--
The Minnesota Wild had a terrible start and there was talk of firing the coach and blowing it up. However, the roster boasts some very nice NHL players (Havlat, Koivu, Cullen, Burnette, Burns and on it goes) and things finally turned around for them. I don't know that the Wild will make the post-season (anyone remember how easy it was to make the playoffs 25 years ago? mid-season NHL games are about 110% better than they were) but there's a nice story there.
--
Lots of rage about the Oilers powerplay, and I think it's deserved at this point in time. I don't blame the players per se, for me it's about movement. When I see Detroit's powerplay, at least two possible outlets are moving targets at any time. The Oilers run their powerplay station to station and defending it is pretty easy. The 6-on-3 the other night has more to do with these men thinking too much as opposed to any lack of skill, but that's my opinion.
--
Logan Couture is back and healthy, so the Calder race isn't as close as one would like; having said that, Taylor Hall's new linemates should give him a very nice push:
- Jeff Skinner 45gp, 16-20-36
- Logan Couture 46gp, 20-10-30
- Taylor Hall 44gp, 14-13-27
- Derek Stepan 47gp, 13-14-27
- Bryan Bickell 44gp, 12-14-26
--
Lots of great comments all over the blogosphere about Bob McKenzie's latest rankings. I'm onboard with Couturier, but would be fine with Landeskog or Larsson. The one thing BM's list really drives home is that the Oilers should pick up another pick in the top 50. The list is so fluid--and the overall strength is so strong--that the Oilers could absolutely kill this draft as they did a year ago.
Bob McKenzie's list is something we should pay close attention to this winter. Why? Look at last season's draft:
- #1: Taylor Hall: #1 Bob McKenzie
- #31: Tyler Pitlick: #25 Bob McKenzie
- #46: Martin Marincin #71 Bob McKenzie
- #48: Curtis Hamilton #57 Bob McKenzie
- #61: Ryan Martindale #58 Bob McKenzie
LT thought you might like this...as per Gare Joyce at ESPN
ReplyDelete"Gabriel Landeskog came into the season with the challenge of showing NHL scouts that he had the scoring touch to justify a place in the top 10 of the NHL draft. Now he finds himself atop the NHL Central Scouting Service's (CSS) mid-term rankings. Not too shabby.
The Swedish native with the Kitchener Rangers has had a great season until it was put on hold with a high ankle sprain in December that knocked him out of the U-20s. But does the left winger fully merit NHL CSS's No. 1 ranking in the mid-terms handed down earlier this week? No.
Will he go first overall in the NHL entry draft? Never say never, but it's highly unlikely.
If you're going to read anything into the No. 1 ranking it is this: Of the top players in the running for the No. 1 ranking, Landeskog has had the best season going back to last summer. At the very least he's lived up to expectations.
Among North American skaters, C Sean Couturier has led the Q in scoring but hasn't taken flight in Drummondville the way you might expect of a defending league scoring champion. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has struggled to score for stretches in Red Deer. Couturier showed flashes of high-end stuff with Canada at the U-20s, but RN-H struggled with the size and strength of those who tried out for the Canadian juniors, before being among the final cuts. Internationally, Swedish D Adam Larsson hasn't put up points the way he did last season and, like Couturier, his U-20 performance only showed flashes of stuff that might make him a No. 1 overall pick.
Still, if you go on projections, Landeskog suffers by comparison, due to his low ceiling. Couturier has first-line franchise center upside; RN-H likewise, though more as shifty playmaker. Larsson has All-Star upside, as he is ahead of Drew Doughty and Victor Hedman at the same stage. Landeskog has first-line upside. Will he score enough to merit first All-star status? No. That's not a criticism, just a reality. He would in fact have to put up bigger numbers than he has in junior and do it at a higher level -- something that rarely happens.
Yes, Landeskog's stock has surged this year, but he is like Tyler Seguin -- a kid who came from off the pace, a candidate for the top 10 who enjoyed a breakthrough and established a new level of play. Couturier, RN-H and Larsson are pieces that you build around, while Landeskog would play in support of a center. The latter doesn't sound like a No. 1 overall pick.
What gives with the No. 1 ranking? Well, it seems to be part of a trend. NHL CSS has made a habit recently of provocative picks: Kyle Turris over Patrick Kane, Seguin over Taylor Hall. These didn't reflect industry opinion -- for instance, of more than a dozen scouts and execs I surveyed regarding Hall and Seguin, not one hinted that Seguin would be the pick at No. 1.
But these and other out-of-the-box rankings started chatter in places such as this blog. It's not a bad stunt, but I'm not sure it's really fair to the prospects. Angelo Esposito's career has been shortcircuited by injury, but fans will think of him as a No. 1 in the midterms who flopped. If you can fall from No. 1 to No. 8 from midterms to finals and then to No. 20 in the draft, you really never resembled a No 1 to start with. (Kane was the No. 1 pick that season and everybody knew it.)
Landeskog is a better player than Esposito was at the same stage and there's no chance that he'll fall to No. 8 in the finals or No. 20 in the draft. Still, No. 1? As much as I like him and even though I've written that he was closing on Couturier, RN-H and Larsson, I don't think he'll end up as the No. 1 overall selection"
Larsson Larsson Larsson. Let Lander come in and see how Horcoff, Gagner and Lander develop as the guys down the middle.
ReplyDeleteI think we should go off the board, for a Finn.
ReplyDeleteIf we manage to pick up a second first round pick, we really should consider taking a long look at this Oleksiak kid if he continues to progress. Giants on D can be very special as we've seen, and a team that eventually has Marincin, Oleksiak, Petry, Whitney, Gilbert and Peckham would be a serious pain in the rear to play against down low. Throw Smid in there too even.
ReplyDeleteWith the higher pick, I really hope they leave the choice to the scouts, and none of this "draft by need" talk actually influences the decision.
My opinion of Couturier goes up and down like a yo-yo. Seriously, one minute I don't think he'll be all that good, the next I think he could be that no.1 Centre we all want.
ReplyDeleteThe reason I'm currently liking SC is all the talk of him being defensively outstanding. Even if it takes a couple of years for him to make it as a top scorer, if he can help out with the Oilers defensive woes then I'm all for him.
Problem is, the same could be said of Larsson, although maybe the opposite would happen - he scores but takes a while to adjust to defensive side of the game in NA.
I would only take Landeskog if we knew Hall could be that 1C and Marincin/Petry will be the next Lidstroms on the blue. I'm indifferent on RNH, won't be at all unhappy if we take him but would prefer others. Failing that, Murphy and Hamilton look pretty sweet choices as well.
I really am siding with taking a D-man this year though. I think with the power we have on our wings - Penner, Hemsky (if they stay), Eberle, Hall, Paajarvi, Omark - we can get by without a superstar 1C, but we need a 1D since we currently have none in the system and only just one, Whitney, on the roster (Marincin is looking phenominal, but you never know how he'll turn out). And I'm still hoping for the Hall experiment to work out :)
Don't forget
ReplyDeleteI'm Senator Al Franken, and you're not.
@ "Steve Smith":
ReplyDeleteBut surely not an outright off-the-board pick. The Oilers could probably move down a couple spots and add a seventh-rounder or something.
But surely not an outright off-the-board pick. The Oilers could probably move down a couple spots and add a seventh-rounder or something.
ReplyDeleteI'd rather not move down; I hear that one of the other teams is after our Finn.
"When we hit the Twin Cities, I didn't know that much about it. I knew Mary Tyler Moore and I knew Profane Existence."
ReplyDeleteDraft Larsson.
Nice post, CM. Great read. Redline loves Landeskog too, but there are some questions as to his ceiling.
ReplyDeleteWith SC I think we'd have to be patient on his development, almost Horcoff patient and he's nowhere near the skater Horc is.
Really, Larsson seems to have the most quality at his position.
Sure must be tempting to trade down a few spots for a late first, early 2nd and take a Strome or Hamilton. That would give us 5 picks in the first 3 rounds, not including whatever bullets TambaLoweney can buy at the deadline.
The Mackenzie list makes me happy that we have an MBS on our side. Scouting is the one and only area of the franchise that I trust implicitly. MBS will pick the best players for us regardless of where we pick.
ReplyDeleteIf anyone is curious, this is the latest info I could find regarding Sheldon Souray:
ReplyDelete"Sheldon Souray, who suffered a knee injury Dec. 17 against Adirondack, remains within the parameters of the original assessment (three to four weeks)."
Copied from: www.pennlive.com/hersheybears/
"Sure must be tempting to trade down a few spots for a late first, early 2nd and take a Strome or Hamilton. That would give us 5 picks in the first 3 rounds, not including whatever bullets TambaLoweney can buy at the deadline."
ReplyDeleteand then draft Josh Bailey ;)
While trading down a bit makes sense, I wouldnt do it if we are in the top 5
top 5 does seem pretty solid.And almost each player seems to fill a need on our roster
'each player seems to fill a need on our roster'
ReplyDeleteLucky us.
@ Deano
ReplyDeleteTrue that.....really lucky us
SC center with size and defensive responsibility
RS center with size
DH, AL Big mobile D men, possible top pairing
GL rugged winger with enough offense to play w high skill players
cant help but feel sorry for the Blues
ReplyDeleteSharks claimed Wellwood.
A curious move, unless it was made specifically to hurt the blues.
Unless they are dealing with injusry issues or preppring for a trade, I expect you're right.
ReplyDeletePicking up both Eager and Wellwood makes me think that somethign larger (pardon the pun) is afoot.
I hope the Oil go for Larsson. That potentially gives them bluechippers from the draft at 4 key positions which could essentially form the core that chases Lord Stanley for years to come.
ReplyDeleteHall LW
Eberle RW
Larsson D
Roy G
With Pitlick, Lander and Hall all in the pipeline as potential centers, D is the true area of need on this team. Seems like the stars could be aligning for the Oil with our area of need matching the BPA come draft day.
Not hearing much about Plante these days. Wonder if he's regressing in OKC?
@ Lee
ReplyDeleteRoy is having a down season this time around. I wont be calling him a blue chipper as of right now.
I am not talking about the WJC, but the fact that he is being outplayed by his backup, by a significant margin
http://lhjmq.leaguestat.com/en/stats/statdisplay.php?type=goalies&season_id=82
The PP is wooden, stagnant, boring, etc.
ReplyDeleteWhen Souray was here, it was clear that the marching orders were 'pass to Souray - I don't care if you have a two on nothing, get set up in the zone and pass to Souray.'
Passing to Hershy is too far, so that is no longer an option (though, I do notice some of the Oiler players looking in the direction of Hershy every power play). I had hoped that getting rid of Souray would allow greater freedom for the PP and that something good might happen. Well, apparently it was like a one trick pony losing it's hula hoop - it ain't got no tricks left.
I sure hope its just part of the plan to finish last.
now the marching orders are pass to foster!
ReplyDelete...And when Fosters not there...
ReplyDeletePass to Petry!
Pass to Gilbert!
Pass to Smid!
Pass to....Strudwick?
Wow never saw him win a fight in the NHL
ReplyDeletehttp://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/news?slug=capress-hkn_debrusk_charges-5685335
DeBrusk spent six years with the Oilers? Funny how time flies when your team is agonizingly bad. Or something.
ReplyDeleteSo he assaulted the cab driver, punched someone who was trying to save the cab driver, and then vandalized the cab itself?
ReplyDeleteAllegedly.
ReplyDeleteI blame MacT.
ReplyDelete@sum
ReplyDeletethe pick up of wellwood/eager signals, to me, that the rumours about SJS trading one of their forwards for a D, might be true. I'd heard Setoguchi mentioned a few places.
Latest from Tencer...
ReplyDeleteOilers make Whitney's surgery official...say he's out "indefinitely". Translation = "season ending"
New PP units tonight: Penner-Gagner-Hemsky-Gilbert-Petry & Omark-Hall-Paajarvi-Chorney-Foster
Looks like Dubnyk gets the start tonight.
Oilers....
ReplyDelete#Oilers currently on the ice for morning skate vs. #MNWild. Brule & Horcoff both participating.
Vandermeer also skating this morning. Line combinations & defensive pairings have yet to be run.
Gene...
ReplyDeleteRyan Whitney had surgery last night on his injured ankle..he is in a splint and is out indefinitely..no word yet if that means season ending
Quain does an awesome job summarizing Oiler Scoring Chances so far this year
ReplyDeleteQuain rocks.
Looking at 28's EV number just reinforces the fact that he's this year's Brule.
Looks good due to goal total, but bleeding hard at EV.
Really small sample size, but Petry is performing waaaaay beyond expectation. Another RH puck moving Dman that can be counted on at EV? That's like finding gold under a rock.
Rishaug....
ReplyDeleteEberle on ice for brief workout this morning, has left before start of main practice. Horcoff skating as well
Had ankle surgery last year (no idea what type of surgery RW is having or if it's similar to mine) but I was on the shelf for about 12 weeks
ReplyDeleteJournal on Debrusk...
ReplyDeleteVancouver police said the 39-year-old resident of Edmonton was arrested following witness complaints at about 1:30 a.m. that Sunday of a man having assaulted four men and damaged two taxi cabs. Police said the accused was arrested without incident.
Alcohol is believed to be a factor, police said, adding that no one was seriously injured.
When did we let MacIntyre spend three seconds on the PK? Anyway, he's now at -1,200 chances per 60 minutes on the PK. We probably shouldn't put him out there anymore.
ReplyDeleteWG,
ReplyDeleteThat was a great piece of work by Quain (though beyond my limited mathematical means).
And I bet this year's Brule (Gilbert) is how next year's Jones plays. After getting a similar 2-year contract from the guy people say we should be giving just a little more time as GM.
Good to see Dubnyk is likely to start. Finally getting the right guy in there regularly.
And I bet this year's Brule (Gilbert) is how next year's Jones plays.
ReplyDeleteBased on the scoring chance numbers, that would be a marked improvement.
"Steve Smith" said...
ReplyDeleteWhen did we let MacIntyre spend three seconds on the PK? Anyway, he's now at -1,200 chances per 60 minutes on the PK. We probably shouldn't put him out there anymore.
I'm shocked he made it from the penalty box to the bench in 3 seconds.
I really hate when the Oilers play the Wild. Games are usually awful and the Oilers lose.
ReplyDeleteCouturier might not be sexy but at worst you're probably getting a good 2/3 line center if the offense doesn't come at the NHL level.
A guy like RNH has massive talent but if he can't cut it on the first line at the NHL level then you don't have much to go with.
Be interesting to see what the Oilers do on draft day.
I remember the night of the 7th vividly. I live in Vancouver and get the local sportsnet broadcast.
ReplyDeleteWhile not an overly aggressiver person I recall wanting to punch John Garrett in the head and thinking that Louie needs to be less politicaly correct and more of a homer. Particularly as Garrett whined and wimpered about big bad steve macintyre trying to get something going in the 3rd period. A tactic I applaud only w/r/t the Canucks and Flames.
Obviously Loiue had too much to drink and thought the poor cabbie was garrett and the passerby was that other numpty who does the play by play with him. I get it.
Just for a laugh:
ReplyDeleteI am in a safety course today, outside having a smoke I got the 7 million horcoff, soft gilbert giveaway machine and in tambellini we trust spiel....I almost tore the guys arms off. Started trying to reason with him and point out some underlying numbers and such, we are no longer on speaking terms. He ended the conversation by saying well I guess I don't know anything about hockey then? I just shrugged my shoulders. Thanks again LT.
Chartleys
Those numbers posted by Quain (which are awesome!) shed light on the curious case of why Bulin may continue to get starts in the face of the seemingly endless wisdom of posters here and elsewhere (myself included).
ReplyDelete61% of the shots that NK faces at ES are scoring chances (442 chances on 724 shots), while only 52% of DD's shots faced at ES are scoring chances (192 chances on 370 shots).
NK's ES scoring chance SV% is .853. DD's ES scoring chance SV% is .849.
What that means to me is that NK has in fact faced a higher percentage of good quality shots, and that his why his ES SV% is so poor, while his ES SC SV% is equivalent to DD's. I have no reason to explain this difference, except that, by my eye, NK's poor rebound control may contribute to secondary chances that DD does not face.
Thoughts?
Ranford: Yeah, I noticed that as well. First thing I thought was maybe DD's seeing less competition team-wise?
ReplyDelete61% of the shots that NK faces at ES are scoring chances (442 chances on 724 shots), while only 52% of DD's shots faced at ES are scoring chances (192 chances on 370 shots).
ReplyDeleteAre all scoring chances shots? I thought not, but I'm not up on how this is tracked.
re: Jones/Brule
ReplyDeleteObjects in the mirror are shinier than they appear.
Where are all the peanut gallery guys that were saying Brule should get $2.5MM/year when he was headed to arbitration?
Not always, Steve, but usually.
ReplyDeleteObjects in the mirror are shinier than they appear.
ReplyDeleteThat makes no sense.
Objects in the mirror appear shinier than they actually are.
...is what I meant.
Quain's summary is a summary of Dennis' SC data that he logs at mc79hockey.com
ReplyDeleteSo thanks Dennis for gathering the data!
Good food for thought Ranford, the rebound theory should account for some of the discrepancy.
What about the old chestnut of a team playing looser in front of a goalie they "trust"?
Did Nik spend more TOI w/ 43? That should account for more SC too. heh
Dennis,
ReplyDeleteWere all the games logged?
I think I remember a COL game I couldn't find.
Deano: I don't recall anyone ever advocating for Brule at 2.5 million. I do recall many individuals saying he could get that at arbitration, however.
ReplyDeleteBruce will be pleased that Zorg is in and Smac is out for tonight.
ReplyDeleteFoster in for Struds.
The fact that Khabi has a higher "Dennis-chances" to shot ratio doesn't prove very much.
ReplyDelete1. We shoud expect some variation in these numbers over small sample sizes. Dubnyk has only played 15 games.
2. Despite Dubnyk looking decent, I think we can all agree that his current SV% is inflated and will decrease over a longer time, regardless of the Dennis-chances to shot ratios.
3. Some shots that Dennis doesn't register as chances are chances. (Remember, both counted shots and Dennis-counted Dennis-chances are proxys for actual scoring chances.) If we had more people counting chances and then averaged those numbers, the wisdom of the crowd, so to speak, might make the resultant chance-shot ratio more uniform over smaller samples. (I'm not critiquing Dennis here. Each individual will miscount some chances, especially over small samples.)
Dubnyk has played against lesser competition. His sample size is also considerably smaller. It is unusual for even a good goaler to have such a high SV% on a bad team, but I don't expect it to last. As the sample size increases, NK and the Saviour's SV% will approximate.
ReplyDeletejonk - pardon me, apparently I 'misremember'.
ReplyDeleteAshley: Better competition would shoot more, not more precisely, so that wouldn't affect save %.
ReplyDeleteAs long as Bulin's save % finishes higher than Kippers this year, I'm happy.
ReplyDeleteWhy?
I can bug my buddies who are Flames fans - although they have little fight left in them (when all time homer Roger Millions is talking in envy about the Oilers model, you know they got nothing to say).
As well, it likely means the Flames are stuck with Kipper's jumbo salary, which limits their options.
Ashley: Better competition would shoot more, not more precisely, so that wouldn't affect save %.
ReplyDeleteHuh? Better comp is likely to mean more odd man situations, breakaways, a better PP, more net crashing - generally a better quality of shot.
If Dubnyk shows himself soon to not be the answer in goal going forward, who should be Oil be targetting in a trade next year to be the answer for when the team starts to get good the year after?
ReplyDeleteW: Games missing are one of the wins at Chi, Boxing Day at Van and an Xmas week game vs the Avs.
ReplyDeleteDucey: If I recall correctly a guy posted a correlation where SH% had 0,2 with sucess.
ReplyDeleteSo I'd say no.
Ducey: Just take a look at the PP leaders and it'l be easy to conclude that good teams can have quite disfunctional PP.
ReplyDeleteThanks Dennis.
ReplyDeleteHere is some basic info from those games:
Khabby played in both CHI wins.
Oct 29 41 shots 4 goals (.902)
Nov 7 27 shots 1 goal (.963)
He also played in the Van loss on Dec 26. (33 shots 3 goals)(.909)
DD played in the Avs loss Dec 30. (27 shots 4 goals) (.852)
Ducey: If I recall correctly a guy posted a correlation where SH% had 0,2 with sucess.
ReplyDelete"A guy" might be wrong.
The teams with the highest shot % (from Yahoo sports):
10.7% COL 19th in shots taken
10.4% DET 6th in shots
10.4% PHI 10th in shots
10.4% DAL 27th in shots
10.3% VAN 14th in shots
9.9% LA 23rd in shots
The team with the lowest shot % (6.6) is NJD
FPB, I'd say there is a clear correlation between the best teams having the best shot %, not the most shots.
I'll let it rest there, as you will argue forever.
Oh, and I meant to add, if Bulin played against more of the teams with the best shooting %, you would expect a corresponding reduction in his save % (they being related to each other)
ReplyDeleteBottom 10 for shots on goal:
ReplyDelete(Worst to best)
N1 MIN, N2 EDM, N3, DAL, N4 ANA, N5 NYI, N6 OTT, N7 NYR, N8 NSH, N9 TOR, N10 LAK
Here's something fun that I discovered through the fpb/ducey fight.
ReplyDeleteThe Oiler's SH% is 9.7% (good for a tie for 7th highest in the league, didn't expect that)
The Oiler's Opp SH% is 9.9%.
Those are very close to each other.
Taken to the next logical step, all the Oilers have to do is outshoot the opponent and they will win more often than the lose.
So Corsi/Fenwick etc, do matter very much when evaluating players (in context of their comp/team) because the difference between winning/losing can be razor thin and simply balance on outshooting the opp.
Also,
Everyone who yells "SHHOOOOOOOOT" is correct and they Oilers would win more games if they took more shots.
There you go.
HA!
Lt: with all this draft talk i always think of this documentary. I am sure you saw it, but in case you have not here is a link. http://www.nfb.ca/film/Junior_en
ReplyDeleteWoodguy,
ReplyDeleteIf the Oilers shoot more, will their shooting percentage remain the same? Go up or down?
Spoiler: That depends if they just force it, or they shoot cause they have the puck.
ReplyDeleteAre those EV chances FPB? If not, do you have their quantity of PPs too?
ReplyDeleteDamn that post of yours disappeared again, FPB.
ReplyDeleteWhat's so wrong about that post so it keeps disapearing?
ReplyDeleteLast year's standings with SH% next to it.
WSH 11,6%
SJS 9,8%
CHI 9,3%
PHO 8,4%
VAN 10,5
NJ 8.7%
DET 8,1%
PIT 9,2%
LA 9,6%
NSH 8,6%
BUF 8,9%
COL 10,3%
OTT 9,0%
BOS 7.5%
STL 8,9%
CGY 8,5%
ANA 9,4%
PHI 8,9%
MTL 8,9%
DAL 9,1%
NYR 9,0%
MIN 9,4%
ATL 9,6%
CAR 9,4%
TB 8,9%
NYI 8,5%
CBS 9,1%
FLO 8,6%
TOR 7,8%
EDM 8,8%
If you excluded TOR and WSH, it's pretty clear that there's no real correlation between SH% and sucess, especially with that pack of bottom feeders at 9+%.
Spoiler: No I don't. Ducey didn't provide them in the original post so i didn't include them.
ReplyDeleteJust for addition these were the top 10 teams with most PP:
ReplyDeleteCAR, DAL, TBL, PIT, VAN, PHI, ATL, TOR, PHX.
Seems like it doesn't affect the thing too much.
FPB: Your posts keep disappearing because you're using words like "dickweed" in them.
ReplyDeleteThat is quite the magical word
ReplyDeleteOops there's that lost in translation thing again!
ReplyDelete:)
spOILer,
ReplyDeleteI doubt it would change much.
Tough to prove either way.
My post was pretty tongue in cheek too, hence the Edith Prickly HA! At the end.
All of these arguements about shooting more, killing penalties, working hard, and so on are too far removed. I mean, you might as well say that they should practice harder or that they should tape their sticks better.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers need to score more goals and they need to reduce the number of goals that other teams score against them. I can produce loads of stats that demonstrate how good this strategy is.
Perhaps more to the point is that the Oilers should win more and lose less - again, if anyone wants to challange me with regards to how important winning is to success, I can back this up with stats.
Testing, testing...one, dickweed, three...
ReplyDeleteDickweed, heh.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe Senator from the Grate State
ReplyDeleteof Minnesota would never use a word like D***weed
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpnEA1RD7dU
Here's an alright interview with everyone's favourite Oiler Steve Macintyre.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestarphoenix.com/sports/Tough+hockey+career/4123400/story.html
FPB: Your posts keep disappearing because you're using words like "dickweed" in them.
ReplyDeleteI figured they were disappearing because they're terrible and nobody likes reading them.
Per Ducey/Yahoo Sports, the top 5 shooting percentage teams:
ReplyDelete10.7% COL 19th in shots - 16th NHL
10.4% DET 6th in shots - 3rd
10.4% PHI 10th in shots - 2nd
10.4% DAL 27th in shots - 4th
10.3% VAN 14th in shots - 1st
It would appear that having a high shooting percentage does have some correlation to success. The next couple of teams on the list, LA and Edmonton would pull that stat line downward, but having the top 4 shooting percentages in the top 5 teams is woth noting.
Per flamingpavelbure, the top "shootingist" teams:
N1 SJS - 17th NHL
N2 BOS - 6th
N3 BUF - 25th
N4 DET - 3rd
N5 PHI - 2nd
The top 5 aren't as impressive as the shooting % listing, but the rest of the top 10 looks pretty good.
--------------------
Of course the original point was the effect on save % of shot quality vs shot volume, and the answer to that problem should be intuitively obvious to even the most casual observer.
Sv% = (SA-GA)/SA
vs
S% = G/S
ANSWER:
If shooters from team A have a 10% S% on the goaltender of Team B, then that goaltender would have a .900 Sv%.
If Team A increase their shot totals, but their S% remains the same, then Team B goaltender's SV% remains unchanged (Team A will eventually score more goals over time).
Therefore it is mathematically correct that S% has a direct effect on Sv%, while SF does not.
Feel free to call me, "Mr. Dickweed."
WG - I know you're speaking somewhat in jest, but in 13 of the 14 Oilers wins, they have been outshot.
ReplyDeleteDid I just ruin the joke by explaining it?
ReplyDeleteI had to go Cliff Claven and mess it up...
Hey all, pardon the aside but did anyone else catch the bit on Renney's skating/fitness tests for injured players? Apparently he baselined everyone in September on a few things and won't let anyone back who can't meet their original standard.
ReplyDeleteSo I don't want to jinx anything here but... does this mean we're not going to see the aggravated/repeated injuries of years past when Horcoff/Eberle come back?
*runs*
I once got punched in the balls for doing science, too. Long story.
ReplyDeleteI once got punched in the balls for doing science, too. Long story.
ReplyDeleteAs though any of us have anything better to do. I believe the highlight of the night is Edmonton vs Minnesota.
The moral of the story is that a.) if the animal rights people tell you to not do something, they're probably right, and b.) just because you take a lot of pictures documenting what's happening, doesn't make it science.
ReplyDeleteDidn't Debrusk kick the crap out of some store windows on Whyte Ave when he was a rookie with the Oilers?
ReplyDeleteI seem to recall Slats saying something to the media like 'a lot of young men have difficulty adjusting when success comes as quickly as it does in this business.'
Don't worry guys, the team has confidence in Khabibulin because it takes an NHL shot to beat him.
ReplyDeleteHahahahah Oh Please.
ReplyDeleteWell I couldn't help but actually laugh out loud on the second sequence.
ReplyDeleteGod Khabibulin is terrible.
ReplyDeleteHe is done
Good to see the boys sorting out the slow start issues.
ReplyDeletefpv: What are you laughing at?
ReplyDeleteTv watchers - i cant see Dubnyk on the bench, is he there?
ReplyDeleteThe Wild broadcasters said he was supposed to start and NK was a late addition.
ReplyDeleteQuestion: DO they eat the final two years of NK's contract or buy him out? Clearly he can't play anymore
Wow, the Bhulin Wall. I can't believe Renney didn't pull him after that second goal. The first goal was just hideous.
ReplyDeleteI'm deleting his posts.
ReplyDeleteIt's a leaf,
ReplyDeleteThe Bhulin's contract is like herpes... You can't get rid of it either way because of the over 35 issue when he was signed.
atdhe does not seem to be working.. anyone?
ReplyDeleteatdhe has wrong feed
ReplyDeletetry
http://atdhe.net/32770/watch-detroit-red-wings-vs-pittsburgh-penguins
We're having respect issues this evening, folks. I'm going to have to shut down the thread.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteFPB: You need to stop it. Post on the GAME or something involved in the game.
ReplyDeleteStop making it personal. Here's an idea. Write your post and then review it. Take out all of the things that might be construed as an attack or negative toward another poster.
And I'm not speaking to another poster, so please don't turn it around and say "well he started it."
I have two children.
Speaking of respect...thanks for the link Kris! Was having a lot of trouble.
ReplyDeleteThanks for putting in the time to keep the comments page reasonably civil LT.
ReplyDeleteDo we decline the penalty?
ReplyDeleteOkay, they all just left and no #40. injured/sick after warmups??
ReplyDeleteMan, the Habs are a walking wounded tonight. Cammalleri has a bad shoulder, Pacioretty was off to the hospital and there were some beat up blue too.
ReplyDeleteI wish the Oilers had more trade chips.
DD is too sick to leave the room.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to point out that my science/ball-kicking comment did make some sense before some of the other comments were removed. Just in case you were all worried about me.
ReplyDeleteLT: Paciorretty with a possible fractured bone. Season might be over. Cammaleri's not too serious, well he's been porridge anyway so that wouldn't change a thing. Halpern was out for the game too.
ReplyDeleteMaybe they can sell Fraser as an actual player.
40oz flu?
ReplyDeleteThere's a science to ball-kicking??
ReplyDeleteFPB: Too bad for Pacioretty. He needs to get established as an NHL player, there seems to be plenty of ability there.
ReplyDeleteLT: He's all you would want as a PF. He's 21 and he wins pretty much all his board battles.
ReplyDeleteWell finally Cammaleri's done for at least 4-6.
Dislocated shoulder.
I knew a girl who could pop herself back in without losing conscience. That was fun.
French women that lack conscience. Yow
ReplyDeleteGrant Fuhr used to put his shoulder back in himself all the time.
ReplyDeleteDanny: Well that's the opposite actually.
ReplyDeleteI didn't see this mentioned anywhere else but is 46 dressing tonight as an audition for somewhere else because 10's about to come off the shelf?
ReplyDeleteIr was Renney just sick of 33 taking penalties?
Chances 7-45 for the Oil in the first and not great rebound control by KHabby on the first one. On the second goal I found myself thinking of how many of those type of goals go against us and just how few go in for us.
Dennis: 7-45... what?
ReplyDeleteFpv: conscience and consciousness are different words ;)
ReplyDeleteDennis - that's a thought regarding Zorg. Would hate to see him go, but something's gotta give and JFJ is far too important to the future to send out.
ReplyDeleteAh yes, the joy of another Oiler PP.
Danny: Well to tell the whole story she could do it a hundred times a day it wouldn't change a thing. She had a special condition that let her do that. Wasn't exactly the worst thing you could have.
ReplyDeleteDeano - thank you sir.
ReplyDeleteAnother PP to add to the record. That was a scathing article by Jones today.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteLMHF,
ReplyDeleteScore effects. Teams that are behind tend to get more shots than the teams that are ahead. Well documented by BTN types.
I bet the Oilers got more SC in the first.
Horrid goaltending has them behind th 8 ball. Should be entertaining the rest of the way.
I missed most of the first period, and I have to say I am shocked we are behind by two goals.
ReplyDeleteFrench woman with no conscience that could do it a hundred times a day?
ReplyDeleteIncroyable!
4th line looks worlds better with Zorg.
ReplyDeleteI hope they don't pick 22 or 33 over him, would be a shame.
Now Hemsky has disappeared. He sick too?
ReplyDeleteAfter further review, we've decided to decline the penalty...
ReplyDeleteDecline!?!
ReplyDeleteSomeone was mentioning the other day that the Oilers must be close to a record for consecutive games without a PP goal. Jack Michaels just mentioned the Oilers are currently 0 goals in their last 43 PPs. The all time record is held by the Leafs who once went 51 powerplays without a goal.
ReplyDeleteThis 5 on 3 should get them to 45.
5 on 3 for almost 2 min and no 83?
ReplyDeleteHurt or benched?
Teams that can't score on a 2-minute five on three:
ReplyDelete1. edmonton
Thanks Gene.
ReplyDeleteFor all of the talk we have about paying real cash to guys that perform at ES, maybe paying someone that can perform during special teams is important as well.
ReplyDeleteWg - not on the bench
ReplyDeleteAlmost 2 full minutes of 5 on 3, and the best chance is an in-close misfire by Hall......
ReplyDeleteWe're beyond Mickey Mouse... this is Hanna-Barbera territory.
If Foster isn't one timing the puck on the powerplay what good is he? If there's an award to be won for "most stagnating player" on an already stationary powerplay, he would run away with it. If the current formation isn't getting him the puck with a good look and he's not willing to rattle the puck off a few shin pads you might as well have Mike York back there.
ReplyDeleteRefs REALLY want Oil to score a PP goal.
ReplyDeletemaybe paying someone that can perform during special teams is important as well.
ReplyDeleteWe are: Souray.
Nah, refs are on Minnesota's side. They want to prolong everyone's torture.
ReplyDeleteNot only are we watching a typically boring game by the Wild, we're having to watch our PP.
It just doesn't get any worse.
Memo to Foster: The objective is to hit the net with your shot. New concept in modern hockey from the d.
ReplyDeleteeven with the refs on our team we can't get one.
ReplyDeleteI cringe for Smid when I see him on the ice at the same time as Clutterbuck...oh noes, another PP.
ReplyDeleteI am calling for Hall at the point to make the Stamkos one-timer slap shot.
I am liking O'Mark on the PP simply because he doesn't stand there like he is stuck to the ice.
At least Omark seems to have a general idea of how to play during a PP. Refreshing.
ReplyDeleteYeah, this game really hurts to watch.
ReplyDeleteI do like Linus' PP, though.
:)
I want a Kazakistanian goaltender.
ReplyDeleteAnyone like 23 on the power play?
ReplyDeleteWG: We got something pretty close. NK. (Ukrainian)
ReplyDeleteWoodguy said...
ReplyDeleteRefs REALLY want Oil to score a PP goal.
We've been cheated out of Whitney's assists-with-a-goal record (and salt poured on the wound by his season-ending injury coming shortly after he scores the record-ruining goal). Now the refs are trying to spoil our chance at a powerplays-without-a-goal record.
Kris, that comment hurt worse than the elbow in 23's face.
ReplyDeleteWe are making the Wild PK look like the 1976/77 Montreal Canadiens. Is there a reason Minnesota dressed a house league goalie against us tonight?
ReplyDeleteNik's Russian, not a Ukrainian.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to the Dubnyk start? Tweak something? Flu?
ReplyDeleteWG: Nik was born in Ukraine. As many Ex-USSR players he aquired Russian Nationality.
ReplyDeleteConcussion for 83.
ReplyDeleteHockey gods REALLY want MBS to pick first again.
83
ReplyDeleteHas Hemmer missed games with a concussion before?
ReplyDeleteHemsky's out with a concussion... Makes things easier for Toonces I guess. Not good for the exciting last place hockey cause though.
ReplyDeleteHemsky has a concussion.
ReplyDelete"And then, depression set in".
Hemsky with a concussion?
ReplyDeleteProbably missed on a face-palm and kabonged himself on the boards.
Danny: Am think he did once before courtesy of Jordin Tootoo.
ReplyDeleteSverdlovsk is in mother Russia.
ReplyDeleteNow is called Yekaterinburg. Home of Khabibulin. Population 1.3MM, in central russia. Average temperature is -10 kelvin. Mayor was killed in accident with KGB.
That likely means no all star game.
ReplyDeleteYeah I remember that Tootoo hit. Didn't Sutton give him one too?
ReplyDeleteFpb,
ReplyDeleteAccording to NHL.com and his wiki page he was born in Sverdlovsk, Russia.
Neither Khabibulin isn't a Ukrainian name either. I'm 1/2 Uke, almost all our surnames end in UK or AC
Only on Lowetide's Blog
ReplyDeleteWe discuss political accidents in Yekaterinburg involving the KGB
So the 3rd period is where the E in ELPH comes in, yes?
ReplyDeleteInjuries are one of the reason's I favor resigning Penner over Hemsky.
ReplyDeleteIt's only going to get worse the older he gets. They seriously need to consider moving him.
No, accident was bullet to head. Total accident. Not political.
ReplyDeleteComrade other John, what is address, political affiliation, and current location?
I don't know if it's that I cheer for them, or if it's the team itself, but the Gods despise one of us.
ReplyDeleteI apologize to everyone in advance for when the jumbotron falls on Taylor Hall.
WG: Well damn. Fooled me. Damn you Hockey DB.
ReplyDelete''Sverdlovsk (Ukrainian: Свердловськ, translit. Sverdlovs’k; Russian: Свердловск) is a city in Luhansk Oblast (province) of south-eastern Ukraine. Serving as the administrative center of Sverdlovskyi Raion (district), the city itself is also designated as a separate raion within the oblast, and is located approximately 80 km from the oblast capital, Luhansk.''
Well at least that city exists lol.
Slipper: Yeah, I don't even know what to say about it anymore. Right now I'm just looking forward to the all-star break so I don't have to watch them.
ReplyDeleteThere's a major cloud hanging over this franchise; the say otherwise is to be oblivious.
Okay, but the important question is did Anastasia live, or was she killed in Yekaterinburg?
ReplyDeleteIf Penner wasn't so lazy he might have scored there.
ReplyDeleteatdhe seems to have gone south, is there another?
ReplyDeleteThere are two Sverdlovsks, one in Russia, one in the Ukraine. Both named after industrious Bolshevik party hero leader Yakov Sverdlov.
ReplyDeleteOh snap Gilbert just pulled a Stefan.
ReplyDeleteSome might say there WERE two Sverdlovsks.
ReplyDeleteReal nice play Gilbert
ReplyDeleteReally cheesy wave off of the icing there.
ReplyDeleteReally cheesy Rexall ice there.
It ain't easy being cheesey. (?!)
ReplyDeleteLost games to injury will regress to league average eventually. It's a small blessing that we are being ravaged now, and hopefully not when we are ready to compete.
ReplyDeleteIt landed us Hall, it will land us Larsson or Couturier, hopefully it turns things septic enough to expose and flush management.
Next year makes much more sense to invest in a vet face-off guy and penalty killer, upgrade the blueline, and hope for some luck in the injury department. Next season this franchise can be a playoff chaser if management can get their heads outta their hineys
Veetle stream:
ReplyDeletehttp://veetle.com/index.php/channel/view#4d32538468491
Goodness. I can't believe Khabi was Wiki'd and no one mentioned the "other" nicknames. I think that wiki entry was written by Gene Principe.
ReplyDeleteKris
ReplyDeleteEdm. Right wing fiscal conservative, social liberal-- Yeah, yeah weird mix. Jk_Thompson. At Jerry Wangs
Dago she is dead and has been for 90 plus years
(In case it isn't apparent, I tend to entertain myself by posting here during really boring games.)
ReplyDeleteThis may be the worst game of hockey ever played by this team.. Nearly every criticism one can have of the Oilers was on exhibit.
ReplyDeleteThey are just completely psyched out. Poor guys.
Even if they come back in the last minutes this is a shameful joke of an outing.
Er, thanks
ReplyDeleteShoulda gone to bed.
Nice job by the crowd at Rexall playing Thin Lizzy's "Jailbreak."
ReplyDeleteThat's all I've got.