Tom Stivali's article on Adam Larsson is exceptional. And there's more below.
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I'm still on the Sean Couturier bandwagon and do believe Ryan Strome is underrated at this point. I'm not certain where to slot Jonathan Huberdeau; there's a point at which--despite playing on a terrific team--the evidence becomes too much to ignore.
COULD Jonathan Huberdeau go top 3? top 2? #1? I still think it's RNH's to lose but scouts are going to have a long look at Huberdeau this spring. So far, the showcase is going well.
LT: I'm literally changing my mind every couple of hours as to who I think should be taken, so I'm at the point where I just want the damn draft over with and I'll be happy with whoever they pick!
ReplyDeleteSeriously though, for "weak" draft, there are a lot of very talented players for sure. Perhaps no Crosbys or Ovechkins but some great talent nonetheless. Too many to choose from.
oh and btw, I'm actually EasyOil, but this Google Accounts thing is weird.
ReplyDeleteI'm still bullish on Larsson. For all the bemoaning of his 'regression' I just don't see it. Even disregarding any hampering by injuries his ice-time, especially in a pretty long playoff run, is impressive, and downright astounding for a 18 year old.
ReplyDeleteFor all of those bemoaning Hedman's 'bust' a quick look at those advanced stats shows what he's doing as a 19-20 year old on a Lightning team that is making some noise in the playoffs. I still take Hedman over Tavares or Duchene. 5 years from now we'll see who's panned out better I suppose; I will say that Tavares and Duchene are looking mighty fine in Canadian colours =).
At 2nd I'd take Couturier based on size and consistency over a period of time. I still think Larsson and Couturier are the safest bets, with the former having the most upside. I can't express how much I'd hate seeing Larsson or Couturier in Avalanche or Devils colours...ugh.
I was thinking this morning in the shower (my best work occurs there!) that this draft will heavily define how we rate MBS as a chief scout years from now.
ReplyDeleteWe have a situation where the deck is stacked for RNH. He's generally the consensus #1 and he's a WHL prospect. I think we can agree that both of those factors have MBS leaning towards the lanky kid from Red Deer.
In the long run history will show us the best pick from the top 5 of the 2011 draft. If RNH is the best player, well it's another notch on MBS' belt. If he's not though... I think it will raise a substantial doubt about his scouting acumen.
We know he's been extremely busy this year watching all the players. We also know (courtesy of Brownlee) that he's confident in his pick for #1. If RNH can't hack it in the NHL, what will that say about MBS?
For what it's worth, I don't think we can go wrong with RNH, Larsson or Couturier. It's a tough year to make the first choice.
stedisms
Virtually everyone of these guys is at best one year away. The closest to moving up now are Larsson - because he's played with and against men for two years - and Couturier - because he's got nothing left to prove in junior.
ReplyDeleteI'm with EasyOil, changing my mind constantly. I was for Larsson, then Strome, then Nugent-Hopkins, and now Huberdeau.
I say pick Huberdeau because of all that natural skill, grit, and hockey sense. What he has can't be taught. His upside is epic and is definitely a clutch player. As for a defenceman, there's always the LA pick or 2012. Apparently some good d-men will be available then.
I do not think that "bandwagon" means what you think that it means.
ReplyDeleteI don't know who I want them to pick. The only two prospects I've looked into in any detail are Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson, and I've got serious reservations about both of them. That makes me feel like I'm hoping for Couturier, but I don't actually know anything about him. The Oilers probably shouldn't hire me as a scout.
Bandwagon: When someone adopts a popular point of view for the primary purpose of recognition and/or acceptance by others.
ReplyDelete"Man, Nanlawon has been posting on our forums forever and everyone hates him. Then this new chick, Toolesbabe, joins the forum and just hops on the bandwagon ripping on him, even though she'd never even read a single post by him. WTF?!"
I still think Larsson is the way to go. If The Avs take him at 2, The thought of him shutting down the Oilers forwards for the next decade terrifies me.
ReplyDeleteHedman has been the best D-mean on TB in the playoffs. If that's Larsson's comparable, I take him over RNH.
There's simply too many concerns about RNH's game and how it will translate. Doesn't it bother people that most of the buzz surrounding him stems from his production over a one month span at the end of the year? How many of his points are from secondary assists on the PP?
They will rue the day they take another small, skilled forward.
seriously, my word verification is "scout"
ReplyDeleteI'm couturier all the way! he's going to be hated for his skating in a pernneresque way.
as was noted above, this is the first time MBS really has a "tought" decision that will be under review. He's looked genius making some later picks, and many of his earlier picks have been no brainers (taylor, and magnum dropping to us)... i really hope that a western regionalism doesn't dominate the selection.
Trying to compare Larsson to a CHL player is apples to oranges. However, the Couturier to Humberdeau is fairly self evident to me
ReplyDeleteSean Couturier has all of these things over Humberdeau
-3 inches
-20lbs
-a better F.O. %
-a higher pts per game (1.66 to 1.57)
-QMJHL player of the year award
-invitation to WJHC (the people who judge players saw him better than J.H.)
-a roughly equivalent +/- on a worse team
-a better history (scored 96pts last year to J.H.’s 43)
I don't see how you can look at these numbers and take Humberdeau over Couturier.
Made a little research on RNH's ratio and translation into the NHL.
ReplyDeleteI took the ''effective'' PP players with a ratio of 1/1 or close (+20 points)
They were 3 guys:
Thornton, Heatley, Lecavalier.
Only Big Joe finished in the top 30 scoring this year.
All these 3 had relatively bad years. I think it's strongly suggest that:
A: If you score 1/1 ratio on the PP in the NHL, you're probably a d-men/PP specialist
B: If you are, it's probably a steep year.
I liked Hall last year because he was in the #1 position before the start of his draft year and then proceeded to put up another great year with all eyes on him.
ReplyDeleteThe two names that seemed tp be on the top of the lists before this year were Couturier and Larsson. Of the two, Couturier went out and posted another outstanding year while some of Larsson's numbers dipped.
Since Couturier also happens to be that big C we've needed forever, I'd be happiest if they picked him.
At this point, I'm thinking it'll be RNH though.
Huh - there may be a Couturier bandwagon after all. My apologies, LT.
ReplyDeleteJason Arnott or Doug Weight...
ReplyDeleteBoth great players... Who would you rather have centering your top line?
I'll be happiest if Oilers pick the guy that Stu likes best. There's a pretty good chance that might actually happen, too.
ReplyDeleteTake Couturier. The Oilers have 4 flashy wingers right now between Hemmer, Ebs, Hall and Omark. RNH dupilcates the hell out of what we have - slightly-built skill players.
ReplyDeleteThis isn't rocket surgery.
Plays in all situations? Check
Makes his wingers better? Check
Wide range of Skills? Check
Size? Check
Numbers look good? Check
Only knock on the kid may be his skating, and even then, would be average in the NHL. As a Centre, that's okay.
The Oilers need hockey players. Couturier is a better all around hockey player. They already took a bad risk with Abney a few years back. How bad would it be to pick up a bust with the 1st overall?
Make the safe choice - centre with size.
I would call Couturier an average skater for Major Junior. I doubt he would be average for the NHL. That isn't to say he won't add speed and power as he matures, he might or he might not. As for his size, he's good at boxing guys out, but I wouldn"t call his style of play a power forward.
ReplyDeleteTrying to be smart with the 1st overall pick is lunacy. If RNH is the guy that most scouts have at #1, that is the guy you choose, period.
ReplyDeleteThis organization has thought itself in circles in the past, and the results have almost never been good.
FPB:
ReplyDeletethere's definitely one thing Thornton, Heatley, and LeCavalier have in common:
SIZE.
Dizzy:
ReplyDeleteIn a year where there really isn't a clear #1 overall, a team can afford to take the safer bet.
RNH may be the next Yzerman/Sakic, He may also be the next Ribiero/Turris. You want those guys #1 Overall?
I hope I'm wrong about RNH because that's they're likely to take.
Well that last sentance was poorly worded
ReplyDeleteLarsson may be the next Nick Lidstrom. He may so be the next Lars Lindgren.
ReplyDeleteHere's how you compare Courturier to Huberdeau. Yes, Couturier may have better stats, but the one thing that he DOES NOT have over Huberdeau is his ABILITY TO SKATE! I don't care what you bring to the table, if you can't skate, you can't keep up. If you can't keep up, you can't be an effective player in the National Hockey League. Couturier would look great in the AHL, but that (as we all know) is a totally different league. A beautiful example of what I am talking about would be Alexandre Giroux. He is a wonderfully skilled winger who has scored 50 goals+ in the AHL, but why then is he not able to make the NHL? It's the same story. "He just doesn't have that extra gear" as Pierre McGuire said. Neither does Couturier my friends, so please look at this with some objectivity and stop letting the propaganda influence your thoughts.
ReplyDeleteMoving on....I had the chance to scout Ryan Strome in the series against Mississauga recently. I must say, I was tremendously disappointed. He did ABSOLUTELY NOTHING and I mean NOTHING in the series. Will he be a good/great NHL player one day? Most likely, but so far, Mississauga has exposed his weaknesses. He is very much a "flake" and seems to shy away when things get tough. Not exactly a Taylor Hall clone that's for darn sure! That is a sad thing, because I was expecting so much more. He looks like a superstar playing against teams like Belleville and Peterborough, but against the best defencive teams, he TOTALLY disappears! However, he has tremendous passing ability and is a very good skater. I compared him to a Jarret Stoll with much more talent. If only he had the strength and determination of Stoll....Then we would be talking! I see Strome as a longer term prospect/project. It will take him 4-5 years to get to being NHL ready (in my opinion). We will see, but he has to get to be much stronger on the puck and get some Stoll qualities into him. Time will tell.
Lastly, as for Larsson....Although I would pick "The Nuge" as #1 in this draft, I would still be equally as happy with Mr. Larsson. Tremendous potential and wonderfully skilled. Let's put it this way. When you are compared to Nicklas Lidstrom, that makes you are a franchise-type defenceman. Last time I checked, we (The Oilers) could most certainly use one!
I am so glad that we won the draft lottery because now we can see just how good Stu MacGregor REALLY is. I will be at the draft and be anxiously awaiting his #1 selection.
Cheers.
Rob:
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think of Couturier's skating?
Bruce:
ReplyDeleteI know it's naive to think Larsson will be the next Lidstrom, but he has been touted as a top prospect since he was 15 years old.
The chances of him failing are much less than most. I understand the arguments that you take a D-man that high to supply offense, and he may, or may not bring enough. He has FAR fewer question marks than RNH.
I think this team, this year, need to take the safest pick. Larsson is the safest pick (and may turn out to bring said offense eventually).
RVD
ReplyDeletehow did you get tickets to the draft??
I'm on a waiting list behind the Wild season ticket holders. I expect it will be easier once they actually distribute them
A friend of mine is a season ticket holder for the Wild. They are guaranteed tickets to those who are.
ReplyDeleteHypothetically, this meeting in Phoenix could split the scouts - half are in with the Nuge, and half are after Larsson. Does this mean that the other pick comes into play? Do they start looking at who they could get in the middle of the first round - if they think Siemens or Morrow is going to round out a top-2 D-man, does this slope the ice in favour of RNH? If McNeil has impressed the pants off them, does this help Larsson?
ReplyDeleteWhat do you guys think?
@ RVD
ReplyDeleteYes, Couturier may have better stats, but the one thing that he DOES NOT have over Huberdeau is his ABILITY TO SKATE!
I have not seen either play. I am not qualified to judge their skating abilities even if I had seen them.
If you can't keep up, you can't be an effective player in the National Hockey League.
Hall of Famers - Luc Robataile and Brett Hull say hi.
A beautiful example of what I am talking about would be Alexandre Giroux........ "He just doesn't have that extra gear" as Pierre McGuire said.
Giroux scored 37 points in his draft year and was taken in the 7th round. I would call his career and tremendous sucess given his draft position. McGuire also said Sidney Crosby had strong, pumping thighs.
please look at this with some objectivity and stop letting the propaganda influence your thoughts.
I can only objectively look at evidence that I have available. This evidence leads me to beleive that SEAN COUTURIER IS A BETTER HOCKEY PLAYER THAN JONATHAN HUMBERDEAU. Most scouting organizations agree with that statement, some don't.
Anytime there are a number of comparable players available a team should be looking to trade down.
ReplyDeleteIt seems that there are around 8 guys in the conversation. The Oilers could trade the #1 for anywhere up to #8 and still wind up with Strome or Huberdeau.
I'd even be okay with trading the #1 for Johanssen, Seguin, or Schenn if I was convinced they were better than anyone in this draft.
Are they?
I like Johanssen. He has all the tools including size and skating, but only put up a ppg in his draft year. Seguin had similar numbers to the top guys this year. Why was he so hyped last year and the guys this year constitute an average draft year? Schenn had 88 points in his draft year.
Given the relative position of LA, CLB, and BOS's picks, a deal involving the #1 for Johanssen and the #8 pick could fill the holes at C real quick. If its part of bigger deal involving Hemsky or Gagner, so be it.
As I have stated before, I like "The Nuge" mainly for the following reason. We already have a #1 Left Winger and #1 Right Winger in Hall and Eberle. What they need (besides some increased strength and experience) most of all is someone playing Centre who can feed them magical passes so all they have to do is bury the puck "where mother hides the cookies" as Rick Jeanneret would say. "IF" Hopkins' passing (and vision) is as good as Gretzky's (as has been said), then all he has to do is pass the puck to Taylor and Jordan and look out! He doesn't even have to worry about scoring goals....I could see Hall and Eberle each scoring 40 goals + with their eyes closed once all three are mature NHL Players. Too much sniping talent there for it not to happen.
ReplyDeleteI agree with itsaleaf that Larsson is probably the safest pick (Landeskog also seems to be a sure quality NHLer), if we mean by that which pick is sure to pan out to some degree. His only downside is whether he has elite offense to justify going #1, but his history of success suggests he will be a quality defender for a very long time.
ReplyDeleteThe rest of the top5 could be complete busts independent of injury. RNH has a few well documented flags; I'm told by Rob that Couturier's skating is pretty good and that he is pencilling him onto his roster, but I've also heard otherwise and a lot of scouts seem to hate him; Huberdeau doesn't have Couturier's stats and has only come on as of late; Landeskog is probably the second safest but he doesn't have the same level of skill as Larsson.
So even though RNH is the quasi-consensus pick, the "safe" pick might be Larsson. But part of the problem is that part of the risk/reward includes whether you'll benefit from a player's prime years, and someone like RNH is far more likely to hit his peak during his RFA years than Larsson. And then you can tack on Larrson's injury problems.
In the final analysis, I'd be very happy with Larsson. I also would trust Stu if Landeskog is called.
I'm also curious to hear what Dennis thinks.
ReplyDeleteI'm also curious to hear what Dennis thinks.
ReplyDeleteWhy? You just know he's going to be all wishy-washy and non-committal.
homey don't play draft
ReplyDeleteHey "Mr. Couturier", watch this video and I rest my case. Huberdeau will be a Superstar in the NHL, Shawn will not.
ReplyDeletehttp://watch.tsn.ca/featured/clip449719#clip449719
^ Copy this link into your browser and get yourself educated.
Enjoy!
did anyone notice CBC were conveniently cutting replays last night which wouldnt show dirt plays by Canucks?
ReplyDeleteThe first one I noticed was when Smithson took a penalty for clipping luongo, but a second before that contact, Luongo stuck his arm out and interefered with smithson from crossing the crease. CBC only showed from the very frame after Luongo impeded Smithson.
The second was when Higgins scored. Kesler went flying through the crease and subsequently Rinne was knocked out of his goal and Higgins scored into an open net. They only showed the same replay over and over which you couldnt see Keslers interference. The announcers didnt mention it once either.
Kerry Fraser called out the Higgins goal on tsn.ca as a 'dirty goal'. So I assume the replay I wanted to see would have affirmed by suspicions.
I live in the US rely on the online feeds, and I cringe every time I have to watch a cbc feed. The quasi-nationalist coverage is getting incredibly tiresome.
ReplyDeleteI'm not certain if it extends to the video editing but there were a couple points during live action where I wanted to see something on replay (because I thought the Dys were getting away with something) and never did.
I think some people are putting their foot into their mouths when they refer to Couturier's skating ability. The knock on Couturier is his first couple of steps, but once he gets going with long strides he usually will catch up or pass in a distance. Remember scouts knocked Greztky's skating. Also remember Couturier had mono, which knocks the shit out of you and takes a long time to recover. The Oilers are in more of a need of a center that can win that FO and not be knocked on his butt all the time.
ReplyDeleteYou can pick RNH and hope he learns to win in the FO circle, puts on 25lbs and develop a better defensive game. Or you pick Couturier who has a good defensive game, great in the FO circle, good size and like to hit and can score just as good as RNH. To me it's a no brainer, you pick Couturier, because there are too many if's with RNH.
Danny...
ReplyDeleteYes, I did notice.
But I just assume the MSM is going to lie to me on everything and anything.
Take the "success" behind nailing Bin Laden for example. He could've been had at near zero cost in 2001. Instead we get 10 years of war, insane military debt spending, civilian deaths, atrocities, torture, asinine airport security, etc etc and then finally killing him 10 years later is spun as a success, something the Americans and their Allies like Canada should feel proud and patriotic about. And TSN is doing "anthem specials". It's repugnant and revolting.
But such is the world.
Archie,
ReplyDeleteHave you seen Couturier skate backwards?
And in a short rink, and with NHL checking, those first 4-5 steps are huge.
Archie: "If he doesn't have a first good step he can't play for my team" doesn't have the same ring.
ReplyDeleteI'd say the vast majority of relevant NHL speed has to do with ability to accelerate, particularly at the NHL level where play changes quickly.
spOILer he play a regular shift on the PK, was +55, and had 4 shg. These stats do not support theory that Couturier is a bad skater. Also his long reach with his stick makes up for loss in speed and yes I've seen hi skate backwards. If he couldn't skate backwards his +/- would be around what RNH had.
ReplyDeleteMatt N.
ReplyDeleteThe other things Huberdeau has over Couturier are:
1) A playoff ppg that exceeds his regular season mark (by a wide margin)
2) A reputation as a player with high compete levels and intensity
I'll take those over the last 3 inches in height over someone that may be a bit of a floater and a mixed playoff track record.
"gcw_rocks"....Well said my friend. I can tell you know something about hockey.
ReplyDeleteNow, there have been rumours I have heard recently about the draft that sound very interesting. Not the least of which being the possibility of us trading down to #2 with Colorado. We would get in exchange, a flip of second first rounders (their #11 for our #19). If this is actually being discussed, I would do it in a heartbeat. That is, of course, if Colorado intends to take a player OTHER than the one Stu MacGregor wants. That's what it's all about. Being creative as a General Manager. Hopefully we see something like this at the draft. In this scenario, both teams win. We would still get our player, the Avalanche get theirs, and we move up in the draft all at the same time.
Here's hoping...
"gcw_rocks"....Well said my friend. I can tell you know something about hockey.
ReplyDeleteNow, there have been rumours I have heard recently about the draft that sound very interesting. Not the least of which being the possibility of us trading down to #2 with Colorado. We would get in exchange, a flip of second first rounders (their #11 for our #19). If this is actually being discussed, I would do it in a heartbeat. That is, of course, if Colorado intends to take a player OTHER than the one Stu MacGregor wants. That's what it's all about. Being creative as a General Manager. Hopefully we see something like this at the draft. In this scenario, both teams win. We would still get our player, the Avalanche get theirs, and we move up in the draft all at the same time.
Here's hoping...
On the Colorado deal, how pissed would we be if the situations were reversed and Tambo traded the 2 and 11 for the 1 and 19?
ReplyDeleteHard to see it happening.
2+11 for 1+19 is the kind of deal you might get last year (if Boston was very high on Hall) or in a year with a clear but not Crosby-like #1. I can't see any team doing it this year with the uncertainty in the top four-five players, _especially_ if Colorado is looking to pick a player Stu isn't. Why make the trade if the player will be there at #2?
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteWell said my friend. I can tell you know something about hockey.
heh.
To me it's simple. Paajarvi or Hall moves to center. The Oilers need a #1 D which means Larsson. There are MacNeil, Zibanejad, Scheifele, centers that should go in the teens and are at the least #2 centers.
ReplyDelete@ RVD:
ReplyDeleteInteresting link. A Craig Button sound bite to educate me on the prospects. Very informative. I wonder if he ever worked in the industry and if so, why he isn't now?
BTW, I did some research and found diffinitive proof that Couturier is better than Humberdeau.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
@ GCW:
ReplyDeleteI also understand that he is clutch and has a glow in his eyes.
Agree w/commonfan and gogliano. I see no reason why Colorado would do that deal because there's no benefit to them.
ReplyDeleteBoth teams have different needs so unless we're going to throw something else in (attn all arm-chair gms's: make it more than magic beans) that's not going to happen.
Great article from in Lou We Trust on Hedman/Larsson comps. I can live w/any of Larsson, Huburdeau or Landeskog - although if you draft the latter, I'd wonder if they are planning to convert Hall or MPS to a center or a trade may be coming to address the center issue long-term (upgrade on Gagner).
In Stu we trust.
You have to think that the conditions are there for a flip as suggested.
ReplyDeleteThis assumption requires that the top two picks are Larsson and RNH (or another center) and that both prospects are within a coinflip of eachother. If the Oilers believe this is the case then I would think the Avs do as well.
As much as the Oilers might like to avoid a smallish C, you'd think the Avs would be considerably more motivated.
If the Oil simply approach Colorado and say they are keen on Larsson but they feel the swap would serve them well, how could Colorado not jump on that? If they think Larsson is clearly the #2 or that Landeskog is within range of #2 then perhaps they balk.
The reason I think this doesn't go down is because Tambellini has indicated that he likes scouts to get passionate about the players. This would make it difficult to say two players are a coinflip apart. Which means they will likely believe there is a clear #1, at which point they have to keep the pick.
"Larsson may be the next Nick Lidstrom. He may so be the next Lars Lindgren."
ReplyDeleteBruce you and Rod, have alwways been my favorite read, Now Coach and Steve S.
but I can say this is one of the dumbest examples of all time on this blog. Epic Bad.
"Agree w/commonfan and gogliano. I see no reason why Colorado would do that deal because there's no benefit to them."
ReplyDeleteIf (big if) it a choice between an equal C and D, then I think they would be plenty motivated to get the D. How much are they looking to improve on Stastny and Duchene?
Archie,
ReplyDeleteYou can tell skating ability with your eyes. Stats are deceiving at this level especially since we lack context (and given his excellent size). To take the overall stats we do have and then use them as proof he's a good skater lacks basic logic.
The issue with his skating has been consistently referred to in his scouting reports, which are conducted by paid professionals, so why can't you just accept that he's not perfect?
He may or may not be able to overcome his skating issue, just as Huberdeau and RNH may or may not overcome their size issues, just as Larsson might find more offence as he matures (and gets more PP time), etc.
What concerns me about Couturier is similar to the comments about Landeskog. That there seems to be a limit to his upside. I never read things like outstanding vision, impeccable hockey sense, unbelievable creativity. He gets comped to Jordan Staal, not Mario Lemieux or Joe Thornton or even Tavares. Now I think part of that is that it is difficult to tell with large bodies how they will turn out. And I grant that he perhaps doesn't have the downside of RNH or Huberdeau either, but at number one I personally would prefer the guy with high end potential who has demonstrated he has those abilities most difficult to instill: sense, vision, creativity and size. Difficult to teach any of these, but the reports seem to indicate that RNH and Huberdeau are ahead in three of the categories.
Again to me, the choice is almost like deciding which player to build your centre position around: a Doug Weight type or a Jason Arnott type. Both are useful type players and both might be a prerequisite to successs in today's NHL. I think you can get an Arnott type at a lower draft pick... see where McNeill, Scheifele etc went. I think at #1 you have to go for high end talent, but that's just my humble intuitiveness.
And I also personally think that Larsson will be a stud and his offensive deficiencies over-stated. Given that he was fighting a groin injury for a couple of months and his PP time relinquished to an NHL prospect a year older, I think we have yet to see his offensive upside.
ReplyDeleteAnd out of all the potential first rounders, he had by far and away the most effective World Juniors, while fighting said groin injury. And to me, despite The Tournament of Small Sample Sizes, says a lot.
But you know, if we're trading Hemsky + Brule + Smid and the 18th for Weber (lol), then of course taking Larsson would be a tad superfluous.
ReplyDeleteIf you can project at all, continuing - Hall, Paajarvi, Eberle.
ReplyDeleteNext line Hartikainan, Horcoff Hemsky
Projecting
Hamilton, Lander, Pitlick
That to me is not unreasonable and that would be a team that has size, skill and toughness. Basically sit back and give them time and as they mature plug them in.
To me the critical draft pick would be the second one as MacNeil, Zibanejad, Scheifele would go around the #10 level. I have them in reverse order as desirablity.
If Paajarvi, Hall can play center then Larsson is definitely the pick going forward. The critical need is for the dominating Dman.
Bos8... That's a big IF that won't be answered between now and draft day.
ReplyDeleteI don't get how you can support that Larsson is the ''safest pick'' I agree he's been there for a while, but track record of high pick defenseman have proven it's a shaky thing.
ReplyDeleteThe fact is, to get an elite defenseman, you just need so much together, there's more margin for error in observation.
Spoiler:
Our eyes can deceive us, just as much as the rest.
I think a lot of the guys who are compared to Couturier just weren't in the same class. Staal didn't find his offense before draft year and was only PPG.
His track record is a lot closer to Eric than Jordan.
As for the upsides, I just have trouble imaginating how he performs at that level with so many fatal flaws. Seems like something is missing.
Well, I thought I'd run with a different set of priorities. Just for a change of pace. Hall likes to go left, Paajarvi likes to go right, Paarjarvi is more defensively conscious. They both need someone to skate with them, Eberle comes in late to clean up.
ReplyDeleteOf the options available these seemed to make the most sense. Edmonton has two needs - #1 Center and a #1 Dman. RNH and Musil draft leave me feeling, Meh. Maybe if RNH passes the puppy test or his dad is a big man then you might have something.
Isn't Eberle in some ways the most natural choice to be moved to centre? Brainy two-way player who can dish as well as shoot and has enough speed to do what's necessary?
ReplyDeleteRegardless, there are some options for #1 centre, not the least of which is being patient with a 21 one year old player already scoring at the rate of a 2nd line centre...
I say we just put all the names in a 5 number range of pick in a hat and pick that guy.
ReplyDeleteLook at these playoffs. Size and speed. I don't want to get into the Gagner gabfest. He's average all around, plays small and defense is to whom it may concern. The wee Swede is stronger on his skates than Gagner.
ReplyDeleteAs to putting Hall, Paajarvi, Eberle on one line - it's immaterial on who plays center, they're smart, creative players. Paajarvi was developing nicely as he got more ice time.
Bos: Let the best man on the dot be center, let the rest unfold?
ReplyDeleteBos: Let the best man on the dot be center, let the rest unfold?
ReplyDelete------------------------
Sure, why not?
Waiting two years for RNH and then for the sake of argument the first line is Hall, RNH, Eberle makes for scary times against tough opposition as in the playoffs.
"Larsson may be the next Nick Lidstrom. He may so be the next Lars Lindgren."
ReplyDelete... I can say this is one of the dumbest examples of all time on this blog. Epic Bad.
Thanks for the compliment Rickibear, and my apologies for omitting the sarcasm mode, I thought it would be obvious. I just get tired of arguments that say, "Larsson could be the next Lidstrom, we can't pass him up; but RNH could be the next Sakic OR the next Ribeiro, why would we take that chance?".
None of them are going to be the "next" anyone except themselves. The whole business of making a such a comp and then getting all excited or depressed about it is fatally flawed.
Would you have preferred if I said Larsson could be the next Mattias Ohlund? :)
Just thought it was about time to chime in with a deeper look at Larsson's numbers (some have termed it a "major regression" while I agree with spOILer that it's overstated).
ReplyDeleteSkellefteå AIK
hockeyligan
As we know, Larsson's scoring totals dropped this year (17 points down to 9). Note that his 17 points tied the SEL scoring record for under 18 year old defenseman.
Let's add in playoff totals:
09/10: 11games, 1 assist
== 18 points in 60 total games
== 0.30PPG
10/11: 17games, 4 assists
== 13 points in 54 total games
== 0.24PPG
Hardly a major regression.
Not really progress either, but the SEL is *not* junior. Larsson doesn't have the benefit of a huge rookie class, along with a huge exodus of more experienced players every year.
Seems to me that boxcar regression in junior is more of a warning sign than for a young player in the pros. Even in junior it's not the total answer (see Doughty: regular season PPG fell almost 25% from his second to this third year in the OHL).
Still, that's only boxcars, which, as others have pointed out, can be incredibly misleading. Context is vitally important. Advanced stats would provide more context (e.g. speculation is that Larsson is not as sheltered this season, facing tougher comp--the increased time on ice could indicate that...but it's still not advanced stats). Then there's injuries to take into account.
One bit of context we do have though is that young D generally don't score much in the SEL. For example, Lidstrom, in his draft year at 7 points in 34 games. Here's some recent Swedish D and their SEL season leading up to being drafted (from hockeydb.com):
- Enstrom--6 points in 42 games (5 in 33 the following year)
- Hedman*--21 in 43 games
- Karlsson*--1 point in 7 (10 in 45 the year after)
- Kronwall*--5 points in 37 games
- Ohlund*--no games, then 16 in 34 season after being drafted
- Rundblad*--10 in 45 games
*=1st rounder
Hedman is only one of the bunch to have decent boxcars pre-draft. However, his team didn't make the playoffs while Larsson's team finished first. As Oiler fans, we should be able to appreciate the difference between top teams (and the amount of ice kids get) and teams that aren't so deep.
Point is, let's keep Larsson's point production in perspective. It's extremely early to ding Larsson as having limited offensive upside.
I could definitely see Larsson as the top pick. Seems to me he's the one guy that's a possible generational talent (not from boxcars...yet, mostly from the fact he made the SEL at 16...only the 3rd player to do so). Of course a case could be made for any of about 4 or 5 players to be #1. Meaning it's not as obvious as the RNH boosters suggest. Since the forwards are somewhat in the same range of each other, I hope the Oilers can get Larsson, and trade up to get one of the forwards. Best D in the draft, and one of the top Cs.
That said, I don't have all the info that scouts do. Whichever selection Stu wants, is fine with me. I just hope Stu gets to make the call...
---
olump: the happens to Ohlund after venturing into Larsson's corner a couple years down the road
And thanks rickibear. I'm sure a lot of LT's readers thought you made a typo or invented that "Rod" name. :-)
ReplyDeleteThis clip is great...
ReplyDeleteEberle gets shot down at the Worlds.
I wonder how much the interviews with these kids will influence the pick and if they could even flip a position the scouting staff may have right now that they're pretty solid on.
ReplyDeleteSeems like Hall's win-at-all-costs attitude that came through so strongly in his meeting might have clinched things for him last year (I think Lowe had to wait a few minutes before he could stand up afterward). Plus you've gotta think this org needs to put a priority on picking guys they think will want to be here long-term.
Based on RNH's comments so far, you've gotta think he has the early lead in the intangibles department.
Rod, great post - agree completely on the minimal regression and the importance of context.
ReplyDeleteUgh, trading down is the worst move you can do. You need to increase your chances of getting the best player, not make them worse. If you trade down but gain a second round pick, what are the chances that that pick pans out? Pretty poor. Chances are they wont pan out and now you've traded down for essentially nothing. And you end up with a poorer chance or your player being an impact player.
ReplyDeleteAfter reading blogs at "In Lou We Trust" I now see why LT keeps saying SC is a very very viable candidate at #1 and also why Larssen is a viable first pick.
ReplyDeleteI am not the best predictor though, I thought Hall/Sequin was a pick em and they were not. Just not sure the Nuge is the clear cut gotta pick em that we are let to believe
And the fact that Klowe gets a trouser tent every time he sees the Nuge gives me no solace. He might be the worse saw em good guy in the entire world of hockey....that includes posters on the Al Gore
Given that he was fighting a groin injury for a couple of months and his PP time relinquished to an NHL prospect a year older, I think we have yet to see his offensive upside.
ReplyDeletePerhaps.
Perhaps not.
The question is, do you want to make such a gamble at 1st overall?
Scouts have not only questioned his offensive upside, but have also declared there is no parts of his game that specifically stand out. He's good at everything, but the scouts question his upside.
I really don't see the point drafting a defenceman with question marks, especially given that it will take at least 3 years to be a true difference maker.
There is high upside with RNH and evidence appears to support that. When 6 out of 10 scouts on Bob McKenzie's list indicate RNH should be first overall, that's symbolic for "Don't dick around - she fell right into your arms."
Huberdeau is my dark horse for best player in the draft. Scores a ton of goals as a second year junior (6-9 months younger than most other prospects), great +/-, enough PIMs to suggest physicality and really, if it wasn't for the good teammates, he'd be a Seguin comparable.
ReplyDeleteI'd pick him long before Strome or Landeskog. I'd pick him before RNH (who can't score without the power play), and only Couturier's bout of mono (with the long-term effects that has) makes me hesitate.
If I was the Oilers' GM, it'd be down to Couturier, Huberdeau, and Larsson.
Of course, I'm not a pro scout and other than RNH, Couturier, and Larsson, I haven't seen these kids play - and even then, the latter two were only at the juniors.
To me the critical draft pick would be the second one as MacNeil, Zibanejad, Scheifele would go around the #10 level. I have them in reverse order as desirablity.
ReplyDeleteBrett Ritchie: 6'3" RW July 93 so his desjardins chl NHLE is .71. the young man was in a limited role the first half of the year. he had Mono. Had .4ppg. Clearly not his level he was .45ppg as an 16 year old and .65ppg the last half of his 16yr old season.
Player -16yr -17yr -Last half
Strome .45PPG 1.63 1.85
Catennaci .46 1.06 .77
Cousin .48 1.00 1.13
Puempel 1.08 1.25 1.33
Ritchie .45 .85 1.30
once he was healthy ritchie was 1.3ppG for last half of the season. do i think he would have been around 1.2PPG for the season healthy. Most likely. He just went to U18 and 1PPG top10 goals, top 20 points, #2 in points for Canada forwards. played defensive role first 4 games. 1 goal. Moved up with Cousins and Quine for Germany 1G; USA 2G 1A; Russia 1G 1A.
he would project to a 35G 35A guy in the NHL. Worst case he is 1ppg and a 30G 30A guy. HN has him ranked at #58 what a rag. and most to mid season Rank 35-40. this is the guy you take a chance on but your kidding if you think it is a risk. he could be the best goal scorer in the draft and top 3 for points. Damn right I take him at 19.
For those knocking Couturier's skating:
ReplyDeleteSkating is very important in today's NHL, but it's not an absolute must. Comparisons like Hull and Robitaille are absurdly out of date - they're pre-rule changes.
But a comparison like John Tavares is spot on. Tavares is an average skater now - after working on it for two years. He's doing fine.
rickibear
ReplyDeletedon't you think the Oilerscould get Ritchie at 31?
rickibear: I'm a big fan of Ritchie's game as well. He was very good at the Under 18's and over the second half of the year. I'd been thinking he'd be the ideal steal pick at 31 but I think any teams that hadn't payed as much attention to him because of his slow start have woken up now. As you mentioned, was 3rd among the Canadian forwards in scoring and 2nd in SOG for the team.
ReplyDeleteAs an aside, Ritchie was second in shots to Ryan Murphy who fired a Ovechkin-like 47 shots in only 7 games. Murphy also set a record for most points by a Canadian player and easily broke the tournament record for most points by a defenceman.
Man I hope Roli wins the Cup.
ReplyDeleteI'll always love the guy.
Hall on Twitter:
ReplyDelete"How many times is Eberle going to get a sportcenter top-10 devoted to him?"
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ReplyDeletedon't you think the Oilerscould get Ritchie at 31?
ReplyDeletethere are 5-10 +40 goal scorers each year.
there are 15-20 +35 goal scorers
There are 30-40 +30 goal scorers each year
there are 50-65 +25 goal scorers each year.
so in a 15yr draft cycle there will be 3-5 25 goal scorers/yr
2-3 30 goal scorers
1-1.5 35 goal scorers
.6666 40 goal scorers/year.
We got a future 40g Hall
We got a future 30G Eberle
We got future 25G scorers in MPS, Hartikainen,
Do you want to chance not getting Ritchie! 25? 30? 35? goal scorer.
he comes from Sarnia were they are producing(finding) the elite Scorers.
In Robin Browlee's article on ON, Stu indicates he expects Landeskog to be a third liner, with 2nd line upside.
ReplyDeleteMath seems to support that.
i hope they can get RNH 1st then zibanejad with the LA pick, and hope oleksiak makes it to 31st, HIGHLY unlikely to happen like that, but i really hope so
ReplyDeleteThe forwards all have question marks, take Larsson and solidify the D for the next decade.
ReplyDeleteOilers fans have seen enough losing where we won't be impressed by taking a risky "can play now" guy with flaws.
Take Larsson, let him play in the SEL next year, anyhow about trading for a good NHL caliber centre instead of assuming a kid can develop into one...