As much as we read and discuss prospects, you never really know about them until they arrive in a league with all of the measuring sticks. When these kids play an entire NHL season then we're able to see their style, their speed, their grit and their instincts on display. And of course the math we know allows us to compare them to past rookies and perhaps project them into the future.
Even then, one season isn't always enough to really know a player. Magnus Pääjärvi has all kinds of possibilities but there's a wide range of player-type he could become.
Pääjärvi spent 20% of his EV ice-time with Sam Gagner and Linus Omark; 8.21% with Shawn Horcoff and Jordan Eberle; 7:12 with Gagner and Ryan Jones. He did not get the push enjoyed by the other two rookies, but it's also true that he didn't force the issue with his offensive play.
Magnus Pääjärvi 10-11
- 5x5 points per 60: 1.36 (8th among regular forwards)
- 5x4 points per 60: 3.45 (6th among regular forwards)
- Qual Comp: 9th toughest among regular forwards
- Qual Team: 12th best teammates among regular forwards
- Corsi Rel: 3.2 (7th best among regular forwards)
- Zone Start: 51.6% (5th easiest among regular forwards)
- Zone Finish: 52.4% (4th best among regular forwards)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 180/8.3% (8th among F's>100 shots)
- Boxcars: 80gp, 15-19-34
- Plus Minus: -13 on a team that was -52.
- What do these numbers tell us? Unlike Hall and Eberle, Pääjärvi did not enjoy a feature role with the Oilers at the start of the season. When he finally moved up the depth chart, it had more to do with injury than his own performance. You never know until you see a player and break out the math, but he isn't tracking as a clear top 6F option. Caveat: We need to remember he's a teenager.
- How is he in the other disciplines? Without the puck, he looks miles and miles better. His CorsiRel is solid for where he played and the men he played against and he showed terrific chem with Omark when they were together. We can't say "sky's the limit" but if he ends up being Bengt Ake Gustafsson no one should complain.
- How could these numbers be better? Hmmm. It's a pretty good rookie year aside from the offense; I don't recall him getting as many chances as the other two rookies. The argument goes "put him with better players and he'll perform" but this sort of proves the point that he's likely a complementary player. How could these numbers be better? More scoring chances and more goals.
- Do you like him? Like him a lot. He's got size, Pääjärvi has to be the fastest Oiler in at least a decade (when did Marchant fly away?) and he's skilled. PLUS the young man has a strong defensive conscience, possibly too strong. Speed can be used on offense and defense, and added to his size and defensive mindset the young man qualifies as having a wide range of skills. Love that player type.
- What the hell does that mean? Well, he abandoned the scoring zone early and often--at times when the Oilers still had a good chance of retaining the puck (or at least entering a scrum). I haven't seen that kind of dedication to defense from a forward since Oates and Peca and those are older player skills. And those guys are centers! The last winger to play that way might have been Bill Lesuk.
- That's good. Not really. It kind of speaks to instinct and previous coaching, and the Oilers are going to need to work on it. Anyway, if you have the puck in the offensive zone, Pääjärvi should either be fighting for the puck, in pursuit of the puck, going to the net or perhaps cheating a little if he's the high man coming back. But if he's abandoned the zone with the blue then that's really early.
- Anything else? He doesn't use his size much at all. He's a big puppy out there. Pääjärvi avoids traffic because that's the way he's been coached imo, make sure you're available for an outlet pass or ready to haul ass. I don't think he's chicken (this entire Don Cherry "soft Euro" crap has to end in my lifetime. Anders Hedberg, Borje Salming and that generation put it all to bed almost 40 years ago and we're left with quacks like Cherry being allowed in front of microphones) and expect he'll improve in this area as time rolls along. How does Detroit get their guys to stand in front of the net and block out the sun?
- What kind of role will he be able to fill as a mature player? There are two or three possibilities. I can see him moving to center (again? yes again) because he has those instincts that allow him to see the big picture (he was always back at center ice, and on this team that was showing excellent instinct!) and he clearly understands marking his man. I can also see him filling a role as a quality 2-way winger on a mature shut down line, and of course he should eventually be an excellent option for the point on the PP. He's an excellent passer and makes good decisions.
- What won't he be? I don't think he's going to be the same calibre offensive player as Hall and Eberle. No sin in that, but it's a distinction we can probably make right now. Pääjärvi's shooting percentage was 7.5 last year in the SEL and improved slightly this season in the NHL.
- Who does he remind you of? After seeing him for a year, I'd say it's Gustafsson. That's a really good player btw. Do you remember reading about the old timey Habs? They had a LW named Gilles Tremblay and legend has it that Toe Blake took him aside after his rookie season and talked to him about his game. The legendary coach lauded Tremblay's defensive game, but told him he'd need to score more goals. "Take care of the checking and I'll show you how to score enough to stay in the league" said coach Blake. I suspect the coach talked to him about spending more time in the scoring zones. Or maybe he could just watch all of Detroit's wingers.
Prediction for 2010: 66gp, 12-18-30 (.455)
Actual 2010: 80gp, 15-19-34 (.425)
Teenager has wide range of skills
How's about they just put him back on defence?
ReplyDeleteI see perhaps a young Hossa.
ReplyDeleteThese numbers go well with what we were told pre draft don't they? I seem to recall the scouting reports saying he has all the speed/size/skills but there were questions about scoring and high end offence. That is exactly what we are seeing.
ReplyDeleteHis numbers don't look that different (and where they're different, Paajarvi's are better) than Loui Eriksson's 59 game rookie year (6-13-19, -3) with the Stars in 06-07. And Eriksson was 21 years old at the time, coming off a full year in the AHL.
ReplyDeleteAnd Eriksson is another Swedish winger with a lanky frame, good wheels and who had questions about his top-end offense heading into the NHL.
I don't know why more people don't pursue that comparison - what am I missing?
jon: Well, when we're looking for comparables it's always best to find ones that progressed along a reasonable path. Smarter men and women than me would call Eriksson an outlier--perhaps an unlikely career path if not (as seen with Eriksson) impossible.
ReplyDeleteWhat did Eriksson do in the SEL? Maybe we'd find some clues there.
I think he could become either a Hossa or a Jere Lehtinen of the Dallas Stars. Keep in my he is just a teenager and the Sedin twins didn't light it up until their mid 20's.
ReplyDeleteWith his teens oficially over, maybe we'll start seeing him get more physical next season.
ReplyDeleteI wish we had numbers available from when these guys were kid kids. No teenagers see to pile up the points in the SEL, so it's hard to look the numbers up and get any idea about the guy's offensive upside.
It would be nice to know that he put up 2.5 ppg or something as a 15 year old.
I posted in another thread a while back that his speed is a thing of beauty to watch, both the acceleration and top end full out stuff. More agile than Cogliano on his blades which should help as he progresses. He is getting a little greasier (more comfortable/confident?) as well, Omark effect? He has shown he can find the net, now to continue this going forward. He'll be interesting to watch progress.
ReplyDeleteHe is already 200lbs. At 6'3" I can see him cruising around at 210 or 215 lbs in a few years.
ReplyDeleteWith that speed he will be tough to handle. Some more experience will allow him to manage the tough stuff. He looked uncomfortable with it this year.
At the beginning of the year he was firing a lot of those hopeful snappers from well out. It seems that he was getting more "garbage goals" in the last part of the season.
Maybe he, Lander and Omark fit together as a triple crown line?
I'm less worried about him now and his long term scoring potential I was say 62 games into his rookie year.
ReplyDeleteI always look for the ways that guys score their goals just to see how much potential is there. Right off the bat we can see that 14 will do that little curl move and go to the middle or else he can score in tight and on seemingly bad angles. Hall will drive the net and he's also got a laser of a shot that should pay off once he starts shooting from better angles.
It took me a long time to get around to seeing how 91 could score but by the end of the season he was driving the net with more aplomb and he was cutting to the middle to get better angles for his shot.
He's got the size to be able to hang around the net and score some garbage goals and he's got the speed to take guys wide but he still doesn't have the shot of a 4 or the smarts of a 14. Still, he should be able to get 25 goals and maybe more depending on how his skill progresses.
Defensively, the guy should be a gem.
Size, power and speed and a rare want for defensive play given his age. He should be a top six outscore and elite PKer
Hossa.
ReplyDeleteUnless he's chicken.
Hossa went 15-15-30 in 60 G (.500)with OTT in his second year after being drafted. He played in the OHL for a year first. Might account for the slightly better numbers.
ReplyDeleteOne stat not mentioned is penalties drawn. One of these days... in the distant future of an alternate universe, when the Oilers have a real powerplay... drawing penalties will be a useful contribution.
ReplyDeleteHe scored a few backdoor crease goals this year, so we know he can do that. He also got a couple with nice wristers, however his shot quality seems inconsistent. And he drove the net a little more towards the end of the year (IIRC Renney mentioned it), but he doesn't seem to have as much Finnish as the other two kids. However, that will still generate more chances for his line.
His skating needs no work. This off-season should be spent with Haley Wickenheiser and Sidney Crosby firing pucks at laundry room appliances. Another good portion with SMac in the weight room building strength. And finally a few sessions with Havlat, Hossa, Zetterberg etc on how to be all elbows, knees and butt ends along the walls.
I don't fully agree with you LT, I still think MPS will become a better point scorer than eberle once they reach the prime of their careers.
ReplyDeleteWe know that zone finish tends to converge towards 50% so the fact that his zone finish was higher than zone starts speaks a lot about the puck movement when he is on the ice, especially when his quality comp is higher than quality team.
Furthermore, I think he is one guy who was shuffled a lot and even played some games on the fourth line.
Well, they're all outliers Lowetide. Paajarvi in his rookie year was the 12th highest scoring Swedish forward in the NHL. When you look at his background, skillset, and physical attributes, how many comparables are there, really?
ReplyDeleteHow many fluid, 6'+, non-physical "two-way" 20 year old forwards has the SEL put into the NHL that one can say "well, this guy doesn't count because his story is exceptional."
How about the Sedins? 1.34/60 at ES for Henrik, 1.54/60 for Daniel. The PP numbers are 2.62 and 4.40.
Paajarvi is 1.37 and 3.67, at a year younger. But should we also not look to the Sedins because, like Eriksson, their development from 20 year old struggling Swedes to legit 1st line talents in their prime is atypical? Just like Markus Naslund was during his 11 point rookie year. How about the woeful offense produced by guys like Franzen, Samuelsson and Holmstrom (admittedly less skillset comparable) in their rookie years.
What's the reasonable path paradigm for these players? It seems to me that it's not uncommon (in the small sample size that is the NHL) for Swedish players to come in, put up soft numbers in their early years, and then launch into a variety of progressions - from superstar to role player. It looks to me that the path trod by Eriksson is not significantly more uncommon than the one trod by Backstrom than the one trod by Samuelsson than the one trod by Lehtinen than the one trod by Zetterberg. Of the handful of top line Swedish players in the NHL, many had production (and role) similar to that of Paajarvi in their rookie years.
LT
ReplyDeletecould you post his splits? Seems to me he had a much better second half and even better fourth quarter
New country, new league, smaller rinks, new language, lots to account for
ReplyDeleteDaniel Sedin
ReplyDeleteDraft +1:
1999-00-Modo(SEL) GP-50 G-19 A-26 P-45
Draft +2:
2000-01 Vancouver Canucks NHL
GP-75 G-20 A-14 P-34
Draft +3:
2001-02 Vancouver Canucks NHL
GP-79 G-9 A-23 P-32
Draft +4:
2002-03 Vancouver Canucks NHL GP-79 G-14 A-17 P-31
If Magnus puts up three consecutive years of 30 - 40 points he will get run out of town on a rail.
Jon: We know what MP can do at 19 because he played in the NHL. That doesn't mean he SHOULD have been here, just that he was.
ReplyDeletePerhaps his best comparables stayed in Sweden at 19 because their NHL organizations felt they'd be better off there.
MOST of the Swedish kids who played in the NHL at 19 became outstanding players and here's hoping the our guy does the same.
After that I don't know how many comparables we can find that are Swedish.
JonQ
ReplyDeleteI think most people would agree with you that Pääjarvi's underlying numbers are good enough that his career could take a substantial upswing à la Ericksson.
But until it happens, is a big jump a reasonable expectation?
oilersfan: Here are the splits pre and post all-star game:
ReplyDeletePre: 47gp, 6-13-19 Even
Post: 33gp, 9-6-15 -13
also
ReplyDeletecould anyone tell me if MAtt Stajan has a no movement clause or not? I don't know how to find that out on capgeek
Hossa only played 60 games and had the 9th highest TOI/G among Senator forwards in his rookie season. He also had a shooting % of 12.1 on only 124 shots.
ReplyDeleteHis P/60 would have been substantially higher than Paajarvi's.
Not a good comparison at all.
Terrific player and I think he will be a top six outscorer. Given the push that Hall and Eberle got I think he would have topped twenty goals.
ReplyDeleteI think its reasonable to expect 25 to 30 goals from him on an annual basis. He's still learning and he's just a kid.
Going to be great.
Oilersfan,
ReplyDeleteHe does.
Next to his name on capgeek there is a little "lock" icon. This means a NTC or NMC.
Hover on it for more detail.
SpOILer - is a big jump a reasonable expectation?
ReplyDeleteI'd say yeah, it's reasonable. Stagnation or small improvement is also reasonable. Prediction is kind of a fool's game, especially looking at numbers in one year.
But I saw enough creativity from Paajarvi this year that I think his modest numbers bely his potential a bit. If he isn't putting up close to 70 points in his prime, I'd be surprised.
And I'm no expert, but he looks more than a bit like Eriksson out there. Maybe with not quite the one-shot potential (but Eriksson sure couldn't score for trying his first couple years), and with better footspeed, but otherwise similar.
Duce, you must be onta sumthin with that Hossa ref if the Dangerously-Stupid Fox is against it.
ReplyDeleteWith Stajan having a NMC and Langkow back , I can't see how the Flames can sign Glencross even if they send Hagman and Kotalik to the minors/Europe.
ReplyDeleteStaios' money went to Gio and Tanguay will get 4.5 I would think. If Glenx goes free agent the Oilers absolutely have to try to sign him. He could replace Penner on the top 6 , give some grit and crust with speed. Also an excellent penalty killer.
JonQ
ReplyDeleteCould does not mean reasonably expect, but I agree that there is a lot of potential upside there. Reasonable expectations are built with a low cloud ceiling and no blue skies though, from what I've seen.
PRV is outstanding.
ReplyDeleteYou could see him get his bearings and start taking the puck to the net and play more in the tougher areas by the end of the season.
Perfect example of a wasted ELC year. He could have done all of that in the AHL.
Instead he gets clobbered by Regher in an early game and get spooked, and has to learn the small ice game against the best in the world.
91 will be fine. Better than fine.
We throw around "context" at lot lately because its imperative to actually know what we are looking at. i.e.) "Is Gagner and under performing 4 year vet or a very good 21 year old?"
When do we know what we have with a player?
LT does a good job trying to find comparables. The funny thing is, most of the comparables were not playing NHL hockey at 18,19, and 20.
We love to throw up the Sedin's because they didn't start being the players we know today until their 25 year old season. Shane Doan was 27 before he broke the .75pts/gm mark. Getzlaf was 22.
What's the benchmark?
Hall and Eberle had positive corsi's against the toughs in their rookie year. How common is that?
In the end, I just hope that v3.0's little speech about not rushing kids to the show anymore proves to true.
I would love to have a 21 year old kid put up .618pts/gm and have the fan base be excited about that's kid's future instead of having the same fan base want that player traded for under performing.
Familiarity breeds contempt.
Watching young mean turn into hockey players is like making sausage.
It would be nice to not be forced to watch the maturing process at the NHL level. Its not always pretty.
BTW, Doan had .333pts/gm as a 21 year old and spent half the season in the AHL.
spOILer:
ReplyDeleteDuce, you must be onta sumthin with that Hossa ref if the Dangerously-Stupid Fox is against it.
Gold.
This reminds me of an argument I made for drafting Larsson to a friend last week - we should do it simply because Jason Gregor is opposed to it, which means it has to be a good idea, right?
turials - A urinal at a courthouse.
What about Milan Michalek as a comparable for MPS? Same size, same rookie season stats, same relative draft position.
ReplyDeleteWe just have to hope that Raffi does not receive a 10-game suspension involving MPS.
MPS has very good understanding of how to drive play forward through putting other players in good positions or his speed, from what I've seen, and numbers LT put up for us.
ReplyDeleteIn a game I saw in which he played with Gagner (can't remember who they played, sorry, I have 4 little kids) it was Gagner missing opportunities that MPS set up for him to go to the net. On one play MPS was drawing the defender and shot a low puck that rebounded, purposefully, but Gagner didn't seem to see the plan and didn't take the open lane set up for him. Later Gagner did score, but there were other times the same sort of thing happened.
I think the only thing he is lacking is an aggressive desire to score, like Eberle and Hall have. If he finds it, he has the tools to be a very hard player to defend - size, speed, some vision and a decent shot. The defense is a bonus.
Coaching will be huge for how he develops, so he is in a very good place given the Oiler's current staff.
SpOILer. "Reasonable Expectations" are just a "could" plus likelihood. You don't have to define it for me.
ReplyDeleteI don't see a lot of NHL players, including superstars, with a similar background & skillset to Paajarvi, who had a better 19 year old season in the NHL. That could be because there aren't a lot of 19 year old players with Paajarvi's background in the NHL, but even if that's so, all that means is that it's total folly to try to extrapolate from his numbers.
Which brings us back to a young player with a great toolbox, a fine pedigree, a history of performing with or above his top-drawer peers, and who had a solid rookie year despite some adversity. And as good or better a rookie year than most of the very good players I would think to compare him to (ie. hope he turns into).
Sorry to thread jack LT, this relates to yesterday's thread but I'm not sure if anyone's still reading that one.
ReplyDeleteBruce wrote:
"That said, when I read folks who've never seen the kid play write him off on the basis of his weight as a 17-year-old or his ratio of powerplay points, I'm apt to clear my throat cuz I've seen him good. Repeatedly."
I don't doubt that you, the scouts, and everyone who sees him sees something in him, but I am curious to hear a guess as to why a player with all the skills you wrote about* hasn't produced more ES offence. If it's not an inability on his part to produce ES offense, what's the external explanation? Is it teammates, ice time, the system? Trying to play a good two way game? Because he does have a good +/-, +30, 3rd on the team, but it's not as stunning as Couturier's, or Huberdeau's, for example.
*Bruce wrote:
"All those things Hitchcock said are bang on the mark, he's a puck hound with outstanding anticipation, instincts, vision, and hands. He doesn't cheat for offence and has a good head on his shoulders in all three zones. He played in an ultra-defensive system in Red Deer (led the Dub by 34 GA) and thrived in it."
Bruce: Saw him good. Saw him good.
ReplyDeleteAs for all the Red Deer thing. I don't really buy it.
Per exemple:
Drumondville (Couturier's team) allowed 23,4 shots per game. But their goalie had a 89,7% save, so they allowed 182 goals.
Red Deer allowed 27,4 shots per game, 4 more than Drumondville. But their goalie had an insane 93,3% save, so they allowed fewer goals.
If there's one thing to learn here it's that good defensive teams don't allow a lot of shots. I'm saying Red Deer's ''defensive system'' is more of a ''we got a great goalie''.
Btw. I don't think Nuge even touches Couturier defensively. He's +55 on a team where the other behind him is +37. (And there's minuses on the club)
Alex Semin, but without the shot.
ReplyDeleteAnd unless someone who've seen him can come up. I don't think he plays on the PK. He has no goals on it for the season (I know it's not an indicator of how good he is, but generally kids that good score at least 1 goal if they PK).
ReplyDeleteI agree that Paajarvi should make an excellent center in a few years. He has terrific defensive awareness for his age and with his size and passing ability he could be a dandy. I don't see any problem at all with him being able to handle the rough stuff going forward.
ReplyDeleteRegular season stats for Red Deer's top 6 scorers this season (all F's except D Petrovic):
ReplyDeleteRed Deer PP reg season:
RNH 11+48=59
Froese 24+23=47
Kudrna 16+25=41
Petrovic 3+30=33
Persson 11+6=17
Ferguson 2+6=8
Red Deer ES (+ SH) reg season:
Ferguson 21+32=53
RNH 20+27=47
Persson 22+22=44
Kudrna 13+28=41
Froese 19+15=34
Petrovic 4+20=24
As a centre I wonder if he could be our next Petr Nedved? Same size 6'3" and similar skill set. Nedved was gold at protecting the puck though, so that's something MPS will have to work on, along with faceoffs.
ReplyDeleteI still think his skillset is better on the wing (a la a Ville Leino?) but now that you mention it, his defensive prowess could lend to being a good 2nd-line centre.
More than 50% of the production on the PP. DAMN.
ReplyDeleteI'd be curious to see it for other top guys.
Speeds: Thanks a lot. Where did you get that?
@speeds: Wow that smacks of Rob Schremp. And who is this Brett Ferguson ES outscorer? Any scouting reports on this guy?
ReplyDeleteRaven: He's sadly a 20 years old player.
ReplyDeleteIstrocat: Istambulian cat.
Paajarvi will be special, regardless of what level of offense he ends up delivering. He just has a good head on his shoulders.
ReplyDelete@speeds: Your post reminds me of this:
http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3199
That's the Rob Schremp comparison.
I think if we need a PP specialist Omark has already got that covered.
Truthfully I'll be happy with almost anyone the Oilers draft as long as it's not an off-the-board pick (as in someone not ranked in the top 5) but I am curious what the rankings would look like if Landeskog never got injured.
Another option for Hemsky rather than trying to acquire another 1st rounder: are their young prospects from the same age cluster as Gagner,Hall,Eberle who might be available?
@FPB: Could be worth a camp invite. I mean, most of the college guys we signed were older than that.
ReplyDeleteHmmm. That's Gagner territory from his draft year:
ReplyDelete53GP
14-33-47 EV
20-50-70 PP
1-0-1 SH
Of course Gagner had Kane.
LT:
ReplyDeleteOut of curiousity, do you have Kane`s numbers for comparisoné.
FPB:
The whl site lists the league leaders in PP goals and PP assists, so I just went far enough into it to pull that data for Red Deer`s top 6 scorers, then subtracted it from their totals for ES. That means those totals will include SH numbers, and I didn`t take time to separate that out.
If anyone`s wondering why I cut off at 6, it`s because there was a big drop off from 6 Petrovic 57pts to 7 Kambeitz 38pts
stupid keyboard.
ReplyDeleteLT, that should read:
Out of curiousity, do you have Kane`s numbers for comparison?
That's the Rob Schremp comparison.
ReplyDeleteIs that a fair comparison though?
Both Schremp and the Nuge did well on the PP, but it seems that the thing that has killed Robbie is the "Robbie Shremp hockey"/lack of compete. This aspect knocked him way back in the draft and follows him today.
Schremp also got a boost from playing a zillion minutes in London.
The Nuge doesn't appear to suffer from a lack of drive, is a better skater (Schremp is a wide tracker) and even tries to check people.
I am worried about the lack of ES production but if the dude has crazy skills and an excellent compete level, his offence will come.
@Lowetide: How does that compare to other league leaders though? I wonder if 47 points ES might still be among the league leaders after all their other PP points are subtracted.
ReplyDeleteFor example, do comparisons explain why
Bobby Hughes
Tyler Donati
failed where
Bobby Ryan
Brett MacLean
Evan Brophey
John Tavares
Patrick Kane
Sergei Kostitsyn
Sam Gagner
succeeded?
speeds:
ReplyDeleteKane
58GP
36-30-66 EV
22-53-75 PP
4-0-4 SH
Gagner
53GP
14-33-47 EV
20-50-70 PP
1-0-1 SH
Just to be clear, I'm not saying I think RNH will turn out to be a Schremp type as a pro.
ReplyDeleteI'm just curious what's going on with this player, because he does seem to be a bit atypical w.r.t. ES offence, and maybe even +/-. Couturier, Huberdeau, and Hamilton, amongst top CHL prospects in this year's draft, all lead their team's in plus minus
Nugent Hopkins numbers actually look kind of similar to Strome's in a couple of ways.
ReplyDeleteBoth posted 106 pts, both are 3rd on the team in +/-.
RNH put up 57 PP pts and 49 other pts, while Strome put up 40 PP points and 66 other points.
Niagara scored 273 goals in 68 GP, while Red Deer scored 268 goals in 72 GP, so pretty similar team offence but Niagara was scoring a bit more per game.
I remain convinced Couturier is the bpa but it's been ages since he was in most top 3 rankings.
ReplyDeleteI'm more curious about him than anyone. What's up there?
Perhaps Couturier is just as good as before the other players just got better?
ReplyDeleteOr maybe others arrived late and became the latest fad but Couturier played at a high level all along?
ReplyDeleteHe may have peaked early, but there's some real sustain there. It isn't Esposito we're talking about here.
Besides the fact SC is an ugly skater, I think the refusal to do interviews earlier in the season has everyone concerned with his ability to handle pressure, emotional maturity etc. Not playing well in a couple of the big games doesn't help. And he didn't take much of a step forward, something scouts always seem to look for.
ReplyDeleteBut he was the only underage invited to WJCs. Showed okay in his role. Has a tremendous +/- number, MVP of the Q. Put up good numbers...
If Couturier had player 68 games or so, he would have close to 112 points.
ReplyDeletethat would have shut people up who say his boxcars did not show any progress
Couturier is probably still #1 on my list too, LT, although I can understand the arguments for 4 or 5 guys at the top. It's hard not to wonder why he's falling with his numbers, but if I were the Oilers I'd be sending (or would have already sent, more likely) Steve Serdachny out to watch some Drumondville games and tell me what he thinks of Couturier's skating, if it's a problem, if it is how much it can be improved, etc.
ReplyDeleteHere are the stats for the Q guys.
ReplyDeleteCouturier:
PP 9+24=35
ES 27+26=63
+55
36% of total is PP. (Only 25% for goals)
Huberdeau:
PP 13+17=30
ES 30+45=75
+59
28% of total is PP WOW.
Huberdeau with a huge bid for N1 pick right here.
@LT: Sorry that's what I meant but I guess it sounded like I meant they all "surpassed him." Skating aside I do like Couturier's board play from the WJC's though admittedly haven't seen much of him since then.
ReplyDelete@FPB: Yeah Hubey is a real power forward too, if you've seen any of his work.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to follow Huberdeau's move through the rankings from now until the draft, as I think he's the only top player left playing (except maybe Larsson).
ReplyDeleteWho knows which teams in the 2-5 range have some rated higher than someone else, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see EDM move down in this year's draft, depending what they can get for doing so and depending who they like, of course.
I don't think the Sedins should ever be thrown out as examples of late bloomers. The post-lockout rule changes re-made the game to their enormous advantage before they broke out.
ReplyDeleteThat isn't going to happen for Magnus or any other young players.
How can we ignore 43 goals on the year and that level of ES points, if we are math people? The only argument I can make against The Hub is he had the best QUALTEAM.
ReplyDeleteLarsson's season is over, Farjestad won the SEL championship I think Thursday. Larsson played 17.5 minutes in the final game, it looks like he was pulled from PP and PK by the end of that series.
ReplyDeleteStill, a terrific talent.
Worse part of NJD winning the lottery I wouls LOVE to hear what David Conte would say about the top 5. But there is NO way he will say anything because there is probably a 35% chance he gets the #1 pick at #4.
ReplyDeleteIt just troubles me that a good MH team can shut RNH down. RNH and Strome EV/PP production is not similar. RNH scores a much higher % of his pts on the PP
I would be leaning to selecting Larsson or trying to trade the pick for Johannsen or Sequin
spOILer:
ReplyDelete(1) plus minus - Huberdeau's was great, league leading at +59, but 9 of the top 15 +/- in the league came from Huberdeau and his teammates. Huberdeau was +11 clear of his teammates, but there were 6 St. John players +44 or better.
Couturier was +55, he had a teammate (Palat) at +37, another (Randazzo)at +30. The next highest was Mathieu at +20.
(2) GP - Couturier was 9 pts behind Huberdeau in 9 less GP, but given Couturier's point per game pace it's likely he'd have finished ahead of Huberdeau given equal GP.
(3) Mono - this isn't really a "math" reason, although presumably if you were an interested team you'd like to get a look at his medical records if that's allowed, but it's the great unknown with Couturier.
If it didn't have much of an effect on his season, then I think his case for #1 is a bit weaker than if it affected him. If it did affect him a fair bit, there's a non-zero chance that Couturier is clear of the entire draft class.
Huberdeau was a protected player, he only took about 280 F0, were SC took over 1400. He is also another light weight player like RNH. Huberdeau and RNH played on veteran teams, were Drummondville had a big turn over last year. As to SC speed, his first couple of steps are slow, once he gets going with his long strides he usually catches up or passes. Also he protects the puck like no other, were the light weight plays are knocked on their asses, we saw a lot of that in Edmonton this year. We either pick defense or Sean Couturier.
ReplyDeleteLT:
ReplyDeleteI meant that Larsson might get a look at the world championships. Or is he already not making that roster?
If the Oilers have some pull with Hockey Canada, I wonder if they'd be interesting in taking a look at RNH in the world championships? Don't know if HC would go for that
What I don't understand is how the same metrics that are deemed too insufficient to paint a proper picture of and NHL player and subsequently thrown out are also used to break down junior players and come out with concrete conclusions.
ReplyDeleteWhat's with the double standard here?
If I cited the stats of an NHL player without the now-standard corsi, pdo, REL, zone-start ect, ect ect it would be deemed troll worthy because it didn't have others "preferred" context attached with it.
I'm not saying there is no value in stats but I certainly put more stock into what the scouts are saying opposed to what the math is saying.
RNH has my vote.
Trading RNH for Johansen would be wrong, I think. RNH out-scored him this year at a far younger age. I think RNH is likely the wrong guy at #1 but no way do I think Johansen is better than him or any of the other three Cs available.
ReplyDeleteThe thing about the Oilers is that they put such a premium on skating that I doubt they would take SC.
Traktor,
ReplyDeleteIf we had those stats we would be using them. No one is saying that we have a full picture and i think it is pretty obvious by now there is no concrete answer. Even among the scouts.
Tracktor
ReplyDeleteLove that you now embrace the "saw him good" camp.
The only concerns I have with RNH is the apparent weakness of this draft, the fact that a good team completely shut him down and on the season he feasted, almost exlusively, on the PP.
Each of those concerns is legit. If he was injured against MH, that removes 1/3.
Would Howson trade Johannsen and #8for Gagner and #1?
Traktor:
ReplyDeleteI think you look at both.
If I'm a head scout, and the scouts like a player, but he has poor production, I want them to explain to me why he's going to improve and excel at higher levels when he can't excel at the current level.
And, if there's a player putting up big numbers, but he isn't highly rated, I want the scouts to tell what about his game won't translate to the next level.
There's not really any question that scouts can sometimes identify a player with poor production at the junior level who goes on to be a much better player, with time, at higher levels.
For example, Tyler Myers, the ultimate example. 19 points as a draft eligible D, a team worst -16 (next closest was -5). Two years later, he wins rookie of the year. By math alone, you'd never have picked this guy (although I guess 6'7" is some kind of math), yet he went 12th overall.
But there's also the flip side: Brad Richards, a guy who puts up the same 115 points in his draft year as his linemates Lecavalier, but Lecav goes #1 OV while Richards goes 64th. With that sort of production, it's hard to believe he's go 63 spots later, but he did.
To be fair, Lecavalier put up his points in 10 less games. It'd be nice if we had +/- for that year, but we don't (or at least, not at hockeydb).
ReplyDeleteLooking at the 97/98 Rimouski team scoring list is crazy:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0010281998.html
spoiler:
ReplyDeleteMost around these parts argue that traditional stats are not only far from perfect but almost irrelevant all together.
Yet we have posters who's entire foundation in regards analyzing junior players is based on traditional stats.
I know that's all we have.. so perhaps we shouldn't be so quick to discredit the saw 'em good crowd
The other John:
ReplyDeleteSteve Stamkos went pointless and was a minus player in the 2nd round of his draft year playoffs as well.
Traktor: RNH's a second seed and notoriously better team than Stamkos'.
ReplyDelete12 more W's.
You can get it when you're a big underdog. Not when you're the favorite.
Was Stamkos' team knocked out of the playoffs by a team his team was favoured to beat? Because thats just what happened to Red Deer with RNH held in check. Were either of them injured in series?
ReplyDeleteAren't we really committing to draft someone like Daniel Briere if we select RNH. A very skilled offensive player that we have questions about.
Lt mentioned earlier Larsson only played 17.5 minutes in SEL final game. Other way to say that is 18 year old kid actually good enough to play in mens league final and played just under 1/3 of the game.
TOJ: He's a defenseman. He's supposed to play at least 16 minutes to be dressed.
ReplyDelete6 out of 10 scouts from TSN's list have RNH at #1. You would think they take into account of EV/PP production. That's a pretty large consensus (Hall was 7/10).
ReplyDeleteStu Magnificent bastard has indicated he has had over 50 views of RNH - and speaks glowingly about him.
I think we tend to overlook that scouting is all about projection. The scouts see RNH (April 1993 birthday) with a higher ceiling than his competitors.
Math questioned Eberle's upside (his 17 and 18 year old seasons were unspectacular), and math also suggested Patrick O'Sullivan was a better player than Eberle. Math suggested the Oilers select Jordan Schroeder over MPS. And Math suggested Seguin was in close proximity with Taylor Hall.
Math has its limitations.
I have no issues taking RNH at #1 whatsoever
Was Stamkos' team knocked out of the playoffs by a team his team was favoured to beat? Because thats just what happened to Red Deer with RNH held in check
ReplyDeleteLinking team success to a single player is absurd. It's right up there with giving Khabibulin a 4 year contract just because he won a Stanley Cup.
On another note, you go through juniors, there are plenty of guys that put up great numbers, but their draft position doesn't reflect that. Jordan Weal is a textbook example.
That's not to say their scouts are completely effective. They have their share of blunders.
PJO: There's also guys with no points who go early, (Like Gillies) and pretty much are guaranteed busts.
ReplyDeleteBut they still pop in each year.
And yeah, I don't buy the Larsson hype at all. Yes he plays against men, but his offense is underwhelming (right there with Tim Erixon in his draft year). While he will likely be solid defensively, he's closer to being a Chris Phillips as opposed to a Drew Doughty - and with better alternatives at #1, why take such a gamble, especially for a defenceman that will already burn a couple of more years in development?
ReplyDeleteFirmly against drafting Larsson.
Trading RNH for Johansen would be wrong, I think. RNH out-scored him this year at a far younger age.
ReplyDeleteTrue, but Johansen profiles as that #1 power forward C. Toews rather than Kane. I'd kind of partial to a guy who can play physical, win faceoffs, play solid defence, plus score at a high rate.
If this team wants to go anywhere in the off chance they make the playoffs, they are going to need players with talent and grit and size. Johansen is the full package.
I'd trade the first for him pretty quickly. Ideally you trade Hemsky and the #1 for Johansen and the #9.
This has been a great discussion. I feel I've crept at least a few microns closer to a favorite at least.
ReplyDelete50 viewings by Stu seems a bit worrisome, even if it is over a couple of seasons.
Or flip-flopped a dozen times or so.
ReplyDeletePJO: There's also guys with no points who go early, (Like Gillies) and pretty much are guaranteed busts.
ReplyDeleteBut they still pop in each year.
Yeah, no question about that. This is suggestive projection without underlying evidence (math) is harmful. Conversely, math without projection is not much better.
It's all about finding the right balance.
50 viewings by Stu seems a bit worrisome, even if it is over a couple of seasons.
ReplyDeleteWhy is that worriesome?
PJO: Shows a pre-set preference maybe?
ReplyDeleteHow important is skating? If Couturier could skate like RNH, would he be a clearcut #1? If he does most everything else better, and has the advantage of size, can the skating be improved enough? Or is getting a Lecavalier exactly what the Oil are scared of?
ReplyDeleteSpoiler: Scared of Rocket Richard trophy winners?
ReplyDeleteVery nice prospect who showed well late in the season playing with a complimentary set-up guy in Omark. Unfortunately I think Omark's shelf life with the Oilers is fairly short.
ReplyDeleteIf MP finds some grit he's going to be a real handful for opposing RW's and D that know they're going to pay a price when he comes on the forecheck.
Taylor, Magnus, and Teemu on LW going forward looks just fine to me.
PJO,
ReplyDeleteOne of my controls, if I was a scout, would be seeing all the kids in the conversation a relative equal number of times.
If I see one player in particular a much larger number of times, doesn't it give that player more opportunity to be seen good? It also has the converse effect of giving all the other players less opportunity to be seen good. Kinda like a four point game.
Now I don't know the numbers for the other guys, but if Stu had only seen RNH 30 times this year out of that 50 total, how many times could he have seen SC, Hub, & Strome?
Surely this is a legitimate concern?
FPB: who knows, but Lecav doesn't really fit into an Oiler type of player. Skating has been a big deal since day 1.
ReplyDeleteI'm not against SC if that's who MBS takes. I'm still leaning slightly towards Huberdeau though. 43 goals.
Shows a pre-set preference maybe?
ReplyDeleteFrom the article (I can't recall where I read it), Stu indicated he has seen all the prospects numerous times. The list also included Couturier, Strome, Landeskog. All guys whom he has seen numerous times over the past few years.
On another note, here's what Stu had to say on Larsson at ON:
SAW HIM GOOD
MacGregor just got back from a week in Sweden, where he watched defenseman Adam Larsson, a sure lottery pick and possible first-overall choice, play two games with Skelleftea in the SEL.
"I was very pleased," MacGregor said. "He's a good player. A very good player. "He is what he is. He's a very solid first-pass guy. He moves the puck well. He's very intelligent. He see the ice. He's a solid defender. He's got good size. He's a very good two-way guy with something on the offensive side."
MacGregor has seen Larsson before. Likewise, anybody else rated near the top-five -- Sean Couturier, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the like. Larsson, a six-foot-three, 220-pounder who has 1-8-9 and 41 PIM in 37 games in his third season with Skelleftea, didn't disappoint.
"He's a guy you have to consider that early in the draft," MacGregor said. "I don't know where we'll pick, anywhere from one to three, I'd think, and he'll be a guy in that area for sure. He just reaffirmed that he's one of the top players in the draft.
"There's a long way to go in the process. I haven't really got to the point where I'm sure on anybody, but I'm certainly not disappointed in any of them."
http://oilersnation.com/2011/3/9/10-minutes-with-stu-macgregor
Ah, found the article:
ReplyDeletehttp://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Edmonton/2011/03/23/pf-17732541.html
“We’re covering more ground with more viewings of more players,” said the head scout, who just returned from a week of watching Adam Larrson in Sweden. Yesterday GM Steve Tambellini flew to Sweden to take his place.
Larrson missed five weeks with a groin injury after the World Juniors, so the intense Oiler scouting of him is right now, in the Swedish Elite League. But this year it’s not just Larrson and one other player. There are four.
Instead of picking from two forwards with exactly the same stats who play in the same league and even in the same playoff series, these guys are all over the map.
Larrson is in Sweden, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is in the WHL, Gabriel Landeskog is in the OHL and Sean Coutourier is in the QMJHL.
Larrson is a six-foot-three, 201-pound defenceman, Landeskog a six-foot, 196-pound right wing, Coutourier a six-foot-three, 192-pound centre and Nugent-Hopkins a five-foot-11, 164-pound centre.
Also, unlike last year, the Oilers have two first-round picks — they also have the Los Angeles Kings’ first pick (20th going into last night).
“The staff generally focuses on the depth of the draft,” said MacGregor.
“I have to be very sure of the early picks and very sure where we’re going as a group with Steve Tambellini and Kevin Lowe,” he said of the GM and head of hockey operations.
Larrson is getting heavy attention.
“We’ve followed him a lot before. He was in the U-18 tournament as both a 16-year-old and a 17-year-old, and he’s been in the last two World Juniors. We’ve had a lot of viewings of him over a long period of time.
“We have two Swedish scouts. I’ve been over. Steve is on his way over. Kevin may go over. And I’ll probably go back. We also may get an opportunity to watch him at the World Hockey Championships if he gets selected to the Swedish team.”
Nugent-Hopkins is a little easier to follow, being a member of the Red Deer Rebels who just happens to be playing against the Edmonton Oil Kings in a first-round series starting Friday and Saturday in Red Deer.
“I’ll be there this weekend,” said MacGregor.
“I’ll see him in Game 2 and 3 of that series. I’ve seen him play about eight to 10 games already and I’ll see him a lot more. By the end of it we’ll have over 50 viewings of him by our staff. That’s about the same number of viewings we had of Hall and Seguin.
“Kevin, Steve and I saw Coutourier two weekends ago in Quebec. We watched him play two games. We’ll have over 40 viewings on him, plus the World Junior.
“Landeskog was injured in the world junior and missed a couple of weeks. But he’s like Larrson. He’s a late-born ‘92 player and we saw him in the U-18 as a 16-year-old and 17-year-old and we have two scouts in Ontario who have watched him a lot with Kitchener. I’ve seen him six times and I’ll see him again next week and again in the playoffs.”
Other stuff in that article to chew on. Check it out.
All that hard-on for Johansen...I don't if any of you realize that his draft year non-PP points/game is only 0.65, lower than RNH's 0.68. And Johansen wasn't even his team's scoring leader.
ReplyDeleteOur beloved Eberle's number is 0.64, but he was the leading scorer.
Brayden Schenn was higher at 0.77 and he was the leading scorer but Scott Glennie actually had a higher points per game. And Brandon was a high scoring team.
Evander Kane was probably the highest in recent WHL history at 0.91 but that Vancouver team was mighty powerful and he wasn't the leading scorer.
I think one might have to suspect that perhaps the WHL is a slightly different beast and, in general, be careful about drawing fast and easy conclusions based on PP vs non-PP production without assessing it with more historical context in all 3 major junior leagues. One very noticeable difference between the W and the other two leagues is that the W teams rack up a lot more PIMs.
As for RNH's playoff perf, that was not encouraging but I would not let that override his larger body of work. Going by this assessment, the Kings would have a much bigger bust in their hands with Brayden Schenn after Saskatoon Blades crashed out just as badly as Red Deer. And Saskatoon had the best record and best offence in the WHL the past season.
so in his draft year Patrick
ReplyDeletekane scored 53.2% of his point on the pp, and RNH scored 55.6%, so that is 2.5% more of his points on the pp than Kane.
Not sure about you folks but I wouldn't mind Kane on my team...
fwiw RNH only scored 32.2% of his goals on the pp while Kane scored 38% so Kane's goal stats were even more inflated than RNH's...also
Kane was 7 months older in his draft year so if RNH plays in the dub next year I wonder if he gets 150??
Raine Snow at the cult of hockey lies in red deer and says one of the reasons RNH doesn't get more goals is the other players on his team aren't that good so they aren't setting him up much
Oilersfan: There's 2 guys with 80 points and one with 40 goals. That's not THAT bad.
ReplyDeleteProblem is Kane scored like 50 more points than RNH did. So it ain't that comparable.
Kane still had a good ES production.
Personally, I've found it quite amusing that, in discussions here and elsewhere re RNH, people kept bring up the ratio of ES points vs PP points metric.
ReplyDeleteOne does understand that the *problem* can easily be *solved* if, oh...I dunno, the WHL head office simply goes ahead and cancel, say, 15 of his PP assists. Or something like that ;)
I bet that would somewhat appease the goals/assist ratio crowd, too.
Choppy: That'd bring his production down significantly.
ReplyDeleteIt would be fine and dandy if he scored as much as the others at ES and just poured some PP sugar on it.
I think the Oiler fanbase is somewhat sensitive to the EV/PP ratio because of the great lie that was Robbie Schremp. We'd heard that he was playing half the game with it wasn't until Tyler posted that epic item (previously linked above) that we saw the cold grey dawn.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's youth, maybe he's playing with the gang that couldn't shoot straight. But it's an issue and Oiler fans should rightly be concerned imo.
Taylor Hall has shown their really is no reason to look at who had a better team and who had a worse team too heavily. I mean, he played for the Windsor friggen Spitfires, but he was MVP because he was a beast.
ReplyDeleteTyler Seguin may have played for a bad team, but what makes a good team and a good player is how he uses his teammates, too.
That's why I like Huberdeau and RNH, and I think the goal-to-assist ratio is a minor issue compared to the PP production imbalance.
schremp was 19, two years after his draft year when he scored 150 and all those pp points.
ReplyDeletewhat did he do his draft year??
75 points or something on a scoring beast team with Corey PErry et al, nowhere near RNH on a team with nobody else who scores
FPV: yes, but still a 90 pt guy in the WHL and his team's leading scorer, which is, statistically speaking, unquestionably better than Eberle and Johansen and somewhat comparable to Schenn.
ReplyDeletechopppy
ReplyDeleteJohansen only got 68 points in his draft year. RNH has 50% more points on an inferior offensive team. How is JO better?
I guess there's not a lot more to talk about but I'm getting quite tired of all the draft talk.
ReplyDeleteoilersfan wrote:
ReplyDeleteNot sure about you folks but I wouldn't mind Kane on my team...
I don't think anyone's really saying they think RNH is a terrible prospect and they don't think he'd be a nice prospect to have. It's just a question of him vs. Huberdeau vs. Couturier vs. Larsson vs. Landeskog vs. etc.
Sure, no one would mind a "Kane", but would you rather a Getzlaf or Richards or E. Staal or whatever other comparable you want to use for the other top prospects?
Speeds said...
ReplyDeleteI don't think anyone's really saying they think RNH is a terrible prospect and they don't think he'd be a nice prospect to have. It's just a question of him vs. Huberdeau vs. Couturier vs. Larsson vs. Landeskog vs. etc.
Exactly.
PJO: I love how that article managed to spell Larsson and Couturier wrong the entire way through. It's like the Oilers keeping Kevin Lowe employed in hockey operations year after year - it's the wrong move everytime, but it's consistent and "ya have to dance with who brung ya."
ReplyDeleteoilersfan said...
ReplyDeleteschremp was 19, two years after his draft year when he scored 150 and all those pp points.
what did he do his draft year??
75 points or something on a scoring beast team with Corey PErry et al, nowhere near RNH on a team with nobody else who scores
This is true. Schremp also got himself traded in his draft year.
Lowtide: not sure if you really understood my point, which is: is the PP points ratio the telling metric, or does something like non-PP points per game paint a more accurate picture? In the latter case, RNH's performance is not too alarming compared to some recent notable WHL prospects.
ReplyDeleteOn top of that, is it really appropriate to do a really do a straight WHL vs OHL vs QMJHL comp?
Worst anthem singer ever? It was like Will Ferrell doing Robert Goulet doing the anthem.
ReplyDeleteYou know, if I just quoted the entire Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act, I think I'd have met my required page count right there.
ReplyDeleteAh see, in that article, the one nearly as long as the Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act, Stu refers to his staff seeing RNH over 50 times. Not he himself. Apparently he doesn't have access to the Tardis after all.
ReplyDeleteAnd that's a lot less worrisome, despite the obvious advantages having a Tardis woud bring.
what has happened to my HNIC?
ReplyDeleteStock? Hrudey? HEALY?
Terrible times.
Some great stops by Luongo on that 5 on 3.
@Dennis: Healy is just terrible. I'm a goalie & a union man so I should be onboard with his agenda but I find him insufferable in the extreme.
ReplyDeleteOT, but...
ReplyDeleteColes notes...
#1) The NHL needs to institute a new rule with respect to the quiet room; if any illegal hit causes anyone to go the quiet room... the guy that delivered the hit is also out for 15 minutes of real time. It's the only way that rule will get any use.
#2) Raffi got 4 games for his hit on Eberle. This hit was more violent.
#3) Given what happened with Gillies, who had the book thrown at him for doing something the game after..
#4) Raffi is gone for entire playoffs.
That should have been 5 and a game.
What I don't understand is how the same metrics that are deemed too insufficient to paint a proper picture of and NHL player and subsequently thrown out are also used to break down junior players and come out with concrete conclusions.
ReplyDeleteI'm with Traktor on this point. At the junior level we don't have the same quality of stats that we're used to on the NHL level, so it seems like we just default down to the best available. Which is all well and good, some stats are better than none, but our degree of confidence also needs to be adjusted a tad.
e.g. Which prospect has the best rate of EVP /60? Well, we don't know, cuz we don't know what sort of ice time these guys are getting. So we default to points per game without really knowing if the guy in question is getting 12 even strength minutes per game or 16.
In other news, Raffi Torres is a prick. First game back, another blind side head shot. Say good night, Dick.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I'd say Torres is looking at 8-10 after that hit and especially if Seabrook's concussed.
ReplyDeletethat Shouldn't make a difference but for some reason it does.
you could see the Hawks sag after he went to the quiet room.
If the camera panned to the broadcast booth unexpectedly, I wouldn't even bat an eye if Hughson does most of the game wearing a Luongo jersey and takes it off when he knows he' on camera. It's just ridiculous what a homer this guy is.
ReplyDeleteI gotta agree that Torres should be looking at 8 games for the Seabrook hit.
It didn't take long for Hughson to dust off the old Sportsnet Pacific pom poms now did it?
ReplyDeleteBruce
ReplyDeletea few people asked the question in this thread, not sure if you saw it, but the jist of it is:
What is the reason given for RNH's lack of ES production and the issue of extreme assists to goals?
Does he have a weak shot? Does he need space to dangle?
Is it true his teammates aren't good enough to get him the puck so he can get the goals?
Does his team play the trap all game and count on the PP to provide all the offence?
enquiring minds want to know
What is the reason given for RNH's lack of ES production
ReplyDeleteRed Deer was a low-scoring, defence first team and RNH is a committed two-way player. (I see this as a good thing.) The top sniper on the team was Byron Froese, who also happens to be a centre so the two were never on the same line except for the PP - where Froese scored 24 of his 43 goals. RNH was the architect of many/most of those, including about five that I witnessed personally.
and the issue of extreme assists to goals?
The latter was more an issue in the first half, especially October when RNH went 0-19-19 in 13 GP (terrible eh?). He admitted to having confidence issues with his shooting at that point. Check out his season splits and you'll see the "problem" was largely self-correcting:
2010 portion: 35 GP, 10-37-47, +10
2011 portion: 34 GP, 21-38-59, +20
On the PP, RNH typically set up at the right point, occasionally left point or on the half wall but never in the traditional centre's position. He did tend to move around quite a lot so those alignments were fairly fluid, but he also tended to draw a lot of attention to himself while he handled the puck before finding the open man.
Does he have a weak shot?
No. Not a particularly heavy shot, but quick release and very accurate. The goals I saw him score were the result of quick bursts to open ice and boom! I anticipate he'll have good success as a garbage collector with his anticipation and stick skills, but didn't personally witness much of that.
Does he need space to dangle?
Quite the contrary, I commented more than once this season that the guy can stickhandle in a phone booth. He has spectacular control in tight quarters.
Is it true his teammates aren't good enough to get him the puck so he can get the goals?
He played with the same linemates most of the year (Andrej Kudrna and John Persson), and while they were effective as a line with 29-33 goals apiece, RNH was the man in the middle who was the distributor of the puck. Later in the year and esp. in the Oil Kings series, Kudrna was making some nice plays and passes which RNH finished off, but that part of the chemistry took awhile to develop.
Does his team play the trap all game and count on the PP to provide all the offence?
I wouldn't say trap but I would say conservative, defence-first hockey with a huge reliance on their devastating powerplay to break open tight games. The Rebels were a much more defensive minded squad than the Blades, who played a wide-open game and tried to outscore everybody. Ironic that both Eastern Conference division champs both ran into a scoring drought/hot goalie at the exact same stage of the playoffs and were gone just like that.
wow Bruce thanks
ReplyDeleteDo you know if Raine Snow has his own blog or is mostly a summary of all the Oilers blog posts?
He seems very knowledgeable of RNH.
I have not seen him play but what has me more than anything is 6 out of ten scouts have him number one overall. I think it would be wrong to go off the board here, although this Huberdeau and his 43 goals are enticing.
If only RNH had about 5 more goals I would be far more comfortable. Even Eberle scored 42 goals in his 73 point draft season.
For all the comparisons with Gretzky I don' recall Wayne ever scoring two assists in a five game playoff series, at least before he turned 35 anyway.
One intersting thought I had is the comparison of RNH to Savard with Couturier being Doug Wickenheiser (RIP), but you fellow 70's hockey fans will recall the peer in age and (questionable now in hindsight) hockey ability all of Gretzky's pre NHLdays was Bobby Smith who I think may be a better comparitor for SC.
@oilersfan: I believe Raine Snow lives in Red Deer. He had some very informative comments about RNH on a couple of my scouting reports at Cult of Hockey.
ReplyDeleteFor all the comparisons with Gretzky I don' recall Wayne ever scoring two assists in a five game playoff series, at least before he turned 35 anyway.
I don't think I compared RNH to Wayne Gretzky, not in so many words, although certainly there are aspects of his game which do remind me of the Great One. But, this just in, he's no Gretzky. We only ever get one of those.
But to answer your query, when the Oilers beat Detroit in five to win the 1987 Clarence Campbell Bowl, the 26-year-old Wayne Gretzky scored (drum roll) 0-2-2 over the course of the series. (Of course, he was rumoured to be battling post-concussion symptoms at the time, but still ...) Details here if you're interested in that sort of thing. Just enter "1987" and follow your nose.
Bruce we understand you've seen him good several times - but the kid scored 35% of his relatively modest goal scoring total in the last 7 games of the year. That's very very little to go on - and you can argue that this was an isolated hot streak as most of his season was unlike this 7 games stretch. It's not what you base a case for #1 on.
ReplyDeleteHonestly I have no idea whether this kid will be any good - any frankly neither does anyone else - and that's not usually the case with a #1 pick. I'd trade the #1 for a later pick and a solid young player this year.
Ryan N-H is the concensus top pick in this draft. He might not be Crosby, but those players are rare.
ReplyDeleteFrom what little I've seen, he looks like a spectacular player, with the ability to make something happen in the flash of an eye.
Oilers have the pathetic powerplay, and you all whine that he gets too many of his points on...the powerplay??
One word: Yipes.
but the kid scored 35% of his relatively modest goal scoring total in the last 7 games of the year. That's very very little to go on - and you can argue that this was an isolated hot streak as most of his season was unlike this 7 games stretch. It's not what you base a case for #1 on.
ReplyDeleteDo we know his shot count for those last seven games? I wouldn't be surprised if he was "advised" that he should focus on his goal scoring down the stretch. If all of a sudden he's shooting ten times a game instead of two, then I'm not sure it was a hot streak.
MPS is just getting out of his teens, so I have no doom and gloom. Kid put up 34 points, and played 80 on a team with anemic offense and injuries up the wazoo. He'll be fine.
ReplyDeleteI haven't seen any of these prospects play, so I just go on scouting reports and numbers. From everything I've come across I'm leaning heavily to Larsson as being the guy to get.
After that Couturier seems like a good option. 40 goal guy who can dish it and plays defense. If he can do some Summers in Saskatchewan with power skating lessons he should be fine.
The Nuge comes in 3rd. But I'm just a fan without the wealth of resources the scouts have.
Just hope they get it right. It'll be painful to suffer 18 seasons or so of Larsson dominating the backend in Colorado and racking up the points, or Couturier/RHN putting up a PPG and outscoring while the Oiler's pick turns into a good but not impact player.
Both Drumondville and St-John's allowed significantly less shots than Red Deer did. (24,5 for both vs 27,5).
ReplyDeleteSo I don't really buy it for RNH's been lesser offensively because his team was defensive minded. Even if it was it was still less than both clubs from the Q.
Schitzo: Even if he did shoot more, that would involve significant luck (11 goals in 7 games). The WHL sadly doesn't seem to track individual shots as opposed to the QJMHL.
ReplyDeleteMPS got a bit rattled early in the season as soon as he got hit, but he wasn't shy like a coward or anything(POS, NIlsson come to mind).
ReplyDeleteHe just needs to figure out what he can and cannot do. He seems like a 35 goal scorer to me.
FPB, maybe Red Deer just excels at keeping shots out of dangerous areas? I recall the Maple Leafs getting 30-50 shots a bunch of games last year, but the majority was of the flub outside not a prayer of going in variety.
ReplyDeleteAlso have you looked at quality of opposition? Also have you factored that maybe the teams in the Q are better overall teams than Red Deer? Lots of factors that you aren't accounting for. The stats are interesting but they don't really prove anything. It stands to reason that a team that isn't that good would play very defensively, and still give up a number of shots.
I think if all of the scouts and other people who are paid to follow them are saying Red Deer is an extremely defensive team it's safe to say they are.
I judge defensively capable teams by the the number of goals they allow, not the shots they give up.
ReplyDeleteDefensive systems?
Red Deer allowed 2.21 GAA this in 2010/11.
The next best GAA in the WHL was 2.68.
The best in the Q, the Sea Dogs, were 2.43.
Drummondville was 2.68.
Boost in scoring from teammates?
The next highest scorer to RNH on the Rebels barely cracked the top 20 WHL. Still he managed to have a hand in 41% of his team's goals on average per game.
Courturier had a teammate finish with the same amount of points as him (both top 5 in Q). He managed to get points in 45% of his teams goals per game but had some talented help with him.
Huberdeau's team scored a wopping 4.76 goals per game, which he had a hand in 32% of.
RNH was the Red Deer Rebels offense.
Schitzo: Even if he did shoot more, that would involve significant luck (11 goals in 7 games). The WHL sadly doesn't seem to track individual shots as opposed to the QJMHL.
ReplyDeleteI agree, but there's a big difference between 11 goals on 15 shots, and 11 goals on 70 shots.
@hoil: An interesting take there on RNH. I admit to being anti RNH because of how much of his offense came off the PP. As has been stated here many times, young kids just aren't going to get that kind of PP time in the show.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I've read about RNH, his skating does not concern me in the way that Schremps did (remember how many times we'd read he'd widen his stance and be almost completely stationary)?
His passing has been rated as a great strength - which tells me he'll make those around him better.
But if your'e on a team that does not have other options to take the pressure off - that could be a tell (see Seguin in last year's playoffs for Plymouth). Other teams could simply gear their game plan to shut him down and did.
Explains some things no doubt. Still not sure that it makes him the best bet, but it does explain some things.
Should Jonathan Huberdeau be part of the conversation for #1? I know he's playing for a strong St. John's team in the Q - but he continues to tear it up. You gotta like his goal scoring production.
ReplyDeleteIs he being discounted because he plays with such a strong team? Would he be more touted if he played in Red Deer?
Everyone agrees that RNH has to put on 15-20 lbs.
ReplyDeleteHow is that extra weight going to affect his lateral quickness(he and the scouts agree that along with vision, his lateral movement is his best attribute)?
Waaaay too many qestion marks for a #1 overall pick. they can't afford to screw it up.
If R N-H gains weight its only going to be good for him.
ReplyDeleteAs a skinny teenager, he's weak. As a grown man, his weakness will turn into strength, and he will probably get even faster. Speed doesn't always translate to being small.
I know he's playing for a strong St. John's team in the Q...
ReplyDeleteSpot the two errors in the above.
Taylor Hall played for a strong team in Windsor and it didn't hurt him so it shouldn't hurt Huberdeau.
ReplyDeleteSo, we're debating what MPS' ceiling could be as a top end talent? That's sweet music for someone who's lived through the likes of Steve Kelley, Jason Bonsignore and Jani Rita.
ReplyDeleteI like MPS a lot. The kid is a thoroughbred with a God given toolkit. In terms of those gifts, I think he has the heavy shot needed to be a top scorer in this league but a sniper needs accuracy and speed of release too and those are areas that Magnus needs to work on.
If he played the off wing, you could certainly imagine a scenario where he and Hall put massive pressure on the opposition going wide and that opens up a ton of ice for a shifty center in the middle to convert those last second dishes. History has shown us that two burners (Messier and Anderson) can work very well together and who knows, maybe we'll have that again with Hall and MPS.
One thing's for certain, considering the likelihood of that scenario is a damn sight better than wondering what Scott Metcalfe is up to these days?
itsaleaf
ReplyDeleteThere's a question mark with every player at the top of this draft. There is no Taylor or Tyler this year.
The safest bet is to go with the guy that the majority of the scouts rank the highest. Or you trust the judgment of the guy who has hit with his first round pick three years running.
At this stage though, there are sound reasons not to pick any of the top ranked players number one.
SS,
ReplyDeleteA strong Saint John Sea Dogs team.
Excuuuuse me...sheesh, between the grammar Nazi's and the Maritime PC police it's getting tough to post anything in Oil boards.
Ian,
Of course it's not bad that Huberdeau played on a good team, but the relative offensive production of players on lower scoring teams should be taken into perspective.
What's the question mark with Larsson? The only question mark I've heard in relation to him questions taking a d-man with the first overall pick? That seems more of a commentary on draft strategy than it is an indictment of the player. Pretty much everything I've read cites the kid as a true blue chipper.
ReplyDeleteLarsson's offence was better last year than it was this year so there is a real question as to how good he'll be offensively in the NHL. He's likely to be very good shut down D, but is it a good idea to use the first overall pick on a guy who doesn't produce much offensively?
ReplyDeleteThat's in addition to the more general question of whether a team should ever use a top three pick on a defenseman given the much higher likelihood that they won't be a star (as Gregor ahs recently demonstrated on ON)
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteNo suspension for Raffi.
ReplyDelete"Collie's" dart must have been missing a flight and missed the wheel of justice dartboard all together.
NHL is worse than a bush league.
The fact Colin Campbell has a son playing in the NHL is scandalous.
ReplyDelete"Daddy, those mean boys were picking on my team last night. Go sort them out, won't you?"
ReplyDeleteGo to TSN and vote for Eberle's goal for play of the year guys he was winning with 89% the vote when I voted. As well check this article out at the fourth period. http://www.thefourthperiod.com/news/min110417.html
ReplyDeleteMaybe we can find something to trade for burns?
For All the RNH fans: you guys use Probably, Might, Has a chance, when Describing his skills. These should not be used when describing the first overall pick.
ReplyDeleteTo use something from last post.
"All the RNH fans are acting like the Girl who dates the bad guy.
He can change!
Your not being fair!"
Hunter quit being that girl!
Huberdeau doesn' t need those adjectives.
@rickibear: I don't care who they draft first, so long as it's the best player.
ReplyDeleteRickibear: people are using qualifiers honestly - because there isn't certainty on RNH, Larsson or any of the options for first overall. That includes Huberdeau, who by basic numbers, has had a great year. However, this isn't the second coming of Hall - its one good year as opposed to a consistent history of dominating junior in the regular season and the playoffs. Moreover, I would argue that if his fundamentals were truly incredible (great shooting, passing, skating etc) we should have seen him higher in the rankings throughout the season. Instead, his ascension in the rankings has followed his numbers.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I still don't know who the pick should be (though I'd really like to know what are the chances that Couturier's skating could improve). However, it's clear that no matter who is drafted, we'll be taking on at least one big question mark in the process. An unfortunate change from last year, but that's how the draft works sometimes.
Cactus: And that's why sometimes in the draft you need to do what you can do reduce your risk - although I'd suggest it's not by trading down and getting multiple picks but by doing your homework.
ReplyDeleteNo one in the top 5 is another Stamkos, Hall or Taveres, yet at the same time - it does not mean they're all worthless either. While I've leaned towards Larsson at times - he projects out to be a solid shut down d-man, not a Pronger. And it's going to take him some time to reach that so the question is if that's the best investement.
W/RNH he's a good skater, great passer who put's up too many points on the PP for my taste and becomes yet another complimentary player on a roster filled with them. Is that really the best we can do?
It would be fun to sit in a war-room discussion and here what MBS, the scouts, 3.0 and Vish have to say.
Uni: The save % theyr goalie had much more looked like a one season wonder than ''great defense'' (,937).
ReplyDeleteAs proven many times over here, outside of Jacques Lemaire they're ain't no magic formula to make your save% go up.
Hoil: Red Deer had an exeptional goalie. Not a great defense. If you're good on D idk why you would allow more shots just for the hell of it.
I've finally had a chance to read that article at http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3199 and it's solid work by mudcrutch as usual. Schremp's PP/ES points split was probably a bit of a red flag. But I think the most important piece of information, and probably a bigger red flag, was missing in that analysis. That piece of info is how good his team was, and where the kid placed on his team's scoring hierarchy.
ReplyDeleteSchremp was on a highly offensive London team which scored 300 goals that season. But most importantly, his 75 points only placed him 4th in scoring on a team where the leading scorer, Corey Perry, outgunned Schremp by a whopping 40 points and 0.5 points per game. I think that is by far a bigger tell that Schremp's 75 points were not as good as they seem.
As a counterpoint, if you look at Perry's numbers from the previous season, which was his draft year, his PP/ES splits were pretty much as bad as Schremp's:
Perry:
-----
Season: 2002/03
GP: 67
G: 25
A: 53
Pts: 78
ES Pts: 31
PP Pts: 47
ES Pts/GP = 0.46
Schremp:
-------
Season: 2003/04
GP: 63
G: 30
A: 45
Pts: 75
ES Pts: 28
PP Pts: 47
ES Pts/GP = 0.44
The one major difference between the two is that in Perry's draft season, he was the team's leading scorer (though only 2nd in terms of pts/game). And this is a valid comp as neither Perry nor Schremp were one of those older draftees with the "late" birthdates that just missed the previous year's draft.
Also notice that Perry's ES Pts/GP is lower than RNH's and pretty much every notable top forward prospects in this year's draft. Both his goals-to-assists ratio and his PP-vs-ES points ratio don't look too hot either.
So, like I said before, I wouldn't worry too much about RNH's ES pts/game unless they show little improvements over his two post-draft years when he'll be among the older players in WHL - that is, if he even stay in junior that long.
Personally, I can definitely comprehend the accolades for RNH. The few times I've watched him, he's looked really good. I thought he was the best player in the top prospects game. All the scouting reports about him were excellent.
I'm one of those who believes that the WHL is a tougher league in which to rack up numbers. I may be wrong, but from memory, in recent WHL history I don't think there has been too many concensus top 5 picks entering the draft who:
1) scored over 100 points,
2) lead his team in scoring by a nice margin both in terms of raw pts and pts/game (say by 20 pts which is .28 pts/game over 72 games),
3) is 6-ft tall with no skating concerns,
4) still has 2 more years of regular (i.e. non-overage) junior eligibility remaining post-draft (i.e. he's not one of those late-birthdates who has benefitted from the extra development edge).
So, by my count, he has passed the eyes test, the concensus test, the numbers test, and he racked up his numbers on a team where defensive play is not an afterthought. Moreover, historical context seems to be on his side.
Obviously, those Gretzky comps are a bit exaggerated. Perhaps a more realistic projection is: an even better version of Hemsky with a Canadian mindset, dare we say?
Of course, I could be all wrong and maybe he's just a lazy goalsuck just like Pavel Brendl ;)
Bonus question: if the goals-vs-assists crowd were present back in Perry's draft season, would they have complained more about his poor goals-to-assists ratio or the fact that he only scored a measly 25 goals? Hmmm...things I'd like to know... ;)
Curtis Hamilton signed his ELC.
ReplyDeletehttp://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=560132&navid=DL|EDM|home
Rich: I'm not urging the Oilers to simply roll the dice and take the guy with the greatest upside, with no regard to how likely that upside is (as much as my Couturier reference might make it seem otherwise). However, I would also urge against taking risk mitigation as the dominant philosophy. This rationale seems to have driven many of Larsson's supporters who argue that their choice is the least likely to bust. This may be true, however if some of the scouts are correct, the best that might be said of him is that he'll wind up as a rich man's Smid. It strikes me that the Oilers could acquire such a player via other means and according to Bruce's latest piece at the CoH, that's exactly what championship teams do.
ReplyDeleteWithout a clear #1 choice, I think we should probably favour upside over risk aversion. For the Oilers to truly compete in the long run, we need an impact player, not a safe pick that we could trade for or sign in three years. Whether that upside is found in Larsson, RNH, Couturier, etc. is the real question for me.
Even if we all disagree, this probably has been one of the best and most informative threads in a while.
ReplyDeleteCongratz to everyone.
@Cactus: Thanks. I found researching that piece a most interesting exercise to say the least.
ReplyDeleteStauffer says he did a survey of seven scouts not connected to the Oilers asking them who they would prefer in a hypothetical choice between Nugent-Hopkins and Seguin, and six of the seven chose RNH. So, no consensus. :)
As for there being no question marks about Hall last season, have folks entirely forgotten the raging debate about how Hall would be killed in the NHL and would be lucky to survive a season? PS: he didn't. :( There are ALWAYS question marks, even if they are mythical health questions.
Larsson is an 18 year old who was playing big minutes in a very good league. He put up impressive numbers in sheltered ice-time in his 17 year old season.
ReplyDeleteThis year he took large strides forward defensively. There is good reason to believe his offense will ramp back up. He looks to be a sublime talent with huge upside as the a franchise defenceman that does it all.
His downside is a good first pairing defenceman that doesn't pump in 50 points like a Chara or Pronger.
I think he's the best prospect currently in the draft. I could be wrong. This draft is going to be very interesting.
FPV: One of the unusual things about Red Deer to my eye was their pro-style way of playing with a lead. Those 13 shutouts didn't happen by accident, and they weren't all goaltending either (although Darcy Kuemper did have a terrific regular season). When sitting on a lead they would allow shots from outside but they wouldn't open it up and trade odd-man rushes, quite the contrary. At the NHL level we call them score effects.
ReplyDeleteI thought that attention to detail would serve them well in the post season but that went out the window against Medicine Hat when Kuemper (and later Dawson Guhle) couldn't stop a beach ball while Tyler Bunz Could stop a BB. It's hard enough to be good goaltending, but impossible to overcome bad netminding at the defensive end.
... hard enough to BEAT good goaltending ...
ReplyDeleteRich
ReplyDeleteOr trade down to pick up another pick and/or prospect. It may be that all of these guys are going to be good NHL players, but that none of them will be great. If that's the case then an argument can be made for trading down a few spots and taking Hamilton or Strome and adding a solid prospect or two in the process.
It would be fun to sit in a war-room discussion and here what MBS, the scouts, 3.0 and Vish have to say.
ReplyDeleteI can't imagine it would be significantly different than what I have read here. Well done everyone on a reasoned, yet passioned debate.
@ Marc:
ReplyDeleteThat is one approach but why not try to package the LA pick and #31 and move up from their versus trading out of #1?
Maybe you can't move up enough to get in that top 10 with that but if you really think there is something of good value it seems to be better (and sorry for using what sounds like a Vish comment) "asset management" to see what's possible that way.
Perhaps those two will not get you up high enough and you'd have to throw in a more established prospect. But this is a better way of managing risk than the KP error of 2003.
Just saying.
Bar Qu: You're talking about Tambellini and Lowe here. Hehe.
ReplyDeleteYou don't want these jackasses trading down for any reason - who are they going to toss away the chance to grab Sakic 2.0 or Lidstrom 2.0 for? Another project?
ReplyDeleteThese are seriously stupid hockey minds. Proven by Alex Plante, Riley Nash, and all the rest.
And I've watched enough of that show Oil Change to realise the organisation is firmly rooted in the 1980's, to an alarming degree.
Plus, Katz doesn't give a fuck about anything until his arena deal goes through.
Hunter: Yeah just that Sakic was a shooter and Lidstrom a late fucking bloomer.
ReplyDeleteThey have nothing to do with the prospects here.
Choppystride,
ReplyDeleteNice post.
Interesting stuff in there.
flamingpavelbure:
ReplyDeleteSakic was a centre, Lidstrom a defenceman.
Besides, R N-H HAS been compared to Sakic, and Larsson to Lidstrom.
So, wtf are you driving at?
fpb,
ReplyDeleteRed Deer had an exeptional goalie. Not a great defense. If you're good on D idk why you would allow more shots just for the hell of it.
We have had the SOG argument before, and while you believe it is the be all and end all, I think it there is a bit more to the story. Not all teams play the same style of game all the time.
Some teams can hold onto the lead when they establish it, especially if they have good goaltending and a solid defensive system.
A "trapping" team that clogs up the middle of the ice and scores on counter attacks and PP will usually get outshot, but they can be successful.
...as for rickibear, you might want to look in the mirror for someone who can't keep the debate over the #1 pick on a practical level...girls? I see you have rejected your NHLE argument for schoolyard name calling. Sounds like you are getting worried.
Hunter: That it's silly to compare RNH to Sakic because they're not at all the same style of player, and Lidstrom had a development curve that had nothing to do with Larsson?
ReplyDeleteShocked there was no suspension on the Torres hit.
ReplyDeleteThey really don't get it in the Toronto office do they? Their rule is the equivalent of the police ignoring drunk driving at routine traffic stops but penalizing with death if an accident occurs.
Punish the fucking action Collie. Who gives a rat's ass what happens afterward.
it's silly to compare RNH to Sakic because they're not at all the same style of player
ReplyDeleteFPV: You know, if you were just accusing Hunter of talking out of his ass I could almost get on board with that :), but you know who else made that that comp? Ken Hitchcock. Here's a more recent version of Hitch's opinion quoted in the Edmonton Journal, part of which was cited in a recent thread:
"My opinion on Nugent-Hopkins has changed ... last summer I thought he reminded me of Joe Sakic, but it's Pavel Datsyuk now," said Hitchcock. "He strips people of the puck, he's crafty in high-traffic areas, he dishes well, he's got great patience with the puck. But, if you're close to either one of those two guys (in ability), that's a pretty good thing."
So due respect, young fella, but unless you've seen this guy play before determining what style of player he is or isn't, maybe it's you who is talking out of his ass this time. No worries, most of us have a turn at that from time to time, I know I do.
Then again, maybe it's Hitch who is talking out of his ass. Wouldn't be the first time. :)
From what I've seen, RNH looks like Ales Hemsky the most. From the way he skates to the way he holds his stick, he is almost a mirror image of Hemsky (except RNH is a lefty, of course).
ReplyDeleteA little off-topic here but since you brought up the Datsyuk comp, I think of all the young players in the game, the one who most resembles Datysuk is Tyler Ennis.
Saw him for the first time in the 2006/07 playoff series against Vancouver when he was still not yet draft eligible and he was someone who stood out then.
His strength is not there yet but his puck skills are top notch and his skating ability is otherworldly. Wouldn't surprise me if he gets there in a few years.
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteI saw Hitchcock's quote when it came out and that certainly is high praise.
I guess the gaggle of scouts who have watched him play 50+ games are on the same page.
I stopped projecting kids a long time ago, its too tough and you look silly often.
Lots of people think he's pretty good though.
I just hope for kids who will turn into Actual NHL players. The Oilers lack those and will for a few years yet I think.
91 will be an Actual NHL player withing 2 years I think, and 4 and 14 already look like them.
Crazy.