I have read some things about Teubert over the last couple of years and do know that he was a player of interest for Edmonton. I also know that his career path has been bumpy.
Let's see what we can find. First stop: LA Kings Insider, the best source I've found for LAK news. Rich Hammond had an interview with GM Dean Lombardi up not long after the deadline and here's what he said:
- "When I was down in Manchester, he has come a long way. I would say that he started off a little slowly, coming out of his draft year, but he arguably was one of our most improved players down there. I think, probably, the one reason I was able to do this is because we have Matt Greene. What I saw in Manchester was very much, in a lot of ways, a young Matt Greene. So I think Edmonton has got a good player here. He certainly has an m.o. that’s attractive. I think he’s still got some development to do, but there was no question that, with what I saw in Manchester, that he’s on the right track. Like I said, if I didn’t have Matt Greene on this team — and hopefully Greener is going to be here a while — this is something that I would have looked a little more hesitantly at.”
I mentioned the other day that it was surprising to hear the gap between Hemsky and Penner in terms of value. Bob McKenzie and others seemed very clear in their comments: Hemsky had higher value. Because of that, I posted this:
- I've been somewhat surprised by the gap between the value we as Oilers fans place on DP and the type of return being discussed for him. A team shopping for one or the other (Hemsky or Penner) is more likely to get a bargain by asking for #27.
--
Over at ON, I did a trade primer (The Gods Must be Crazy) and posted the following about Penner:
- If the Oilers are convinced Penner won't sign for a good number, this might be the time to deal him. Penner is having a good season, he's healthy and it isn't beyond reasonable for another team to believe he can help them go deep this spring. Return: A very good young player in his entry level contract or an outstanding prospect, plus a pick.
--
I'd be happier if we were discussing Derek Forbort or Viatcheslav Voynov. We're not. The hardest thing for math to do re:NHL hockey is to quantify the value of a stay at home defenseman that can make a difference. I don't know that this young man can help the Oilers, but I don't know that he can't either. I believe Stu MacGregor is a pretty smart guy and the Oilers clearly had a chance to look at Teubert over a long period of time.
At some level, I have faith in the organization to get it right. I know that's a lonely place to be, but that's how I see it.
--
The first round pick from Los Angeles should come in around 20-25. Here's a quick trip through the top 30 from ISS with a few notes. Possible Oilers are in italics:
- C Ryan Nugent Hopkins (Crazy skill)
- D Adam Larsson (wide range of skills)
- L Gabriel Landeskog (terrific prospect with range of skills)
- C Sean Couturier (big center available)
- D Ryan Murphy (ridiculous offensive talent)
- R Tyler Biggs (latest American PF)
- C Ryan Strome (impressive offensive player, very creative)
- D Duncan Siemens (rugged, mobile defender)
- D Dougie Hamilton (6.04, can skate and is tough)
- F Niclas Jensen (plus size and speed, good shot)
- L Brandon Saad (PF falling a little lately)
- R Joel Armia (Quick hands, terrific skill)
- C Jonathan Huberdeau (trending up, outstanding talent)
- L Alexander Khochlachev (impressive offense)
- D David Musil (Mobile defensive defenseman)
- C Rocco Grimaldi (undersized skill player)
- C Daniel Catenacci (dynamic player, small)
- D Myles Bell (savvy offensive defenseman)
- R Dmitri Jaskin (Czech power forward)
- C Mark McNeill (big F w/wide range of skills)
- L Ty Rattie (one of the best offensive players in the draft)
- F Colin Jacobs (Big skill forward)
- D Scott Mayfield (raw D w/size and toughness)
- C Viktor Rask (downward spiral)
- D Jamie Oleksiak (6.07 condor)
- L Sven Bartschi (top end scoring prospect)
- C Mika Zibanejad (big, skilled C)
- L Matt Puempel (natural scorer)
- R Nick Shore (skilled with some size)
- R Tomas Jurco (one dimensional scorer)
--
If you've read this far you are entitled to my opinion. I do not feel a complete rebuild was required and would have preferred they keep Penner or deal him for more immediate help. The Oilers under owner Daryl Katz--and make no mistake this drawn out process is his vision--have decided that Edmonton fans will not see a contending team in Rexall Place. You can make up your own mind as to the reasons, but my belief is that the owner and hockey men are convinced this is the proper journey to winning the 6th Stanley.
With that as a caveat, I'm satisfied with the return. Understanding that the organization has decided to rebuild with Taylor Hall as the "franchise" then the organization must acquire both picks and prospects in that general age group. When Hall explodes as a player, the team can cash picks and prospects in an effort to add depth to the batting order, but it isn't going to happen this or next season.
I remain convinced the team could have added some elements in the summer and contended for a playoff spot. The management group went another way, and acquired a bet in Teubert that may or may not come through. Having said that, this is a player Stu MacGregor is familiar with and I find it hard to believe the report was negative on his draft day or on this one.
Teubert can be added to the list that includes Peckham, Petry, Chorney, Plante at the pro level and Marincin, Blain, Davidson and others in junior.
This is a build around Taylor Hall. Are you up for a rebuild?
Dustin Penner's birth certificate disqualified him from being a part of the future. Next stop: dealing Ales Hemsky and securing a new arena. After that, a contender.
I bet hemmer stays, 5.5 x 5
ReplyDeleteI should have saved my big rant for this post.
ReplyDeleteHungry, Blind Squirrel Finds Nut
- pictures at 11
I guess I'm free 82 extra evenings a year for the next 4 years.
Thanks LT. Very well reasoned. Very non-knee-jerk.
ReplyDeleteI think the only argument can be about the plan... and the team is quite plainly not going to spend any future assets for a shot at an early window. In light of that, they traded a present asset for future ones.
If only they had had the foresight to start this process 4 years ago after the original magic beans trade.
Does Taylor Hall have any 'Buddies' we can trade Hemsky for???
ReplyDeleteIf only they had had the foresight to start this process 4 years ago after the original magic beans trade.
ReplyDeleteThis is the part that pisses me off the most. It's not even close. And then to not give us a few gallons of blood from the guys at the top when they finally get around to starting? Awful.
Hey Mark Mcneil does fall right in the area they'd be picking. I'm guessing that is who they'd take if he was on the board too. (Unless one of the top 12 or so made a big fall)
ReplyDeleteReturn: A very good young player in his entry level contract or an outstanding prospect, plus a pick.
ReplyDeleteI think the Oilers covered that return.
I really fail to see how this trade covered that return. They did not get a very good young player in his ELC and nor did they get an outstanding prospect. Not even the 1st rounder meets the bar because that projects to be about a 25% shot at a good player.
Also, I really think this had absolutely nothing to do with Penner's desire to re-sign. I don't think they asked because I don't think they care. This is strictly about the birth certificate. They are looking at taking forever to do this thing and of course it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Jeebus people get a grip (directed more at some of the commenters from the previous posts)... I get a lot of you hate this trade, but really can you not wait until Teubert has been completely written off as a pro hockey player before calling this one garbage? This is a 30th place team with DP, so the Oil will do the draft, look for more depth this summer, and try again. Teubert may just bring what this team will need in a year or two.... when they will actually be competitive. Because we all know they weren't this year even with Penner in the line up.
ReplyDeleteBTW love this blog LT, been reading it for a while now and try to recommend it as much as i can...
Certainly the most rationale, lucid defense of the trade. Maybe in a day or two (or a week or so) I'll feel better about this.
ReplyDeleteYou're absolutely right that his birth certificate and about future salary cap. Do you invest dollars in Penner and Hemsky when you figure that Gagner, Hall, Eberle and Paajarvi are guys you hope will command a big raise. Also, figure Hemsky will ask to be compensated for having to put up with all these seasons of crap.
I get that kind of stuff. I get that the last two games big teams have hammered the crap out of them like they have all season. I get that Smac hasn't been the deterrrent and JFJ can't get off on a dime.
But I'm mad that Tuebert is the return (right now). A guy who was only one of 6 who got 30+ goals last season. Not a good return even with a late 1st round pick thrown in.
It's not a linear return, not even close. You're hoping that this will result in a tighter defense, a team that will be tougher to play against. That's more faith than this management has shown it deserves.
mc79: I think that we will get our pint of blood eventually. Whether it's deserved or not, at some point the losing they have planned will cause something of an uproar I think. I expect Tambellini will be the sacrificial lamb along with Renney (or even his successor) and Lowe will pick it back up.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, Hemsky is gone next deadline..
ReplyDeleteAstute, I thought at least, insight wrt to 'where' the oilers plan to start winning (or rather, trying to win)..
Anyways, cue Jim Mora..
Playoffs?.. Are kidding me?!.. Playoffs?..
(at least he wants to win a game..)
Medium term depth chart with missing pieces:
ReplyDeleteHemsky Eberle, Omark, Pitlick, big checking RW
1st line centre, Gagner, Horcoff, Lander, Martindale
Hall, Paajarvi, Hamilton, Hartikainen, Reddox
Gilbert, Petry, Teubert, Plante
Whitney, bid defensive D, Smid, Marincin,
The medium term picture is not dire.
The 1st round pick this year should fill the 1st line centre spot or the defense slot in the medium term.
What is critical is that Tambellini gets a competent 3rd line centre and a 2nd pairing D this summer.
Same needs as last summer, but he has to do better than Fraser and Foster.
I would have preferred immediate help for Penner, but he has to spend the cap space created to get a quality centre and a quality D.
If Tambellini doesn't do that this summer, I will be an unhappy camper.
I want a Left winger with some grit that is it. Or a Centre with some grit. I liked Penner but he never would use his body enough.. all he had to do stick out his ass he would get the room he needed. Getting NHL ready player for Penner would just led to some issue down the road. I think the team wants to mold the players make them Oilers not hire douchebags like Souray & Pronger. They want players to represent the 780... lol
ReplyDeleteSo does picking up Tuebert mean that we arent picking Larsson #1? My gut feeling says yes.
ReplyDeleteAh... and it's been a last place team with Kevin and Steve at the helm, so by Rosco's logic, it's time to kiss their asses good-bye.
ReplyDeleteWelcome aboard, Rosco. I like the cut of your jib.
Anyone else really scared how Tambellini said "5 years from now maybe we don't make that trade"?
ReplyDeleteRebuild better not take that long...
Lowetide:
ReplyDeleteWhat is your opinion on RNH? Do you think the Oilers would draft a player of his ilk (now that a big body in Penner is gone) and play him with Hemsky, or do they pass and go for a bigger body to compliment Hemsky?
---
Or is Hemsky gone this summer and it's undisputed that the Oilers will draft RNH?
---
A few situations for sure, I am just curious what your take is on the Oilers top draft pick and why.
Thanks
Raine Snow: My concern over RNH has a lot to do with his even strength number.
ReplyDeleteI've been told it comes from playing with plumbers, but it's a concern. Based on the numbers and what I read, Couturier is my choice and maybe a stronger bet after today's trade.
Larsson is a completely different type of player than Teubert. Had we gotten one of the Kings better D prospects or Bogo for Hemmer, I'd say yes.
ReplyDelete3 years from now with Whitney, Smid and Gilbert gone:
Larsson, Peckham
Marincin, Teubert
Petry, Plante
I'd say Larsson is still one of the primary targets unless the Oilers can turn that 15-20 pick into another top 12 and grab Siemens or Musil.
That's my consensus as well. I think this just sealed the deal for Couturier.
ReplyDeleteI felt if Hemsky was sent out the door for a solid d-man (Penner remains), RNH would be that player who commanded the puck on the 1st line. A few minor deals to solidify the 4th line and the Oilers would have put this rebuild in fast forward.
Unfortunately, that's not the case.
Raine Snow: Yeah, plus I think the second pick in the first round is probably going to be a defender.
ReplyDeleteThere's also the chance they trade up to get a Siemens or even a Dougie Hamilton (but maybe that's stretching it).
First off I just want to thank you LT for this great arena to discuss all things hockey. You do an amazing job, the comments are top rate and I look forward to coming here everyday.
ReplyDeleteThe part that bugs me the most about this trade was that it did not need to happen at this time. Penner would have been worth a first and a middling prospect next year if he was going to be a UFA so why not wait, try to sign him to a fair deal and deal him if that wasn't looking good? The return certainly wasn't the "we gave us an offer we can't refuse".
Management appears to have put a time frame window in place and are going to stick to it, regardless if it makes sense or can be done sooner. Stockpile assets and hope that it all figures itself out. Garbage.
Jamie
Agreed, Hemsky is gone next deadline.
ReplyDeleteWell, if Hemmer isn't locked into an extension by the deadline next year, they should be dealing him. We watched Richardson, Joseph and Marchant (to name a few) walk out the door with nothing in return and this organization can't afford to see that happen with Pardubice Prince.
So does picking up Tuebert mean that we arent picking Larsson #1? My gut feeling says yes.
This doesn't compute to me at all. Everything I've read about Tuebert says he's a defensive defenceman with a limited offensive skillset. Larsson is being touted as a player with a bigger upside than Victor Hedman and puck moving skills. If they want Larsson, I can't see having Tuebert changing their minds one bit.
Such a huge a discrepancy between out most of the posters here think the Oiler's did and what the MSM thinks. I'm leaning with you guys, we should have held out for one of the better prospects but maybe the interest in Penner was a little more lukewarm than we thought it would be and Tambo thought it wasn't going to get any better in the summer?
Very nicely balanced post-- I enjoy your writing immensly. I think you are correct to identify this as a mark of a long, scorched earth type rebuild.
ReplyDeleteI would be very curious to know know Shawn Horcoff's true thoughts on this move and the current situation.
While I am sure the money is a nice balm, I suspect that he must be coming to the realization that he is stuck babysitting a non-contending team through the peak years of his career.
His contract makes him untradeable; I doubt he gets bought out; and he can hardly complain or he looks like an ungrateful bastard.
A good day for my bet with Woodguy, a bad day for Oiler fans everywhere.
ReplyDeleteGuess what, we're not winning anything next year, or the year after. The games may start to matter again in 2013. A bunch of horse shit if you ask me.
Thanks for the effort Ales. Next time you go into a corner with 28 in red, ease up, those guys upstairs don't deserve your efforts.
ReplyDeleteI just pulled a Tambellini, posting in the other thread when the action had already moved to this one. Oh well, now that I'm in Tambo mode I might as well as order up an pricey Russian call girl with a cranky back. So what if the deadline's passed, there's still time to get screwed again ;)
ReplyDeleteLT: Thank you for sharing your insight and perspective.
ReplyDeleteI expect that Teubs will bring the nasty and a team-first attitude to the Barons. It would be nice if he is from the Jason Smith tree of defenders. I don't know if they would play Plante and Teubs together (both righties I think), but that would be a nice pair of Twin Towers to develop.
Can you share your most recent impression on Couturier? Have we heard Stu MacGregor comment on him in public? The kid from Drummondville could be the Oilers' next important piece of the puzzle.
Story on SC's natural hat trick from a couple weeks ago:
http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/juniorhockey/blog/buzzing_the_net/post/QMJHL-Sean-Couturier-had-a-natural-hat-trick-la?urn=juniorhockey-322284
Thanks LT - I appreciate the rationality. I abandoned the earlier thread as the ranting was reaching Tea Party levels (as were the attacks).
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGoing into today, I was insistent that a trade of Penner or Hemsky had to be an overpay coming back given the lack of experience forwards. Naturally Tambi doesn't give a shit about my demands so we have this trade. Not an overpay, but not terrible. Did they want Teubert over Forbort/Voynov or were those guys a deal breaker with Lombardi? Did someone ask Tambi that question. Lowe and MacGregor know defensemen, hopefully they are right here.
ReplyDeletePenner owns a house in LA still and married a model/starlet. This was good for him and probably where he wanted to be for the future anyway. This trade could be reasonable given that premise.
Imperative to use the cap space to extend hemsky, 4 years at $6M/yr. Horc can't be the only forward on this club over 25 when they get good.
It was nice of Penner to go out of his way not to slag the team or Tambi on his way out. I like the fat guy.
I'm a little deflated. I thought when Lowe put 4-6 years out there he was intentionally lowering the expectations, and intended to pleasantly surprise the base when they were in the mix earlier than stated.
ReplyDeleteNow I know that he really meant 4 to 6 years.
It has me pondering my own mortality. Am I gonna have to quit smoking and drinking to ensure I see this team competetive ever again?
240+ meaningless more games ahead... How do you swear off vice when face with that?
Keep in mind the Kings are only a few points out of missing the playoffs, with some good teams behind them that are out (like Chicago), so its very possible the 1st rounder could be a #13 or #14 overall, which would make this trade much easier to take. Remember that the playoff teams all pick last (15-30).
ReplyDeleteFinally there is one reason to be thankful that the Western conference is so much stronger than the East!
If you enjoy watching someone who clearly has the ability to terrify opposing defensemen, but who chooses to do so only briefly, if he is angry enough, that is, once in a while, then I guess you are disappointed with this deal. If watching such a player gives you a migraine....
ReplyDeletePile up some young big bodies, and prove that your organization has the patience and resources to develop players who will bring it ALL THE TIME.
slipper - think about how I feel, I'm in my forties, man!
ReplyDeleteI'll be in a diaper by the time these guys play another meaningful game.
Don't like the trade but not surprised by it.
I have a feeling that they sign Hemsky this summer. If he goes for futures as well I'm not really sure what I will say.
Not a good day to be an Oilers' fan but its been five years of it almost. Pretty lousy feeling.
Few random thoughts:
ReplyDelete1. Though vehemently upset at this deal, I'm glad Ales Hemsky is still an Oiler. Perhaps a signal the Oilers intend to extend him. Then again, maybe management will trade him for $0.60 on the $1.00.
2. I maintained getting an low-risk prospect was crucial if moving Penner. I'd have been okay with Forbert, Ellis, Voynov, etc.
We didn't.
We got a guy who may be a Matt Greene 3-4 years down the road
3. If the season ended today, the pick would be 21st. LA has a 12-8 home-road split. Very real possibility they advance to the conference finals and we're looking at a 27-30th overall pick.
4. Daryl Katz's wealth is well documented. On what grounds did he hire Steve Tambellini?
5. The decision to put Souray on re-entry waivers, in addition to roll-backs on season ticket prices leads me to believe the Edmonton Oilers will be closer to a floor team, rather than a cap team.
Didn't take long Katz to break his promises. While we're on the subject, where is the new practice arena that was being discussed with the University of Alberta?
6. A good GM would overpay on short term contracts next year, collect assets if out of race at the deadline.
The Edmonton Oilers do not have a good GM.
7. At some point, even die-hards like myself who've followed this shitty franchise since 1994 will get fed up.
Games which were previously evening plans have turned into background TV fodder phenomena.
8. 6 missed playoff appearances in the past 8 years. Including a franchise record 5 straight streak in progress.
Yet, the talk in town is the Oilers won this deal.
Blind faith. Google it.
Also, what kind of message does this send to young 4 and 14. Hey Taylor, remember that 240 pound guy that jumped Doughty after he clobbered you? He's gone for a guy in the AHL and a one in four chance at an NHL regular. Oh, and third round pick. Now lace 'em up kid, try not to win too many games though, it will mess up the "plan".
ReplyDeleteSo with the Manitoba kid gone to Tinseltown what does everyone think the forward lines will look like next game?
ReplyDeleteHall-Horcoff-Hemsky
Paajarvi-Cogliano-Eberle
Jones-Gagner-Omark
Reddox-Fraser-Brule
//240+ meaningless more games ahead... How do you swear off vice when face with that?//
ReplyDeleteI disagree. Watching a rebuild from the beginning to contending, and the players develops is actually a lot of fun.
lol anon - you mean the guy who scored thirty goals last year and will probably score close to that this year in the NHL isn't as good as the minor leaguer who brings it all of the time
ReplyDeletehaha
The Edmonton Oilers - our farm team is awesome! Come see all of the former first rounders.
There's a slogan.
godot - what happens if they are the Islanders or Panthers and never contend?
ReplyDeleteStill fun?
Is is sad that I just googled "2012 NHL Draft prospects"?
ReplyDeleteClips here(!):
http://dansallows.com/2012-nhl-draft-prospects/
More concerning is as per Penner, they never had any discussions about an extension.
ReplyDeleteAlmost seems as if the intention is to suck again for a few years.
The Strudwicks, MacIntyres and Jacques of the world must be pleased today with this development.
Obviously you've chosen not to kick the drugs either, godot. Welcome aboard!
ReplyDeleteThe only real point of contention I have with your statement is that there's no guarantees that the end of this road finds us with a contending team to cheer for.
Dennis: Nicely done.
ReplyDeleteIs is sad that I just googled "2012 NHL Draft prospects"?
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely, but symbolic of the fact "the rebuild" has softened expectations considerably, while congruently extended Tambellin's/Lowe's job security for a few years.
I'm going to be doing my part - personal vow not to spend a dime on these phudus next season.
You can write it on a brick.
I never had this feeling in 4 years as an Oiler fan..but something in me died today....maybe its hope...maybe its love...but its gone.....
ReplyDeleteWatching a rebuild from the beginning to contending, and the players develops is actually a lot of fun.
ReplyDeleteYou exemplify the model customer the Edmonton Oilers are looking for.
You're in minion country, folks.
It's quite sad, actually.
Just another gut-wrenching trade of the Weight, Pronger, and Smyth variety.
ReplyDeleteHave the Edmonton Oilers ever acquired the best player in the deal? Pronger, Pitkanen, and Visnovsky would qualify.
Too bad their stays were short.
LT: I don't see a big difference.
ReplyDeleteSO: I'm not being saucy but how old were you when they dealt away 94?
That's when everything changed for me.
I'm still a fan but I don't trust them in the least.
Once you hit that level it's like staying with your wife after's she's cheated on you.
So, Tambo's spinning it as a trade he couldn't refuse. Bah. Penner is a good, top-line player. In return, the Oil get a late 1st rounder (so, a couple years away, and a coin-flip at that), a suspect prospect, and a magic bean. Somehow Pierre @TSN sees three question marks as an overpay by LA. Guess he doesn't realize LA picked up a 1st-liner in a tight playoff race, all without giving up a roster player. Or that the Oilers settled for quanity (3rd or 4th D prospect plus a pick) vs. quality (better D prospect). Nor was he watching the Fisher, Versteeg and Arnott trades (Penner's better than all three). Time will tell whether local media fall for the Oilers spin. Only way it was too good to refuse is if they *had* to trade Penner...problem is, they didn't. And they're a worse team for it.
ReplyDeleteFrom my vantage point:
- Penner was the only big forward in the top nine
- Penner could win a draw (unlike most other options on the team)
- Penner's a 30 goal scorer
So, subtracting Penner creates yet another huge hole in the lineup. Add in the apparent indicators that he was good in the room and enjoyed playing here (post MacT years anyway). Meanwhile the return does nothing to address any existing holes in the current lineup. Sure, it adds more prospects for some future season, but what about the next couple years? Exactly how long are we supposed to keep buying this garbage about accumulating prospects? It's been pretty much 20 years of trading skilled, NHL players for magic beans and hope. The '06 Cup run was the opposite of course--the one year bonafide NHL players were added to the team (CFP, Peca, Roloson, Samsonov, Spacek, Tarnstrom). For years prior, and every year since the story's been the same. Trade away talent to stock-up on young players. A strong team is just a few years away. Course that never happened as they consistently traded away anyone that became an actual player.
This year marks the fifth in a row outside the playoffs. How can the case be made that the Oilers are early in the rebuild? It started the day CFP was dealt for quantity. That it took management a few years to realize the obvious (it was rebuild time) speaks to their utter incompetence.
Count me as ticked the Oil have already thrown in the towel on next season. I'm not even a season ticket holder. Can't imagine they're more impressed.
To make matters worse, this signals the end for Hemsky wearing the Oil drop (why would he re-sign?). The last two years should have been the bottom, with a move up next season. Penner helps with that. The "return" doesn't.
LT is right. The wait is gonna be a long one.
where are they now?
ReplyDeleteOn HF, of course.
Licking Tambellini's ass and calling it ice cream.
MC79
ReplyDeleteThat's my biggest beef too. We should be 4 years into this process and instead we are 1. The accountability? 2 coaches fired, head scout fired, GM kicked upstairs, and a whole shitload of little guys let go, because they were too tied to the past (oh the irony).
Forget 2012, clearly Tambellini is targeting Nathan MacKinnon in 2013.
ReplyDeleteI bet hemmer stays, 5.5 x 5
ReplyDeleteI bet he doesn't. In fact I'd bet the opposite. Hemsky is not part of this rebuild and I think he knows it. Here are the reasons:
1. Tambellini was perfectly fine with moving him, so long as the return was good.
2. Kevin Lowe tipped his hand by stating publicly that this rebuild will be 4-6 years longer.
3. Even if negotiations to re-sign Hemsky occur, how is he possibly going to get a $ amount that reflects his maximum value if we accept that #1 and #2 are true?
4. We have incompetent management, meaning that there are no assurances that this rebuild will be successful 4-6 years down the road.
5. Lastly, and absolutely no weight should be given to this, despite his girlfriend being from Edmonton, it's being whispered around town that Hemsky wants out of Edmonton.
So, take my thoughts for what they are worth, but I'm preparing myself mentally now for seeing Hemmer go this summer or at next year's deadline. If it is true that Hemsky wants out or that management wants to move him, I think Tambellini did a decent job of posturing in trying to procure Schenn this year. He certainly won't be in a stronger position next year.
I think that there was a hint of desperation attached to this trade. The words of Tambellini's press conference that stick with me were about trying to package picks to move up. I think he wanted to get Stu an extra first round pick with the possibility of getting two in top ten. Maybe Hemsky goes on draft day in a package.
ReplyDeleteGodot:
ReplyDeleteSeriously? You enjoy watching games that don't matter? It's been about 320 straight for me, and around game 260 I stopped watching the players closely. Up to that point I had been a careful observer in hopes of figuring out who should stick and who should not.
Here are some of my favorites during that time:
- Curtis Glencross
- Patrick Thoreson
- Jan Hejda
- Ryan Stone
All four of those guys caught my eye as players that could help a team win on the cheap. The kind of players that get the puck out when a scared shitless 20 something defender hard rims it around the d zone. The jury is still out on Stone, but I think it's fair to say that the other three have been positive contributors in pro leagues.
The way I see it there are three possible explanations:
1. They can't evaluate talent as it relates to winning hockey games. Robert Nilsson good, Curtis Glencross bad.
2. They don't place any value on winning games. In other words, they have been trying to lose since 2007.
3. Those players were asking for too much to stay with the Oilers. Dollars that were 20-40% greater than what they signed for.
I think it's pretty definitively #1. Now, my fellow patient Oiler fans (at this point, it's clear that anyone reading this is a die-hard fan), do you have any faith in this groups ability to evaluate these sorts of players going forward? In a capped league, finding cheap talent is a must for an organization to become and remain competitive. Even if we draft in the top five for the net three seasons, what reason do we have to believe that this management group will be able to fill out the rest of the roster? Luck and draft position will only take this incompetent crew so far.
We may be making the playoffs in three seasons, but I doubt we'll have any success until the entire top of the organization is shown the door. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening in the next decade.
Perhaps it's time for a new hobby.
@ Dennis
ReplyDeletethe year they traded away Smyth was my first year as a fan of this team. I started following hockey after the magical 05-06 cup run. Hence did not have any special affinity with any player. But now Penner was one of my favorite Oilers. I cant recall how many hours I have spent defending his play and stay as an oiler...
Great post LT. Very well reasoned argument. I must say I agree somewhat, but at this time its just too difficult to say who comes out of this trade on top. I would have loved for us to have kept Penner, and I also would have loved to have had Voynov as a return. But Teubert isn't yet a bust by any means... Defensive defencemen take their time to develop and I think that in time he will fill an essential role for the club.
ReplyDeleteWhile I am disappointed that the trade essentially throws in the towel for next season, a good use of LA's pick along with steady development of Teubert could mean the Oilers come out on top of this trade 2-3 years into the future. I may come off as being overly optimistic, but I think the long-term value of this trade could bring us closer to a cup than we would have been otherwise.
I often dismiss posts like the one I've just written with a simple tl;dr, so I'll end off by saying I really, really, really hope we can ink Hemsky this offseason
Also, LT, as much as I respect you and appreciate your contribution to the conversation, I think your take on the direction of the organization is detached from what their track record has shown us.
ReplyDeletewell to answer your completely..I was 19 ..2nd yr in canada/edmonton
ReplyDeleteNothing wrong with giving Stu more bullets... if the pick turns into Musil - its a good day.
ReplyDeleteSum Oil: I was 20 and working with 15 people that normally joked around all the time except on August 9, 1988. That day was soul crushing.
ReplyDeleteThe Messier trade was worse when Nicholls said he wouldn't report and he came with two sacks of potatoes.
The Guerin trade, the Weight trade (He had a year left too), Smyth and this.
You get over it, at least I do. Management certainly counts on it. I still watch these jokers 65 games a year and I haven't lived in Edmonton since 1990. What the matter with me?
Could someone explain why this guy is a magic bean?
ReplyDeleteI thought a Tuber was a root vegetable like a potato.
Feel free to pass that one along to Geeno.
Defensive defencemen take their time to develop.
ReplyDeleteIs there any evidence of this?
I too think that they will go for Mark McNiell if available...gritty center with size!
ReplyDeleteThanks Henry....I too think that slowly I will come around...maybe around the draft, but as Dennis said..its sort of a trust has been broken. I dont think these guys can take this team to the next level
ReplyDeletePfft this trade has nothing on the Gretzky, Messier, Weight, and Smyth deals. Those were killers.
ReplyDeletePenner doesn't deserve the love they had.
On another blunder note:
ReplyDeleteJim Vandermeer is still an Oiler.
Why exactly?
Likewise, no extension for Ryan Jones. He probably walks and we're out a 3rd/4th round pick.
Circa 2007 all over again. Sykora not traded at deadline, no intention to re-sign him in the summer.
A good day for my bet with Woodguy, a bad day for Oiler fans everywhere.
ReplyDeleteUh oh.
Did we bet on the Oilers making the playoffs next year? I can't remember the details, but do remember that at least the terms were reasonable.
I'm upset at this trade because it seems they went for quantity of assets (5!!, 3!!) rather than quality.
A Forbort or Voynov + a 2nd would have been a better return as there would have been a player who is tracking to be a NHL difference maker.
Unless MBS turns the 1st into something, there is no high quality player here except the one going to LA, and that's a loss.
I guess the 1st is the center piece for the trade and not Teubert. If its Tuebert than the trade is an unmitigated disaster because you are trading something very tough and expensive* to get (Goal scoring) for something much easier to get (Defensive Dmen)
*Goal scoring can be tough and expensive to acquire unless you deal with the Oilers.
The toughest part of today is that it solidifies the fact that the Oiler don't plan on putting an actual NHL team on the ice for a few years yet.
I think they had a window to compete and they are ignoring it, or simply do not see the window as I and others do.
I can't continue to pay exorbitant prices to watch players develop and watch the team lose more than win, with no playoffs in sight for at least 3 more years (that will make 8 years out of the playoffs, same as the Kings I think)
I had high hopes that v3.0 would hold fast and get a good return.
Those hopes are dashed, there is nothing to hang you hat on in this trade, just a bunch of "what ifs" and "hope".
There will be one more set of Gold seats available next year, I can't continue to pay for promises and "wait till next year", I've been paying for 5 playoffless years and don't have the stomach to pay for another 3.
PunjabiOil said...
ReplyDeleteDefensive defencemen take their time to develop.
Is there any evidence of this?
Sorry, I was pretty unclear on what I meant by that. I guess what I was trying to say is that its harder to track the progress of a stay at home, defensive defenseman than a more offensively minded blueliner or forward. It can work both ways, with defensive dmen being late bloomers or peaking early. I just think that because of the type of player he is, its too early for people to be saying that Teubert is a bust
I'm 38, and I've been an Oiler fan for 30 years. I have to admit that today was the first time in a long time that I felt a sense of despair.
ReplyDeleteNot because Dustin Penner is the best or last player we'll ever trade, but because the realization of how long this is going to take finally set in.
I will say, this...Tambellini told us last year that this was coming. I think there is a disconnect between the more cerebral fans (many on this blog) and the Oilers management about what stage of the rebuild this is.
I think the Org has this down as year 1-2, whereas many of us have looked at the cupboard (Gagner, MPS, Eberle) and said...ok this is year 3 or 4 already. I think we've arrived at that conclusion almost by accident.
By that I mean it's as though Lowe, Tambo, etc look at those players and picks and say..."Yeah yeah, but we weren't TRYING to rebuild when we took those guys so let's start over."
Lombardi himself said that in stage one you have to strip it all down and build up a reserve list. Look how long that took in LA. We've had a couple solid drafts, and probably need a couple solid more. Let's hope Stu has another one in him like last year (although I agree with Dennis that we're bound to miss at some point...it's just the nature of the drafting process).
Lastly, in trying to look at this from a level headed perspective, this is the reason why people say Canadian markets can't go through a proper rebuild. We want to win so damn much. Look at Burke in TO trying to hedge his bets. They don't have the stomach for it. As much as it hurts to watch this team suck again for another 2 years, I hope we don't deviate. Yes, there's always the chance of ending up like NYI or FLA, and hell, if we do then Lowe and Tambo get fired.
Now, I'm off to play in my Monday night beer league game. If the Oi need an under-sized puck moving D-man, I'm available.
Cheers, all.
Blum for Smid had me really excited (seems clear that this offer was never in play) - I'm surprised our dud defense is still intact.
ReplyDeleteYou know, I'm not enjoying being an Oilers fan right now. That's the first time I've been able to say this (I'd have been able to say it a hell of a lot more often if it weren't for this blog and its attendant community), and I find that sad, more than anything.
ReplyDeletePerhaps I'll feel differently tomorrow.
There will be one more set of Gold seats available next year, I can't continue to pay for promises and "wait till next year", I've been paying for 5 playoffless years and don't have the stomach to pay for another 3.
ReplyDeleteWe need more good fans like you, not less.
As LT would say, "Jebus..." I only say that in the context of being at a loss for words.
ReplyDeleteI was a huge fan of Penner, but the underlying reality of this trade stings a lot more than the loss of the d train.
For the record, I'm not a fan of the return, but not surprised either.
I'm glad I watched the 2006 cup run live at Rexall, but the memories are fading fast.
Last year was rock bottom as a fan in terms of watching this team. It's hard to believe how long we'll have to wait to watch meaningful Oiler games.
Reality bites and sometimes it bites really hard... Tough day all... tough day...
We seem to be having a respect issue this evening. Let's try again tomorrow.
ReplyDelete