I like Gagner, but I'd love to see the Oilers move a young player before everybody realizes they can't play hockey. If Gagner isn't a true top six forward, I want to see him gone ASAP before his value goes in the toilet. I still have hope for him, but he's progressing slowly.
Small edit in there, but that's the thrust of his idea. I've made my feelings on Gagner (and young prospects in general) well known, but RQ's point is a strong one. The Oilers have a lot of young forwards here (to turn a phrase and borrow from Kevin Lowe at the same time) and things have changed rapidly in Oilerville. Consider:
- Taylor Hall, Magnus Pääjärvi and Jordan Eberle have clearly established themselves as quality options for serious even-strength playing time.
- Omark is a player of interest in this area too.
- A very similar player to Gagner (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) is available at the 2011 entry draft.
- Sam Gagner is about 1.5 years away from a big payday.
- Horcoff 48.2
- Fraser 43.3
- Gagner 41.6
- Cogliano 41.5
By The Numbers (evens)
- 07-08 5x5 per 60m: 1.96
- 08-09 5x5 per 60m: 1.69
- 09-10 5x5 per 60m: 1.56
- 10-11 5x5 per 60m: 1.76
It may not be enough. NHL teams always have options, but the lottery Oilers have great ones, and Andrew Cogliano may be moving ahead of #89 in the coach's estimation.
It's time we at least consider the idea of cashing Gagner for help elsewhere. I vote no.
Move him to RW /end thread.
ReplyDeleteAgreed?
As much as i like Gagner, and feel his upside is Stephen Weiss (which is solid), i wonder what we could get? i guess that is really what it comes down to. Knowing we lack a true top end dman, if Gagner could be packaged to get someone like Shea Weber, then I assume most would do that deal.
ReplyDeleteNo.
ReplyDeleteIf this were a real NHL team with real NHL management, he'd still have at least a year left in his ELC.
If someone wants to pay a premium, sure. Otherwise, no chance.
In all seriousness, I don't look at Gagner too differently from any other player. If you can find more value from him in the market than you can on your team, move him.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if the Oilers should be too anxious to move him before they see what happens with Penner/Hemsky, because if you move him now or at the draft, and then end up trading both Penner and Hemsky prior losing them for nothing as UFA's (or just losing them as UFA's), well, that's a lot of top 6 forwards gone.
As for my move him to RW suggestion, I like that as a plan in particular if Hall can play C and you draft another C this year. If the Oilers end up moving one of Hemsky/Penner for whatever they would get (likely picks and prospects if the deal happens prior to the deadline), they could can move Hall to C and have the new guy at C, giving you a top 9 something like the following next fall*:
Penner Horcoff Eberle
Paajarvi Hall Gagner
UFA Couturier Omark
Even if you don't move Hemsky or Penner, you could still put Gagner on the wing on your third line if you're so inclined.
I would say no but of course speeds is right, really nobody is untouchable if the return brings you closer to winning the Stanley Cup
ReplyDeleteIts the same as the Hemsky/Penner discussion. With those two guys if you can get them signed then you keep them unless you can fill a hole (centre/D) with an equivalent player. Same as Gagner or any other player.
But if you're building then you don't move your 21 year old centre who is ~ a fifty point guy playing on a shit team already, give or take I mean when it comes to the points.
The other thing is, what would you move him for?
ReplyDeleteI'm presuming anyone interested in moving him would be looking for a D, maybe but not necessarily a youngish one that would fit with the core?
Where would be the fit? Who would be acceptable targets, and would their teams be willing to move them?
A guy like Kulikov? Not sure if FLA would move him, but is that the kind of guy people would be looking for?
Agree with Speeds, move him to RW and I think he'll be a valuable asset moving forwards.
ReplyDeleteSpeeds - agreed. He's a winger masquerading as a C.
ReplyDeleteI see RiversQ's point. Sam Gagner hasn't developed like Jeff Skinner and if you can get equal value (on say defense) or if you plan on drafting another top 6 smurf (RNH) then it doesn't hurt to look.
ReplyDeleteBut its a situation where chances are that long term we don't win the trade (yes getting Shea Weber is an exception but not likely). He may not become a #1 c but he will be useful and he hasnt got paid yet. The 2 year contract is actually looking like a smart bet.
I also vote "no", unless the return is something in the "Shea Weber signed to an extension" category.
ReplyDeleteThe kid is 21. Trading him off for something else and drafting RNH is, in all likelihood, a lateral move at best.
I too say no unless someone is overpaying while filling a need on the roster.
ReplyDeleteWhat if FLA wants to move Weiss for Gagner?
Then again he is still 21 and many top forwards dont even have major point production years till they hit 23. I am willing to give Gagner more time to develop, because that is all he needs. His FO% is a sign of worry, but that too could be worked on and better/more experience at wing would help too.
This idea seems to come up a lot lately, and the same faulty reasoning seems to be behind it.
ReplyDelete"He isn't improving offensively"
- He's been given more responsibility, and tougher assignments and his production has remained the same. That sounds like improvement to me.
- Even if he stays a 40-50 point center the rest of his career, that's still 2nd line center production, but how reasonable is it to suggest he'll never produce more than he is now as a 21 year old?
"He's too small"
- easily the most overblown issue surrounding this team, not just Gagner.
"If we draft ____ we'll have too many small skilled centermen"
- this one is my favorite. A player we may, or may not, draft who may, or may not, be better than Gagner some day, is already pushing him out of the lineup. Amazing. Not to mention, he'll only be taking up that roster spot until there's another player we could potentially draft that has similar qualities.
Just for fun, players/teams of interest.. most don't make sense it just a list of players, Im not defending any ;)
ReplyDeleteSTL - Petierangelo/Johnson
WAS - Alzner
NAS - Franson/Blum/Wilson
PHO - OEL
LOS - Forbert/Schenn/Bernier
PHI - JVR
VAN - Hodgson
OTT - Cowan
BOS - Colborne
ATL - Kane
Gagner looks like a major junior player out there, desperate to play adult hockey but seemingly lacking the size/skills/smarts to actually become one.
ReplyDeleteIt's pretty clear with hindsight the clowns in charge of this team are following the CBJ model(tossing underdeveloped kids to the wolves).
On the Red Wings, Sam would probably be entering his sophomore year, and looking incredible.
If we could trade Gagner for a larger, stronger, better face off version of himself then sure.
ReplyDeleteBut the trade Gagner rumours does fuel a few good questions though.
With so many quality prospects bubbling under who fits the long term structure of the Oilers?
We also know we want to fill holes but who do you trade to do this? Sure there are the Jacques and Brule's and other misc players who if we traded wont get us the players we need.
So to get decent players we need to trade decent players and if a guy like Gagner is untouchable who do you trade?
I do not agree with the notion of trading Penner or Hemsky unless we absolutely had to as they are actual NHL players and I dont think players like Lander and whomever we draft should be in the line up next year (unless 4th line), let them get experience and work their way up.
I think a line up like:
Penner Hall Hemsky
Parjvi Horcoff Eberle
Omark RH Center Reddox
Glencross O'mara Jones
So my question to everyone is which "decent" player do you trade for to improve the club? Unfortunately Gagner almost wins by default.
Ludcrous.
ReplyDeleteWe're talking about all these prospects, who rarely can step in and contribute (so far only Hall has shown he's a quality NHL forward) and are willing to throw away Gagner, who due to his lower production won't get an insane Gilbert or Horcoff-like contract.
I'm for a move to RW as well, but IMO Gagner's play is not the problem, it's the quality of his linemates. When we decide to stop this lottery tanking madness and acquire good players, his production will shoot up.
Its a crap shoot, and there is precedent with guys of Gangers ilk stalling for a while, and taking the next step when they reach their mid 20's (Marc Savard), but you can't operate entirely on hope, nor fear of letting the wrong guy go.
ReplyDeleteSpeeds is right in the sense that, if theres good value on the market for him then sure why not?
Speeds is right.
ReplyDeleteHow can any decision be made on Gagner until we know what is happening with Penner and Hemsky?
Unless it is a clear improvement in the return, just makes no sense.
I predicted on this blog back in TC that with Gagner facing increased comp, his production will flat line and people will be calling for his head before the end of the season.
I guess that prediction has come true, not that it was a difficult one to make.
Last season under the OTC Gagner was in the doghouse playing on the 4th line and he responded to the challenge and fought his way back into the top 6
ReplyDeleteHe also has made the players around him better this year.
If First rounders get all the love and more JFJ and GB to name two what should an 8th pick overall get?
Speeds:
ReplyDeleteI postulated on what a Penner/Hemsky return would garner back in the pre-season, and a return for Gagner should be similar to one of those two. I arrived with the following prospects, based on which teams in the off-season I thought would be likely to make a trade to go deep into the playoffs:
Jared Cowan (OTT)
John Carlson (WAS)
Nick Leddy (CHI)
John Moore (CLB)
Brandon Gormley (PHO)
Cody Hodgson (VAN)
The only team I can see not wanting to give up said prospect is now Ottawa. The full article is
http://bubbling-under.blogspot.com/2010/09/trading-star-getting-star-in-making-in.html
I'm a fan of Gagner, but I agree that if we get a needed commodity followed by moving Hall to C and drafting another young C, Gagner is expendable. Being able to draft Larsson however changes things completely.
Sam was tracking at close to 60 points earlier in the year before he took on Omark and PRV. Similar to how some people are evaluating him now ("He's not progressing"), teams that offer trades will base that offer on the same evaluation. Then they'll slot him in with decent quality NHL'ers who can finish and, well you can guess the rest. Guess who wins that trade?*
ReplyDelete*Hint - Not us.
What's the worry? If he isn't progressing, he won't get that fabled big contract.
On a decent team, Sam's in his second year and he's a beauty. And speaking of Skinner, who's he playing with?
Worth the pondering because while Gagner has progressed in a number of areas he seems stalled since injuries started hitting the roster.
ReplyDeleteGreatest concern continues to be face-offs, something that plagues the entire team. His greatest strengths are how he thinks the game, and his playmaking - skills that should not be undervalued. Plus he's still just 21.
If you traded him, does he give you something back that more than adequately fills an existing hole (top 4 d-man, 3C who can kill penalties) and then can you replace his skill set on the roster with someone else who's already here?
Not saying it can't be done, but something like that ought to be the line in the sand because truly, there should only be a few untouchables on this roster: Hall, Eberle, MP, Penner (imo), Petry and maybe a couple of others.
Personally I don't think you should trade Gagner, but you have to give to get and so it's worth exploring - but the get needs to fill some needs that can't otherwise be met.
I definitely think you hold onto Gagner until you know what Hemsky and Penner are doing but if they resign you have to consider trading him.
ReplyDeleteWhat good is stockpiling decent players, picks and prospects if you never want to trade any of them for what you need?
I wouldn't mind seeing the Oilers draft Landeskog and then this problem becomes easier to deal with.
Well I agree with River's assessment.
ReplyDeleteOnce the regular season comes to a close they'll know where they are picking.
If a guy like RNH looks to be the guy from where they're picking. I'd be looking to move Gagner with whatever to see if I could get another first round pick to take one of those bruising dmen.
I like some of what Gags brings but he has a pretty weak shot to be a goal scorer. He stinks on the dot. He gets beat up on the boards...
I think some of the commenters are overvaluing what we have in this guy. He should be better but that's on Edmonton and their stupid development curve that ended up costing Predergast his job.
Ive always thought that the Oilers are going to do with 89 what Phoenix did with Briere, and thats dump him for a big useless center like Gratton. Hope not, but I feel thats in the cards
ReplyDelete@ SB
ReplyDeleteAll his faults aside, Gagner can do one thing, carry the puck in the offensive zone and pass it to his wingers, putting them in a good position to score. With the amount of skilled wingers we have, we dont need much more from the center other than defensive responsibility which will come with age.
Who out there even needs a Gagner?
ReplyDeleteBJs and Laffs are the only two I can think of. Maybe the Canes.
Gagner is playing well. You only trade him for something really fantastic, presumably at D, or maybe a lottery pick. (The same goes for Hemsky and Penner, who are better players but are, obviously closer to UFA.)
ReplyDeleteSome more numbers on Gagner:
QualComp (0.004) middle of the pack
Qual Team (0.075) Excellent, but this is a bit misleading I think. He's played a lot with Omark, who's numbers are really high because he joined the team at a time when they started doing better at ES shots for and against.
RelCorsi: 7.9 And he hasn't seen time with Eberle and Hall who are the Corsi machines this year. In fact, Gagner and Omark are the third and fourth best Corsi drivers at F, after Hall and Eberle. That's a great, great sign.
By my eye, I'm guessing the offense is going to remain fairly sparse. But also by my eye, he's a cerebral player and he looks become a really, really excellent hockey player.
The only downside to Gagner is that management burned his ELC, and didn't use the bargaining power they had in his first RFA contract to sign him to a long term deal, extending into his UFA years, which would've had a lower cap hit over it's duration. That is, Gagner is less likely to be a good contract down the road. Still, he could be a fair value contract if management plays their cards right. (Hahahahaha)
While I think we may (often) be guilty of overvaluing our players, I'm not sure that this is the case with Sam. He is a good player right now, and will have had a great career by the time he hangs them up. The combination of his compete level, skill, age, and upside potential are valuable, and I think would be seen as such by other teams in the league. He has a high probability of covering his draft bet.
ReplyDeleteThat is why I think he would garner more value than Hemsky or Penner in the trade market. It may be prudent to dangle him if Hemsky or Penner aren't getting the player/pick the Oilers are hoping for. While it would be difficult to watch him excel on another team, hopefully the return (like Cowan or a blueliner of his ilk) would bring comfort.
I think a trade could be considered because the return fills a gap in the developing cluster, not because he might not develop into a solid player. He is a solid centremen at present, and will be a very good player for years to come.
This is risky business though. Generally, teams don't offer up bluechip prospects unless they think there are a few nicks in their game or development. This is probably why we wouldn't get Cowan for Gagner, although I would be interested to hear dorito's reason.
As for draft picks this year, it would be nice (but unlikely) to get one of OTT, NYI, NJD, TOR(held by Boston) first round picks since I think our post allstar break performance will leave us picking 5th with an outside chance of picking 6-10 (I'm still considering that bet with Woodguy). This team is playing too well to keep losing at the rate they have been. This enormous, and sustained improvement in play since the beginning of the season is the most exciting thing I have seen in the last 3 years. This will be our last lottery pick.
Tambo should be shopping everyone except Hall, Eberle, Petry, and MPS. He should not pull the trigger unless he can get something that fits better.
ReplyDeleteSam needs some size, grit and speed on his wings - guys that can open up the ice for him.
I think most agree that due to his size he won't be a #1 centre but he could be a nice #2 on a strong team.
Rivers point highlights the real question for me - how many smurphs can this team have and still be set up to do well in the playoffs. With Sam, Cogs, Omark, Eberle, Hemsky, and Reddox/Brule, and little "skilled grit" this team is not going to be able to play any kind of physical game.
I'd get rid of Hemsky and Omark, and keep Eberle(1st line W)Sam(2nd line C), Cogs(3rd line W).
And no RNH please.
If the rumours about Erik Johnson are true, the Blues are an ideal trading partner. They are desperate for offensive help and we are desperate for what E.J. brings. Obviously we'd have to add to the trade but I think there would be something workable there. E.J. has struggled since his knee injury but I'd bet on him bouncing back. Even if he doesn't he's a serviceable top 4 defender right now who is an ornery MFer.
ReplyDeleteAshley,
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty sure Dorito's reason is that OTT is going into rebuild mode; whereas at the begininning of the season, when he wrote the article, they weren't.
Is it just me, or should RelCorsi be corsi number in relation to a starting point (like zonestart) rather than teammates?
ReplyDeleteCorsi is like getting the time when a guy crosses the finish line in a foot race. RelCorsi gives you his finish time relative to the other guys in the race. Without knowing when anyone started running, how is it going to tell you who's faster, or if any of them can run worth a damn?
In terms of hockey, you'd have to think the guys constantly being put on the ice in offensive situations (offensive zone draws and being sent out when the team has posession of the puck heading up ice, etc.) is going to have a better corsi than the guys being used in defensive situations regardless of how good they are at getting control of the puck, creating offense, limiting chances against, etc. How is RelCorsi supposed to make the picture any more clear?
oh, and sorry to change the subject, it's just that RelCorsi gets brought up a lot, but IMO it still lacks the context needed to make it a useful stat (and the context is almost never taken into account by the people using it).
ReplyDeleteThere are two kinds of players, the first are the good players that come to this team and end up looking crappy because they play on a crappy team.
ReplyDeleteThe second are players that are genuinely crappy themselves.
The trick is being able to determine which category the player is in. The Oilers have traded away way to many of the first kind and kept way too many of the second.
If Edmonton feel like they can resign one of 83/27 to a long term deal, then I'd be happy with packaging Gagner/otherguy for an upgrade on Gagner.
ReplyDeletefor example, Hemmer/Gagner for Seguin and Penner extension.
Kotalik on waivers...per Bob.
ReplyDelete@ Jon K - I would be leery of adding anything else to a Johnson Gagner trade. Right now I would say Johnson and Gagner both have question marks and if that is the case it should be a straight swap.
ReplyDeleteReally is a defenceman who is currently slotted 3 - 4 worth more than a center slotted 2? I would say not.
I was reading Spector's Sportsnet article on Souray. It made me curious: Is there a window after the season when the Oilers can bring him back onto their roster without having to place him on waivers?
ReplyDeleteI think he would be a nice addition to next season's team as a top 4. Souray adds experience, toughness and some PP ability. I have a feeling they'll need all 3 of those qualities.
Lots of things to consider and Mike makes a great point up top about how anyone's on the table if they can make us better.
ReplyDeleteThe way I look at things is we're not gonna draft our way into the playoffs and there are certain holes here that have to be filled in some manner whether it's via FA or trades.
There's also the pivot issue and at some point someone's gonna have to be able to win a goddamn faceoff because things can't keep rolling like they are.
You can't run out 10-89-13-New guy next year at the pivot unless that guy is absolutely awesome.
This is why I want to see what 4 can do at pivot for the last 30 games. Renney's in love with 13 all of a sudden but he's still in the lower 40's faceoff wise so will he ever get better?
It's unlikely.
I'm not saying you trade 89 just for the fuck of it but at some point someone's likely gonna have to get dealt in order for us to get better.
A last note to further this is next year our best bet for a third pairing would probably be 49-58 and that means you need two guys to help out 5-77 up top. If this is as good as 5 is then I'd move him too. Not saying he's got a lot of value but at some point you just try something or someone else because you know what you Can't expect out of Smid.
Souray's fucked another year by injury so he'll probably stay healthy next year. That's a cynical way of looking at things but it probably works as well as expecting a reliever to bounce back after he has a poor season.
ReplyDeleteAnd yeah he gives us a top four D - still not the guy we need though - and we're already paying him and it gives us another year of snooze alarm to keep looking for the guy.
Maybe a Hamhuis or Michalek type is slated to go UFA come the summer of 2012 and that would be the last guy we need.
Really good discussion here today. I am learning things, and expanding my mind on the possibilities for the Oil.
ReplyDeleteMy own 2 cents. I don't think Gagner is on the untouchable list, but you don't trade him for less than 101 cents on the dollar. I forget who said it, but he will make his Oilers career look pale in comparison to where ever he goes to.
I suggested trading Gags last year for Price or Schenn when both were struggling and was vilified here - good luck bringing that type return now.
ReplyDeleteRealistically though what hockey club is going to give up significant value for a player that has regressed 4 years in a row?
Still can't win battles. Still can't win draws. -11 on the year and -41 in his career. No improvement offensively either.
Gagner is doing about as well as waiver wire pick ups Schremp and Grabner. Helluva player.
It was either me or LT who brought up the point that 89 was getting the old Weight treatment where he had the lesser linemates so Comrie could shine so I can understand why his numbers would dip a little.
ReplyDeleteFor me it's just that there are a lot of kids now who can score 50 points a year and I'd feel more comfortable saying he couldn't be dealt if he could win a faceoff or he was a great Pker.
Gagner's having a bad little stretch here it seems but he'll come along. I feel bad about saying he had "definitely" improved on his faceoffs skills because ever since he has been the suck.
ReplyDeleteI think he's being a bit overwhelmed by his new speedy wingers right now and is adjusting. He's got Omark barging into corners and wrangling pucks away from defensemen behind the net on one side and he's got Pervy blowing by him on the other. His role as center has him supporting Omark behind/around the net and trying to skate into open lanes on the rush with MPS. It's a nice combo but it makes for a lot of extra work from him.
Gagner is still exploring his potential and I doubt it would be wise to trade him just yet. His role in the dressing room is also important.
I look at it this way. Gagner has actually impressed me more this year than he has in his last two. He's coming up with some nice stick-work in tight to gain some daylight, and losing less battles and non-battles before becoming battles.
ReplyDeleteBUT, of all the rumours out there right now, who's immediate and prolonged absence would hurt the Oilers more, Hemsky or Gagner? Hemsky is a game-breaking player, who looked that way pretty early in his career. Gagner is a guy whose reputation is probably worth more in trade value than he's providing right now, whereas Hemsky is probably the opposite. Ditto Penner.
"On the Red Wings, Sam would probably be entering his sophomore year, and looking incredible."
ReplyDeleteOn the Red Wings Gagner would have trouble cracking the top 6 or bottom 6.
Would Gagner even help Detroit more than 4th line winger Darren Helm?
Kristian Huselius has averaged 0.68 ppg for his career
Sam Gagner has averaged 0.58 ppg
Gagner's career
Huselius has scored 20 goals 6x. Gags career high is 16.
I'm sure everyone here agrees that Huselius is a useless hockey player so what does that make Gagner?
"For me it's just that there are a lot of kids now who can score 50 points a year"
ReplyDeleteThat's just it. I don't think many fully understand the concept of opportunity.
Clarke MacArthur is on pace for 67 points this year for the Leafs.
He's still a 3rd line player.
I suggested trading Gags last year for Price or Schenn when both were struggling and was vilified here - good luck bringing that type return now.
ReplyDeleteThat Schenn idea is a helluva good one.
What did Burkie say when you ran it past him?
I don't buy the argument that Gags has been destroyed because they rushed him to the show. In what way has it hurt him exactly, and how would he have benefitted so much from playing a few years in the minors?
ReplyDeleteI guess it did wonders for Couture, excpet that he's currently about on par with Gags, despite that extra simmering time in the minors.
And I guess it hurt Kane too. Just think what a player he'd be now if they had kept him down a couple years like the Flyers did with JVR.
We have no evidence at all that one way is better than the other, as different guys sink and swim on each development track.
Do people really think Brule would be top-line NHLer today if he'd played a few years in the minors? Which of his problems would that have solved?
I think it's more likely that guys are who they are for the most part, and guys with the goods are going to be players eventually no matter how they're developed.
The only thing we know for sure is that fast-tracking Gags has cost us some money. And how much money is that even going to end up being? Is Couture really likely to be signed for cheap after next year?
Anaheim had to sign Getzlaf and Perry to real money after their first ELCs. The Sharks will probably have to do the something similar with Couture, and he'll end up a UFA after that contract just like Gags will.
I just think we make too big a deal out of development curves here. Guys are ready when they're ready.
"That Schenn idea is a helluva good one.
ReplyDeleteWhat did Burkie say when you ran it past him?"
Gagner doesn't have enough truculence.
"I don't buy the argument that Gags has been destroyed because they rushed him to the show."
ReplyDeleteWhat's odd is many who claim that a real team wouldn't have rushed Gagner at 18 also claim he's shown marked improvement via some type of corsi metric.
.
Gagner is a solid hockey player. Honestly I don't see how this is even disputable at this point. Instinct is to keep him as I don't trust our brains to come out ahead on a deal when someone like buffalo offers us 3 magic beans for 1 samwise...
ReplyDeleteOn a team with average management I do however believe it is a debateable point. We need actual centers. I honestly don't think converting Hall to center leaves you that much better or worse than Gags on the defensive/FO side of the equation, and I believe his shot actually might put us ahead.
There is absolutely no movement hear until the fates of Penner and Hemsky has been determined. I love Hemsky and all but if it's one of the two I keep Penner (period). That may not be an option because if I was in Penner's position I couldn't wait to get the hell away from this fanbase, management and Principe who have acted like a bunch of cunts to me for the majority of my time here.
But rant aside, I'm looking at a two phase plan at this point.
1. Begin competing (2 year operation): Phoenix coyote style round out your roster (1, 2 year deals). Leave yourself pretty open for next round of contracts. Phase in prospects as they push on the door. Sign Penner and deal one of Gagner or Hemsky for potential longer term solution (if it's Hemsky, put Gagner on the RW).
Depth Chart:
LW Penner, MPS
C Hall, Horcoff
RW Hemsky/Gagner, Omark
Tradeable pieces (Brule and Cogs unless Cogs is converted to a winger this offseason).
Deadline Dumps: JFJ
Needs: A BOTTOM SIX (Storts and Reddox potential otherwise clean slate here)
Defense
1. ???? 2. Whitney 3. Gilbert 4. Petry 5. Peckham 6. Smid 7. Hard as fuck Defensive D
I need a Definitive number 1 (what I'm looking for in a package with Gagner and or Hemsky, Smid & Cogs might be addable to this package as well) or a solid potential guy who is at least a 2/3and has some PP skills.
Deadline dumps: JVD, Foster, Strudwick
I take my lottery pick this year, put him in my pocket and develop as needed with no rush. I accept that eberle and Co. are not going to be my bargain contracts and start pushing for competitiveness. I have an eye towards converting some of next years draft and the years after into strategic RFA signings that have long term benefit (A solid C and or D). I have two years worth of depth in my system so I figure I could get away with this. I do my homework and pick up some overagers for OKC and see if I can luck on some gold.
In two years time, I should have no cap concerns for signing the kids, enough cheap youth in the pipeline ready to phase in if needed and be in the running for something.
Chartleys
Sam Gagner is 21 and putting up 50 point seasons in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteKristian Huselius couldn't put up 50 points in the SEL until he was 23 and in the NHL until he was 29.
Great comp Traktor.
Traktor:
ReplyDeleteNobody is listening to you. This thread was exclusively filled with balanced and weighted posts until you came along.
You're irrelevant; your status is somewhere lower than an internet troll. The things you said about LT on that invite only forum showed your true colors.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteKinger - not sure that stooping to personal attacks yourself makes things better...
ReplyDeleteIf he's trolling, then I would just not bother responding.
honestly don't think converting Hall to center leaves you that much better or worse than Gags on the defensive/FO side of the equation,
ReplyDeleteSorry Chartleys but Taylor Hall is more of a center then Gagner has ever been.
Realistically it's Gagner who should be on the wing.
And it comes back to what always happens in these comments. Players outside of JFJ, Strudwick, Smac, and Foster are all overrated by commenters who utilize a set of advanced stats to say a player is actually good.
Get rid of all four of the above players and it won't make a differece. The team needs top 9 forwards and top four dmen, which will bump guys other then those four.
So in a case like Gags. The stats say the puck goes in the right direction with Gagner on the ice? Fine I guess. Except the majority of the time the puck starts with the opposition. He can't PK, isn't much of a PPers, loses too many draws, has a poor shot, can't skate all that well, gets knocked off the puck more often then not.
A longterm deal for this guy will hurt the Oilers more then Horcoffs deal.
Bookie:
ReplyDeleteGo through the thread, post by post, a nice civil balanced discussion about the player in question.
Then this:
"
Realistically though what hockey club is going to give up significant value for a player that has regressed 4 years in a row?
Still can't win battles. Still can't win draws. -11 on the year and -41 in his career. No improvement offensively either.
Gagner is doing about as well as waiver wire pick ups Schremp and Grabner. Helluva player."
I'm sorry but that's three paragraphs of pure bullshit. Traktor deserves to be called out when his contributions do nothing but reduce the quality of the discussion.
Sam Gagner for Martin Hanzal?
ReplyDeleteAlso, the fact that anyone would stand up for that coward is unbelievable.
ReplyDeleteRead what Traktor has to say about LT following the announcement that Horc will be captain.
So when did everyone start deciding Gagner was a winger?
ReplyDeleteSure he played a little RW in his rookie year, and yes, the kid line had some great success in the 2nd half of that season, but I thought it was pretty clear to most reasonable thinking people that their success had more to do with bounces, luck, and unsustainable percentages than anything else.
I ask because that breif period where he was playing wing 3 seasons ago is the only reason I could possibly see anyone thinking he should play anywhere but at center.
Or is this purely a faceoff thing?
The comments in my link above are 18+.
ReplyDeleteKinger,
ReplyDeleteNo Traktor doesn't deserve that. None of us do. That just encourages him and continues a pointless argument, while satisfying what seems to be a craving to stir the pot.
What his posts deserve is silence. Send him to Coventry.
My bet depending where they pick in the draft will be for a defenseman. ie Adam Larsson.
ReplyDeleteThey have enough small players they can trade Gagner Cogliano.
They also have Penner, Hemsky and Ryan Whitney for trade bait.
If they can get Larsson, I would also be looking at Martin Hanzal.
Teams win the Stanley Cup with defence and dominant centers. We lack both.
Gagner and Cogliano AND Brule all seem to have been rushed.
ReplyDeleteIf prospects simply, develop, regardless of where they play as a poster has stated, then why bother with the AHL?
Brule might have learned in the AHL that man sized players don't fall down quite the same way as boys do in the WHL - and instead of banging his little head against the proverbial brick wall, Brule might have figured out a more effective strategy as a small yet dynamic player.
Ditto Cogliano, although he's anything but a hitter.
Gagner also would learn by playing against inferior opposition than he finds in the NHL, which as the great MacT once said isn't a development league.
The point seems obvious: The minors are for these young guys to cut their teeth, in a relatively easy environment.
Taylor Hall, on the other hand doesn't need the AHL. He's almost a genius, and is bound to play elite hockey no matter what.
Teams with dominant center and defeseman in the West.-Vancouver Detroit and Chicago.
ReplyDeleteEast. Pitts, Philly , and Boston.
Swarmy
ReplyDeleteThat's what I meant to say, just poorly.
I would prefer Hall at C. I am terrible at writing.
chartleys
You give me Andrew Ladd and Hanzal and a passible top 3 PP defenseman
ReplyDeleteI will give you the playoffs.
Chartleys.
I'm not sure how many quality lessons are really learned by excelling against inferior competition.
ReplyDeleteAside from it not being solely a developmental league, the AHL is needed because there aren't enough NHL jobs available for all the prospects that will enentually get there. Most kids aren't good enough to make a team, so down they go.
I know it gets advocated for a fair bit around here by some as a shrewd tactical move, but I don't know how often any teams actually evaluate their players after TC and decide to send down young guys who have shown they're already good enough to make the team in order to make them even better or get another ELC year.
Detroit and San Jose have kept guys down because they couldn't make the team yet. I know it's a different regime, but even the Ducks kept Fowler up immediately because he was clearly one of their top D in camp, and they're the team that kept Getzlaf and Perry sheltered for years.
Do people really think he'll be a worse player for it?
I'm not sure how many quality lessons are really learned by excelling against inferior competition.
ReplyDeleteIt's not inferior competition when you first come out of college or major junior. You get better by playing against better opponents, and the AHL shallows out the learning curve a bit, in theory. Because at the end of the day, you don't learn that much getting killed night-in, night-out either. Sam Gagner came from an excellent London Knights team as a teenager centring Patrick Kane, to a crappy Edmonton Oilers team. He's a talented kid, but there are certainly lessons he could have continued to learn in lower leagues before playing in the toughest hockey league on the planet. And while he was learning those lessons, he didn't need to burn off years of his ELC where he wasn't really contributing in a meaningful way anyway.
@commonfan13: It's probably not for quality that players are sent to the AHL instead of being allowed to develop in the bigs.
ReplyDeleteIt's so they can learn the gruntwork side of the game, the business, and about the world as a whole.
It provides a bridge for the average junior superstar to realise that the big bad world isn't quite as simple as childhood was. All the while allowing him to potentially grow and dominate, once he figures out the basic principles of professional sports.
Both Gagner and Cogliano appear to have not learned very much since their rookie years. And with the warm and fuzzy glow of rookie status fast disappearing in both cases, suddenly they're no longer looking like future stars. In fact, both(especially Cogliano) appear to be going nowhere fast.
Given the fact that the Oilers are easily one of the very worst teams in the NHL, it hardly fills one with hope for the future watching either of these players, increasingly desperate to establish themselves as bona fide NHLers.
PS: I was dissing Gagner on the shootout and got totally slagged for my opinion a few weeks ago. It's obvious by now there's something seriously wrong in the dude's head.
Move him. Free agency is only 3 years away. If you keep him, please, please, please move him to the wing.
ReplyDeleteI would want to package him up to get Gudbranson, Cowen, or Brayden Schenn. Thing is, I don't think he alone can get you any of those three (except maybe Cowen because Murray is an idiot). The Colbourne option is also interesting.
It is too soon to discuss whether Gagner should be traded** (**unless another GM calls and makes an offer that you cannot refuse).
ReplyDeleteThe decision window on Gagner opens about a year from now before next year's trade deadline until the summer of 2012 when you have to decide whether you want to sign him to a new contract.
As of right now, I would say NO. He is 21. He is one of the handful of positive Corsi drivers (and the only one at centre) on the Oilers. Player development isn't linear. Gagner has been given progressively tougher challenges each year and the boxcars have been flat. That does not mean lack of progress.
Gagner is NOT a right wing, and would be ineffective as a right wing, IMHO. And Eberle is the small right wing you keep if it comes down to that. NO room for two. It would be a counterproductive experiment to try him there. If you decide to give up on him at centre, you trade him and don't switch his position.
Gagner's strength is his intelligence, and his weakness is his lack of physical gifts. So time is an essential part of his development curve, because it takes time to figure out how to play against bigger players if one is a small player with average speed.
Gagner is 21.
As of today, per capgeek, the oilers sit at a projected 12 millions under the cap. Next year, they have 16 players signed and 17 millions of cap space. Then, the year after that, Gagner is due up. If everything goes well, he will be 350 games in his NHL career, a 50 points/year RH center. Everything I've seen about Gagner tells me he'll be, if he stops progressing right now, a soft comp outscorer. Paying the guy, say, 3.5 mil a year for his remaining RFA years is *not* a problem.
ReplyDeleteI mean, the habs are taking a 7,3 hit for Gomez and it's not what's keeping them from getting better. And I wouldn't bet Gagner will be a much worse player than Gomez in two years from now. Oh, you don't like the habs? Ok, let's look at the Flyers: they are shelling 6.5 mil on Briere for the next 4 years. And he's 33. And must be sheltered.
They have 56+ millions to spend, because they are a canadian team and generate enough revenue to spendt to the limit. Cap space is leverage. The Oilers aren't going to get killed or in trouble because they are overpaying by 750K a 2.75 mil. player. As long as he can make hay as a regular, even as a soft minutes regular, it's not that bad.
You need a) good hockey player and b) a coach who gets said players in a position where they will succeed. The Oilers are loaded with prospects.
Hell, they could trade their first overall this year to get Hanzal or something, the cupboard is already full enough.
@ Smarmy
ReplyDeleteI think if you change your statement to the team needs a veteran 3rd line and a solid defensive 4th line pivot with bigger NHL compentent wingers then sure.
I think there is enough pieces for our top 2 lines to work right now. A better assembled bottom six would do the trick here. Put us up to an average PK team would make a world of difference.
We're are not in need of a scorched earth and by doing so I'm not sure if we will be able to draft ahead of the inevitable attrition rate that will follow. (lose Penner and Hemsky and then develop another Penner and Hemsky?).
We have the cap room to overpay short term. If they learn from their past grevious errors and UFA shop short term we can start looking like a better place to play and contracts are likely easier to get signed.
chartleys
I knew I shoulda kept my mouth shut. Discussion went downhill rapidly ....
ReplyDeleteI get that the AHL route is the softer way and necessary for some, but I still don't buy that the lessons learned there are so invaluable and unavialable in the pros that guys who make the team legitimately should be sent down.
ReplyDeletehe didn't need to burn off years of his ELC where he wasn't really contributing in a meaningful way anyway
Isn't it still probable that Gagner and Couture will get signed for similar dollars after next year (with Couture maybe even getting more cash on almost the same production due to the sense that he has more upside), and that they'll end up as UFAs at the same time?
I'd also count the kid line catching fire and nearly carrying the team into the playoffs down the stretch in '07 as a meaningful contribution.
Since then, yes, not so much...
Kinger - LT has indicated that he and Traktor have discussed the comments he made and have had a virtual beer over it and settled their differences.
ReplyDeleteSecond, we all know that the blog comments can be negatively impacted by 'rant' comments by some commenters. However, the 'norm' that has evolved is to call people out on facts and challenge their argument OR to ignore them. This is because pissing matches and back and forth mudflinging are even worse than annoying comments.
I am not standing up for Traktor, in fact, I am saying that regardless of your good intent, you are not helping the situation.
I will leave it at that.
Having Sam on the team has not helped improve its fortunes. If you look at the impact some of the 2008 draft picks (excluding the top 2) have had on thier team's fortunes (Myers, Carlson) and others that are signifant contributors (Schenn, karlsson, Del Zotto) it makes you wonder how good Gagner is or could be.
ReplyDeleteLooking back at the 2007 draft, other than Kane it appears to be a pretty weak draft class so far.
I wouldn't dump him for anything, but if you could deal him and fill a need with a player under a good contract or still young enough to be at least 3 years from free agency, then the Oilers should look closely at the deal.
Olivier, Godot, CF13 those were 3 pretty good posts, thanks for your insights.
ReplyDeleteWhat Bookie said.
ReplyDeleteLogan Couture isn't being asked to carry two rookies and suspects on defense against Anze Kopitar's line as Gagner was forced to do in one of his "bad" games.
ReplyDeleteAnd that whole line rebounded pretty well from that experience.
"Sam Gagner is 21 and putting up 50 point seasons in the NHL."
ReplyDeleteGagner has never scored 50 points in his career.
"Kristian Huselius couldn't put up 50 points in the SEL until he was 23 and in the NHL until he was 29."
The Sedin's have never put up 50 points in the SEL in their entire career - both had the opportunity as 23 year olds during the lockout but failed to reach even 40 points.
In the same year Huselius had 13 more points in 10 fewer games than Henrik and 16 more points in 15 fewer games than Daniel.
Huselius also scored 23 goals in the NHL at 22 years old.. as well has 4 more 20+ goals seasons and a 30 goals season the year he scored 77 points.
The point is even when Huselius scored 34 goals and 77 points he was still a useless player and Gagner is unlikely to ever reach those numbers.
He's in his 4th year in the league and still toe-drags the puck before dump-ins.
I just don't get how someone could hate Rob Schremp and then love Sam Gagner.
Traktor: I don't think people hate Rob Schremp.
ReplyDeleteOne traktor attrakts more.
ReplyDeletePretty soon you have many traktors and the thread is dead.
Is it just me, or should RelCorsi be corsi number in relation to a starting point (like zonestart) rather than teammates?
ReplyDeleteAll stats should be by zone start and Qual Comp. Is the player above the average. in each zone against whom. A truer measure of ability. But the idea was rejected here 6 months ago. at which point alot of creadibilty was lost.
I know that Martin Hanzal is a Darling of the Oilogosphere and all, but did anybody happen to notice the play the other night where Linus Omark blew past him and scored, while Hanzal was too busy admiring the inside of his own ass to notice?
ReplyDeleteNot meaning to slag on Hanzal particularly, but it seems to me that most/very nearly all players have their warts, and the dudes who look great from a distance tend to look less so on closer inspection. In Hanzal's case he's still sitting on a career high of 35 points from the same rookie season (2007-08) that Gagner posted his own career high of 49 points. I daresay there's a Phoenix fan or two - maybe even ten, although we are talking about Phoenix - who would say that Hanzal's been spinning his own wheels.
Different types of players entirely, and I know there are many other considerations, it's just a general point.
What troubles me with Hanzal is how few points he gets for a guy who seems to have regular PP time (Altough I didn't check the numbers he seems to be on the PP regularly in the highlights)
ReplyDeleteI would hope to keep the guy. 21 is just too young to give up on. If he were struggling like Cogs to get points then maybe it might be a problem, but his numbers really aren't that bad. He might not be scoring like we want him too, but for this team he is doing pretty well so far, and he can only get better, right? Right?
ReplyDeleteI also think that Hall is better on the wing. He might be more effective than Gagner right now, but lets not throw Hall into the Center position just because we need a center. He seems to do his best on the wing, so far anyways.
I agree that Trading for Hanzal is like trading for a whole new set of question marks.
Nobody hates Schremp personally but I often read about "Rob Schremp hockey" and I think Gagner plays in the same league.
ReplyDeleteGagner isn't a 65 point Ryan Kesler or even a 50 point Ryan Kesler.
He's from the Kyle Wellwood family
Even if Wellwood puts up 65 points he's still Kyle Wellwood.
Crazy fact: Gags and Wellwood actually had the exact same goal, assist and point totals in their draft years although Gags did it in less games.
Lots of interesting comments here. As I said last night, I'm not really in favour of dealing Gagner, but the Oilers will have to start making serious decisions soon. The futures of Hemsky and Penner are most pressing, but they aren't the only considerations. Nobody should know more about his future than the Oilers. If he or Paajarvi or any of the young players projected to get expensive are not top sixers and other teams think they might be, then it's a question of what you can get.
ReplyDeleteGood post from Olivier too. Point well taken - you can't maximize every dollar, but again the Oilers have privileged info on the players they have developed. They can take advantage of that because they will have other inefficiencies.
I'm talking about selling some magic beans this time. That's part of how they got Pronger. (Just part of it though. That was a perfect storm.) A player like that with a supporting cast carries a lot of weight.
Schremp has a -10 Corsi and a -5 RelCorsi on a terrible team.
ReplyDeleteWhat little offense he's bringing is caused by an unsustainable 14% SH%. He may have a career as an NHL'er, but he's
Gagner has done well by eye and by advanced stats against weaker opp. (see my first post) though is inconsistent and unable to take on the toughest comp. Then again, he's 21.
Players that young are much, much more likely to take a leap forward than players 24, 25, or 30.
So he may become a first line player or maybe just a good second liner. He's a great asset as long as his contract isn't botched.
The end Traktor. The end.
Oops, I mean 0.9 RelCorsi, which is very middling on a bad team. (Weight's is -5)
ReplyDeleteAnd at the end of the Schremp paragraph I mean "he's got further to go to establish himself and he's at an age that he's less likely to improve."
ReplyDeleteRob Schremp Hockey ain't that terrible hockey. When you compare that to JFJ hockey it's way better.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I'm on the NO side of trading Gagner. He suffers from the draft year player syndrome, since everyone feels he's been there forever even if he's 21. I think he'l be a perfect fit at N2 center. I think he has N1 potential in him.
It'S crucial he gets a try on real team. Hopefully next year.
Penner-Couturier-Hemsky
Eberle-Gagner-Hall
Omark-Horcoff-Paajarvi
Seems like 3 lines of hockey players. Been a while we could have said that of the Oil.
Everyone > JFJ
ReplyDeleteKris: We can also add Jason Strudwick, Steve Macintyre hockey.
ReplyDeleteWhat I just hated with the Schremp situation is how he ''fucked up'' in one camp and could never get back at it.
If you watched Phoenix play last year in the playoffs , Hanzal was the best player on the ice for Phoenix. Maybe it was an aberration and maybe not.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I meant to say in my comment that I like Hanzal quite a lot, it's just that from a distance these guys can look like perfect gems whose flaws are either not readily apparent or else easily overlooked because all we notice is shiny.
ReplyDeletetrade?
ReplyDeletethis team does no such thing.
when? when they feel like it? when it's a 2 for 1?
when what?
we're 30th. we're 30th again?
i'd like to see two statues of tambellini outside of rexall hoisting a lottery machine likes he's winning something.
edmonton is a lottery machine. the fix is 35.