparently much tougher minutes.
I really would like some solid TOIs, for now all we have to go on is what a bunch of Skelleftea fans have posted on mangled Googled translated forums. Their indication is Larsson was sheltered quite a bit as a 16 year old, but the last season he was cast into a shutdown role.
I wish Larsson had just crushed it this year offensively as well, so there'd be no speculation, but Skelleftea was blessed with a very talented young core on D, and D points are largely impacted by the PP, much more so than forwards.
I think the Stamkos-Hall allusion is accurate. Larsson isn't out there lining up against Juniors, he's a teenager being given very tough assignments in a quality men's league. His running mates are two guys who're very highly rated themselves and 2 years older with 2 years more experience. I'd be surprised if Hall doesn't 'crush' his rookie season in 2 years time.
Put another way, if Logan Couture got tossed out against the 1st toughs instead of the 3rd and 4th like this season in a year, would you be surprised if his offensive numbers regressed? If his offensive game regressed a bit and he came out on top in that new role would you count it as a step backwards or forwards? Now have Couture do that while going from his 16-17 to 17-18 year old seasons, and you have yourself a helluva prospect.
To wit, I'd be very happy with Larsson as 1st overall, if he can control the flow of a game and still chip in 40 points a season. Personally I do think he's more of the 50-60 perennial type while still taking care of his own zone. He has the potential of a true #1 franchise defenceman.
We're all just guessing at this point anyway. It'll be very interesting to revisit this draft 5 then 10 years out. Lord I hope the Oil get the right player. It'd be a very bitter pill having Colorado run out RNH/Larsson/Couturier or whoever else to kill their division rivals for a decade. And I don't think I can stand another Parise type whining topic if NJ grabs a better player than the Oildrop.
Uni: Fair enough.
ReplyDeleteLet's just get the five 1st picks and draft them all.
How about the 1st and Cogs for COL's 2 and 11.
ReplyDeleteHemsky for #4.
The Oilers would have 2, 4, 11, 19 and 31.
just that he might be more of a 40 point d-man with 2 way play than a 60 point guy like Lidstrom.
ReplyDeleteBig minutes;
Tough Comp;
Shutdown Dmen(above League avg);
40+ Points:
Suter
Yandle
Doughty
Peterangelo
taller than 6'1"
Peterangelo.
Yeah lets not take larsson!
Rickibear: Dumb. That would be the ceiling, not the instant product.
ReplyDeleteLike saying Nugent Hopkins will be Henrik Sedin/Savard/etc automatically.
There are good arguments for Larsson.
ReplyDeleteMy concerns:
1) None of those guys you cited went #1 overall (in fact most of the best Dmen tend to come out of the second round);
2)Larssen seemed to develop a lot of injury concerns this season.
I'd rather grab an elite forward first and try and nab the Dmen later on.
History shows us that you are not going to get an elite sniper very often in the second round, but you might find a dman.
Larsson had the best pre draft offensive numbers in SEL history. Played big minutes shutdown in the third toughest league that is 2.7 times harder NHLE than the CHL.
ReplyDeleteThe young D men listed were drafted high based performance relative to History.
So you have the best young dman for p/GM in SEL history who played a Primary shutdown Role in a league 1.73 harder NHLE than the AHL.
And your advocating drafting a player #1 who has a points from G ratio below 30% which relates to a multitidue of draft bust as the core of that type of group.
the most current example.
Sam Gagner:
He dominated a super series of his pers.
Had 2.2PPG in Junior which said he should be a 100 point player. however the trend for below 30% from goal guys is to be only 50% of NHLE. Is Sam currently a 50 point guy yes.
So if trend holds: You are advocating drafting a young man who might put on the weight needed to not be physically dominated in the league. who will likely be a 45point player in NHL based on past history including Gagner and Kariya.
To expect him to be better than Gagner when RNH is 1.5PPG and Gagner is 2.2ppg.
Kool Aid Baby!
Rickibear: I'm advocating the 6''4 +90 points guy. Aka the 90% chance of putting up 70 points in one season in the NHL guy.
ReplyDeleteIf it's 2,7 times harder, than I assume that Larsson would have put up around 45 points in the CHL.
(And equivalences, last time we checked seemed pretty shaky)
Anyway. Defenseman are historically a lower bet than forwards. Big forwards with +90 points are practically the safest bet possible. That's all there is behind this.
Maybe we should draft Tim Erixon at 19th overall.
ReplyDeleteThat is, if he re-enters the draft. The Flames have less than 48 hours to sign him to a contract.
PJO: Interesting. That is certainly on the weird side. Good tracking d-man not resigned. Would he be the 1st guy to possibly re-enter and be drafted in the 1st round twice?
ReplyDeleteI would have been very curious to see what Larson would have done in the CHL. It's really too bad that no one emerged as the dominant clear 1st overall screaming pick me.
ReplyDeleteI'd be happy with Larson or Couturier, with obvious heavy bias for the guy the Swedes are calling the best prospect since Forsberg. Last season I thought a shot at either of them was a pipe dream, but I'll be a monkey's uncle if the astute Oilers management didn't pull it off.
The again I was a big fan of Voracek and Nilsson, so what do I know. This is certainly going to be one of the most interesting drafts in recent years.
PJO, really? That's beyond odd. I thought Erixon was signed ages ago. I'd be very surprised if they don't get him inked in time; especially with their purported lack of prospect depth.
ReplyDeleteFPB, I don't know if that's ever happened. Wondered where Nash would go myself if he hadn't been traded.
Kariya was a 45-50 point guy? Is my memory really that shot? I would've sworn he cleared 90 points at least once in his career.
ReplyDelete@ Henry
ReplyDeleteI think the Jersey rumour is an interesting one. Cap space is a valuable commodity in this league and if the Oilers can get a lottery pick because they're willing to give cap relief to a team that really needs it then I think you've got to look at that.
Erixson should interest the Oilers as they need some young dmen to grow with their forwards and Erixson would fit that bill.
Is Sam currently a 50 point guy yes.
ReplyDeleteWow, 21 years old and already capped out at 50 points. Somebody should let him know. Math says there is no point in trying, Sam.
So if the Nuge would have scored 5 less assists and went 31 70 101 he would be a better prospect than he is now, because the math would have put him at +30% goals?
How about Hemmer, he only scored on 27% of his points the year after he was drafted. We should have known he would have busted.
Ricki, I like math too. Its a useful filter but there are plenty of exceptions to the rule. (Marc Savard has had a nice career but for the concussions - he scored 30.9% of the time in junior. Jumbo Joe had 33% of his points by way of goals. We gonna get caught up over 3%?)
The more you post though, the more I think the Oilers should be trading down.
Ducey: i will half file a firing pin on a shotgun. that way there is a 40% chance it will not fire. Still a 60% negative outcome.
ReplyDeleteI will bring it over and you can load it, put it in your mouth and pull the trigger.
Most common sense people would say that is silly.
So do not pull the fuxxxng trigger on our first pick!
Fine. Make me look shit up. Kariya had two seasons over 100, one of 99 and three more over 80. If that's Samwise's future, or RNH's... I think I am okay with it.
ReplyDeleteKariya came from the NCAA. Idk what the comparison is supposed to be.
ReplyDeleteKariya was a 45-50 point guy? Is my memory really that shot? I would've sworn he cleared 90 points at least once in his career.
ReplyDeletethe whole fear of the 30% guy is the reduction relative to nhlE.
Kariya played in Boston his draft year he was 2.56PPG in a league 1.55 times better than the CHL.
Which translates to 3.97 ppg in the CHL. 3.97 X .62 = 2.48PPG NHLE
Career best 1.4PPG
The regression rate relative to NHLE is 45 to 55%
Gagner nhle curve says he should have been based on age.
18 years 52 pts
21 years 120 pts I allways wondered why he did not progress even closely relative to the curve.
This trend says bye 50% of NHLE.
Daigle: 2.6pp X .56 = 1.4PPG NHLE
Career best .7PPG 50% NHLE regression.
Working Back:
2007: Gagner
2004: Chipchura
2002: Ninimaki
1999: Stefan
1994: Bonsignore
1993: Daigle, kariya
1992: Hulbig
See which ORG is Dumb Ass when it comes to this.
Marc Savard:
ReplyDelete2.1PPG CHL
Expected NHLE @ 22 1.6PPG
Actual .85PPG @ 23 53% of expected.
Ricki, I'm not entirely sure what ur doing... but I suspect the math doesn't hold. There is already an NHLE for NCAA and SEL without translating into CHL #s.
ReplyDeleteThe whole point is when I look at the 30 % player. the trend says bad. 30%g Players
ReplyDelete18G (135th) from a 60pt (48TH)
15G (169th) from a 50pt (98TH)
12G (214TH)from a 40pt (165TH)
spoiler: how do you project NHL points versus CHL points. League translation.
ReplyDeleteKariya got 2.56PPG in a league with league translation of (shit) .41 not .44. how does that equate in CHL points. .41/.29 =1.41 times better.
2.56 X 1.41 = 3.6ppg X .62 = 2.23
38% regression .
I do not want the first pick of the draft on a player around the 30% of points from Goals.
If I were thinking about drafting a player with a high assist:goal ratio, I'd first be concerned with whether they were the one generating the points, as opposed to riding the success of a teammate. Of that list you've provided, only Daigle, Kariya and (I'll add) Thornton led their teams in points while generating that high ratio. I think that's a pretty good indication of their role in generating those points.
ReplyDeleteKariya and Thornton are great NHL players. Daigle was a huge bust, but he put up 137 points in 53 games in his draft year, including 45 goals. Hardly a stretch at 1st overall and tough to think of him as an assists-only player with that 0.85 goals per game number.
I appreciate your effort in trying to predict where these kids will end up, but if you're broadening your comparison so that we're looking at RNH (69 games, 106 points) and Niinimaki (16 games, 6 points) as comparables then something is wrong.