Hemsky's contract runs out in 2012 summer. His trade value is low because of the injuries and the organization has to be very careful with all contracts that extend beyond Taylor Hall's entry level deal.
It's a difficult situation and one of the major items on the Edmonton Oilers agenda this summer.
ALES HEMSKY 10-11
- 5x5 points per 60: 2.88 (1st among regular forwards)
- 5x4 points per 60: 3.47 (5th among regular forwards)
- Qual Comp: 6th toughest among regular forwards
- Qual Team: 9th best teammates among regular forwards
- Corsi Rel: 3.7 (6th best among regular forwards)
- Zone Start: 53.9% (easiest among regular forwards)
- Zone Finish: 52.5% (3rd best among regular forwards)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 100/14.0% (3rd among F's>100 shots)
- Boxcars: 47gp, 14-28-42 (led the team in assists)
- Plus Minus: +3 on a team that was -52.
- What do these numbers tell us? Hemsky is a wonderful player. Had he remained healthy for the entire season #83 would have topped 70 points. Ales Hemsky's 5x5/60 (2.88) was third best in the entire NHL this season among regular forwards (trailing Crosby and Daniel Sedin).
- How can these numbers be better? Two areas: health and the powerplay. I think we're at a point where Hemsky's health is a real concern. It impacts in a lot of ways: should the Oilers sign him long term? If they deal him in the summer, is his trade value enough? will it be better at the deadline? I don't envy the Oilers organization the decision, because Ales Hemsky could easily make them look silly. As for the powerplay, many believe Hemsky might be the problem. Everything runs through 83 with the man advantage, and critics believe that hampers the effective of the 5 on 4. I don't buy it--Hemsky SHOULD be the quarterback of a powerplay--but have to admit the result this season were very poor. I miss MacT for many reasons, never thought it would be because of the powerplay.
- He played easy minutes. Why? I don't think they were easy because of poor line matching by the Oilers. And he flourished at even strength, third best 5x5/60 in the entire league. Hemsky played most often with Gagner and Penner (18.73%) or Horcoff and Penner (18.5%) so opposition teams with a mind to could have placed solid opposition out against two lines. I don't think Renney line matched much, as it looked like he was losing that battle often even in home games.
- Is the trade talk serious? Last year at the draft Darren Dreger reported it from the draft floor and it was common knowledge he was in play at the deadline. If it isn't serious then the Oilers have a funny way of showing it.
- Would you trade him? Hell no. I wouldn't have traded Dustin Penner either. Look, the Oilers badly need NHL players. What we're all basically doing right now is waiting for these kids to figure out how to hit a curveball. Playing in the NHL is difficult even if you've flown a bunch of sorties, so expecting Hall and the kids to dominate at a young age is unfair. Ales Hemsky should be signed this summer to a long term deal. He can serve as mentor to all of these gifted kids.
- How should they handle him this season? I'd hope that the Oilers would work hard on finding a legit replacement for Penner on that Gagner-Hemsky line. In-house options include MPS and Hartikainen but my hope is that they hold back the kids a little with a mid-level acquisition with NHL experience and an idea about how to play. MacArthur or Upshall, someone like that. Nothing earth shattering, just pushing back the depth chart so it might be Hall-MacArthur-MPS-Hartikainen-Reddox.
- What about playing with Hall? If they move Hall to center it might make sense to have a veteran skill player on his wing. I don't know how much chemistry the two have but if Hall is in the middle that could change the dynamic anyway. It's worth a shot, especially if Hemsky signs long term and is part of the new world order.
- Do you think he stays? No. I think he's gone.
- What's the best thing about Ales Hemsky? He's worth the price of admission. I'm going to miss him.
- He never did emerge though, did he? I think he's a wonderful player, have no idea why anyone is waiting for him to emerge. Tough bugger, astonishing talent. He's a beauty.
By The Numbers
•06-07 5x5 per 60m: 2.09
•07-08 5x5 per 60m: 2.36
•08-09 5x5 per 60m: 2.08
•09-10 5x5 per 60m: 2.85
•10-11 5x5 per 60m: 2.88
By The Numbers
•06-07 5x4 per 60m: 5.45
•07-08 5x4 per 60m: 5.93
•08-09 5x4 per 60m: 5.00
•09-10 5x4 per 60m: 4.71
•10-11 5x4 per 60m: 3.47
Prediction for 2010-11: 60gp, 18-48-66 (1.10 per game)
Actual: 47gp, 14-28-42 (.894 per game)
Wonderful talent obscured by injury
Ever get the sense that Hemsky could be so much more if he could just find a coach that could get inside his head, and convince him to actually use his skills more dynamically on the powerplay? I mean, that 5x5 stat is absurd. But he stops skating on the powerplay. If he attacked the net with the same aggressiveness 5x4 that he did 5x5 he might actually be in discussion for a scoring championship. Well, in a year like this where Ovechkin is a little off and Crosby is injured, anyway.
ReplyDeleteIf a five million dollar contract could magically guarantee his health, Hemsky might help produce a championship. I wish they had just kept both veteran wingers.
Well there's something off on the PP even compared to the MacT years. The PP was just gone this year, absolutely Old Yeller.
ReplyDeleteYou know LT, since i have been reading your posts, its always been hemsky who has teased you and got you excited. I remember that almost always you have had him as a more than a p/g player in your reasonable expectations and he has never lived upto it.
ReplyDeleteI am not calling you out, but saying that Hemsky has so much skill and promise that we still keep hoping he will break out of sorts
I think the problem is that this team has never had elite level powerplay skaters, or at least, not very many of them at once. They did reasonably well in 2006, but that squad featured Pronger, Smyth, Stoll and Hemsky... there was a fair breadth of talent, and it wasn't all the same sort either. Add in a few names like Spacek and Samsonov towards the end of the year, and they had some mojo. What was their percentage in the playoffs? I seem to remember them having some definite success in the second season.
ReplyDeleteI think Hemsky should watch Omark and take notes. Same sort of hands, more mobile, and distributes good passes when the perfect ones aren't open.
I think you have to keep Hemsky, play him on a line with Hall, and let him rack up points, and hope he stays healthy. Either a season passing the puck to Hall convinces him to stick around long-term, or pads his stats to being a potent deadline day free agent. Either way, unless a team is really high on him at the draft, moving him now doesn't seem the right move.
PD:
ReplyDeleteCould the problem lie in his stationary state on the PP?
He's at his silly best when he's attacking with speed, yes? When is a powerplay about speed? I think that's where the problem lies.
Hemsky is a lesser player without his greatest weapon.
In essence, they need a Stamkos-esque explosion of Hall to make sure Hemsky wants to stay or is a hot commodity at the deadline.
ReplyDeleteSumOil: I'd say finishing 3rd in 5x5/60 on a team that can't score for love nor money is an outstanding year.
ReplyDeleteMy predictions have always been aggressive but I think he's very valuable even at .894 per game.
But you're right, he hasn't been over a point per game in his career.
Dorito: I think the problem is that he doesn't change the angles. He lets NHL quality penalty killers plenty of time to cut off every little hole with their sticks. You don't attack with speed on the powerplay in the same way, but you still force the holes and angles to open up by moving around. Hemsky needs to concern himself less with setting himself up along the wall and more with creating with enough chaos to let Hall loose in the slot for the split second it will take him to send a Hemsky feed into the top corner.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure if that falls more on the coaching staff or Hemsky, but you can't help but think that a different tact and better personnel should produce exponential results for Hemsky.
I'd be curious to see Omark be the PP QB instead of Hemsky while they're both on the ice.
ReplyDeleteLT
ReplyDeleteas i said earlier..not calling you out or Hemsky out for that matter.
What i am sayign is that even now we expect him to break out. just an observation.
He has been that 0.8 to 0.9 p/g guy throughout his career now.Or maybe next year with PP clicking better his pace might be higher too. who konws
SumOil: Yeah, it's all good. I wonder what it would cost the Oilers to sign him to a 3-year deal? Do you go any longer?
ReplyDeleteThat could bite you in the ass if the injuries continue.
On the other hand, if you trade him there better be something good heading back.
There's the rub PD. We've already got another in-house option in Omark that does all those nifty things without being yelled at.
ReplyDeleteI've absolutely no stats to back myself with here, but what have Hemsky's 5x4/60 been like in recent years, relative to this one? Could he be a candidate to be bumped from the PP in favour of the kids/ concentrate on 20 minutes of 5x5 time per game?
dorito: 5x4/60 going back several seasons at the bottom of the post.
ReplyDeleteLT:
ReplyDeleteIt's my first day. ;)
How much value does 3rd in ES scoring carry on the trade market? It's a really f'ng impressive stat, but the negatives, of injuries and pending FA curbs the appetite of opposing GMs.
ReplyDeleteif 83 wants to test FA, and from what we have heard regarding Tambos treatment, he assuredly does, then you have to trade him. Why cling to him when you're a lottery team?
I can understand Dallas, with Richards, they gambled to make the playoffs, but they failed and now he's gone. I bet they'd rather Teubert, a 1st and a 3rd than zilch.
It's not even a gamble for us. There's no playoff drive.
If you can package the 31st and Hemmer for Johanssen then you do it.
Maybe something creative can happen like EDM extending Hemmer, package the 19th and Gagner for the 4th, grab Larsson 1st, take Couturier or Landeskrog in the 4th spot.
No worries.:-)
ReplyDeleteHemsky is someone I'd hate to see go, but it would not shock me if he does.
ReplyDeletePutting myself in his shoes, with all the talk of him being shopped by management, I don't see why he shows them any loyalty or cuts them a break on a value contract again.
For management, they are in a real bind because they seem to put more value on him (and maybe I do as well) than other teams have - which may be why he's still in an Oilers jerseys. Additionally, when he's healthy, he's a real NHL player - something that is badly lacking on this roster.
For those who keep saying we should trade our real NHL players for prospects, I have to ask how many more years of losing like this are we all willing to take?
Gagner and Hemsky are oil and water. They do NOT mix well. They should never be on the same even strength line. They play offense in entirely differently.
ReplyDeleteNow that Crawford is gone in Dallas, I wonder if Huddy will stay or be available? I always thought he did a fantastic job with the Oiler's blue, it's probably a pipe dream but he would look awfully good beside Renney and Kreuger behind the bench. I know that Bucky and Smith aren't going anywhere but that would be an upgrade IMO.
ReplyDeleteLowetide im loving all the Basement tapes references keep it up Zimmy and the Band cranked out the hits!
ReplyDeletegodot10:
ReplyDeleteTry and tell Columbus that Hemsky and Gagner are "oil and water".
Gagner and Hemsky are oil and water. They do NOT mix well. They should never be on the same even strength line. They play offense in entirely differently.
ReplyDeleteI think they play offense entirely the same, and two of those on one line isn't good.
They always seem to go to the same spots on the ice and no one is in a shooting position and they only players within 30ft of the goalie are his own team mates.
I love Hemsky.
I hope he stays, and not just to win a bet.
so Does NJ get the fourth pick?
ReplyDeleteIF so do the teams from 5-7 drop one each?
would appreciate an answer if anyone knows
oilersfan: Yes, it's exactly as you described.
ReplyDeleteOilerfan,
ReplyDeleteExactly
If the Oilers keep Hemsky what do you folks think of Glencross as a Penner replacement to play with Horc and Hemsky? Then Gagner with Hall and Eberle, Lander with MP and Omark, and VDV with Hart and Jones. Brule or Cogliano as extrra, trade the other.
ReplyDeleteOne signing fills out the roster up front, although I would like Reasoner too and give VDV another year .
If they draft Larsson that fills out the bottom ok and if they sign RNH leave him in junior and try real hard to sign Hejda.
2-3 achievable UFA signings and this could be a team in the mix ala COlumbus and St. Louis anyway, if not a playoff team.
Oh, and send Khabi to the KHL
Or to a liquour store. We won't see him back in both cases.
ReplyDeleteDraft order 1 thru 14
ReplyDeleteIf we're targeting another top 10 pick maybe Atlanta or Columbus might want to deal,other than
that I think it's going to be a tall order to move up.Jersey isn't going to give up that pick
with the league penalty hanging over their head for the next 3 years.Perhaps the Islanders if they think
they can make a push out of the basement dwellers.
I don't see the point of moving up from 18(ish) to 10,11,12 unless somebody like Couturier falls that far(which I think is unlikely)
And I agree that Hemsky is gone as well.I think the Oilers burned up any good will they might have had with him and he isn't going to
do the org any favours.
godot10 said...
ReplyDeleteGagner and Hemsky are oil and water. They do NOT mix well. They should never be on the same even strength line. They play offense in entirely differently.
I thought they were square pegs, or octagonal pegs or something? And we all know the efficacy of an NHL forward line is contingent on keeping the number of sides as low as possible.
Specific surface area is a fucking cancer in the dressing room too.
Its gonna be sad to see Hemsky go. Its almost as though nothing has changed since the '90s. Bye Smyth, bye Penner, bye Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteThe thing is with Hemsky he is almost guaranteed to get hurt. He loves to carry the puck over the opposition blueline and often gets hammered in the process.
ReplyDeleteAs Matheson said in the Journal (yesterday?) he will likely get moved at the deadline. No team will want him at the draft coming off surgery.
So you all can enjoy him until at least March.
I doubt that they move Hemsky. Perhaps they moved Penner because MacT is coming back, this time as Assistant GM. Stranger things have happened in hockey history...
ReplyDeleteDucey, I disagree I think Hemsky gets hurt far more often in the corners and along the wall. The guy refuses to give in when he's first to the puck in the corner. Actually, it's pretty rare that he gets caught at the blueline by my memory.
ReplyDeleteOne other thing, you should change that first sentence to read "The thing is with hockey players, they are almost guaranteed to get hurt."
ReplyDeleteLots of players get hurt. It's part of the risk equation for all players.
The business end of professional hockey is heartless, and it needs to be! Salary cap, 50 contract limitation, new talent coming up the pipeline, quickly aging assets, injuries, brutal competition in the Western Conference.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers' organization is clearly looking to the future and I don't see Hemsky in their future, as it is evident Penner wasn't either. Don't even know if Hemsky really fits on this team any more. And he isn't the only veteran (Gagner, Brule, JFJ, etc?) Probably very difficult if not impossible to trade Hemsky prior to the trade deadline.
LT has often said that MacGRegor doesn't like to go off the board.
ReplyDeleteWIth Bob Mackenzie's update today, 6 out of ten have RNH first, 2 out of ten have Larsson and 2 have Landeskog.
I would say not picking RNH is going off the board.
Sounds like he is pulling a Seguin...going out in round two of the playoffs without getting a single point. Not sure that is an elite talent. If you can't get a point in 4 games against your peers at this level when it matters, what does that say about your ability to do it in the NHL??
The Oilers' organization is clearly looking to the future and I don't see Hemsky in their future, as it is evident Penner wasn't either. Don't even know if Hemsky really fits on this team any more.
ReplyDeleteBecause he's being crowded out by all of our other skilled veteran forwards capable of outscoring at even strength?
"Steve Smith" said...
ReplyDelete"Because he's being crowded out by all of our other skilled veteran forwards capable of outscoring at even strength?"
That's the kind of thinking that will land you another Horcoff contract.
How's that working out?
Where is Traktor?
Pboy said "Now that Crawford is gone in Dallas, I wonder if Huddy will stay or be available? I always thought he did a fantastic job with the Oiler's blue, it's probably a pipe dream but he would look awfully good beside Renney and Kreuger behind the bench. I know that Bucky and Smith aren't going anywhere but that would be an upgrade IMO"
ReplyDeleteI would love to see Huddy back. IMO the difference between Denis Grebeshkov two years ago and last year was the loss of Huddy.
That's the kind of thinking that will land you another Horcoff contract.
ReplyDeleteInsofar as the Horcoff contract is a contract with a veteran forward capable of outscoring at even strength, yes. It's also the kind of thinking that could land us a Zetterberg contract. Or a Dustin Penner contract. Or an Iginla contract. Or a contract with any of god knows how many other veteran forwards capable of outscoring at even strength.
In summary, shut up.
In other news, the thinking "We need to sign a goalie" is the kind of thinking that can lead to a Rick DiPietro contract. How's that working out?
ReplyDelete"Steve Smith" said...
ReplyDeleteThat's the kind of thinking that will land you another Horcoff contract.
Insofar as the Horcoff contract is a contract with a veteran forward capable of outscoring at even strength, yes. It's also the kind of thinking that could land us a Zetterberg contract. Or a Dustin Penner contract. Or an Iginla contract. Or a contract with any of god knows how many other veteran forwards capable of outscoring at even strength.
In summary, shut up.
Zetterburg and Iginla are in different area codes.
You know that, right?
In summary, pull your head out of your ass.
Iginla's black and Zetterberg's Swedish. You know that, right?
ReplyDeleteLT is totally right about Hemsky. He's just a superb hockey player and he and Hall are the reasons to watch a bad team.
ReplyDeleteHaving Hemsky in his prime for 3-4 protects Eberle's development too. Eberle is good, but is he ready for the minutes and punishment of being #1 right wing at his age and size? Robin Regehr doesn't think so.
With the cap space the Oilers have, I'd offer him 3 years $17 million, 4 years $22 million or 5 years $26 million.
DSF you shoulda been on the leaders debate tonight. Rehashing the same old crap over and over.
ReplyDeleteOf course Hemsky is gone - why would anyone sensible stay after giving this franchise a sweetheart contract and watching them piss it away. Having Tambo the chai wallah so obviously throw him on the trade block this spring must be galling as well. No doubt he's gone and next season will not be much different than this one.
ReplyDeleteWe will not get anything like Johanssen for him either - but you might get a guy like Voracek - basically a bigger poor man's version of Ales who is closer in age to the other kids.
DSF doesn't actually do anything to contribute to a discussion. He's simply here to troll, I thought that was obvious by now.
ReplyDeleteTraktor himself isn't a troll, he just has an unhealthy obsession with Horcoff and seems to have fixated on old Shawn as the source or embodiment of all the Oiler's maladies.
Pre-Horcoffian obsession where he rehashes the ills of the dirty Russian ad naseum, Traktor was still pretty dickish, but he was conherent and would add an interesting point every now and again.
DSF on the other hand, has always pretty much just tried to get people riled up. The modus operandi is:
1. Post some inflammatory comment with vacuous 'proof'
2. Sit back and enjoy the fireworks
3. Every so often when things start to calm down toss some more kindling on the fire
4. ????????? Profit?
I'm surprised that people around here still rise to his particular brand of bait.
Having Tambo the chai wallah so obviously throw him on the trade block this spring must be galling as well.
ReplyDeleteAsiaoil, that wasn't very nice. Chai wallahs make a living as best they can serving tea. Also chai is delicious. That's quite the insult to chai wallahs everywhere to be spoken in the same breath with Toonces.
topsucta: a typo that should have read topsucka, i.e. the 'winner' of the 1st overall pick.
I know it's off topic, but Red Deer is down 0-3 and RNH has not done anything in this series.
ReplyDeleteStats wise, very similar to last season when Seguin did nothing in their playoff round 2 loss to Taylor Hall's team. But then, Seguin's team was obviously inferior across the board.
Anyone know enough about this series to say if the same applies or, they've just run into a hot goalie (Tyler Bunz)?
Rich: Red Deer's a 2nd seed and Medicine Hat the 3rd seed.
ReplyDeleteHere's the 3rd game resume for prospects:
Dougie Hamilton 0 G 3 A 3 PTS +1
Jonathan Huberdeau 2 G 0 A 2 PTS +1
Zack Phillips 1 G 1 A 2 PTS +0
Ryan Strome 1 G 0 A 1 PTS +1
Sean Couturier 1 G 0 A 1 PTS -1
Duncan Siemens 0 G 0 A 0 PTS -1
RNH 0 G 0 A 0 PTS -1
Dougie Hamilton wins the night. Tough playoffs overall for Duncan Siemens. While not negative, Strome has slowed down from the season, but he scores on a consistant basis. RNH still with 0 points vs Medicine Hat.
I was just about to post, Bunz is having a very good playoff run which seems to be flying under the radar.
ReplyDeleteHis current stats are 1.86 GAA 0.944 SV%, both of which are tops in the WHL playoffs.
He's only got 4 games played though, as it seems he's been splitting time with DD doppelganger Deven Dubyk (6 GP).
His stats in the playoffs are 4.41 GAA and 0.872 SV%.
The defensively sound Tigers are doing a very good job of shutting down the top 2 lines of the Rebels. Too bad, as it seems we'll miss out on further opportunities to watch RNH.
Anyone else notice that TSN's fantasy playoffs article has Dallas listed, and the CBC playoff pool has Dallas players available to be picked?
ReplyDeleteAm I missing something, because I thought Dallas was out.
@fpb: Keep those morning updates coming - it's good info to have now that the games mean even more.
ReplyDelete@jon k: Bunz missed a couple of games due to a concussion in the first round series, but has come back and been very good (by the numbers) in round 2. Whether he's that hot, or Medicine Hat is playing a shut down style or Red Deer has just hit the wall I don't know. But RNH has been invisible in this series - and that's a concern as has been the % of his points on the PP this entire season.
Very far be it from me to question all the scouts, but these are some red flags. I trust MBS to get it right, but I don't see how anyone can say one is clearly above the other - unless there's an injury we don't know about.
It's difficult sorting through the SEL sites, but as of this morning Skelleftea is facing elimination to Farjestads with the series at 3 games to 1.
ReplyDeleteSkelleftea lost their last game in a heart breaker, apparently badly outplaying Farjestads but going down in the end 2-1. For those interested some game highlights can be found here:
http://tv.hockeyligan.se/main.aspx?contentid=566474509313
About 1:22 in you can see Rundblad demonstrate why he has so many points this season, even though he didn't ultimately score on that sequence. Hat tip to the HF guys that linked to the highlights and updates on the game.
Also interesting, some posters described Farjestad as the Minnesota Wild of the SEL, playing a boring trapping style and seem to have real loathing for them. Fun times.
Hemmer's current deal stopped being a "value" contract when he started missing 2/3rds of seasons.
ReplyDeleteHis last season-ending injury came on a play that looked like nothing.
Do we really want to sign him to a $5 million/ 4-year deal and watch him miss 30-50 games a year just so we can keep talking about how great his stats look when they're extrapolated?
We're always talking about the need for actual NHL players, but doesn't that label require them to play actual NHL seasons?
Lots of players get hurt. It's part of the risk equation for all players.
ReplyDeleteSure, but some, like Hemsky, get hurt more than others.
Here's a stat I found interesting.
ReplyDeleteAll of RNH's points against the MH Tigers in the regular season came on the PP.
No points 5v5 against them in 6 games in the regular season and in 3 games in the playoffs.
Does he disappear 5v5 against quality D?
I know others have posted that a unhealthy percentage of points come on the PP. It might be telling.
The next level (AHL) is even harder to score 5v5 and NHL is extremely tough.
If he has problems 5v5 in the WHL, it makes you wonder.
We will not get anything like Johanssen for him (Hemsky) either
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't sound like Tambo wants to trade the #1 but CLB and BOS are 8 and 9th and have the two of the best C prospects (besides LA).
Hemsky and the #1 for Johanssen/ Seguin and the 8th or 9th might be the basis of a deal with those teams.
Seguin or Johanssen > Nuge
Trading Hemsky makes zero sense from any angle, especially when you know it will be for some more of those magic beans that are so famous around here. He has shown in the past that he plays his best when the stakes are highest, and that is a trait that should not be cast aside lightly. I hate to think of watching him with Detroit for the next ten years.
ReplyDeleteLA's 1st + Hemsky for Seguin/Johanssen and you'd get me to the table (since I agree with everyone that Hemsky is likely gone).
ReplyDeleteTrade 1st overall + Hemsky out of the top 6 overall? I'd likely pass on that one.
If RNH struggles during 5on5, with the amount of viewing he's getting from the scouts, MacGregor will be keenly aware of this.
ReplyDeleteInflated PP stats can easily fool the masses into a frenzy (Sugartits), but when its concering a #1 pick, I don't think its a realistic thing for Oilers fans to generate anxiety over.
If it really is a big deal, I doubt Stu will take him.
In my opinion, I would trade Hemsky via some sort of package to move up in the draft. Hemsky is one of my favourite players, but if he is hurt all the time, then what good does that do you? It's kind of like owning a business, and your best employee:
ReplyDelete1) Never seems to fulfill his potential; and
2) Only shows up to work 50% of the time.
Wouldn't that be frustrating?
If I were to make a suggestion to Tambellini, how about first deciding what range you want to shoot for? I would want a top 8 pick. Therefore, the teams that are most likely willing to make a deal would either be Columbus, NYI or New Jersey.
In New Jersey's case, they have cap problems, so I don't think they would be interested unless you send a nice package of young talent back. Regardless, I would either package Hemsky + 1st rounder (from L.A.) + additional pick or prospect to the Islanders or Blue Jackets and see if they bite. It's wild speculation to assume to know what they would want, but if it wasn't unreasonable, I would make that type of deal.
If it didn't involve Hemsky, then trade him separately for another 1st rounder + whatever prospect/picks you can get.
I see trading him as a positive. It lowers the payroll, it frees up playing time for the young players in order to accelerate their development. Moreover, you get rid of what has become an "unreliable" player when it comes to health. I just see no point in keeping him. If he was healthy most of the time, I would keep him, but at this time we are in a complete rebuild, so what would be the point?
I hope something is done at the draft.
An apt song choice for the entire Oilers franchise. Just set the bile amplifier to 11 and let 'er rip.
ReplyDeleteJust imagine Dylan's Mister Jones was Tambellini, who appears to have got 100% on draft lotteries and nothing else in his GM 101 class:
"Because something is happening here
and you don't know what it is
Do you, Mister Jones"
or this famous verse that, if you think the metaphor through with a hockey spin, pretty much sums up what the Oilers franchise thinks of its fans:
"You have many contacts
among the lumberjacks
To get you facts
When someone attacks your imagination
But nobody has any respect
Anyway they already expect you
To just give a check
To tax-deductible charity organizations"
Now that the good performers are mostly done with in your year in review, I can't wait to find out which of Dylan's five-decade mountain of songs of contempt will be used for "Lily, Rosemary and the Jack of Hearts" — the Oilers' fourth line.
Tencer..
ReplyDeleteWord this morning that Devan Dubnyk is off to play for Canada at the World's. This means he's the 1 or 2...wouldn't go as the 3 again.
Sweet.
Dreger...
ReplyDeleteTambellini made it clear that this pick will be in play and he's eager to listen to all of the trade proposals that will come his way.
Again...the No. 1 overall pick is in play.
I'm sure it's just lip service.
Uni you are correct - I apologize to all the chai wallahs out since so many are actually good at their job - the correct term for Tambo is actually "Lowe wallah" :)
ReplyDeleteHemsky's like a hot girlfriend where the sex is incredible but for whatever reason, you can't stop arguing with her when you're not doing it. Eventually, as much as you know you'll miss the sex, there comes a time when it's no longer worth the overall aggravation.
ReplyDeleteThe injury and chemistry issues are becoming too big to overlook anymore. As for keeping him around to mentor the kids, isn't this a player who's been tagged as often being the last on and first off the ice at practice? That doesn't sound like mentor material to me.
The consistent argument for players like Horcoff, Hemsky, Gilbert, etc. seems to be that they are good players and thus not part of the problem for an org desperately in need of same. I would argue otherwise. They're tweeners. Not quite good enough to be superstars and too late in their careers to reinvent themselves in a lesser role and for less money. Or at the very least, would they want to reinvent themselves in this way with the Oil? I have my doubts.
They need to be moved so the new core can rise to the top and suitable role players plugged in from the farm or FA once the core matures and solidifies.
Also, an interesting bit from Dreger...
ReplyDeleteLandeskog sees nothing wrong with returning to the Kitchener Rangers, but his goal is to play in the NHL next year and he intends on leaning on Oilers rookie Magnus Paajarvi to help achieve it.
Landeskog says he trained with Paajarvi last summer and a key part of their weekly ritual included sprinting up a Swedish ski hill 10-15 times per session.
"Mag has the strongest legs in the world," said Landeskog.
It sounded as if Hall was liking Landeskog as well yesterday...But has since said that any of the four top players would be fine.
I'd put the #1 in play for sure. With teams like Pittsburgh in cap-hell, they may be willing to do some reshaping.
ReplyDeleteSomething like the #1 and Cogliano might convince PIT to move Malkin to clear up some cap space.
It is quite nice to imagine a scenario where the Oil draft Landeskog, trade Hemsky to move up in the draft to select Strome and then sign Erhoff in free agency. Imagine that, an org that actually addresses all their needs in a single offseason!
ReplyDeleteAlternatively, they could draft Larsson, trade up for Landeskog and go after Brad Richards on the FA market. Would be leery of Richards becoming the next Brian Campbell with this scenario however.
Alternatively, they could draft Larsson, trade up for Landeskog and go after Brad Richards on the FA market. Would be leery of Richards becoming the next Brian Campbell with this scenario however.
ReplyDeleteRichards is not coming here. No FA of consequence will.
In fact, name me the top 10 FA acquisitions for the Oilers - ever. Its an ugly list, devoid of stars.
Its simply not an available method of player acquisition for the Oilers.
Ribs...Your last two posts back each other up.Magnus and Hall like Landeskog.You don't need the first pick to get Landeskog
ReplyDeleteI apologize to all the chai wallahs out since so many are actually good at their job - the correct term for Tambo is actually "Lowe wallah" :)
ReplyDeleteAsiaoil, while I am heartened by your retraction of the inadvertent slight on chai wallahs everywhere, I find the images that the term "Lowe wallah" invoke even more disturbing somehow *ick*.
hockeyguy - That's true. I just don't know how much weight the opinion of Hall and Paajarvi have on a draft pick. It is interesting to hear a third name thrown into the Larrson/Nugent-Hopkins debate by someone of note, in any case.
ReplyDeleteTerry Jones Tweet...
ReplyDeleteOilers Magnus Paajarvi, a star in the event last year for Sweden, has been named to the World Hockey Championships team.
I don't know if I would miss Hemsky, since he is never around. I know the team won't be as good without him.
ReplyDeleteThere are a couple of minor upsets happening in the dub it appears, with first place Saskatoon and second place Red Deer both facing elimination. Report be Millard at the Pipeline show: http://thepipelineshow.blogspot.com/2011/04/whl-playoffsblades-and-rebels-on-run.html
Schenn a dud?
ReplyDeleteIf Saskatoon loses, does that mean Tambellini dodged a bullet when he didn't pry Schenn out of LA for Penner?
From Team Canada star to Magic Has-Been in such a short time.
Wow. Magnus gets named to Team Sweden, and Linus gets named to team OKC.
ReplyDeleteYou know, I remember someone suggesting that the goal is to build a culture of respect where players earn the opportunity to advance... This decision by management will not advance that goal.
Feel really bad for Omark right now. Definitely an opportunity to show some character, but that's gotta be a smack in the face, no?
hophanes - what he used to be known as back in the hood, before he wanted to move up in the world and started using Aristophanes...
hoil: Imagine the Hawks win tonight and really see the definition of reputation meltdown.
ReplyDeleteFuck Omark, and his constant whining.
ReplyDeleteWow hunter... tell us how you really feel?
ReplyDeletephaunf: I can't beleive I just got this... Douchie McDoucherson!
Omark already had a spot locked up on the Swedish WHC team.
ReplyDeleteThe only reason the Oilers sent him to OKC was to give the Barons ownership a better chance at a deep playoff run. Purely political.
The respectful thing to do would have been to put Reddox on the clear day roster instead and send him down since he has no chance of other games and would have really helped the Barons lineup.
Omark has nothing much to prove at the AHL level. This is all 'political' and has very little to do with development. Damn straight it's a slap in to the face to Omark, and he should be upset. Anyone who says otherwise isn't thinking straight. Imagine the ire if Eberle was penciled into the WHC team and got stuck in OKC instead.
Its simply not an available method of player acquisition for the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteNot for stars, no (though we can hope it will be one day - the free agency era has corresponding largely to the era in which the Oilers sucked). They've picked up some pretty useful supporting players via free agency over the years, though - Steve Staios, Mike Comrie (second time around), Marty Reasoner (second time around), Petr Sykora (who probably was a star, in the context of that team, actually), Daniel Tjarnqvist, Dick Tarnstrom (second time around), Rem Murray (second time around)...basically, an average of one useful piece per year since the lockout.
And that doesn't count the signing that blew up in our face - Souray and Foster being the obvious examples - or the ones that just turned out to be pretty inconsequential, like Todd Harvey. I think there's lots of evidence that players, including those with other options, will sign here. I agree that Brad Richards isn't happening, though.
(It's actually interesting how many of our UFA signings were of players who had played here before.)
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWell Jordan, it all started when...
ReplyDeleteI stopped caring about the precious sensibilities of professional athletes.
Maybe Omark can join the team once the Barons are knocked out of the first round..Hah.
ReplyDeleteuni & Jordan: Respect your right to that opinion but disagree a little with you about Omark.
ReplyDeleteThis is management asking Omark to be a team player (rightly or wrongly) and help sell the game in OKC.
So they want OKC to be succesful and send in guys who can help sell the game.
The benefit is to the org more than the player (that we agree). They might lose a little less money down there this year - and sell more tix next year.
I know they say in public it's about adjusting to the size of the rink - but I don't know that I buy it given how well he played in the NHL. It does give him the potential to play more hockey if they make a run though.
Maybe in a way they are telling him off, but they're asking him to be a team player. Perhaps the way they did it wasn't great - I wasn't there to witness the conversation and nothing would surprise me.
But sending down Reddox was not an option because he'd have to clear waivers and well, we all know how Vish feels about his "assets".
Gene tweets....
ReplyDeleteThis team is not ready to go after a 10 milion dollar UFA..we'll look at them but the plan is to continue to build from within..Tambellini
I guess that's a solid NO to Richards.
Jordan, Uni,
ReplyDeleteI disagree about Omark. I think v3.0 did the right thing.
Omark has never played playoff hockey on NA ice. He plays for the Oilers so the next chance he gets to play playoffs on the small ice is probably spring of 2014.
Being in a playoff series (and hopefully go deep) in the AHL with a probable Oiler linemate in Hartikainen with help Omark with his small ice game.
He'll have plenty of time to play in the WC in the next two years.
Reddox couldn't be on the clear day roster since he'd have to clear waivers.
Some have argued that then 14 and 91 should have been on the clear day roster, but given that they never played a game in the AHL this would have been a slap in the face to the players who slugged it out down there and would have been bad politically vis a vi attracting and keeping good players in the AHL.
If 23 wants to have a good NHL career, the AHL playoffs are much more important than the WC this year.
I see Rich beat me to it, albeit with a different slant.
ReplyDeleteI believe that playoff hockey is a different animal, even in the AHL, and it will be good for him.
I believe that playoff hockey is a different animal, even in the AHL, and it will be good for him.
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
He needs to learn to play when guys are trying to "wear him down" (ie hurt him) in a series. The physical play is going to be much greater in the AHL than in the WC's. Especially as he is likely going to be one of the main targets for the opposition. Omark needs to be able to deal with it.
Anyway, as the Oilers will out of the playoffs next year, he can play in the WC's after playing a full NHL season.
Everyone tweets...
ReplyDeleteTyler Pitlick has signed an entry level contract with the Oilers...
Gener...
ReplyDeleteTambellini saying whomever first overall might be the Oil GM says it's probable that unlike Hall.first pick wouldn't join Oil right away
Tambellini saying whomever first overall might be the Oil GM says it's probable that unlike Hall.first pick wouldn't join Oil right away
ReplyDeleteYou can count me among the people pleased to hear that.
That suggests Larsson if it suggests anybody, though, doesn't it? Leaving a player in a European pro league seems an easier call than leaving one in major-junior.
Also,
ReplyDeleteTo everyone who thinks I'm knee jerk anti-v3.0, the above post is evidence to the contrary.
I also think his work in creating a development system and getting a better AHL team is also good to very good.
I take each decision at face value. Unfortunately his decisions regarding acquiring/trading NHL caliber players is not good.
I've even suggested that perhaps his pro scouting staff is letting him down and perhaps they need to improve that area as well.
T.Jones Tweet...
ReplyDeleteDevelop the talent say GM. Add components to win a faceoff and be better on defence. Go for playoffs but stay the course.
Well, he's saying all of the rihgt things. Let's see if there is any follow through.
If it didn't involve Hemsky, then trade him separately for another 1st rounder + whatever prospect/picks you can get….. I hope something is done at the draft.
ReplyDeleteHemsky is hurt.
The chances he is traded at the draft is tiny, miniscule, and/or sub-atomic.
Hasn't this been mentioned already?
SS,
ReplyDeleteCould mean RNH equally. Even his backers admit he needs another year of fattening up before he joins the NHL.
For some guys, it's a good thing; Eberle hit the ground running with that extra year of junior. If they do go the RNH route, outside of a training camp miracle (or steroids) he will be back in Dub again next season.
SS: I think it applies to RNH as well--he needs to put on weight and is pretty young for his draft year. Another year in junior would suit him fine.
ReplyDeleteThe only one I think it might eliminate is Landeskog, who appears to be the most NHL ready of the draft picks.
Larsson probably has the intelligence to play right away, but I'm concerned that if they want him to emerge as more than a puck-moving shut-down guy (IE, a rich man's Smid), that he needs to concentrate on offense for a bit. If I were the Oilers, I'd send him to the AHL so he has comparable competition to what he's faced before and only has to adjust to the style of the game, and tell him to concentrate on offense, and bring him onto the squad in the 2012-2013. I just don't want to see him turn into Smid; a guy with the raw tools to play an offensive game, but not the toolbox, because he never had a chance to learn that aspect at the lower levels of competition.
ReplyDeleteIt would be pretty awesome to watch Oilers prospect Nugent-Hopkins lead Team Canada to gold...in Edmonton, next year.
ReplyDeleteFor the specific context of this offseason and next year, I don't actually care if Tambellini means what he is saying in the last few days. I'm just pleased he is saying things that acknowledge the holes of this team. We know that he is at least aware of the problems. That's more than we could say about management in the recent past, including 2.0, 1.0, and Vish.
ReplyDeleteBaby steps for a baby franchise with a baby owner.
ribs: In Calgary next year. Edmonton will only be getting exhibition and round robin games.
ReplyDeleteHemsky is hurt.
ReplyDeleteThe chances he is traded at the draft is tiny, miniscule, and/or sub-atomic.
Hasn't this been mentioned already?
It has been mentioned but that doesn't make it gospel.Hemsky's injury(labrum) has a reasonably defined return date with a reasonable chance of full recovery.
Does that affect his value..?
Would it be better to have him return to the NHL so the other GMs can see that he is healthy..? **
Probably.
**that was me doing my 3.0 impersonation..:)
-shemb-robbie schremp's older,fatter cousin
Ribs,I was told by a friend who already has tickets,all playoff games are in Calgary because it seats more.
ReplyDeleteAnd I would hope the players have no influence on who they pick ie. inmates running the asylum.
stmer:grew up playing hockey with Smid.
Ah.. I wondered about the Cgy/Edm split as I was typing it. Still, I'm sure a lot of Oilers fans will be in attendance.
ReplyDeleteIreland tweets...
ReplyDeleteJordan Eberle will play for Team Canada at Worlds. One of 11 named to team.
Having Nugent-Hopkins dominating in Calgary in front of all those Flames fans sounds like fun.
ReplyDeleteGerta: You'd be correct if the labrum was Hemsky's only significant injury in the last couple of years. It's not. This is a player who now has the risk (but not certainty) of chronic problems for his shoulders, knees and groin. He's only played 141 of the last 246 games. In other words, I think he's definitely got an injury prone label until he can put together a full season.
ReplyDeleteBecause of that stigma, I don't see how Hemsky gets moved before next trade deadline. The fact that his name has come up in trade rumours twice (last draft and deadline) indicates that the Oilers aren't opposed to moving him, but won't ship him off for just anything - they could have done this if they were so inclined.
For those hoping to keep Hemsky, this could be taken as good news as I think Hemsky's unlikely to receive a big FA offering from another club, unless he really puts it all together next year. His 5x5 numbers are fantastic, but I think a lot of GMs are risk adverse and will see him more like an expensive, if more exciting, Steve Sullivan until we see better health.
This is a player who now has the risk (but not certainty) of chronic problems for his shoulders, knees and groin.
ReplyDeleteI can see his shoulders being suspect as they've both been worked on but he's injured his groin once and his knees seem to be in pretty good shape as he continues to blow by defenders habitually. I'd be more worried about concussions.
Point taken Cactus.
ReplyDeleteThe argument then is do you risk having this injury prone player play 60 hockey games just to get to the deadline so you can trade him.
And you left out his concussion history.
We'll see.
Craig Button has the Oilers taking the Nuge and Larssen dropping to 6th.
ReplyDeleteI can see the first, but there is no way the Swede drops to 6th
http://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=362111
Craig Button: Further evidence of the fact that those who can't - become talking heads.
Ribs/Gerta: good point on the concussions. I didn't add them initially because I felt that they weren't enough of a pattern but more bad luck (though the same could be said about the knee and groin problems).
ReplyDeleteIn any event, I think it's worth extending him this summer to a reasonable 3 year deal, somewhere between $4-5M per. This could retain his services to develop the kids without mortgaging future cap flexibility. I think if the Oilers come through with a deal like that, he'll have to seriously consider it because another injury filled season probably caps his open market value at $4M.
Craig Button predicting anything makes me feel better.
ReplyDeleteNice guy, but no draft genious.
Paper Designer, you hit the nail on the head. Smid put up some decent numbers as an AHL rookie before he was thrown to the wolves in the NHL on a horrid team. Great way to ruin a prospect's confidence and have him run in place for 2-3 seasons.
ReplyDeleteIf the Oilers draft Larsson, and I really hope they do, I'd love to have him spend 2 seasons more or so in a combination of the SEL and the AHL. Give him a chance to work out more kinks in his game and get some more of those prime offensive minutes and situations once Rundblad gets the call from the Sens.
Uni, I think given the toolkit and hockey sense that it's reasonable to expect Larsson to adjust faster than Smid. But of course, you play it as it goes. If Larsson looks like he's still adjusting by the end of 2011-2012, then you can have him start in the AHL again in 2012-2013. But I would hope that, like the guys at the top of the draft have typically had, has an accelerated development curve. Guys that don't tend to make hay quickly tend to end up playing lower in your line-up than you were hoping, if at all (see: lengthy development curve of Marc Pouliot, JF Jacques).
ReplyDeleteDon't get me wrong-I was firmly in the keep Hemsky/Penner camp before the deadline.My opinion changed after Penner was dealt and then Hemsky promptly injured his shoulder.
ReplyDeleteI mentioned earlier in the thread--it seems like 3 days ago now--that whatever goodwill we had with Hemsky has been burned up and I doubt he does us any favours.If he is willing to sign a short term deal(3 years or less) I'm all for it..but I'll believe it when I see it.
You know, from a team and development standpoint, I totally agree with both Woodguy and Rich that this is a political decision that has benefits for both OKC and Omark.
ReplyDeleteBut for a guy who's been a very strong player during the death march, to see his younger, less experienced team mate get green lighted to the Worlds, while he's been told to report back to the AHL for the playoffs there and support the franchise, when even Reddox isn't going back there...
I'd be pissed if it was me. I'd have a lot to prove, and I'd go blow the doors off the barn, but this is the kind of thing that gives a team an unfavourable reputation amongst players.
Devan Dubnyk had 2 more wins this year than Khabibulin.
ReplyDeleteDevan Dubnyk had 19 fewer losses than Khabibulin.
I'm stealing this from HF boards but, where would we be without 'The Rebuilder' ?
Tambo's signing, is directly responsible for Taylor Hall + this years 1st.
In your face Tyler Dellow.
I'd be pissed if it was me. I'd have a lot to prove, and I'd go blow the doors off the barn, but this is the kind of thing that gives a team an unfavourable reputation amongst players.
ReplyDeleteMaybe you would then remember that:
1) you signed a contract;
2)MPS is 4 yrs younger and was 10th overall in the draft;
3)you were a 4th round draft pick;
4)you have a lot to prove still - the fight for spots on the wing on this team in two years is going to be fierce. There are already three young studs ahead of you and Hartikanen and Hamilton are in the rear view and gaining.
Suck it up Linus.
It remains thin at centre and, beyond veteran Whitney and prospect Martin Marincin, a wasteland on defence. It remains unclear how swiftly defensive prospect Colton Teubert, acquired along with the Kings' firstround pick, in the trade that sent Dustin Penner to Los Angeles, will move up the ladder.
ReplyDeleteWow, how does MacKinnon really feel about Gilbert?
Looks like Pitlick signed ELC.
ReplyDeleteDanny: you understand that if the Oil made that trade with Pit they would be trying to win, right? Are you OK with that;)
ReplyDeleteTo the guy who said they'd need Larssen to be a rich man's Smid, I think we need him to be a fabulously wealthy Smid;)
Because the Oilers were clearly shopping 83 Before his latest injury - Tambo was only happy to tell us so on deadline night - then I don't expect Hemsky to give us any kind of bargain and unless he doesn't then I'm really not in favour of bringing him back either.
I'm not sure at what figure I'd walk away from him but I do believe he needs to cut us some kind of special price before we take a chance on him.
As for the draft, when you read things like two Oilers org employees putting RNH's vision in the same catergory as 99's then I imagine we can see which way they're leaning.
I wish that we Knew 4 would be fine at pivot and then I'd like to take the big swedish winger with the first year.
and, yeah, nice to see that someone knows we need a centre and better D. I think there's a lot more big player potential up front than there is on the D to the point that you could maybe add one or two players up front next year but overall be content that a lot of the pieces are already there and just need seasoning.
but on the backend there looks to be a lot of low ceilings; or at least lower than what we need.
Schitzo: Apparently, Gilbert isn't allowed to be a good NHL defencemen without hitting because he is 6'3". Nevermind he's one of two established top four defenceman on this team.
ReplyDeleteDennis....
ReplyDeleteWe both win this way.
I get to enjoy a competitive team in 3 years, and you get to bitch and moan for 2 more years about how if we had signed Reasoner and Hejda in '09, we couldve competed for 8th place three years in a row.
its right in our respective wheelhouses ;)
Dennis: A part of me hopes they are saying all the nice things about RNH because they're trying to throw off the scent/create a scenario in which they can trade down to get another pick and package something.
ReplyDeleteBut the other part of me just see's this as blatant Vish pulling the strings because it sounds a lot like him.
Time for 3.0 to buy Vish a bottle of scotch and tell him to sit in the corner until the draft is done while everyone else gets to work.
Actually, Dennis, the point I was trying to make is that if they don't give Larsson another developmental year to take a step forward offensively, I am concerned that Larsson will end up as what I see his floor of being. Namely, a somewhat better version of Smid; moves the puck, plays physical, plays defence, but doesn't actually use his tools to score the way you think he should.
ReplyDeleteAlthough, since he can apparently shoot the puck, he might have a chance to get some points on the powerplay.
Danny: yeah, I don't mind watching teams that always miss the playoffs and hope that all the kids stay healthy and don't regress or stall in their development.
ReplyDeleteIf the Oil added a couple of competent, not flashy, not offensive, but simply competent D over the summer (4-5 quality) then I think this team improves a lot. Dennis is right that the team is really looking better up front and does not need much more than a veteran addition to help with tougher sledding. But the D needs a lot of work, and that is if the team keeps Gilbert and Smid.
ReplyDeletecuraf - what you brew cuffee in
Surprised no one has mentioned that winnipeg is getting the coyotes next year.
ReplyDeleteDennis, this team was run so far into the ground that I see this as the best option to recover.
ReplyDeleteI wish we never had the guys that got us here running the show, but they can't even F up finishing 30th ( like Ottawa did)
I'm willing to sacrifice a few years of fighting for 8th, you're not. It's all good.
Boopronger: don't count your chickens... we've been down this road before.
ReplyDeleteAs for the weakenesses on defence, I think this is a need that might be better drafted through quantity rather than quality. Given the long development times, putting the LAK and 2nd rounder (and more) to D men, while taking the best forward at 1st overall strikes me as a safer prospect than betting our defensive hopes on one player (Larsson).
Ya cactus i guess your right. Listening to the radio today they made it sound like it was a done deal.
ReplyDeleteReasonable Artspectations no. 3: Ales Hemsky, the Prince of Pardubice [rough] http://plixi.com/p/92183025
ReplyDeleteBob Mackenzie has no idea either when it comes to the 'Yotes.
ReplyDeleteGetting a competent defense is better than worrying about getting a Duncan Keith type for the future. I would be happy for the Oil to draft Larsson, but it is not necessary to the future success of the team to have him (as he is promised to be anyway). But if you have a good core of 5 or so quality NHL D then this team can go deep within a few years, and not have to pay through the nose to have those players either.