What should we expect these players to turn into? What types of players do NHL teams normally develop via their minor league system? Are they skilled men or role players? Both?
I looked at these questions in December 2008 (item is here) and thought it might be time to revisit the conclusions and see if they remain reasonable arguments.
- Men who are over 30 and come out of the minors to establish (0r re-establish) themselves are pretty much a thing of the past. This remains true despite quality performances in OKC from goalie Martin Gerber (35 years old) and defenseman Bryan Helmer (38). Along with Brad Moran (31) these players are among the most valuable Barons but are miles from regular duty in the NHL. Hell, Gerber has been insane when recalled to the show this year and yet he's toiling away in the minors (well, he's hurt right now but you get the point). This may be a function of playing for a team devoted to development, as Gerber's NHL numbers would have been enough to allow an extended stay in other NHL cities.
- Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past (say) 21 has some issues and is going to do some meandering (this is universal from 1965 through 2009). I'd say this remains true. Oilers prospects--even the first rounders--who spend extended time in the AHL are working on something. Consistency is an issue with men like Alex Plante, and despite a legion of callups most of the kids who played for OKC this past season will be right back there in October. It's a process, refining a skill set that included powerplay time and top line minutes into a role player's future.
- We shouldn't expect Rob Schremp to play more career games than Sam Gagner or Andrew Cogliano. Whatever that line in the sand is, that line sticks. As of today, Cogliano (324 NHL games) and Sam Gagner (291) are well ahead of Rob Schremp (111 games and with his 3rd NHL team). Whatever happens to Gagner or Cogliano in Edmonton, their next stop includes a major league roster spot. Hockey Jesus is running out of cities.
- No one on the 2008-09 AHL team is likely to do anything incredible like play in 1,000 NHL games. Gilbert Brule (263), Ryan Potulny (126) Schremp (111), Theo Peckham (98), Liam Reddox 96), Mathieu Roy (65), Taylor Chorney (54), Devan Dubnyk (52), Tim Sestito (46), Ryan O'Marra (20) and Colin McDonald (2) are the candidates, with a few like JDD in there too. I think it's still entirely reasonable to suggest that none of these players will have 1,000 game NHL careers.
- If you haven't established yourself as a prospect of interest by 22 you are in trouble. Exceptions are college men. We saw an excellent example of that in Slava Trukhno, who never did deliver the kind of offense implied by his junior numbers. Current Oiler farmhands who would fall into this category include Bryan Pitton and Jordan Bendfeld.
- The few college men on this list show very well. NHL teams should treat the college signing season as extremely important. The Oilers have just now started to devote time and dollars to college kids and frankly it's long overdue. The 08-09 team featured Bryan Lerg, who was sent away but is recovering his status as a prospect (at least a little) in the Penguins system. It took Colin McDonald until he was 25 to find the offensive range, but at that age he's more likely to score a big KHL contract than a ticket to the NHL. This item is something we can follow in the future, as the recent signings of Fedun, House and Tremblay allow us to track their progress. I have not included men like Petry and Chorney on this point as they were draft selections.
- A large group of players on the current team could be described in the "tweener" division. History tells us we'll have our answers on men like Schremp, Spurgeon, Roy and Reddox very soon. It also tells us we already have our answer on Colin McDonald. I think we know. Schremp could have a career as a minstrel gypsy, Reddox has a good glove man but can't hit above the Mendoza line (his Mom and I are still holding out hope) and the other two have toddled along their merry way (Roy is 27 but has played 4 NHL games this season).
- If we make a list of the minor league RFA's this summer (Brule, Schremp, Dubnyk, Trukhno, Colin McDonald, David Rohlfs, Bryan Lerg, Stephane Goulet, Bryan Young, Sebastien Bisaillon, Mathieu Roy, Tyler Spurgeon, Ryan Potulny, Carl Corazzini-I believe this list is correct--SOURCE: Oilfans) we can probably as a group pick the cuts and be fairly close. That 50 man list is going to get a trim. It certainly did: Schremp was claimed on waivers, Rohlfs caught on with Muskegon of the IHL, Goulet and Spurgeon became ECHL regulars, Bisaillon and Corazzini checked out the situation in Europe. Young signed an AHL contract with Springfield, Roy got a contract from Columbus and Ryan Potulny won NHL employment with the Oilers. The club also kept Brule, Dubnyk, McDonald (for one more year), Trukhno and Lerg. This spring, only Brule and Dubnyk remain on the Oilers 50 Man List.
- As much as we talk about men like Dan Lacouture and Brad Winchester as disappointing, they were able to find a role and survive. I think this is an important point, because AHL development is all about being able to fill a need on the big league roster. Winchester isn't going to outscore a lot of people, but he's a big body and has learned the job of role player. Is he more valuable to his team than someone like Liam Reddox? History tells us many coaches believe so, which is good news for forwards with some size like Chris Vande Velde.
- Daniel Cleary and Jason Chimera became productive players in the toughest league on the planet. THEY are the stars in this study. Remains true, and before you suggest that isn't a lot of return for all the procurement dollars, let's take a minute and think about how useful those two men would be on the current Oiler roster. We could add Kyle Brodziak to that list as well, although he wasn't a member of the 08-09 AHL squad.
- For Rob Schremp fans, there's exactly ONE pure offensive player who made it: Mike Walton. It's a really difficult transition for a guy like Schremp because there's always another candidate to take his job. He caught a huge break (imo) when Atlanta grabbed him because Craig Ramsay is an excellent teacher.
- If I'm a betting man, Theo Peckham and Gilbert Brule from the current group would be my picks to be the new Cleary and Chimera.Well I'd change my bet now. Peckham looks like a guy who is going to have a career, but Brule appears to be having a tough time with the rigors of an NHL season. On the plus side, a legit prospect has emerged in the person of Devan Dubnyk.
NHL games played 2009-11 by the 08-09 Springfield Falcons
- Gilbert Brule 117
- Rob Schremp 104
- Liam Reddox 95
- Theo Peckham 83
- Ryan Potulny 74
- Devan Dubnyk 52
- Taylor Chorney 52
- Jeff Deslauriers 48
- Tim Sestito 45
- Mathieu Roy 35
- Ryan Stone 27
- Ryan O'Marra 20
- Colin McDonald 2
- Guillaume Lefebvre 1
The farm haul up front in the form of the Harski and Omark is already impressive - but of course Omark should have been on the NHL roster to begin with. After that you have McDonald, Reddox, VDV and Omarra who could have bottom 6 potential. VDV needs another complete year in the AHL - but we could do worse than having the other 3 forwards on the roster instead of wasted space like JFJ, Fraser and Mac.
ReplyDeleteAs for the dmen you have Plante and Tuebert who both need more work and that's about it (Chorney will never amount to much).
Nothing of note in net until Roy gets there next year and he's years away from even a cup of coffee - but we also need a vet to mentor him if Gerber does not return. JDD is and always has been toast - and I think it's finally obvious to all but the most blind and stubborn who has more talent between him and Dubnyk.
I'm not all that high on VDV. He's 23 - he should have been performing much better at the AHL. You don't really worry about guys like him all that much.
ReplyDeleteLikewise, McDonald, Reddox, and Omarra are all replaceable (and then some) on the UFA market. Replaceable.
Plante is closing in on being a bust, and time for Chorney is also running out. It's a wait and see for Tuebert.
In short, there isn't much in the farm sysem to remain concerned about. The better prospects either spend no time there, or very little (Omark, Hartikainen)
I've seen on several boards some individuals comparing Omark to Schremp. For me, it's a good thing those individuals are not in any management position with the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteMan, posts like this have a Breakfast Club feel to them, don't they? Good work, glad to see some fruits from that harvest in Peckham and Dubnyk.
ReplyDeleteWell, there are comparisons to be drawn: both are YouTube sensations, both are very much offense-first players, both came (I think it's fair to say) with a bit of a sense of entitlement.
ReplyDeleteBut as my girlfriend told me during the first week of our courtship (I mention that it was the first week just to provide some context as to why I fell for her) in response to my saying that a given metaphor had broken down: "No, it hasn't - this is you willfully killing the metaphor. If metaphors were meant to be able to be taken to the xth degree of abstraction, then they wouldn't be metaphors, but facts."*
1. Linus Omark is, in some respects, like Rob Schremp.
2. Linus Omark is not Rob Schremp.
*For some of the posters here who find me tiresome, that's a lesson from the world's foremost expert on how to deal with me.
http://www.dailyheraldtribune.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3055873
ReplyDeleteArticle says the oil kings are moving to Grande Praire.
Didn't know they were forsale.
Damn that Loof Lipra - Grande Prairie's richest magnate, I hear.
ReplyDeletehttp://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/edm/edmonton-oilers
ReplyDeleteI pulled that link off the ESPN website. I'm now thinking it was an April Fools.
What's the reboot coefficient on the Clearies and Chimeras of the world before they realize their value? Is it better to develop these guys, or pick them up on the rebound?
ReplyDeleteDo the Oilers have what it takes to pick up such a player on the rebound and polish a diamond in the rough? If not, what are they still not doing?
And what did we get back for developing the guys who got away apart from a plastic bag labeled "more magic beans, for sure this time"?
Procurement is a tough business. It seems impossible for a good team to endure much shrinkage in the crop it actually has produced. Do all teams suffer this, or is it a sign of a stone not turned?
One thing I'll say is that Edmonton tends to be especially hard on young defensemen with more yips than grit. What does that caustic satisfaction cost the team in the long run?
This last point doesn't get discussed much, because it's difficult (though not impossible) to fire the fans.
I think losing teams do losing things. The Oilers are a losing team so that's a good place for teams to go when they have a need.
ReplyDeleteIt wasn't always this way. Daniel Cleary had a nice run but had struggled after signing his first long term deal (I believe three years) in a way similar to young Mr. Brule now--although they're not similar players.
Anyway, MacT found Pisani and that was the end of the line for the Carbonnear comet in EDM.
Now, the Brodziak item is a different thing imo, the Oilers flushed a guy who filled a need with little aside from Pouliot if things went sideways.
And here in Sideways Land, things ALWAYS go sideways.
I'm not all that high on VDV. He's 23 - he should have been performing much better at the AHL. You don't really worry about guys like him all that much.
ReplyDeleteI like him. He can win a faceoff, throws his weight around, and plays pretty good defence. He is at best a 3rd line C, and most likely a 4th line C, but everyone needs one.
SS,
ReplyDeleteI guess it would be a safe bet that your girlfriend would describe you as "high maintenance"?
She sounds like a rare gem, hold on to her and if she thinks you are wrong, agree with her.
Steve's a gas. For the life of me I don't understand why people can't figure him out.
ReplyDeleteImagine your Grandmother. Now, imagine Grandma used to be an English instructor for the Hitler youth.
NOW imagime your Grandmother as a mid-20's guy on the other coast with an ernormous deadline and an addiction to doing anything that keeps him from the actual work assigned to him.
I think he's hilarious. Of course I use coasters.
:-)
LT,
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
SS's comments are often the highlights of the threads.
Moreso when he is baiting at ON like he is today.
You're simultaneously too kind and too cruel.
ReplyDeleteI should note, in the interests of accuracy, that even by a generous definition my mid-20s have passed me by. And I try not to play up the grammar Nazi thing, since once you start doing that people are just waiting for you to slip up, which I do often.* I do have a bit of a pet peeve with regard to misuse of ten dollar words, since it's bad enough when people accurately cast themselves as erudite.
astainho: I'm not touching that one. (Rimshot?)
*For example, I consistently use English spacing, despite it having gone out of style with the typewriter.
SS should be doing 2 shows a night at the Tropicana-he has more entertainment value than the blue man group.
ReplyDeleteThis will rightly be perceived as ironic coming from me, but you guys need to get out more.
ReplyDeleteSteve: The kettle's ringing. :-)
ReplyDeleteThe good thing about SS's posts is that you EXPECT them to be good and they seldom disappoint. That's tough to do, like being introduced as "a really funny guy" and then having people wait around hoping you'll say something witty.
Either way, I'm sure his GF will put him in a trunk of her car and leave it parked at a Piggly Wiggly sometime in the next decade. :-)
I insisted on a hatchback. True story.*
ReplyDelete*Actually, *she* decided on the hatchback. But I'm insisting on it in hindsight.
lol. When I might my current wife* her car was newer, nicer and actually started. She should have aimed higher.
ReplyDelete*checking to see if her sister is reading. :-)
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteFPB doesn't think that "might" means what you think that it means.
ReplyDeleteI might be wrong on english again. But damn I swear i've never heard that.
ReplyDeleteMet. When I met my wife.
ReplyDeleteLT: I'm just being really unfunny to magnify SS's humor
ReplyDeleteYeah, I know. I'm playing along by being obtuse. :-)
ReplyDeleteI return the favour, doing my best to make others look insightful.
ReplyDeletePJO - yes VDV, OMarra, McD etc are very replaceable on the FA market - but at a cost. This doesn't matter now - but if the Oilers were actually decent and cap was an issue - then the millions saved by developing your own cheap bottom 6 guys can be important. For me it's nice to see some numbers from McD (goals) and OMarra (+/-) that suggest they might eventually become effective low event guys on NHL ice. Having them on the NHL roster also gives the foot-soldiers in the AHL something to shoot for as well.
ReplyDeleteLT -- check out this stat:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=1995&year_max=&season_start=1&season_end=4&age_min=18&age_max=21&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=F&handed=&c1stat=games_played&c1comp=gt&c1val=250&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=points_per_game
That's list of first four seasons of careers of players who played majority of their rookie season at 18 since the lockout.
Gagner's in pretty good territory, non?
Michael: Yeah, the kid is in some nice company there. :-) Here's hoping!
ReplyDeleteAmong the 28 who played at least thirty games during their rookie seasons, he's fourth - excellent, when you consider that players who break into the league at 18 are a pretty impressive sample.
ReplyDeleteAmong the 34 who played at least thirty games as nineteen year olds in their second season (which should be roughly the same group, though it will include some guys who played fewer than thirty games as 18 year olds, but still enough to qualify as a season for hockey-reference's purposes), he's thirteenth, so he slipped there.
Among the 31 players to play at least thirty games in their third seasons as twenty year olds, he's eleventh.
Among those playing at least thirty games in their fourth seasons as twenty-one year olds, he's tenth of 34.
Guys ahead of him in their fourth seasons: Crosby, Thornton, Friesen, Hamrlik, Gratton, Poulin, Marleau, Daigle (!), and Gaborik. Gagner's just ahead of Jordan Staal, Dainius Zubrus, Scott Hartnell, Radek Dvorak, and Ryan Smyth.
I think we can say at this point that his rookie season was an outlier, and that his true performance level is better reflected by what he's done since.
(I should have confined my analysis to forwards, but I'm too lazy to go back and do it again...even with these papers looming.)
ReplyDeleteMichael: Of course the "how tall are they" brigade would point out that Crosby is the only other guy on that list under 6'1.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=1995&year_max=&season_start=1&season_end=4&age_min=18&age_max=22&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=F&handed=&c1stat=games_played&c1comp=gt&c1val=250&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=points_per_game
ReplyDeleteHere's the same list if you include the first 4 seasons of 19 year old rookies as well (a definition that would include both Taylor Hall and MPS this year, for instance).
Not so good, but he's tracking around Bouchard in Minny and Deadmarsch. Those might be interesting comps actually.
Here's a look at 19-year-old rookie seasons since the first lockout.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=1995&year_max=&season_start=1&season_end=1&age_min=19&age_max=19&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=F&handed=&c1stat=games_played&c1comp=gt&c1val=40&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=points_per_game
Our boy Taylor Hall is 8th out of 43, with company such as Iginla and Tavares.
Paajarvi is 22nd out of 43, and is sandwiched between Kessel and Sturm.
Not bad for the two kids, I'd say.
I don't know LT , I think point #10 is key, and not to be washed away without discussion.
ReplyDeleteIf the development system is only going to churn out players like Brodziak, Cleary, Chimera, at some point it is worth asking what it costs and what the return is. There's got to be some point where you're simply better off spending the money elsewhere.
I'm not saying the Oilers are at that point now. It's true that at the time of the lockout some were of the opinion that it might make sense for EDM to cut their AHL and scouting budgets if that money could be better spent at the NHL level, but things have changed so drastically from that time that it's easy to imagine people having changed their minds since information has changed.
SS -- check out Gagner's point per game per season:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hockey-reference.com/players/g/gagnesa01.html
You'll see that this year he actually equaled the PPG rate he achieved in his rookie season: 0.62. I don't think the rookie season was an outlier. And he's still only 21.
Look at the following profile:
http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/g/gagneda01.html
His dad didn't get over 0.5 PPG until his 5th NHL season, at the age of 24 when he exploded for over 1 PPG, a mark he flirted with for the next 7 years thereafter.
Patience is the key word with Gagner. He's quietly tracking well.
PJO - yes VDV, OMarra, McD etc are very replaceable on the FA market - but at a cost .
ReplyDeleteIs this really true though? There are always bargains in the UFA market.
Guys like the Brenden Morrison (.725M), Blair Betts (.700M), Mike Comrie (.500M), Rob Neidermayer (1.250M), Eric Belanger (0.750M), Marcel Goc (.775M) mold are always available.
Every summer.
The savings from developing your own fringe players are insignificant - maybe even detrimental when you factor the above mentioned list provide value.
You'll see that this year he actually equaled the PPG rate he achieved in his rookie season: 0.62.
ReplyDeleteYeah, but he's 22 and has five years of NHL experience: equalling his 18 year old rookie season isn't exactly cause for celebration.
I'm working on a FanPost on this subject at Coppernblue - I'll post a link when it's finished.
speeds: I think we have to ask ourselves two questions in regard to the AHL players.
ReplyDelete1. Are these players readily available as needed?
2. How important is depth?
I'd argue the Manitoba Moose have contributed a lot to Vancouver's success.
SS: Are you speaking of Gagner? If so, he has 4 years experience and won't be 22 until August.
ReplyDeleteYeah, but he's 22 and has five years of NHL experience
ReplyDeleteWell, he's actually still only 21 and is finishing his 4th NHL season, but I do see what you're getting at.
Check this out:
http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1996&year_max=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=21&age_max=21&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=S&handed=&c1stat=games_played&c1comp=gt&c1val=50&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=points_per_game&order_by_asc=&offset=0
All 21 year old seasons by forwards since the first lockout. Sam current season is at #47 out of 250.
Notice the names around him that you would have expected to be much higher. Frolov, Gaborik, Iginla, Sykora, and Wolski all had the exact same PPG mark of 0.62 when they were 21. Then again, so did Daigle, but the point remains that I think we assume all star players advance at the rate of a Kane or Heatley, when many of them are flat for a few years and then begin a rise nearing their mid-20s.
I mean, just look at some of the names he's ahead of here. They run the gamut from potential HHOFers to complete busts. What matters is that he's still got the chance to break-out, but he's also got the chance to plateau. A full year next year with non-rookie flanks should see him set new career numbers.
SS: Are you speaking of Gagner? If so, he has 4 years experience and won't be 22 until August.
ReplyDeleteDepends from when you start counting.
(I know that the "rule" against ending sentences with prepositions is figmentary and the bane of good writing, but I happen to like it.)
I've posted my FanPost; as with everything worth reading, its conclusion amounts to "who the hell knows?".
ReplyDeleteSS -- liked your fanpost.
ReplyDeleteMarleau's jumping around is quite curious. Someone should check out his TOI totals and guess which lines he was playing on.
But your assertion that we have evidence that the rookie season is an outlier -- I just don't think that can be fully justified. Look at Smytty, he's just all over the map, and doesn't hit the event horizon until he's 24.
But your conclusion of who the hell knows is well-founded, and one I can agree with. Anything can happen with these kids! If he can find his niche and net 60 pts in the next couple of years, I hope he can silence some of his critics. Then again, I've got a sinking feeling he's trade bait if they take RNH...
LT:
ReplyDelete(1) Yes, these players are readily available each summer, but no, they aren't as readily available in season when injury hits if you don't happen to have them in the system already.
(2) I don't know exactly how important depth is. I can see the case for arguing it's more important to have depth the more "injury prone" some of your players are, so if that is an issue with EDM maybe it's fair to say it's more important to them than other teams.
As to how important to the Canucks the Moose are, I'm not sure. The more organizational depth the better, but Manitoba has been a pretty good AHL team for awhile, both while the Canucks have been great and when they have missed the playoffs.
Looking at that FanPost, one name stuck out to me as a possible comparison: David Legwand
ReplyDeleteHigh draft pedigree, strong OHL numbers (although he played an extra year in junior).
Put up 41 points by his second season. Other than 06/07 (27-36-63), he hasn't cracked the 50-point mark after 11 NHL seasons.
But PJO can you expect to sign several of those guys and expect to keep them for several years? No of course not - and as others have said - what about in season needs due to injury. I'm not arguing that our AHL guys are somehow diamonds in the rough - just that they are useful in a narrow sense.
ReplyDeletePJO, you can't argue with these signings as anything other than good moves for depth.
ReplyDeleteAll the players you listed are great, but not many are likely to sign with the Oil and for any sort of long term without a serious overpay.
What the Oilers are doing here is scouring other leagues for talent. Essentially free tickets that cost nothing more than cash and contracts. If they pan out they have an NHL career, fill a need for role players on the team, and are likely cheaper than FA replacements.
If they don't make the show, they can help the farm team. And you need a strong farm team for developmental purposes. The Springfield disaster highlighted that.
Win/win. Also this is what everyone's been calling for in the last few seasons instead of whale hunting all the time.
Looking at that FanPost, one name stuck out to me as a possible comparison: David Legwand
ReplyDeleteI don't know - he was significantly (not hugely, but significantly) behind Gagner in all of the 19, 20, and 21 year-old seasons. He picked up the pace at 22, but we don't yet know what Gagner will do at 22.
I think the whole point is that you sign these guys to one or two year deals and rotate them in and out as you go. That's why we'd say they are easily replaceable. I've favored having a longish-term top 6-8 and a rotating bottom 4-6 for some time now. It makes all kinds of sense in CapLand (which for me is some freakish hell of an amusement park where as soon as any ride reaches full speed you're held at gunpoint and forced to throw several of your best friends overboard).
ReplyDeleteMakes sense rotating players as you need, but there's something to be said about developing some of your own in house, stability and price wise it could have benefits.
ReplyDeleteDetroit rotates players in and out as needed, but they also have a nice set of role players they've developed in house. I wouldn't mind having our own Draper and McCarthy for a decade =). I'll also take an Abdelkaker or whatever, just cause his name is fun.
The beginning of trouble for Penner in LA?
ReplyDeleteWhen asked if he was seeing enough work ethic from Penner, coach Terry Murray told LA Kings Insider, "I was not. I'm not going to be stick-handling around it. I was not, and he knows that. That's what it's all about, to me. You're a pro athlete. The number-one thing you have to do as a player is bring work, every day."
The savings from developing your own fringe players are insignificant
ReplyDeleteTwo problems with that:
First, teams don't generally draft guys as role players. There are exceptions, like Cam Abney (thanks Kevin P), but generally teams are looking for top 6 players in the first few rounds.
Many of the "role" players PJO listed are failed top round prospects or guys limited by age, injury, or stupidity.
Its one of the advantages of drafting bigger players. If they fail to put up offensive numbers, they might be able to bring something else (faceoffs, checking, grit, energy).
Second, the Oilers can't even get the fringe players to come here. Maholtra, Neil and Boogaard all said no last season. Belanger was just spouting off about how he'd rather play in PHX than Winnipeg.
The beginning of trouble for Penner in LA?
ReplyDeleteThe 2G -4A - 6 pts in 15 games doesn't help.
Hopefully, for Penner's sake, he is not destined to undergo his early Oilers experience. Sadly, I think he will always run into conflict with his coaches.
On the other hand, maybe he thinks about coming back here when he is a FA.
We understand you Dustin, come back home!
Damn. Just passed up a free ticket to a Gord Miller-Pierre McGuire hockey pool event tonight. Would be fun to talk hockey with those guys.
ReplyDeleteThink Penner figured everything would just go his way once he was on a better team? Or did the marriage kill his hockey skills? Hah.
And here in Sideways Land, things ALWAYS go sideways.
ReplyDeleteLT: True dat. Around here, things go sideways in a boot cast.
Someone should tell Terry Murray to shut his cakehole!! You got a 25+ goal scorer for NOTHING (including your 7th or 8th best prospect) and you thought he was going to be Sid Crosby?
ReplyDeleteI'll admit to being amused by the phrase "NOTHING (including your 7th or 8th best prospect)".
ReplyDeleteBy the boxcars, Penner's playing well below his potential; can't blame a coach for complaining about that. It's also distinct from the MacTavish situation, because under MacTavish Penner was unambiguously the Oilers' best left-winger (with a proven track record of production when put on a line with their best centre and best right-winger), and he was still getting played on the third line.
The other john, you meant 7th or 8th best defensive prospect. More like the 12th to 14th best prospect in their system overall. =)
ReplyDeleteSteve
ReplyDeleteOur 7th or 8th best prospect would be Jeremy Blain? Ryan Martindale? Would you trade that person along with 20th pick in a less than stellar draft for 25+ goal scorer that is big body signed for another year?
That is the definition of NOTHING
Flipped around, we would hope that when we are a top 10 team that someone gifts us that kind of asset at the trade deadline
Dallas is currently 7 points back of LA.
ReplyDeleteLA finishes the season @ San Jose, Phoenix, @ Anaheim, Anaheim.
Dallas finishes Columbus, Colorado, @ Clorado, @ Minnesota.
It's still not a complete lock that LA makes the playoffs.
Please tell me I'm not the only one cheering against them.
Also,
ReplyDeleteThe other John: I don't think "definition" means what you think it means.
Copyright Steve Smith
Our 7th or 8th best prospect would be Jeremy Blain?
ReplyDeleteAccording to Coppernblue, it would be Hartikainen and Roy (this counts Petry as a prospect, but not Dubnyk - if you want to exclude Petry, it becomes Roy and Brendan Davidson).
Flipped around, we would hope that when we are a top 10 team that someone gifts us that kind of asset at the trade deadline
I agree with your basic point - I just think it's kind of funny to provide a list of things that "nothing" includes, since by definition (thanks, commonfan), that list would be empty.
Sorry, Hartikainen is seventh if you *don't* count Petry:
ReplyDelete1. Pitlick
2. Marincin
3. Lander
4. Hamilton
5. Plante
6. Martindale
7. Hartikainen
8. Roy
9. Davidson
10. Vande Velde
11. Motin
12. Blaine
I admit that if that ranking were done today, Hartikainen would probably pass a few of those guys (Plante, certainly).
I've been rooting against LA all along Common13. Smyth, Stoll, Greene et al be damned, I want the Oilers to get as high a 1st round pick as possible.
ReplyDeleteI think Penner's heart is still with the Oilers, as evidenced by his less than stellar play. Bless that big man's heart, doing everything he can to help the Oilers still. Maybe he'll have an atrocious 11-12 season as well and we can resign him for his bounce back season =).
Verification word: eakingl
SS: Blaine and Plante should simply switch, then make Motin and Plante switch.
ReplyDeleteJeebus. A PPG defenseman as N12 prospect.
Ain't the KP days.
Would you trade that person along with 20th pick in a less than stellar draft for 25+ goal scorer that is big body signed for another year?
ReplyDeleteOther John,
(BTW is that meant to imply that you are distinguishing yourself another person named John, or are you are connecting yourself to a bathroom?)
Penner sure would not be of much use for the Oilers this season post-deadline. He probably wouldn't get them into the playoffs next year either. So you would really just be holding onto him to sign him and hope can help in two or three years. About when the three assets might help.
The very, very early returns from LA are that he might not be the ~65 pt player we saw last year. Last year may be the outlier for him. Maybe he is just a player in the 50range, who has motivational problems, feuds with coaches, and likes donairs? Maybe he got 63 pts last year because he was THE guy, and on a better team he won't get the same quality minutes on the PP.
I like Penner and note his value as capured by Corsi, but maybe the deal isn't as bad as you think it is.
Then again, maybe my attempt to convince you something in Oilerdom is ok flies in the face of all your rants otherwise.
BTW, I have not seen anything that says that this draft is less than stellar. There is no real generational talents at the top, but the depth is said to be better than normal.
There are exceptions, like Cam Abney (thanks Kevin P)
ReplyDeleteStu Mac was it not?
Go Kings!
For any of the Van Gogh and CVV fans out there; Steve Smith, Woodguy, Magisterex and Co. had a little running quip up on Oilersnation in the comments section that gave me a good chuckle.
ReplyDeleteRead comments #70-80 or so.
http://oilersnation.com/2011/4/3/vande-velde-van-gogh-in-the-fo-circle#comments
Also I can see why Dennis dislikes Robin Brownlee so much now, the guy comes off as a complete self-important douchebag. SS make a rebuff of Brownlee's contention that the Oilers are playing their best hockey of the season (sans Hemsky, Horcoff et al.). Steve cited the Oil's 10 game losing streak.
Brownlee them responds by attacking SS for being 1 game off on the losing streak (i.e. 11 game losing streak not 10). States nothing about anything else SS has said, and just focuses on that 1 game differential. SS even makes a funny self-depricating remark that completely goes over Brownlee's head and Robin continues to attack him. The greatest irony is that the extra game on the losing streak reinforces SS point if anything. It's insane. And Robin Brownlee is supposed to be a representative of respectable MSM?
SS make a rebuff of Brownlee's contention that the Oilers are playing their best hockey of the season (sans Hemsky, Horcoff et al.).
ReplyDeleteIn fairness, that wasn't Brownlee's contention - it was another poster's, and Brownlee eventually rejected it. Brownlee just jumped in to call me out on my mistake, because he has somewhere (I cannot imagine where) gotten the idea that I'm a first class twat.
''Al: from everything I've read, you've got a damn good eye for talent and projecting what prospects might become.
ReplyDeleteI'm not so sure you need to take the edge off your opinion or gut instinct by making three different references to "small sample" sizes in one item when it comes to VandeVelde and face-offs.''
I don't think he gets it.
This shit with Brownlee is hilarious.
I guess a typo could destroy an entire purposefully tought argument right?
Jeez. Is he like that ALL the time?
Again, I think I'm getting special treatment from him because of my sweet demeanor; I suspect he's perfectly enjoyable company in most other contexts.
ReplyDeleteBrownlee just jumped in to call me out on my mistake, because he has somewhere (I cannot imagine where) gotten the idea that I'm a first class twat.
ReplyDeleteIf it helps Steve, I don't think you are a first class twat.
BTW, are you sure you know what twat means? I mean, I don't think its possible...
And Robin Brownlee is supposed to be a representative of respectable MSM?
If he was, I would think he would still have a job and not be messing around with the likes of us.
Just shared a escalator ride with Tambo. He had a glazed helf smile on his face the whole time.
ReplyDeleteSo I guess it's not just for the cameras.
BTW, are you sure you know what twat means? I mean, I don't think its possible...
ReplyDeleteMy understanding is that it's a vulgar synonym for a portion of the reproductive system, and often used as pejorative for "unpleasant person" (to the extent that that is not itself sufficiently pejorative).
Of course, you may not think that it means what I think that it means.
That should have read "...a portion of the female reproductive system...".
ReplyDeleteSorry Ducey someone posted here as John, hence the "Other". BTW are you named after a ballpark?
ReplyDeletePenner is a good hockey player. It really is that simple. He is also of higher value to a playoff team than a non playoff team because the playoffs are a war and big bodies have higher value at that time of year.
Hence he should have a higher value to a team like LA with playoff aspirations (pre injuries) than he has to the Oil.
Steve
The reason I say NOTHING is because LA's 7-8th best prospect may not play in the NHL and if this is a weak NHL draft like 2007 there is a good chance that whoever is picked at 20th does not play 100 games in the NHL. Course we did get the conditional pick, thank God!
If you remove the guys who are no longer prospects..... that leaves you Roy, Martindale, CVDV, Plante, Blain.... still nothing for a 25+ goal scorer!! Not sure Plante would be in one of 5 best skaters on good beer league team
In fairness Steve you were shooting for 2nd, 3rd, 4th class twat....right :-))
ReplyDeleteThe world needs more art history jokes and commentary on a hockey blog.
ReplyDeleteI don't think LT's site likes my OpenID. Can't post with it whatsoever.
If you remove the guys who are no longer prospects
ReplyDelete...and inflate Penner's value, you should come up with your conclusion.
The reason I say NOTHING is because LA's 7-8th best prospect may not play in the NHL and if this is a weak NHL draft like 2007 there is a good chance that whoever is picked at 20th does not play 100 games in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteBear in mind that on this team, Ryan O'Marra plays in the NHL.
If you remove the guys who are no longer prospects..... that leaves you Roy, Martindale, CVDV, Plante, Blain....
I may be misunderstanding you, but are you suggesting that some of the twelve guys I listed above are no longer prospects? Because that would be about the narrowest definition of "prospect" I've ever seen.
Incidentally, just now an old admirer of mine currently attending Dalhousie Law School sent me a Facebook message reading "I was bored in CivPro and decided to read OilersNation. I'm now pissing myself laughing at the comments section. I wanted to reassure the guy who accused you of acting like a smarmy-know-it-all that it was not an act, but then that would require me to get in to the quicksand and leave my comfortable place on the shore." He later added "LT's description of you is spot on.", so well done, LT.
I find all this talk of 1st class twat oddly pleasant.
ReplyDeleteI didn't know that was Brownlee's objection, but that makes him look even more the 'contrarian' fool. You mean he's jumping on you for arguing something he didn't even originate, and may actually agree with?
He has no personal stake or pride associated with the debate but the crux of his ire, actually the entire basis of his contention is the fact that you were 1 game off on your mentioning of a 10 game losing streak, a fact that oddly enough reinforces your point?
How petty, self-important, and vindictive does a person have to be to go to those lengths? Brownlee's a world class something all right. Just wow.
Magisterex, I prefer political history myself, but the art history was quite enjoyable.
Do not think Petry and Harkinnnnnnnnnn are prospects anymore. Petry 3rd best D man we currently dress and the Finn is a player
ReplyDeleteBalance of the 12.......Meh!! Could swap Teubert for those guys interchangeably and might not get 50 NHL games out of any of them
O'Marra and Jacques remain prospects here. not sure why but they do
Do not think Petry and Harkinnnnnnnnnn are prospects anymore. Petry 3rd best D man we currently dress and the Finn is a player
ReplyDeleteWell, Petry wasn't on the list. Hartikeinen looks good, but a guy who's played a single digit number of NHL games is still a prospect in my books.
I prefer political history myself, but the art history was quite enjoyable.
If it was political history, my contributions would have been less lame.
ReplyDeleteI don't think he gets it.
This shit with Brownlee is hilarious.
I guess a typo could destroy an entire purposefully tought argument right?
Jeez. Is he like that ALL the time?
I'm thinking he wanted LT to make some bold predictions (based on small sample sizes) and then talk about VV shoving it up some back sides.
Sorry Ducey someone posted here as John, hence the "Other". BTW are you named after a ballpark?
ReplyDeleteYeah, started using it on a Jays website (Battersbox -its a good site) as a way to show I was from EDM.
Anyone else worried the Flames might beat CHI? CHI plays MON, STL and DET twice. They look like they are running on fumes.
Just tried the Oiler's website draft simulator, gave me 3 Oiler wins out of 10 the first time, 4 out of 10 the 2nd time. What shocked me is Calgary came up once in the 2nd batch of 10 I did. If that happens for real, well, I don't know what I would do....
ReplyDeleteJust tried the Oiler's website draft simulator, gave me 3 Oiler wins out of 10 the first time, 4 out of 10 the 2nd time. What shocked me is Calgary came up once in the 2nd batch of 10 I did. If that happens for real, well, I don't know what I would do....
ReplyDeleteIs that seven out of twenty Oilers lottery wins, or seven out of twenty Oilers first overall picks? The Oilers stand a chance of picking first overall even if they don't win the lottery, since, as I understand it, no team can move up more than five places. This would mean that the Oilers would pick first overall if the lottery was won by any team outside of the league's five worst.
I actually just read that it's only 4 spots a team can jump up, so nothing too bad about a Flames lottery win.
ReplyDeleteWe'd still get the top pick.
OK, right I forgot the 4 spot jump limit. Breathing easier here. :-)
ReplyDeleteMarincin has signed an ATO contract with the Barons.
ReplyDeleteNothing better than first class twat.
ReplyDeleteMy two experiences emailing Gregor and Brownlee both ended the same way, with them reading the whole email but only seeming to listen to half of it, for Brownlee to then misrepresent my position and proceed to call me, uh, intellectually challenged for "my" viewpoint. The guy loves attack mode, even if (as I suspect) it's just a schtick.
ReplyDeleteIn light of the discussion on Gagner, here's an interesting article on Voracek and Brassard:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bluejacketsxtra.com/live/content/sports/stories/2011/04/03/its-not-too-late-for-voracek-and-brassard.html?sid=101
Love first class twat. Also second class, third class, steerage.
ReplyDeleteLook at LT's list, he drops them after fifty games I think. So from his last list Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi, Peckham, Dubnyk and I think Omark and maybe Petry? Obviously LT will make that call.
Point is the remaining list has Marcinin, Hamilton, Pitlick, Lander, Hartikainen (he is lower but has moved up I think ;) ) and then you're looking at guys like Chorney, Davidson and so on.
If in some alternate universe the Oilers are a contender in a few years do you trade one of those guys for two playoffs of Dustin Penner. I would say so.
steerage.
ReplyDeleteDepending on your list, this can come first.
Marc that is an interesting article. Funny how people expect a 21 & 23 year old to be dominant 1st line point power game players.
ReplyDeleteIf they're stupid enough to give up on them this soon they deserve to be mired in mediocrity.
BDHS, I was right with you up till the end there. I'd be careful of those steerage twats; you don't know where they've been, and you don't know what sort of nasty lingering things you might pick up from them.
Interesting reading the 2004 comments about the Sedins needing to be tougher.
ReplyDeleteHave any players been served as well as them by the post-lockout rule changes?
Things still tend to revert a little in the playoffs, so it'll be interesting to see how they perform this year with all the expectations.
RB's not alone as a guy who had a tough upbringing and never really got over it and it's resulted in a chip on his shoulder that's always ever present.
ReplyDeleteShortly after he showed up over at ON and preceded with his bully boy act I emailed the Wayne Gretz fellow after a couple of early bannings or post deletions and I asked him if he thought it was worth it to have a guy like RB on the awning. I pretty much said the same thing in terms of LT aligning himself with them a few months ago as well. But both times I believe I said that I hoped it was profitable and I still feel that way.
Now, in the interest of full disclosure, years ago and far away I wasn't the most kind of Brownlee's writing and/or opinions and he'd been aware of it and it's coloured his opinion of me and he does have more of a right to be a jerk-off to me than to SS.
But, only to a point.
RB posts over there because he wants the feedback from the comments section or at the very least he must understand that's part of the new media reality. But he wants it both ways where he gets the comments but you must agree with him or else you're stupid. And mostly you're stupid because you don't have access to the dressing room.
Of course the other side is what I mostly said about RB was he kissed Lowe's ass and was afraid to call it down the middle on him. To be fair that's a point that's sticky with seemingly everyone in Edm because even LT is prone to get half-mad at me when I don't suffer his or anyone's foolishness of blind faith gladly:)
I do think RB has mellowed a bit over the last year or so. He used to rage at me at least once a week, but now calling me "smart guy" is about as aggressive as he's been towards me in months.
ReplyDeleteOilers site updates...
ReplyDeleteRenney confirmed that forward Colin Fraser will not play. After missing the past two games with an undisclosed injury, the 26-year-old centerman did not practice this morning and had an MRI instead.
Included among the many Oilers injuries this season is Shawn Horcoff's fractured ankle. The captain has missed seven games so far and is uncertain if he will make a full recovery before Sunday's season closer.
"We pushed it trying to get it to respond and get back as soon as possible, and the MRI showed there was a little more damage than the Xray showed, so it pushed the timetable back obviously more than we thought it was going to be initially," he explained.
"I skated today and I skated a couple days ago. It's still a little bit sore just because of the area of the break, it's right on the ankle bone, it's tough getting pressure off that. But there's still six days here. I'm doing my best."
Oh, and Smid...
ReplyDelete"It's sore, it's tender. He went out before us and had a little skate and said it felt pretty good, so I fully expect he'll play," head coach Tom Renney explained.
If all Brownlee wants is comments that agree with him and laud his point of view, then he's not really looking for feedback or conversation.
ReplyDeleteHe just wants a bunch of sheep or sycophants lapping up his leavings and calling it sunshine.if that's true I can't even begin to fathom the depths of his ego and hubris.
I always thought Dennis was a bit too extreme in his opinions of RB, but after seeing repeated examples of his high handed bullying tactics, and default I can shout louder than you and delete your arguments I can see why some are so antagonistic towards him.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe issue and problem with trading away Penner is not if the picks/prospects have value. The issue is what is the impact to the NHL team. They did not get a roster player back and thus impacted the team negatively on the ice.
ReplyDeleteThe advanced stats show the value of Penner. But in addition, with the purges of players the last two seasons, this team is severely lacking experienced NHL players in the forward position. How do you protect the kids when you have no veteran presence to do so ?
NHL-GP Player
684 Horcoff
490 Hemsky
420 Penner
324 Cogliano
291 Gagner
263 Brule
224 Fraser
172 Jones
156 JFJ
Add in the injuries to vets and this is a huge issue. The team lacks veteran experience and depth at the forward position. You are asking players with less than 3 full NHL seasons (246 games) to play against veteran teams.
This is a huge failure by Oiler management. How do you expect kids to compete ? Do you expect all these kids on entry level contracts to overperform and outperform NHL veterans on a daily basis ?
What you get is a 30th place team.
@Ducey,
ReplyDeleteTake back that Chicago comment right now damnit !!!! You are not allowed to speak such horrible thoughts ... although I have to admit, it scares me more and more every time Chicago loses ... shudders as I type.