One of the things that drives me nuts is people who credit the wrong people for writing those wonderful songs. Women like Donna Farar, guys like Billy Jo Shaver. Shaver might be my favorite all-time songwriter. Anyone who could live his life and write You Asked Me To has a gift and a curse.
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Giving credit. I think that will someday be an item of discussion for Oiler fans in regard to this organization's scouting staff. How much credit does Stu MacGregor get? What about Steve Tambellini? Kevin Lowe? Bob Brown? Bill Dandy? Mike Peluso? Frank Musil? Kevin Prendergast? Kenta Nilsson? Lorne Davis?
I give credit to Stu MacGregor for the last three drafts because he's been the chief scout since we before the 2008 entry draft. However, Teemu Hartikainein was apparently a favorite of Prendergast as the club tracked him through the 07-08 season.
What about Steve Tambellini? There were howls of derision about his face time on the Oil Change draft edition. Some posters here implied MacGregor was forced into the Hall decision and didn't seem to be convincing when announcing the choice to the scouting staff during the show.
So, what say you? Who should be given credit or take the blame for the Oilers drafting over the last few years? Do we credit MBS for the Hall choice but nick him for Abney? Or do we recognize that perhaps the Abney selection was an organizational decision to draft for need and that the Hall decision was the result of long hours of discussion by a group of men paid to have strong opinions?
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Nation Radio hits the airwaves again today at Noon. Among scheduled guests are Todd Nelson of the OKC Barons; Ian Walker of the Vancouver Sun; Scott Cullen of tsn and your emails to nationradio@theteam1260.com
I hope you can listen in.
I think it was JFK who said "Success has a thousand fathers. Failure is one lonely bastard."
ReplyDeleteThe best part of hockey culture is that just about everyone goes by the "We win as a team, we lose as a team" approach. I will go with the belief that these guys are all learning as they go, and collectively getting better.
is it possible to drop by and say hi to the nation radio team at the pint?
ReplyDeleteSumOil: Of course you can! Make sure to say hello!
ReplyDeleteSome posters here implied MacGregor was forced into the Hall decision and didn't seem to be convincing when announcing the choice to the scouting staff during the show.
ReplyDeleteI was one of those. Still think that v3.0 had the final say.
When assigning accolades and blame I think that we have to assign it to the whole group.
It appears that MBS has free reign on picks (except for 1st over all get heavy management input), but he is still a part of an organization.
Any score that MBS gets also has to be attributed to his direct report, v3.0. V3.0's full score includes all aspects of the hockey side of the organization (i.e.development, good score; professional acquisitions, bad score)
So if we give MBS an overall 8/10, that 8/10 is a part of Tambellini's overall score.
We are not in the room listening to the discussions and we cannot positively attribute decisions to any one person.
I'd break down Tambellini's score into 4 parts:
1) Coaching staff
2) Professional procurement
3) Amateur Procurement
4) Player Development
Off the cuff I'd score:
1) 6/10 (I like Renney, but special teams anyone?)
2) 2/10 JFJ, Fraser, Jones, Brule etc.
3) 8/10 Hitting some long balls with big misses in good spots (Abney, Hesketh were drafted way too early)
4) 9/10 Every report seem to be glowing from the kids in the system.
Hmmmmm, v3.0 seems to be doing well on the Amateur and Development side, but no some much on the pro side. Perhaps he's better suited to manage a National program or something.
Something that would fall under Pro Procurement, or might be its own category is "asset management"
ReplyDeleteIts probably a section of its own.
It would encompass: contract value, length etc. as well as decisions on personnel (i.e. trading Penner with no NHL player coming the other way)
Basically he's be scored on long term decisions on players (why it kinda overlaps with Pro Procurement) and contract value.
I think it was JFK who said "Success has a thousand fathers. Failure is one lonely bastard."
ReplyDelete@Halfwise: Whoever said that was more than half wise. That's a great quote and oh so true.
I sat with a picket jammed up my ass on the Taylor/Tyler debate all last year, determined not to take sides so I wouldn't be disappointed if the club went the other way. Then I saw Oil Change the night before the draft, and when I was done watching it I was a) convinced we would take Hall and b) convinced it was the right choice. What convinced me on the first count was the look on Stu's face when Hall talked about having to go to the tough areas, and the second was probably reflected in the look on my own face when I heard that. Clearly Hall impressed all of the brass but I have zero doubt, none, that MBS bought in to Hall being the one and made his recommendation accordingly.
@Woodguy: Any discussion of Tambellini's procurement record must include the name Khabibulin. It's right there on Page One, Section I.i.1(a) of the Oilogosphere Manual.
ReplyDeleteSurely that boat anchor can nolast two MORE years?
Geez WG
ReplyDelete25/40 ........ Those are superb marks! Now either you are an easy marker or the future is very very bright indeed.
I agree with you that managing your cap, contracts etc is a 5th category
I would mark it slightly differently:
1) 5/10 ......... Cannot figure what they are trying to do on ST
2) agreed ...absysmal...2/10
3) the one strength of the organization so far 8/10
4) have not seen the systemic development many here refer to. The fact that your talent says good things about the people working with them should, in a sane business, be the norm. Ie how can I help you reach your full potential which is greatly to my benefit. If argument is it's way better than it used to be: Agreed. 4/10
Fifth category: contract management .......1/10 absolutely ATROCIOUS! Millhouse had Boomer on from team 960 in Calgary last nite. Boomer gave kudos to Poile and Trots for consistently doing more with limited funds.....4 of the above categories. Millhouse with his head up someones...... Said they would not be allowed to do that in Canadian market.We have higher expectations.
I almost vomited! Not sure which Canadian team millhouse was thinking of but Nashville gets more out of their $40m payroll than we do spending $50+m
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteAgreed that the lead weight contract and play of MVP is #1 with a bullet.
Toj,
I'm a university grad, anything under 65% is a fail. :)
I think it would be highly unusual for any GM to leave the first overall pick just to his scouts.
ReplyDeleteTambo appears to spend a decent amount of time scouting himself. I recall he watched the Mem Cup and was recently in Sweden.
Some dates:
MacGregor named head scout October 2007
Tambo became the GM on July 31, 2008
Prendergast fired April 2010.
To me, its no coincidence that the Abney, Hesketh, Bigos picks came while Prendergast was assistant GM, that he was fired thereafter, and that the 2010 draft was superb.
Reach picks and just plain poor drafts are a signature of the Predergast era and they continued until his release.
So, what say you? Who should be given credit or take the blame for the Oilers drafting over the last few years? Do we credit MBS for the Hall choice but nick him for Abney?
ReplyDeleteBoth. Humans all have blindspots regardless of how hard they work or how much ability they have. I think MBS has a penchant for raw talent with potential, based on discussions around here about his drafts and the prospects themselves. This seems to be backed up by guys like Kellen Jones, Abney, Hesketh, Bigos, Czerwonka and Davidson. Likely he won't have as good a year picking as he had the last two, and some people will howl for his head. But, we should distribute credit and blame to the same people (though as Halfwise pointed out very well, it never happens that way).
That's why I appreciate WG's nuanced view on v3.0, despite my own less than high view of him. The mess that could have been OKC but this year turned out to be an organisational strength has got to be credited where due.
eyeberme - what most people use to judge Jordan Eberle's quality
To me it's no surprise that Ducey picked the guy that was fired as the scapegoat.
ReplyDeleteIt's still too early to give credit or blame yet IMO.
I'm kind of afraid of how high everyone has been on Hartikainen. He showed well in the twelve games he received but I'd hesitate on giving him the keys to the Porsche just yet. It's still early.
ReplyDeleteI always give way more credit to singers that write their own songs as well. Sometimes I think the bias ruins some pretty good songs for me. Music is about telling stories and if you're singing someone else's story it seems a bit insincere to me.
Hey for those like me who only have a radio in their cars, you can listen to radio online for free at tunein.com. There's also a handy iphone app, so you can catch the Nation radio with your iphone too.
ReplyDeleteI blame/give credit to Katz. Isn't that how it works around here?
ReplyDeleteAnyone catch Kyle Woodlief (from Redline report) on the team 1260 yesterday?
ReplyDeleteHe mentioned that Redline has Landeskog ranked #1 because he's the most NHL ready prospect, though his ceiling is probably lower than RNH.
He also mentioned that Couturier dropped because he plateaued this season while other players continued to improve. Also noted his late birthday compared to the others... Off the cuff, he thought Couturier could be a Jordan Staal with more offense. That doesn't sounds so bad.
Oddly, I think he made the comp between Ryan Nugent Hopkins and Kyle Turris.
That's a little scary sounding to me though it was based on his draft size somewhat.
Would you rather Jordan Staal with offense or Kyle Turris 2.0? :p
Thinking in terms of the Oilers roster, obviously RNH likely wouldn't play in the NHL next year. going forward though, I'm not sure that Hall/RNH/Eberle would be a good line during the playoffs given the lack of size. Wouldn't Hall and Eberle benefit from a center with some size?
ReplyDeleteEven if Eberle's on another line, you'd probably want a Rick Nash type player on a line with RNH if he pans out.
RiversQ said... To me it's no surprise that Ducey picked the guy that was fired as the scapegoat.
ReplyDeleteThis comment is even less surprising.
Good assessment Woodguy, but wondering if your mark for coaching factors in the ridiculously poor choice of Pat Quinn to coach the team in 09-10?
ReplyDeleteI liked the Renney hire from the start and although there are the some concerns that have been well documented here (special teams, line matching), I think they've got the right guy for this team right now.
Given where the team was when he hires Quinn though was inexcusable. Apparently he hadn't received clarity yet.
Jay
ReplyDeleteI think the best way to go if they draft RNH is to split up the talent and play a semi skilled grinder on each line. So for example play RNH with Eberle and second tier LW UFA signing Ryan Malone/Glencross type. Maybe even Curtis Hamilton or Hartikainen could develop into that role. Then Gagner with Hall and perhaps Pitlick at RW or a similar UFA second tier grinder who can score 20. Then the Swedes. By then Horcoff will be down the depth chart and Hemsky likely traded, hopefully for a first pairing dman.
Hey LT,
ReplyDeleteAfter playing 74 games with the Bruins in the regular season, Seguin hasn't suited up in the playoffs. I think I understand why (inexperience, good depth on bottom 6). Two questions, barring an injury, do you think we'll see him play his first post-season game? And hypothetically, if the Oilers had drafted Seguin, and the Bruins Hall, do you see Hall watching from the press box like Seguin is doing this April?
Good assessment Woodguy, but wondering if your mark for coaching factors in the ridiculously poor choice of Pat Quinn to coach the team in 09-10?
ReplyDeleteRG,
Forgot about that. That was more of a v1.0 move than the post-clarity v.30, but its still part of his body of work.
I think it would be highly unusual for any GM to leave the first overall pick just to his scouts.
Definitely. No one was making a value judgment on it, but we are trying to assign roses and raspberries and who gets credit/blame for what.
Seems to me the elephant in the room and the one name un-named by LT is Katz.
ReplyDeleteNot that I think he has much impact on scouting, but if we are extending this evauation beyond that boundary, I think he should be part of the conversation.
ReplyDeleteI blame/give credit to Katz. Isn't that how it works around here?
ReplyDeleteI blame LaForge.
Imposter!
ReplyDelete@WG
ReplyDeleteGood stuff, but how do you weigh it?
Also, where would you fit in cap management, asset management and good will?
Because that would be another 3 area's of weakness for Tambo.
I blame the voices in LaForge's head.
ReplyDeletePDO,
ReplyDeleteIn my second post I brought that stuff up as a 5th category.
As for weighting, that's a great question.
I'm on my way to a poker tournament so I don't have time to post on it, but I'm sure the bright minds around here can hash something out that's close to the truth.
Just a quick thought at the weightings..
ReplyDeleteI think category 5 (contract/cap management) should probably be weighted the heaviset.
Shitty management in this area can trump the other areas. See the dismantling of CHI last summer due to cap concerns.
I think it was Tyler who first said that being an NHL GM in a cap word is an efficiency contest, and he is dead on right in that thought.
WG:
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
The three things that killed Chicago (and reports of their demise are heavily exaggerated judging by their goal differential in that division) the Campbell contract (and do they win it all without him? Despite being overpaid, he was a central piece), the qualify offer catastrophe, and rushing Kane to the NHL and losing a year of his ELC - they could have saved themselves over $3,000,000 against the cap this year by keeping Kane in the OHL for a year - that's a Dustin Byufeglin.
THN Draft Issue is out, here is their Top 30, based on a poll of scouts (courtesy of Luedeke's B2011DW):
ReplyDelete1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C
2. Adam Larsson, D
3. Gabriel Landeskog, LW
4. Sean Couturier, C
5. Jonathan Huberdeau, LW
6. Ryan Strome, C
7. Ryan Murphy, D
8. Sven Bartschi, RW
9. Zack Phillips, RW
10. Dougie Hamilton, D
11. Mika Zibanejad, C
12. Duncan Siemens, D
13. Alexander Khokhlachev, C
14. Brandon Saad, RW
15. Joel Armia, LW
16. Mark McNeill, C
17. Jamie Oleksiak, D
18. Nathan Beaulieu, D
19. Nicklas Jensen, LW
20. Tyler Biggs, RW
21. Matt Puempel, RW
22. Jonas Brodin, D
23. David Musil, D
24. Scott Mayfield, D
25. Rickard Rakell, RW
26. Mario Lucia, RW
27. John Gibson , G
28. Tomas Jurco, LW
29. Christopher Gibson, G
30. Dmitri Jaskin, RW
Some strange things going on there at the back end of the Top 10, and this is the first inclusion of C. Gibson that I have seen.
Isn't Dougie Hamilton a consensus top 5 pick?
ReplyDelete@ Halfwise
ReplyDeleteI think it was Tuco that said, "You're the son of a thousand fathers, all bastards like you."
Ha, I love that movie.
Note: I'm not saying you're a bastard, they're just humorously similar quotes.
Krejci scores.
PDO. I thought top 8 at least. I can't see Murphy going before him. Despite Murphy's talent, he is still a riskier pick, and I can see him pulling a Fowler.
ReplyDeleteand rushing Kane to the NHL and losing a year of his ELC - they could have saved themselves over $3,000,000 against the cap this year by keeping Kane in the OHL for a year
ReplyDeleteBut maybe without the at-bats in his rookie season, Kane isn't as effective and the Blackhawks don't win the cup.
Establishing a core, making them feel wanted, and developing around it is in my opinion, far more important than a short-sighted move of sending a guy like Taylor Hall to juniors. Teams like Vancouver, San Jose, Philadelphia, Boston , etc have shown having outperforming ELC's are not the only ways to build a contending team.
have shown having outperforming ELC's are not the only ways to build a contending team.
ReplyDeleteAnd in the other corner we have Detroit and Nashville.
I'll be shocked if Mark Scheifele drops out of the top 20, let alone the first round.
ReplyDeleteSaad, Biggs, Jensen. Them future busts.
ReplyDeleteSaad, Biggs, Jensen. Them future busts.
ReplyDeleteI understand Saad and Biggs but why Jensen? He is 6'3" and got a PPG in his first year in the OHL after playing in Denmark.
I've never even heard of him, but if he has skills he might be a good bet to develop a lot more.
Anyway, the Oilers will likely go D or C and he is a winger.
I'd be happy if they were able to snag Beaulieau with the #19.
Great show again LT. You definately have a radio voice.
ReplyDeleteI thought Joe Morrow had entrenched himself in the top 30. He'd be a great pick at 31 IMO.
Oh and if anyone wants. Big time advantage if you sign up now in the OTR/Druid playoff pool.
LT: so what you're saying is while Shaver didn't fall of the turnip truck, the cantaloupe truck is another matter altogether?
ReplyDeleteEberle on fire early for Team Canada at the Worlds. A goal and a ridiculous attempt that almost got him another one.
ReplyDeleteDucey: He's slightly below. I mean, he's not going to be a total bust, but it seems euros coming over here get a push even more than CHL prospects. Rarely do players under PPG beat theyr best junior season (1st round).
ReplyDeleteHe's probably going to be a player, but i'd be surprised for more than N2 center.
Dallas grabs Muller as per RDS.
ReplyDeleteGuess who's going to have killer special units?
And talking about credit...
ReplyDeleteHow much credit should Roloson get for the 06 cup run?
Cause he's standing on his head again....
pboy.... Bet you a beer Eberle scores another.
ReplyDelete;o
Hughson sounds deflated :-)
ReplyDeleteThat Blum kid has looked great for Nashville.That franchise just keeps churning out the D.
ReplyDeleteThat was worth sitting through just to see Weber fill in Burrows.
ReplyDeleteChoksey pulls through again lol
ReplyDeleteHNIC has now turned into Hughson's on-air begging that the Sedins start getting it going.
ReplyDeleteEvery goddamn shift we get an update of how they're coming along and if it was good or not.
And Simpson's trailing along, too.
I dunno, maybe I'm in the minority here - and I understand I usually am;) - but does it matter that much that Any canadian team wins the Cup? I know they want the ratings but every year CBC trumpets and fetes the remaining Can teams to the point where I can no longer stand it.
Yeah I cheered for Ott back in '07 but more because they were always a quiet team and I hated their opposition.
Speaking of Eberle, did anyone read his quote from yesterday about how teams need a mix of older and younger guys?
Speaking of Eberle, did anyone read his quote from yesterday about how teams need a mix of older and younger guys?
ReplyDeleteLink please?