Taylor Hall has found another gear. When we last visited the Oiler rookie he was outside the top 20 all-time in rookie scoring for the club. He has progressed.
- Jari Kurri (80-81) 75gp, 32-43-75
- Jason Arnott (93-94) 78gp, 33-35-68
- Dave Lumley (79-80) 80gp, 20-38-58
- Glenn Anderson (80-81) 58gp, 30-23-53
- Sam Gagner (07-08) 79gp, 13-36-49
- Andrew Cogliano (07-08) 82gp, 18-27-45
- Taylor Hall (10-11) 61gp, 21-19-40
- Raimo Summanen (85-86) 73gp, 19-18-37
- Miro Satan (95-96) 62gp, 18-17-35
- Jordan Eberle (10-11) 48gp, 14-19-33
- Jaroslav Pouzar (82-83) 74gp, 15-18-33
- Mike Grier (96-97) 79gp, 15-17-32
- Kyle Brodziak (07-08) 80gp, 14-17-31
- Rem Murray (96-97) 82gp, 11-20-31
- David Oliver (94-95) 44gp, 16-14-30
- Ales Hemsky (02-03) 59gp, 6-24-30
- Jozef Beranek (91-92) 58gp, 12-16-28
- Todd Marchant (94-95) 45gp, 13-14-27
- Dean McAmmond (93-94) 45gp, 6-21-27
- Martin Gelinas (89-90) 46gp, 17-8-25
- Mats Lindgren (96-97) 69gp, 11-14-25
- Magnus Pääjärvi (10-11) 59gp, 10-14-24
- Scott Fraser (97-98) 29gp, 12-11-23
- Jason Chimera (02-03) 66gp, 14-9-23
- Mike Comrie (00-01) 41gp, 8-14-22
- Jarret Stoll (03-04) 68gp, 10-11-21
What does this mean? Reasonable expectations is designed to be a line in the sand. It isn't a "shoots out the lights" projection and it isn't designed to set the bar too low. Hall is going to pass Steven Stamkos as a rookie in the next couple of weeks--that's a helluva feat and I don't think we could have reasonably expected it.
Next question: how high can he fly? He may never reach the ground.
The kid is pure and simple a winner. Taylor will not accept not being the absolute best. We have our Ace up front; done. If we are lucky enough to get Larson at the draft then we may have the makings of a great defense as well.
ReplyDeleteFearless prediction - At the end of his Oiler career Taylor is the second best Oiler to ever put on the jersey.
These kids (led by Hall) make Hemsky and Penner look somewhat expendable. Noth that Hemsky and Penner are bad players but more because the kids have all lived up to every bit of the hype and have or will be shortly suprassing our former team points leaders.
ReplyDeleteThe 2 kid lines were great last night including Jones who complimented the Sam and Magnus line very well.
I posted this at the end of the GDT, but it seems appropriate here:
ReplyDeleteHall in this morning's Sun regarding 40:
"That's awesome, when you can get a goalie that really keeps you in the game and gives you some stability back there. It's good to know that if we do give up some chances early, they're probably not going to be going in and we can play a little more loose and a little more confident. He probably won us the game in the 1st period"
My guess is that after practice today Hall will be called to Tambellini's office and made to write: "Nicholai Khabibulin is our MVP" 200 times in his own blood for such impertinence.
Hall just added another layer of awesome to himself.
So it looks like 4 and 14 have some serious chemistry.
What kind of center would play best with them?
A distributor of the puck?
A bull who can get in deep and dig pucks out?
A defensive minded vet who can cover the back end while 4 and 14 go wild?
Who is the better fit in terms of 89 or 13? Does that play into Tambellini's thinking of which one (if any) to move?
If the Oilers are looking at drafting or trading for a C, I think how that player will play with 4 and 14 has to be a serious part of the consideration.
Those two are the franchise for the next 6+ years.
If he learns to finish more of his chances as he adapts to the NHL game, we could potentially have a top 10 player. In the league. In any given year.
ReplyDeleteExciting times.
Imagine how many points he would have if has a half decent center
ReplyDeleteFunny little footnote at the end of last night's game recap on TSN:
ReplyDeleteTom Gilbert and Andrew Cogliano are now working on 4 seasons with the Oilers without missing a game, standing at 315 and 307 consecutive games respectively.
Looking at their stat lines and GP at 82, 82, 82 is a thing to behold. Whatever else, they certainly have been durable.
I see a lot of Messier's style in him. It does not matter if the defender has position. He goes over them or through them.
ReplyDeleteHe needs time to bulk up so he does not get knocked off his feet so easily.
@ WG
ReplyDelete"My guess is that after practice today Hall will be called to Tambellini's office and made to write: "Nicholai Khabibulin is our MVP" 200 times in his own blood for such impertinence."
Hall is Hallry Potter and Tambellini is Dolores Umbridge
Also regarding the kind of center we need, I think we need someone who is able to distribute the puck to them and able to cover for their defensive shortcomings. We dont need a superstar center, However having one couldn't hurt.
ReplyDeleteCue to drafting Couturier
Sum Oil - that sounds like Horcoff. He's already making so much that we can't move him anyway.
ReplyDeleteCue to drafting Larsson.
Anon - better than Messier?
ReplyDeleteAnyhow the kid is absolutely amazing and while I think Seguin is going to be very good and there is a long long way to go there is little doubt that the Oilers made the right choice. I was leaning towards Seguin but Hall has been terrific.
Anon 2 - why not keep Penner and Hemsky? I don't understand why the emergence of the kids means these guys are expendable. What is wrong with having lots of good players on the team?
If I remember correctly Toews did not score in last year's final, although he played very well. The Hawks still won because they were three lines deep.
One line with Hall and Eberle, another with Penner and Hemsky, a third with Paajarvi and Gagner. If you get a deal in place where you get a centre or Dman who can play then you can consider it.
Otherwise get these guys signed.
@ Deano
ReplyDeleteSounds good. I really Like Larsson too. I dont think I will be unhappy with either selection. Both fill a significant need in our organisation.
But you said it. It sounds like Horcoff. We prolly need more like him with the offensive skills of our wingers. There is a reason why Horcoff-Hemsky have been an effective pair and Horcoff with the rookies was a very successful line early in the season. oo bad ST doesnt have a cloning machine
@ Blackdog
ReplyDeleteI think one thing we are not considering is the cap hits after the ELC's are over. If we are to win before the '6 year build period', We will need to shed some dollars on the blue line and also some more on other forwards.
It would be really great if it all works out. But color me skeptical
Well, there's always the off-chance the cap blows up the next time the CBA comes up for renewal. Dare to dream?
ReplyDeleteI don't see it, but if the Kings offered Schenn for Penner straight up, then I'd consider that a win. Shades of Iginla for Neiwy?
@ Uni
ReplyDeleteBob McKenzie thinks that LA wont offer Schenn for anyone of the players available at the deadline. I think if Lombardi is going to be a miser and not part with his more precious asset, ST should hold onto his too!
SumOil, agreed. I just always have a sinking feeling as March approaches.
ReplyDeleteBrodziak and a 6th for a 4th and 5th still leaves me bewildered.
Also I agree with Itsaleaf, the girls of Edmonton need to get their hooks into young'n's something fierce.
Come on local girls, you know what you have to do, for the team.
uni - If Dan Ellis's whine is to be believed, then the 'exchange rate' between revenue dollars and players' salary dollars is about 30% meaning the $59.4MM salary cap figure for public consumption is actually about $41.6MM after the funds are released from escrow.
ReplyDeleteThe CBA may have already blown up and we don't know it because the side more damaged by this 'slippage' has not figured it out yet.
Hall in this morning's Sun regarding 40:
ReplyDelete"That's awesome, when you can get a goalie that really keeps you in the game and gives you some stability back there. It's good to know that if we do give up some chances early, they're probably not going to be going in and we can play a little more loose and a little more confident. He probably won us the game in the 1st period"
In the Journal, Hall is quoted as saying: "The way our goaltenders have been playing, we kind of know if we give up a chance, its still not going in, which lets us play a little looser. You watched the game in the first period."
DD 2-0-0 2.00 .943 in last 2G
Bulin 2-1-0 1.81 .935 in last 4 G
Its not fair to suggest Hall was being critical of Bulin.
I can't recall who I was having a debate with regarding Landeskog and our depth at RW. Turns out Landeskog is a prominently a LW and really likes to play there.
ReplyDeleteDan Ellis goes to anahiem for Curtis McElhinney. Now TB has former flames goalie backing a former Oiler goalie!!
ReplyDeleteEberle's #s with recovery from an injury thrown in are outstanding. I'm wondering if he can/will carry a line on his own; the line that sees the most of the opposition's best offensive guys, leaving lets say Hall's line to trounce weaker lines. If we keep Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky for a while, we have the potential for essentially a 3 line team with 2 sets designed to light it up after the vets do the lifting.
ReplyDeleteThis approach would be a no-brainer to competent management. We could direct nearly all energy to acquiring quality D, and cycle cheap FA bit parts in and out of the bottom of the lineup.
Watching Hall this year has been like watching a baby's first year.
ReplyDeleteHe looked awkward at first. He seemed to lose his edges often in the first part of the season. His balance wasn't quite there. He's been getting stronger and stronger on his skates and protects himself and the puck very well.
If he wins the Calder the media will have gotten it right. Forget Couture, Skinner and all them other posers. It probably won't happen unless he elevates his game even more (which is not out of the question given the progression so far).
I see him settling in at 4th on the all-time list just ahead of Glenn Anderson.
Sum - sure but we have two more years where the kids are on their ELCs, no need to shed salary now.
ReplyDeleteIf in the summer of 2013 they look like they are going to have issues then they can make some moves to shed salary.
If you have a good club (or terrible management) then you are probably going to have cap issues. If the Oilers trade for Schenn, lets say, and he makes the club next fall well then his ELC would be up in 2014 and he might need to get paid as well.
Good players good players good players!!!!!!!
keep them.
Get yourself into a position of strength.
Someone said in the thread last night that the Oilers have seven top nine forwards now. Why move two of them? Why move one if you can get them both signed, unless you are bringing back a guy who can play now on D or at C?
Keep them. You have seven now. If Omark can play then you have eight. Then you just need a ninth. lets say for giggles that Lander can play.
Now two years from now Hamilton is ready, maybe Hartkainen.
Suddenly you have eleven top nine forwards.
Guess what? That means you are Chicago, who had Troy Brouwer on the fourth line last year in the playoffs after scoring 22 goals.
If you can afford them you are set until you cannot. If not then you can talk about moving guys.
Black Dog
ReplyDeleteI guess. You make a pretty compelling argument. I see your point and I agree with you.
Was just looking at Schenn v. Hemsky - though I would share:
ReplyDeleteHemsky (13th overall)
Draft yr Hull 68G 36-64-100 +14
01-02 Hull 53G 27-70-97 +26
Schenn (5th overall)
Draft yr Brandon 70G 32-56-88 +20
09-10 Brandon 59G 34-65-99 +41
Really not a lot of difference, although slight edge to Hemsky. I'm kind of partial to Schenn because he plays Center, would fit in the same age group as the kids, and because Hemsky is almost guaranteed to be injured for some part of a season.
I was surprised to see how easily Eberle moved past Hemsky in rookie scoring.
Hemsky went
59G 6-24-30 in his rookie yr, then
71G 12-22-34 in his 2nd yr.
Given that we have seen Gagner, Cogs, Nilsson, Hemsky and many other players take a step back in their sophmore seasons, I wonder if people's expectations for next yr for Eberle and Hall are too high.
@ Ducey
ReplyDeleteAles Hemsky 12:04 toi/g
Eberle 17:55
Ducey,
ReplyDeleteDidn't see the Journal quote, that changes things a bit.
I didn't think that Hall was being overtly critical of Khabby, but just expressing happiness that DD was playing, which implied unhappiness with MVP.
Don't forget their overall records:
35 10-26-2 .893SV% 3.33GAA
40 8-7-6 .914SV% 2.78GAA
Points percentage by goalie
35 .289
40 .524
A .534 pts percentage by team would have the Oilers tied with STL for 20th in the league.
Woodguy - I'm immediately suspicious of comparisons of backups to starters, since the former usually play against weaker teams. Do we know whether that's the case with Dubnyk?
ReplyDelete(I still think Khabibulin's terrible, of course, I just suspect that the gulf may not be as wide as it appears.)
SumOil - good point. Eberle has actually played more minutes.
ReplyDeleteDucey,
ReplyDeleteSome of the "sophomore slumps" we see on the Oilers and elsewhere can be easily accounted for by Sh%'s coming back down to earth, from the lucky stratosphere they were in which caused their excellent rookie scoring. (See Cogliano, A.)
But Hall's SH% is pretty low this year at between 10 and 11, last time I checked. (It's average for a decent forward, I guess, but some superstars average a little higher on the SH% over their career at 12+)
If the kid had hit a run of luck with scoring, (the percentages of the guys ahead of him in rookie points are a little inflated, I think.) he'd be the run away favorite for the Calder. Fucking amazing.
---
I was a guy who said given the evidence Seguin and Hall were equally good bets to succeed. I stand by that judgment being rational at the time. We have more info now, but evaluating past judgments as irrational on the basis of new information is wrong. Hindsight is always 20/20, as they say.
That said, Hall's athleticism and skating are really what sets (and set) him apart. And even I -the guy who knows the least about prospects- began to see, around the time of Hall's last CHL playoff, that those aspects made him a can't miss superstar. (Truthfully, I didn't see the same in what I'd seen of Seguin, but I only watched a little bit of a few games that season.)
I think there's a lesson to be learned for this year too. I'm a big numbers guy for evaluating NHL'ers. But with the kids, sometimes skating, size, and athleticism are as important a predictor of their future success as anything. Larsson might not be putting up the numbers, but he has the skating, size, passing. Impressive stuff and maybe it makes him number 1.
That said, I think we're all, as H-bomb pointed out, way ahead of ourselves on Seguin. The kid is cerebral, has all the tools, and may still become Peter Yzerman-Sakic, scoring 90-100 points, winning Boston 3 cups in a row. He's still as on track to do that as he was before he was drafted.
@ Ducey
ReplyDeleteAles Hemsky 12:04 toi/g
Eberle 17:55
Just further proof that Mac-T ruins talent. :)
@SB
ReplyDeletestole the words from my mouth
Thats exactly what i was implying
Steve Bernier on waivers. Big body with decent hands and is RFA this summer. Makes a bit too much money ($2m), but isn't that a guy we should look at to add size to our bottom 6?
ReplyDeleteJoe Thornton, rookie season: 55 GP-3G-4A
ReplyDeleteProbably a little early to discount Seguin. He could still turn out better than Hall, though at this point the preponderance of the evidence certainly points in the other direction.
Steve,
ReplyDelete...I'm immediately suspicious of comparisons of backups to starters, since the former usually play against weaker teams.
1. The league has more parity than ever. I'd say the effect you're pointing at is very weak.
2. Dubnyk has played: CBJ, CAR, NJD, CHI, PHX, ANA, PHX, SJS, MTL, VAN, LAK, COL, NYI, SJS, LAK, NSH, PHX, STL, NSH, CHI, ANA, ATL, COL
It looks like he got some easier games, e.g. NYI, CBJ. But he also saw CHI, SJS, VAN over a number of games.
Kovalev to the Pens, per some Sens fan in my Facebook feed (and confirmed by TSN, if you don't find him reliable).
ReplyDeletefor a 7th!!! wow
ReplyDeleteWow - I guess with the Sens being a non-playoff team and him being an impending UFA, they were right to take the best (only?) offer to come along, but at that return you almost feel, against logic, that they might as well have just kept him.
ReplyDeleteNot that they're comparable players (or on comparable contracts), but this doesn't bode well for Hemsky's value, does it? In the alternative, it does bode well for us keeping him.
Kovy had a NTC. Could be the only place he would go.
ReplyDeleteAdvantage Shero.
Kovy had a NTC.
ReplyDeleteAh - that does rather change things.
@ kris:
ReplyDeleteSeguin may or may not be on track. On the one hand, he's having to play himself into a deep contending lineup. On the other hand, he might be not developing as a hockey player during a critical phase of his career.
Hall gets to play on the worst team in the NHL. No big defensive assignments to blow, to get benched over. He gets every possible chance to succeed. Now we can agree he's succeeding, and most of the posters in here can tell he's going to be something very very special.
Your analysis re young players is outstanding, btw.
Taylor Halls shooting % is 11.7 as of right now.
ReplyDelete"Anon 2 - why not keep Penner and Hemsky? I don't understand why the emergence of the kids means these guys are expendable. What is wrong with having lots of good players on the team?"
ReplyDeleteExactly!! We should be trading FOR Pens and Hemmer, not trading them AWAY.
Side note; I can't believe people are talking about moving Penner, like he is some kind of replaceable player. He's not. He is a completely unique player who has no comparison and moving him would be the next big mistake.
Oh, this makes the Kovalev deal better: "If Pittsburgh wins the first round of the playoffs and Kovalev plays in at least fifty percent of the games, the pick becomes a sixth-round selection."
ReplyDeleteWell then.
Pat: Don't even need to re-sign Hemsky & Penner. Have them ride with the young uns one more time next year and then trade their rights for bullets for MBS's gun.
ReplyDeleteHall, Eberle and co. will be ready to go by their own in 12-13 and a few more rookies should be on their second season by then too. So there. Don't sign them, just ride their 4 million contracts to the playoffs.
and I should add: let somebody else pay them 5+ millions for their 30+ decline. Players fade past 30 all the time.
ReplyDeleteLT you may be tired of answering this one: Any update on when we can get the archive of your saturday radio show?
ReplyDeleteSteve Bernier is a guy I might take a chance on. Big guy with a bit of an edge.
ReplyDeleteHe has shown some soft hands in the past. He'd be an upgrade over Jacques. He could be serviceable in the top 9 if you do trade Penner.
Looking at his boxcars it seems like he's softened up a bit. Maybe that's why he's available.
He's RFA after this season so he might be worth a gamble. It looks like nobody claimed Zherdev so I guess the chances are slim the Oilers would look at Bernier.
"He'd be an upgrade over Jacques".
ReplyDeleteMy Dad's 1960's 2 dimensional(made out of tin, Leafs v Habs) table hockey players would be an upgrade over Jacques.
The funniest thing I ever learned about Kovalev came from an ex-NHLer who was a teammate of Kovalev's. The player was telling a story about how Kovalev as a rookie was busting his balls every shift of every game. The player, then an experienced veteran with several cup rings, told him that he needed to take it down a few notches. Relax a little sometimes he said, the season is long and the playoffs come around too.
ReplyDelete...sometimes I wonder if he ruined Kovalev. ;)
Olivier:
ReplyDeleteI think there's something to be said for the smarts and experience that come with age.
A 4 or 5 year deal for Hemsky to take him to 33 or 34 years old wouldn't be the worst thing. If the cap hit is around $5 million.
His production should stay pretty consistent and he still could explode a la Sedin.
We know that Hemsky and Penner are quality. We don't know what the next wave of youngins will bring and I'd rather have the kind of depth where you offence doesn't just come from Hall and Eberle.
Woodguy:
ReplyDeleteThey have the centre Hall needs in the system - Paajarvi - and he has all the tools of the trade, he just needs to be allowed to use them.
hunter: I know it was kind of stating the obvious. However, if management is in love with Jacques' toolbox maybe they might be tempted by adding Bernier at his expense.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to Hall becoming the C?
ReplyDeleteBernier is interesting. He is 6'2" and 216. A giant on the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteHe had 101pts! in his draft year in the Q and was a first rounder. His next two seasons in the Q his points went down (80 something then 70 something).
Then he gets 42pts in 49 games in the AHL and has been in the NHL since. He has been on 4 teams already. He had an eye injury last year.
He has all the tools apparently, but must have some character issues or something because he has never produced. Getting waived by Florida is not exactly a selling point, although they may have done it to save some $.
He is not a JFJ replacement as he doesn't appear to fight (ok JFJ doesn't either :-)). He would appear to be a very expensive Ryan Jones or Ryan Omarra.
The Bernier pickup makes a lot of sense: we audition him for the rest of the year, and then if we don't like what we see we just don't qualify him. The only risk is the opportunity cost (i.e. if we're playing him, we can't play JFJ or MacIntyre whoever) and whatever's left of his actual salary this year.
ReplyDeleteBernier is old whatshisname, man my memory is getting terrible.
ReplyDeleteYou know, the guy who played for the Oilers just before the lockout, big body winger who bounced around, everyone figured they'd be the team where he would finally blossom. And he never did.
Bernier is the same. Just a tease. Don't bother.
As for Kovalev he has been absolutely terrible this year, he's not the guy he once was.
Well, to be fair, picking up up players for nothing, who will likely take jobs away from our 2s and 3s could impact our draft position. Also, by claiming a player, we lose priority on the waiver wire.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, take him and walk away giggling...
@ Steve: I hear you about auditioning Bernier, but isn't that part of the problem with guys like him? They do good in the audition, get the contract and then disappear.
ReplyDeleteSee: Nilsson, Robert
Black Dog: Brad Isbister?
ReplyDeleteFair point.
Black Dog: Josh Green? Wasn't just before the lockout, but sounds about right otherwise.
ReplyDeleteOilerdago: Well, as I've mentioned before, I suspect that this "guys play better in contract years" thing is mostly the product of observation bias, so I don't put a lot of stock in it. That's just a guess at this point, though.
Right, Isbister. That's a much better guess.
ReplyDeleteThe Montreal Canadiens have acquired defenceman Brent Sopel and forward Nigel Dawes from the Atlanta Thrashers in exchange for forward prospect Ben Maxwell and a fourth round draft pick - TSN
ReplyDeleteAh, Brad Isbister. I remember him positively dominating a Saturday night game against Dallas in March 2003 shortly after we acquired him.
ReplyDeleteAfter that....a whole lot of nothing.
Svatos picked up by OTT on waivers.
ReplyDeleteHopefully, he leads them to many victories this season.
@ Steve Smith: It could be observation bias - no doubt. But when you have a guy who's bounced around a lot you don't re-sign him.
ReplyDeleteBut since he is playing for a contract, you give him the opportunity to show the drive he's lacked - just don't expect him to keep it up long-term.
Second best Oiler? Ever? Wow. That's like promoting a young mathematician as sure to be remembered as the second smartest Greek man.
ReplyDeleteI'd be happy if Hall turns out to be the second smartest Greek man since the fall of Rome. It'll burn off most of his ELC just to match Ryan Smyth's hockey pants. Which brings up a sore point. Why haven't we retired Ryan Smyth's hockey pants? It won't even cost us a jersey number.
I'm having some fun lately tracking ppg totals of the top five Oiler rookies (>9 GP) against a pair of Sedins. Big cheers when the rookies post a five point night. Frowns of dissonance when I see Horpensky tic-tac-toe on the box score. "How does that help the team?" I ask myself from behind a thick pair of rebuild goggles.
All we need to win the rookie vs Sedin ppg sweepstakes by the end of the season is for Jeff Petry to come up and have a three point night and high-event Omark to earn more ice time. But Renney just doesn't seem to get it, like he's got some other agenda.
Habs were pitching Maxwell to oil at one point. Looking for Penner in the deal.
ReplyDelete- A tweet by Ryan Rishaug
Maxwell is 22 and hasn't yet hit a point per game in the AHL. How exactly would he have been the basis of a Penner trade? I'm glad 3.0 said no but I will be worried right through Monday. I'm officially on the keep 83 and 27 bandwagon.
ReplyDeleteHorcoff-Hemsky-Penner is to Hall-Eberle as Naslund-Morrison-Bertuzzi were to the Sedins.
Yep Isbister.
ReplyDeleteAnyhow that's Bernier and plenty of other guys, big guys with no consistency and meh results. Every once in a while they tease you and some GM figures if we get that guy we can make him into Gordie Howe.
He just needs the right coach, don't you know?
;)
I can't wait to see Crosby get back and to see if he can actually get Kovalev to actually give a fuck for the last few games of the season.
ReplyDeleteI know the guy's old and the tires are getting worn but if you can't get up to play with the best player in the world then you are truly the apathetic fuck that everyone always said you were.
I imagine it will be Kunitz-Crosby-Kovalev and ?-Staal-Neal.
I hope LA or Pit picks up Reasoner as well and then I'll have someone to latch onto for the playoffs.
Olivier - If you're suggesting that the Oilers keep 83 & 27 for another year and trade them at the deadline next year, that's the worst thing they can do in my opinion. They won't ever be worth more than they are right now - with a season and a bit and 2 playoffs still on their contracts. If they deadline passes and they are still Oilers, they are diminishing assets until the time they sign their next contract. If v3.0 keeps them he better be positive that they are going to resign with the Oil. Holding off a year if you know they don't fit with the age cluster will lead to a lesser return and will add to the time frame when the return will be able to contribute to success on the ice.
ReplyDeleteSo I expect v3.0 to let the deadline pass, spend another year evaluating and flip them both at the deadline next year.
Habs were pitching Maxwell to oil at one point. Looking for Penner in the deal.
ReplyDeleteHow is this possible.
Montreal: "Hey Edmonton are you intersested in Ben Maxwell?"
Steve: "Well gosh darn Montreal I'm not too sure. Who are you interested in?
Montreal: "Maybe we can work something out for Dustin Penner."
Steve: "I don't know. Mr. Lowe is out at a breakfast arena thing and I can't sign off on something like that."
Montreal: "Well I guess we'll take Brent Sopel instead. YOUR LOSS!"
They just need Malkin to come back to turn the KLM line into the KCM line. Could be good.
ReplyDeleteBen Maxwell....Exciting.
Wow, the Habs thought Maxwell was the basis of a deal for Penner?
ReplyDeleteGo
fuck
yourself.
I can't believe they'd even have the balls to chair that idea.
O: that's not a terrible way of thinking about the future but one of those guys should be signed because right now we have depth for next year and we have some guys in the pipe but does any of what we have left on the farm project to be as good as 27 and 83?
There's hope Because the kids are coming along with the 10 line and that gives us balance. You take away some of the vets or even let them walk next year and you're expecting Hamilton and martindale and hartikianen to be as good as 27-83
that's unlikely to happen.
what should happen is keep one of those and then deal off some of the talented kids when vets like Ladd shake loose from teams like the Hawks.
once again, you can't have enough good players.
Dennis: I'm pretty sure "enough good players" is actually a relative term, best understood in the proper context. You should be ashamed for not acknowledging this yourself: Kevin Lowe expressly stated that having "enough" of these "good" "players" is actually unacceptable until 4-6 years from now. If you would be a good fan and just accept this as gospel (JOIN US!) you would sleep better at night and all of yours sins would be forgiven and you would have 1st class tickets on the space shuttle.
ReplyDeleteSH: my 30's have calmed me down but I still think I'd need a sin eater to get me back to even.
ReplyDeletethere's a better chance I end up on Mars
You see, and that's why I'm afraid of turning 30 in 4 years...
ReplyDeleteIf 'sin eaters' existed Charlie Sheen would be gone.
ReplyDeleteDeano: and said "sin eaters" would have post-ingestion herpes.
ReplyDeletetaylor halls gonna get more points then stamkos because A) he's been on the number 1 or 2 line all year. B) the oilers suck
ReplyDelete@Showerhead
ReplyDeleteIs that really a thing? That's ... unpleasant.
c)he's really good
ReplyDelete//Olivier - If you're suggesting that the Oilers keep 83 & 27 for another year and trade them at the deadline next year, that's the worst thing they can do in my opinion.//
ReplyDeleteIn a salary cap system, there is nothing particularly wrong with that option. In a contract year, Hemsky and Penner will likely have monster seasons, and one could likely still get a first round draft pick at the deadline for both. And it still doesn't preclude the option of still signing them. One more full year of "protection" for Hall and Eberle would be nice.
By the end of next year, Hartikainen, Pitlick, Lander, Hamilton, and this years #1 (if a forward) should all be ready or close for NHL jobs.
P.S.
Also. Bernier is like on his 100th team or something already. Colin MacDonald is probably a better option at this point than he is.
WG I hear you there. Broke my ankle at 15. had a cast for 3 weeks, then back playing ball right away. Broke ankle last fall at 41. Six weeks of a cast, two weeks of physio, and still feel sore when on the ice
ReplyDeleteSimmer: For the purposes of my post, no probably not. In reality though, strains of the herpes virus can affect other parts of your body (coldsores on ppl's mouths being the most common). If you ever want to hate yourself for using the internet someday, google some pictures involving herpes and eyes.
ReplyDeleteFun fact: my sister is a doctor in MTL. One day while visiting her, I picked up a random textbook and flipped to a random page in jest, ready to read things aloud and pretend I knew what I was talking about. I think you know where this is going but I was assaulted with full color photos of herpes/syphilis/gonorrhea all over different people's faces - opening that book was one of the worst decisions of my life and I still regret it. Threw the book across the room and knocked a plate off the coffee table.
Oh and hey, if you're out there Pat, thanks for recommending Dieu du Ciel all those months ago - a great little place with friendly staff, a diverse selection of beer I'd never heard of, and a wine with my same first name.
ReplyDeleteHaha. Sounds like the time I played balderdash with a medical encyclopedia. Not as much fun as I had first hoped.
ReplyDeleteGodot: Some (or I guess possibly all) of those players you mention could be ready for the bigs, but I guarantee you that none of them will be able to replace Penner or Hemsky, with the very unlikely yet technically possible exception of this year's number one.
ReplyDeleteAdam
ReplyDeleteYou also get $8.35 million in cap space to help replace Hemsky and Penner, plus the draft picks they would bring at the deadline.
Hemsky and Penner might end up wanting to test the market after initial negotiations this summer.
Note: I am not advocating this option. I am just saying it is not a terrible option if the Oilers go into next season without new contracts for Hemsky and Penner.
The only terrible option for Hemsky and Penner is making a bad trade.
@Adam
ReplyDeleteThat's not a guarantee you can make. Those are nice prospects. None will grow to 6'4" 245lb but there's a reasonable chance that one of them could contribute as much as Penner. And to imply that it's unlikely that one of RNH/SC/Larsson/Landeskog will be as good for the Oilers as Hemsky/Penner is a dubious claim. I call bs.
Crazy Coach: I'll bet money you weighed a lot less at 15 than 41.
ReplyDeletePart of what makes the youthfulness of youth is the fact they don't weigh as much, which allows them greater gravitational freedom.
Another reason why men generally prefer oogling 16 year old girls over 40 year old women, lol.
PS: Showerhead wine?
Well, late to the party again...
ReplyDeleteRidder Guy: No, not the trade deadline, I meant after the season. You can get a 2nd rounder for the right to talk to these guys once the season is done.
But, as Dennis and other said, YNHEGP.
Also, it's not like all of the kid are getting 5+ millions in two years, so...
Hunter oh yes just a few pounds (70) heavier now. I would like to believe that I can produce more torque now and my bones can't handle it just as much as I wish my body still has muscle.
ReplyDeleteGD: I believe you are falling into the trip of either undervaluing what our vets can do or thinking that all our prospects will pan out to the degree of 27 or 83.
ReplyDeleteLet's see those guys produce because you start believing in them.
SH: I remember it was the summer I was 32 when I stopped being able to drink three nights in a row and fully function. I felt it coming on that spring but I powered through until the summer was over:)
Now, I can still do it - we had a reunion in our small community this summer where I drank seven days in a row - but then I was 10 days getting over it once I stopped.
10 days.
The morale of my story? Live-it- the-fuck-up while you can.
And also that people like Lemmy should be studied in order to extract from them whatever makes them able to stand up to years of excessive partying.
id take Zherdev anyday over Bernier! awesome skillset, 4th pick overall. I could guarentee more points then Jacques!
ReplyDeletewhy do u guys wanna pay so much for Brayden Schenn???? Hemsky why? Your better off moving Penner to Florida for there 1st round pick.
Take Larsson with your pick and with Florida's pick take Ryan Strome. Sign Hemsky. He is an absolute magician out there. If you dont like Strome take Hopkins. Hopkins and Strome are both better at this age then Schenn was. Schenn was 19 playing against boys at the WJC. Thats why he dominated, both Hall and Seguin would have had the same point totals. Your better off stealing other players from those loaded L.A. Kings. or better yet, why not under pay for a player who is Brayden Schenn developed "Paul Stastny" give Colorado a package involving Sam Gagner. Stastny is a #1 Centre. Gagner isnt and Schenn may possibly never be either. Id be more interested in seeing Stastny centre a line of Hemsky and Magnus. that would take pressure off another line of Hall and Eberle and whoever U find to centre them.
@anonymous
ReplyDeleteI like all your ideas. I'll get the chloroform, you start writing the ransom notes. We'll rob those dumb gms blind! This game's easy!
I was wondering how we were going to convince Tallon he should deal his #1 to us.
ReplyDeleteThere was a time when TSN would put all the games they covered on their website for a couple of days. I can't find last nights game on-demand, anyone have an idea if its available somewhere and I'm missing it?
ReplyDeleteStillman traded fro Ryan Carter and a 5th.
ReplyDeleteCrazyCoach: 70 pounds wtf is nearly half the body weight of the average American man in the 1860's. That extra weight alone provides lots of torque, but the increased demands on the bones as you mention forces the muscles to work all that much harder, and unless you're involved in some form of extreme physical activity(like NHL hockey), the metabolic rate slows down, the muscles turn into fat, and suddenly the entire body from bones to nerves to organisms get put under all kinds of stress.
ReplyDeleteOne of the saddest trends in the past years is the idea that men should be the weight of pro athletes. So much so that someone with a relatively active lifestyle at 22, by 35 is already turning into what can only be classified as a blob.
I know an old ex-OHL hockey player who dropped 30 pounds off his playing weight of 190, and now weighs 160 and is perfectly healthy. Instead of becoming obese, and older from it, this guy actually has managed to turn back the clock so to speak.
He still makes poor decisions in the offensive zone caughing up the puck regularly, on top of that if you work the numbers game for game Eberly is ahead of him and if he ws a great finisher - not just an average finisher he would have 30 goals by now. On the positive he does have speed, sometimes he looks like he's not sure where he's going or what he's going to do, but he's moving fast. Overall, hes a decent player as a rookie, his feet are to fast for his head.
ReplyDeletecsimpson
ReplyDeleteI think the NHL controls online broadcasts via nhl.com-you have to subscribe and then you have access to past games.
TSN may have done it in the past,but I don't think it's available now..someone will correct me if I'm wrong.
http://blogs.denverpost.com/avs/2011/02/20/avs-now-with-five-centers-whos-going-to-go/6559/
ReplyDeleteFound this link while going through Friedman's Monday column.
Avs are looking to blow it up real good.
Just listening to Mirtle and Duhatschek podcast. Interesting bit on Hemmer:
ReplyDeleteDuhatschek saying that one deal for Hemsky, that he knows of in particular, broke down last week because of Oilers holding to their extremely high demands.
Also commented that players around the league (cited Iginla and Sakic) rave about Hemsky.
Duhatschek saying that one deal for Hemsky, that he knows of in particular, broke down last week because of Oilers holding to their extremely high demands.
ReplyDeleteWell, credit where it's due: all the evidence we have points to Tambellini handling this the way most of us think he should.
Agree, Steve.
ReplyDeleteMy only worry is that the last couple days I've started to come across at least 3 or 4 suggestions (forget where I saw them at this point) that suddenly Hemsky for Schenn straight-up is now a fair deal from the Oilers perspective. That feels like negotiating in reverse.
Two weeks ago it was Schenn, Forbort and a #1 or go fuck yourself. It feels like a lot of the MSM have taken Lombardi's refusal to consider dealing Schenn and inflated his value because of it...to the point of thinking he's equal value.
Let's hope Tambellini's resolve holds through Monday.
Olivier makes some very good points. I still think you try to sign 27 and 83 though. If they're signed through 33-34 they should be able to cover the bet depending on the contract. I think they're very likely to remain first line producers for the next four years, which would overlap very nicely with the kids.
ReplyDelete"He still makes poor decisions in the offensive zone coughing up the puck regularly"
ReplyDeleteHe's a teenaged rookie - learning how to deal with the top league in the world.
"On top of that if you work the numbers game for game Eberle is ahead of him..."
Eberle is also a blue chip top prospect - one of the very best in the NHL today. No harm in that. Eberle is also older for what it's worth.
"and if he was a great finisher - not just an average finisher he would have 30 goals by now."
He's a ROOKIE. And 'average' finishers don't get 21 goals 3/4 into the season. Fail.
"on the positive he does have speed, sometimes he looks like he's not sure where he's going or what he's going to do, but he's moving fast"
He's a ROOKIE.
"Overall he's a decent player as a rookie, his feet are too fast for his head"
Please tell us what solar system you're from, because if Hall's only 'decent' then your planet must have a red sun.
It is a terrifying, terrifying thing when Hunter is the voice of reason on Taylor Hall.
ReplyDeleteIs it wrong to think that we might be okay just staying the course? Hold onto Hemsky and Penner, draft RNH/Couturier/Larsson, and add an UFA centre/defenceman (depending on the pick) and this team might make some noise next year.
ReplyDeleteI can see the allure in moving a winger to procure that centre or defenceman, but there are other ways to procure that asset without selling the known NHL-quality assets we currently have.
Also, bonus points to Hunter if that is indeed a Krypton reference as I think it is.
ReplyDeleteWasn't it Gretzky who said Hemsky was the best passer in the league just a few years ago?
ReplyDeleteIs it wrong to think that we might be okay just staying the course? Hold onto Hemsky and Penner, draft RNH/Couturier/Larsson, and add an UFA centre/defenceman (depending on the pick) and this team might make some noise next year.
ReplyDeleteAs I've said before, my dream for next year is to start the season with no rookies: we seem very likely to already have Hall, Eberle, MPS, Omark, Peckham and probably at least two of Petry, Chorney, and Reddox. Add to that Dubnyk as our de facto top goaltender and Gagner and probably one of Cogliano and Brule, and that's a stupidly inexperienced team. I didn't want to start the season with Hall in the NHL, but besides the contract considerations surrounding that one, next year's pick would be joining an even more inexperienced team than this year's, and by all accounts isn't as good as Taylor Hall (who, recall, himself struggled in the early part of the season). And if it's Larsson, he doesn't even need to be relegated to junior.
Besides that, I think we need at least one more defenseman than you're suggesting, and ideally a solid third line winger too. And an upgrade at goalie, but that's obviously not in the cards.
@ Steve Smith:
ReplyDeleteNot at all. I just grew up during the dynasty. When you get see a team so ridiculously good that players like Messier and Anderson are reduced to 2nd line roles, you learn an awful lot re whatever constitutes a good hockey player.
@ jon K:
: p
Well, the last comment of yours I remember no Taylor Hall was that he and Eberle would be two thirds of the Canadian Olympic team's top line for a generation, which rather understandably persuaded me that you were a raving space loon on the subject of Taylor Hall.
ReplyDeleteBut in this exchange, you were making sense. Maybe I'm drunk.
Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky
ReplyDeleteGagner-Hall-Eberle
Reasoner-MPS-Dvorak
Cogliano-Jones-Reddox
Basically what Dennis suggested awhile back. It's not bad, you know.
@Badseed
ReplyDeleteGretzky on Hemsky:
http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=33833
LT: I think adding Reasoner and Dvorak-types makes Reddox a bit expendable. I'd be happy with much of that lineup and see what it takes to get a Jared Boll or David Clarkson. If that takes Cogliano, than you find a 4C with some size and we look a little more balanced and physical.
ReplyDeleteExchaning Clarkson for Cogliano would be ideal. I'm just not sold on Cogs as an energy player but he would offer great versatility for times when Renney wanted to tinker with his lines.
ReplyDeleteOf the ex-Oilers we could hypothetically bring back for a second tour of duty this summer Reasoner, Dvorak and Brewer have to be at the top of the list. We do need some checkers/penalty killers and a top four dman in a bad way.
ReplyDeleteShowerhead - very good, glad you enjoyed it, their beer was actually available here for a couple of months recently in the LCBO, I stocked up.
ReplyDelete30 is fuck all my friend, still just a kid. When you get on the wrong side of 40 though, well the hearing is going, I need glasses and my knees are a bit iffy too. Slowing down a bit but still can drink and have a bit of the eee-eee eee-eee though, so not dead yet.
Anyone seen this:
ReplyDeletehttp://evenstrength.com/nhl/2011/02/24/hemsky-goin-hollywood
is it legit?
Listen: after this past week, Hemsky and the Oilers have nothing to prove to anybody out there. iF LOMBARDI is afraid to add a suitable package together or an overpriced one for Hemsky, well then so be it. Hemsky is the most talented player availible this deadline. ya ya ya you can all say Richards is. Is he really? do u think a concussed UFA like Richards is gonna garner a package higher then Hemsky? WHY would Lombardi trade a significant return to Dallas to get a guy who may play 10 games for them and the Kings could potentially still miss the playoffs and then have Richards say "My agent and I decided at the time of the trade my mind wasnt all there" We have decided to test the free agent market anyway. LOL If Mr. Lombardi doesnt have a package that resembles anything not looking like Schenn, Forbort and Toffoli then you tell him to enjoy the golfing at the end of the regular season. HEMSKY is the jewel of this trade deadline. I dont want the Oilers to move him but with a package like above, that would be the only way. I would rather sign him to a beauty of a long term deal at around the money Perry and Getzlaf got. The players the Oilers should be moving are the Gagners and Omarks. If you havent realized that Hall, Eberle and Magnus are 3 of the Top 6 moving forward then Wake UP. Keep Hemsky, move Penner, Gagner and Omark and you will find that beloved Dman you so much Covet.
ReplyDeleteC Simpson: Looks deliberately vague, but we need to keep a watchful eye.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, I think I'm a little jumpy. Trade deadline day has turned into deadline week. I will remain vigil...employment be damned.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous:
ReplyDeleteIs there really such a thing as a beauty long-term contract for a guy who has missed 113 games over the last 5 seasons? If it happens, we'll all be doing a lot of finger crossing over the course of the deal.
I feel like the French in war.
ReplyDeleteI feel like the French in war.
ReplyDeleteShort-lived?
Practicing surrender (and waiting for Steve Tambellini to point cannons in the wrong direction).
ReplyDeleteMight as well complete the analogy and get drunk.
ReplyDeleteya the contracts the 3 Ducks have signed are pretty sweet deals. Those contracts will ensure that the team can build around the 3 players and always ice a competitive team. When u have contracts like paying a guy 5.4 million to play in the AHL and 5.5 million to a guy to babysit a few kids while they develop. These are dangerous contracts and if we could lock up Hemsky at 5 million for another 5 years, I dont think you would have too many questioning his inability to play a full season when he turns Hall and Eberle into 35+ goal scorers.
ReplyDeleteI just hope Stu doesn't turn out like this.
ReplyDeleteI can deal with him missing 15 games a year. It's the years when be might only play 15 games or miss the playoffs when we start making them again that would have me worried.
ReplyDeleteActually, this is a better rendition of what I hope Stu doesn't turn out as.
ReplyDeleteSo far Stu's been more this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7FdJajqxmU
than Maginot. Could be Hall/Pajaarvi's theme song.
Has anyone looked at the corsi stats for the Oilers as of late? There are some pleasant surprises, especially with regards to a Teddy Peckman.
ReplyDeleteOohhh forgot about this one:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1k61lRvGRSU
@ Badseed
ReplyDeleteWasn't it also Gretzky that said "Yeah I can coach..."
(had to be said)
Gretzky's comments about other players are more positive than Prendergast's. Its not a true indicator.
ReplyDeleteGoals win games: hall and eberle's desjardins said potential 30 goal scorers.
ReplyDeleteIn the CHL this year:
There are 4 players that desjardins says 30G potential.
Mackenzie rank:
#3 Landeskog 31g 26A 6'0" nov. 92 RW
#9 Huberdeau 35G 50A 6'1" jul 93 C
#18 Puempel 30G 30A 6'0" jan 93 LW
#42 khoklachev 35G 35A 5'10" sep 93 C
if koklachev is three weeks older he is in next years draft.
1st pick Larsson
2nd Khoklachev I wish? he will climb!
"Please Mister Lombardi, we understand that Gretzky couldn't win you your cup and we feel so terrible about it. Please take our best player since fuck knows when for magic beans, to help make sure you guys finally bring home the bacon"
ReplyDelete*Kevin Lowe, and his batman*
PS: We also have some wonderful young players coming down the pipeline, and after uncle Slats takes his pick of the litter we promise you are next in line
So it turns out that Tim Horton died after crashing his sports car at 100 mph while being chased by the cops on the QEW, full of (amphetamines)speed and all the while swigging out of a bottle of bottle of vodka.
ReplyDeleteI can only hope I can check out with such style.
PS: From what I heard growing up, Horton was like a 4x6 sheet of plywood on defence, even in his 40's.
Thing about the whole Ctl deal is maybe it didn't seem crazy to them...
ReplyDeletetwo years ago who knows what Dithers was peddling Penner for. Hell MSM in these parts were busy pencil whipping articles about how Penner, + 3.5 mil cap space, + bare minimum two 2nd overall picks worth of assets for Danny "Non cancerous, team playing, complete forward" Heatley.
(Note: No titles were ever given but in a bizzaro world I would have loved to watch the circus at work with Heatley and Souray sounding off by years end!)
Who knows how low he was selling on Penner. They had no trouble letting him be repeatedly run over by the interview buses.
Also, could it be possible that large quanities of shiny stones might assumed to be over-valued by
brain-trust?
A deal with Maxwell isn't neccessary a slight against Penner as much as it is against Prestige Worldwide.
sorry that should have said two 2nd round picks not overall. Maybe my subconcious tapped into said bizzarro universe!
ReplyDeleteI wonder if we could get a first round pick for Taylor Hall?
ReplyDeletebookie: We will, give it time.
ReplyDeleteTim Horton played forever and he was still effective when he was in Buffalo. I've read many accounts of his style and Horton was apparently the strongest defenseman of his era. Once he had you in his clutches along the boards, it was pretty much lights out.
Lowetide: What's your take on Smid?
ReplyDeleteI can't help thinking he's somewhat of a shmuck. I don't want to think this, but he hasn't progressed much, and always seems to be on the receiving end of bad things.
hunter: I've always liked him. :-)
ReplyDeleteLT: I like that lineup because it adds the vet centre we need - Reasoner's having his second really good year in the last three seasons - plus another plus player on the RW and two guys that can PK.
ReplyDeleteSo those two guys plus 28/85 and 10/27 and we've got six PKers and we can push the pace in that regard and be aggressive.
Note: I also think the speed and smarts make 91 a good PK option as well.
And then we've got Hartkainen and Hamilton down in the A and they're the guys who are pushing and keeping everyone honest up top. Both guys seem like players and young Hamilton seems to be right out of the Simmonds handbook as a guy who's attributes and smarts could see him make the jump straight from junior. He's a guy I'm really excited to see just because of what he brings that we don't have right now: PK ability and size and grind.
On the D I'm having 6-77 as vets and 49-58 as the 5th and 6th D and that means we need two real D to round out our top four.
I would try and make Erhoff or Bieksa one of those via the FA market.
Anyway, the point being that adding Reasoner-Dvorak while keeping 27-83 plus the maturation of the three kids means there's no need for us to flush 2012.
We've got some kids in the pipe and hopefully Larsson to join and let's get to competing.
Dennis. right on
ReplyDeleteAgree on the D Dennis-Whitney first pairing minutes and Gilbert second pairing and the rest fill out the bottom pair.That leaves Smid looking for a spot and I'm afraid 1 of those 2 D will come from a trade and Smid is the player to be moved.
ReplyDeleteIf they want another lottery pick next year they can just run with what we've got under the guise of development and nobody will question them--and we do have some nice pieces coming along and maybe Larsson at the draft...but that's not going to win us any hockey games this October.
Oh boy...another late goal for LA in a tight 3rd period.I was really hoping the Kings had a bit of a swoon this last week just to see a bead of sweat on Lombardi's brow-but the Kings keep plugging along.
ReplyDeleteEx-Oilers helping our cause Gerta. Smyth and Greene with late penalties, with an assist to a near-sighted ref.
ReplyDeleteGo Minny. Ugh, I just threw up in my mouth a bit.
Whoops-now THAT was an empty net goal.
ReplyDeleteLowetide said...
ReplyDeletebookie: We will, give it time.
Tim Horton played forever and he was still effective when he was in Buffalo. I've read many accounts of his style and Horton was apparently the strongest defenseman of his era. Once he had you in his clutches along the boards, it was pretty much lights out.
I've read a lot of articles and seen an lot of inteviews with players from that era that echo that sentiment. Apparently when Horton thought thing were getting out of hand, he'd just pick the biggest, meanest looking SOB and hug him. I kid you not, apparently from those he unleashed this on, you could struggle and holler all you wanted it was no good. Eventually all you could do was go limp and cool down so he'd let you go.