Many years ago, the Montreal Expos had prospects named Raines and Shines (I'm not making this up). Raines had enormous talent, you could see excellence in everything he did; once he made the majors as a rookie, it was obvious that no baseball reason would keep him from a long career.
Shines? He was a "tweener" talent: good bat but not good enough for first base and he was a little shy with the leather when moved up the defensive (third base, catching) spectrum.
And so it was that Raines played 2500 big league games over a 23-year career and Shines played 1480 games in the minors over 16 seasons. Raines' page at baseball-reference is sponsored by "Amy's husband" who writes "our first baseball game together was Rock's first game back from the '87 collusion - 4 for 5, grand slam in the 10th to beat the Mets. She had a hero for life, and a year later, we were married. He remains her favorite; she remains mine." That was May 1, 1987. Razor Shines was on the Expos roster at the time, a 30-year old pinch hitter hanging on. His last major league game was played 13 days later, May 14. Raines, despite being drafted one year earlier than Shines, would play 15 more seasons and retire September 2002. Razor Shines played 68 MLB games, 10 as a position player.
Raines and Shines.
--
Alexandre Giroux 10-11
- 5x5 points per 60: 1.32 (10th among forwards but DNQ)
- 5x4 points per 60: nil
- Qual Comp: 7th toughest faced among forwards but DNQ
- Qual Team: 2nd worst available teammates among forwards but DNQ
- Corsi Rel: 5.3 (6th best among forwards but DNQ)
- Zone Start: 52.5% (8th toughest among forwards but DNQ)
- Zone Finish: 49.3% (15th best among forwards but DNQ)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 13 shots/7.7 (tied for 13th among forwards but DNQ)
- Boxcars: 8gp, 1-1-2
- Plus Minus: -2 on a team that was -52
- What do these numbers tell us? Along with his minor league numbers (70gp, 32-46-78) we can see the offensive talent Giroux delivers. He could probably post some solid numbers if an expansion draft came along. He has a nice Corsi and scored a goal during his cup of coffee.
- How could these numbers be better? Considering he played with Cogliano and Reddox (25%) and Cogliano and Jones (17%) I'd say these numbers are solid at EVs. Giroux didn't do a thing on the PP despite playing 3 minutes a night. Overall, I don't think he's going to threaten anyone currently on the skill lines but he's a fine option for callup.
- The Oilers didn't treat him very well. What now? They signed him to a 1-way deal at $500,000 no matter where he played. That's a pretty nice insult.
- Yeah but they didn't call him up until late. Right, because the club wanted to remain competitive at the AHL level while covering off big league injuries as best they could. Giroux would have been called up earlier based on merit but that's the job; he did get 8 games in the show this year.
- Well he's a free agent now, forget about him ever coming back. Okay. Although I'd think the Oilers could get him back for exactly the same deal as last season. Giroux has played in 39 NHL games now and he's one month from 30 years old. If he feels like there's a chance to build on something with Edmonton, I can see him re-signing. Otherwise, there will be plenty of AHL teams lining up for Giroux's services.
- He's a good AHL player. GREAT AHL player. Over 250 AHL goals since the lockout.
- Why can't he have an NHL career? Foot speed isn't great and now he's 30. An expansion draft could turn him into the modern Frank St. Marseille. Or he could go to Europe.
- Is there any way to get him onto the Oiler roster? Without injuries? Hmmm. I don't think so. You'd want him on a skill line and the Oilers just added four rookie skill wingers to go with Hemsky. Plus you have Hartikainen and Jones hanging around. It would be tough.
- Any chance he makes another NHL team? He's $500,000 (inexpensive) and gives your team a nice offensive option at the end of the roster. If he was a little faster and had a PK rep someone might take a chance. Still can't believe he didn't get any powerplay points.
Playing big league anything requires a modicum of skill in all areas. This dude simply can't skate, so therefore he fails to make the NHL.
ReplyDeleteIs there something here I'm missing?
The Edmonton Oilers 10-11 boasted several forwards who didn't need a stick. I think Giroux's flaws pale compared to some of the current Oilers.
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to imagine that if he had been given JFJ's at bats and the luxury of playing without and axe hanging over his we'd be griping about wasting a roster spot.
ReplyDeleteMust take a big man to put the frustration of seeing certain players ahead of you in the show while you consistently fill the net in the A.
Unfocused and lazy. He wouldn't even need the footspeed if he knew a thing about positional hockey. No sympathy for this guy whatever.
ReplyDeleteHow on earth did Cleary miss that?
ReplyDeleteWatching Giroux this year reminded me of watching Nedved in his second Oilers tour. Terrific skill but little speed or drive. I really hoped they would both be better than they were.
ReplyDeleteCzerwonka!
ReplyDeleteThat was a terrific play by Czerwonka. Beauty.
ReplyDeleteLT,
ReplyDeleteI must say, that was my favorite intro I've read yet.
Wonderful.
Frelbo - That is just an excellent comparison. Never thought of that.
ReplyDeleteI agree with LMHF#1...its hard to cheer for a guy when he leads himself to his own undoing, if he could have polished his game in some other facet(s), he might be a player. But the fact that he was hellbent on trying to be a one-dimensional scorer at the NHL level leaves him a very small window to crawl through.
ReplyDeleteAt least Giroux tried to be a one-dimensional player. The Oilers sent plenty of no-dimensional players out there last year, many of them on the ice at the same time.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, Giroux's hardly a solution to any of Edmonton's problems. But I'm sure he'd be no worse than Jacques, who in his time with the Oilers, has only mastered the attempted late-hit on a defenceman who passed the puck two seconds earlier only to crash into the boards and elicit oohs from Rexall patrons starving for anything remotely resembling excitement.
My dislike of Giroux is more visceral than most. With that frame and reflexes, i've met many a guy who could've been a star in the show. Even i might not have done so bad. He's wasted it. Disgusts me on a few levels.
ReplyDeleteI kind of liked the taste of Sweet Maries back in the day.
ReplyDeleteSometimes it Studwicks and Sometimes it Girouxs - the difference is a few million $ and a heap o'pride.
ReplyDeleteLowetide: Oilers boasting several non-NHL players doesn't make this career AHL'er any better.
ReplyDeleteShovelling fleas across a barnyard, comes to mind.
All I need to say about this player is "Shawn Couturier Part 2".
ReplyDeleteEnough said.
All I need to say about this player is "Shawn Couturier Part 2".
ReplyDeleteSo is this one of those Star Wars things, where the later-numbered episodes come out first?
Enough said.
ReplyDeleteWell, that part I can agree with.
Barnes tweet...
NHL execs starting to arrive at worlds. Just saw Tambellini and Lowe en route to US/CZE game.
Oufff I tough u'd say SEAN coudln't skate again.
ReplyDeleteOufff I tough u'd say SEAN coudln't skate again.
ReplyDeleteWell, I think it was IMPLIED that Alexandre GIROUX can't play ON Rob's TEAM.
I think the speed of the NHL is just too much for Giroux, and I don't just mean his skating. A lot of players with skating no better than Giroux's have had NHL careers. The very things that kept Schremp off the Oilers are the same things that are keeping Giroux out of the NHL. He needs time and space to be effective (which isn't as readily available in the NHL) and he's not great at creating it for himself.
ReplyDeleteA scout once told me a great thing about hockey that is so true. Hockey is one of the only sports in the world where you need to learn TWO sets of skills in order to be an effective player. BEFORE you can even learn how to play this game, you need to know how to skate. There are (as with everything certain exceptions i.e. Gretzky etc.), but for the overwhelming majority of players, you need to know how to skate FIRST before you can play.
ReplyDeleteYes, it's true. If you can't skate, I don't want you on my team. Therefore, you can have both Giroux and Couturier. As for myself, I'm not interested for the obvious reason I just mentioned.
Again, I will use Giroux as the example. He is an excellent AHL player (as was mentioned in this blog), but will never make the NHL. It's not for his lack of talent, because he can snipe, that's for sure. It's that "extra step" that separates NHL players from AHL players (which he unfortunately does not have). If you ask ANY PROFESSIONAL scout, the first thing he will tell you (with respect to what he looks for) is a player's ability to skate. If said player is at least "good" in that department, we can go from there.
Cheers.
One comparable that also comes to mind in the sporting world is the sport of Water Polo. I don't care how good of a Water Polo player you are, if you can't swim or are not a strong swimmer you can't keep up and will hurt your team. As with hockey, if you can't skate, your chances of making it to the NHL are dramatically reduced.
ReplyDelete@rob.van.dam: Not sure if you're implying Gretzky was a poor skater, but as one who saw him play hundreds of games let me assure you, he wasn't. Unconventional, yes. But there were several aspects of his skating where he was quite simply the best I've ever seen. His first step was exquisite. Won more races to the puck than anybody. And good luck catching him from behind.
ReplyDeletewoah...could be the first water polo metaphor!!!
ReplyDeletecomparing giroux to couturier must be done with a tongue in cheek as a way of enflaming mini-bure, right? otherwise, it's a ridiculous comparison.
The over-dependence on skating is a mistake many observers make. Giroux's problem is with playing hockey, not skating. He's not fast , but a team full of fast skaters gets you nowhere fast. They need to be able to play the game and it is much more important to have solid technique resulting in balance, turning ability, strength on your feet etc. Jacques for instance hurts himself because (among other things), he may be fast but he cannot skate in a technical sense and throws his body all over the place so awkwardly. The reason Mr. Hartikainen can hammer people, even with his relatively medium size, is that he's technically sound when skating into his hits. Omark can withstand a barrage of giant defenders in the corners and hold the puck because he's exceedingly strong on his feet, positions his body perfectly and can shift and move at any second.
ReplyDeleteDon't become over-reliant on skating, and especially skating speed, when evaluating talent. Steve Kelly says hi. DOAN! DOAN! DOAN!!!!
Well I'l go tell Luc Robitaille he can't be on your team.
ReplyDeleteI hope you'l welcome Cogliano with open arms.
I guess Mike Ribeiro and Brad Richards would get the shove too.
Couturier's ''Problem'' is his first step, not his strides. Ain't something powerskating with a figure skating lady can't fix.
fpb:
ReplyDeleteSince the scouts have your man falling like a rock in the draft rankings, exactly what is it about him that makes you feel so positive about him, especially when the scouts seem to think he's not the player everyone thought he was a year or more ago?
I admit I know nothing about him.
The sports world's fascination with speed is an interesting thing.
ReplyDeleteWe see a guy flat-out fly and it speaks to us on such a primal level that we're ready to believe he can do anything athletically.
Beyond guys like Cogliano having long and profitable NHL careers based mostly on their skating, there are a ton of guys who make the NFL as WRs even though they can't catch the ball (which is only the entire point of the position).
Nothing says potential like speed.
Couturier's ''Problem'' is his first step, not his strides. Ain't something powerskating with a figure skating lady can't fix.
ReplyDeleteWhats more likely to occur:
Couturier's skating problems being fixed or RNH gaining 25 lbs?
As for Couturier's first step just being the problem, it seems there is more than that. In the Redline blurb I posted yeasterday they identified his inability to get past defenders and his lack of a second gear.
It would appear that SC will be a fine NHL center, maybe the best from this draft, but your blind adherence to the notion he is by far and away best prospect based on incomplete math, his scoring against other teams and now the fact his skating can be fixed, is becoming comical.
Is okay to like the guy but there isn't anything you have raised to show that the scouts will get it wrong.
Common - The difference people miss is between those who make plays at speed and those who just move quickly.
ReplyDeleteIt's everything when evaluating these guys (unless they are truly great positional defenders, who can get by with slower puck reaction skills).
Renaldo Nehemiah.
ReplyDeleteTo me it is obvious that there must be something other than skating that has SC ranked lower than RNH. I think it highly likely that his skills (shooting passing, vision, sense etc) aren't as good as RNH's, for the order to be the way that it is.
There are two kinds of speed:
ReplyDeleteThere's the kind of speed someone is born with. These types generally make a fast name for themselves, live off their natural born skills, then as often as not fuck up and disappear.
The other kind of speed is when someone works as hard as humanly possible to develop every facet of their game. In time, experience and remaining calm in all situations allow said player to appear far quicker than they should. There are hundreds, possibly thousands of micro decisions made every game, and the player who is the most developed is going to generally outplay the opposition.
Then there are the bums, who have not speed, or the willingness to improve, due to an inflated sense of self belief. These players are named Rob Schremp.
Couterier didn't exactly handle pressure very well after the world juniors. Didn't want to talk to the media at all.
ReplyDeleteI don't think that's a good fit for the fishbowl of edmonton.
Larsson is my pick
has anyone spent any time watching Swe at the world's?
ReplyDeletehow's our 91 looking?
Slow foot speed, doesn't like getting interviewed...
ReplyDeleteI wonder why his draft stock is falling?
Sounds like a third round pick, lol.
Yes, it's true. If you can't skate, I don't want you on my team. Therefore, you can have both Giroux and Couturier. As for myself, I'm not interested for the obvious reason I just mentioned
ReplyDeleteWhy do you continually compare Couturier to Giroux? Giroux was selected in the 7th round, 213th overall. There is a very strong possibility that Sean Couturier is a top 5 pick, possibly even top 3. This is simply not a good comparison.
The fact that Giroux has been able to score at a PPG in the AHL means that he's more than covered his draft bet. Anyone expecting anything more out of a 7th round pick is being foolish.
Dennis,
ReplyDeleteWho cares about 91, Lowe is too busy signing Jagr to a 3 year contract after his hat trick today!
He realy wants to play with Hemsky you know!
What I find is helpful is making absolute statements about future events that not only dependent on unpredictable variables like injury, but also on intrinsic motivation (which is a far more subjective and idiosyncratic variable by far).
ReplyDeleteWhich, of course, is why scouting is a bit of an art, and a science.
And, it is Larsson all the way.
SK: it would be refreshing to talk about real players:)
ReplyDeleteAs much as I'm dumb enough to buy into the R N-H hype, the tiny invisible people who talk to me insist it's going to be Larsson.
ReplyDeleteWith some kind of earth shattering deal involving the Avs, who with a pair of bona fide NHL centres, suddenly will not want to draft that pesky Red Deer player.
I read Hasek is tearing it up in the KHL. He apparently has no desire to play in the NHL anymore, but I have an irrational fear that Tambo could lure him back.
ReplyDeleteAlso Larsson...strong muscular legs, squee, monster. That is all.
Playing big league anything requires a modicum of skill in all areas.
ReplyDeleteSee: MacIntyre, Steve and Jacque, Jean-Francois.
Ducey: Because your arguement is based off one game with no implications whatsoever exept showboating. As for the weight thingy i don't know what point you're trying to make. He's a small guy now and he'd still be a small guy in the NHL if he put 25 pounds on, there's also a risk of failing there.
ReplyDeleteJoel Ward just looked like a better player than the Sedins for 6 straight games and it was in the playoffs.
I don't think I need to go further.
Hunter: Continued progression despite mononucleosis, absolute domination of his peers (+55 on a team with minuses), scoring at a near average pace against the top 6 of his league, having a very high percentage of his scoring coming from ES.
FPB, I think Couturier is top 2 myself, and I can't figure out what the major knock against him is that would drop him out of the top 3.
ReplyDeleteI think you're missing Ducey and Hunter's points though. They're basically saying that the consensus from the scouts seems to be that there's something lacking in SC's game.
While the scouting report Ducey quoted from refers to one game, there are obviously similar sentiments being expressed by the majority of scouts across the preponderance of games they've seen Couturier play this season.
A guy that puts up impressive stats in junior, that somehow don't transpose to the NHL isn't exactly unheard of. For what it's worth I still think the best player this draft is Larsson, followed by Couturier. That said, RNH sure has all the scouts and lots of very good hockey men buzzing about him.
The number crunching is all well and good, but they are particularly ineffective here since we don't have all the variables to plug into the formulas to come up with a accurate result. There are a lot of keen minds out there chiming in on the issue. It would be some kind of exceptional hubris to consider limited and incomplete statistics, coupled with not having even seen any of these kids play, to go along non-existent scouting experience, as superior to the scouting community's consensus.
Uni : My problem with accepting the scouts as a factor (More than incomplete stats, although it's fragments of how we often judge an NHL player)
ReplyDeleteAre those:
A: The only research I've seen tends to say the scouts as a whole perform less or equal to the incomplete numbers, even if it's 3 years it still speaks largely. (Just boxcars)
And
B: There's some types of players with glaringly low chances of success that keep getting drafted (The guys with 5 points under their GP or Goalies).
I think ultimately traditional scouting will be replaced by in depth statistical analysis.
Ducey: Because your arguement is based off one game with no implications whatsoever exept showboating. As for the weight thingy i don't know what point you're trying to make. He's a small guy now and he'd still be a small guy in the NHL if he put 25 pounds on, there's also a risk of failing there.
ReplyDeleteAh, I see. My reliance on a scouting report is irrational.
But when you make a bald assertion outlining SC's skating problems and how they can be fixed by a figure skating coach, thats rational and reliable.
If RNH put on 25 lbs he would be 6'1" 195lbs. Thats plenty big.
I don't care whether the Oilers draft RNH, Larssen, or SC. I don't prentend to know which one is the best and will leave it to the professionals.
My problem with your posts are that you believe you know better than everyone else and the evidence you are relying on is insufficient to support your conclusion.
I think it is a bit presumptuous to think that (good) NHL scouting does not already utilize statistical analysis as a tool.
ReplyDeleteAaah, remember the heady days when computers were going to usher in the new "paperless" society?
Hoil: Well that's part of the deal. What is used as an arguement is the ''consensus of everyone'' not the good guys.
ReplyDeleteIf you tell me, well all the 5 top scouts in generating NHL players relative to theyr draft picks like this guy, well it's not the same animal.
Ducey: I say that because some players have had the same problems and became good/great NHL players (Robitaile, Ribeiro etc)
It was kind of to say that while it's feasable RNH puts on 25 pounds it's also possible COuturier fixes it's first stride. And it ain't illogical because it's scouting. It's illogical because it's one game without any impact for some guys.
ReplyDeleteAnyone know if Oil Change is going to continue into this draft?
ReplyDeleteThe conversations for this pick would be really interesting to watch.
fpb: Your argument that Luc Robataille was a lousy skater, yet a good NHL'er doesn't exactly thrill me.
ReplyDeleteIt's too much akin to that "She's no Miss World, but she's got a great personality" description of a blind date.
re Jagr: Since I used to want the Oilers to dress their old timey lineup against Dallas in the 90's - feeding them PCP in the dressing room between periods to give them that extra boost - I suppose there's nothing wring with the idea.
Joel Ward just looked like a better player than the Sedins for 6 straight games and it was in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteI don't think I need to go further.
NHL top 10 playoff scoring leaders as of today:
Ht Wt Name Pts
6 ' 02 202 Ryan Kesler 15
5 ' 11 194 Pavel Datsyuk 14
6 ' 01 218 Joel Ward 13
5 ' 08 176 Martin St Louis 13
6 ' 02 225 Ryane Clowe 13
6 ' 04 208 Vincent Lecavalier 12
6 ' 02 194 Patrice Bergeron 12
5 ' 11 191 Steve Downie 12
5 ' 11 172 Claude Giroux 12
5 ' 09 183 Brad Marchand 11
6 ' 01 195 Logan Couture 11
6 ' 02 201 Teddy Purcell 11
Avg Size: 6 ft 197 lbs
fpb: What exactly makes you believe Couturier's going to even want to fix his allegedly terrible skating technique? because you, his number one fan in this Oilers message board wishes it to be true?
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, between the ages of 18 and 21 I managed to put on 20 pounds of muscle. And it was really, really easy to do.
I think ultimately traditional scouting will be replaced by in depth statistical analysis.
ReplyDeleteYou should take a tour past Baseball Prospectus. They have some huge math brains over there analyzing everything about baseball.
Baseball of course is much easier to assess because there are a limited number of outcomes for each play.
However, I don't think they have come up with anything close to a mathematical formula that allows them to rank draft picks. All the MLB teams still employ armies of scouts - for good reason.
If baseball can't invent a way to beat the scouts, I don't think hockey, with its huge number of variables, will be able to.
I'd be interested in your evidence that says some guy in his basement beat out the NHL scouts in 2 out 3 years.
Ducey: Check out JW's articles
ReplyDeleteThere is a historical set of percentages of players picked by draft order & round who go on to a measure of NHL employment.
ReplyDeletePlayers picked in the first round during the 90s had a 63% chance of becoming a career NHL player. Second round you had a 1 in 3 chance, third round was around 12%.
Given those odds, I would bet that there were a lot of gambles made on long shots, especially after the second round. Betting on higher end potential (see: boom/bust) at the expense of more reliable bottom end guys probably hurt some teams overall draft performance.
If you can't Skate, you can't play hockey
ReplyDeleteWhoa - stop with the big Einstein-like analysis - we are just little minded people who have trouble dealing with such things.
Ducey: Justifying's the scouts existence by their existence is a pretty circular argument.
ReplyDeleteI think there's still scouts in the MLB because of the so many levels they're are. And the nature of the sport.
There's USA, Canada, Dominican Republic etc, but the thing gets more complicated because it's not even the same things in the countries.
In the USA you can be drafted out of HS, College etc... and even in HS and College there's weak and great programs.
Plus the divergence between the positions. 25 HR can be a tweener for a 1B, but an all-star for SS.
fpb:
ReplyDeleteSomehow I get the impression that you would like to do away with the human race, and replace it with machines.
I have no proof of this. Only a suspicion.
Hunter: Hello, my name is Skynet. How was your day?
ReplyDeleteAnother question I have about the "math" drafting is how is that ranked according to drafting for need?
ReplyDeleteexample: You are faced with a plethora of serviceable players at your draft position, but none of them play your established position of need. If you make a "reach" pick to grab a player at your required position your chances of having him turn out will in all probability be worse than if you picked a player with less risk at a position you already have depth in.
Now you are faced with (draft risk) X (trade risk) to get a player at your position of need, so you haven't really bettered your odds by picking the best available player.
We will just call you Hal, fpb.
ReplyDeleteDucey: Justifying's the scouts existence by their existence is a pretty circular argument.
ReplyDeleteThey justify their existence as nothing better exists.
I looked for any Willis articles pointing out how someone beat the draft and couldn't find anything. I am sure you have them handy.
I did find a lot of artlces on HP where he is analyzing the 2011 draft crop using a mix of math and *gasp* scouting reports.
A long time ago in a universe far far away - some would call it the pre-computer age, FPB might consider it pre-Cambrian - I used to play a tabletop game called APBA Baseball. It used a combination of cards, boards, and dice, and did a pretty darn reasonable job of reproducing baseball situations and outcomes. In the hundreds of games that I played, I learned quite a bit about percentages and how to play them. The incremental nature of baseball lent itself perfectly to this application.
ReplyDeleteA little later in a universe almost as far away, I played another tabletop game called Strat-O-Matic Hockey. It did a poor job of having the "feel" of a hockey game, ignoring certain key aspects of the game entirely, and I quickly tired of it and gave it up. The one thing I learned was that hockey is fiendishly difficult to capture as a game of percentages. The flow of hockey was quite impossible to capture.
What I take out of those experiences today is that I would bet real money that scouting and drafting by statistics only would be a much more successful endeavour in baseball than in hockey. It would still be a helluva lot less than perfect, mind.
Dennis, 91 looked good today. I only caught the 3rd but Romanuk and the other guy in the booth (Mike Johnson?) and Crawford in the studio were all pretty happy with his play.
ReplyDeleteApparently his linemates are relying on him pretty heavily to drive the bus.
SWE's PP though looks like an Oiler invention.
Bruce: When I was a kid visiting my grandfather, there was this old timey "electric football" game in the basement. You would set up the 11 man teams(yes, it was American football), flip this switch made out of bakelite or whatever they called it, and the tin grid would hum and haw, making the players vibrate all over the place in a quasi-realistic approximation of real football.
ReplyDeleteIs this what you're driving at?
period*
ReplyDeleteThen there was the table hockey game, Montreal vs Toronto - with 2-D tin players that all had the same faces, no helmets(lol), or goalie facemasks.
ReplyDeleteBest of all, it came with all of these fantastic innovations, like an electric scoreboard, and a 20 minute perdiod ending buzzer - none of which actually worked.
I remember playing Strat-O-Matic. I actually liked it.
ReplyDeleteIt was somewhat senseless on some occasions but funny.
APBA was a wonderful game. The Johnny Bench card maybe 1970 was the craziest thing ever. I played it many times with friends, learned a lot about baseball.
ReplyDeleteThe football game we had lit up on plays based on what the offense and defense would do. My brother and I would cheat so we could see "td" light up by calling blitz and draw plays at the same time.
My favorite toy as a kid was the table hockey game. My Dad stepped on it one time ("shouldn't leave stuff on the floor, boy") but it actually improved the game.
The RD could score from way back in his own zone because the game had been stepped on. That was the "Bobby Orr" side for me and my brothers when we were kids.
Here is the link for JW's article where math beat the scout 2/3 years (supposedly).
ReplyDeletehttp://www.coppernblue.com/2009/6/23/923029/2009-nhl-draft-revisiting-1998
Personally I don't really find the article too informative unless it uses every draft elible player and then ranks them numberically based on percentage of team offence. JW left out a bunch of players that would mess that calculation up. So basically you need to use a scouting report to beat the scouts (that could still be useful but kind of diminishes the thought that scouts are not needed).
And it does not take into account where you slot non CHL players.
I wonder where RNH and SC wind up with this stat?
Jamie: He left them out because the method was not applicable, or would be shaky because some Euro play on pro teams and contribute little to nothing on their draft year numbers wise.
ReplyDeleteBut I think when you use one bassin of players and it indicates some small time method beats scouts, it indicates something.
FPB
ReplyDeleteIMO it is impossible to make any judgements off that article because it is incomplete. If you wanted to really test whether %of team offence was a predictor of future performance you would need to calculate %team points for EVERY (draft eligible) player on EVERY CHL team and then use the top 30 as your first round CHL selections. Then compare that to the first 30 CHL players taken and see which is better. The way it was done in the article there could have been 15 (pick a number) players that had a high % but never made the NHL (and thus making the math method less accurate). By looking at the comments section there were 4 mentioned by one person that were not included and changes the data alot.
This stat may be fantastic but there would need to be a more complete study before you can make any conclusions off it.
I think it is naive to think that strictly objective data can be used to fully evaluate all these kids. There are too many variables (pedigree, body type, skating style, work ethic, intelligence, type of team they play on, team mates, etc etc) that will have a huge influence on how these kids develop. You need to meld subjective analysis with objective data.
@Hunter: Haha, We had that electric football game too. You might as well have tried to represent football with an Etch-a-Sketch. :)
ReplyDeleteTabletop hockey OTOH was a mechanical game and hella fun to play. I had several variations that went from mini-game (two skaters and a goalie per team) to skaters who could spin but not move, and then later versions that had the skating lanes and the goalies who could move up in the crease to cut down angles and stuff. One year my brothers and I had a league where we kept stats and everything. We were all Leaf fans so we each had six Leafs on our "team". I was the youngest so I got stuck with Bruce Gamble in goal while they got Bower and Sawchuk. My centre was Mike "Shaky" Walton who wound up the season with 50 goals and 1 assist. (I had a patented play that was hard to stop when executed perfectly.)
APBA (and Strat-O-Matic) was neither electric nor mechanical. There were eight boards for the eight on-base situations, every player had his own card with a range of possibilities that were triggered by dice. So very much an intellectual game rather than a physical one.