When I was a kid, there were 12 teams and the good clubs had maybe one or two new guys at the most each season. Toronto had a bunch in the late 60s, that was probably the first crew I can remember following. That's the Jim Dorey-Rick Ley bunch. Pelyk was supposed to be the best of the bunch but it didn't turn out that way at all.
That's sort of the reason for this post. Looking at the Oilers young defensemen currently--the group that includes Peckham, Petry, Chorney, Plante, Motin--we could probably choose one or two as favorites but injuries, luck, timing, desire and coaching bias all contribute to those 5 kids and their future. And even though Plante hasn't seen the NHL this season and Motin looks like he's fading, that's just what we see right now. You never know which kid is going to have the light go on and which kid is going to destroy a knee.
Injuries. Luck. Timing, Desire.
Confidence.
Watching Jeff Petry on the weekend, you could see the kid was a deer in the headlights; it was a far cry from the "puck poise" he displayed when called up. The Oilers sent him down and recalled a former deer in the headlights, Taylor Chorney. Chorney's first game with the Oilers this time around was impressive. Scored on the PP, added an assist and played almost 19 minutes; even for the night. Confidence. Sometimes it's easy to forget the power of confidence, especially when it comes to youth.
--
I have an email address for the Nation Radio show now. It's nationradio@theteam1260.com and should be ready to roll now. I'm still lining up guests for the weekend, but have confirmed Gabriel Desjardins from behind the net as one of the guests. I'll only have about 15 minutes, but will ask as many questions as time will allow. Shoot me an email if there's something you'd like to know and we'll get it from Mr. Desjardins.
It is nice to see Chorney put in a good performance and get a goal. Maybe he'll have some sustain this time (but the hole the D starts in this year suggests he will have his confidence thoroughly crushed too).
ReplyDeleteAnd this post goes x23 for goalies (with luck and dumb luck factoring in).
Good luck with the radio show.
ReplyDeletePlus the Blades play the Tigers tonight on Sportsnet so you can get in your Oiler prospect fix.
I'm so happy you've got an email address. Mirtle emailed the other day looking for one for you because of a bounce back. I feel like a secretary.
ReplyDeleteYou should moderate an arena segment some time LT. Maybe invite someone like Staples and me or AG to debate the point. It'd be fun. ;)
Get Campbell on the show with MC.
ReplyDeleteMC: I'm planning to ask you to come on the show, but not for arena stuff. It doesn't test well. :-)
ReplyDeleteLT: Heh. Funny. I've heard Stauffer and Gregor mention on many occasions that what makes great radio is disagreement and yet when I listen to arena stuff, I've yet to hear a disagreement beyond whether the money should be transferred to Katz by hundreds of guys shoveling it into a dump truck or whether some sort of machinery should be employed to fill the dump truck.
ReplyDeleteMC: It'll get interesting when Katz calls Mayflower moving.
ReplyDeleteLT: You think the play's pretty clear eh? I think it's Hamilton. In order to have a realistic threat, he needs a market and an arena deal that beats his current deal at Rexall. The only one that's even remotely plausible, IMO, is Hamilton. There's already a guy in Quebec who is tied into the rink and wants to own the team. KC is a privately managed building and a lousy market, in all probability.
ReplyDeleteThe only threat I can see making sense is Hamilton. When it comes to that threat - and unless City Council is braindead or gutless, it will come to this - the local rage is going to be a spectacle to behold.
I think Katz should have to go door-to-door and collect it personally from every property owner. He could bring the Oilers' financials just in case his one of his patrons had questions. (Its kind of like the Medici's in reverse)
ReplyDeleteMC: No, I think the deal is going to get done here. The council need to do their due diligence and there will need to be some kind of retirement plan for the Northlands people who won't go over (and will therefore be unemployed) but things are proceeding.
ReplyDeleteThe mayor and council are in very difficult circumstances here, and the delays imo are basically to make certain the public gets the feeling all questions were asked and answered.
But local politicians have long memories, and it never goes well when the mayor denies the Oilers.
Small sample size down the stretch has the potential to be a big factor in EDM's 2011/12 blueline.
ReplyDeleteChorney has to clear waivers at the start of next season. I think one could argue EDM has shown a reluctance to risk waivers on guys like Chorney coming off their ELC if they think they have any sort of long-term pro potential. Those two factors, along with a nice showing down the stretch, might be the ingredients required to see Chorney with a one way contract at a low number next fall.
If they happen to get Larsson in the draft, one could argue it would be too many young D*, but the depth chart might well look like:
Whitney
Gilbert
Smid
Peckham
Larsson
Chorney
Petry
before any trades/UFA signings.
* What I might consider "too mnay" could be different from what management considers too many, especially if they aren't interested in making a full court press for a playoff spot, not spending to teh cap, etc.
Even if, there's probably way more stupid ways the City has spent it's money.
ReplyDeleteSmall sample size down the stretch has the potential to be a big factor in EDM's 2011/12 blueline.
ReplyDeleteChorney has to clear waivers at the start of next season. I think one could argue EDM has shown a reluctance to risk waivers on guys like Chorney coming off their ELC if they think they have any sort of long-term pro potential. Those two factors, along with a nice showing down the stretch, might be the ingredients required to see Chorney with a one way contract at a low number next fall.
If they happen to get Larsson in the draft, one could argue it would be too many young D*, but the depth chart might well look like:
Whitney
Gilbert
Smid
Peckham
Larsson
Chorney
Petry
before any trades/UFA signings.
* What I might consider "too mnay" could be different from what management considers too many, especially if they aren't interested in making a full court press for a playoff spot, not spending to teh cap, etc.
Apparently so, if the mayor 'won' awards for his poor spending habits.
ReplyDeleteBut the compound interest rates on stupid are too good to be ignored.
ReplyDeleteYeah. I don't live in Edmonton so I don't care if their property taxes go up.
ReplyDeleteBUILD ME A COOL RINK!
Small sample size down the stretch has the potential to be a big factor in EDM's 2011/12 blueline.
ReplyDeleteChorney has to clear waivers at the start of next season. I think one could argue EDM has shown a reluctance to risk waivers on guys like Chorney coming off their ELC if they think they have any sort of long-term pro potential. Those two factors, along with a nice showing down the stretch, might be the ingredients required to see Chorney with a one way contract at a low number next fall.
If they happen to get Larsson in the draft, one could argue it would be too many young D*, but the depth chart might well look like:
Whitney
Gilbert
Smid
Peckham
Larsson
Chorney
Petry
before any trades/UFA signings.
* What I might consider "too mnay" could be different from what management considers too many, especially if they aren't interested in making a full court press for a playoff spot, not spending to teh cap, etc.
Smarmy: Idk how about making a deal that would gradually repay the city?
ReplyDeleteInteresting that Hamilton seems to be getting double shifted. That's out of the ordinary.
ReplyDeletefpv that's probably fine and more in line with what I would call an "investment" rather then corporate welfare.
ReplyDeleteHeads up for those with nothing to do tonight. Medicine Hat vs Saskatoon on RSN right now. Bunz against Hamilton. No Pitlick though.
ReplyDeleteMany Edmonton citizens are also apparently pretty clueless, in that they signed the petition to try to reopen the municipal airport decision.
ReplyDeleteThe muni airport imposes high restrictions in the downtown which severely limit downtown Edmonton's property tax revenue potential, and the economics of building in Edmonton's downtown.
The muni airport itself subsidizes Calgary's airport and Calgary businesses at the expense of Edmonton's international airport and Edmonton businesses.
The muni airport also contributes to the urban blighting of the surrounding neighborhoods.
The arena district coupled with the muni airport redevelopment coupled with the northwest LRT line coupled with NAIT expansion coupled with a growing Grant McEwan university redevelops and gentifies a giant pie-shaped swath from the downtown to Castle
Downs.
It will allow Edmonton to have an urban living alternative like Toronto and Vancouver and Montreal in addition to just the suburban low-density "wastelands". And a magnet for preventing young urban professionals from running away to those other centres to find that lifestyle.
The arena is not an item in isolation. You have to look at the arena in the context of the arena district and how the arena district fits into a plan for a whole swath of Edmonton from downtown to the northwest suburbs.
There is a big picture that the short-sighted critics refuse to see because it doesn't fit their narrative.
Is that Schenn kid playin for the Blades an Oiler prospect?
ReplyDeleteI am being cautious about getting too excited about one game from Chorney.. but one thing is for certain, I sure as hell am glad that Strudwick isn't still his D partner up here anymore.
ReplyDeleteIs the podcast of your last show up somewhere? I don't want to fall two episodes behind.
ReplyDeleteLT (or anybody for that matter) -
ReplyDeleteIs there a link anywhere in cyberspace that will allow me to listen to an archived podcast of the inaugural "Nation Radio" show from this Saturday past?
Please and thanks.
Rob in the 403
"Steve Smith" -
ReplyDeleteYou beat me to it...inquiring minds want to know!!!
Rob in the 403
re: Nation Radio show. I know that they're trying to get the show on an archive over at ON.
ReplyDeleteBut I also know that it's not an easy task. 2 hours of radio talk is a whack.
Suspect it'll be up in the next day or so.
If we draft Larsson (which I wouldn't mind), I can't imagine why we would even consider putting him in the NHL lineup. Following Lt's general theme of slow development for defensemen there isn't good reason to expect him to be particularly ready for the NHL like you might a forward. Competent, perhaps.
ReplyDeleteAs well, given that he's playing in Sweden there isn't the usual concern of him being "too good" for junior but not eligible for the AHL.
Larsson will, or at least should have to earn his place up the depth chart, not have it gift-wrapped.
Two things:
ReplyDelete1. LT: is there any way I could phone in for 5 min while Short's on the air and thank him for letting me vent all those years ago?. And I don't even have to phone in just as long as you promise to pass along my thanks and praise to him:)
2. for as much as I want the club to do well down the stretch just so Lowe doesn't have some kind of excuse to get rid of 27 and 83, there's no doubt the D just might be worse when 2-26 are gone and kids like 41-Plante-Petry are put into play.
Fuck, that's gonna be awful.
As far as the Blades are concerned regarding the Oilers.
ReplyDeleteI'd like them to invite Dzuirzynski to camp and to look at drafting Darren Dietz with their 6th or 7th pick.
Dennis: How about this? Next time he's on, I'll give you a head's up and you can call in.
ReplyDeleteJohn's the kind of guy who will probably remember you and then rip off some golden story. :-)
You know what? Leafs are doing that thing in the second half where they starting winning goals.
And the Flamers are on the same plan.
ReplyDeleteI gotta think Kovalev goes to the Kings before Hemsky does. He should be cheaper to acquire and he's off the books at year end, if it doesn't work out.
@LT-
ReplyDeleteAll I want to know is who's that guy in the picture. Might be helpful if you introduced the photo off the top.
*wink*
godot - Presenting Katz's arena as a prerequisite for gentrification is disingenuous.
ReplyDeleteUrban renewal does not begin with a $300MM subsidy to a for-profit corporation owned by a billionaire.
I think getting Kovalev is the sort of thing you get when you're not series about doing anything for the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteHe sucks.
LT: I would appeciate that.
ReplyDeleteDeano,
ReplyDeleteEven Andy Grabia admits that a redeeming feature of the downtown rink is the increase in inner-city population density.
It certainly isn't required, but there is no denying it helps.
Smarmy:
ReplyDeleteAgreed on bringing...um...alphabet to camp. He's the kind of player that the Manitoba Moose/Vancouver Canucks duo would sign to am AHL contract, only to have that blossom in three years into an NHL contract. He's got WHL offense and ornery as hell, which means he's immediately comparable to Rick Rypien or Alex Burrows.
WG - What if increasing inner-city population density was pursued as the goal and not merely a side-effect? How much farther would $300MM of the taxpayer's money go?
ReplyDeleteWas just loking at the standings and saw NJ is now 8 pts ahead of EDM!!!
ReplyDeleteSeems like yesterday EDM has something like 6 pts ahead of NJ, they close that gap in a hurry, and blew right by.
Deano,
ReplyDeleteThat's a tricky question.
Urban renewal/gentrification of the inner city usually is spurred greatly by developers seeing a trend in population movement into an an area. Mass re-development of these areas then kicks it into high gear. Sometimes the mass redevelopment doesn't happen and the renewal moves slower.
What actually causes the initial trend can vary.
It depends on how you would spend the $300MM.
//godot - Presenting Katz's arena as a prerequisite for gentrification is disingenuous.
ReplyDeleteUrban renewal does not begin with a $300MM subsidy to a for-profit corporation owned by a billionaire.//
There is more to the arena district than just a $350 million dollar subsidy.
It is to use $350 million dollars of public money to leverage a further $1 billion dollars of private capital, all invested in downtown Edmonton. The deal is about equitably sharing the risks and benefits of the proposed project, by identifying how to assign future revenue streams appropriately to minimize the risks to both parties, and to appropriately share the rewards if the project is successful.
There almost certainly is going to be a significant ticket tax. The CRL levy is not going to be enough. And there undoubtedly has to be a high probability of certainty about the billion in private capital.
It most certainly will be a decision that comes with significant risk, but also with a lot of potential upside.
And if one considers the arena district in the context of what is happening from Castledowns to downtown over the next generation, if the deal is crafted well, it is a project worth the risk.
Of course if the taxpayers of Edmonton want to keep building outrageous expensive and inefficient suburbia, some future "Win Butler" might come from Edmonton and runaway to Montreal and win a Grammy writing about Edmonton's dystopian suburbs.
Meanwhile mc79 is living the hip urban lifestyle in Toronto, seeing all the cool bands in cool clubs and eating in cool restaurants in cool urban neighborhoods, the creation of which was aided by soaking Alberta taxpayers for a generation.
Well I will say that neither Calgary or Edmonton are very nice looking cities. A lot of urban sprawl in those towns.
ReplyDeleteWould be nice to see Edmonton do something about it's awful downtown core.
Godot: LoL at Toronto being hip.
ReplyDeleteGodot: LoL at Toronto being hip.
ReplyDeleteWell, you're from Montreal, right? Many of the rest of us are from Edmonton.
(This should not be taken as an expression of anything but seething contempt for Toronto.)
Steve: Well it's certainly clean and enjoyable but I don't think it's the place where the cool cats hang out.
ReplyDeleteMore of them than hang out in Edmonton, is my only point.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'd characterize Toronto as neither enjoyable nor particularly clean.
Defining any large urban area as containing "cool" individuals discounts the huge variety in each and every area of a city. Arguing who's cooler is playground silly.
ReplyDeleteAnd, imo, leaving a large investment in the hands of elected representatives, rather than a plebiscite of all affected citizens, is foolish and likely to create future issues (but then I would institute a more radical direct democracy in Canada, given the chance - that's what ruminating on Athens will do to you).
Who would have known that in my lifetime, high-density, inner-city lifestyles would be viewed as hip and cool and not impoverished, dangerous, grimy and crowded. You're being disingenuous again.
ReplyDeleteWhen did having citizens with lifestyles deemed to be 'uncool' subsidize corporations to provide 'cooler' lifestyles for others become a function of government?
I think there's definitly a cultural difference between QC and Ontario and the youth's view of cool would ressemble more Montreal then Toronto.
ReplyDelete//And, imo, leaving a large investment in the hands of elected representatives, rather than a plebiscite of all affected citizens, is foolish and likely to create future issues (but then I would institute a more radical direct democracy in Canada, //
ReplyDeleteDid they have a plebiscite for that $250 million dollar handout to South Edmonton Common? Did South Edmonton Common throw in $75 milllion? Did they promise another $800 million in private investment? NO. Did they give up any of their revenue streams to help pay for the overpass? No.
Mr Speeds
ReplyDeleteI think it ill behooves us to question the number of young D on the Oiler's defense.
This is a rebuild. It will continue. Including on the blue line.
It has been going remarkably well and more young D men will make go even better.
Godspeed
Godot, I don't actually know any of the information you are assuming I know by the questions you're asking.
ReplyDeleteIf the city gave up a ton of cash, with the developer very little, then there is another argument against leaving the decision solely to council. But if the city invested well, then perhaps council could be trusted.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete"SS",
ReplyDeleteJust glanced at LT's thread at ON.
You make me laugh.
Great stuff.
Godot
ReplyDeleteIf we get exceedingly lucky, our cost for the project will be the oft cited $350 million. At worst it could be closer to $500 m than $350 m. You also keep saying the HUGE commercial development........ We need $800 million to $1 Billion just to recoup the City $160 million on the CRL. That is a shit pile of development. Not good ancillary development, great (and quick) development
And there will not be the "promised" 2 office towers. There is ZERO demand for that type of office space.Anyone who understands commercial real estate knows that.
So Terry Paranych's promise of not one but two 45 floor condo towers had better not be total BS
This is a very bad commercial deal for the City. It is also a spectacular deal for Katz.
All supporters of the project are, however, barred from complaining about the dearth of City services after the commercial development turns out to be much smaller and slower than projected.
The Other John: There's one easy way to make a place hip:
ReplyDeleteInvite Artists to paint it up or do something with it.
Well that's usually how it goes.
Toj,
ReplyDeleteQualico is also a huge player in this. Owns a pile of land north of the site.
WAS beat ANA in a wild one 7-6, Fowler goes -5. Oy!
Semin, Carlson +4, Alzner +3
LT
ReplyDeleteTeam 1260 is the rights holder for Oil King hockey broadcasts, and I assume that the Oilers would be PISSED if anyone they are associated with brought a balanced take on the financing for the arena. Was it communicated that you were not at liberty to run a balanced take on the issues associated with the arena?
I would buy advertising for that segment of the program. Invite any 2 of Andy Grabia, Tyler Dellow or Scott Henning on the side of common sense and absolutely anyone the Oilers want to bring to the program. Course fairness dictates that each sides speakers have to be selected and announced one week before the show.
Great radio!!!!
The nay's would be overwhelming favorites. TKO about the 7 minute mark
WG
ReplyDeleteQualico has real money but $800 million is REAL money and that level of development (800m) does not make the City money it limits the size of its un recouped $$$ put into the project
Sarcasm aside....... Terry Paranych ain't building 2 45 story condos. There will be a dozen reasons cited for his promised project not proceeding but all BS aside supply and demand are pretty compelling factors. Same factor kills "projected" office towers. So $800 million dollars of condos is a lot
The only threat I can see making sense is Hamilton. When it comes to that threat - and unless City Council is braindead or gutless, it will come to this - the local rage is going to be a spectacle to behold.
ReplyDeleteThe joy you take at making this statement is pathetic.
how about hall last night? he was pretty damn good.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy: I try. Oh god, how I try.
ReplyDeleteQualico has real money but $800 million is REAL money and that level of development (800m) does not make the City money it limits the size of its un recouped $$$ put into the project
ReplyDeleteQualico, Terry Paranych and Greg Christenson are all players. Greg was answering questions at the open house at the AGA. Those guys build residential properties that contribute tax revenues - "make the city money". I've also heard there's more development in the shadows, waiting for this thing to go through. And it sounds like Katz has had initial interest from several commercial chains (I'd guess Moxies, Earl's Group, BP to name a few), on top of other rumored bigger commercial real-estate players and his own $100M. Oh, and the Macewan expansion too. That's a pretty fair cross section of development, each of which will bring in their fair share of ongoing revenue for the city.
No doubt things will accelerate when the deal gets signed. Beats the crap out of the glorified drug park that's there right now.
Godot said..
ReplyDeleteIt is to use $350 million dollars of public money to leverage a further $1 billion dollars of private capital, all invested in downtown Edmonton. The deal is about equitably sharing the risks and benefits of the proposed project, by identifying how to assign future revenue streams appropriately to minimize the risks to both parties, and to appropriately share the rewards if the project is successful.
I'm sorry. Did I miss the part where capitalism became about sharing the risks with hostage taxpayers?
David S said...
Those guys build residential properties that contribute tax revenues -"make the city money".
Thank god that phrase was in quotation marks, otherwise I'd think you were serious in thinking tax revenues were the same as making money.
MC79
ReplyDeleteI agree that there aren't many markets that Katz could move to. Edmonton is a top 15 hockey market and a top 10 concert market and there just aren't that many places left in North America that could offer that. Southern Ontario would be one.
Everyone seems to overlook the other moving option though - outside Edmonton city limits. It's a less attractive option to Katz because he wouldn't be able to make the same real estate play that he would downtown, but if he gets a sweet enough deal from say Spruce Grove, or the really intriguing option, the River Cree reservation, he could still end up with a really profitable operation.
In that scenario Edmonton either loses hundreds of jobs and millions in annual tax revenue, or it spends hundreds of millions of tax payers money updating Northlands to compete with Katz for the concert revenue, but without a sports anchor tenant, and loses a potential downtown development driver.
We know Katz has spoken to AEG, and AEG turned the Dome in London in to the most profitable concert venue in the world in spite of the fact that it isn't centrally located and has mediocre transport links. The suburbs are definitetly an option.
Edmonton's bargaining position here isn't as strong as some might think.
Sorry David you keep moving the goalposts. Again and again. Originally you bought in whole hog to the 2 hotels, 2 new office tower story. As your colleague Paula Simons pointed out, one new office tower(Epcor) is going to cause a glut of supply not matched by commercial real estate demand downtown. So the original 2 25 story office towers becomes a complete non starter.....unless the necessary tenants are in the shadows too.You have been told the downtown hotels have an occupancy rate of 60%, not sure who is building new facilities with that many vacant rooms downtown already.
ReplyDeleteRestaurant chains ( 3 or 4 like at Glendale), are not going to generate the money needed for the CRL. So we are left with the residential build that Qualico and Greg Christenson can develop. Christenson Developments has done an exceptional job west of 109 street. They should be greatly commended for that work but you get that $800 million is a very big # right?? Like really big!! Presumably at the same time the City is also developing attractiveness of the airport lands as a residential development.
So it will be better that some of these guys in athe shadows that you hint at, we can't tell you or we'd have to kill you, should really step out of the shadows. It makes it easier for the City to have a level of certainty that they can pay for their contribution to this project ( like 80%)
Marc
ReplyDeleteYou understand that Darryl Katz wants someone else to pay for 75 to 80% of the facility. Like $300 to 400 million dollars. Do you think Spruce Grove has $400 million dollars burning a hole in their jeans? Because I'm not sure they need downtown revitalization at that kind of cost like some people sell it for Edmonton.
Now River Cree might be a real possibility. Problem is I am not sure as an investment for the Indian band makes much sense because they would have to make an additional $20 million dollars just to make 5% on their $400 million investment. Ignoring their cost of capital
I think it is more complicated than Katz seeking a big bag of money. A downtown arena has obivous benfits for him, including transport infrastructure and the chance to make a real estate play. It also downsides, such as higher land costs, higher construction costs, limited parking and Edmonton taxes. The money Katz is seeking from the city is at least in part to offset the downsides he'll incur by building downtown.
ReplyDeleteIt follows that Spruce Grove wouldn't necessarily have to come up with the same amount of money as Katz is seeking from the city, as there are different downsides to building out there. A package of tax breaks, subsidised or free land and a promise to build necessary infrastucture could be enough to be more attractive to Katz than building downtown without any help from the city. The prospect of jobs, ancillary benefits to existing buisnesses and the prestige of having the arena may be enough for voters of Spruce Grove or Stoney Plain or some other city to decide to help Katz if Edmonton voters won't.
As for River Cree, they would be looking at 15-20,000 extra people coming to the reservation every night that the arena is booked, so potentially 100+ nights a year. Even if only some of them end up dropping $100 at the casino or grabbing a meal they make think it's worth their while. And again there are also the jobs and the prestige that an arena would bring.
As your colleague Paula Simons pointed out, one new office tower(Epcor) is going to cause a glut of supply not matched by commercial real estate demand downtown. So the original 2 25 story office towers becomes a complete non starter.....unless the necessary tenants are in the shadows too
ReplyDeleteThere are a bunch of major tenants that are trying to decide between downtown, the southside, or Calgary. I know this for a fact.
The fact they could be part of a major redevelopment is a huge factor for them. They will get much more exposure and frankly it will be exciting for the company and the employees. If the development does not go ahead then they will go elsewhere.
This corporate welfare BS so popoular in these parts is hard to take. If they use a ticket tax or some option like that, why would you care?
The joy you take at making this statement is pathetic.
ReplyDeleteI think that the Oilers are engaged in what is basically a very unsubtle attempt at extortion and that a lot of people are trying to desperately pretend that they aren't. I think it will be funny when people have to admit that, yes, the Oilers are trying to extort the city.
Not sure why that's pathetic.
This corporate welfare BS so popoular in these parts is hard to take. If they use a ticket tax or some option like that, why would you care?
ReplyDeleteI think a lot of people who are opposed to public funding for the arena would be fine with a ticket tax option. In that case, the cost of the arena is being borne by those who use it. I'm pretty sure even the CTF has said that they'd be ok with that, assuming that the revenue projections are realistic.
The problem is that it won't be enough, so you're left with the CRL, which is pretty clearly a sham, or a direct transfer of funds, which is just as bad.
Ducey
ReplyDeleteThere are very few tenants on the periphery of the city that could take the sticker shock of moving downtown. It would more than 2 times their existing rent. Plus parking is $200-250/ month per slot
And you do not need 1 or 2 or 3 companies moving downtown to fill 50 floors of 2 office towers. You would need 10 to 12 medium sized tenants..... leaving aside the already 200,000 sq feet available in the new Epcor tower and the 150,000 sq feet vacated by the Federal dept of Justice in TD Tower
I am though prepared to wager a decent bottle of wine ($40.00 or less winner choice)that no 20+ story office building will be started by 2015. Feel free to accept
FYI - I don't want anybody insinuating I'm David Staples. If he chooses to post on this or any blog, he'll always use his full name.
ReplyDeleteBTW - Ducey is right about the major tenants thing. I've heard the same thing - and I'm not even Staples! ;)
Just so we're clear, everybody knows RX1 is due for a renovation - to the tune of about $250M, right? When you take into account Katz' $100M, the CRL (whether you believe it or not) and a ticket tax, the difference is a saw-off. So either you get a revamped RX1 or a whole new entertainment district downtown including a brand new rink for about the same money.
ReplyDeleteYou choose.
I heard a rumor that X Co was going to move to Edmonton. They need 15+ floors of space and are just waiting for 2 new office towers to be built before committing to space.
ReplyDeleteGee I wonder who would start a rumor like that? The company that wants you to build them a shiny new arena? And needs to sell you on ancillary development in the surrounding area
I heard a rumor that Sid Crosby so respects the Oiler tradition that he is gonna demand a trade to the Oilers.
Both rumors are not true but are easy to say.
Lease decisions are not tied to when YEG builds a new arena. They are tied to when your existing lease commitments are set to expire. That is you start looking a year, year and a half before lease expires for space? So how are all these companies just waiting to move downtown when they have ZERO clue as to when building will be built?
Fascinating to see AIMCO announce that they want to build a small tower up on the existing Manulife II building.
More supply, no more demand. Plus they will not have to borrow the money to make the deal