There's a rumor going 'round that Shawn Horcoff will play tonight. Horcoff has a legion of fans and another group (equally large) who don't think much of him. Count me in as one of those who is pleased that #10 is back.
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#83 is injured again. I think the Oilers have to think long and hard about signing him to a long term contract. I've always been a fan, but Hemmer is missing a lot of games this season (and last). I remain hopeful that both Hemsky and Penner sign long term contracts but there is some legit concern here. The Oilers lost him for 60 games a year ago and this will be his 14th this season.
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Last night's top prospects game was fun, better than most of these tilts. Up arrows include Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, David Musil, Douglas Hamilton, Mark McNeill and Sven Bartschi. Lots of action in this game, I thought Duncan Siemens had a good game too.
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I think it's time we begin the process of measuring this Oiler rookie crop against others. The three kids up front now have company in Omark, Petry is coming along very nicely and Dubnyk is showing well. So, what are the other candidates for rookie crops? We'll look at it as time rolls on.
Regardless of what one thinks about Shawn Horcoff (and to be fair, he'd probably be a universally respected Oiler with a smaller contract), I don't know how anyone could dispute that he's hugely needed by this club at the moment. There is a gaping hole on this team for a pivot who can win draws and play solid defence. Last I checked that was squarely in Horc's wheelhouse.
ReplyDeleteIn a perfect world, this bumps Cogliano to the wing so the Hall at center evaluation can continue. How much do we want to bet that Renney sees it differently however and Horcoff's return means Hall moves back to the wing?
According to Tychkowski the Oilers are:
ReplyDelete10-10-4 with Horc in the lineup and 4-14-3 without him.
That's significant.
Last 13 Oilers games:
Khabby 0-9-0
DD 1-1-2
Hubbub is that 35 starts tonight. 40 is not as sick, but not good enough to start.
RNH looked very slick out there last night.
Gagner looked very slick as a junior too.
There have been many good junior centers who didn't pan out in the NHL due to size. (RNH is listed at 6'0, but his frame isn't one that fills out a lot like other can like Hall)
There has been more than a few smallish C's make a big impact at the NHL level (Sakic is the holy grail of these types of players, drafted 15th overall)
Matt Duchene is only 5'11, but he's thick at 200lbs, which is key for handling the NHL game.
We all know about the Oilers passing on Parise due to size concerns.
This is only going to get more interesting.
MBS has his work cut out for him.
All indications from the MSM on the morning radio suggest the top line will be a Horpenall experiment tonight against big D.
ReplyDeleteVery interesting was the large ammount of praise for Mr. Huddy and his work on developing the D corps for the Stars. If you think about the defensemen who were really at the top of their games while Huddy was here, and where they are now...
Souray - 1 carreer year
Gilbert - 2 Carreer years
Grebeshkov - 1 career year
Now granted, there are other players who really didn't get as much with huddy here - Smid, Visnovsky, Pitkanen, Staois (although he had managed to be effective beyond what his speed should have allowed, so maybe he's more of a positive..)
Still, Peckham and Petry seem to be doing well with Mr. Smith, so it could be worse. Really wish that Gilbert had someon else as an established top 4 d man to take some of the heavy lifting from him.
http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2009/07/huddy-to-haunt-us.html
ReplyDelete10-10-4 with Horc in the lineup and 4-14-3 without him.
ReplyDeleteThat's significant.
I'll play Devil's Advocate here somewhat and say that it's hard to decipher what portion of that difference in win/loss record is due to Horcoff because there were other key guys out with injuries while he was out too (Hemsky, Whitney, etc.)
That being said, anyone who tries to argue we're somehow better-off without Horcoff in the lineup is, to put it politely, not very smart.
Jordan - I'd disagree with you a bit - Lubo was driving results when Huddy was here and when he was gone, he was what he was when he got here, a pretty good Dman, undersized but overall a positive.
ReplyDeleteStaios developed from a nobody into a top four Dman under Huddy.
Smid got thrown into the deep end which absolutely hurt his development. Hard to get a 21 year old to play top four minutes unless that 21 year old is Drew Doughty.
And Pitkanen was fine. jmo in this case
Now having said that I think that based on Petry and Peckham's play so far that Smith/Renney seem to have a handle on teaching Dmen as well.
But they are consistent, you have to give them that.
ReplyDeleteLook kids, Big Ben!
Horc's return can't happen soon enough for me. This team has become largely unwatchable for me over the last few games. Prospect development is all well and good but I need to see this team competing. They've looked absolutely putrid in the last couple of weeks and I'm hopeful the Captain's return gets everyone taking it up a notch.
ReplyDeleteIf nothing else, we've learned that Gagner, Foster, Gilbert et al don't have what it takes to be top tier power play contributors. Watching the Oil on the PP is like watching a table hockey match. Apparently the offensive 'specialists' on this team are unaware of the fact that they can move outside of a narrowly defined channel path. Our man disadvantage is beyond predicable.
Horc's return can't happen soon enough for me.
ReplyDeleteI just hope he's ready to go. With another three years on his contract it's best if he heals up and doesn't play through his injuries again.
Lee, couldn't help but look up the exact definition of "putrid"
ReplyDeletePer dictionary.com - "in a state of foul decay or decomposition, as animal or vegetable matter; rotten."
Yuck. I thought they were more putrid at the end of last year than they are currently.
I still want Hemmer to sign an extension. Even half or 2/3's a season of Hemsky is far better than none.
ReplyDeleteMarsha, I have to disagree strongly and hope Tambi feels the same way. If we assume that players are assets and compiling enough of them gives you a shot at Lord Stanley, then I think we need to look for an opportunity to 'sell high' on fragile Ales.
ReplyDeleteIf we could pick the 2/3rds of the season we have Hemsky, then I could see that argument making sense, but what if the 1/3rd he's out is when the team needs him the most?
I can't wait to watch Petry tonight. Great defencemen make great teams, and Chuddy was a very solid one on the ice, and really quality behind the bench. We miss you, Chuddy.
ReplyDeleteKurtis Foster makes Gord Mark look like Rod Langway!
It will be good for Hall to have Horcoff out there with him, the Oilers have a better balance with #10 out there.
One thing has stood out for me: since winning the fastest player at that All-Star game, Horc has definitely lost a step or three. Has anyone else noticed his skating style now incorporates a little pump push to get him going? This is something used by NHL players to maintain a fast glide, not for accelerating from a dead stop.
What gives, and Audrey Bakewell please help Horc get his speed back! Watching him against Detroit earlier this year was illuminating, as he was always 2 steps behind in puck pressure and totally ineffective in between the blues or forechecking.
Finally 10 is back. I hope he has fully recovered. Oilers do have a tendency to rush back players.
ReplyDeleteBut I am damn happy. We have missed 10 a lot.
It finally brings an experienced center back into the mix. We need his skill and experience more than anything.
How many games until fans turn on Petry for not being physical enough? It's going to happen eventually.
ReplyDelete@Ribs
ReplyDeleteI LOLed so hard. Petry does kinda seem like the Gilbert 2.0
It's pretty bad, SumOil. Check out a freinds facebook status and its thread after the last game...
ReplyDeleteDear Mr Tambelini, please realese or buy out Tom Gilbert's ridiculously over paid contract.
Thanks
was gonna say trade him but no one in their right mind is in need of a turnover factory
Reply - Let's all pray to the oiler gods(Daryl Katz ) that Gilbert get traded or bought out
At least sit out this fool healthy scratch for a few games and show him videos of his mistakes
Reply 2 - I was starting to think I was the only one that thought that! We'd be better off with Sourey and his broken hand.
Yea. Gilbert's the problem. Sheesh.
Ribs/SumOil:
ReplyDeleteIt always seems to happen with d-men, going back to Poti.
It's fair to say that Petry has been better than expected since he got here and that Chorney has been decent (now that he's not tied to Struds). Have we seen the last of 43 in an Oiler lineup?
Am glad that Horcoff is back. Am one who thinks his value will never be appreciated until he is gone thanks to KLowe. Hopefully Eberle is back soon too.
Hopefully Horcoff has been practising his faceooffs...Richards schooled us last game by the tune of 15 draws to 1.
ReplyDeleteRibs: I always laugh when I read from the MSM about our "knowledgable hockey fans" & then read stuff like that. Probably the reason why we're stuck with mutts like Lowe & Tambellini running the team into the ground.
ReplyDeleteOne of those Mutts being the same chap who thought Gilbert was fair market value at $4 mil per?
ReplyDeleteWell, Gilbert is.
ReplyDeleteThe mutts can't be wrong everytime.
Twice a day is the rule
Man, can you imagine how awesome it would be if Lowe and Tambellini were, jointly or severally, right twice per day? The mind boggles.
ReplyDeleteTwice a day is the rule
ReplyDeleteThat would imply some decisions were being made every day. Two decisions made in a day sounds high.
That would imply some decisions were being made every day. Two decisions made in a day sounds high.
ReplyDeleteWell, it's quite a few days running that they haven't tried to entice Byron Dafoe out of retirement with a multi-year contract (as far as we know), so maybe that counts as one of them right there.
Tom Gilbert has the 33rd highest cap hit of any D-man in the NHL this season. In a 30 team league, this should mean if he's not a legitimate number 1 defenseman for your team, he's absolutely knocking on the door.
ReplyDeleteTom Gilbert is not the number one defenseman on the worst team in the league (ladies and gents - The Edmonton Oilers) never mind on any other team in the league.
We can debate the quality of this player ad infinitum but there's no debating that from a pure market value perspective, he's overpaid at $4 mil per. Yet another example of Lowe paying for potential instead of production.
We can debate the quality of this player ad infinitum but there's no debating that from a pure market value perspective, he's overpaid at $4 mil per.
ReplyDeleteUm, yes there is. To take one example, have a look through the response to your repeated assertions of this, in which people have, you know, debated it. And, generally, come out ahead.
You really need to stop asserting that there's no debating things.
Go ahead Steve, make a tenable argument for Tom Gilbert's market value at $4 mil this season. Illuminate us all with your knowledge and admiration of all things Gilbertian.
ReplyDelete"Steve Smith" said...
ReplyDeleteMan, can you imagine how awesome it would be if Lowe and Tambellini were, jointly or severally, right twice per day?
They are. Once for each sock that matches.
I'm not sure about Couturier. The big bodies always get higher rankings than their skill would garner. I'm okay with reaching for size sometimes. Abney was a reasonable gamble in the third round which likely hasn't worked out, but reaching for size with a lottery pick? I'm not suggesting Couturier lacks skill, but is he as skilled and fast as the other guys at the top of the rankings? Skill doesn't translate to the NHL very well without speed. I've seen him bad now a few times, and I can't help thinking he is JvR v2.0, which isn't terrible, but isn't lottery material. Another consideration is slow power forwards take a lot longer to adjust to the NHL than their speedy, highly skilled counterparts. How patient is this fanbase going to be with SC if he takes 5 years to break double digits in goals, especially after seeing Hall do what he has done in his rookie season? I would rather the Oil uses this pick for skill...BPA, not "SC because we need size up the middle". I'm not sure SC will be the BPA when Tambellini gets his turn at the podium.
ReplyDeleteHere we go
ReplyDeleteFrickin Square Peg Hemsky one day
Soft Gilbert the next.
Now that Horcoff the Plug is back from injury, he can be re-added to the rotation.
Gilbert is one of about 30 guys using more than 3.5 and less than 4.5
- Kaberle, Brewer, Liles, Ballard, Streit, Meszaros, Wideman, Stuart, Orpik, Kuba....
I'd say Gilbert belongs in that group
I have Gilbert as 33rd in league cap for cap hit, on a list that doesn't include Redden or Souray, which indicates to me he is at best a #2 defenseman in this league (since he is not in the top 30).
ReplyDeleteAlso as his cap hit reaches into the future a lot farther than other guys and is thus getting smaller each year with respect to cap ceiling in this mad mad mad inflationary world, I would say he is getting paid like a 2/3 guy, which is exactly what he is to this team.
And finally, some 1/2 guys won't show up on a cap hit list as they are playing on solely RFA contracts, meaning Gilbert is actually farther down the list of League Dmen than his cap hit alone would indicate.
The next 30 guys on the cap hit list are within $500K of Gilbert so there is some serious flattening of the curve with regards to this level of defensemen... to echo Mr. DeBakey's thoughts somewhat.
ReplyDeleteOkay, here's just one example (of many) of an argument that Gilbert's not overpaid. Let's look at all the defensemen who meet the following criteria:
ReplyDelete* at least 30 games played
* in their teams' top two in quality of competition (among those with at least 30 games played)
* at least fifteen minutes of ES icetime per game
This seems like a pretty fair definition of "top pairing defenseman".
Of the firty-six defensemen who qualify under that metric, Gilbert is seventeenth in relative Corsi, and tied for nineteenth in even strength scoring for sixty minutes.
He is (according to you - I haven't checked this), the thirty-third highest paid defenseman in the league.
Also, for anyone who is wondering, "firty-six" means "fifty-six", not "thirty-six" or some hybrid of the two.
ReplyDeleteThough I admit that none of this holds a candle to your proof by assertion.
ReplyDeleteSteve I like your argument, but would that mean neither Pronger or Markov are first pairing defensemen?
ReplyDeletePronger clears the thirty game hurdle, Markov doesn't. Any set of criteria you can come up with is going to be vulnerable to this sort of thing, but having a set of criteria is still far more useful than cherrypicking your data set.
ReplyDeleteI'm getting pretty tired of the ragging on Gilbert as well.
ReplyDeleteI never understood why typical Oiler fans like to rag on the guys who are deemed overpaid. It's like the group thinking is that they are stealing money from us the fans when really they should be placing the blame on the guys who offered them the money in the first place.
Gilbert getting paid at 4 million dollars is NOT the reason why the Oilers are bad. The reason why the Oilers aren't any good is because we don't have enough good hockey players. We need more Gilbert and Horcoffs at this point... not less of them.
The Oilers aren't even close to the cap so why are you bothering argueing if Gilbert is overpaid or not. Getting rid of Gilbert is not going to help the Oilers at this point.
Though Pronger *does* miss the cut on the basis of insufficient ES minutes and insufficiently tough competition.
ReplyDeleteEven if we want to include him, though, he's behind Gilbert on both the metrics I identified.
Gilbert's pay is fine. He's not giving us any deal but I think he earns his stub.
ReplyDeletePlus this team sucks so much shit I don't care about the odd gaff that a a guy playing too many minutes is making.
As to this all-star draft nonsense. I think a better idea would be to have all the players show up to the game.
Have the forwards throw their sticks in a pile and have one of the alternates cover the eyes of the captain and start throwing sticks.
Repeat with defensemen and goalies and you have your teams. Americans wouldn't understand what was going on but any kid who played street hockey would love that.
Gilbert getting paid at 4 million dollars is NOT the reason why the Oilers are bad. The reason why the Oilers aren't any good is because we don't have enough good hockey players. We need more Gilbert and Horcoffs at this point... not less of them.
ReplyDeleteYou're absolutely right. But in fairness to Lee, he's not saying that we should get rid of Gilbert (at least, I don't think he is). He's saying that Gilbert's overpaid. He's wrong about that, of course, but, in the interests of fairness and intellectual honesty, it's important not to overstate what he's wrong about.
I like the sticks idea best too, but part of me also wants to see the Sedin sisters on different teams.
ReplyDeleteGo ahead Steve, make a tenable argument for Tom Gilbert's market value at $4 mil this season. Illuminate us all with your knowledge and admiration of all things Gilbertian.
ReplyDeleteSeems like he did pretty good.
Lee, can you make an argument that Gilbert is what you say he is?
Please make sure its an argument with facts not just a bunch of assertions about what you think.
Hbomb,
No question that other things are going on with the Oiler's w&w/o 10. He is probably a reasonable part of it, given his role, and results.
Steve,
ReplyDeleteI agree with finding players who match an agreed upon set of criteria as opposed to determining the top pairing guys and then finding the criteria they all meet (although likely there has to be some give and take there as picking the criteria came from somewhere).
However, if you were picking for a team to make a Stanley Cup run this year and had a choice between Pronger and Gilbert on a top pairing, which player would you take?
I love stats but there often seems to be this problem that they're an abstraction of reality rather than reality itself.
Or are the sample sizes just too small for the question I am asking (better first pairing guy)? Can we base first pairing on a portion of a year's work... or are we just looking at a snapshot in time right now as far as the issue Lee raised and thus the most immediate snapshot reflects the present reality the best?
Or (finally I hope) does the sample size reflect injury and that injury risk of putting one's apples in the Pronger basket (as far as the question I proposed goes)?
From what I've read, the Sedin's want to be on opposite teams too.
ReplyDeleteHowever, if you were picking for a team to make a Stanley Cup run this year and had a choice between Pronger and Gilbert on a top pairing, which player would you take?
ReplyDeleteI don't know - I don't really follow any teams but the Oilers. If I've comparing the Pronger of 2006 (i.e. the most recent incarnation I'm really familiar with) to the Gilbert of 2011, it's no contest. But the evidence I've seen (which, I reiterate, is not enough for me to make a conclusive decision one way or another) suggests that the Pronger of 2011 is a faint shadow of the Pronger of 2006.
Smarmy I love your idea for the All-Star game.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't it be better to have the Black Hawks ice girls do the choosing though?
I know when I used to do that, I pick up the sticks by the ends, so I could feel my stick and stack my team.
Then again, the Hawks Ice Girls are already a stacked team. ba dump dump!
Pronger doesn't have the tank to play all 82 games and the playoffs, but when the refs put their whistles away in the playoffs. He's still the same beast he always was. He was great for Philly last year and a big reason they got to the finals.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of the Sedins, I was looking trough some old cards last night and found a 97-98 Upper Deck Players Choice-Scandanavia and found a Henrik Sedin (pre-draft) and a KIpper card.
ReplyDeleteAnyone know if they are worth anything?
Players Choice has been a lower end release the last number of years. I wouldn't think they would be worth much but you can always see if any have been sold on ebay in the last 30 days using the advanced search and that would give you an idea.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the deal with Brule? Do you think when he's back they'll send Omark down so they can play GB in order to trade him?
ReplyDelete@WG, definitely happy to chime in on this thread again later tonight as to why TG is not the 33rd best defenseman in this league and shouldn't be paid as such. Unforunately, a little too busy at the moment.
ReplyDeleteBtw, arguing that Tom Gilbert is not overpaid because you can cite other overpaid defensman isn't the most cogent endorsement of his salary or Lowe's ability to appraise value. Just saying...
Btw, arguing that Tom Gilbert is not overpaid because you can cite other overpaid defensman isn't the most cogent endorsement of his salary or Lowe's ability to appraise value. Just saying...
ReplyDeleteNeither is dressing as Spiderman and scaling the Bundestag, which is something else nobody in this thread has done.
Gilbert gets 4 million a year, so he must be a 1st pairing defenceman. Horcoff gets 7(:P) million a year, so he must be a first line centre.
ReplyDeleteThis is the logic of the 30th place Oilers.
Now we the fans are supposed to be all worried over whether or not we lose Penner/Hemsky - a pair of okay but nowhere great forwards on a perennial bottom feeder hockey team.
And now that I'm in the mood, what about other eccentricities expected from the fans sich as:
- Oilers fans were supposed to be afraid to lose MacT a few years ago, since he "might" have left and would naturally have been snapped up instantly by any number of other NHL teams.
- No need for the draft, since Lowe could simply throw offer sheets at great players like Penner/Vanek etc.
For a city of a million people, when exactly does this 19th century frontier medicine show style of misinformation re the Oilers end?
Dogs and Bees can smell fear.
ReplyDelete"Neither is dressing as Spiderman and scaling the Bundestag, which is something else nobody in this thread has done."
ReplyDeleteSpeak for yourself!
"Dogs and Bees can smell fear."
ReplyDeleteNot on this blog. No stats to back it up.
Not to worry, Hunter, I specifically checked to see if you'd commented in the thread before I made that remark.
ReplyDeleteLee,
ReplyDeleteI just want to know what criteria you used to come to your decision that 77 isn't worth his salary.
Well reasoned arguments, even if they go against the default positions of most who post are usually treated with respect.
You may change some minds.
Hunter,
ReplyDeleteMacTavish had the Oilers in a playoff position as late as March 8th 2009.
Essentially the same team was so bad the next year there was "clarity" about having to blow it up.
Just saying.
The thing that horrified me about the Gilbert contract when he signed it and still bugs me about it now is that I thought he was getting paid full value for his best-case development scenario.
ReplyDeleteEven though I thought he'd end up being worth that kind of salary, I didn't think he had the track record yet to demand it. It just seemed to me that we should have been able to get one more value contract out of him before he built up the resume to demand bigger money.
So although I don't necessarily think Gilbert is currently overly overpaid, I've always thought the contract was a significant fail by management still do.
CF13,
ReplyDeleteIt was his last RFA contract. They paid for some UFA years at a higher rate to keep him under contract for a longer period of time.
There was no opportunity to have one more short contract and still have his exclusive rights on the next one.
When we're 6-2 down with ten minutes left. Cogs is 1 for 12 on the dot, the Stars have scored 4 PP goals, Benn and Neal have barely broken sweat and Gilbert has missed yet another pinch let led to a 4 on 1 - you guys'll need something to take your mind off the game......
ReplyDeleteJust think about Anne Hatheway as Catwoman in the new Batman film!!
They are going to have the same problem with Petry.
ReplyDeleteOk, here's how I view Tom Gilbert's contract. When assessing his market value, I care very little for the intangibles that most fans consciously or subconsciously factor in when considering an assessment of a pro athlete on their chosen side (i.e. he’s fun to watch and he seems like such a nice guy – lol). For me, he’s an asset pure and simple, so the question thus becomes is he the 33rd best Defenceman asset available in this league at this time? This logic is applied because I would hope that Lowebellini would be striving like hell to underpay on market value wherever they can. In other words, if they’re going to pay someone 33rd overall wages, I would hope that player sits in the 25 to 30 bracket or higher. Reason being, if you’re consistently paying at or above market value for your assets, it becomes very difficult to attain competitive advantage for the same reason a person makes it difficult to achieve a greater return on their house sale if you overpaid for it in the first place.
ReplyDeleteA house purchase is actually quite a nice comparable to an athlete contract because all too often intangibles weigh into the final negotiation prices none of which are particularly germane to the house’s actual market value (wife likes the kitchen, kids like the yard, etc.). If you’re patient and disciplined enough, you can buy the 33rd best house in the market for your chosen configuration and location for the 33rd highest price for that comparable. No one does this however because A) Realtors skew the comparables they show you to drive your purchase higher and thus inflate their commissions and B) The intangibles factor heavily into the purchase decision and unless you’re a savvy speculator looking for undermarket assets, no one’s buying directly ‘by the numbers.’ And let’s not forget the third reason, seller motivation, which is the biggest factor of all and helps to explain why so many GMs in various states of job precariousness are all to often willing to overpay for their assets. This is precisely why there are ample examples of shit defensemen who are overpaid. It doesn’t mean that’s sound business practise however nor should it serve as an endorsement of such practises. In other words, if you’re stupid enough to overpay for your house, don’t expect to convince those in the know by pointing to some isolated examples of those unfortunates who’ve made the same poor decision.
From a very simplistic perspective then, I would suggest management best practise dictates that Tom Gilbert’s production should be equivalent the 25th to 30th best defenseman in the league for the Oil to derive optimum value from this contract. This means Tom Gilbert should be the number 1 defenseman on any team from 25th to 30th in the standings or by another model, he could be the 2nd or 3rd best defenseman on a top team in the league provided that still landed him in the Top 30 overall. The fact of the matter is, when Ryan Whitney’s healthy, he’s not the number one defenseman on the current 29th place team.
Now I realize that’s far from definitive and to properly convince you, I assume I’ll need to plow into some advanced stats (must be mindful of the audience) that demonstrate quite conclusively that Gilbert’s production does not place him among the Top 33rD D-Men in the league. That is something I’ll happily do tonight with posted results to come. I would daresay that will be exceedingly easy and I will even go so far to predict that advanced stats won’t place him in the Top 45. If you have some stats you’d like to suggest for this (Fenwich, Relcorsi,, etc.) I’m happy to take those suggestions onboard.
If you limit your criteria to those who only face top QOC you elliminate a lot of quality defenseman that aren't used in a shutdown role. Gilbert drops from 19th to 47th in scoring if you eliminate the QOC criteria (which still isn't bad).
ReplyDeleteI also think you have to look at PP performance. Gilbert sits 96th in PP pts/60.
How good is relative corsi is at comparing players across teams? The "relative" part means relative to the rest of the players on their team, correct? So Gilbert's relative corsi looks pretty good because he's being compared relative to Strudwick & Foster.
I like Gilbert fine but think $4 million is a bit steep for what he brings.
BD - I'm not dissagreeing with you about those players - they did play well here (and I'd even suggest that CFP, Smith, Spacek, Hejda and Tarnstrom were all quite good during their time under Huddy - maybe some of the best of their carreers too). I just wasn't sure that he was really driving the bus on the development as a whole.
ReplyDeleteI guess at the moment its just hard to see if Gilbert is not longer thriving with 40 pt seasons because of the coahcing change, or because he's no longer playing the 2nd/3rd tier opponents.
Last year he was having trouble with it (both by eye and memory) for most of the year, and then had a huge up-swing at the end of the year. This year he's had a really rough go, but him and whitney have been the only experienced D-men who belong in a top 4 role. Now that he's trying to do so with rookies or strudwick... How can anyone be surprised that he's not playing as well?
Lee - When your neighbours house goes up for sale and its a decent place and some buys it and all of a sudden a few more people in the neighbourhood start selling, and there is turnover at a high rate, its really easy for your nice house in a nice neighbourhood to become a nice house in a dumpy neighbouhood. This doesn't change how nice your house is, but it can drop the value it has on the market as a result. Put that same house in another nice neighbourhood, and its counting numbers... er... market value jump back up too.
ReplyDeleteThe biggest issue with the oilers right now is that they are taking on water and rather than plugging holes, the captain has ordered them to drill more holes in search of the treasure that waits at the bottom of the sea. When the team is actually built to win, pleayers like gilbert will be needed, and at his current contract, he'd be a great bet to kill the 2nd/3rd tier like he did earlier in his carreer.
If you limit your criteria to those who only face top QOC you elliminate a lot of quality defenseman that aren't used in a shutdown role. Gilbert drops from 19th to 47th in scoring if you eliminate the QOC criteria (which still isn't bad).
ReplyDeleteYes, that's the point: Gilbert scores at a near-elite pace among shutdown defensemen. There are plenty of defensemen who score at a higher rate than he does, but few of them are also as important defensively. He's a remarkably complete defenseman.
Jordan, I'm not disputing that. My only argument here is that Gilbert is overpaid. I've long since folded the tent on making the argument on whether the org should keep him or not.
ReplyDelete@HBomb
ReplyDeleteI'll play Devil's Advocate here somewhat and say that it's hard to decipher what portion of that difference in win/loss record is due to Horcoff because there were other key guys out with injuries while he was out too (Hemsky, Whitney, etc.)
That being said, anyone who tries to argue we're somehow better-off without Horcoff in the lineup is, to put it politely, not very smart.
Well worded, across the board, HBomb
Yes, that's the point: Gilbert scores at a near-elite pace among shutdown defensemen.
ReplyDeleteFor this argument to matter or for the metric to be definitive, I would think he would need to excel as a shutdown defender as well, no?
Otherwise, it's a bit like saying 'for a boot, he's one of the best shoes in the league.'
For this argument to matter or for the metric to be definitive, I would think he would need to excel as a shutdown defender as well, no?
ReplyDeleteHe would need to qualify as a shutdown defenseman (that's what "among shutdown defensemen..." means). He does, by the metric I've provided. Feel free to provide your own metric.
I'm curious, though, about the fact that you say that you haven't looked at these advanced statistics yet. If that's true, how can you already be so confident that Gilbert's not worth $4 million? The point of statistics is to drive conclusions, not to justify them after the fact.
Gilbert is a shutdown defenseman?
ReplyDeleteGilbert is a shutdown defenseman?
ReplyDeleteThat's certainly the role he's used in, and the evidence suggests that he succeeds pretty well at it.
But go ahead and make a case that he isn't - that's what we're all about around here.
Whatever numbers you use will have to be divided by 234.
ReplyDeleteThis is Teddy Peckman's weight in pounds and Gilbert has been carrying him around for most of the season.
I'm confident Steve cos I know the reality of statistical models (i.e. they can be skewed to support any position). Much in the same way you cherry picked your original filter criteria to support your position.
ReplyDeleteNot saying I'll consciously do this as I anticipate the unvarnished data will speak for itself. What I'll focus on is metrics that speak to a player's contribution to a winning result as to me that should be the defining metric for any hockey player or team for that better. Given the Oiler's haven't won a lot of games in recent history, I think it's fairly safe to surmise that Gilbert's failings will be fairly evident in that data-set.
Of course, I could be way off base and will be man enough to admit it if that proves to be the case.
Woodguy,
ReplyDeleteThey'd still have exclusive negotiating rights during the last year of another short contract, during which time they could have negotiated an extension with bigger money if they still felt like he deserved it.
I know that could have left the door open to him walking for nothing in two years, but chances are he'd grab the money and re-up rather than risk getting hurt before July 1st (for all the glitz of TSN's free-agency show, are there really that many good players who pass up big extensions to play UFA roulette?).
I just picture Gilbert and his agent with shocked and delighted looks on their faces when that deal got agreed to, kind of like Albert Brooks' boss in the movie Defending Your Life when Brooks immediately accepted the guy's low-ball first offer during their salary negotiation.
Rather than constantly leaving guys delerious with joy after a negotiation, I'd prefer it if our management team occasionally left them satisfied but questioning whether they really got the best deal they could have or not.
I'm confident Steve cos I know the reality of statistical models (i.e. they can be skewed to support any position). Much in the same way you cherry picked your original filter criteria to support your position.
ReplyDeleteSo, as I pointed out some months ago (which you denied at the time), you don't actually believe in statistics. You don't plan on choosing criteria and then examining the results, as I did; you plan on fiddling with the statistics until you have what looks like support for your preconceived notions.
This must be why your viewpoints are so well-respected.
"Steve"
ReplyDeleteGilbert doesn't play physical enough to be a shut-down defenseman.
I think its time you started watching the games
Ireland...
ReplyDeleteAles Hemsky’s MRI did not reveal any facial/head injuries, so he is listed as day-to-day with a concussion. The Oilers winger will not partake in any physical activity for a day or two, after which he’ll have to start undergoing the mandatory baseline tests to determine if he is still experiencing any symptoms.
I'm confident Steve cos I know the reality of statistical models (i.e. they can be skewed to support any position).
ReplyDeleteThat's why I never believe any weather forecast. Nor do I ever take any kind of medicine, because I don't beleive any conclusion about drug research by any "scientist" using statistics. Nor do I believe the case for global warming. I also gamble a lot on sports based on gut instincts because there's no way bookies could be rigging the odds against me with a little math.
Gilbert doesn't play physical enough to be a shut-down defenseman
ReplyDeleteIt's true that keeping the puck out of your own net only counts if you also hit guys a lot.
Lee:
ReplyDeleteThere's a problem with expecting Gilbert to be the 33rd best defenceman because he's the 33rd highest paid. You can't directly compare UFA years to RFA years.
Is Gilbert paid more that Doughty? Yes. But by your logic, that would make every defenceman in the league except for Lidstrom overpaid. You pay more for UFA years, plain and simple.
More Ireland...
ReplyDeleteHorcoff, who injured his medial collateral ligament in a collision with the Anaheim Ducks Corey Perry, will wear a knee brace. He admitted that it could take four to six months before the knee is fully healed.
Still, it’s a calculated risk to return now. But, if he had been given a choice, he would have been back on the ice long ago.
Sonofa.....
Good post Lee. I even read it. ;)
ReplyDeleteWhen was the last time you heard the words
ReplyDelete"a thunderous bodycheck by Gilbert"?
Hmmmmm?
Not a shut-down guy. Just isn't.
When was the last time you heard the words
ReplyDelete"a thunderous bodycheck by Gilbert"?
When was the last time you saw meaningful evidence that thunderous bodychecks were necessary for shutdown defensemen?
By the way. Just as an observation, but this Gilbert talk is one of those times where based on what people are/were saying I'd think the Oilers were a really good team where only the bit players were the issue. That is, if I didn't actually watch the games.
ReplyDeleteI also gamble a lot on sports based on gut instincts because there's no way bookies could be rigging the odds against me with a little math.
ReplyDeleteThis demonstrates an intrinsic lack of knowledge on the role of odds and line setting in gambling and what bookies are actually attempting to accomplish in that regard.
this Gilbert talk is one of those times where based on what people are/were saying I'd think the Oilers were a really good team where only the bit players were the issue.
ReplyDeleteIf the Oilers would upgrade their entire bottom six forward corps, their second pairing, and their starting goalie, I think they'd be a pretty good team, provided these upgrades included people who could fill in when the top six and first pairing were injured.
Bit players? Maybe.
SS
ReplyDelete//That's certainly the role he's used in, and the evidence suggests that he succeeds pretty well at it.//
That's the role Gilbert is put in but I don't think of him as a shutdown D.
Upfront i'll state that I don't think Gilbert is overpaid or too soft.
I'm familiar with advanced stats but don't use them enough to really know how valid they are in measuring style of play. I know they can measure the general effectiveness of a player, but can advanced stats really get at if a player is a shutdown defenseman?
If corsi measures chances for and against, how do we know that when Gilbert is on the ice that chances aren't just being traded back-and-forth? or that quality chances are going one way but not the other?
I'm really just posing a question rather than a counter argument.
It's true that keeping the puck out of your own net only counts if you also hit guys a lot.
ReplyDeleteEvery big hit is a +10 to your "Error" score. I thought everyone knew that.
I know they can measure the general effectiveness of a player, but can advanced stats really get at if a player is a shutdown defenseman?
ReplyDeleteWell, I'm saying he's a shutdown defenseman based on results and the role he's played in. If you think it's a matter of style, then I agree that the advanced stats maybe don't tell that story.
But if the results are there, who cares about the style?
John Deer:
ReplyDeleteI guess that means that Lidstrom isn't a shutdown defender either.
Saying a guy isn't a "shutdown D" because he doesn't play physical is, in two words, false logic.
When was the last time you saw meaningful evidence that thunderous bodychecks were necessary for shutdown defensemen?
ReplyDeletePeckham is a -6 and Gilbert is a -14 on the season.
Peckham lays more thunderous bodychecks than Gilbert.
Thunderous bodychecks and plus minus are the only determinants of 'shutdown defensemen.'
Therefore, Peckham is a better shutdown defenseman than Gilbert.
;P
Lee said...
ReplyDeleteNot saying I'll consciously do this as I anticipate the unvarnished data will speak for itself. What I'll focus on is metrics that speak to a player's contribution to a winning result as to me that should be the defining metric for any hockey player or team for that better. Given the Oiler's haven't won a lot of games in recent history, I think it's fairly safe to surmise that Gilbert's failings will be fairly evident in that data-set.
Of course, I could be way off base and will be man enough to admit it if that proves to be the case.
So SS said...
So, as I pointed out some months ago (which you denied at the time), you don't actually believe in statistics. You don't plan on choosing criteria and then examining the results, as I did; you plan on fiddling with the statistics until you have what looks like support for your preconceived notions.
This must be why your viewpoints are so well-respected.
Yeah, that's what my post said. lol
And your inability to see beyond your own preconceived notions of who people are must be why you're so well-respected.
I love that I'm challenged to provide stats to support an argument and when I offer to do so, the validity of my stats are called into question before I even have an opportunity to do so. Some people's kids...
Gilbert's bad offense and -14 play doesn't mean he's a bad defenseman, but he certainly isn't elite.
ReplyDeleteI don't know Lee. Respect on a blog comments section means a lot in some folks eyes.
ReplyDeleteBlogger just ate the longest post I ever wrote.
ReplyDeleteIn short, Lee is wrong about evaluating player contracts in general, etc., etc.
I love YouTube;
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DufE-dcQ70k
Think Lowe used to practice with his wife before meeting with agents?
Kris/Steve, please refer to your earlier commentary about making bold unsubstantiated assertions without the supportive data.
ReplyDeleteGiven that you're the same person, I shouldn't have to remind you about this stuff ;)
Given that you're the same person, I shouldn't have to remind you about this stuff ;)
ReplyDeleteNo, you're confusing Kris with Kinger. I think. Sometimes I lose track of whom I'm the same person as.
@Schitzo, that's a good point. That makes the data gathering a little more complex. Ok, leave this with me. I'm up for the challenge just can't promise the definitive stuff tonight.
ReplyDeleteSometimes I lose track of whom I'm the same person as.
ReplyDeleteNot surprising.
No, wait, Kinger's not the same person as I am, he's my homosexual lover - I remember now.
ReplyDeleteAs I said, you make it hard to keep track.
Gilbert could be making $15 million a season, this teams is nowhere near the cap.
ReplyDeleteHis salary is moot, moop.
Further, Tambo doesn't operate in some theoretical world where he has access to the whole talent pool and can assess salary vs. production in some straight formula.
He can't just say, "sorry Tom, Lee here has done a comparison using some little used stats and you are not worth $4 million per." Tom then walks over to Mr Sather and gets $4 million and Tambo has to sign a lesser guy - reducing the talent on his team.
Its really why most of us have jobs.
Sometimes you need to pay a bit more to keep/ acquire one of the few options available.
Anyway, I think Gilbert and his contract are swell.
Really Ducey. I think enough dudes have piled on Lee.
ReplyDeleteI am Steve-icus.
ReplyDeleteNo I am Steve-icus.
Plus I suppose Gilbert making a huge salary would be moot except for any chances the team had of competing going forward.
ReplyDeleteNo, wait, Kinger's not the same person as I am, he's my homosexual lover - I remember now.
ReplyDeleteThat a boy. Just a little extra concentration makes all the difference.
Ashley: When the big body has the most points it isn't a ''Reach pick''. When it doesn't (Niederreitter) it is. Same for Abney, that pick was absolute garbage.
ReplyDeleteI think we need to first of all state what we are trying to solve for here...
ReplyDeleteAre we solving for the issue of whether or not Gilbert is overpaid?
or
Are we solving for the issue of whether or not Gilbert is a top pairing defenseman in this league?
or
Are we solving for the issue of whether or not Gilbert is a top 30 defenseman in this league?
Which the heck is it, because these seem to be bandied about interchangeably, which they are not.
And if it is one ofthe last two... are we going with offensive D specialist, defensive D specialist or all round?
Are we solving for the issue of whether or not Gilbert is overpaid?
ReplyDeleteThat's my understanding, and I've proceeded accordingly.
Gilbert could be making $15 million a season, this teams is nowhere near the cap.
ReplyDeleteHis salary is moot, moop.
Was it less moot at the start of last season when we were dreadful AND bang up against the cap ceiling?
Further, Tambo doesn't operate in some theoretical world where he has access to the whole talent pool and can assess salary vs. production in some straight formula.
He can't just say, "sorry Tom, Lee here has done a comparison using some little used stats and you are not worth $4 million per." Tom then walks over to Mr Sather and gets $4 million and Tambo has to sign a lesser guy - reducing the talent on his team.
What does Tambellini have to do with Gilbert's current contract. Lowe was the mad hatter behind that one?
Its really why most of us have jobs.
I'll take your word for it. I prefer to work in a climate where my performance has a direct impact on my compensation.
Sometimes you need to pay a bit more to keep/ acquire one of the few options available.
Yep, that's the Oiler mantra alright. Stick 5 years out of the playoffs and counting on as a tagline and you've got yourself a season ticket drive campaign in the making.
Anyway, I think Gilbert and his contract are swell.
Neato
Tom Gilbert D45 5 9 14 -14
ReplyDeleteThat's not really appealing numbers at 4M$. He's not a bad defender, just that 4M$ looks a bit big, considering him as an ''offensive d-man''.
Something in the 3M$ neighborhood would be a good contract to my eyes.
Then again you could say he plays on a porridge team, but so does Whitney, I expected him to step up after the injury but that hasn't happened yet.
I'll take your word for it. I prefer to work in a climate where my performance has a direct impact on my compensation.
ReplyDeleteWhoa I'd to would like to work in a place like that. Never seen it but it's a nice dream.
Tom Gilbert D45 5 9 14 -14
ReplyDeleteYou're usually one to consider advanced stats. Why not here?
Saying a guy isn't a "shutdown D" because he doesn't play physical is, in two words, false logic.
ReplyDeleteGilbert isn't a shutdown D in large part because he takes way too many chances in the offensive zone to be low event.
Good player but he's consistently sporting a large amount of GAA per hour compared to his teammates over the years.
I don't have any issue with Gilbert's contract, but the Oilers need a real shutdown defender.
Whoa I'd to would like to work in a place like that. Never seen it but it's a nice dream.
ReplyDeletePlanting trees was like that. That's the only job I can think of where it was the case, though. And here in New Brunswick, it's apparently not even the case for tree-planters.
Gilbert would work well with a real good shutdown guy I think, or on the second pairing.
ReplyDeleteSS yeah it seems like those sorts of jobs come with back breaking labour. Any office I've worked in is all about ass kissing and politics. Oh well.
ReplyDeletePlus I suppose Gilbert making a huge salary would be moot except for any chances the team had of competing going forward.
ReplyDeleteLet me know when that extra $500K Gilbert makes becomes a problem
Part of me wishes the Oilers could get some more first rounders.
ReplyDeleteSince the team is still following the Chicago Model. (I think?)
We could draft Larsson and Siemens and there is our Keith and Seabrook.
Steve: I'm showing off as to why people would actually consider it a bad contract.
ReplyDeleteHonestly if you don't use the underlying numbers, it's pretty tough to look at him good. People who use that are a slim minority.
I should add, too, that planting trees was only like that when you were actually planting trees. When you were sitting on a bus while the powers that be tried to figure out why they'd just dragged you along a range road highway for forty-five minutes to a block that had already been planted, merit had very little to do with it: nobody was making anything.
ReplyDeleteSB: Well... wasn't Keith a 2nd rounder and theyr top pick (Barker) flopped?
ReplyDeleteThat would be Marincin :P
I'm fine with Gilbert's contract, but am not surprised that the thread has become stubborn.
ReplyDeleteWe're pretty much the confusion of tongues here at Lowetide these days.
Oh well.
Hey LT, Sportsnet has raided TSN!
ReplyDeleteSo Rogers just announced that they've signed Damien Cox to a deal that will see him on Sportsnet Radio and TV. So much for earlier report.
Haha...Who's in charge over there?
Honestly if you don't use the underlying numbers, it's pretty tough to look at him good.
ReplyDeleteI'd agree with that. But if we accept that underlying numbers show a more complete picture than counting stats, I don't see how it's really relevant from the perspective of evaluating whether Gilbert's overpaid (as distinct from evaluating whether people are likely to think he's overpaid).
Sportnet doesn't do Leaf games, so why do they sign Cox, who is totally clueless about anything outside of the 416, and wrong about most things inside the 416.
ReplyDeleteI'm watching a caps power play right now and my goodness it's night and day from the Oilers. They make three passes in the time the Oilers make one and that includes Hemmer.
ReplyDelete@godot Any question involving the competency of Sportsnet can be answered by merely saying... Sportsnet.
ReplyDeleteCF13,
ReplyDeleteWell if they did a 2 year deal he would have been UFA at the end of it.
If the did a 1 year deal he would have had arbitration rights, so effectively a UFA at the end of it.
The situation demanded a long term contract and not to roll the dice hoping he would sign. (you say he would have, but we cannot know that definitively)
All teams tie up (or try to) their core players well past their last RFA year, its just good business.
You get to flatten the first part of the UFA years by averaging it with some RFA years.
Even if he resigns here as a UFA, because 2 cheap years are gone its not a given you can get him at 4.0MM/yr. Remember at the time the cap was going up by huge jumps and guys like Sather and Lowe seemed to budget 15% jumps in the cap every year until the Kingdom came.
So I disagree with your assertion that they could have got one more cheap contract then resigned him for less than they did (cap wise)
Gilbert's contract has a funny structure though.
08/09 3.5 Ends season 26 years old
09/10 3.5 Ends season 27 years old
10/11 5.5 Ends season 28 years old
11/12 5.0 Ends season 29 years old
12/13 3.5 Ends season 30 years old
13/14 3.0 Ends season 31 years old
This contract can still have 3 years as a value contract, even if it hasn't been one.
SS: Well you know, It's been 2 seasons it's been happening. I don't think underlying numbers are an exact science. And I don't know at which point you could say that doesn't work for ''X'' or ''Y'' guy.
ReplyDeleteAnyway. The stats were only from an offensive side point of view. If you look at Gilbert, yes he's pushing the puck the right way but that doesn't seem to generate results. (Or at least that implicates him). He doesn't have a super low SH% on ice. If you look at a guy pretty comparable on the underlying numbers (Qual COmp and Qual Team) aside is Kurtis Foster, and he's not getting paid all that much.
Anyway what's really kicking Gilbert in the balls defensively is his On ice Save% of ,878.
Whoa fpv it's almost as if you're playing the team's MVP THE BULIN WALL for Gilbert's less then stellar boxcars.
ReplyDeleteI'll have none of it.
blaming not playing.
ReplyDelete*The Boozin' wall.
ReplyDeleteSS yeah it seems like those sorts of jobs come with back breaking labour. Any office I've worked in is all about ass kissing and politics. Oh well.
ReplyDeleteYou guys do realize that senior execs have a large portion of their compensation determined by bonus packages, correct? It's not unusual to make the bulk of your pay from performance incentives if your job has that kind of impact on the bottom line.
Steve...
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me Lee is going to argue Gilbert is not a top 30 Dman in the league. which I don't think anyone is arguing.
Steve said...
But if we accept that underlying numbers show a more complete picture than counting stats, I don't see how it's really relevant from the perspective of evaluating whether Gilbert's overpaid (as distinct from evaluating whether people are likely to think he's overpaid).
I think this statement is wrong. I don't think either kind of stats should be used in isolation from the other to have a complete picture.
I think this statement is wrong. I don't think either kind of stats should be used in isolation from the other to have a complete picture.
ReplyDeleteNot in isolation from - the advanced stats include the counting numbers, except they provide additional context (things like scoring per sixty minutes, for example).
Lee...
ReplyDeleteMost senior execs get their bonuses on stock options or fee churn (you do realize) -- neither of which is an accurate reflection of overall performance, and actually biases their performance, IMO. Of course we would have to agree on what we mean by job performance.
You guys do realize that senior execs have a large portion of their compensation determined by bonus packages, correct? It's not unusual to make the bulk of your pay from performance incentives if your job has that kind of impact on the bottom line.
ReplyDeleteOh senior execs. Yes I realize those guys gives themselves giant bonuses regardless of their actual performance helped the company or not. Good work if you can get it.
I don't watch much TSN but I watch even less SN so I'm glad those guys have signed Cox; it means I have less of a chance to see him.
ReplyDeleteSo you're more of a smarmy middle manager, I take it?
ReplyDelete@smarmy
ReplyDeleteMost other team's power plays are night and day compared to the Oilers. Two or three quick passes followed by finding an open lane and a quick shot on net--usually from the point with a screen. If the shot doesn't make it or they can't bang in the rebound, the process is repeated.
The Oilers prefer the pass, stick handle, hold, pass, repeat while looking for an invisible passing lane backdoor through the slot. Sometimes the Oil like to execute the pass to the dmen for a hold, stand still, and then fire at a shin pad play.
ReplyDeleteMost senior execs get their bonuses on stock options or fee churn (you do realize) -- neither of which is an accurate reflection of overall performance, and actually biases their performance, IMO. Of course we would have to agree on what we mean by job performance.
I have never worked for a public company.
I have only worked for private companies and a big part of my pay was profit sharing.
I own 50% of a small company now and most of my pay is via dividends.
My senior staff make 40%+ of their pay on profit sharing.
Very common in private businesses.
SS: Then again are underlying numbers really relevant in a contract evaluation?
ReplyDeleteIf you take it as relative to the market, then I don't think the market actually uses the underlying numbers.
There's guys bound to be overpaid, but there's always going to be lesser overpays and bigger overpays, same goes for the underpays.
Steve I'm smarmy because I'm not even that. Just a grunt.
ReplyDeleteSteve, might have just been your wording that got me then as it was a comparative statement.
ReplyDeleteIf you take it as relative to the market, then I don't think the market actually uses the underlying numbers.
ReplyDeleteI think you're probably right that the market doesn't use underlying numbers. But all that really means is that if one participant in the market uses underlying numbers, it makes it easier for him to beat the market, even if all the contract he signs are market value (that is, if the market will give each of four players a $4 million contract, the player who uses underlying numbers is going to be more able to recognize which of those players it might be worth offering $4.1 million, and which are likely to be overpays - relative to performance, not relative to the market - even at $4 million).
Steve: Well if 29 guys still don't use them, I guess it stays the standard.
ReplyDeleteSo I guess the question becomes: What was the market ready to pay for Tom Gilbert ($ wise) and did the Oilers throw something way over that?
There's always going to be guys you have to under/over pay for theyr worth, but you can't start overpaying guys you can underpay, because that can cause trouble.
WG
ReplyDeleteDo you have senior execs?
I'm thinking of companies that have tiers of VPs most of which are public, I would guess, but certainly not all, and yes definitely profit sharing has to be included, but again in the bigger companies that would be 'fee churn'. Still you make a good point, I was being too exclusive in my statement too... I'm spending too much time in the cess pit of the financial world.
Didn't take Lemaire too long to instill his brand of hockey in NJ.
ReplyDeleteHalf way through the 2nd and PIT has 11 shots.
Remarkable even without Crosby.
Well that was a long read through the comments! As far as Gilbert goes I don't have a lot to be backed my advanced stats but a few things stick out about him for me.
ReplyDelete1) As someone earlier said, my biggest problem with his contract is that it was given to him with the hope he would reach its value. However, as someone else said, he was an RFA for the last time, which weighs heavily into that.
2) Regardless of his true market value, the Oilers need him. With Whitney out(and to a lesser extent when hes not) he is relied on to eat up large amounts of minutes and play in every situation. Whether or not he would be in a similar situation on another team is anybody's guess, but the fact of the matter is he is here and we need him (quite desperately)
As it stands I realize a lot of people take no value out of observations with little to no backing info, but I'm just always a bit bothered when people complain about contracts of players like Gilbert. His contract might not be one of value but its not crippling either. As I see it, he could be a top pairing (#2) dman on a decent chunk of NHL teams. I don't know what everyone would consider a good contract for a #2 dman, but I would like to know what you think he would be able to fetch if he were a UFA this offseason.
On a different note, does anyone know what the projected lines for today are?
spOILer,
ReplyDeleteNope, too small for levels of management.
I was just giving a very common example of people employed by private companies getting a significant portion of their salary via profit sharing.
Certainly the large public company is the first to come to mind when discussing senior exec salary structure (re:stock option), but I think more people are employed by private companies than public ones in Canada, where profit sharing and noit stock options fuel bonuses.
I guess that means that Lidstrom isn't a shutdown defender either.
ReplyDeleteHBomb
I wouldn't take a guy who makes smart-ass remarks and uses
a tractor
for an avatar too seriously.
wow...i just read 156 posts; time i'll never get back, ever.
ReplyDeletelesson learned: not many people here took and passed Logic 103
clap clap
Nice to see Zorg get the car out of the garage for a couple games in a row!
ReplyDeleteGeez i love omarks game.
ReplyDeleteDoes Foster EVER hit the net? Boys are buzzing early
ReplyDeleteIf Gilbert is considered overrated than isnt Whitney as well? yes he has a very good year this year when it comes to the usual stats but when it comes to advanced stats doesnt gilbert stand ahead of him in everything? The thing with Whitney is he was having a career season. I think he is usually a 35-45 point type defenseman not a 60 point guy like the pace he was at this year. Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteexcuse me, meant overpaid not overrated
ReplyDeleteNow I'm not sure Horcoff could have caught Benn but did it not look like he wasn't even trying? Strange from him.
ReplyDeleteJfry
ReplyDeleteYou only have yourself to blame for reading the thread, lol.
Ryan Jones is going to make Toonces look so bad this summer.
ReplyDelete@spoiler
ReplyDelete9 times out of 10, it's worth it. ;)
jones!
Maybe I missed something, but why is Khabibulin the one in net? As well as the Oilers were playing, he simply has to to step up and make the save, but he doesn't.
ReplyDeleteJones? Hah; how's that for PKing! Its been trending the right direction for a bit now.
would anyone happen to know a link to this game?
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to be an oil fan in montreal.
Looked kinda like 89 held off on that pass to 91 up the middle to prevent him from getting drew doughtied. Super speed though from mps.
ReplyDeleteLevi: I hope that's why - otherwise he wasted a chance to catch MP with speed.
ReplyDeleteso, does jones get a glennx type contract? 1.2 for a couple/three years?
ReplyDeletehttp://veetle.com/index.php/channel/view#4cb79d6dbb0af
ReplyDeleteI will say one thing about Jones... it is hard to hate his enthusiasm for the game, but I don't think I can give him a 3 year contract at any money over a mill. How about a 1 yr deal?
ReplyDeleteLT
ReplyDeleteJones being traded at the deadline has been the talk on ON for the last couple of threads. What's your take?
That goal by Benn was Foster's fault not Horcoff's. It seems to me Foster doesn't have a very high hockey IQ. IMO.
I personally like Glencross better then Jones. Glencross has more of an edge to his game.
ReplyDeleteIt would be nice to have them both.
WG...
ReplyDeleteLee said senior execs so I took it that way--as a company big enough to have them and how they normally get reimbursed. But certainly yes, small biz employs far more people as a whole and I wish they had the same political clout. The way to beat power is to decentralize it.
Does Rogers pay their on camera employees or are these guys volunteers?
ReplyDeleteYea the Benn goal was definitely Fosters fault. No good reason to try to take the man when you're the only one back against 2 attackers. Also, I read somewhere (Journal?) today that Horc said he wouldn't be 100% for another couple of months, but good enough to play. I don't think he'll be able to go at full speed, for a little while anyway
ReplyDeleteCeryse....
ReplyDeleteI believe Dubnyk is still suffering a bit from the flu.
Jones is mediocre. A little luck and people start talking about three year deals. It's ridiculous.
ReplyDelete...which means Tambo will extend him before the year is out.
spoiler: Bleh, figures. At least it isn't something more serious and the team letting him play *cough*.
ReplyDeleteDecent period, at least, by the Oilers. Breakdown on the goal against, but in this season all I really care about is enjoyable hockey and that the rookies don't get career ending injuries.
ribeiro with a great imitation of a point guard there. nice play.
ReplyDeletechorney with a bad case of the turkey brain. I knew he should have had Boston Pizza instead...
ReplyDelete@riversq
ReplyDeletei'm not suggesting we re-sign him...i think i've been pretty clear in the past about the ability to get his type of player via waivers. i also believe that you don't pay for career years (brule).
that said, i do think it's fair to try and determine what he might get signed for by a team. and compare that to the value he has at the trade deadline.
Pajaarvi, is looking very good lately.
ReplyDeleteI know you know.
Can we stop using Foster and Chorney as partners.
ReplyDeleteBenn knocked Cogs stick out of his hands twice on that pk? Is that not a penalty?
For those of you playing along at home, that's Tom Gilbert being a shutdown defenseman. It is truly an impressive sight.
ReplyDeleteAnyone know a reliable stat source for giveaways directly leading to scoring chances against?
sugar tits who?
ReplyDeleteYea Lee, I record them personally. Gilbert has the lowest number on the team.
ReplyDeleteAn astute comment by Quinn.
ReplyDeleteOmark's balance is so good that he rarely falls down and thus doesn't get the calls. Plus he's a rookie.
That was some top-notch coverage on the PK. Was that 77?
ReplyDeleteBulin always guzzles water like he has a bad case of the hair of the dog. No wonder he has hydration issues.
ReplyDeleteSo Rogers just announced that they've signed Damien Cox to a deal that will see him on Sportsnet Radio and TV. So much for earlier report.
Sportsnet raiding TSN for on-air talent and they come up with Damien Cox.
This sounds like the television equivalent of "Oilers acquire Colin Fraser".
Cool Kinger, what's his rank in the NHL? I'm guessing given the source he's number 1 there too?
ReplyDeleteJones is all over the ice. Pump and dump him before he gets injured.
ReplyDeleteHe's gotta be worth at least a 3rd rounder?
Petry! What a shot
ReplyDeleteCongrats to Petry - nice shot.
ReplyDeleteGreat shot by Petry, but better downlow work by Smid, imo. Really liked him as of late in the offensive zone.
ReplyDeleteMarc Joanette should not be allowed to officiate Oiler games.
ReplyDeleteWhat a fucking joke of an official.
Guess he didn't notice the crosscheck there with 30 seconds left.