I think maybe Devan Dubnyk is the last of that group. Selected in the middle of round 1 in 2004, Dubnyk was developed carefully by the Oilers and finally won the war for NHL employment with Jeff Deslauriers.
And even with that, the Oilers were hesitant to play the man. Despite clearly outperforming the highly paid veteran, despite winning far more than the starter, Devan Dubnyk was spotted throughout the season. It looked for all the world as though they were underestimating his ability to do what he was in fact doing.
I understand they have a plan, and the number overall pick was in view by January. But it's galling to watch a team stubbornly insist the poorer goalie get the most starts. Strange, strange behaviour.
Devan Dubnyk 10-11
- Boxcars: 35gp, 2.71
- SP: ..916
- WLT: 12-13-8
- SP behind starter: Dubnyk was 26 points clear of the veteran
- What do these numbers tell us? The Edmonton Oilers really wanted that lottery pick. If DD had played the total minutes of Khabibulin (and maintined his performance level), Edmonton would have saved themselves 31 goals against. For a team with a goal differential of 76, that's a large portion of the problem staring you right in the GD face.
- What do these numbers tell us? The Oilers once again are hesitant to trust their procurement department. At some point during the season, Dubnyk progressed from prospect/rookie to NHL goalie; at that point there was simply no good reason to play Khabibulin. At all. This isn't an argument I'm making, this is absolutely a fact.
- What. do. these. numbers. TELL US? Dubnyk performed very well as a rookie. Of the 7 NHL rookie goalies who played enough to qualify as regulars, DD's .916 SP ranks 4th. Considering the team he backstopped (DD was just behind Corey Crawford of Chicago and ahead of Washington goaler Neuvirth, Los Angeles' Jonathan Bernier and the latest Flyer entry Bobrovsky) I think he could be considered as one of the best rookies in the class. Vancouver's Schneider and Toronto's Reimer were ahead by a fair margin in SP, so it looks like a strong group arrived this season.
- Is he really a legit #1 candidate? I think so, yes. It doesn't mean he's going to be a star for the next decade, but he's showing some ability at the highest level in the world. I think those horrible teams he played for in junior and pro made it harder to see him as a legit starter. Asiaoil talked about this many times (in the comments section of the Dubnyk posts on this blog, Asia patiently walks us through the kid's career. He neither trumpted his arrival nor buried him, a good lesson for us when the next "goalie of the future" arrives).
- How many games should he play next season? If Khabibulin is his partner, 82. I kid. I think Dubnyk should be the Oilers starter beginning in the fall, but the club should also sign someone like this Finnish fellow Fasth as an option. Bring him over, if he forces his way onto the roster the club can carry three goalies. They've done it before, and that way Khabibulin can watch from the pressbox. First MVP award to be won while sitting with the media, but if you're trying to win hockey games.....
- When was the last time an Oiler backup was this much better than the incumbent? In 03-04, Tommy Salo's SP slipped to .896 while Ty Conklin's was .912; that seems a good match for what we're viewing here. Garon outperformed Roloson a few years back, but both goalies were much better than Khabibulin this past season.
- Well, the Oilers dealt Salo for Gilbert. Khabibulin still has value. I wish they could find a KHL team to take his salary, maybe cut a deal where Katz can at least save some real dollars (the cap hit remains no matter what happens). But no, there's no Tommy Gilbert coming for NK.
- Back to Dubnyk. Is Conklin his upside? I'd aim a little higher. I think Dubnyk at the very least will end up being a Gary Smith type (Smith's nickname was "Suitcase" because he kept moving around, but he was a starter on every team he played for save Chicago), enjoying a solid career in the 7-10 year range.
- Has he really arrived as an NHL goalie? Yes. Look, he played in front of the craptastic Oiler blue and delivered a reasonable SP. Kelly Hrudey at one time suggested the Oilers would be better off with JDD, but this season during a broadcast told everyone he'd made a mistake. He saw Dubnyk bad early but felt his mechanics added to the calm feet that arrived when he gained confidence meant the Oilers had a good young goalie.
- How Important is he to the organization? Too soon to tell, but he's made it this far, I don't see any reason to believe he can't grab and hold the starting job--even if they do hire Fasth.
Prediction for 2010-11: 30gp, 3.21 .902
Actual 2010: 35gp, 2.71 .916
A very nice rookie season
In the most horrible way, I still think it's funny that they have Khabibulin signed for so many years.
ReplyDeleteKhabibulin, Tom Renney, and Pat Quinn have done more combined for this hockey club than anyone since the dynasty.,
I'm admittedly a terrible judge of goalie talent.
ReplyDeleteI seem to recall a game against Detroit--it must have been fairly early in the 09/10 season where the Oilers lit up Howard. At the time, I could believe Howard was being played in the NHL. He went on to post a .924 that season. Anyway, Howard let in a number of brutal goals and the Oilers weathered a late surge from Detroit to win the game.
Same thing with Dubnyk... In the 09/10 season, he was lit up in an AHL game, then again at the NHL level. I had seen him bad and didn't think he would pan out.
I haven't done the analysis, but other than the 2 late surprising wins against Couver, was Dubnyk sheltered in his starts?
As for starting NK, yeah it was certainly a hard push for the lottery.
I haven't done the analysis, but other than the 2 late surprising wins against Couver, was Dubnyk sheltered in his starts?
ReplyDeleteI was wondering the same thing.
DD played 22 games against playoff teams, and 13 vs. non playoff teams.
Bulin also played against 22 playoff teams, but played 25 games vs non playoff teams.
This includes starts and relief efforts. It is hardly definitive but a rough analysis seems to point to the fact that DD didn't wind up being sheltered (at least on the quality of team).
Jay,
ReplyDeleteA couple different posters compared starts between DD and MVP in some older threads. (Don't have link handy)
DD had slightly tougher starts based on games played against playoff teams and non-playoff teams.
Tougher.
The chasm between DD and MVP's numbers behind the same team could hide 3 Titanics and the Bismark.
But remember, MVP has not lost the starters job.
They you go, Ducey beat me to the punch.
ReplyDeleteI seem to remember, early in the season when Khabibulin got injured and Dubnyk became the de facto number 1, that the only poor games he seemed to play were back-to-back games. I don't have the stats on me, but I do have a sense of remembering that when Dubnyk played a 2nd game, he struggled. Is it possible that Renney, remembering this, sheltered Dubnyk from too many starts until late in the season? Then, late in the season, is there a benefit to giving starts to Khabibulin, hoping he'll string a few good games together and regain some confidence going into next season, given he's under contract for the next two years?
ReplyDeleteOr am I just trying too hard to make sense of Renney's goaltender decisions? I mean, I'm all for sheltering the rookies, but it's not as if they didn't throw Hall, Eberle, and Petry to the sharks given the number of minutes they played, so it's not like Renney is all about holding back his rookies.
Wheat: Good points all, and there was definitely evidence that Dubnyk's btb games had some poor performances.
ReplyDeleteBut the solution was in OKC. I just don't understand why NK kept getting sent out there.
And props to AsiaOil on this one.
ReplyDeleteAt some point during the season, Dubnyk progressed from prospect/rookie to NHL goalie; at that point there was simply no good reason to play Khabibulin. At all. This isn't an argument I'm making, this is absolutely a fact.
ReplyDeleteThis is absolutely not a fact.
Hey, I hate the reKhab contract as much as anyone, but it was pretty evident that the Oilers were being very careful with Dubnyk's development. And considering the flash in the pan blowouts we've seen from NHL rookie goalies, rightly so. I'm pretty sure the coaches had a much better idea of how Dubnyk was responding to his workload and his wins and losses than we do too, considering they saw him practice near daily.
And considering they let Roli go partly for being too internally competitive, Khabby is obviously their choice as mentor.
Next season Dubnyk will feel more confident and hungrier for more starts and should get a bigger workload. The team will have more confidence in front of Dubnyk too. There was no point in pushing that relationship to the test in a rebuild season like last year.
Now that he's ready for that step, to be the number one guy, without the pressure of it being dropped on him in the midst of a FUBARed year, we can talk about what to do with ReKhab.
Khabibulin in the Mariposa County jail in AZ, with TV cameras would sure make interesting viewing for the fans.
ReplyDeleteBut the solution was in OKC. I just don't understand why NK kept getting sent out there.
ReplyDelete-
Yes you do LT. Between the stubbornness of the management group and their blatant pursuit of 30th place, playing Khabi made all the sense in the world.
I don't expect them (K-Lowe & V.03) to come right and announce that this was a bad signing but they could have used his off season troubles as an excuse and dumped him in the minors at some point. I don't think there was every a chance of that happening. I'm not sure where the Oil would have finished (somewhere between 25 & 29) if they played Dubnyk and Garon the whole season but they probably wouldn't have been dead last again.
spOILer: If they were concerned about Dubnyk's development (and he's not 20), then Gerber would have been a logical choice to spell him as needed.
ReplyDeleteI wonder about the stamina of Dubnyk if he can be a 60 game goalie. As WNO brought up, he doesn't seem to play well when he gets back to back starts. It wasn't until April against the Canucks that he put together two solid games in a row. I like Dubnyk, but the thing separating him and Pekka Rinne is a higher motor and more nimbleness. So I do wonder if he peters out as its gets later in games.
ReplyDeleteAs for MVP, thanks for coming out, but something tells me its still his job to lose.
I'm glad you brought this up LT. Playing NK only confirms that they were really "trying" to finish as low as possible, in fact, 30th was their goal I'm sure. If this was the case then they were literally trying to throw the season. I would bet this was their goal. If not then they did a piss poor job of putting a team together... again. Either way this is a horseshit way to run a professional sports organization. Indeed, if this what they were doing a plan such as this starts at the top which continues to have me convinced that success will never happen with the Katz/Lowe/Tambo triumvirate.
ReplyDeleteClarkenstein: Agree completely. They've talked themselves into being annual lottery winners.
ReplyDeleteWe'll know at the draft and then July 1. If they deal off NHL players at the draft and don't replace them via trade or July 1, then we're in the lottery for the third straight time.
There's a quote from the movie Casino (one of the greatest movies of all time, by the way) that applies here:
ReplyDelete"Either you were in on it or you were too stupid to see what was going on - either way, you're OUT".
Clarkenstein's got it right - either they don't have the intelligence to build a competitive team, or they're intentionally trying to fail in the interest of a "rebuild". Either way - Tambellini and Lowe shouldn't have the job security they seemingly do.
I'm of the firm belief changes at the top will be an absolute must if they're in the bottom-five again next year. It would be completely unacceptable. Time to make moves in the interest of getting better, sooner.
Excellent post LT and I think Clarkenstein nailed it - the plan this year was to lose as much as possible with the kids.
ReplyDeleteWins weren't the goal year - development was. Not saying I like it, just saying that was the plan.
It's the only thing that explained why they were willing to throw all but DD in the deep end.
And given the comment at the end of the season by the coaches, I'm not convinced they see the same thing regarding the goalie situation - unless they are covering for management's stupidity with Khabibulin's signing.
There is a long term danger of a culture of losing with this org and this summer could be a tipping point if they are going to stick to their runs and not "adequately" address the holes in the roster.
I was frustrated with all the starts Khabi was getting, but DD wasn`t getting more.
ReplyDeleteTo me, it sure looks like Khabi is done, but we won`t know what the organization thinks or knows until the summer plays out. Is there a buyout in the summer to save some $$ for Katz or do they sign a back up plan in case Khabi has another brutal year.
The last thought was it is possible Khabi had nagging injuries or didn`t fully recover from the back surgery. If that`s true, it sure was kept under wraps.
Personally, I would like them to flush Khabi - bury him in Hershey or the KHL and start fresh at training camp with a list of 2 or 3 taking a run at joining DD for the season opener.
rearb - the garbled speech of someone heading to rehab after one last binge.
Re Lowe, Tambellini and his crew: The old hockey chestnut - that the GM and coach of losing teams rarely survive to see the fruits of their labour.
ReplyDeleteLowe and Tambellini will be history, as soon as Katz figures out that he doesn't need these clowns anymore.
Lowe will probably end up in a cardboard face saving position, but Tambellini should be sought after by the next team looking to throw away a NHL season or two in search of the perfect draft picks.
We'll know at the draft and then July 1. If they deal off NHL players at the draft and don't replace them via trade or July 1, then we're in the lottery for the third straight time.
ReplyDeleteNot many NHL players left to trade these days! Hemsky, Horcoff, Whitney, and Gilbert, by my eye. The rest are youngin's and fringe players. If they manage to subtract from that list it would be pretty amazing. How could they argue that they are trying to compete?
I really liked Dubnyk this past season. He looked like he improved his side to side work and he has learned to compensate a bit better for his weak blocker side. There's still work to be done but it's nice to see the improvement.
A big thing I like from him too, is his off ice demeanor. He just seems like the nicest guy in the world and I can definitely see him in broadcasting once his career is finished.
LT, he might not be twenty, but he's never taken a full load at the NHL level. And giving him a full load in behind this team for his first ever year wouldn't exactly have been confidence building. They did. A good job putting him in a position where he could succeed.
ReplyDeleteWe decry the lack of patience with this organization, and then when they actually display some, we criticize them.
As for Gerber, well that would've been well and good if we had our see the future glasses on. At what point could anyone be certain that reKhab wouldn't regress to his own statistical norm? February? At that point what difference would it have made? Certainly not the difference expressed above--a whole season of goal differential based on save percentage.
I'm okay with giving Khabby the time from Feb to the end of the season to see if he could pull his shit together, keep the dressing room stable, the season is lost anyway.
But now that it is evident that Khabby couldn't get it together at any point last year, it is time to figure out an exit strategy and find other options.
I'm not sure that Fasth is that guy, but how much would a one year look-see cost? Seems like a reasonable gamble.
And the one thing we can take from the Khabby stats is that this team with decent netminding and a healthy Whitney might be closer to the playoffs than we think.
Ribs, obviously there's only two on your list that they might subtract--Hemsky and Gilbert.
ReplyDeleteHorcoff's clearly not going anywhere--unless Montreal wants another overpaid centre :P
If Khabby someday writes his memoirs, would anyone be totally surprised if there's a chapter at the end where he reveals that he was flat-out intentionally tanking starts last year?
ReplyDeleteI don't think it's likely that that's the case, but I'd allow for the faint possibility. I mean really, what does he care? He's got his last NHL contract, his career history (signing with bad Tampa and Chicago teams) indicate that he's never been too concerned about winning or his legacy, and as the only Cup-winning Russian goalie his reputation there is probably secure enough that any potential future KHL earnings won't be affected by anything he does in Edmonton for a bad team.
You never know.
As I said in the last thread, DD had his highest save percentage in professional hockey last season.
ReplyDeleteWe can look back with 20/20 hindsight all we want but the fact remains that the degree of success DD had was a little unexpected. We should not be surprised if he takes a step back this season.
The other thing to remember is that the Oilers relied upon Chabot (the tender coach) to help determine when DD would play. They were very concerned with his development.
DD had a good year. Managment might be somewhat responsible.
Khabibulin admitted himself it's tough staying in the games when you're that far out of the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteThat said, he's still done. The Oilers paid premium dollars and long-term for a guy who at best-case scenario would provide league average goaltending
My biggest fear this off-season is that the Oilers go out and sign Kaberle to a 4M per year deal to pay lip service to bolstering the defence.
ReplyDeleteI mean biggest fear besides trading one of those actual NHL players for a pocket full of mumbles.
Great points spOILer. I was one who thought NK would revert to his statistical mean at some point, and that the early derision was premature and based on a small sample. While he showed flashes of brilliance throughout the year, on average, he was less than what is expected from a starting NHL goaltender. There is probably no way to have fairly come to this conclusion until right now or in the latter part of the season at the earliest. Hence, I think the criticism of Oiler management is overstated on this issue. It is always easier in hindsight.
ReplyDeletespOILer: if that happens, I'll be personally blaming some of the posters in this message board.
ReplyDeleteI think AsiaOil made this point, and Spoiler up above, and I'll defer to AO on goalies but it seems important that DD isn't rushed into playing too many games so he can continue to work on his mechanics and habituate himself to his lessons properly. Yes, Gerber would have outplayed Khabi and should have seen more games if we were trying to win, but I think DD played the right number of games this season. I think 50-60 games should be his max next year.
ReplyDeleteAbout him not being 20 anymore, I think it was clear DD had some things to learn and he seemed to learn some of these things this year. It takes time to go from abstractly learning what to do and employing that knowledge in a game situation, and the lower game count should keep his head focused on these sorts of things.
The three goalie situation, with Khabi in the rafters for most games (maybe a few phantom injuries if needed), sounds like an ok solution for this coming season; I think having a 1B can help DD continue to grow into a bona fide starter in this league.
spOILer wrote:
ReplyDeleteWe decry the lack of patience with this organization, and then when they actually display some, we criticize them.
I don't think that's being hypocritical in this case.
Some might decry the perceived lack of patience in handling players most of the time, but in this case think the team is being overly cautious.
That's not the same thing as, for example, wondering whether it made sense for the Oilers to return Hall to junior for development and to postpone an ELC year, then turning around and suggesting the Oilers definitly keep RNH (or whoever) in the NHL the very next draft (although even that might not be hypocritical depending on your rationale).
I said a couple threads ago that NK will be at training camp--I bet my last nickel on it--but would
ReplyDeleteanybody do a Khabibulin for Commodore swap..?
Commie is dead money to the Blue Jackets(he played in the minors most of last season) and CBJ only has 1 goalie
signed for next year.The real money is pretty much a wash,the cap hits are the same.
Commodore isn't all that great so he'd fit right in on our back end,and at the very least he's an under 35 contract
so if we need to bury him it's not a problem.
Just spitballin' on a Sunday afternoon.
khab is supposed to be "the ultimate teammate" *cough strudwick*...
ReplyDeleteit was suggested by someone that katz was never going to field a winner in the current coliseum. this way of thinking seems to be holding more and more water, for me.
also, this notion that you need to suck in order to "develop" youth, is just straight sideways thinking. totally bonkers. you don't do it at any other level of development so why at the nhl.
with all the hyperbole among mgt and news ppl about how it's impossible to trade for top rate talent, we've all started to believe it and think of the draft as the only way to get top notch players. it's one of many and disappointing to see our team pursue it as the only recourse.
I mean biggest fear besides trading one of those actual NHL players for a pocket full of mumbles.
ReplyDeleteI've heard that the Oilers are pitching 83,13 and the 19th pick to NJD in return for Rolston, White and 4th pick.
At first I dismissed it out of hand, but after thinking about it, it makes some sense.
-NJD is captrung. $53MM on 17 players and Parise is going to need about $7MM. If the cap goes to 62.5, that leaves 2.5MM for 5 players.
-Rolston is 5.06MM on a +35 contract, Loophole can't bury it anywhere
-They are in "win now" mode with Zajac having 2 years left on his contract, Kovy, Parise in his prime, etc. A 4th is a good place to draft, but if they want immediate results, it makes sense to turn it into something else, especially if you can still draft 19th.
-Lou spent a ton to "audition" Kovy for 20 games. It worked, he signed him long term. I can see him thinking to same for 83.
I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen.
Can you imagine 83's silky smooth passes to Kovy?
Kovy could get 60 and 83 could get 90+ pts.
White has a NTC, so not sure how that part of it works out.
That would allow the Oilers to take Larsson 1st if they have Hub,RNH, and Couterier close as they would get one of them.
I wouldn't mind the move, but the bar gets set back to making the playoffs in the spring of 2014.
They bar might be there already.
Dubnyk's .916 Sv% this past season was the highest ever posted by an Oiler goaltender who played as many as 15 games. It's the new club record.
ReplyDeleteMind you, the NHL as a whole set a new Sv% record of .913 this season, so Dubnyk is just a little above that average. However, it's worth noting that lousy defensive teams, of which Oilers were definitely one, tend to have a lower save percentage, and that can't solely be attributed to crappy goaltending. The bottom five teams in the NHL had a save percentage of .902, the bottom ten teams .905. DD's .916, posted on the third-worst defensive team in the league, looks pretty decent in that light. He had a good year.
Btw, here are his (regular season) GP since he entered the WHL.
2002-03: 3 (WHL)
2003-04: 26 (WHL)**
2004-05: 65 (WHL)
2005-06: 54 (WHL)
2006-07: 43 (ECHL) + 4 (AHL)
2007-08: 33 (AHL)**
2008-09: 62 (AHL)
2009-10: 33 (AHL) + 19 (NHL)
2010-11: 35 (NHL)**
The pattern seems to be, get a cup of coffee in the league, then become a full-time backup (seasons marked **), then step into the starter's role in a major way. Let's see if that happens at the NHL level in 2011-12.
A couple different posters compared starts between DD and MVP in some older threads. (Don't have link handy)
ReplyDeleteWG: Here ya go ;)
I've heard the rumor as Hemsky, Cogliano, 5th rder to NJD for Rolston, White and 4th overall.
ReplyDeleteRolston and White are toast, so it's 83, 13 for #4OV.
Wow.
Thanks Bruce.
ReplyDeleteExcellent analysis.
LT: The question becomes, at what point does it become useless?
ReplyDeleteYou might get Couturier or Huberdeau out of that, but what are the odds of reaching over Hemsky?
Ah fuck it. There's no logic in this management group.
We all know the goalers progress by sundial - and trying to rush the process usually ends up crushing a career more often than not. That's why I refused to join the "play DD more" chorus last year. DD is a big kid who needs solid mechanics and positioning to make up for average athleticism. He's made progress but there's more to make next season. Young goalers get better through reps - but good reps - not sloppy ones that happen in B2Bs and playing 4 games in 6 nights. So they kept him rested and should do so for another season until his fundamentals are locked in and won't disappear under a heavy workload.
ReplyDeleteAs Ducey said - they were careful with him and Chabot played a role. Well it's about f**cking time somebody played a role in goalie development on this team. How many years did Peeters hang around doing exactly what? Chabot is the first guy with a clue we've had to coach our young goalies in a long long time - and the lack of quality coaching has been obvious.
As for next year - DD needs one more year of seasoning IMHO - 45 games as a 1A starter - then he should be ready for prime time in 2012-2013. But he's gotten over the biggest hill. NHL shooters have a book on him and went after his weaknesses (blocker and side-to-side mobility) but he was still able to put up quality numbers. That's a big deal in terms of development - but as always you need to sustain and improve.
My comp for Dubnyk has always been Sean Burke - quality big man who had a nice long career after he got on-track - and the comp still looks good to me.
FPB: Hemsky's a year away from leaving, so from that pov I think it's a good deal for him. Find a team you can settle in with and resume your career.
ReplyDeleteFor the Oilers, it's another year in the hinterland, but we kind of knew that anyway.
Do you think NK has 50 games in him this winter? We keep this up, we won't have to worry about drafting the next Crosby; we can just wait for his kid.
LT said...."I've heard the rumor as Hemsky, Cogliano, 5th rder to NJD for Rolston, White and 4th overall."
ReplyDeleteIf we could get both Larssen and Coutourier out of this draft then the "rebuild" is over - and you spend the rest of the summer ditching crap like JFJ, Mac, Struds and Fraser, signing decent bottom 6 vet forwards (short term overpays if necessary), a 1B goaler and a single top 4 dman. You would be competitive most nights but still probably get a quality dman in next years draft. Playoffs the next year.
The road to a quality team is there - but the guys driving the car have proven themselves to be drunks who left their glasses at the bar many times over - so I'm restraining my enthusiasm
LT: I don't think he has more than 35. It's an old wolf with a great career. At what point do you continue the humiliation for money? Both sides would be best off each other.
ReplyDeleteI've heard the rumor as Hemsky, Cogliano, 5th rder to NJD for Rolston, White and 4th overall.
ReplyDeleteOk, not to doubt your honesty LT, but what's the source on this?
LT - the Bulin contract was insane and that's obvious enough - but it's done so you have to try get something out of it. Could he play 50 next season - not likely - but all you need out of him is 40 next year and 20 games the year after if Dubnyk continues on his existing development curve. But if it's clear he's done then you try get out of the contract now and move on - no need to lose on purpose anymore and that's what playing last year's version of NK would be this upcoming year.
ReplyDeleteRolston is waiver fodder, White might be a nice one year vet to help Petry find his offensive game.
ReplyDeleteRolston and White come with NTCs, so that part of the deal would be a tough sell, but its a deal I would strongly consider. Hemsky is on his last year and Cogliano is cannon fodder now in my mind. The 4th overal pick is a nice asset for the team address a lot of needs quickly. It would mean another year of tank, but the rebuild would get a boost.
All that being said, I'd be surprised if Hemsky was dealt before the season starts. I would think some GM's would want to see some games to prove some sense of sturdiness to show he won't break down in five games after purchase.
Asiaoil: knowing we're going to be well below the cap the next two seasons, doesn't it make sense to buy out ReKhab in a "cash" sense (i.e. cap hit remains, we give him 1.25 million per year for the next four to "get lost)?
ReplyDeleteIn other words, could we sign a better veteran keeper than NK for 1.25 million per year for the next two seasons to "platoon" with Dubnyk?
I think the answer is almost certainly yes. But the trick would be Lowe and Tambellini more or less admitting the signing of Khabibulin was a mistake in the first place, which I somehow can't see happening.
spOiler: you make a very fair point re: the team being overly cautious and our complaints.
ReplyDeleteBut consider this. DD had player very few games in the season before Khabibulin broke down. It's as if Renney's hand had to be forced to play DD.
I tend to see it as fate stepping in so we could see what kind of goalie we had, not the result of a deliberate plan with the kid.
Also - Jones just signs w/the Oil. Wonder what the terms are.
I'm pretty sure we could get Jeff Deslauriers for under $1.25 MM.
ReplyDelete:|
Two-year deal, unknown $$$.
ReplyDeleteOops, sorry, that last was re: Jones. I'm writing and reading out of order here.
ReplyDeleteOk, with Jones, they did what I hoped they'd do and limit it to two years. As long as it's not an absurd overpay, I'll be mostly OK with this.
ReplyDeleteBut just for fun, I'll guess 1.2 cap hit.
Jones signed for 2 years, no $ yet.
ReplyDeleteSee, no playoffs until spring of 2014.
Jones signed for 2 years, no $ yet.
ReplyDeleteSee, no playoffs until spring of 2014.
Depends WG. I'm still skeptical about what Jones' "is", but if he's your 4th line LW, your team might be OK.
My problem is if they've signed him to be the 3LW behind Hall and Paajarvi. THAT...is a fast-track to another lottery pick.
So I guess I'm OK with it, assuming they add some actual top-nine veteran talent such that Cogliano/Jones are 2/3rds of an affordable 4th line.
*assuming Cogliano doesn't become a Devil, of course.
ReplyDeleteHBomb: No source, just a buddy who knows some things. I actually have zero credible contacts, but Edmonton is a funny town in that no one can keep a secret.
ReplyDeleteEventually, even I hear about it. :-)
Lowetide: I'll take your word for it. Now that it's been posted here, are we taking wagers for how long that exact rumor takes to pop-up on Hockeybuzz?
ReplyDeleteI'll set the over/under at one week.
Tyler tweets:
ReplyDeleteCongratulations @jonesry28 on winning the Oilers Shooting % Award. Past recipients - Brule ('10), Gilbert/Horcoff ('08) & Pisani ('06).
Hahaha!
Tencer says 1.5MM/yr.
v3.0 is in exactly the form I expect him to be.
Jones plays below replacement value. Therefore 2 years, 1.5MM each.
Oh well, Vish would have given 2.5MM.yr andn 3 years.
Progress?
ReplyDeleteI'll set the over/under at one week.
I'll take the over, but it will be an e4.
1.5 million per year?
ReplyDeleteI'll tolerate it, but for one season of good performance, when they wouldn't give Glencross 1.2, that's pretty generous.
But like I said before, it's not a 3 year deal, which is the important part. If Jones flops, he'll be off the books prior to needing to re-up 4/14/91.
Another sign of an incompetent GM in action, but the damage is limited.
HBomb: lol. The guy's a nutcase, but he'll probably buy the Preds and move them to Hoboken.
ReplyDelete1.5M is fine. It's too much and too long but at least it won't kill the bank account.
Now, with Hall, MP, Hartikainen and Jones on the roster there's no room for JFJ.
Hahahahahaha.
Right? RIGHT? I know. Wrong.
That New Jersey rumour would likely net the Oilers Larsson and Courturier/Huberdeau.
ReplyDeleteThe key to the Jones contract was keeping it to two years. The money was somewhat irrelevant.
Lowetide: too much? I'd think so. Too long would have been 3+ years. At least they didn't botch the term.
ReplyDeleteBottom six players should get two years max when signing new deals. Only exception should be a high quality 3C.
At what point could anyone be certain that reKhab wouldn't regress to his own statistical norm? February? At that point what difference would it have made? Certainly not the difference expressed above--a whole season of goal differential based on save percentage.
ReplyDeleteIf you were coming up with an intelligent projection for Khabby pre-season (ie. not just looking at his one good year in Chicago and going "OOOOOOOH! THAT!"), I can't believe you'd come up with anything much better than .900 or .905. And if that's the projection, why are you not just using him purely as a tool to develop DD?
Oh, and as for JFJ, I don't know what I fear more:
ReplyDelete- Jacques getting re-signed
or
- Strudwick being brought back
I'm hoping "neither" happens, but truly expect "both".
Hbomb, LT,
ReplyDeleteI actually expect the apron string to JFJ to be cut this summer.
The same talking heads and print guys who float the trial balloons (Khabby still has his job), were putting out the "This is JFJ's put up or shut up year" for most of the 2nd half of the season.
Sail on Baie Comeau Longshipman?
Woodguy:
ReplyDeleteYou have more faith in the Oiler regime being decisive than I do.
I'd hope they'd be signing Jones as a 4LW, bringing in a better 3LW via UFA, and leaving Hartikainen for another development year in the AHL.
I'm expecting no UFA signing, JFJ cut loose, and Harski/Jones behind Hall/MPS.
I'm fearing JF Jacques given another year and them running Jacques/Jones in the bottom six on LW.
Dammit Woodguy!! You're stealing my titles! :-)
ReplyDeleteHbomb,
ReplyDeleteHarikainen makes the team.
Book it!
More Finns please.
ReplyDeleteYou have more faith in the Oiler regime being decisive than I do.
Just reading the media tea leaves.
Dammit Woodguy!! You're stealing my titles! :-)
Sorry, I'll stop.
Been waiting for that sail on post for a while now. :)
a team that dealt 27 away for hopes and wishes and bragged about 83 being available doesn't seem like the kind of team that wants to try and win in 2012.
ReplyDeleteI hope I'm wrong but I imagine that proposed deal with NJ makes a lot of sense from the Oilers prespective because they are all about building up the pick stockpile and also they believe that until you announce you're trying to win, you can't be blamed for being losers.