For Edmonton Oiler fans, it's hard to look at Jeff Petry as anything less than a saviour for the defense. He's young, skilled, has size and can do all kinds of difficult things with seeming ease. A smooth puck mover, he's already an excellent passer. He's a quality skater and has shown surprising effectiveness when jumping into the offensive play.
As with all young defensemen, Petry is taking some time to adjust to the blazing speed at which plays are made in the NHL. That said, he's a smart kid and a quick study.
Jeff Petry 10-11
- 5x5 points per 60: 0.21 (8th among Oil D)
- 5x4 points per 60: 1.67 (5th among Oil D)
- Qual Comp: 5th toughest among D
- Qual Team: 7th best available among D
- Corsi Rel: 2.0 (tied for 4th best among D)
- Zone Start: 49.1% (3rd toughest among D)
- Zone Finish: 50.5% (5th best among D)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 41 shots/1 goal 2.4% (7th among Oil D)
- Boxcars: 35gp, 1-4-5
- Plus Minus: -12 on a team that was -52
- What do these numbers tell us? A nice beginning. Petry faced third pairing opposition with Laddy Smid (52.6%) and Jim Vandermeer (27%) and survived it. In fact, his CorsiRel was in the top 4 range during his 35 games.
- How could these numbers be better? Petry is a mobile player with a nice range of skills, so the offense (worst on the team) is likely to improve. His minus 12 is a subpar number (expected: -8) but considering zone start and his situational stats I think it's a solid debut.
- Can he be a complete defenseman? There's some evidence Petry might be able to play in all situations. Coach Renney used him on PK, PP and EVs this season and rode him pretty hard at evens, so there seems to be a willingness to let him run.
- You didn't like him as a prospect. I liked him, but others better. Guy Flaming was right all along, Petry is a quality prospect and the foot speed doesn't look like an issue from here.
- Shouldn't you surrender? Already did, it's here.
- Can't wait for your Smid surrender post. I'll get right on it.
- Are they bringing him along properly? I think so, yeah. Renney in TC: "We have to make sure--even with a player who has been very impressive here--as more of an adult looking player here at this camp; Jeff is not an NHLer today. It's not the wrong thing for us to make sure he goes to Oklahoma City, so he can get a feel for the physical nature of the game. We can expect too much of this player who is so good in so many areas, and then three months from now we're saying 'what happened?' Well let's not go there." Seems to me there were cautious and measured.
- He didn't bring much offense with him from college. He'll be fine. Petry isn't going to be featured on the PP, so most of his points will come at evens. He went 2-10-12 on the PP in OKC, and 1-0-1 on the PK.That means he was 4-7-11 at even strength in 41 games. I think he'll hit 20 points next season (if he plays some on the PP) and improve over the next few seasons. He'll be able to post some offense.
- What's his downside? I think he'll have the same problems as Tom Gilbert. Fans will sour on him as they learn he's not a knuckle dragger.
- Is that really a concern? Have you read or heard what they're saying about Gilbert? Edmonton fans like their defensemen toothless and bloody.
- Is he ready for the top 4? I don't know. He's an older prospect so that bodes well and he's played 35 games at NHL speed now. Ideally, Peckham and Petry would be the 5-6 pairing and the Oilers would have the 2000 Niinimaa, Smith, Staios and Brewer in front of them. But they don't, and so the growing pains are going to be more severe.
- How important was his season to the Oilers? Huge. HUGE. The fact that he didn't fall flat gives the team some hope for him (and Peckham) moving forward. It might (and I say might) allow the team to take the BPA in this draft instead of Adam Larsson (who might be the BPA) as a need. I don't know for sure that he played well enough, but suspect he did.
Prediction for 2010-11: 15gp, 1-1-2 (.133)
Actual 2010: 35gp, 1-4-5 (.143)
Has more grit than Chorney, more skill than Peckham
Your subconscious is riding you pretty hard about Smid.
ReplyDeleteLove the song choice, but not really for the song. It was the one song I would never forget as a kid.
galom - what Smeagol said halfway through his life
Petry is a nice prospect to have at this time. He's right on the same curve as the big three.
ReplyDeleteBut to play him with Whitmey right off the bat next year might be too much and putting him in OKC might be too little. I flrmly believe the 6 spot on any D corps should be a team's breeding grounds with the % being a solid vet. Petry should be pencilled in as the 6 to start the year next year and watch him grow.
He needs some work in terms of positional shooting. He has a cannon of a shot, just needs work on working on gaining shooting lanes and getting pucks through, aka. doesn't always have to be the big slapper. The Oilers having a net presence (sorry Pierre) would help him out as well, it would probably help Gilbert out too.
Quiet here.
ReplyDeleteToo quiet.
Petry is ahead of the curve. Like Gilbert, Peckham, Hartkainen, Reddox he is a hockey player. Doesn't look out of place and nothing that experience won't cure.
As you said Lain his emergence is huge. I know you think Gilbert or Smid may get moved but if they do not do so then with those two, Peckham, Petry and Whitney then you have a start. Of course we are still short two guys to play top four but the foundation is there and if Petry is what he appears to be then that number drops to one.
Plus ... I'm drunk. Woooo. Hello summer!
Eurded - well shit I don't think I am
Gilbert gets an unfair rap but petry is a more physical player from what I have seen; I think the mouth breathers will go a little easier on him.
ReplyDeleteLT,
ReplyDeleteYou forgot a very important part.
He's shoot Right.
Right handed Dmen are more valuable than LH on the whole due to hockey god D making more lefties.
Right handed Dmen who can move the puck are even more valuable.
Right handed Dmen who can move the puck and play in a variety of situations add even more value.
The Oilers have Petry and Gilbert as RH Dmen with a wide range of skills.
I Petry matures like he's looking he will, he should be able to handle toughs in 3-4 years.
In the meantime, the Oilers need a RH #1 if they don't want 77 to fill that role.
Oilers should sign Bobby Mignardi
ReplyDeletePlaying him with Whitney would be ideal as long as you're not using that as your top pairing. If we had another quality vetran to play the left side on Gilbert's pairing, then Whitney-Petry would be good for Petry and the team. Then you could line up some combination of Smid/Peckham/Foster as your 3rd pairing and you have yourself a manageable defense.
ReplyDeleteThen again, a lot of problems with this team could be solved by adding players to the top of the order.
misfit said...
ReplyDelete"Playing him with Whitney would be ideal as long as you're not using that as your top pairing. If we had another quality vetran to play the left side on Gilbert's pairing, then Whitney-Petry would be good for Petry and the team. Then you could line up some combination of Smid/Peckham/Foster as your 3rd pairing and you have yourself a manageable defense.
Then again, a lot of problems with this team could be solved by adding players to the top of the order."
Exactly.
A #1 and #2C, two top pairing defensemen and a an NHL quality starting goaltender.
Easy peasy.
what does the advanced math say about Troy Brower?
ReplyDeleteTough guy with enough skill to play on the third line. I think he is RFA. With Chicago's money problems could we get him for Cogliano?
(cheap decent third liner but too small on a team with too many smurfs as we all know)
I look forward to idiotic crowds at the new arena booing Petry out of town. Thank goodness Winnipeg is coming on board - Edmonton will soon be the second worse city in hockey to play in.
ReplyDeleteWe can all rave about how enthusiastic Edmonton is as a crowd in a playoff run, but watching and listening to 'fans' at any other time demonstrates that really, we are mostly a city of ill informed louts who don't understand hockey any better than the people of Pheonix - the only difference here is that there is nothing else to do so every Duane, Dave, and Matt end up buying quads, a 5th wheel RV, a Plasma, and Oilers tickets so that they can go get drunk at games and yell at the 'bums to get off the ice'.
Good morning bookie!!
ReplyDeletePetry has looked good so far but if he is on the first pair with Whitney we're a lottery team again.
ReplyDelete@bookie As far as fanbases go, I feel Edmonton has better informed fans than most. Yes, those of us that are informed are the minority, but show me any other hockey team's fanbase-- nay, any other professional sports team's fanbase that isn't dominated by the Drunken Lout. By your argument, there's 29 other NHL teams with fanbases that won't mistakenly persecute an effective player. Why? Because Kings fans haven't thrown Matt Greene under the bus yet? Do hockey-loving Angelenos hold a more astute opinion of the game than us? I don't think so.
ReplyDeleteYour point is valid in that YEG's a one horse town, but there is no Utopia. And we definitely aren't the worst (well, besides in the ability to ice a balanced lineup). Oilers fans have a rich, deep online community that is at the forefront of the advanced statistics movement. Of course it would be a better world if more fans could look past subjectivity, but there's no point in being bitter when there's so much to be positive about.
Phew. Rant over. I left my opinion about Petry somewhere around here...
Bookie, you need some sun or something buddy.
ReplyDeleteEvery city is mostly filled with ill informed louts. I doubt you are going to find an arena not filled with people booing the refs, yelling at the goon on the other team, getting frustrated with their own teams turnovers, have a whipping boy, etc. Then there is the jackass on his cell who always has to stand up and turn to the camera and wave when the play is in front of him (there should be snipers in the catwalks to take care of those losers), or the morons who pound on the glass when there is scrum along the boards.
The louts get a lot more vocal when the team sucks. They see the team losing and flail wildly about spouting off reasons. It hard to get upset about Gilbert's "lack of hitting" in a 5-1 win.
I'd still stick with an Oilers crowd over any other - at least they know the best team to cheer for.
"Duane"
Ha, bookie's getting both barrels today ;)
ReplyDeleteRe: Petry.
I remember him manhandling a couple of Avs in one of his earlier games with the big club (a quick archive search says G36). I think that grit is there, but I don't know if he made as much use of it as the season wore on. Could be coaches were telling him to focus on the finer points, could be it was a glimmer and nothing else. Besides all that, I love the kid's game and I hope the Org doesn't make the mistake of expecting him to fill an unrealistic slot in the depth chart.
@ Bookie
ReplyDeleteI totally resent that comment. I have an LCD, not a plasma. Everything else is pretty accurate.
Also, as DF pointed out, we certainly have that kind of fan (just check out the ON comment section) however, we also have a large community of fans interested in educating themselves on finer points of the game. I would submit that, taken as a whole, the Edmonton Oilers have the most informed fanbase in the league.
Beat me to it Matt-I was working on an LCD joke...it was going to be great..:)
ReplyDeletecorfook-corfook you too!
I'd much rather sign Joni Pitkanen and trade Petry, as Petry's potential is a 1 and 1/2 pairs down version of Joni.
ReplyDeleteI know how little chance people think that has of happening, but don't particularly care. It'd be an excellent move.
Ducey: Haahhaha. We should defintely have a special unit to kick the cellphone stupids out.
ReplyDeleteJesus you spend 150$ for the game and you gotta wave like an idiot during it's 60 minutes duration.
EDM isn't worst than any other town. MTL does the same. Altough it's been way softer lately. People can turn opinions more easily I believe (People used to hate Gill, now they like him)
MINNEAPOLIS -- A medical examiner in Minnesota has ruled the death of New York Rangers enforcer Derek Boogaard was an accident, due to mixing alcohol and oxycodone.
ReplyDeleteBookie:
ReplyDeleteMontreal fans booed Carey Price.
In the preseason.
Oh, and their fans will crucify you if you don't learn a foreign language.
Did I mention that I love Edmonton and that is why I choose to live here?
ReplyDeleteYes, to be fair, the reason lots of teams don't pick goats or boo their home team much is that they don't really care about the games. I admit that the 'Oilogosphere' is a pretty impressive place - although a lot of people here are not actually from Edmonton.
I watched a few games in the Forum and it was great, the Montreal fans actually shifted from cheering to booing constantly as the puck moved up and down the ice. I am not sure how they could see the ice through the haze of smoke, but it was a lot of fun.
I presume that you can no longer smoke at the games in Montreal?
Anyway, it still drives me nuts when the fans pick a player and make him a goat, often in a very poorly informed way. I frequently talk to highly opinionated fans who barely know the players on the team. I would bet on any given night, less than 30% of fans at Rexall could tell you that Hemsky plays right wing.
So, with that said, I am thankful that LT has this site and that the Oilers have a rich on-line community!
Bookie: No you can't anymore.
ReplyDeletePDO: We'll only crucify if you've been playing 10+ seasons, is the captain and you can't bother to make a 5 second message in French.
Oh, and their fans will crucify you if you don't learn a foreign language.
ReplyDeleteAny particular one? It seems alot to ask players to take up Icelandic or Tagalog. ;-)
bookie - it is always easiest to be most irritated with those nearest you. Distance is a great way to achieve peace, which is why marriage and the middle east are such excellent forums for discontent. I get your rage against louts too, though I am fortunate enough to only get to one or two games a year and am able to enjoy the experience and mock the louts so I can milk it for all its worth.
cists - you may want to get a medical professional to check those out
1 - French is as much a foreign language as English is. So unless you speak fluent cree, you're pissing into the wind...
ReplyDelete2 - I'm pretty sure most of us fit into the brutish lout category, especially after drinking and wathcing the crap the Oilers have been calling a team for several years. That being said, the VAST majority of us are of the enlightened louts, as we do take the time to learn more about hockey, as others have said. However, as we are louts, we naturally want to argue our beleifs, and because stats are one effective tool to use to back up an argument, whoever knows more about those stats has can have a stronger argument. So, in a big way, the fact that we have been using stats here, we have been a breeding ground for enlightened louts, and as such, have a much higher concentration than the average NHL team's fans.
3 - Petry is looking like a reasonable bet for 2nd pairing guy eventually. I think if you want him playing 1st pairing next season, you're either smking drapes or planning for another high pick.
4 - If Pitkanen would come back here on we might actually have a D-corp next year. Which would be a blessing. That said, I don't think trading prospects is a good plan right now, especially ones who may be 5-tool players.
Downright Fierce: I've seen him play in college a few times and he definitely has a physical touch to his game. I saw it come out a few times this year but I suspect it will become more apparent as he grows up and becomes more comfortable in the NHL. I wouldn't label him a physical defender but in the few games I watched he was stepping up and making open ice hits and frequently playing the body. As LT puts it, he has a wide range of skills.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the Gilbert comparisons will hold though the two players do have their similarities.
THUNDEROUS BODYCHECKS!
ReplyDeleteIf you want to bring out the louts, bring back Pitkanen.
ReplyDeleteI have no idea where all this "bring back Pitkanen" talk is coming from, but as somebody who believes that a defenseman's worth can be measured by breakaways taken, I like it.
ReplyDeleteI think he hates this place even more than Bookie does, though.
"I would bet on any given night, less than 30% of fans at Rexall could tell you that Hemsky plays right wing."
ReplyDeleteNeither can Pierre McGuire and that's his job.
And the Oilers do have among the most informed fanbases in the NHL. The trouble is that ON commenters* hear that description and think it applies to them, when in fact it applies primarily to me.
ReplyDelete*There are plenty of intelligent ON commenters; those aren't the ones I'm talking about.
Lots of peoeple hate Ft. McMurray too, but somehow it's full people and one of the fastest growing cities in north america.
ReplyDeleteHell, even the ladies of the night make out well there.
If you pay them, they will come.
Not sure where the Pitkanen love is coming from either.This team needs a couple of Willie Mitchell's,not more fancy Dan's.
ReplyDeleteAnd do we have to pay for his Mom to come as well,and does her salary count against the cap..?
If you pay them, they will come.
ReplyDeleteOr pretend to, anyway.
Or pretend to, anyway.
ReplyDeletelol
If you pay them, they will come.
ReplyDeleteOr pretend to, anyway.
Fantastic!
Hunter: Grew up in Saskatchewan. Had a cab driver freind who would cash the Goverment cheques at his reserve two days in advance @ a 45% cut.
ReplyDeleteHe didn't need to drive cab. But he loved driving to the other reserves to spot new Equipment that had been wrecked by the locals. My favorite was he bought 4 Cat D7 from different reserve councils for scrap and got 2 full running D7 with less than 50hr. and parts the rest for better than the new price of one. Did the same with Combines, Half ton's, Tractors and hoe's. After a while you get to know which reserves were the jackpot.
As for the cheque spenders I had freinds who were there. my first real job i lied about my age and worked at A&W. The weekend of the cheques i would work mornings and be asked to chase the drunks out of the dumpsters getting food. Eye opener for a 14 year old.
Addiction 's evils was hit home.
Steve - The Pitkanen talk was mine. I was one of his bigger fans (both here and beforehand). We needed that guy then and we need him again now. His and Petry skillsets are similar, but I see no likelihood that Jeff will ever come close to what Joni is.
ReplyDeleteIf you pay them, they will come.
ReplyDeleteIf you pay them, you will come.