Linus Omark is listed at 5.10, 174 on the Edmonton Oilers site. Why then is he so strong on the puck? Low center of gravity? Desire? Pluck? Pluuck? Hell if I know.
Omark found a partner in crime when placed on a line with Magnus Pääjärvi around Christmas. They played mostly with Sam Gagner in the middle, although I'm not certain that's a good fit.
After being sent down (and muttering all the way to the airport) Omark ripped up Oklahoma (once scoring 5 goals in 1 game to imbed the first Baron legend in the OKC hockey fan) and eventually earned his recall to the NHL. Omark played 28% of his season (EVs) with Gagner and the Finnish Swede. Omark made an impression, although I think the heart of his career will be played on a line with a better finisher.
Linus Omark 10-11
- 5x5 points per 60: 1.78 (4th-tie among regular forwards)
- 5x4 points per 60: 3.35 (7th among regular forwards)
- Qual Comp: easiest faced among regular forwards
- Qual Team: poorest available teammates among regular forwards
- Corsi Rel: 8.2 (3rd best among regular forwards)
- Zone Start: 53.4% (3rd easiest among regular forwards)
- Zone Finish: 50.6% (8th best among regular forwards)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 76/6.6% (15th among F's but DNQ)
- Boxcars: 51gp, 5-22-27
- Plus Minus: -16 on a team that was -52
- What do these numbers tell us? Omark is skilled and there's evidence in his rookie numbers. His 5x5/60 is well inside this team's top 6 and his CorsiRel is 3rd best among forwards. He did face soft opposition, but he also played with subpar linemates according to behind the net (I think we can question the qual comp/team numbers this season but he wasn't playing with Hall, Eberle, Penner or Hemsky).
- How could these numbers be better? I've seen a few places mention his poor scoring rate but his scoring rates in the KHL and SEL were much better. Omark's plus minus is poor and he is a high event player so some of those down arrows are probably due to his rookie performance. All within the realm of the easily explained.
- He can win battles. It's the most interesting thing about him. He's like a Sedin-light, it must be a low center of gravity or maybe he's strong in the trunk of has an extra bag of sand somewhere. Either way he can stickhandle in tight areas, make people look silly and he's freakishly strong in puck battles. These are all good things.
- If he's so special why did they send him down in the first place? Asked and answered in August and he clearly had an impact because the club brought him back pretty soonafter the season got rolling. Linus the pinus is going to have an NHL career.
- Will it be as an Oiler? I am beginning think so. He changed my mind during the season. Omark at this point has a chance to play on one of the skill lines along with (probably) Hall, Eberle and Pääjärvi. They might move Gagner or Cogiliano over but Omark showed enough to earn another full season.
- What about his checking? His what now? I don't think Omark is going to be an instant Red Wing winger, but he has some nice things that make him a good candidate for intelligent puck management. Strong on the boards, lots of battle and he can scoot. Omark turns over the puck in bad places but he's a rookie and those things happen. He'll drive his coach crazy but I don't think he'll be cherry picking ala Robert Nilsson when he's been in the league 200 games.
- He's head strong. Maybe he's not coachable? I think we need to agree on his "attitude." Omark was sent down in front of MPS, Brule, Jones, MacIntyre and Stortini (along with Hall, Eberle, Penner and Hemsky). How would you feel if you're Omark and lost your NHL job to one of those guys? Wouldn't you feel as though there was something going on? I think he showed excellent judgement, and not even waiver worries could really justify that decision. Also, his recent disappointment in regard to being sent to the AHL instead of being able to play for his country shows that he's not exactly Derek Sanderson. Omark is not a 20-year old kid, he's a man with international experience and I'd suggest it was natural for him to expect that team Sweden was his springtime goal. He expressed disappointment and then went to OKC. I think Omark--should he emerge as a quality NHL player--will also emerge as a team leader. He's not getting into trouble looking for teammates on the road (and not coming back) and he's not missing flights or barely at the airport on time (which has happened over the years to kids). Omark, based on what we know, isn't some dumb kid. He's a man with a mind of his own. It's a good thing.
- Where does he rank on the RW depth chart? Third, behind Hemsky and Eberle. No sin there, those are two good hockey players. Omark can make things happen in the offensive zone and that will give him a long leash in Edmonton and very likely another NHL chance should it go south in our town.
- How important is he to the Oilers? He could be very important. If Linus Omark can make enough plays that result in goals and improve his positioning without the puck (which you can say about pretty much every Oiler forward) then there's a player here.
Prediction for 2010-11: 25gp, 5-5-10 (.400)
Acutal 2010: 51gp, 5-22-27 (.529)
He's a player
Why then is he so strong on the puck? Low center of gravity? Desire?
ReplyDeleteStrong center of desire.
Ann Margret pic, please.
A few things:
ReplyDelete- Linus plays harder on a consistent basis than just about anyone on the roster. He doesn't take shifts off, he doesn't take nights off. The guy wants to win SO badly.
- He wins those corner battles for a number of reasons, but centrally that he's an elite stickhandler, uses his body positioning excellently, and never quits. So many guys lose those battles because they simply concede them when things get iffy. Not so with him.
- If he's not running the powerplay next season; we're trying to lose. The guy is a genius.
- What many people miss is that there's the potential for a very very good defensive zone forward within the tools of his game. The way he wins those battles, his positioning, and his sheer confidence make him an ideal candidate to be turned into an own-zone star just as much as an offensive zone one. We just need to identify someone (either coach or player-mentor) to draw this out of him.
Omark ripped up Oklahoma (once scoring 5 games
ReplyDeleteGoals, lol. Unless he's Dennis.
although I think the heart of his career will be played on a line with a better finisher.
Not with the Oilers then? We draft playmakers over goal-scorers. See NH, R.
He's a player.
ReplyDeleteGuess he's not the new Schremp after all, BAZING!
I like Omark a lot. He's got the confidence and ability to score in unconventional ways and that's a plus on any roster.
Martin Erat is a good comparable in my mind, both in terms of style and ability to produce. Erat is listed as bigger, but the difference is pretty negligible on the ice.
There has been quite a bit of talk about Omark's sulkiness/bitchiness/attitude. I've nothing first hand to offer on this but I wonder how much of this is a problem of something being lost in translation.
ReplyDeleteI have spent quite a bit of time working in different Scandinavian countries and have by now quite a number of good Scandinavian friends. While they are all quite different individuals, my mates aren't terribly warm and fuzzy people. Outwardly at least, they are straight arrows, very plain spoken and unwilling to varnish what they say except to slide in a sardonic joke. My friends are brutally honest, sometimes that makes them sound severe but they aren't at all being nasty. You have to remember that the honesty is an expression of respect (lies and distortion are not!) and they expect the same in return.
I don't see how Omark has done anything but be honest and particularly frank. The terseness and conceit that some disparage as complaints might amount simply to mutual mis-translations and it might take some time for most of us to "get" what he says.
Yeah, I'm with Jiminho. It strikes me as a bit of a Euro thing generally. I've really started following soccer over the past year and I've been amazed, on a number of occasions, by players being critical of coaches and their teams as well as the relatively low level of astonishment that it produces as a response. Stuff like what Linus said isn't terribly uncommon and, by and large, it sort of passes without much in the way of the hyperbolic comment that Linus' comments attract.
ReplyDeleteI wonder the extent to which it's simply the culture of the sport. Hockey's got a far more Canadian culture and we are, generally speaking, pretty deferential to authority. The coach and team are the bosses, the players do as they're told and like it.
Personally, I think too much is made of it. I like a guy with a little swagger, which Linus has in buckets and he looks to have some game to back it up.
One other thing LT - Linus had extraordinarily low on ice S% numbers this year. The percentages did not like him. When you watch some of the goals he set up, tap-ins for other guys, it wouldn't surprise me if he's a guy who can be expected to have good on-ice S%'s going forward.
There's an absolute ton to love about him. Probably my favourite of the new crop of Oilers.
Renney was just on the radio and they got to talking about Omark. He said that he needed to get stronger as he was likely to get "rocked" playing the way he does. He also said Linus has to improve his skating - he is quick, but not fast - an ok skater.
ReplyDeleteHe also mentioned how he is not scared to take the responsibility that comes with holding the puck and being an offensive player.
The best thing you can say about a player is that he has a high level of compete. Linus has that.
Earlier this year, I was able to tell Omark that I think he's an outstanding prospect, and that I think he has every chance of lifting the cup with the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteHe's seems like a really good and humble guy, not a prick in any way whatsoever.
A lot of fun watching this guy. If someone learns to be prepared for his spin-o-rama passes I think he'd see his points totals skyrocket.
ReplyDeleteI do hope he works on his shot, though. It still seems like a big flaw in his game.
it's hard for hockey players to improve in a vaccuum...maybe they ice a proper roster one of these years and let the team grow like they're supposed to.
ReplyDeletePS: I just read a review of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins somewhere, from his coach - dude sure sounds like some kind of hockey player.
If you get the opportunity, LT, could you ask some of the coaches you talk to, how much they feel language barrier interrupts rookie (early career) development when Europeans come over? I know some come over with great English language skilsls, others not so much.
ReplyDeleteI ask, because it sometimes seems that two Finns or two Swedes will find success together, like Omark and Magnum. I'm curious if this is because of communication or national hockey programs that ingrain players to play a certain way. No doubt a combination of many factors, but i'd love to hear a litle about it. Dave King's book provides an interesting look at the issue from a coaches perspective.
PS: I just read a review of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins somewhere, from his MOM - dude sure sounds like some kind of hockey player.
ReplyDeleterickibear; The guy's ranked number 1 ffs...
ReplyDeleteI wonder who your personal fave is?
Hunter: So were Daigle and Stefan.
ReplyDeleteDaigle was drafted in a year when scouting was FAR inferior to todays calibre IMO.
ReplyDeleteStefan was derailed with major injuries, including his jaw, neck and concussion(s) during his U20 years, so theres a risk of that happening to anyone regardless of who you pick.
Stefan missed 49 games in his draft year, but ATL drafted him anyways.
ReplyDeleteI don't think thats comparable to the question marks that surround RNH.
Danny: Even today a kid with 140 points on draft day would be N1 regardless.
ReplyDeleteTheir draft profiles are actually pretty similar, same size, similar goals/assists ration.
Daigle failed in the NHL because he wasn't serious and didn't put on some weight. Maybe the latter could be an issue for RNH.
He's Jiri Hudler with a little less speed and a little more flash.
ReplyDeleteLike Hudler he destroys the AHL, but will top out at around 50 points in the show.
Fantastic player to watch. That battle level for the puck is refreshing. Would be nice to see that out of some of the vets.
He'll replace some of the entertainment value once Hemsky is traded.
Danny: I've never said these guys had anything to do with each other, only mentionned they were also projected N1.
ReplyDeletefpb: Daniel Corso had 114 pts with the same team a couple years later during his draft year and was drafted in the 7th round.
ReplyDeleteI don't think 140 in the 90's QMJHL was a guaranteed #1 overall.
Where does he rank on the RW depth chart?
ReplyDeleteConsidering Hemsky is hurt 40 games a year (I keep him on a contract year by the way), 3rd on deck isnt that bad of a position to be in.
Hunter I bet you all the other top 5 players coaches think they are the #1.
ReplyDeleteBut oh well if we draftRNH i look forward to his 16-20G a year.
Another number that you left out was his 6.6% shooting percentage. Not only is that low for a player like him, but it's far below anything he's done in the past in any league where those stats are available. That's Zach Stortini/Theo Peckham territory.
ReplyDeleteYou've got to think his career average will probably end up almost twice that. It seems like he wasn't getting any breaks this year.
rickibear etc: R N-H is the consensus number 1 pick. it doesn't really mean that his coach's opinion is totally biased, especially when that coach provides a good analysis of his future in terms of weight(he says he'll probably fill out to 190), his low ev strength goals(he's a very good two way player already) totally committed to improving his overall game at all times, and other things.
ReplyDeletethis isn't Schremp v 2.0
I understand that you probably want another player, but wtf this is the internet, where everyone's opinion really matters.
Guys who were also projected number one: Taylor Hall, John Tavares, Steven Stamkos, Patrick Kane, Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Rick Nash, and Ilya Kovalchuk.
ReplyDeleteThose were all of the forwards taken at number one in the past ten years, by the way.
I should say drafted at number one rather than projected.
ReplyDeleteI think you're on to something Jiminho, in regards to Omark's adjustment.
ReplyDeleteI have family in Sweden and every one of them speak English and at first one could say they have a firm grasp of the language. However on many occasions, particularly when I was joking, there was a pause and then a realization of how damn funny I am. If you aren't aware of this, then you could easily mistake misunderstanding as arrogance or being uppity.
Omark was one of the few exciting things to anticipate in the lineup by the end of the season with all the injuries.
ReplyDeleteHe got lost in the shuffle of kids at the start of the season - and thinking back it's possible that some in the org may (not saying they did) diss him for going to the KHL a year. Who knows what would have happened if he'd played for OTC.
A playmaker on a team that has very few finishers. If anything, this is my #1 concern re: RNH and taking him first (followed close by % of PP points). I don't think the kid will be another Schremp, but am not convinced he's the answer either.
Jon K: how many Have a low points from Goals ratio? Oh thats right And your list is all better than 4% from goals. Thanks for proving my point! low goals bad more goals good.
ReplyDeleteBarons tweet...
ReplyDeleteColten Teubert out tonight after injuring his shoulder last night.
Omark is a fantastic talent. it is really interesting watching him every shift and seeing only hot and cold. The people who are unhappy with him probably forget he is a rookie, but that is because he is playing just so well.
ReplyDeleteThe number that stuck out is how poor his linemate quality was. That and his shooting percentage. Improve those two categories (and sh% will improve, as has already been pointed out) and his numbers will be significantly better.
I hope to watch him in Oiler silks for a long time.
pocomp - Schremp is a pocomp for Omark
Rickibear,
ReplyDeleteWhere did you post your research on RNH?
I've seen others allude to it, but never saw the post.
Thanks.
Rickibear: I think you're correct in pointing out some flaws in RNH. However, this is not a discussion of absolute value - it's about relative value. All of the potential top prospects have at least one big question or flaw:
ReplyDelete-Larsson: may not have much offensive talent based on the last season.
-Landeskog: may be a good two-way player, but not an elite offensive talent.
-Couturier: doesn't seem to play hard enough; has skating concerns.
-Huberdeau: only one good season on an elite offensive team, a bit skinny (6'1-171)
I'm generalizing for the sake of brevity, but I believe that it's not enough to be down on one prospect - you need to show why another, potentially flawed guy is better.
Woodguy - I think this is the biggest one... Link
ReplyDeleteWell the MacT cancer rumours have been confirmed.
ReplyDeleteDreger report...
Working as an analyst for the NHL on TSN has helped keep him on top of the game and he's enjoyed the scouting role he has with the Oilers, but MacTavish wants the world to know two things: One - he's officially looking for a job and two - he's healthy and ready to meet and tackle any challenges that come with the job.
"I'm healthy and I'm feeling good and have a very good prognosis," said the 52-year-old - referring to a battle with cancer most around the NHL are aware of - but one MacTavish confidently says won't hold him back.
The whole article is a good read...Link
I like Omark a lot and his seeming chemistry with MP in particular. Nice skill and compete levels for a player his size with some cockiness thrown in for good measure. Just not sure how he fits with Oiler future plans if traditional #1 - 3 line roles are incorporated.
ReplyDeleteOmark seems a best fit option for a top 6, straight up offensive role and PP qb but I just can't see the Oilers fitting 3 smallish players into that top 6. Can't see him in a traditional 3rd line shutdown role either and 4th line doesn't really matter much and would be a waste of the kids talent.
I can see him being an addin to any trade talks this offseason if efforts are actually being made to move up in the draft.
Well the MacT cancer rumours have been confirmed.
ReplyDelete*COUGH*
FPB: I don't think Daigle or Stefan suffered from the same statistical fault you're pointing out, and yet they still busted. So how does throwing their names out there prove anything?
ReplyDeleteTo clarify, my point is that we're going to get a good player at number one, no matter which forward we take. That is, so long as the scouts do their due diligence. Right now the scouts are practically screaming for RNH to be picked first. I trust them over some arbitrary line in the statistical sand.
*COUGH*
ReplyDeleteYup, your insider info back from October or so was indeed legit.
Jon K: You trust a bunch of guys who don't have any specific formations or knowledge?
ReplyDeleteRemember being a scout doesn't require to be anything else than a man (I've never heard of a woman scouting so far).
So it's someones arbitrary judgement vs stats.
As for Daigle and Stefan, I just said they had nothing to do with each other. Aside from the fact they were also N1, replicating to Hunter's speach that RNH was a N1. HENCE it's not a can't miss.
However, looking back, Daigle also had an enormous assist/point ratio and was very small out of the Q, which COULD also be a problem for RNH.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteOmark's role should be as secondary scoring and primary powerplay. To me, this means a spot on the third line. The traditional checking line is dead and good riddance. We have enough talented and balanced forwards to head into the future throwing 3 offensive lines at other teams, all of which can hold their own in the D zone.
ReplyDeleteI have been reading a lot of posts commenting that the Oilers should consider trading down to gain an asset and still secure a top 10. Is there any recent examples of other NHL teams with lottery or top 10 picks who have done so? I imagine it is a lot more difficult to do than some may think.
ReplyDeleteStrange. I would have thought many more people who spent the past few years going on about what a shitty coach MacT was because he didn't have a job would have posted by now about how appallingly wrong they were.
ReplyDeleteMc: I think people just rambled on him being a shitty coach, just be cause they tought (rightfully or not) he was.
ReplyDeleteIt was just a secondary arguement to piss people off.
Having a job in the NHL does not make you competent. Plenty of team employees prove this every day.
FPB: What evidence do you have to suggest that NHL management and scouting teams don't use statistics as part of their analysis of players? I suspect the answer is none whatsoever.
ReplyDeleteAnd I didn't say I trust scouts over statistics. To the contrary I think an analysis using all available forms of information is probably the best bet, as is usually the case with all things. I just said that I prefer them over your arbitrary cut-offs or ratios of how many points a player should have from this or that. If you could direct me to evidence suggesting that your statistical devices are useful I'd be happy to reconsider my position.
Is there any recent examples of other NHL teams with lottery or top 10 picks who have done so? I imagine it is a lot more difficult to do than some may think.
ReplyDeleteThe Islanders, anyways. They went what, 5 to 7 to 9 in 2008? Something like that?
Jon K: My research strongly suggested that at the rate this year'S top guys were producing, it was by a margin of 30% safer to go with the 6''3 + guys.
ReplyDeleteYou don't have a proof they do either.
I don't see how my research was arbitrary at all. I selected guys with simlar size, draft ranks and productions to compare the bet covering % on both type of players.
While smaller guys did seem to have better ceilings, the tree gang was almost can't miss.
Schitzo: Do you know what they gained in making that move?
ReplyDeleteFPB: I thought you were referring to percentage of points from goals? I don't think we were talking about your percentage success rate of 6'3" + players.
ReplyDeleteStrange. I would have thought many more people who spent the past few years going on about what a shitty coach MacT was because he didn't have a job would have posted by now about how appallingly wrong they were.
ReplyDelete*nudges hunter* I think he means you...
Psyche:
ReplyDeleteTo move down two spots, the Islanders acquired:
Islanders choice of either 2008 second round pick (not exercied) and 2009 third round pick (not exercised), or 2008 third round pick (#68-Shawn Lalonde) and 2009 second round pick (#37-Matt Clark)
To move down another two spots the Islanders acquired:
2008 second round pick (#40-Aaron Ness)
So two seconds and a third to move 4 spots.
I just found it. Islanders traded down in 2008 from #7 to #9 (Nashville) and received a 2nd round pick in 2008 as compensation.
ReplyDeleteWith #9 the Islanders selected Josh Bailey, At #7 the Predators selected Colin Wilson.
Jon K: Well more or less. I just basically said that Stefan or Daigle has no empirical evidence that I know to relate them to RNH suggesting he would be a bust, outside of being N1. Hence just pissing on Hunter's comment.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I mentionned the research to say that my stance on RNH didn't lie in any arbitrary research.
The only ''suspection'' I would rise with RNH (Without too much of evidence) is that is goals/points ratio is tremendously low. The same happened with Daigle.
In brief, it's just an allusion. To complete my research I went trough every player drafted out of the CHL (Forwards) in the 1st round from 1980 to now. And I can't seem to remember any player who had such a low ratio has those two.
I'm only suggesting there MIGHT be something there. Not that we should base our choice on that.
Anyway. Got class. See ya guys.
Thanks Schitzo. I missed that first movement down.
ReplyDeleteJon k....
ReplyDeleteI thought the ratio thing was ricki's. You can find his original post on the matter through Ribs' link above, about halfway down the thread.
Anyway. Got class.
ReplyDeleteI've always said that about you.
Has anybody seen my pants?
Not a MacT basher. Never have been one but for MacT to have done what he did with what he had is pretty impressive. Would think the OTC and Renney would have kinda highlighted just how good a job MacT, Huddy and B Moores did. How many 30th place finishes did MacT have again?
ReplyDeleteSimilar to Bary Trotz. Not best hockey talent but always finds a way to get most out of what he has.
I really like Omark. I think he has a chance to be a very nice secondary scorer and PP specialist. He will not flourish until the Oilers get a much larger corp of forwards and a couple of miserable SOB's on the backend...ala Peckham and Smith.
Don't you think teams come into Rexall and say whether or not they win it will not be a hard game. At least with his compete level Omark is hard to play against
Has anybody seen my pants?
ReplyDeleteAre they down around your ankles?
What? Because I don't know MacT was sick, means I have to like his coaching of the Oilers?
ReplyDeleteAnything else your grace? Like, saying what a great job Kevin Lowe's been doing for the past five seasons?
To be fair, MacT was a great playoff coach in 2006. Also, I was probably wrong about the reason for his not coaching.
I hope MacT gets a job for next season, coaching the LA Kings, and somehow in all the excitment manages to take Vish with him. Toonces can stay, since as far as I can see he still hasn't done anything particularly wrong.
And while I'm being escorted to the stocks, I might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb. Penner's not exactly flavour of the month in lotusland - which really confuses me - since either he really is a totally shit player, yet despite his titanic struggles of late, was still considered a top two veteran forward presense for the OIlers, further highlighting the depths which this Oilers team has sunk.
*a new Ryan Nugent-Hopkins fan*
woodguy: 6 months ago when i looked at Czerwanka's performance relative to Martindale and Hamilton. Looking at the 6'2" plus guys. The ratio Idea kicked in my mind.
ReplyDeleteIt was probably 18 months ago I had a converstion RE hemsky. with Boston Fans. The issue of goals was constantly brought up.
Then i finally got it. The problabilty of a goal from pocession from a straight line player whom shoots is so superior to the goals that result from a pass first player like hemsky.
Think about it. The passer has to get the puck to a shooter for the scoring metrics to start. But how often does the attempted pass die. it makes that process less efficient.
1 playmaker per line is more than enough the more shooters the better.
We already have more than enough.
It is at that point that I asked what top 15 players had Ryan Nugent Hopkins Goals to assist Ratio. I looked back 20 years and the list was scary. Daigle Bonsignore, Kelly, Stefan, Niinimaki, Gagner. One i did miss was Kariya.
What is a parrent was a general failure of these players.
Apon further review even Gagner, And Kariya fit a trend. The low goals from points guys ended with NHL career numbers 40% less or worse than projected NHLE.
Once there was the discussion ev and PP totals on lowetides Blog. This steered us to Prospect points by ev/PP. It made me question the reason for these results.
1. was the NHLE less accurate as a player moved away from a 50/50 g/a ratio
2. Was the NHLE less accurate based on the high PP totals generated by an unrealistic count generated in junior.
If I had desjardins data It would be interesting to see the curves trended based on
-G/A to get NHLE curves based on 5% blocks of G
-EV/PP to get NHLE curves based on 5% blocks of EV
All i know is that ratio does not lend to an accurate NHLE unless you divide the NHLE by two for guys 30% or lower.
Gagner and Kariya also eliminates the pathetic the others don't try excuse presented by some here.
The trend found says do not touch RNH with aten foot pole. However if you COuld get RNH at #10-#20 like hemsky you thank your lucky stars.
I just went over to LA Kings message board out of curiousity and sure enough, 2nd topic from the top "Get Rid of Penner!".
ReplyDeleteOh boy, he better get going or it will be rough sledding for the big man down there. Some of the comments could be copy/pasted from Oilers boards last 3 years.
A reminder of two points RLR made last month:
ReplyDelete2. The top eight (possibly nine) guys on the [draft] list have separated themselves out from the pack.
3. Ask 10 scouts to put an order to those eight to nine guys and you'll get 10 different answers. There is no clearly delineated order this year.
I would guess too, that the scouts that have been polled thus far this year--the ones willing to speak--don't have any picks in the Top 10, so that there's no issues of breaking secrecy etc.
Also, I was probably wrong about the reason for his not coaching.
ReplyDeleteProbably.
Ricki: I think I understand what you're saying. Do you have a blog or blog post that lays out your ideas in more depth? It would probably do your ideas justice. I was taking a look at another post of yours that someone cited above as well.
ReplyDeleteWould think the OTC and Renney would have kinda highlighted just how good a job MacT
ReplyDeleteI've said this before, but MacT should have been given the Jack Adams awards retroactively for 08/09 for getting 85pts (11th in West) with basically the same crew that OTC guided to 62pts last year.
rickibear,
Its interesting stuff, but I haven't had time to grind some of the numbers to have a look myself.
Thanks for the work on this interesting view on player projection.
Agree or not, its some interesting stuff to digest.
rickibear: Your stats on "Hoppy" compared to those busts are terrifying.
ReplyDeleteRemind me never to disagree with anything you say again.
MC
ReplyDeleteYour reply was appropriately laconic:
Once a Spartan general captured an enemy city. His dispatch home said “City taken.” The magistrates chastised him for being verbose. “Taken,”would have sufficed.
Interesting thoughts rickibear. Puts numbers and ratio's to the theory (playmaker vs. scorer) which is at the core of the Oilers draft decision.
ReplyDeleteWould love to look at some numbers in depth on that.
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ReplyDeleteSince I haven't had any sleep since Monday night, and have been celebrating extremely good career news I might as well try magnanimous so...
ReplyDelete-probably
Where is Steve Smith with his trademarked quip when you need him? Passed out in some law library without pants, no doubt.
ReplyDeleteIf I recall, he said on Friday that he only had 6 more days until he was done school. Home stretch!
Hunter, you probably want to get some shut eye if you haven't had any sleep in 48 straight hours.
ReplyDeleteYou can and will die quite suddenly if you don't sleep for 3 days or so. It varies from person to person but once you start going over 48 hours you're starting into dangerous territory.
As a dumb kid I once went about 54 hours during New Year's festivities. All I remember was walking over to some blinds to close them and that's it. Woke up about a day later about 3 feet short from the blinds. Very nearly could have died.
Who knew you could just drop dead like that from sleep deprivation. Fortunately I didn't have too many stimulants coursing through my body and it was just able to shutdown and do maintenance.
RNH 6'0" April Bday 31 goals
ReplyDeleteHUB 6"1" June Bday 43 goals
Younger!
Taller!
Better goal scorer!
And there are no complaints about his skating or compete level either.
What is it about RNH other than familiarity that makes him the lock for #1 overall?
Hopefully Huberdeau's deeper foray into the playoffs earns him more attention from the Western scouts. A Memorial Cup appearance would be nice.
Where is Steve Smith with his trademarked quip when you need him?
ReplyDeleteHard to say - the situation has never come up.
What happens when RNH passes to Hemsky, Omark, Gagner?
ReplyDeleteDo they pass it again?
What happens when one of these 3 excellent passers sends RNH a sweet set-up? Does he pass it again?
This team needs finishers.
Passers are much easier to find when you need one.
Hemsky is a shooter if you dont force him to lug the puck all the time.
ReplyDeleteEberle is a shooter.
Hall is a shooter.
Paajarvi can shoot.
Linus is a dynamic finisher.
Guys named Teemu score.
Give any of these guys the role.
Thanks for all the work on the subject rickibear - I'd love to see a complete list of players with that range of goals:total points ratios drafted in the top ten.
ReplyDeleteWhat amazes me looking at top 4 picks in the past 20 years is how exceedingly rare it is. I've pulled those with around 37% or less in their draft year just to have a reasonable number to compare to (but may have missed some):
Daigle (32.8%) - 1st
Stefan (31.4%) - 1st
Bonsignore (25.6%) - 4th
Spezza (37%) - 2nd
Thornton (33.6%) - 1st
Kariya (25%) - 4th
Johansen (36.2%) - 4th
RNH (29%)
It's definitely scary to see three pretty huge busts on that list and I think you're right that there's more that can go wrong (in terms of specific goal-scoring plays and in terms of success at the NHL level) when you draft a playmaker. (I don't know if you'd really consider Daigle only a playmaker either - he put up 0.85 GPG in his draft year but an obscene 2.58 PPG)
The three other (ignoring Johansen becuase of his age) players on that list are PPG players over their careers in the NHL.
Outside of Hall and possible Eberle, who else out of the top 9 depth chart is a pure finisher... no one. Hartski we haven't seen enough of yet to include in the top 9. I agree Hemsky CAN be, but he himself has admitted that he thinks pass first.
ReplyDeleteNot to mention, since "scoring goals is the hardest thing to do in the NHL", there is no reason not to improve this department over improving the play-making department.
Take the goal-scorer. Always.
Sorry, that was @ LMHF, if it wasn't obvious.
ReplyDeleteLMHF:
ReplyDeleteOmark 5-22-27; 6.6% SH%.
He hasn't proven to be an accomplished finisher at this level yet. His shot is suspect. His vision, compete and creativity are not. Like RNH.
Bah I typed out a long post but blogger ate it.
ReplyDeleteIt was regarding the use of Bonsignore and Daigle to predict future success (or lack thereof) for players like RNH. The long and short of it is that those guys probably weren't held back by a lack of talent. They didn't make it because they didn't have the motivation and work ethic to play hockey at the NHL level. Bonsignore's love for kart racing was hilariously infamous, and Daigle personally admitted that he lacked the desire to play hockey early in his pro career.
The second part was that scouting has come a long way even in the past decade. I think Stefan's injury concerns, level of competition in the IHL, and level of production viewed objectively would probably prevent him going 1st overall in a modern draft.
The draft combine physicals and interviews, as well as increasing context provided by statistical analysis probably would have screened those guys now.
If Huberdeau had been ranked higher going into this season he would be universally ranked top 3. Many scouts have commented how he came from nowhere. He is by far the biggest mover of the first round. That June birthday has an even bigger effect at 16.
ReplyDeleteHis Autumn 2011 is the correlate to the Spring 2011 play of the 1992 Bdays. His Spring 2011 play could perhaps be compared to RNH's Fall 2010 split.
Spoil - I'm aware, and i'm mostly with you on the concept fo trying to take guys who score more goals. I havent watched enough JR to say who we should take this year. My argument would be, as ever, BPA. Filling needs is not done at the draft and our scoring ability is underrated.
ReplyDeleteLMHF, all other things being equal I'd assert that goal-scoring is what indicates BPA.
ReplyDeleteI wish I had seen more Jr too; hopefully the Hoob makes it to the Memorial. I'd like to see as much of him as I've seen of RNH.
Spoiler: is it really enough to say that Huberdeau would be in the top 3 if he had been ranked higher earlier in the season? If he is truly the statistical phenom that the (admittedly limited) math suggests that he is, why is he only just cracking the top 5? The Lowetide community cannot be the only ones in the world who have noticed the importance of goalscoring or the calculation of NHLEs. What do the scouts/other news sources have that holds him back?
ReplyDeleteNote: "scouts are stupid" is not a productive response.
I was really happy with Linus working the puck behind the net late in the season.
ReplyDeleteThat to me says the coaching is sticking, he's not trying to be highlight-reel Linus on every play.
Also his secondary numbers could foretell a significant breakout a season or two down the road.
I think I'll be twice as pissed at Oilers brass if they stupidly deal Omark now than I was with the Satan deal...
Cactus...
ReplyDeleteHe's ranked 4th on RLR and Bobby Mas's list. He came from 20 spots back. He gets less looks early on because of that, and gets nicked for not having been thought a top 20 pick a year ago. Pedigree.
Huberdeau is very much on the Oilers radar (both MBS and Tambellini have uttered his name among the select few), and since they pick first, it is possible they take him first overall. RNH looks more probable at this point, but there is a lot of contemplation yet to take place. Why argue? Stu has done us well so far. Let's trust that he will deliver again (until he doesn't or moves to Mexico).
ReplyDeleteMacT was a great coach when given a team that match his coaching strengths.
ReplyDeleteHe could get a 75 cents out of 60 cent players. He could get 85 cents out of 75 cent players. If they were ready to play hard nosed and were susceptible for buying into defensive minded hockey.
However, MacT began looking extremely inadequate and in the end insane because his type of team was dismantled in favor of the detroit model. (skill reigns supreme).
Again, the coach took the fall for one of Lowe's many poorly thought out plans. By the he was fired, Lowe's masterpiece was so far removed from his coaches strengths and ability that the only shock is still, and appears will continue to be, how Lowe has any input into the daily operation of this franchise.
I find it counter productive to debate his merits based on team performance when the results almost exactly jekyl and hyde based on team composition.
My vote is the obvious:
ReplyDeleteIf MBS doesn't find that much seperation between the top 3-5 players, the bounty for handing over the first overall pick may just be worth listening to.
Say the B's don't believe Seguin is tracking where they like and also might have some interest in pushing back the due date of their plumb prospect. Maybe Hemsky/1st plus a second gets you Seguin/Leaf's 1st and boston's 2nd.
Ps: I'm cheering for the bruins to just fall short simply to push there desire past a reasonable point.
Maybe the Leaf's and king's firsts gets you back into the top 5. To pick up the likes of SC. A creative salesman could likely do a lot with what the oiler's have right now and where they are in their development process.
However, MacT began looking extremely inadequate and in the end insane because his type of team was dismantled in favor of the detroit model. (skill reigns supreme).
ReplyDeleteI suspect his problem was more that the "Detroit model" was staffed with guys who wouldn't be good enough to play for Detroit.
@ MC
ReplyDeleteYeah, I forgot the quoatations around Detroit model. It left my brain with a lot more venom than it reads here.
Shrugs
Stefan went #1 because because they didn't want to risk drafting only 1 Sedin.
ReplyDeleteFor me the three years of video for linus showed a one man cycle. watch this! deja vu.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UCG0Ik-Mb0&feature=related
Instead of taking advantage of the GIFT of the first overall pick, the same fools responsible for the worst team in the NHL are expected suddenly become successful wheeler dealers?
ReplyDeleteThe entire premise of getting the 1st pick is to provide a guaranteed good to great player for a terrible team, based on the fact that the 30th place team is nearly certain to be run by inferior managers.
Fail.
Hunter:
ReplyDeleteThose same poor managers could completely screw up the 1st overall pick.
Yes. This management leaves little to have faith in. No matter how many first overall picks we get, we very well might continue unabated to do so.
I don't disagree with you. I just don't really grasp if you're post is some type meaningful response to what I'm saying.
Representing the oddly entertaining yet often prone for wild statements of fluxing opinions:
Hunter your opening statement please...
"Oiler's management is too terrible to trust to do anything right!"
Representing the semi literate, integrates who now find themselves still drawn as a fan simply because he is fascinated by how biased, poorly researched media influences the majority of the population and some day dreams of writing the novel "how stupid people smartly sell dumb ideas".
Maudite your rebuttal please...
"I completely agree."
I forgot one thing (aside from rereading my post to remove glaring errors)
ReplyDeletering a ding ding baby!!
mc79hockey said...
ReplyDeleteHowever, MacT began looking extremely inadequate and in the end insane because his type of team was dismantled in favor of the detroit model. (skill reigns supreme).
I suspect his problem was more that the "Detroit model" was staffed with guys who wouldn't be good enough to play for Detroit.
Actually, it's the early 80's Detroit model. The hockey equivalent of a long walk off a short pier.
Jon K: I always copy my post before I send it; I've had so many of them eaten that I always have a back-up
ReplyDeleteAs for MacT, I for one am ready to welcome back our new old overlord;)
ReplyDeleteI'm impressed and surprised he was able to keep his cancer diagnosis under wraps and, also, did we know he was still scouting for the Oilers??
I know his commentary was always tinged with an Oilers-skew but I don't think it was ever said that he was still on the payroll.
As for 23, I like him but I'd like him more if he could score more goals. He's still young enough that I'll break out the old chestnut of "we'll know a lot more about him by the end of next year."
Not to turn things back to the draft again, but what do you think of RNH's serious problems when trying to score at ES?
ReplyDeleteHowever, MacT began looking extremely inadequate and in the end insane because his type of team was dismantled in favor of the detroit model. (skill reigns supreme).
ReplyDeleteI think MacT started to lose his shit because Lowe kept taking away his Real NHL Players and replaced them with Not Real NHL Players.
Lowe did this while increasing payroll, so while the caliber of player when down the expectations went up.
Its kinda like Sisyphus except the rock keeps getting bigger and the slope gets steeper.
No wonder MacT called it a "mercy killing" when he was fired.
Then one OTC and 2 versions of Tambellini later Lowe gets "clarity"
ReplyDeleteLordy.
ReplyDeleteThe three other (ignoring Johansen becuase of his age) players on that list are PPG players over their careers in the NHL.
Last Oiler to play a full schedule and hit 1pt/gm was Doug Weight in 00/01, 92pts in 82 gms.
That was 10 years ago.
Smyth hit 67pts in 66gm in 02/03.
I wouldn't mind having that on the Oilers again.
Doug Weight was 21g 48a 69pts in 46 games for Lake Superior State in his draft year.
Ryan Smyth was 50g 55a 105pts in 72 games for the Moose Jaw Warriors in 93/94, his draft year.
Woodguy: His NCAA numbers were so high it doesn't even compare to anyone in the draft.
ReplyDeleteHis NCAA numbers were so high it doesn't even compare to anyone in the draft.
ReplyDeleteBut his goals-to-points ratio was crap.
Just absolute crap ;)
@jon_k,
ReplyDeleteI noticed that blogger sometimes eats longer posts, however it does not eat them if you use the preview button and then post.
Sounds like a bug in there somewhere.
Also Dennis, I do the same - copy anything longer than a couple sentences first before posting.
re: MacT on the payroll.
ReplyDeleteIt was known he was still employed by the Oilers - for his final year of the coaching contract. It was a bit of a mystery what exactly he did. I do remember some comments on here that someone pointed out MacT was with the Oilers scouting groups watching Taylor and Tyler last year. Maybe even at the prospects game ?
Btw, nice to seen OKC pull off another win last night. 5-2. Linus with 1G, 1A. Same with Arcobello. Hell even the Zach-attack scored.
ReplyDeleteI am still undecided about Linus as far as top end goes, but he does enough things well that he should slot ahead of several players we could name.
ReplyDeleteAs for the repeteated No 1 debate;
I actually agree with rickibear on the need for a balance of set-up guys with the shooters.
However, beyond (likely not long for Edmonton) Hemsky, how many forwards are really set-up men? Say we ignore centres, here are some of the wingers that have played in the top 9 this year:
Hemsky-definitely a pass first guy
Hall-G/A balanced
Eberle-G/A towards A this season, pre NHL balanced
Pajaarvi-balanced
Omark-NHL G/A is biased to A, but pre NHL balanced
Jones-G heavy
Hartakainen-G/A balanced
Reddox-A heavy
I don't think that is a forward line-up that couldn't make use of a high end passing centre. I also think right wing will look a little thin without Hemsky there...
To MC79 and all the others: I feel bound to tell the truth here, for a change. The truth of the matter is, I retain no anti-MacT sentiments whatsoever.
ReplyDeleteThis doesn't mean I want him anywhere near the Oilers, but I'd love to see him back coaching in the NHL, and all the best to him.
And to whoever knew before about his health issues: This is the internet. Telling the truth online is about as impossible as making up a tall tale. This is simply the nature of the beast, and I'm not interested in changing the world. Yes, news that MacT really is/was sick shuts me the fuck up. You were right, and I was wrong.
MC79: I intentionally used the word "probably" in honour of all you lawyers. My cousin is a seven figure a year barrister and to hear him talk, no one in their right mind ever admits anything, anywhere, ever. It's a fair cop!
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteJust precede everything you concede with "if" and follow it with "which is not admitted but explicitly denied". It's called "alternative pleading".
ReplyDeleteI'm not at all sure that these things that I'm typing are words.
Steve Smith: Fact: I used to go to Oiler games as a little kid and think Steve Smith and Kevin Lowe were the same player.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the free legal advice, lol, but, whenever I go to a lawyer I spend the time listening intently, then usually forget everything withing 5 minutes of leaving the office.
I wanted to go to law school when I was 13, I thought it would be a good way of making sure i could hire myself a hot girl to be my secretary and...
One nice thing I will say about you legal types - you stand at the gates of chaos, helping the human race to solve their differences. Like stockbrokers, you get to cover the each way re outcomes. Great racket!
I wanted to go to law school when I was 13, I thought it would be a good way of making sure i could hire myself a hot girl to be my secretary and...
ReplyDeleteI think you've adequately described the motivation for 95% of the males in the profession right there.
Hoil:
ReplyDeleteHorcoff 34%G, 66%A
Gagner 34%G 66%A
I would be quite oK with both at center with 17-20G and 33-40A from each and +. 35A makes the twotop 25for center assists. 40 Assists would be top 40 for forwards.
Hemsky 30%G 70%A Since the lockout. the last three years his pace has been 25G 50A seasons.
These three should never be on the same line. it reduces the goals/M cap hit for there lines.
Steve Smith: Fact: I used to go to Oiler games as a little kid and think Steve Smith and Kevin Lowe were the same player.
ReplyDeleteIf Kevin Lowe and Steve Smith were the same player, which is not admitted but specifically denied, then you were a lot more insightful than I've given you credit for.
I think you've adequately described the motivation for 95% of the males in the profession right there.
That depends - is it code for "Oh my god I have a B.A./B.Comm/B.B.A. and now employment prospects!"?
(Not that that applies to me - I don't have any degree at all. And if I don't get moving on this paper, that's not about to change.)
rickibear;
ReplyDeleteI purposely left centres out of the list since if the discussion is regarding RNH, they wouldn't be on the ice at the same time.
Add in the rumblings about Hemsky departing the scene and you would likely never see RNH out there 5X5 with any Horcoff/Gagner/Hemsky.
Vey. Tied up.
ReplyDelete