Long time readers of this blog know that I have (at various times) suggested the Oilers might consider trading Smid. Reasons given by others suggest I'm impatient or that Smid's abilities are too subtle for the aged to grasp.
Neither is the reason. My reasoning has to do with "giving up something of value when getting something of value in return" and "replacement level." Simply put, Ladislav Smid is a pretty famous hockey player--still young, still affordable--who does things that many other players in the blue pool can duplicate.
He's an ideal trade asset. His years of playing in other rinks have shown opposition General Managers that he's mobile, tough, healthy and willing. Should the Oilers trade him, Smid's range of skills are reasonably easy to replace at similar salary cost. I don't dislike Smid, I like him. Can't wait to see what he brings.
Ladislav Smid 10-11
- 5x5 points per 60: 0.43 (6th among Oil D)
- 5x4 points per 60: 1.04 (6th among Oil D)
- Qual Comp: 4th toughest among D
- Qual Team: 5th best available among D
- Corsi Rel: 2.3 (3rd best among D)
- Zone Start: 48.6% (2nd toughest among D)
- Zone Finish: 51.1% (2nd best among D)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 48 shots/0 goals
- Boxcars: 78gp, 0-10-10
- Plus Minus: -10 on a team that was -52
- What do these numbers tell us? A year ago, Smid played easy minutes with quality help and had the third best CorsiRel among the defensemen. This season he played tougher minutes with lesser 'mates and delivered the 3rd best CorsiRel again. That's certainly progress, especially when we factor in Zone Start. I do wonder about his qual team number (played with Gilbert 35% of the time) but this is a solid line for a defensive defenseman.
- What about his expected plus minus? He should have expected to finish around -17. His -10 is a good number considering he's playing 2nd pairing minutes.
- How could these numbers be better? I don't know. Smid doesn't bring a lot of offense so 10 points is good and the CorsiRel is very nice. This was a good NHL season for Smid.
- Anything else? He was healthy for the entire season, that's a very good sign. He missed 21 games one year ago due to a neck injury so a full season goes a long way to allaying fears he is injury prone.
- You thought he'd deliver more offensively. Sure did. He had 25 assists in the AHL at age 19, and that's a nice rookie number (it was second on the team). But he's settled in as a "stay at home" defender with the usual 10 points and he has no shot from the point at all. Added to that are his rushes up ice where he skates smoothly through the opposition and then gives them the puck. He's like a mailman, delivers every time.
- Why don't you just say it? You hate him. No, I don't. I just don't see the point in placing a premium on his player type. Smid is an extreme defensive defenseman, which means he needs to be an outstanding even and PK performer to be worth a lot.
- Let's try this another way. What do you like about him? I like Smid's size and he's really settled down in terms of positioning the last couple of seasons. Smid has his slip-ups, but in the post lockout era pretty much every defenseman is going to look silly a few times every year. Smid didn't have as many of those kinds of moments this year. He still has a tendency to leave his partner high and dry (although his suicide passes seem to be a thing of the past) and his sorties into the opponents end usually end with him getting back in time. He also seemed to have some success as a penalty killer later into the season.
- What don't you like about him? Less and less. He doesn't have a large range of skills, but if he can help the PK and play 2nd pairing minutes while surviving then Smid should have a career in a depth role.
- But not in Edmonton. I think he should be one of the players considered expendable. Remember when he played with Lubo? That was a perfect role for him. Stay at home, make sure there's someone back if things get crazy. I don't think you should pay a lot for that role and I also think that when a team calls after him it's worth thinking about; he's not a vital cog in the machine and his skill set is available in ample amounts.
- You've wanted him traded forever and the Oilers never do it. They're too smart. Quite right. Keep Smid, Trade Lubo. We could make a sign.
08-09 5x5 per 60m: 0.80
09-10 5x5 per 60m: 0.50
10-11 5x5 per 60m: 0.43
By the Numbers
08-09 5x4 per 60m: nil
09-10 5x4 per 60m: 14.40
10-11 5x4 per 60m: 1.04
Prediction for 2010-11: 53gp, 0-9-9 (.170)
Actual 2010: 78gp, 0-10-10 (.128)
Stay-at-home D
I don't see that as a reason to trade him. The team has set Hall as the core of a rebuild. Assuming that core will be "on-line" and producing in 3-4 years, Smid will be entering his prime at exactly the right time. So why trade him? He seems to be a key asset.
ReplyDeleteWhy do you hate Smid?
ReplyDeleteI"m surprised you didn't mention Smid's penchant for getting killed with a big check.
ReplyDeleteAt some point Smid's head will leave the rest of his body if he can't protect himself.
I think he took a while to recover from the concussion that douchebag Kesler gave him with an elbow 150 feet from the puck in front of the ref (no call, standard... fuck you Gillis. Just fuck you.)
He learned to move the puck up by skating, draw in the fore-check, then a quickly button hook and make an outlet pass from Vis (love Vis).
For that reason alone, they should keep him.
security word = surulain
Are you suru lain?
WG: I didn't mention the protection issue because it always seems like piling on. Smid's inability to protect himself seems to be real.
ReplyDeleteI think there's a rule for being a popular blogger or radio host: you have to take the occasional odd stance that gets everyone to scratch their head, just to keep a little mystery about your ideas. If LT didn't have his Smid weirdness everyone would think he's just some really nice guy with standard ideas about hockey. This is LT's Rush Limbaugh flourish. :-Þ
ReplyDeleteI swear to God I'm sincere. Seriously. I like him fine, but he can be replaced. Lubo? Not so much.
ReplyDeleteIf the Oilers goal is to cover off the 4-5D and THEN address the top guys then Smid is your man. But if there's an NHL team willing to give value in return then ST should do it.
Moment of the year was when Smid went face first in the glass, cutting himself when no one else was insight. He seems, not injury prone, but more accident prone.
ReplyDeleteSmid is a defensive defenseman, doesn't piss a drop offensively, (he scores bi-annually), poser tough. Has some good physical tools, very little mental tools for the game.
I think he's expendable and the type of player that one eventually tries to imporve on. Smid is more trade bait then Gilbert atm.
Smid is just one of those guys you can't quite figure out why he can't produce shit on offense.
ReplyDeleteGood movement, good passing ability, good reads... seriously how the?!
If Smid's skills are easily replaceable, hence making him expendable, Isn't it safe to assume he isn't going to bring much of a return?
ReplyDeletePlus he's cheap and still young. He should stay
Interesting that he's a RFA. That probably drops his trade value to about nothing right now.
ReplyDeleteSmid made basically third pairing money last year,and played the last part of the season on the top pair with Gilbert.With going goaless last year he probably isn't in line for much if any raise.He would be a very useful 5-6 d-man and can move up to 4 if needed.I just don't see the need to move what little depth we have.
ReplyDeleteI am here to tell you that LT used to LOVE Smid.
ReplyDeleteLOVE:)
Anyway, as I said earlier, we've wasted enough GP on him and it's the point where we know it most likely won't pay off.
In other news, the Canuck cheerleading by the CBC broadcasting crew is out of hand.
Smid will never score enough to get a big payday. He is in the right age cluster for the "rebuild", seems to like it here and is a good soldier. I can see no issue with having him being the defensive conscience on the third pairing for the next decade.
ReplyDeleteDennis:
ReplyDeleteyou should read the comment section from Freidmans blog,all the Canuck fans accuse CBC of being anti-canuck.
There was a MSM article last week talking about how Canada has adopted the flames, Oilers, Habs, Sens as 'Canadas Team' during their respective playoff runs, and how nobody in Canada are doing such with the Dys.
ReplyDeleteYears of douche fans and douche players apparently has taken it's toll in the forum of public opinion.
Daniel... HENRIK... DANIEL.... HENNRRIICKK... ORGASM!!!!
Lapierre just reminds Canada of why we collectively despise that brutal franchise
ReplyDeleteI hate the Canucks so much I can't even watch the games.
ReplyDeleteI have this impression that Smid was very, very, good after he checked himself unconscious in the last third of the season. No way to check this is there?
Lapierre is one of the bigger chickenshits out there. Not out of place on the ol' Dys.
ReplyDeleteIf you need another reason to hate the Dys read this from Steve Simmons blog about Gillis.
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.canoe.ca/sportszone/
City and Katz group agree on framework for rink:
ReplyDeletePress release:
City and Katz Group agree on agreement framework to build arena
Framework will enable negotiations on a formal Master Agreement
City Council has approved an agreement framework between the City and the Katz Group to build a new downtown arena. The framework sustains NHL hockey in Edmonton for 35 years, supports downtown revitalization and limits the City's risk.
The terms of the framework will form the basis for the City and the Katz Group to negotiate a formal Master Agreement. Both parties can now also begin to pursue additional funding sources.
"We believe this framework is fair for both sides and reflects what we heard from Edmontonians," says City Manager Simon Farbrother. "This framework allows us to move forward with this project and ensures that we will continue to align our efforts with what the community has told us are Edmonton's priorities for this important project."
"From the beginning we have approached this project with the twin objectives of creating a major engine to drive the revitalization of downtown and of creating a model for the long term sustainability of the Oilers in Edmonton," says Katz Group Executive Vice President Bob Black. "City Council's decision is a watershed moment that puts us on a path towards achieving these objectives. There remains a lot of hard work ahead to conclude a definitive agreement and we are anxious to do so as soon as possible."
The framework closely reflects the terms and conditions outlined by Council in the motion passed at their April 6th meeting (www.edmonton.ca/downtownarena). Among the key highlights:
The price for the arena building is set at $450M
The price for the arena building is set at $450M
The City's contribution to the building is $125M
The Katz Group will contribute $100M
$125M will come from a user-paid facility fee
The City will own the building and land
The Katz Group will operate the building and be responsible for all maintenance, upgrades, operating and capital expense costs
The Oilers will remain in Edmonton for at least 35 years
This framework does not constitute a final and binding agreement. Both parties will now begin to work on the Master Agreement to advance the project further, including by working to secure the remaining funds required.
Way to have the presser at 10pm on a Wednesday.
I don't think there will be many there to cover it. Modern Family is on.
ReplyDeleteWay to have the presser at 10pm on a Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteIts funny. They've been very forthcoming about everything else so far.
"Take THAT Ben Eager"
ReplyDelete-Jim Hughson
sigh....
Its funny. They've been very forthcoming about everything else so far.
ReplyDeleteI was particularly impressed with how they proved they were losing money.
Oilers gave me an "extension" on renewing my seats.
I almost did, then remembered how taken aback Laforge was when asked that the Oilers prove losses if they wanted 350MM in subsidies to keep the team here.
City is buying the land from Katz for the rink too. Lordy.
Andy Grabia is suggesting that Katz eventually puts forth that part of his $100MM will be for the naming rights of the rink too. I bet he's right.
Smid is still young, improving and relatively cheap - and above all - appears to be one of those near-term "real NHL players" that this team lacks. Has he developed less than many expected? - sure. But as Dennis has often said - as long as he's not getting paid serious coin - there's no reason to deal him unless a team really wants him and is willing to pay a premium.
ReplyDelete$100 million from Katz and $125 million ticket tax from the users of the building (many from outside Edmonton) means the city is getting a brand new spanking arena (which it will own) for 50% off, more if it can get the province and the feds to kick in some dollars.
ReplyDeleteSmid has the potential to be a value contract.
ReplyDeleteMatt Greene is earning $2.9 million per season. That is a full value contract.
The Oilers should be able to get Smid for under $2 million per season.
What's that, the City is buying the land from Katz? If the City owns the land and the arena, will there be any property tax revenue to pay back the $125M of our money invested in this act of corporate socialism?
ReplyDeleteWho is responsible for cost overruns? Are there provisions for the price of oil tanking, interest rates rising, dollar declining?
$100 million from Katz and $125 million ticket tax from the users of the building (many from outside Edmonton) means the city is getting a brand new spanking arena (which it will own)...
ReplyDeleteSo they'll have an asset from which they can't realize any operating revenues and have no real chance of meaningful capital gains. What's the point of owning assets, again?
I presume Smid's physical ineptitude protects him from supermodels with careers based in L.A. or N.Y. What's not to like? How does trading Smid get you more hockey value? Or do we have a pressing need for a different stripe of towering mediocrity?
ReplyDeleteAfter turning Penner into Colten Teubert, I can see how Smid might soon become expendable, in a year or two.
Seriously, even if Lowetide doesn't dislike Smid as such, there's something about how Smid sidled up to ANP-hood like a lopsided lawn bowl that drives him loopy.
Couldn't agree more about Smid. I see Laddy as very much the opposite side of the coin of Tom Gilbert. A one trick pony who's one trick isn't sufficiently strong to keep the player in the core as you look to build an actual contender. Gilbert's one trick is his passing. Smid's? Well, he is bigger and more mobile than your average pylon.
ReplyDeleteI sincerely hope that it is sinking in with Lowebellini that consecutive last places finishes indicate this team has a LOT of roster deficiencies particularly on the back end. Tambi signing a couple D FA's this offseason who are actual well rounded players (no more Kurtis Fosters please) would go a long way towards repairing the credibility of this GM.
"What's the point of owning assets, again?"
ReplyDeleteWell you can always write off their depreciation. There's that at least.
And this kind of asset gives you a nice place to take the kids. Quality of life. Poor argument? lol
Well you can always write off their depreciation. There's that at least.
ReplyDeleteCity doesn't pay taxes, or run an operating profit. What are they supposed to "write it off" against?
I feel like Jerry Seinfeld.
The city owning the building and land implies that there will be a lease. Could be a sweetheart deal for the Oilers, but still a lease.
ReplyDeleteSince the Oilers will operate, then that lease will include all events, which is not only much more reasonable than the one they have now but also could bring the city more revenue than a hockey-only lease.
If the city decides to give part of the lease to Northlands to make up for their losses, that's fine and good, but personally I'm glad to see them out of the day-to-day operations.
godot,
ReplyDeleteCity owning the building is good for only Katz as he won't pay taxes on it.
He will operate the building and get 100% of revenue streams.
I really hope council makes him guarantee any shortfall in CLR revenue with revenues from the building.
I could use a new building for my business. I've looked into it and I figure it will cost about $3MM to build.
I'm going to city hall with my proposal that I pay $750K and they kick in the rest. I will also buy the land for the building, but sell it to them at a higher price. The city can own the building so I don't have to pay property tax.
I'm sure they'll jump at the chance to help a business in their city.
My company has 13MM in revenues, the Oilers have a rumoured 90MM, so they are 7x my size.
I'm only asking for $750K, they are asking for $350MM which is 466x what I am asking.
I can't lose!
List of Oiler defenders who are big, physical, and mobile:
ReplyDelete1. Ladi Smid
Better get rid of him, he doesn't fit in.
The city owning the building and land implies that there will be a lease. Could be a sweetheart deal for the Oilers, but still a lease.
ReplyDeleteMy assumption is that Katz's capital investment is in place of rent - we'll see.
Also, I was going to say "Not hating so much on Iveson *now*, are you, Woodguy?" But then I remembered that that was Ducey. I'm not sure why I confused you too, since your positions on almost everything Oilers-related are directly opposed. Maybe it's just because you've both alluded to being right-of-centre politically.
ReplyDelete(I view this arena thing as something on which left and right should be able to come together, as evidenced by Iveson and the Canadian Taxpayers Federation being on the same side.)
(My confusion is especially ironic in that you've made fun of my ability to dredge up specific facts from previous threads.)
(As soon as Clarkenstein shows up, I'm asking him if he's ready to recant criticizing Renney for putting Horcoff in the shootout.)
"I feel like Jerry Seinfeld."
ReplyDeleteIt was a joke WG. Maybe not on par with the genius of Kramer's oil bladder, but I would've thought our resident Jerry Seinfeld would've picked up on the sarcasm.
Rich people get richer by spending other people's money. This has been going on forever so while I understand the wont to rail against it, in the end the railing will be much sound and fury, signifying nothing.
ReplyDeleteKatz owns the team. That gives him the hammer in this negotiation. Having Mandel negotiate with Katz is like sending someone to a gunfight with a pez dispenser. This was as inevitable as Hemsky's next shoulder injury.
Sorry Lee, I missed it.
ReplyDeletebut I would've thought our resident Jerry Seinfeld would've picked up on the sarcasm.
Steve Smith missed it too?
SS,
I'm starting to think you're a one trick pony with the Horcoff/Clarkenstein thing, pick your game up!
I think I wrote that Iveson was the only person asking the right questions.
I hope Mandel is down spending my daughter's taxes on his legacy projects and he can go away.
The Edmonton Sun had the rink story on the same page as the City of Edmonton $30MM budget deficit story. You can't write this stuff.
Well, maybe SS can.
Saying "poor argument lol" implies you were being serious but weak. In other words, not sarcastic. You fucked up and are now coverng your tracks. Nice one. (That bit is sarcasm).
ReplyDeleteYes spOILer, that must be it. I must be covering my tracks cos it's really really important to me what a group of anonymous posters on the internet think of a blog comment I posted that will have a veritable shelf life of 12 hours. That's certainly worthy of significant damage control.
ReplyDeleteGreat insight.
Please note that the post above is clearly labeled with the now prominent SARCASM tag for those who prefer their internet commentary being clearly labeled.
shouldn't we wait for another year before Katz announces this?
ReplyDeleteOh, I'm sorry, that only applies to picking up real players;)
Also, I was going to say "Not hating so much on Iveson *now*, are you, Woodguy?" But then I remembered that that was Ducey.
ReplyDeleteYeah, thats me. Still hate him in a political sense. He is a nice enough guy. He would be a terrible mayor.
Woodguy,
how many blog sites are dedicated to discussion of your employee's performance or whether they are likely to leave? How's your TV coverage:-)
Edmonton is sitting on a metaphorical gold mine in its unused downtown land.
ReplyDeleteOnce activity reaches a critical mass of stuff, it will be condofied, with Asian buyers and investors looking to secure a Western education for their children, and a safe haven if things take a turn for the worse in Asia.
Asian cash buyers are already driving the top end of the Vancouver real estate market, and scooping up condos in downtown Toronto. The effect is not going to go away, and they will be looking for alternatives as Vancouver and Toronto become saturated.
Godot10, I think you're incorrect. There are 'ghost' condos all over Vancouver, since no one actually lives there. It was just a backup in case the whole Hong Kong takeover went badly. In that regard you're about a decade too late to capitalize.
ReplyDeleteAs for the saturation, you're a bit off again. The reason most Asian populations, particularly the Chinese, move to Vancouver or Toronto is precisely because of the high saturation of Asians already there. Not to mention the large city with attendant amenities and jobs.
That's why you don't see a lot of Chinese immigrating to say, Saskatchewan, even when they were paying people to move there and sponsoring their families. I also know a few guys who moved to Calgary from Hong Kong for upper echelon IT jobs during that boom 2 years ago, every single one of them ended up moving to Toronto within a year, and one even moved back to Hong Kong because he couldn't adjust.
In case it's never come up, I might be of Asian descent.
ReplyDeleteHong Kong was just one city 30 years ago.
ReplyDeleteThere are now 10 Hong Kongs or more with wealthy Chinese looking for a dual education in the West and East for their children, and a safe haven, just in case.
They can't all go to Vancouver, Toronto, and Sydney.
As China invests more in the oilsands, and in potash, and in uranium (in Saskatchewan) Edmonton and Calgary and their relative affordability compared to Vancouver and Sydney will get noticed.
I agree that Smid is probably the guy you could both get something of value for, and can afford to lose.
ReplyDeleteWith that said, I've long tagged the 300 game mark as the time where stay-at-home defensemen get to the point where they can actually be counted on to help the cause in a positive way.
This is the point in a player's career where you'd like to be adding a guy like Smid to your team, not dealing them...which is why I think we might have seen Smid's final game as an Oiler already.
Godot10, if they're affluent or wealthy then they're not necessarily looking for affordable. Also there are a lot of affordable places in the GTA, I would guess the same is true for Vancouver.
ReplyDeleteBeyond that, I still don't understand how you believe Edmonton gifting Katz an arena will attract more affluent Asians looking to spend money to Edmonton.
Even if what godot is saying is true (and I do have a little trouble believing it), how is that justification for Mandel forcing all Edmontonians to hand some of their hard-earned money over to a billionaire for his pet project?
ReplyDeleteThat is, if Asian demand is coming anyway, due to "saturation" in other real estate markets, condos will be built whether or not there is an arena.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteWoodguy,
how many blog sites are dedicated to discussion of your employee's performance or whether they are likely to leave? How's your TV coverage:-)
If all it takes is blogs and TV coverage to get massively subsidized, then I'll make it happen in a week.
So who's getting the profits on shows and spectacles?
ReplyDeleteIf it's Katz, the City's getting their ass handed to them.
If not, that deal might work out.
Combined revenues from spectacles (More outside income) in and outside the rink, plus the taxes the Oilers should pay wouldn't be unreasonable. There's a big potential to be profitable over the terms of the lease.
But if they just bought all that shit with no rights to revenue it's called getting screwed big time.
Godot,
ReplyDeleteWhen the recession hit many condo projects were already under way.
The result was that the Edmonton condo market was severley over built. Some in the business say its 5 years over built.
I know of 8 projects that were put on hold, about a total of 1100 units. I'm sure there were more.
There is no pent up Asian demand that will miraculously appear if the next condo is next to a hockey rink.
If the demand was there, there wouldn't be so many unsold units on the market. Pick up a Real Estate guide and count the number of condo ads for condos that already built.
There will still be condos built around the rink, and another boom is coming (I bet concrete cost 30% more in 3 years in Edmonton, goos luck hitting 450MM), but the rink won't create any more demand, it will just move where some the projects are built.
how is that justification for Mandel forcing all Edmontonians to hand some of their hard-earned money over to a billionaire for his pet project?
ReplyDeletePolitics is all about making decisions on how to spend our tax money. Roads, schools, LRT, museums, fighter jets, bombing Libya, etc.
Most of the time, most of the people agree with the decisions.
I think that Mandel and the majority of counsellors are astutue enough to spend $125 Million (or something less as the CLR pays us back) to avoid the crisis of the Oilers leaving (or almost leaving). The majority of people agree with it as they see the Oilers as integral to the City.
I for one feel that I and my family of 5 will get good value for the extra ~$500 we will have to pay in taxes (amortized over 35 years).
I don't think hoards of asians are going to move to Edmonton (althought they are welcome to) but revitilzing the downtown, and keeping the Oilers are key in making the City a great place to live.
EDM will pay $125 million (again some or all of which will come back in extra taxes) to attract $100 million in private investment and hopefully $100 million in prov/ fed investment. Plus it likely will spur additional investment.
If Katz makes money along the way, I don't care. I get a better place to live for a reasonable price.
Woodguy, speak for yourself.
ReplyDeleteI know when I was looking to immigrate the first thing on my list was finding a condo near a NHL hockey arena.
Also you this whole impending mass Asian migration is going to be huge since it's so "pent up" that no one, not even the Asians know about it.
Lee:
ReplyDeleteIf Gilbert indeed only has one trick, it would be 'playing defense'.
#1) Laforge is an Asshole. 10 PM presser on a Wednesday night. Nice.
ReplyDelete#2) Who pays when this goes over budget?
#3) It's Alberta. Price of Oil is rising. Everything goes over budget.
#4) What about all the extras? Is that 100% Katz?
#5) What's the revenue split?
#6) Why were none of these qustions asked? Oh right, #1.
Oh, and deal Smid.
PDO: On #5, the revenue split is there isn't any. Katz takes it all, but pays for the upkeep of the building. The only way the city makes any money on the arena is through the lease, which I expect will be in the $1/year range.
ReplyDeleteKinger, you forgot his disappearing puck trick (5th in the league in giveaways this year). That's a pretty good trick. Oh I forgot, he's a high event guy so that's forgivable (albeit one that can't quarterback a power play).
ReplyDeleteGood old Gilby. He's a conundrum wrapped in a paradox.
Lee: Yeah and Strudwick has almost none.
ReplyDeleteTo make giveaways you have to get the puck first.
In my own humble opinion, being 5th in the league in giveaways isn't a very serious problem. Other guys in the top 20 include Joe Thornton, Duncan Keith, Ryan Getzlaf, Drew Doughty, Brad Richards, Martin St. Louis, Jarome Iginla, and Brent Seabrook. Generally speaking, if you have the puck a lot, you're going to have more giveaways.
ReplyDeleteAnd I see that FPB has not only beaten me to the punch, but done so more succinctly. Oh well.
ReplyDeleteFPV, if your strongest argument for Gilbert is that he's better than Strudwick, I think that argument also applies to about 99.9% of the defensemen in the league.
ReplyDeleteLee: Talk about missing the ship. That had NOTHING to do with what I said.
ReplyDeleteNo. That means that some shitty defenseman don't have high giveaway totals, and it's because they don't have the puck. Defenseman who get the puck a lot will have more giveaways.
I'll take St. Louis or Iginla's giveaways for the offensive production they're providing in turn.
ReplyDeleteWhen the player in question is giving you only 26 points in a season, you'd expect them to protect the puck a little better. He's a not a sniping forward on free rein in the offensive zone. He's a human hand grenade in his own zone.
Crawford Offer sheets are off the table...
ReplyDeleteThe 26-year-old goaltender signed an US$8-million, three-year contract with the team on Thursday.
ReplyDeleteThe 26-year-old goaltender signed an US$8-million, three-year contract with the team on Thursday.
That puts them at $53,681,336 for 15 players.
If the cap is $62MM, that leaves 8.32M to sign 8 players.
Time to put an OS in on Frolik. With Penner gone the Oilers need to shore up LW and he's a good young Real NHL player who can handle Real NHL players.
I'd offer around 2.8MM/yr over 3-4 years. Maybe even 3.0MM
The 26-year-old goaltender signed an US$8-million, three-year contract with the team on Thursday.
ReplyDeleteWhy on earth did they play hardball with Niemi last season just to cave to Crawford this year? Oh well.
Giveaways/60
ReplyDeletePeckham 3.05
Whitney 2.77
Gilbert 2.70
Petry 2.69
Vandermeer 2.50
Smid 2.24
Foster 1.70
Strudwick 1.48
I always knew Strudwick was twice as good as Teddy Peckman.
ReplyDeleteSorry,no sarcasm key.
WG. Frolik? OS? Seriously? Why don't we just callup Chicago and ask for a deal, maybe we can trade him for Smid?
ReplyDeleteI can understand that he's played enough games where you think he might be ready to be steady but obviously money and the upside of the one's he blocking should be the final words on whether he stays or not.
ReplyDeleteWe have 6-77 as vets and we're still breaking in 49-58. So, I'd rather look for two real D to fill those other spots and by real I mean D that we know are more useful than 5.
I'm not saying we throw him away just for the fuck of it but he doesn't look like a guy that you'll really regret trading either.
That's good stuff Bruce. Too bad you don't have a metric that quantifies the ones directly leading to goals. You could compile a TSN Top 10 of egregious giveaways for Gilbert last year that ended up in the back of the Oil's net.
ReplyDelete@hockeyguy: I can correct for ice time but not for # of touches. Strudwick should be at the bottom cuz he handles the puck the least. Still it's concerning to see Peckham atop this list - it ought to be Whitney Gilbert Petry first, then the stay at homes.
ReplyDeleteDennis: Solid post, its exactly how I feel about the defense and Smid going forward. The Oilers use at least one Dman that has played years in the bigs. Just to balance out the youth a bit and the penchant for humongous errors.
ReplyDeleteTime to put an OS in on Frolik. With Penner gone the Oilers need to shore up LW and he's a good young Real NHL player who can handle Real NHL players.
ReplyDeleteI'd offer around 2.8MM/yr over 3-4 years. Maybe even 3.0MM
His point totals the last three years 45, 43, 38. He is young, inconsistent and doesn't always play hard. His Rel Corsi of 6 is okay.
He doesn't seem like a top 6 player on the Oilers and doesn't profile in the bottom 6. Sounds like too many of the guys we have already.
BTW Fernando Pisani's Rel Corsi for CHI this year? -20.6, yuck.
Lee:
ReplyDeleteAre you familiar with rink bias and RTSS stats? Go ahead and put together the road-only stats for 77 and we'll see if your point holds water. Until then, the evidence you are providing is next to useless.
@Lee: David Staples does keep track of goal-causing errors at the Cult of Hockey. He doesn't record specific types of errors other than "primary" & "secondary" but the puck is in the wrong net either way. Gilbert did have a few clangers but way <<< 10 of the type you describe, unless you are counting career-to-date or something.
ReplyDelete@kinger: right you are with RTSS recording bias. That's why I generally only use them within a team rather than across the league.
That's good stuff Bruce. Too bad you don't have a metric that quantifies the ones directly leading to goals. You could compile a TSN Top 10 of egregious giveaways for Gilbert last year that ended up in the back of the Oil's net.
ReplyDeleteSo cute! It's like you're a caricature of a certain kind of hockey fan. Keep on keepin on Lee, just don't expect to ever know anything.
@Bruce
ReplyDeleteI understand I was just being a smartass. :-) I get that the more you handle the puck the more chance for giveaways.Who gets the the giveaway if I pass it into your feet and you get stripped of the puck?Or I put it on your stick just in time for you to get rocked and cough it up.Giveaways is one of the stats I put next to traditional plus minus.Too many variables.
@hockeyguy10: a shitload of turnovers don't get counted at all. They try to get clearcut giveaways & takeaways & do an erratic job even of that. A lot of the flow of a game is beyond measure.
ReplyDelete@Bruce
ReplyDeletea lot of it is beyond measure.Unforced errors are the only ones I hold a player accountable for.When a guy has time and space and still makes a bad play...he should qualify for bonus points.
ReplyDeleteHis point totals the last three years 45, 43, 38. He is young, inconsistent and doesn't always play hard. His Rel Corsi of 6 is okay.
He doesn't seem like a top 6 player on the Oilers and doesn't profile in the bottom 6. Sounds like too many of the guys we have already.
Ducey,
You are not seeing the forest for the trees.
He just turned 23 in FEB, which means his point totals were as a 20,21, and 22 year old.
He also played 1st and 2nd toughs on a shitty FLA team.
His +/- while playing harder comp?
+10 as a 20 year old
-4 as a 21 year old
+2 as 22 year old
All that while playing the toughs, in the infancy of his NHL career, on a shitty team.
He was a key reason that the pisscutter twins did SFA against CHI 5v5.
He's got enough offense that he could be a 2nd liner and if he's 3LW, you have a very good team.
This guy is the real deal. Like Uberle and Hall he came out as a rookie keeping his head above water. Very, very rare.
You gotta grab this guy when you can.
Bowman ripped off Talon in a big way getting this guy. Stealing him from CHI would be great.
Dangerman,
Why give up Smid when you only have to give up a 2nd with an OS? I doubt Bowman would trade him anyhow.
All that while playing the toughs, in the infancy of his NHL career, on a shitty team.
ReplyDeleteHe was a key reason that the pisscutter twins did SFA against CHI 5v5.
Sorry man. I don't see it.
Unless I am reading it wrong, he had the 10th hardest Q of Comp for CHI in the playoffs. Doesn't sound like Sedins to me.
I expect Toews, Kane, Keith and Seabrook had something to say about the Sedins.
In the regular season he had the 7th hardest Q of C.
He sounds like he is below Hemsky, Hall, Eberle, Gagner, Omark on the depth chart and probably sits around Horcoff and MPS.
A useful player perhaps but with duplicate skills. This team needs some size, grit, and talent in a C.
If the Oilers are making offer sheets they need to be targeting guys that might be first line C's and Dmen someday.
Ducey: Are you serious? Playoffs.
ReplyDeleteIt means he only played 1 series.
Means he directly impacted his QC, thus only reflects his performance.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to think you're a one trick pony with the Horcoff/Clarkenstein thing, pick your game up!
ReplyDeleteWell, there's plenty I could pull out about Lee, but since we had some bad blood a while ago I've taken to only interacting with him using my "Kris" account, or having my gay lover, Kinger, do so on my behalf.
"Keep on keepin on Lee, just don't expect to ever know anything."
ReplyDeleteAmusing how often this type of commentary originates with 'students.' Nothing beats the unbridled arrogance of youth. Heady days. Funny how a few miles under the tires give you newfound appreciation for the old saying, "the more I learn, the more I realize I don't know."
Even more ironic how often some of these all knowing students go on to accomplish sweet FA in the real world.
Wait, you're a grown-up and your reaction to people lined up against you is to accuse them of being gay lovers?
ReplyDeleteI think you have 'students' confused with 'purveyors of evidence based analysis'. It's true Lee, your age has given you the confidence to throw evidence out the window and 'go wit ur gut'. Congratulations, you know what you know because you know it.
ReplyDeleteKinger, STeve Smith and I are one person who has gay sex with himself. It's like Transformers, but gayer, or at least as gay.
ReplyDelete----
Still listening even though I don't post about content anymore. Great posts lately LT.
"Wait, you're a grown-up and your reaction to people lined up against you is to accuse them of being gay lovers?"
ReplyDeleteNot in all instances, just with you and your lover.
And the very fact that you're both still bringing it up months later means it obviously hit a nerve. It's gratifying when a typically transient blog comment can have that kind of longterm impact. It means we CAN change the world one person at a time (sometimes even two!).
That makes that throwaway comment and long forgotten thread so much more poignant for me now. Thank you :)
Lee: No that just makes you a troll.
ReplyDeleteFPV, I think the thread shows quite clearly I wasn't the first to starting hurling personal insults. In fact, that honor belongs to our young student savant.
ReplyDeleteI just take the bile and throw it back, albeit with a touch more elan. The good news is, unlike his current education, the one I'm giving him is free. I do ask that you tip your waitress however ;)