The Oilers are looking good for a lottery pick at this time, and the injuries will certainly help. Holding them back from the #1 selection is Martin Brodeur. The first ballot HOFer has a 5-18 record and a .882SP, which is the 70th best (of 75 overall) save percentage in the leaque. Jack Lemire is blaming the rookies but every Brodeur start from here on in puts the Devils closer to Sean Couturier.
Speaking of Couturier, he'll be in action for Canada this afternoon at 1pm on tsn and Team 1260. They play the Swiss in the QF's and there's no word yet on which goalie gets the start.
Troy Hesketh was traded again. The story is here and Guy Flaming does his usual strong work here.
His new GM:
- Luke Strand: “Troy is a great skater. He has good instincts, and again he’s a nice two-way defenseman that can get around the rink.He makes a very good first pass, he’s a competitive kid, and he’s got a very bright future ahead of him. We want to give him a fresh start here and we’re confident in the idea that surrounding him with the talent we have here will make him a better player and in turn make us a better team.”
- Gabe Desjardins: It is clear that regardless of the analysis method, players who play in the USHL and CHL perform approximately the same once they get to higher-level leagues. Allowing for a year's worth of improvement, 18-year-olds in the USHL would maintain their level of scoring at age 19 if they transferred to Canadian Tier I Junior. Were they to transfer during the same season, they would likely maintain at least 80% of their scoring.
Gabe's reporting on the subject is here. That information would have been helpful when dealing with Jeff Petry (a USHL player 2005-07), but Troy Hesketh hasn't scored a point yet in the USHL. He's a defensive defenseman, but his stats line is somewhat incredible even for a stay-at-home defender:
- 22gp, 0-0-0 -12 30pims 8SOG
I haven't been hearing the greatest of news on Bigos either. Despite being a collegian, apparently he's not the sharpest key on the old piana. He wants to go to the AHL to get away from his studies and I imagine he will if the Oilers will let him. It also means he will likely start in the E and not the A, to his chagrin.
ReplyDeleteVisetin gets the start against the Swiss.
ReplyDeleteThe tourney of small sample sizes turn the fan base off a player.
Hearing that the tourney of small sample sizes Hero didn't break anything is good news.
Hope its not a high ankle sprain, those can take as long as a break to heal.
I would imagine we'll see Omark called up to fill the gap on right wing. Would be nice to see Reddox called up at some point but if I'm not mistaken, he's typically playing on the left side. Would be an error to call up someone and make him play on something other than his usual wing.
ReplyDeleteThe concerns about this draft is that there is no real top end elite talent. The top 4 all have knocks against them.
ReplyDeleteIt is however supposed to be decent in 2nd and 3rd tier talent... there's decent depth there from 20-50... maybe better than average.
I like. Couturier's size, but not his skill level or the attitude questions. RNH has the skill but lacks the size and there are toughness questions. Larsson is now projected to be less than Hedman or OEL. Landeskog brings everything but elite hands.
Redline reports that at least two teams have Landeskog as their number one and they have dropped Larsson to 4th.
With the lack of an elite Dman and questions hanging over the two centres, should we be focused on the RWer?
And if so, from where would that coveted #1 C come? Pitlick is not going to be that guy.
Would anyone here be willing to shop Hemsky to LAK for Schenn or to CBJ for Johansen? And then draft Landeskog?
Or is that going with way too many kiddies too quickly? (And wasting Hemsky)
Bigos is also not really a college guy on the ice. He is racking up a lot of PIM's (when you figure he can't fight) and is most noted for his physical play.
ReplyDeleteA move to the CHL, AHL, or even ECHL would probably be best for him. If he makes the show it will be as a thumper who will have to fight. He might as well learn how to do it now.
I see Cody Wild just got farmed to the ECHL.
And the NYI trading their #1 goalie right in the middle of a winning streak? Whats next? Getting rid of the hot water, cancelling practices and making guys drive themselves to road games?
Woodguy,
ReplyDeleteFor whatever reason (nerves?) Roy has looked very poor to my eye. I suspect he is fundamentally poor, but really we need some criteria to state what we should be expecting from goalies of this age at this level.
I'm hoping we don't pick a goalie just cause he has the equipment -- like in my backyard of yore.
spOiler: I was just thinking the same thing last night. I don't know if any of these lottery guys will be NHL ready next year.
ReplyDeleteAs for B. Schenn...I don't think he's a true #1C, and I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a lot of people who do.
Roy actually did have some buzz about him on draft day.
ReplyDeleteRanked
Redline: 56
Bob McKenzie: HM
THN: 38
TSN: 39
Ducey,
ReplyDeleteBigos feels frustrated there and from what I've heard regrets going the NCAA route.
Would anyone here be willing to shop Hemsky to LAK for Schenn or to CBJ for Johansen? And then draft Landeskog?
ReplyDeleteI have beating the drum to draft Landeskog for a while - so yes.
And I don't mind trading Hemmer for a future #1 - but is Schenn that guy? You can't get too excited about the WJ tourney. There are lots of weak teams. Previous Oiler regimes made that mistake, a lot.
LA's best prospect is Forbort. I'd focus on him.
Moose,
ReplyDeleteJohansen would be my preference actually (and he had a worse pedigree) but I think Schenn may have turned a few heads playing at the TOSSS, lol.
Lots of guys... Datsyuk, Getzlaf and Stastny for eg, aren't originally projected to be #1 Cs.
Ducey... Forbort is a nice player but I don't think anyone can say he's clearly a better prospect than Schenn. And there appears to be a little less offense there than hoped.
ReplyDeleteWould anyone here be willing to shop Hemsky to LAK for Schenn or to CBJ for Johansen? And then draft Landeskog?
ReplyDeleteYour not getting that type of player for just 1 year or 1.25 years of Hemsky.
It would have to be done once Hemksy can sign an extension, or adding in a nice piece.
That being said, Hemsky is still going to be a very good player for 4+ years, you might not get better even long term trading him away if he is willing to sign here.
CBJ might part with Johansen for the right price, Howson is reported to be on the hot seat, so he may see making the playoffs/immediate improvement as worth it.
The only other GM really on the hot seat (great ones to target for raiding their kids/picks)is Bryan Murray (I like Cowen, and they pick high again this year).
Darcy Regier has been in BUF forever so even though the team is in trouble, I'm not sure that means he's in trouble. He has a history of doing more with less, and that's fairly rare.
spOiler: Fair enough (RE: Datsyuk, Getzlef, etc), I just don't see the real high-end offensive skill/upside from Schenn. But maybe he turns out to be a Toews-type with a little less offense. Clearly he has a lot of the other tools.
ReplyDeleteI'd take Johansen of the two, as well. If he just improves his skating a bit he looks like a good grab for CBJ.
spOILer,
ReplyDeleteGiven where the Oilers got Roy (5th round, 133rd Overall), having him become a solid AHL goalie is probably considered success.
I'm not washing my hands at the kid, he has played poor in this tourney and tourneys are about winning right now, so sitting him is probably the right thing to do.
That being said, he has tools, but desperately needs a goalie coach who understands that a 6'0 goalie can't kneel in the blue paint and cover the top of net.
Speaking from personal experience with a bad ankle sprain, it might have been better long-term if Eberle broke his ankle.
ReplyDeleteI was the one railing about the jello shots to celebrate MPS, asking if the scouts were trying to get fired when they drafted Hesketh and Abney (for the record, Lander too).
If it were up to me, its Visentin's job to lose from here on out.
Not worried about Roy yet. Pogge's WJHC success is as relevant to his career today as Roy's poor showing will be to him in a few years.
I am still on the Larsson bandwagon - gonna be as useful as Couturier, and may still be the stud that was anticipated. (This is where the uncertainty on young Dmen can be used to swing the decision the other way).
I'd take Johansen of the two, as well. If he just improves his skating a bit he looks like a good grab for CBJ.
ReplyDeleteOilers loved Johansen at the draft and tried to trade for that pick. Not sure what they offered.
They offered Hesmky + Eberle for Seguin, so its not out of the realm of possibility that they offered Hemsky for him already.
Yeah, didn't Tambo say at the draft table (in "Oil Change") that they asked for Eberle?
ReplyDeleteMoose,
ReplyDeleteNot sure if v3.0 was talking about CBJ asking for Eberle, but it could have been.
World Junior history of underagers:
ReplyDelete2010 had Hall, El Nino and Jack Campbell.
2009 had John Tavares as MVP.
2008 had both Drew Doughty and Victor Hedman on the all-tournament team, Hedman as a 17 year old and Filatov was 2nd in scoring.
2007 had both Patrick Kane and the late Alexei Cherapanov on the all tournament team.
In 2006, Phil Kessel went supernova to lead the tournament in scoring and Nick Backstrom wasn't far behind.
2005 was the greatest team of all time because of the lockout and the amazing Class of 2003 so was dominated by the old guys, but Sidney Crosby made quite an impact too.
Thanks for the history lesson there douchebag, but what's your point?
Well, random italicized voice, I do wonder if it's time to start worrying about who we're tanking for. As WG says, this is the tournament of small sample sizes but it's been a long while since there's been no draft eligible player make any significant impact.
Couturier and Larsson should be dominating based on history but I doubt either ends up on any all-tournament lists. Landeskog is hurt and Musil too. The big winners are guys like RNH, Murph, Saad Siemens and Strome who are watching on TV and probably seeing their stock go up. The sleepers like Joel Armia and Bartschi have two points total.
We all know the number of pure busts has dropped dramatically over the past decade but there are years the elite players just aren't there. Cam Barker at 3 wasn't an awful pick there just wasn't much left. Bobby Ryan, Jack Johnson and Benoit Pouliot went 2,3 and 4 after Crosby.
And the one that concerns me most is 2007. Pat Kane went first but after that went JVR, Turris, Hickey, Alzner, Gagner, Voracek and Hamill. I'm not sure there's another true first liner in there, let alone all-star.
Based on what I'm seeing, don't count on another Taylor Hall coming next year. More likely a range from Cam Barker to Bobby Ryan and a few years wait until they can really help.
Woodguy,
ReplyDeleteYeah I think was the scene talking about Johansen and then Tambo gets off phone and says "they asked for Eberle" and Stu then lets out a "fuck right off" laugh.
Could have been something edited out of context but seems logical.
Couturier is 4gp, 2-1-3 +5 on a Canadian team that has totalled 28 goals (or 7 per game). He has not scored on the PP.
ReplyDeleteHall went 6gp, 6-6-12 +3 on a team that scored 46 goals (or 7.7 a game). He scored twice on the PP.
Couturier isn't in the same offensive league as Hall, but we kind of knew that, right?
He's also not being used on the PP as much as Hall to my eye (correct me if I'm wrong) and I'd love to see TOI totals.
Bottom line: this is a very short tournament. Couturier is on track to score a pile of points again this season and has a nice range of skills.
I'd be fine with Couturier.
Just to add something to knighttown's post, because I agree with everything he said...
ReplyDeleteBeyond worrying about the possibility of tanking in a potentially down draft year, the problem with announcing publicly that you're tearing it all down is that it becomes harder to fill your holes via free agency. Most players who have reached UFA status are older and want to win at that stage of their careers. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's tough.
Who's to say that Tambo doesn't view this as "the Pittsburgh model" and thinks we need FOUR or FIVE lottery picks a la (Staal, Fleury, Malkin, Crosby, etc)?
I just hope this is the last year of suckage, because as much as Taylor Hall has made me appreciate the need for elite talent, I can't take 2 more years of losing.
For the record I'm still on the Larsson bandwagon as well.
Off-topic:
ReplyDeleteHamilton playing on a line with the big dogs today (Johansen and Schenn).
That's per Bobby Mac.
RNH has the skill but lacks the size and there are toughness questions.
ReplyDeleteSaw RNH play last night and he isn't as small as I remember, plus he was strong on his feet. Had a few nice checks and put up with the fact the Blades hit him every chance they got.
At one point behind the play he high sticked Lucas Sutter who returned the favour by dropping the gloves and punching him in the kisser a few times, but he ate the shots and handled himself well.
Of course, Red Deer didn't like that so Cowan blind side punched an unaware Stefan Elliott in the head. (In fine Bertuzzi fashion) and Wallin decided RNH would not play the entire 3rd period because he was worried the Blades would come after him again.
This Draft looks like one of those solid ones where you dont really get those elite/superstar players, but many complete players who if unspectacular are solid and capable of contributing in the top 6F or top 4D.
ReplyDeleteHall was used in a scoring role for Team Canada and SC isnt. I think that is one of the reasons for the difference in points.
Moving Hemsky for Johansson might be a good idea. But Johansson again is not your #1 center. He will be a bigger and grittier version of Gagner. I dont think there is much separating Johansson and Schenn other than one is a couple of inches taller than the other.
Am i the only one who doesnt like Leblanc? I did not like him as a mid first round pick in 09. Then i wasnt really impressed with his point totals in college and even in the Q his scoring is decidedly average. He hasnt looked much of a difference maker in the WJC. He reminds me of Riley Nash...a lot. A good kid but not really someone to hype as much as Leblanc has been
ReplyDeleteSplitting hairs about prospects... I see we all retreat to our happy place when unthinkable trauma happens (see: Eberle hurt in loss to Flames).
ReplyDeleteDidn't Hamilton get promoted before last game? If not, he definitely spent some time on Schenn's flank during. ToSSS has found a new golden child in LA's young pivot & our boy should benefit. If we emerge triumphant, I'll bet you the Oilers are on the receiving end of prospect envy once again. All it'll take is a nice, heavy snapper from Ham off a buttery Schenn pass to win in OT or some such nonesense & boom. Instant star.
How important is size in a #1 centre?
ReplyDeleteI'd like to ask Sidney Crosby and Matt Duchene.
The rash of injuries is another reason that I struggle with the idea of building a weak team to 'compete' for a lottery pick. When you have little depth your best players have to play, even if they are a little banged up. You can't blame no roster depth on the poor ice or the trainers.
ReplyDeleteI am very frustrated about the Eberle injury, as freak a play as it was. With Horcoff out and only Ryan Jones to take his place, man, that is a huge hole. Omark can play, but he is a high event player and there's already too much given up the wrong way on the roster now.
I don't care who the Oilers draft at this point, because it won't cover the holes that management refuses to fill. Woodguy has more faith in some purpose than I do. The track record suggests an unwillingness to make moves simply from a desire to save face on what was previously constructed roster-wise.
I think a couple of waiver pick ups and a small deal or two would be wise at this point in the season, but I don't see anything happening until too late.
ReplyDeleteWG...
ReplyDeleteAgreed on Roy w.r.t. draft position.
Slightly (but only slightly) off-topic, I struggle to get excited about future draft picks.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's because, as my user name suggests, I'm not Canadian (or American); over here, if you're a lousy team, you get relegated, not rewarded with failure. Think Oilers being bumped to the AHL.
All this talk of Couturier or the Swede or whoever is depressing when, night after night, we fail to ice a team capable of winning NHL games. All this talk of diving for whatever consensus dicates to be the BPA just doesn't sit right when I my only urge is to watch the Oilers win. I love this blog, and the intelligent insight regularly offered, but sometimes we lose track of the matter at hand: it sucks to lose, and the Oilers lose a great deal.
<>
The hard part of the season begins here.
ReplyDeletewow, reading here today, it's like you've all decided that Roy is the next Greg Norman! Destined to shot 80 in the final round.
ReplyDeletei think it's very unfair to think of him that way. this tournament removes every snippet of routine for a goalie; a position which we know is for the weird-headed. give the kid a break.
sometimes, it's like we expect all of our draft picks to perform like they were picked in the top 10 and it's just not realistic. the fact that the kid made it and "was" the starter, says a lot more than anything i'm reading here. (but i love you guys!)
Glasgow, you're right, things work very differently over here.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure you and Tyler@MC79 (he's thrilled about Blackpool's promotion) would love to discuss a European-style system for the NHL, but it wouldn't work. The fundamental infrastructure and economics are completely different.
Also, Edmonton would rarely, if ever, compete in the NHL if we had that style of system. Just as Arsenal, Chelsea and Man U can spend their way to the top, Toronto, New York, Boston, and maybe Chicago would bury every other team.
I saw O. Roy play against the Wildcats here back in October. Only 1 game and Moncton was scoring a lot of goals, but what I saw that game was what we sort of see in WJCs. He seems to play deep, doesn't seem to challenge the shooter and not a whole lot of athleticism to my eye anyway.
ReplyDeleteNot saying he won't develop but was it not Brodziak who was traded for him? Brodziak seems to have found a solid game in Minny.
@ Bad Wojo
ReplyDeleteOf course you're right (in my other life I'm a long term Patriots fan, used to watching Steve Grogan throw many a turnover on our way to another losing season, so get the parity / winning idea). The Altanic Ocean is a massive barrier in regards to sports.
Saying that, it's heartbreaking to watch defeat after defeat when every single poster on here, on ON, on Copper and Blue can see the issues with the roster with their eyes closed.
Sports are about winning, or at least having faith that your team will win. Call me impatient,but I'd like to win now. I may be busy in seven years time.
Brodziak was solid here too. That was a bad trade. And we still havent been able to replace him.
ReplyDeleteBrodziak>>>>>Omarra, Fraser
Wojo:
ReplyDeleteI'll overlook the fact that you compared all hockey centres ever to this era's Howe/Great One/Super Mario and address the bare bones.
Sure, Duchene & Crosby are average size, but you need to take a closer look at their body types. These guys carry a huge amount of weight in their lower bodies thanks to genetics that provided them with thighs like tree trunks. Because of this, each are able to pack on muscle to their "average" frames without losing speed. Take some time to watch the power in either player's stride & the edge it gives them. In my books, they do qualify as big, despite not being tall.
The idea that Couturier-types have a higher chance of being successful centres/NHLers revolve around their abundance of physical gifts. If you're arguing that Gagner or RNH could be an effective 1C, then yes that's absolutely possibl. But they are completely different players than 87/9. While we haven't yet seen The Nuge fully develop, I think we can all agree that he's not going to suddenly put on 20 lbs. of muscle and play the same game that got him noticed. For example, in Gagner's case, he tried packing on muscle last season and he slowed down. He's on record as saying how much more comfortable he is at his current size.
Put Roy in??
ReplyDeleteOff topic but Belle and O'Marra sent down. Does Omark or Ginger get a recall now?
ReplyDeleteBTW, they could also send JFJ down, but I'm thinking him staying has more to do w/how much money Katz is willing to eat at this point of the year more than anything.
@ Glasgow Oil: Over here teams cannot sign players to schoolboy contracts like they do where you live.
ReplyDeleteThe way they get new young talent is to draft them, all when they're 18 years old.
To tell you the truth I don't understand nor do I have the slightest empathy for your position. It might as well have been written by Craig MacTavish, another scot.
I've suffered this team from childhood until now. If it takes the draft to make them a real contender again(something I'm certain you have personally never seen the Oilers be), then that's the way it is.
cue the "we needed to start roy" talk.
ReplyDeletewow...the dichotomy between "sparkly" and "experience" is a fun thing to watch in fans, especially in a small sample size.
it's like you've all decided that Roy is the next Greg Norman! Destined to shot 80 in the final round.
ReplyDeleteNot Me.
I think that Roy is so far from helping an NHL team win games that he's not worth fretting over right now.
Now St Pete's goalie in the Spengler Cup is another story:
Jakub Stepanek
Born Jun 20 1986
Height 6.01, Weight 156
Last 3 seasons:
07-08 Vitkovice HC 0.928
09-10 Vitkovice HC 0.921
10-11 St. Petersburg 0.925
I only saw him in the Gold Medal game, I saw his rebound control very good
Hunter - thanks for biting.
ReplyDeleteI'm not naive enough to argue for a European style rookie system in the NHL.
I'm just a naive & distant Oilers fan who's getting a little tired staying up for 4am (as we hafta do over here) to watch the team I root for lose. When we all discus to hilt the fixes that will get us into the post season. 3xD. 2X RHC.
Yeah, I don't give a F... for who may or may not be in Oilers silk until the moment they're drafted. In Europe we care for who plays for our teams, not who may one day will.
I saw that exchange in Oil Change the exact same way, that Eberle's name came up in the Johansen talks and that was that for the discussion. Loved MacGregor's reaction - he knows what we've got in Eberle.
ReplyDeleteStill not sure why Tambo didn't come back with an offer of Cogliano, JFJ, JDD and a mismatched pair of practice socks for Johansen and next year's first rounder, but that's just the sort of useless twat that Tambellini is.
Btw, Woodguy, do you have it on good authority that the Oilers did offer Hemsky and Eberle for the Seguin pick? My understanding was that was where the Oil drew the line.
That Hemsky/Eberle offer for Seguin had me spitting my wine on the floor. No, it's not hardwood, it's carpet.
ReplyDeleteIt's the first warning sign about Tambellini that I absolutely couldn't ignore.
Strudwick is the second.
Good day.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy and Bad Wojo, we've gone thru this before.
Ryan Rishaug interviewed Chiarelli on the draft floor. It was RR who speculated that names like Hemsky and Eberle were part of the conversation for the #2 pick. Chiarelli stated that NO NAMES HAD BEEN MENTIONED, but he would have expected players of that ilk IF he was in the market to make the trade.
I'd have to think that IF Boston was looking to trade the Seguin pick, they'd have had much better offers from other teams.
L8r
Louise
Thanks for the clarification.
ReplyDeleteIt's all good, BW.
ReplyDeleteLT also mentioned Dreger's tweet from pre-draft in his newer thread.
Yeah read L.Ts post in the next thread.
ReplyDeleteDreger mentioned the names.
Of course Chia isn't going to confirm any names on a trade that wasn't made.
Dreger then mentioned that 3.0 was shopping 13 for a first and Tambellini gave his the triple look of death.
Tambellini was royally pissed about the names getting out in the Heatley fiasco and HATES name speculation.
Dreger doesn't throw names around lightly, I think he had the goods on the Seguin deal.
Given what MBS thought/thinks of Seguin I don't think that trade is terrible.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWoodguy, I agree that Dreger has some inside insight, but he stated himself in his tweet that it was speculation. Ryan Rishaug repeated the speculated names.
ReplyDeleteIf names had actually been mentioned, it would have been logical for Chiarelli to say something like, 'I'm not going comment on players on another team.' But, he specified that no players had been named.
The fact that he didn't trade the #2 pick to any team suggests that he had no interest in trading it, so discussions would not have proceeded to naming any intended assets. His comments appear to be consistent with his actions.
btw - I don't recall the 13 for a first info, did Dreger say anything like, 'It's been speculated that Tambellini offered Cogliano for a first round pick.', before getting the hairy eyeball?
:-)
He was interviewing Tambellini on the floor and mentioned the 13 thing.
ReplyDeleteIf looks could kill...
When Dreger mentioned Hemsky/Eberle during the draft, it was on the big screen at Rexall. The corwd booed loudly at the mention of trading Eberle, which was kind of cool in that Ebs was on the stage at the time. Funny thing was the name "Hemsky" didn't draw near the reaction.
ReplyDeleteIF those names were mentioned as the possible basis for a Seguin trade, it's still pretty unclear who said "no" at that point. Let's just say I sure wouldn't tar and feather Tambellini based on such a speculative commentary as that "trade offer". There's lots to criticize in his actual record without the need to make shit up.