This week's column is here. The Oilers item is this one: Would the Edmonton Oilers be interested in bringing back Denis Grebeshkov? They traded him because his arbitration number was going to be too high, but with some extra cap room and a need for defencemen, it might not be a bad idea. Of course, it will all come down to money, and St. Petersburg pays very well.
It's an interesting question. The Oilers blue has all kinds of problems, chief among them a lack of actual NHL players. Ryan Whitney's injuries mean that one of the veterans has a question mark no matter how healthy he appears to be at any given time. Tom Gilbert is a quality veteran, but after that there's a major drop in quality before Ladislav Smid and Kurtis Foster are seen. Jim Vandermeer (a UFA) can also be grouped in there, and the organization does have some nice quality youth coming up on the scene.
Grebeshkov would certainly be good enough for top 4 duty for the group above, probably slotting behind Whitney-Gilbert and ahead of the rest. He has some chaos to his game, so perhaps he would be best suited to playing alongside a veteran stay at home type. MacT got a lot from him offensively at 5x5 by playing Grebeshkov in calmer waters. He has played well here in the past and may be able to do it again.
Would Grebeshkov--signed to a reasonable contract--be a worthwhile investment for the 11-12 Edmonton Oilers?
Yes. Anything to avoid this kind of disaster next year. They need to ice a competitive team next year, this losing stuff sucks for everyone involved. Which means they won't do it.
ReplyDeleteWell the advantage of signing Grebeshkov is that it's only money. No assets to give up.
ReplyDeleteFunny to see you bring this up LT, I was thinking about the same thing myself back before the Penner trade, in wondering what kind of roster the Oilers might be able to ice if they were/are willing to spend to the cap next season, trying to make the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteIn my mind I was wondering about bringing back Grebeshkov and potentially throwing a boatload of money at Markov on a 2 year deal.
At a reasonable price point, Grebeshkov strikes me as a decent fit, especially if his memories of EDM are good because I'd imagine it hard to attract quality UFA talent barring overpays if you are coming off back to back last place finishes.
Seems to me the guy the blue is missing is the kind of guy with whom Grebs is best partnered.
ReplyDeleteAlthough, like Gilbert and Whitney he is not much of a shooter, the PP could probably use him right now.
If it's anything more than a mil a season then that's an over-payment. Four assists in eight games is hardly impressive.
ReplyDeleteSan Jose getting lit up like dad at the poker table.
ReplyDeleteWould Grebeshkov--signed to a reasonable contract--be a worthwhile investment for the 11-12 Edmonton Oilers?
ReplyDelete100%
He's been on the top of my to get D list.
They really need a RH guy though.
But a decent leftie is better than what they have now.
strap, what vice-principals were for.
Interesting thought. I have had the same thought a few times this year. Got the idea that Grebs liked it in Edmonton and from time to time he looked pretty decent. I remember writing in this blog a couple years ago that I would keep him and trade Gilbert. Not sure how right I was, but Grebs did play in the Olympics. That means others must like him as well.
ReplyDeleteFingst. frozen food in the fridge??
Trevor: where are you getting those numbers?
ReplyDeletehttp://en.khl.ru/stat/players/185/all/3409/
This page shows that he led St Pete D in points and plus minus during the regular season.
He's also had a good playoff too.
I loved Grebs when he was here, brown blotter and all.
ReplyDeleteOne of the things I lamented when Vis and Grebs were back there was that they were passing to ham fisted forwards who couldn't take a pass in stride if their life depended on it.
The forwards are bettter now (especially if 83 plays in Edmonton next year), and a guy like Grebs who can make a good hard 60ft pass on the tape is invaluable for speedy forwards with hands.
Therefore v3.0 won't even consider it.
Got the idea that Grebs liked it in Edmonton and from time to time he looked pretty decent.
ReplyDeleteGrebs stated he was thankful to Lowe for giving him a chance at an NHL career after NYI pissed him away.
Also,
I'm reposting this from the bottom of the previous thread:
Matty was on the Team 1260 morning show this morning.
2 gems from him:
1). The Oilers better sign Jones and fast, they let Glencross go and better not let it happen again.
2). The Oilers bottom 6 is fine, but they need to figure out their top 6.
I yelled at the radio on the first one, but the second one made me laugh so hard I blew snot bubbles.
Hall of Fame eh?
I bet Morey Gare shares his views.
I've never met or heard from Gare so that's kinda harsh, but I despise 90%ish of the Oilers' track record on professional acquisition since the Roloson trade.
Woodguy: I don't know. They have no obvious candidates for NHL action in the minors (that they can count on) beyond Petry for next season.
ReplyDeleteSo if they sign Grebs, the NHL depth chart might look like this:
1. Whitney
2. Gilbert
3. Grebeshkov
4. Petry
5. Smid
6. Peckham
7. Larsson/Chorney/Plante
Have to trade Foster, though.
Is he better than Edmonton's 6th best defenseman? Yes? Is he likely to kill the Hallberle family puppy? No? Then sign him.
ReplyDeletePlease, for the love of god, start building this team again as soon as after selecting #1 OV.
Is that the same Matty who made the unfortunate suggestion that Ian Laperriere should consider a job hockey commentating despite still struggling with bright lights?
ReplyDeleteSometimes I wonder if Grebs left his blotter with Matheson for safe-keeping.
Patik: clothing for Black Dogs Who Hate Skunks.
The only problem is that Lowe probably has his heart set on another lottery pick next year, and adding an NHL-caliber defender is probably risking that too much for their comfort. He's older than Mr. Hall, we can't have that. Makes too much sense.
ReplyDelete@LoweTide http://en.khl.ru/players/11/
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't call that a good playoffs and that's when it matters.
And.....
17 points in 54 games is not impressive offensively and the Oilers need more offence coming from the back end.
A plus 18 is all well and good in the KHL but this is the NHL and he hasn't shown that he can play well defensively over here. Again, if you can sign him for a mil or less and he can prove he can play over here then fine but his stats aren't exactly stellar.
I'll take him.
ReplyDeleteWhat'll it cost, LT?
Trevor Robb,
ReplyDelete8gp, 0-4-4 +6 is a bad playoffs?
Morey Gare is of course Renney's brother-in-law but does precede Renney's employment with the org by quite some time and also the Roloson trade.
ReplyDeleteI love the blotter comments. great for a smile. I am thinking Grebs would command 2.5 to 3.0 million with his track record. If v 3.0 truly wants to compete for the playoffs next years, some quality NHL players are required.
ReplyDeleteCalis.. is that what was on the blotter??
Sounds like there's been another reactor explosion in Japan..
ReplyDeleteThe sound of a blast was heard Tuesday morning at the troubled No. 2 reactor of the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, the government said.
The incident occurred at 6:10 a.m. and is feared to have damaged the reactor's pressure-suppression system, the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said, citing a report from the plant's operator Tokyo Electric Power Co.
Sorry, the above is from NHK.
ReplyDeleteLT,
ReplyDeleteAny idea about his contract situation, If I remember correctly, he signed a three year deal in the KHL. does he have an nhl outclause in his contract?
or am i misremembering?
LT,
ReplyDeleteHow's this for a depth chart?
1. Whitney
2. Gilbert
3. Grebeshkov
4. Smid
5. Petry
6. Peckham
7. Foster
AHL Top 2(3)D: Chorney, Plante, (Larsson)
Lets you rotate Foster in and out with the kids if you think they need to watch from the PB for a night and Chorney/Plante get to work on their game until they are closer to NHL-ready. Make Larsson earn his NHL icetime, no need to rush him if they are throwing the season for another lottery pick.
It's certainly not anything head-turning. I get the whole plus/minus stat, but the Oilers need someone who can score from the point. Foster/Gilbert have struggled and have not been suitable replacements for Souray/Visnovsky. I don't hate Grebeshkov but zero goals in eight games does not say "offensive defenceman" to me.
ReplyDeleteYou have to give Petry and Chorney an honest look before you even think of bringing Grebeshkov over.
That said, I was a supporter of Grebs when he was here and I will like it if the Oilers bring him back!
ReplyDeleteOur cap payroll for next year is around 37 mil which is less than the floor, so Oilers will have to sign players, lets see who they sign.
My FA targets would be
Laich
Upshall
Wisnieski
as far as i can find, its a 2 year deal, so it will depend on his out-clause
ReplyDeleteTR,
ReplyDeleteWhat we know about his last season is that he was the top scoring Defender on his team, top 2 in TOI and first in +/-. I don't think thats underwhelming enough to suggest that he has regressed or anything.
1. Whitney
ReplyDelete2. Gilbert
3. Grebeshkov
4. Petry
5. Smid
6. Peckham
7. Larsson/Chorney/Plante
I agree with the chart.
Grebs played the right side with Vis a bunch, so you know he can do it. Not optimal, but his being LH is not a good reason not to sign him.
I just don't think v3.0 is looking to sign anyone of value other than place holders regardless of what he says.
I'll have to see it before I believe it.
As per Grebs' Wiki page:
After becoming a free agent on July 1, 2010 Grebeshkov signed a two year deal with SKA St. Petersburg of the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL), four weeks later. He noted that he wanted to stay in the NHL and received several offers, but the offers he received were for 30 to 40 percent lower than his 2009-10 salary and he did not want to take that big of a pay-cut
I can't find out what he makes.
He also looks like he's signed through next year.
I supose it depends on the money. There isn't any reason that Grebeskov couldn't be a second pairing defenseman and an entirely defensible choice for one. How much you need to pay him in order to bring him is the question..I like him at multiple years at 2.5 a year or less. I'm leery about it getting above three million.
ReplyDeleteHe's probably not too different from what we remember. Flawed, but decent and better than most of what we have.
ReplyDeleteThe TSN article on his KHL signing back in July 2010 suggested the offer he got there was more than the 3.15M he got from Edm/Nas.
ReplyDeleteWasn't the issue with Grebeshkov that his qualifying
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't call that a good playoffs and that's when it matters.
Clutch! Clutch! Clutch!
You know what I hate? Sample sizes.
8gp, 0-4-4 +6 is a bad playoffs?
That's a better rebuttal, but I really like chanting "clutch!" at people.
What we know about his last season is that he was the top scoring Defender on his team, top 2 in TOI and first in +/-. I don't think thats underwhelming enough to suggest that he has regressed or anything.
CLUTCH! CLUTCH! CLUTCH!
Oh, and on the subject of the post, I'd be happy to have Grebeshkov back, but not if it's going to take $3 million.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Grebeshkov has top 3 potential and I really like Peckham/Petry/Smid in our bottom 3.
ReplyDelete1. Whitney
2. Gilbert
3. Foster
4. Smid
5. Peckham
6. Petry
7.Chorney/Plante
I haven't liked Foster's play, it would be ideal if you can get an upgrade via trade/UFA but either way is Grebeshkov really the answer? I'm not so sure.
Sorry, the first paragraph of the first paragraph should have read "Wasn't the issue with Grebeshkov that his qualifying offer was too high, and not that his arbitration offer would have been? Or is one a subset of the other? And if so, which is a subset of which?"
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I have to go - I promised Jim Matheson I'd have this blotter back by midnight.
Does it matter what he's paid? Assuming the cap doesn't drop, that Edmonton builds at Kevin Lowe's prescribed speed, and the term is just 1 or 2 years?
ReplyDeleteHow many non-shooting Dmen are we planning for the top 3 next year? Three?
ReplyDeleteTR,
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying that Grebs is the answer to all problems. There are probably better UFA options out there. I think he would be a passable choice. You can never have enough depth. I would rather have the kids get their chances when injuries hit, than pencil in the kids from Day 1.
http://en.khl.ru/stat/players/186/all/3552/
ReplyDeleteGrebs is having a nice playoff. The other guy is getting the PP and looks like he deserves it.
the 3.15M he got from Edm/Nas.
ReplyDeleteHe was an RFA at 3.15 and wasn't qualified and therefore became a UFA. Any offers from NHL teams didn't have to be 3.15 or higher since he wasn't qualified.
More likely he was offered 2-2.5 and is making around 3.
NOTE: I could have lost $5K on Grebs not being offered. *whew*
Spoiler: Kurtis Foster is a shooting D-man and he still sucks on the PP.
ReplyDeleteGrebeshkov scored 7 goals in both his last NHL campaigns and both were cut short. First to 70 the other to 55. We're at 70 games right now.
And there's only 26 defenders with higher than 7 goals. A great bunch of team being team cornerstones.
Grebeshkov is a pretty decent offensive d-man, even if his shot isn't that great.
If Souray is off the books this summer, I'd be all for it.
ReplyDeleteDenis made $3,150,000 last year, and is supposedly making more than that in Russia, supposedly for what I recall is a 2 year deal.
So:
1) Would the Oilers be willing to pay the same or more than his 2009-10 salary to bring him back?
2) Would they be able to get around his 2 year KHL contract?
Doesn't seem too likely...
SS-iirc
ReplyDeleteHis qo had to be 100% of his current contract at the time-about 3.1 ish...and then add term on top of that.An arbitrator could have ruled anything.
I think we need a couple of Willie Mitchell's and not Grebeshkov,but given the alternative that Tambi does nothing with the current D corps I wouldn't mind bringing him back.And showerhead is correct,his dollar value shouldn't really matter,as long as it's 1 or 2 year deals.Move him at the end of his contract for a draft pick and bring in somebody else.
Does it matter what he's paid? Assuming the cap doesn't drop, that Edmonton builds at Kevin Lowe's prescribed speed, and the term is just 1 or 2 years?
ReplyDeleteApparently you haven't heard: we have an owner who's vowed to spend to the cap every year.
I'm with Gerta. Our problem is defence. Grebs doesn't strike me as the right fit defensively, nor will he be much help to the PP. He's signed in Russia for another year... Pass.
ReplyDeleteThe dollar value would be important when you have to start signing other D-men. Salaries aren't negotiated in a vacuum for better or worse. You start a series of bad signings and it gets away from you. I don't see Tambi doing this like Lowe did 2006-2008 but who knows.
ReplyDeletespOILer,
ReplyDeleteMorey's been around for a long time, but I think he has only been head scout pro since Pendergrast left.
He somehow escaped the Tambellean cleaning of the Augean Stables.
Maybe he hand cuffed himself to Vish's ankle?
When Prendergast moved up, so did Gare.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=2a2a30cf-07f5-4d15-a917-a15816aed99b
Igor Ulanov is looking for work.'
ReplyDeleteJeebus.
TR
ReplyDeleteFoster would not be the third D man on OKC's depth chart
Thanks for the info LT, I thought Pendergast had something to do with it, but picked the wrong movement.
ReplyDeleteAbout to go to bed, but we should look at all pro acquisitions since the summer of 2008.
"tingsato" - how I pronounce Tsingtao after having about 6 of them.
Frankly, I am not sure I'd take Grebs over Vandermeer - or Staios.
ReplyDeleteWe have a flotilla of finesse Dmen. We need a couple of defence first guys capable of busting some heads.
I guess I could get behind signing and then flipping him at the deadine, but I'm not sure you get much of anything for him if he is earning $3 million.
Pass.
Woodguy
ReplyDeleteDo you know if the Oilers draft Larsson, if he plays in the AHL next year will that count towards his ELC?
If it does, unlike Hall, it may make sense to leave him in the SEL for a year to develop his offence. Various people are saying his offence has suffered as they moved him from the third pairing also giving him pp time to the second pairing giving him more pk time and very little pp time. Assuming Rundblad makes it over to Ottawa next year that would free up Larsson to get his pp time back.
If he has a great year there, maybe we could bring him to the AHL for the final nine games so he doesn't use up any ELC years
Do you know if the Oilers draft Larsson, if he plays in the AHL next year will that count towards his ELC?
ReplyDeleteI believe that his situation would be analogous to MPS's, and I don't think MPS would have burnt an ELC year in the AHL.
But I'm not certain of any of this, making this post effectively useless. It's how I roll.
I agree with Ducey
ReplyDeleteThis team seems to play well when they have a puck mover with a gronk. Gilbert-Peckham or Gilbert-smid, and Petry-Smid or Petry-Peckham both work well as bottom 4 pairings. What the d needs to look like a real NHL team is someone who is a tough veteran who can play with Whitney on a number one pairing. Bieksa would be perfect but there is no way he would come here unless the Oilers pay him over $5 million or something stupid.
Mind you if they can get rid of Foster somehow, his current pay plus Vandermeer's is pretty close to $5 million. Sign Bieksa and tell him if they are out of the playoffs at the deadline they will trade him to a contender. IF they are in , great!
To me Grebs was a turnover machine with a good first pass and good pp passing but not much of a shooter. Terrible on the PK, just like Vis, which is why I don't think Vis deserves the Norris.
I am all about bringing back some recent oilers. I think that Jan Hejda, Pisani and patrick Thoreson make us markedly better than we are. Reddox-Thoreson-Pisani would be a very servicable 3rd line and I suspect you would be looking at < 5million total for that third line
ReplyDeleteAgreed. I would be much more interested in Hejda over Grebs.
ReplyDeletemestiomp: take that, you biatch.
Not getting Denis back when he was dirt cheap was utterly stupid. I would hope he'd even be open to considering returning now. If so, then yes, sign him to a reasonable deal.
ReplyDeleteAsset-free acquisitions are the best kind.
It's been a while since I've taken an accounting course, but I could've sworn that money was an asset.
ReplyDeleteQuestion for the Desjardins fans out there:
ReplyDeleteWhich leagues have the highest NHLE? Am I right that it is KHL, SEL, AHL? Or is there another one higher than AHL in there like Finland or something? And how much better is the SEL than the AHL?
ALso wondering how accurate NHLE is in comparing junior leagues. Would be nice to use it to compare RNH with Strome, Couturier and Huberdeau.
SS: Well when you have full of that asset and you don't plan on using it for anything else...
ReplyDeleteSteve - was trying to invent some sort of pseudo-technical term.
ReplyDeleteBack to the drawing board.
According to Reynolds here, it's KHL, SEL, FNL, AHL. The previous off-season, SEL was apparently ahead of KHL.
ReplyDelete(I got this from googling, and I make no representations that I have the foggiest damned idea what I'm talking about. The preceding was not legal advice.)
SS: Well when you have full of that asset and you don't plan on using it for anything else...
ReplyDeleteTypical auditor's report: "Company X closed the year with $3 million in liquidity. Because that seems like quite a bit, I've booked it as $1.5 million to account for diminishing returns."
(As should be apparent to anybody who's tried to engage me before, I'm not trying to make any kind of point here. As should be apparent to anyone who knows anything about accounting, I can't really remember how audit reports are written. The preceding also wasn't legal advice.)
SS: So what's your exact position?
ReplyDeleteIt seems like a reasonable signing. Given we flush the tall guy who can't shoot at a net, we get a pick and a real defender for 1-2M$ more.
At worst: We traded Grebs for a 2nd, Idk why we couldn't do it again.
(Part 1)
ReplyDeleteSS: So what's your exact position?
My exact position in this, as with most things, is that I have very little of substance to contribute, so I'm going to waltz around emitting my lovely little jackasseries.
Now, to directly contradict my preceding paragraph, here's what I think about the possibility of signing Denis Grebeshkov:
1. Unsurprisingly, everybody sees the cap hit cost: if we sign Grebeshkov for $3 million, that's $3 million we can't use on other players, reducing the total amount of quality we can have on the payroll. The assumption around here, which I share, seems to be that the Oilers aren't going to be close to a cap team next year or probably the year after, so cap hit costs can generally be viewed as irrelevant (I mean, we wouldn't want to sign Grebeshkov for $15 million, but at any number we might actually be considering it shouldn't pose a problem).
2. There is also the direct financial cost. We often ignore that, because it's not easy to assess: while there is certainly some theoretical maximum to what Katz is willing to spend on players - that is, there is a point at which every real dollar we spent on Grebeshkov is one we couldn't spend elsewhere - we don't know what that point is. It's probably fair to assume that that point is well above what we're currently spending, and that it's therefore safe to disregard real financial cost, but we don't know for sure. It could be that Katz sees us as a losing team for the next couple of years, and doesn't want to spend much on a losing team, in which case that cost is relevant. The cut in (some) season ticket prices lends a little support to that hypothesis. I suspect that that hypothesis is incorrect, but I'm saying that we don't know, so we can't just throw Katz's money around cavalierly.
3. There is also the opportunity cost (well, there are several opportunity costs, including the ones mentioned above, but I'm too lazy to think of a more specific name for this one). Suppose we agree on the principle of overpaying a UFA defenseman $3 million to improve our defense next year. Even if we agree on that principle, which presumes that points 1 and 2 are not barriers, we still need to ask ourselves whether Denis Grebeshkov is the best UFA defenseman we could spend $3 million on. I have no idea whether he is, in part because I don't know what it would take to lure him or other UFA defensemen here (and also because I'm too lazy to even look at a list of impending UFA defensemen). But that's another cost to signing Grebeshkov to a $3 million contract, unless we assume that Katz is willing to give $3 million to any and all UFA defenseman of Grebeshkov's ability or higher who would accept the offer. But that doesn't seem likely.
(Part 2)
ReplyDelete4. Even if Katz is willing to do that, we're only allowed fifty contracts. If we sign Grebeshkov to that contract, the question isn't just "is Grebeshkov worth $3 million?", it's "is Grebshkov at $3 million in our best fifty (or forty-seven, if we want to keep some contracts open for flexibility) available contracts?" I think we're sort of working on the assumption that it's either the status quo or the status quo plus Grebeshkov, which is probably pretty reasonable given the management's tendency to let holes fester for a few seasons before trying half-heartedly to fill them with Colin Fraser, but we don't actually know that. Anyway, the Oilers probably aren't going to sign Grebeshkov, but we're considering the possibility that we will; don't we have to consider all of the other things that they could do but probably won't, as well?
5. Finally, there's the roster opportunity cost: if we're putting Grebeshkov somewhere in our organization, that takes up a roster spot that we can't use elsewhere. That's probably not a concern here, since we're not exactly flush with legitimate NHL defensemen, but it's a consideration (And actually, we're not so much short on NHL defensemen as we are short on top 5 NHL defensemen - there's some possibility that signing Grebeshkov would force us to unload a legitimate 6-7 guy, either by stuffying him in the minors or trading him. That might be a problem or it might not be, but it has to be considered.
My position is that, once all of the above is considered, Grebeshkov at $3 million probably isn't a good deal. But that's a pretty off-the-top-of-my-head position.
Shros: not sure what they are, but they come somewhere between bros and that other word that's probably too impolite to use at a family blog.
Steve: Well as far as value goes, 40 points defenseman usually get signed for more money than Grebs.
ReplyDeleteIdk why he got the shaft.
I think a part of the equation is: 3M$ dollar defenseman who will sign here.
I don't think we can mind bumping guys like Macintyre off the roster, and 50 contract thingy. Not like Grebs was a horrible hockey player, or had no potential to be a future part of the franchise.
Steve: Well as far as value goes, 40 points defenseman usually get signed for more money than Grebs.
ReplyDeleteThere were 24 defensemen to score at least 40 points in the NHL last year (Grebs wasn't among them - even prorated over a full, uninjured season, he was only on pace for 34). Of those 24, eight were on RFA contracts (non-ELC contracts that they signed as RFAs, I mean, like Grebs would have been this season). Here are their cap hits from last year:
Green: $5.25M
Weber: $4.5M
Pitkanen: $4M
Enstrom: $3.75M
Edler: $3.25
Ehrhoff: $3.1M
Keith: $1.475M
Yandle: $1.2M
So yeah, they do usually sign for more than $3 million. But every one of those guys outscored Grebeshkov by a significant margin on a per game basis, and most of them are also more defensively reliable (I think - I haven't checked the microstats, so I could be mistaken there). I think the Oilers were right not to qualify him, and I don't think he's worth $3 million on the current NHL market (though, as we all know, the Oilers usually have to overpay).
At this point, I'd welcome more or less any move that would improve the defensive corps, but I don't think Grebeshkov at $3 million is the optimal one.
I don't think we can mind bumping guys like Macintyre off the roster, and 50 contract thingy. Not like Grebs was a horrible hockey player, or had no potential to be a future part of the franchise.
I agree on MacIntyre, of course, and on your assessment of Grebeshkov. But letting MacIntyre (and Strudwick and maybe Vandermeer, though that would just open up another need) walk as UFAs would free up some spots. But then we've got several juniors who'll need their first pro contracts, and I suspect we're looking at qualifying most of our RFAs. Then if we want to renew/replace Giroux-Moran-Gerber UFA types (as it stands, the Barons' tandem next year would probably be Roy-Pitton, right?), that's more contracts...I wouldn't be sanguine about it. There's certainly room for the Oilers to sign some free agents, but I don't think were at the point where we don't need to consider it as an opportunity cost.
Things I discovered while researching the above comment: Kurtis Foster was apparently born in a place called "Carp".
ReplyDelete(Foster was one of the twenty-four who managed forty points last year, incidentally, and commanded well under $3M even as a UFA. Though still too much.)
Okay, I'm going to bed. My impending silence should not be taken as conceding anything. Nor is it legal advice.
Woodguy nails it as usual.
ReplyDeleteGreb/Souray/Gilbert/Visnovsky was one of the most astonishing puck moving defences I've ever seen - with kack-handed forwards to do nothing with the puck = useless team.
But now OIlers are a perennial lottery chaser it's not going to happen.
Trevor Robb said...
ReplyDelete@LoweTide http://en.khl.ru/players/11/
I wouldn't call that a good playoffs and that's when it matters.
And.....
17 points in 54 games is not impressive offensively and the Oilers need more offence coming from the back end.
I'm not sure you realize that in the KHL they don't count secondary assists Robb.
By any metric Grebeshkov had an excellent season, and you know every one of his points was either a goal or a primary assist. His stats would be a lot more padded with secondary assists.
Not many defencemen score a lot of goals, and in his NHL time Grebs was easily in the top 25 for goals scored by a defencemen (but then there was that season every went into the elevator shaft).
Also by any metric, 4 primary assists and a plus 7 in 8 playoff games is quality. I don't see how you can criticize the man for not having any goals in those 8 games when his decision making has led to 4 goals. Once again no secondary assist numbers.
The KHL is arguably the 2nd best league in the world, and Grebs is a star there. That doesn't necessarily translate to the NHL as we all know, but he's proven he can deliver in the NHL as an offensive defenseman. He's certainly far superior to Kurtis Foster, and worth 2.5-3 million a year. Offensive d-men are always overvalued, especially one that can run a PP, hell look what Goligoski netted the Pens.
Tradne: [fill in your own interpretation here]
I would love to see Grebs back. Let's do it! He likes Edmonton almost as much as he likes money!
ReplyDeleteOff topic: the organisation and the media have portrayed the lack of positive deadline action as necessary so that we'll have some play money in the summer. I tend to agree with that as a bystander. No one could have expected such an injury run in the last twenty games, so we can't hold that against anybody.
So what does that leave? We knew without Pens we were going to be a weaker team, so the expectation was there that we might be squeaking by the last few games, and that's what we're doing. It is a bit of a shame that people like Harsky (and let's face it, all the rest of the rookies and callups) are getting a tough bounce being thrown into such a weak team during their first games/season in the NHL, but we'll make it to the summer.
So I hate to join the choir, but let's reserve judgement against Steve Tambellini until training camp. If Tamby still looks like he's afraid, unwilling, or unable to provide us with a respectable NHL team next season, then we can shout him down legitimately.
I don't think anyone could honestly say that another 30th place finish was a planned part of the rebuild, so we've got to consider that a screw up. But whose? Not Renney's! Tamby's. Maybe Lowe's too.
Anyway, if by December we're still belly-aching about the same exact things we have been for the past two seasons, then let's hold Tambellini, Lowe, and even Katz accountable.
And for now, let's squander our cap if that's what it takes to play NHL hockey.
judging by the failed attempt to move him this year, is an upgrade on our D in the org already? Souray is slow, but pair him with Whitney (who will cover up a lot) and you get a tough stay at home type with a booming shot. He can PK, PP and when paired with a solid partner is an upgrade on everyone on our roster except for Whitney and Gilbert.
ReplyDeleteWhitney-Souray
Gilbert-Smid
Petry-Peckham
Not world beaters, but a better balance, and Souray brings a lot of what we are missing. the question becomes whether, ego's aside, can he play in the bigs with us? Because if you plan on trying to move him again, he needs to play in the NHL in order to establish some value for a trade.
Coachpb sent me a few links about Grebs' contract.
ReplyDeleteNo one names a number but the speculation is around $3MM.
The contract is a 70/30 contract where 70% is guaranteed and 30% is dependent on playoff performance.
As per Yahoo Sports:
"The contract is for two years on standard terms. It shows once again that modern hockey players clearly understand why this contract structure is in effect this year. There were no objections from Grebeshkov as to why the contract is a ‘70-30.'"
[According to the new KHL CBA, players get 70 percent of their contracts paid for the regular season, and the other 30% subject to club's playoff performance.]
Also,
Frankly, I am not sure I'd take Grebs over Vandermeer - or Staios.
Ducey also prefers 1978 Vegas and 1982 Datsun 210 over a 2002 Acura.
The Oilers have exactly two NHL Dmen who can make a first good pass with high consistency to their speedy forwards. 6 & 77. 58 may get there, but he's not there yet.
If you like the pairing of one finesse guy to one physical guy, you still need 1 more finesse guy on the Oilers to make this work.
I have also been on the "overpay Bieksa for 2-3 years bandwagon since Christmas. I may have started it. Big RH guy who can play top pairing minutes with 6.
oilfans,
"SS" is right. As per capgeek:
If a player aged 18 or 19 signs an entry-level contract with a club (with his age calculated on Sept. 15 of the year he signed the contract) but does not play in at least 10 NHL games, the contract will "slide" or be extended one year. The extension does not apply if the player turns 20 between Sept. 16 and Dec. 31 in the year he signed the contract.
Depending on the contract's structure, the player's cap hit can be affected either by an increase or a decrease. Players who sign at age 18 can have their contract extended (or "slide") two seasons.
CBA reference: Section 9.1 (d) (P. 23-24)
The reason you don't see this done with kids who have played in the CHL is because at 18 and 19 years old they are not eligible to play in the AHL due to the CHL/NHL agreement.
I'd take Larsson and put him in the AHL to start, and probably for a year, and let the ELC slide one year.
Dunno if anyone cares but it sounds like an absolute tragedy is continuing to unfold in Japan.
ReplyDeleteMarkets getting spanked all across the world.
I'm well-positioned but sheesh, I wouldn't wish this on anyone. Hockey seems awfully unimportant right now.
There are 50 brave Japanese heroes who have volunteered to stay behind to cool the cores and the spent rods in an effort to save the nation and likely the entire Pacific Rim from disaster... amazing men.
I'd be cool with Grebeshkov. To be honest, he was one of my more favorite players, despite his short comings. Sucked to see him traded!
ReplyDeleteIf he were paired with Peckham, Petry or Smid, we might be able to get good use from him.
Gilbert-Whitney
ReplyDeleteSouray-Grebeshkov
Smid-Peckham
That would be a serviceable top 6. Not sure what it'd take to get Grebs out of his KHL contract though if it doesn't have an out clause. Greb's agent said they weren't willing to sacrifice his prime earning years as well so one would think it'd take 2.5-3 to get him back. He also said that they did a 2 year contract to leave the window open for a return to the NHL which might be more favorable after the new CBA is hammered out.
The Oilers have exactly two NHL Dmen who can make a first good pass with high consistency to their speedy forwards. 6 & 77. 58 may get there, but he's not there yet.
ReplyDeleteYou have forgotten Ladi Smid. He has improved significantly in the last 1/2 of the season by my eye*. He still isn't showing much offense, but he has no trouble carrying/ moving the puck out of his own zone.
You have Whitney, Gilbert, and Smid as your "puck movers". Petry and Peckham need a spot, and possibly Larssen. They are going to have to keep Foster too.
Grebs has likely done all right in the KHL but surely you recognize its a different game. Grebs was always weak when forechecked hard and he wasn't going to move anyone in front of the net.
Adding Grebs to what we have just assures us that we will continue to have one of the softest teams in the league.
I'd rather have Vandermeer as the 7th defenseman to spot in for injuries/ rookies and add some much needed grit.
*in the Steve "Caveat" Smith tradition, I'll add in I don't have any stats to back this improvement up, but I will also add in that I don't know which stats would isolate the period since the all star game anyway, and even if there were any, it would be hard to seperate Smid's performance from the miserable performance of the team.
Also, I don't know that Grebs is a 2002 Acura but if he is, he's the base model. It's got a yellow streak on the back, runs unevenly in traffic, and doesn't do well in corners.
Ehhh....Pass.
ReplyDeleteHe's totally not going back to Russia. He loves playing here. He said so!
Dean Millard has an interesting post up on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at Coming Down the Pipe....
ReplyDelete2 NHL GM's, who have a very good chance of ending up in the NHL draft lottery have said they would take the Red Deer Rebel first overall. This I have from a very good and credible scouting source. Another high placed scout thought if RHN reached the 30 goal mark it would be enough to convince whoever has the first overall pick to take him. Right now he's at 28, with 2 games to go (@Edm Fri, Vs. Edm Sat) this season.
Jake: good point about contracts in a vacuum. There's no guarantee other players could successfully leverage a Grebs overpay with 4.0 but it's certainly a possibility worth considering.
ReplyDeleteWhat surprises me is that so many people would be willing to pass up on Grebeshkov for stylistic reasons alone. He's head and shoulders better than so much of the current roster on D that he could skate out there in a tutu and it would still make the Oilers a better hockey team.
Adding Grebs to what we have just assures us that we will continue to have one of the softest teams in the league.
ReplyDeleteI'd rather have Vandermeer as the 7th defenseman to spot in for injuries/ rookies and add some much needed grit.
Soft shmoft
Yes, a Montador-like guy would be nice, But
Lets get 23 fuckin’ hockey players in here for once and see what happens.
Keeping unsoft Strudwick and adding unsoft Vandermeer didn’t help much.
Though I agree having Vandermeer as the 7th wouldn’t be a bad idea.
Whitney- Grebeshkov
Smid- Gilbert
Peckham- Petry
Vandermeer
Move Foster for whatever he’d bring
Ladi Smid. He has improved significantly in the last 1/2 of the season
I wonder if Grebeshkov is still improving?
Of course, the whole point is mute if Grebs can’t get out of his KHL contract this summer.
Is unchil the opposite of chill out?
So I hate to join the choir, but let's reserve judgement against Steve Tambellini until training camp. If Tamby still looks like he's afraid, unwilling, or unable to provide us with a respectable NHL team next season, then we can shout him down legitimately.
ReplyDeleteThat might make sense if we were judging Tambellini based on his deadline performance. We're judging Tambellini on a whole lot more data than that.
Nah. Find some good defensemen instead.
ReplyDeletespOIL - Amazing men indeed. Good luck to them. I hope there are some seriously brilliant people working out a solution to this.
ReplyDeleteLots of love for Grebs
ReplyDeleteMy recollection of him was that he was a turn over machine that Mac T persevered with.
He had a "purple patch" and we all fell in love with him many clammering for Management to lock him up on a long term contract.
Then the wheels fell off of his game again and we were pretty happy to get up a second round pick for him.
This seems a bit like going out with a girl you have previously broken up with, because you remember the good times, only to re visit the reasons you broke up in the first place.
2 NHL GM's, who have a very good chance of ending up in the NHL draft lottery have said they would take the Red Deer Rebel first overall.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. For some reason, I don't think that one of those GM's is Tambo. Why?
a) Matheson, who probably has some connections with Oilers scouts, has been pimping Larssen for two years;
b)Tambo likely has not made up his mind;
c)Tambo doesn't ever tell the media anything - he kept the Hall pick under wraps pretty well;
d)Tambo is tending to favour size and grit.
Assuming its not EDM, there might be some trade down opportunities.
Tencer twits...
ReplyDeleteTeemu Hartikainen here at practice, sporting #56. Theo Peckham returns to practice. Horcoff, Brule and Jacques are all absent...
Good to hear Peckham is making his way back. Not so good to hear that the others injuries may be of some concern.
Tencer...
ReplyDeleteJacques leaves the rink with a boot cast on and using crutches...bad sign.
Grebs plays on a team that is owned by a Russian oligarch who is one of the richest men in the world. The team is located in one of Russia's biggest and most consmopolitan cities, and is stacked with talent and making a strong playoff run. He has another year to go on his contracts, and KHL contracts are generally tax free, making them 30%+ more valuable than an equivalent contract in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteIt seems improbable to me that he somehow plays in Edmonton next season.
The Oilers will certainly have cap room for Grebs. And I'm a big Grebs fan. Would love to see him back just for fun.
ReplyDeleteBut to be honest, what the Oilers really need is a top 2 guy to drop everyone down the depth chart, not a guy -like Grebs- who makes more sense as a 3,4,5.
Although adding both Grebs and a top pairing guy is affordable and ideal.
But then again, there may be better options than Grebs, too.
Maybe we can agree on this: We are in favor of spending to the cap on 1-2 year overpays starting this offseason, and Grebs is a decent option, though maybe not the best, in that strategy.
Jacques leaves the rink with a boot cast on and using crutches...bad sign.
ReplyDeleteStruds will likely play the wing to replace him, but they still short two forwards, are they not?
Cogs - MPS - Eberle
X - Omark - Jones
X - Hartikainen - Reddox
Fraser - Struds - Smac
They need a couple of C's. Maybe O'Marra will return if one of Brule and Horcoff can't go.
Man, that is a sad, sad, lineup.
More Tencer...
ReplyDeleteHorcoff says best case for his injury is 7-10 days...small crack on the outside of one of his bones. Will wear boot cast to heal.
Maybe Grebs fits in as the second top 4 D added in the following plan, based on what we have now and cap space...
ReplyDelete4 Top 6: Hall, Hemsky, Horcoff, Eberle (14.5MM)
1 Bottom 6: Gagner, MPS, Omark, Brule*, Jones** (8.5MM)
Extra Skater:
Reddox (0.75MM)
Top 4 D: Whitney, Gilbert (8MM)
Bottom 3 D: Smid, Peckham, Petry (2.8MM)
Goal: Dubnyk, Khabi (4.5MM)
That's about 39MM dollars committed. (Some guys will need to be waived, dealt, or demoted.)
That means Tamb. will have around 21MM to add two top 6 forwards, two top 4 D, and one bottom 6 forward. Some can be FA's, some trades.
Top 6 Forwards: 8 MM (5 and 3)
Top 4 D: 8.5 MM (5 and 3.5)
Goalie: 3MM
Bottom 6 F: 1.5MM
* Assume Brule can be a bottom 6'er, or at least traded for nothing and replaced in free agency.
** Assume a 2MM deal (blah!)
Is that lineup the worst since the lockout? Seriously, how many lineups have been worse since expansion?
ReplyDeleteIt's an expansion team for sure, but maybe some team had worse injuries at some point.
I can't think of a worse Oiler team, though that team that almost lost 20 in a row was pretty bad.
Maybe we can agree on this: We are in favor of spending to the cap on 1-2 year overpays starting this offseason, and Grebs is a decent option, though maybe not the best, in that strategy.
ReplyDeleteI don't agree with that at all.
Overpays screw up your salary structure for a good long time. They impact what your other players will make.
No one is going to want these guys at the deadline as they are overpays.
Bringing in a bunch of high priced FA's may improve the team, but this team has so many holes and such inexperience, that improvement will be marginal (see the Leafs). All you get is a few more wins, no playoffs, and a worse draft position.
I'd be more in favour of bringing a bunch of overlooked guys like Clarke MaCarther or Raffi Torres or Morrison were this fall. Guys who don't have a range of options, come cheap, and can be moved at the deadline for picks when some of the kids from the farm are ready to come up.
PHX a few yrs ago did well with these type of guys out of necessity. The Jays follow this strategy and have been rewarded with good years from John Buck, Bautista, Shawn Camp and others.
Oilers tweet...
ReplyDeleteGagner notes that the timeline of his injury is 3 months.
Grebs - Meh - Isn't there enough chaos on the Oiler blue?
ReplyDeleteThere will be options out there who are be better all-round D and will get you better bang for your buck.
UFA D:
Ed Jovanovski
Andrei Markov
Bryan McCabe
Scott Hannan
Eric Brewer
Tomas Kaberle
Joni Pitkanen
Kevin Bieksa
Sami Salo
James Wisniewski
Christian Ehrhoff
Jonathan Ericsson
Ian White
Steve Staios
Jim Vandermeer
Hal Gill
Nic Wallin
Craig Rivet
Brent Sopel
Jan Hejda
Kent Huskins
Shane O'Brien
Steve Montador
Anton Babchuk
Sean O'Donnell
Whitney - Hejda
ReplyDeleteGilbert - White
Smid - Vandermeer
Peckham / Petry / Larrson when injuries happen
Have to get rid of Foster - just have to
It's time to get some depth on D so we never ever have to see the slowest D line up ever assembled ever again:
Gilbert - Vandermeer
Smid - Strudwick
Foster - Plante
Still think somebody should be fired for this...poor Gilbert
I'd love for the Oilers attempt a run at Erricson or Ehrhoff for a longer term, but why would they sign here for anything less than a reidiculous overpay?
ReplyDeleteJust to compare how bad the Oilers D lineup was versus one of the best D lineups in the league:
ReplyDeletePronger - Timonen
Carle - Meszaros
O'Donnell - Coburn
Tencer...
ReplyDeleteAles Hemsky to have surgery on a labrum tear in his shoulder...out for the year.
My prediction for next year taking the following into account:
ReplyDelete- the price of season tickets won't be increased
- we know 83 was on the table because the puppet was so brazen to say as night the night of deadline day
- Matty's saying 83-plus-LA's pick as an effort to move into the top 10 this june.
- 27 was moved for nothing that was out-of-the-box ready or real.
D: 6-77-49-58-Larsson-5-43
I would like 2 to return as the 7th D but I think he'll have no trouble getting a team on a real team if his price comes down and it should. Teubert's gonna be the first call-up and if he's ready then 5's back on the block because what was it 27 said about his trade, "well, they already traded me once."
So, that goes for 5 and 13 for that matter.
Forwards:
4-10-14
91-89-23
Hamilton-13-28
TH-???-85
I've left the last centre spot open for the hope they'll get someone who can win a draw but it could very well be Lander who gets the call. 91 had a lot more expectations attached to him and if they didn't think he needed the A then the same could go for Lander. Hey, let's write the next meme for the Edm media: the Oilers love Swedes with 91-23-Larsson-Lander and they are following the Det model in this regard.
I think TH and Hamilton make the club because they are big and they grind and there's a new old emphisis on that and to that extend I think 22's one of the extra forwards but that doesn't matter a lot, now does it.
Goalie: DD-KH
KH will be in no-man's land because the Oilers will no longer believe in him but they won't be able to get rid of him, either. He might split the time down the middle with DD.
Rightly or wrongly - and everyone knows how I feel about this - the Oilers believe the way to go is even younger and to throw a away an established returns that guys like 27-83 would bring. I don't like the approach because now the three kids have to be as good as 27-83 and we're expecting more kids to be as good as 4-14.
But I think that's clearly the way they're going and they're full speed ahead for another gutter season in 2012.
Ducey
ReplyDeleteCompletely agree. You cannot possibly expect guys like Hall and Eberle so sign value contracts when their ELCs are up if they've seen UFA veterans paid way above market rate. Has any team ever succeeded with strategy of overpaying guys short term mercenaries who only come for the money and then trying to sign the guys they want to build around to value deals?
It also sends a message that Edmonton is such shitty city and desperate organisation that they'll pay way above the odds for players who will condescend to join them for a year or two. That is not the way to build a cup contender. It just isn't.
Dennis,
ReplyDeleteI think 83 might be back. A lot of GM's were already leery of his injury history. They will likely want to see him return from labrum surgery.
The hit was so slight that caused the injury that I am starting to believe his career is going to be a lot shorter than normal.
I expect he will get traded at the trade deadline - if by some miracle he is healthy.
Hemsky was playing hurt (shoulder) coming from last season....*sigh*.
ReplyDeleteThe injuries to Hemsky and Gagner mean they will be back in the fall, I think we can bet on that.
ReplyDeleteThat dream of getting another first to package with the LA first and move into the top ten is pretty well dead without either of them in a package I think.
But Pat, what about The Plan? Aren't we supposed to stick to The Plan, come hell or high water?
ReplyDeleteGregor mentioned Lander possibly going to the AHL to finish the year and help while we are forced to have 3 of them with the big club to finish out the season. I think he might be able to play in the playoffs as well just like the college signing since would play on a new deal.
ReplyDeleteI know this has been beaten to death in some ways, but I need to ask in order to be reminded if there was actually an answer:
ReplyDeleteWhy in hell, if the "Plan" was set to take "4 to 6 years" are any of our ELC players in the lineup this season?
Stupidity done so well it's virtually art.
Ducey,
ReplyDeleteOverpays screw up your salary structure for a good long time.
I said 1-2 years, which is, by definition, short term. We have cap space now because the kids are on their ELC's. So, use it and try to win.
They impact what your other players will make.
No, they won't. UFA's don't say, "I need 6MM to sign in Edmonton, because I need to make more than Horcoff, or Khabi." (This is Traktor's inane thesis) They see what they are offered by different clubs, then they think about where they want to play, then they sign. It's the same process with RFA's, but it's complicated by offer sheets, playing in other leagues, and qualifying offers. Jealousy and "but he got this much" aren't going to enter into the negotiation, and there's no reason to believe that they ever did. (How much players of a similar ability make on average, league wide, surely does enter into the discussion as a starting point.)
No one is going to want these guys at the deadline as they are overpays.
Guys on short term, especially one year deals, have lots and lots of value as rentals at the deadline, even if overpaid. Remember, you only have to pick up what's left on the deal at the deadline. That's why people thought even Vanderemeer might be moveable at the deadline.
Bringing in a bunch of high priced FA's may improve the team, but this team has so many holes and such inexperience, that improvement will be marginal
20MM + in free agents, added to an improved Hall, and Eberle, added to the other pieces here is a playoff contending team. (Especially, if we can improve STs and goaltending, which is easy to do with a vet C, PK'ing D-men, and an average-ish goalie.)
(see the Leafs). All you get is a few more wins, no playoffs, and a worse draft position.
The Leafs tried to build from scratch, and gave away their first round picks while doing it, flly aware that some bad luck would land them in the lottery. I'm not saying to do that. But we can add excellent FA's to compete for the playoffs, now that we will have 3 lottery picks (Hall, Gagner, Larsson), 2 top notch picks (Eberle and MPS) and nearly a dozen other kids in or near to being in the lineup. (Omark, Petry, Peckham, Lander, Hartikainenenen, Hamilton, Pitlick, Marincin, LA's first, our early 2nd, and even Cogs and Smid are all kids and many will be pushing for spots or have spots already.) I mean, how many kids do we need in the org. before we start adding vets in order to build a winning team?
All succesful teams occasionally add veterans by signings and trades. We will need to do that sometime. Unless the plan is to perenially draft players and trade them just as they enter their prime, leaving a team with holes, and with rookies playing competition that can't yet handle. (This has been the strategy for 20 years, with the Pronger year being the only break.)
I'd be more in favour of bringing a bunch of overlooked guys like Clarke MaCarther or Raffi Torres or Morrison were this fall.
I like these guys too, but we will have to pay more to get them. That's why I say 1-2 year overpays. However, I wouldn't expect our management and pro scouting to hit any homeruns in free agency. They just need to make a decent pick up or two.
Here are the top 4 Dmen via TOI (min 40 games played, ranked most to least 5v5 TOI/60) from each of the 6 Division leaders.
ReplyDeleteWEST
VAN
Edler
Erhoff
Hamhuis
Bieksa
Truculent score = 1 Bieksa
DET
Kronwall
Stewart
Ericsson
Lidstrom
Truculent score = 1 Ericsson
SJS
Boyle
Vlasic
Murray
White
Truculent score = 1 Murray
EAST
PHI
Coburn
Carle
Pronger
Mezaros
Truculent score =2 Coburn is big, but not that abusive as a Dman. (score .5), Pronger for sure, Mezaros kinda like Coburn, big but not mean(score .5). Coburn and Pronger are also good Dmen, not just lunkheads who can hit.
Philly has the toughest D in the league.
WAS
Green
Wideman
Carlson
Shultz
Truculent score = .5 Shultz is kinda like Coburn. Big boy, but not a brusier.
BOS
Chara
Seidenburg
Kaberle
Boychuck
Truculent score 2
Boychuck is a tough Dman and fits that mould. Chara is a lot like Pronger where he doesn't throw a ton of hits, but has a mean streak and is tough to play against.
These are the top 4 TOI Dmen for all 6 division leading team.
Not a lot of "brusier" types.
A whole lot of "many tools" types, finesse types, and "good hockey player" types.
The constand din from the crowd for a Dman who will "hit someone!!!" should be a constant din from the crowd for a Dman who will "outplay someone!!!"
More real hockey players who contribute to winning please.
"pusnes" - adv. Good Dmen who don't throw giant body checks are not necessarily pusnes.
I can't imagine that Hemsky and his agent wouldn't take the position that he should be paid more than Horcoff since he's the best player on the team.
ReplyDeleteIf league-wide comparables surely enter into the discussion, I don't see how in-house comparables wouldn't.
You can't just make overpay signings and expect them to exist in a vacuum.
If league-wide comparables surely enter into the discussion, I don't see how in-house comparables wouldn't.
ReplyDeleteSample size. Are you seriously suggesting that every Rangers defenseman better than Redden is going to argue that they should be paid more than him? I wonder how that will go.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSorry, that should be an adjective.
ReplyDeleteAnother fire erupts at Fukushima 4. Rumours that Nikkei might not re-open this week.
ReplyDeleteSorry, that should be an adjective.
ReplyDeleteFrom your example of use, I read it as a plural noun, though I guess it could go either way.
Ingsan: A former Oilers backup in Japan.
Jason Gregor is having Steve Tambellini on in 15-20 minutes. If anyone happens to be near a radio, would they mind listening in and summarizing the interview. I can't be near the radio at the time, so I'm hopeful someone else can do me that favor.
ReplyDeleteThanks in advance if anyone can!
Cf13,
ReplyDeleteImagine buying a house.
You say to the seller, "But I can wait and buy a comparable house next year for less when one comes on the market. If you look, area wide, this is what this sort of house goes for, so that's what you should charge me."
That works. The seller should bring his price down, and will have to bring it down to the market price.
Well, that's how it is with free agents. The price of free agents market wide is influenced by past signings on average of comparable players. (But even that is just a proxy for supply and demand, which are really the driver of prices, obviously.)
Now imagine this. You say to the seller, "Hey, you sold a house to that guy and gave him a great deal. I want a deal like that."
The seller can reply "Yeah, that guy really got a good deal. At the time it seemed like we were getting a good deal, but he really outsmarted us. Moreover, some shit happened that nobody foresaw that made it a better deal for him than we all expected. Nonetheless the price we're offering you is X, and that's a little better the market rate. If you can get a deal as good as the one that dude got, obviously you should and will go for it. But every other seller is going to offer you something similar to what we are."
The point of this silly analogy being that the current rate of a good or service is determined by supply and demand, e.g. by how much people are willing to pay. (With hockey free agency, quality of life and being on a winning team and getting the right minutes matters too. Thus, Edmonton will have to overpay for being cold and shitty and a losing team.) The fact that one person got paid too much in the past just doesn't enter into the equation.
If it does enter into the equation, the GM who is letting it is horrible.
Put it this way: do you think players would sign for less in Edmonton if Horcoff up and retired tomorrow?
LM: it's because the plan changes from week-to-week.
ReplyDeleteIt is laughable that some of you are actually considering Souray back on this team. I was a supporter of his from the get go when he signed here, but it ain't happenin!
ReplyDeleteDennis,
ReplyDeleteI wished the plan changed every week. I wished it had the kind of flexibility where it could react and adapt to things like the rooks being better than expected.
It is the inflexibility of the plan that scares me.
I mean, how many kids do we need in the org. before we start adding vets in order to build a winning team?
ReplyDeletekris, the notion that an overpay on a vet will not impact the cost of a rfa on the team is just plain wrong.
As to the number of kids? Right now we have Hall, Eberle, Omark, Peckham, Petry and MPS. We are about to see TH. Lander and Hamilton etc have not played a game in the NHL. Not all of them are going to make it.
Once these guys have shown they are good NHL players you can get excited. Until then, stockpile some more for the ones that flop.
Speeds,
ReplyDeleteV3.0:
-calling up 3 players tomorrow from OKC.
-Lander not coming over, concentrating on making SWE WC team. No word on contract.
-Injuries are shitty, but give a chance for kids to show what they can do in NHL
-Sucks to be OKC as callups will hurt their playoff chances.
-Mentioned OKC had great coaching and a balanced roster. Didn't mention why the Oilers didn't have same.
"Inotani" - the sunshiney tone v3.0's voice takes on when he's talking about the future of his terrible hockey team.
kris,
ReplyDeleteThe real estate analogy doesn't work because it doesn't capture the dynamic that these guys work at the same job, being paid by the same guy and that everyone knows exactly how much everyone makes.
If you're running a small business and give Employee A a big contract that everyone in the company knows the details of, and then Employee A starts to get very publicly outperformed by Employee B, Employee B is going to bring up Employee A's salary when it's time to renegotiate.
These are competitive guys who absolutely keep score on what everyone else is making and producing.
Even in the case of Redden where things have gotten silly, a Ranger FA is likely still going to bring up the deal at least in terms of what Redden was producing at the time the deal was made.
It's all on the team's record and relevant.
The only way to begin erasing past deals is to fire the guy who made them, and even then it probably still sticks with the org to some degree.
Even in the case of Redden where things have gotten silly, a Ranger FA is likely still going to bring up the deal at least in terms of what Redden was producing at the time the deal was made.
ReplyDeleteAgent: My client is producing at levels similar to what Wayne Redden was producing at when you signed him. Therefore, he deserves a contract in the same neighbourhood.
Glen Sather: Yes, that does seem like the sort of thing I'd want to emulate, doesn't it?
Seriously, neither one of us has any evidence to support our version of how things happen during NHL contract negotiations, but your version is insane.
Ducey,
ReplyDeleteDo you think if the Oilers traded Horcoff, they could sign players for less?
Does this work in both directions. I mean, you seem to think player X won't play in Edmonton for 5MM, even though other teams are only offering 4.65MM, because he is holding out to get more than Horcoff, say, 5.65MM. (On my view this won't happen. The player will take the 5MM, even if it's less than Horcoff, because 5>4.65. That is of course, presuming he doesn't mind Edmonton, but that's not what we're discussing.)
Can we do the opposite, too? If we duff Horcoff or buy him out, can we get players to sign here for less than market value because they would become our highest paid player? Hey, you're getting more than Hemsky at 4.25MM. I know other teams are offering you market value of 4.8MM, but if you sign here, you'll be so proud of being paid more than Hemsky, even though you're probably not quite as good.
Either way, it's insane.
Prices are determined by supply and demand, not by jealousy over Horcoff's deal.
If I'm strawmanning your view, please explain how I'm wrong, because I don't mean to be rude. Maybe I'm missing your point.
WG: so, TH in for Giroux and we're still calling up three more?
ReplyDeleteSo, 67 is out - again - along with 10-22?
Fuck, this is getting exactly like the '07 titanic stretch run.
all we need is Bisallion or Young.
NHL players have little in common with market theorists.
ReplyDeleteProfessional jealousy exists in every walk of life, and few professions attract more competitive employees than pro sports.
I'm sure most of us have read plenty of insider books and articles over the years that referred to athletes being very aware and ticked about what guys they think they're better than are making. I certainly have.
Anyone who doesn't think Hemsky thinks he deserves to be paid more than Horc is insane. I'm not saying he would refuse to sign for less if he had to, but it's definitely coming up in the negotiation.
Comparables matter, and comparables you play with every night matter a lot.
cf13,
ReplyDeleteIn most labor negotiations, for those of us with low paying jobs that we can't afford to leave, it's hard for you as an individual to know what you can get if you bargain and threaten to go "UFA." (By UFA, I mean threaten to quit if you don't get a raise.)
One way you can know is if someone else offers you a job that pays more than your current job. Another way you can know is if you hold out for more money, i.e. th threat to quit. (This has the possibility of you not working, which is less a risk for most NHL'ers.) A third way you can know is if someone similar to you is able to hold out for more money. (This is the case you're worried about.)
But notice, in the NHL, deals are very public and agents and players know what they can get from other teams. Negotiations are sort of public, especially for UFA's, in that you can phone around and find out what your price is, what you can get, and before that you can see what the average price is for your services.
This is disanalagous to your office worker case. Really, this is the problem for most unskilled labor. You can't just offer your services to the highest bidder, because doing so might result in you not having a job at all.
If office worker X can put himself on the open market and take the job with the best offer, then the fact that his friend/colleague got more on the same market won't help him negotiate for more. However, if he can't go on an open market, the fact that his friend earned more, will help him realize he can threaten to leave and the boss might be likely to pay him more.
NHL players have little in common with market theorists.
ReplyDelete1. They have agents
2. There are millions of dollars at stake. Jealousy matters, but millions of dollars matter more.
3. I might agree that a player who already commands, say, roughly 5.25MM, might be petty enough to not play in Edmonton, because Horcoff makes more. That is, maybe jealousy shifts a few hundred grand here or there, but that's pretty marginal. Nonetheless, there's no way a player thinks about jealousy when jealousy means losing 500k or 1.5MM.
Things seem to be getting pretty intense in here, so I'd just like to point out that this online Q&A with Jeopardy! all-star Ken Jennings is literally the best thing that I have ever read, other than maybe Catch-22.
ReplyDeleteThe constand din from the crowd for a Dman who will "hit someone!!!" should be a constant din from the crowd for a Dman who will "outplay someone!!!"
ReplyDeleteMore real hockey players who contribute to winning please.
WG,
I think you are underestimating the toughness of those defences.
You add Grebs to Whitney, Gilbert, Smid, Peckham and say Petry and its a lot softer than those. Add in the lack of grit and toughness up front and there is a problem.
Grebs can't hit OR outplay the opposition. If there was a GM who felt he could, he wouldn't have had to take his one testicle over to the KHL.
And he sure as hell wouldn't be breaking into the top 4 on any of those defences you listed.
Okay, my last point:
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying he would refuse to sign for less if he had to, but it's definitely coming up in the negotiation.
If his petty jealousy doesn't determine what he will and won't sign, how will it effect his contract? (Teams will offer what is needed to sign him, or they won't offer at all.)
Do you mean it will make him less likely to play in Edmonton if, say, Edmonton and NYI, have the same cash offer on the table? I think we can all agree Edmonton will have to outpay other losing, crappy-city teams. But that's not what we're discussing. We're discussing the effect of, say, Horcoff's overpay on Hemsky's deal. If Edmonton offers more than better teams in happier places, and the same as crappy places, do you think Hemsky will leave his friends and teammates out of Horcoff-jealousy?
Will he avoid and ask more of other teams that also have overpays? "Eww. you paid Finger how much? You're going to have to offer more to assuage my jealousy."
If I'm strawmanning your view, please explain how I'm wrong, because I don't mean to be rude. Maybe I'm missing your point.
ReplyDeleteI probably didn't make sense anyway. Lets try again.
If the Oilers had given (they didn't) a FA contract to Vandermeer at $2.7 million, and Smid is making $1.5 and going to arbitration or about to go UFA, the agent for Smid is going to compare his client to Vandermeer.
In fact, comparing to players on the same team is the easiest thing to do. It eliminates arguments over coaching styles, quality of goalies, linemates, etc.
Plus, if you are the GM and an agent compares his client to an overpay elsewhere, you can say: "well, thats his mistake, I never would have given that player that, I won't pay you that, and I don't think anyone else will either".
Pretty tough to say if you just paid Kris Versteeg $6.5 million a year for 2 years.
Look at the overpays (in terms of length and $) the Oilers have had recently: Souray, Horcoff, and Bulin. Those have not only not worked out, they set a precedent the Oilers are going to be hearing about for a long time.
Anyway, our discussion is moot. The number of worthwhile FA's who are going to take an extra few $ to get their brains beat out on a rebuild is very small. And if they are just coming for the money, do you want them at all?
Kris
ReplyDeleteThe argument is that overpaying mediocre free agents will have the effect of making it harder to resign guys like Eberle, Hemsky and Hall to good value long term contracts because:
- players know how good they are in relation to the other guys on the team
- players know how much the other guys on the team make
- players are generally competitive, have pride and are not total idiots when it comes to money
A player like Hall is less likely to accept a three year $15M contract at the end of his ELC if you've just given Ian White a two year $10M contract because he knows he's at least twice as good as White.
So maybe he asks for a three year $22.5M contract. He might think that's fair - after all if he's twice as good as White he's actually giving them a discount at that price. If Oilers say yes they drive up the price of second contracts for Eberle and MPS - they may not be quite as good as him but they'll think they deserve something in the same ballpark, and the price of buying UFA years in Hall's third contract - he's sure as hell not goign to give up UFA years without a nice raise on $7.5M. If the Oilers say no, they have all the leverage so he'll either have to hold out or play on conrtact that pays less than he thinks he's worth. In either case they severely damage their relationship with their best player since Messier and increase the ychance he'll leave as soon as possible.
Do you really think it's worth running the risk so we can finish 19th next year instead of 25th?
I don't.
Ducey,
ReplyDeleteYou said:
Frankly, I am not sure I'd take Grebs over Vandermeer - or Staios.
We have a flotilla of finesse Dmen. We need a couple of defence first guys capable of busting some heads.
My car analogy still stands. The above is a ridiculous statement.
You want Dmen who are good at hockey. Grebs is significantly better at the NHL level of hockey than either Staios or 2 at this time, and its not remotely close.
I think you are underestimating the toughness of those defences.
I don't think I am. I really like almost all the Dmen I listed and wish they were all Oilers.
My "truculence" scale was my attempt at measuring "head busting"
I was responding to:
" We need a couple of defence first guys capable of busting some heads"
You don't need that. Head busing Dmen are usually bottom pairing at best, save for a few who can also outplay opposition. I made that list to show that the best teams do not really employ "head busting Dmen" in their top 4.
There are some very tough men in the list I posted, but none of them (maybe Boychuck) are first and foremost "head busters"
You add Grebs to Whitney, Gilbert, Smid, Peckham and say Petry and its a lot softer than those. Add in the lack of grit and toughness up front and there is a problem.
Strawman argument. Prove that please.
Grebs can't hit OR outplay the opposition.
Incorrect again. Please show me proof that Grebs cannot outplay the opposition. There is lots of evidence that he can.
If there was a GM who felt he could, he wouldn't have had to take his one testicle over to the KHL.
Incorrect again. Apparently at least 5 NHL GM's offered him contracts. No contract was as big as his tax free KHL contract and by his own admission, these are his big earning years and he wanted some bank. I agree with him.
He's a 2nd pairing Dman in the NHL and his offers were probably around 2.0-2.5/yr.
And he sure as hell wouldn't be breaking into the top 4 on any of those defences you listed.
Why are you saying this? Where did I state that he would? These are some of the premier D groups in the NHL. I still think he's a better hockey player than some of these guys, but you are again responding to an argument I didn't make.
I think he makes SJS and WAS top 4 in a heartbeat.
"imacepr" - what the scepter says
If the Oilers had given (they didn't) a FA contract to Vandermeer at $2.7 million, and Smid is making $1.5 and going to arbitration or about to go UFA, the agent for Smid is going to compare his client to Vandermeer.
ReplyDeleteThe team could say that Vandermeer is overpaid. "We had to overpay to keep him and we wanted to keep him." We are offering you 1.5MM. We like you too, but that's the offer and it's good value for you. My thesis is that Smid and his agent will take into account: whether he is offered more elsewhere, whether he would prefer another place due to quality of living or the hope of playing on a better team, and then decide to take the 1.5MM or not. If Smid does have a better offer in those terms, he'll take it regardless of Vandermeer-jealousy. If he doesn't have a better offer, he'll take the Oiler offer. (Althogh I've admitted that on the margins, say .25MM, jealousy could come into play. You never know.)
Do you think Smid would be less likely to go to LA, if LA first bought Vandermeer for 2.5 MM, then offered Smid more money than Edmonton did, though less than LA offered Vandermeer, say 1.75MM, and Edmonton offered 1.35MM? I doubt it, but you're jealousy thesis cuts both ways here.
Arbitration is a different matter, but I was under the impression that the arbitrator usually looks for comparables league wide and then applies some reasonable-ish formula to determine the player's award, and doesn't focus on the player's teamates in particular.
Obviously, if the arbitrator focuses on teammates, then teams on the Oilers will get higher awards in arbitration because of Horcoff's (and Khabi's) deals. (This will be testable over the long term.)
Anybody know if this is true? Law people?
Dennis,
ReplyDeleteNo clue who else is coming.
All,
ReplyDeleteIts in the agents best interest NOT to mention team mate comparables since the GM/AGM that made that contract is generally present for the negotiation and can argue that contact away.
Its much, much easier for anl agent to say:
"Team X just gave contract Y for player Z, and my client player A kicks Z ass in multiple ways. Let me list them..."
The whole "same team" comparable argument doesn't sound like a good one.
I've never negotiated an NHL contract, but if I were an NHL agent I'd avoid same team comparables so the GM had nothing to talk about. Either to me or the arbiter if it got that far.
"anl agent" - a contraction of "an NHL agent"
ReplyDeleteSorry to be a debbie downer, but I believe there have been 2 more explosions at the Fukushima facility.
ReplyDeleteHow old is Hamrlik?
ReplyDeleteHe made the playoffs with the Oilers 8 years before they made the final in 2006.
His team mates on that team included Arnott, Buchberger, Deveraux, Greir, Guerin, and Kovalenko.
another rough game for Penner and the Kings so far tonight.
ReplyDeleteFuck, that's gonna be a great first round pick!
Thanks Woodguy, greatly appreciated!
ReplyDelete