Anton Lander (in photo) is having a fine season with Timra and would have to be considered a strong candidate for the NHL team in 2010-11. The Oilers inertia in addressing center may well come from the fact that the team already boasts quality youngsters in Gagner, Cogliano and Lander. Hall and Eberle have also played center during their careers.
Below are the current NHL equivalencies run through Desjardins. I've combined leagues but indicated the league each player is currently playing.
As always, in 82 game notation and these are their boxcars not the pure math number.
FORWARDS
- Ryan Martindale (OHL) 15-20-35
- Curtis Hamilton (WHL) 10-22-32
- Anton Lander (SEL) 14-17-31
- Tyler Pitlick (WHL) 11-17-28
- Teemu Hartikainen (AHL) 10-14-24
- Toni Rajala (SML) 10-14-24
- Colin McDonald (AHL) 18-5-23
- Ryan O'Marra (AHL) 2-20-22
- Kellen Jones (NCAA) 7-13-20
- Drew Czerwonka (WHL) 6-12-18
- Milan Kytnar (AHL) 5-7-12
- Philippe Cornet (AHL) 4-8-12
- Kristians Pelss (WHL) 4-7-11
- Chris Vande Velde (AHL) 5-4-9
- Cameron Abney (WHL) 3-4-7
I think the top 6 forwards on this list would have to be considered serious NHL prospects. Beyond that, the Oilers really believe in O'Marra and Czerwonka is coming along nicely. Beyond #10 I'd suggest we are looking at certified long shots at this point. It is especially disappointing to see Vande Velde there. I understand he's playing on the checking line but a prospect still needs to deliver something offensively.
DEFENSE
- Martin Marincin (WHL) 6-19-25
- Jeremie Blain (QMJHL) 1-22-23
- Shawn Belle (AHL) 3-16-19
- Brandon Davidson (WHL) 3-13-16
- Taylor Chorney (AHL) 3-11-14
- Alex Plante (AHL) 1-7-8
- Kyle Bigos (NCAA) 0-7-7
- Johan Motin (AHL) 1-3-4
- Jordan Bendfeld (AHL) 0-0-0
- Troy Hesketh (USHL) 0-0-0
Marincin and Blain are solid offensive prospects and Belle is certainly an option. Davidson is coming along nicely and Chorney rounds out the puck movers. Offense isn't as important for defenders, so a guy like Plante is still a solid prospect and one can hold out hope for Motin too.
Based on these numbers, I suspect the Edmonton Oilers are going to have a long look at some of these kids in training camp. Martindale, Hamilton, Pitlick, Marincin for sure, and I suspect both Lander and Hartikainen have excellent chances to make the big club.
Bad news for Jacques, Fraser, Stortini and others. One might think the Oilers will slow down the fast tracking of prospects but history tells us they call up the prospects they value quickly and send out the also-rans, never-were's and wannabe's. I think other NHL general managers are going to grab some good prospects off the Oilers tree over the next few years, but part of that comes from such a strong prospect group.
Steve Tambellini can help himself by dealing guys they no longer value for picks. Tambellini did it with Kyle Brodziak, didn't get a thing for Marc Pouliot.
If I'm ST, this is the time to shop Ladislav Smid. Help is on the way.
LT with all the quality prospects and all the trade talk lately I would love to know which quality players or picks you would consider moving to fill the holes in the current line up.
ReplyDeleteMDF: I think the Oilers should build around the following players:
ReplyDeleteG: Dubnyk
D: Gilbert, Whitney, Peckham, Petry, Plante, Marincin
C: Horcoff, Gagner, Lander
L: Hall, Penner, MPS
R: Hemsky, Eberle
They need a solid goalie, at least two blue and a veteran center. Plus some checking on the wings.
I'd audition all of the kids mentioned in the original post while adding those things.
None of the prospects would be untouchable, but Marincin is close.
I'd consider trading Omark, Cogliano, Jones, Jacques, Stortini, Fraser, Smid, Foster, Vandermeer.
With all the troubles the Oil have had getting bottom 6 forwards wouldn't keeping Jones be the smart thing to do?
ReplyDeleteI cant see any of the parts you suggest moving bringing in a quality.player though. Do you think they have value?
One might think the Oilers will slow down the fast tracking of prospects but history tells us they call up the prospects they value quickly and send out the also-rans, never-were's and wannabe's.
ReplyDeleteThey might call up their favourites quickly, but I don't think they broom out the chaff with any sort of expediency. Oiler prospects pretty much have a job until they're 24-25 don't they?
Heh, called VDV was a joker.
ReplyDeleteFun how they're all tracking well.
Well outside of the disaster picks (Abney and Hesketh)
A lot of internal competition coming up!
"With all the troubles the Oil have had getting bottom 6 forwards wouldn't keeping Jones be the smart thing to do?"
ReplyDeleteThose who forget the past are doomed to relive it.
Gilbert Brule was a player who was riding a high shooting % swing last year. How's that 2 year deal looking now? Jones might have a bit of value at the deadline. I would like to think ST will capitilize on this, but more than likely he will over pay him for to many years. I have zero confidence that the Oilers management will use their assets wisely.
I just hope Lander doesn't have the same problems VV did making the adjustment to the NHL
ReplyDelete@ Matt - Same thing about repeating history could be said about Glencross. This team would look much better with him on the 3rd 4th line.
ReplyDeleteIt just seems as soon as a player has a good season everyone wants to trade him. Brule you could see the writing on the wall as the guy was pretty inconsistant his entire career but from what I know Jones has shown consistancy
Maybe I'm crazy.... but it seems like I'm the only one who feels that Omark is a keeper. Next to Penner, there is nobody better on the team at controlling the puck along the boards and behind the net. And thats no small feet for a little guy.
ReplyDeleteOiler prospects pretty much have a job until they're 24-25 don't they?
ReplyDeleteSomewhere, Cody Wild is crying. Alone in a hotel room, bottle of cheap scotch in his hand.
I agree. Omark is a keeper. Him Gagner and Pajaarvi are playing very well together.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers are in last place with the PP and PK the same. Granted the core should remain individually, unless an upgrade is available. The crying need is D zone FO and tough checking wingers. This makes Lander and Hamilton crucial to the team going forward. The PP needs a total evaluation both coaching and execution. The amazing thing is how much Horcoff, (who is not an offensive force) shows up the other centers. All he's doing is playing his position, a simple thing compared to the effect it produces.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRnE4lnqRXc&feature=player_embedded
ReplyDeleteFucking awesome.
--
Keep Omark until you have to pay him.
Too much turnover in one year is a bad thing, and a lot will depend on who the Oilers take in the lottery, because if history shows us anything he will absolutely be in the NHL.
If I had to guess, I'll say we take a forward, and the top 9 is pretty easy to figure out:
4, 10, 14, 23, 27, 83, 89, 91 and the kid.
Go with 85-Lander-UFA with some nastiness who can PK on the 4th line.
6-??
49-77
58-??
??
Fill in those question marks with guys who aren't currently part of the organization, and would actually belong on the pairing they would end up on.
Done and done.
If you were rebuilding a team such as the Oilers who at this time have four top wingers - Penner, Hemsky, Hall and Paajarvi. One center Horcoff who's not going anywhere. These are better than the others. Now some may develop and so on. The third and fourth lines have different priorities and need different skills and the sooner they are on the team the sooner the upside. The four top D are serviceable. Depending on circumstance Omark and maybe even Eberle are luxuries unless Penner and Hemsky have to be traded.
ReplyDeleteThe great weakness is down the middle so drafting a Landeskog or Larson would be nice but wouldn't address the problem. I prefer Strome over the other two centers for the higher ceiling.
Gagner strikes me as high floor low ceiling, he doesn't have the talent. I don't see what skill he will develop. He's continously misreads plays at both ends of the ice. Keep in mind that he got top end coaching from an early age until Junior, that most other kids didnt'.
I'd have zero problem with Gagner being on the trade block along with Hemsky and Smid if that has enough value to bring a decent return. Eberle can move up in responsibility then hopefully we get a crack at Landeskog to top up the right side. He's the only player of the main four being bantied around I'm interested in. Somewhere along the line the top 6 has to actually resemble one.
ReplyDeletePenner/Hall/Eberle
MP/Horcoff/Landeskog
Won't be looking at the making the playoffs next year either so set your sights on the 2012/2013 season.
The above mentioned players might have enough value to garner a decent 3rd line centre who can faceoff in the 55% are and maybe PK, or a top 4 dman.
The more I look back at a couple of Hawk moves last offseason the more I want to hope ST at least took a shot at some. While not key role players I'd far rather have Burish and Eager on this team than Frasier and Stortini.
I can't recall seeing anybody think that Omark wasn't a keeper. Pretty good player. He seems to be pigeonholed into the classic role on the 2nd line for the fans that's really the 3rd or 4th line for the coach, but you have to wonder if he might grow to be better than that.
ReplyDeleteThat 23-89-91 line has not been very good though. I'll stick to that. In fact, I think they've been drowning in the past couple of weeks.
Gotta keep in mind Omark's 22.
ReplyDeleteIf all the kids were keeping head above water than it wouldn't be normal.
I'm intrigued by Belle as a crash banger to go with two skilled forwards. He has the size and the speed. If Hall can play center,then he and Eberle need protection on their line and Penner is too much a pussycat. Teams are already taking liberties with the three kids. Unless the issue is addressed the kids will get hurt. Eberle got hurt in exactly that manner and Hemsky has been a target since forever.
ReplyDeleteP
ReplyDeleteThe easiest way to preven Hemsky's concussions is you make the headhunters pay. You go for Hemsky, we go for your top player. Take a number. You have to protect your stars. We get a crosscheck, yours is coming in the mail.
ReplyDeleteThe worst sin by the Oilers is their stars don't get any protection. Goons are of no value, tough wingers are what's needed, payback now. Last game three shots to the head, no response. Should have been chicklet time or at least a butt end to the short ribs.
The Kuopio Krusher is having a nice season compared to a few of his high profile AHL peers:
ReplyDeleteNazem Kadri 22-8-15-23 (1.05PPG)
Teemu Hartikainen 48-13-18-31 (0.65)
Cody Hodgson 26-10-6-16 (0.62)
Joe Colborne 45-11-13-24 (0.53)
Kyle Beach 42-9-13-22 (0.52)
Jordan Schroeder 28-6-8-14 (0.50)
Riley Nash 47-10-12-22 (0.47)
Greg Nemisz 47-11-9-20 (0.43)
Logan MacMillan 39-3-4-7 (0.18)
Who ever suggested Hemsky for Colborne was way off the planet.
LT I seem to have a problem with your evaluation of Chris Vande Velde . What I understand is that he is being groomed to be the Oilers shut down Center-man, and what I've read and heard he is doing a pretty good job of it. He not down there to score goals but to shut down the opposing teams top line down. His Face-off percentage is around 70%, he could be a lot tougher but most nights he shuts them down. His first two games were bad and he was -7 but after that he has held his own, then the Oilers had problems and the call up effected the play of the Barons and his plus minus drop to -15. Your evaluations seem to center more on the offense part of the game and not the grit, toughness, and defense. But you cannot get how and defensive a player is just by reading the stats. Also you cannot compare Lander and VV, because Lander is playing in a much weaker league (which is about to fall apart and is full of players that couldn't make the NHL or AHL). Lander is a great Leader, has good defensive skills and can handle the puck, but he still needs to improve is skating if he's going to make the NHL.
ReplyDeleteYou think any of these guys can squeeze Jacques out of his spot in the lineup? He's got a one-goal scoring streak going into the break!
ReplyDeleteGlencross lmao... Flames fans can't stand him anymore.
ReplyDeleteWhile I'm on topic, Kings fans don't think all that much of Stoll/Greene/Smyth either.
Now if we were talking about Chris Pronger returning...
@Hunter1909: where did you hear that? I thought Stoll and Smyth had been playing well, and Greene is, well, Greene!
ReplyDeleteFor that matter, I'll always love Greene for this interview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQU85hfbbg4.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteMatt Greene will always hold a special place in Oilers history. As the story goes, it was he, not Shayne Corson 2.0 (aka Ethan Moreau) who was the one that originally saw to it that "Private Eyes" by Hall and Oates was on the post-game mix CD.
ReplyDeleteThis interview is, in fact, my ONLY positive memory of #18 post-lockout. Well, other than the day I found out Howson actually plucked him off waivers. Either way, it was all because of Greene.
And beyond that, he's exactly the type of guy that would help fill out our 2nd pairing on the blue-line. Not that I'm saying I wouldn't make the original Visnovsky deal over-and-over again, however.
@EasyOil: Stoll and Greene are generally seen by Kings fans as 3rd line, 2nd/3rd pairing guys. They've got Kopitar/Doughty etc to get excited over.
ReplyDeleteKings fans are a weird bunch. When push comes to shove they know they had a prime Gretzky, and still never managed to win anything.
If I'm ST, this is the time to shop Ladislav Smid
ReplyDeleteWhy are we shipping Smid? If we can all agree that one of the things the team is lacking is defensive depth, why are we sending away a defensemen?
If we assume that he never improves from where he is right now, he will be a 3rd pairing guy who doesn't produce enough points to ever get paid well. He will be in the league for another 15 years for about 1.5M per season. He is also in the age cluster of our youngsters. There is also the chance that he hasn't hit his ceiling yet. He could end up being our Robyn Regher.
Bottom line is that Smid doesn't have much value in trade and he is a perfect fit at the bottom of the order in style, age and cap hit. He also still has some upside potential at this point. Keep him. It's the top 4 that needs help.
Archie: He has to score more if he's going to be a legit prospect. He's not 20.
ReplyDeleteso with all of this young potential, and no place to play most, doesn't it make sense to move some roster players? I realize that we need some vets, but if the goal is to be better next year, but truly competitive in 2012/13, then move some older players for guys that fill needs. a more offensive centre would make sense. I still say that making a move for Brayden Schenn would make a lot of sense, especially since he is solid in both ends and has 1st line talent (ala Toews). So what do we have to give up for him, therefore allowing us to draft a top end dman to round out our needs.
ReplyDelete(next year lineup)
g: Dubnyk, Bulin
d: Whitney, Larsson, Gilbert, Peckham, Petry, Plante
C: Schenn, Horcoff, Gagner, Lander
L: Hall, Penner, MPS, Hamilton
R: Hemsky, Eberle, Omark, Reddox (he's earned it)
Allowing us to move/dump Fraser, Jones (cash in high), Cogs, Brule, Foster, Smid, Vandermeer. Most have little value, so some picks may work. I doubt it happens, but as much as we like Hemsky would it make sense to move him for Schenn +? It was compared on Stauffer's show to the Nieuwendyk for Iginla deal years ago between Dallas and Calgary.
I will be surprised if Lander makes the big squad next year with his foot speed. If we get a real vet C, I don't see how Lander can steal the other job away from Cogliano.
ReplyDeletespOILer: I think he takes Lander's job. But you're right there will be changes at C.
ReplyDeleteAs time marches on, I'm more and more convinced that this will be the C depth chart next fall:
1. Nugent-Hopkins
2. Horocff
3. Cogliano or Gagner
4. Lander
Amount
ReplyDeleteCompensation Due
$994,433 or below
None
Over $994,433 to $1,506,716
3rd round pick
Over $1,506,716 to $3,013,434
2nd round pick
Over $3,013,434 to $4,520,150
1st and 3rd round pick
Over $4,520,150 to $6,026,867
1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick
Over $6,026,867 to $7,533,584
Two 1st's, one 2nd, one 3rd round pick
Over $7,533,584
Four 1st round picks
If MBS has half a good of a draft as the last one, there is no really good reason we need to stockpile further. We'll likely have another 1st overall this year. Have a ton of potential a year or two away. The RFA list this year is pretty nuts. I would burn a year worth of drafting in 2012 to pick up some just about to enter their prime type players. I think if you RFA'd the defense market you could really set yourselves up for something special and be a playoff team. A 1st, 2nd and third in 2012 could net you a 4.5 million and a 3 million dollar defencemen that is ready. two first nets you an actual Number 1 defensemen. Yes some of these might be matched but I think it's a worth while to put a body or two that is NHL ready over a year of drafting. Again, a fixed D would go a long way to solving our problems. That and some bottom 6 possible slight overpays gets them with the wind at your back.
Weber (worth two 1st and the rest)
Seabrook (worth a 1st and a third)
Doughty (worth two 1st and the rest)
bogosian
byfuglien (worth a 1st and a third)
stralman
alzner
yandle
barker
dubinsky (worth a 1st and a third)
setoguchi
stafford
chartleys
The easiest way to preven Hemsky's concussions is you make the headhunters pay.
ReplyDeleteThe easiest way to keep P-M Bouchard from getting concussed and Mikko Koivu from getting his leg broken is to employ Derek Boogaard.
Wait... nevermind.
Better employ an entire fourth line of fighters; that'll keep Ryan Kesler from getting cross-checked in the face.
Crap... nevermind.
Also you cannot compare Lander and VV, because Lander is playing in a much weaker league (which is about to fall apart and is full of players that couldn't make the NHL or AHL).
ReplyDeleteLeague equivalencies:
AHL: 0.44
SEL: 0.59
In other words, players making the jump from SEL to NHL keep a greater portion of their offence than players making the jump from AHL to NHL.
Which strongly suggests you have league strength backwards.
I've always loved your work LT, but we both know the Oilers inertia at centre predates their acquisition of Lander ;)
ReplyDeleteLT: Why are you now convinced RNH will be the draftee instead of Couterier?
ReplyDeleteI would prefer a year of Lander in the AHL. A vet 3C (on a one or two year overpay) and the likes of Omara or VV trying to prove they can cut it in the 4C role.
ReplyDeleteChartleys
Anonymous: Two concerns on RFA offer sheets.
ReplyDeleteI don't have the CBA in front of me, but I don't think guys coming of their entry-level deal can be the subject of an offer sheet. So no Bogosian or Doughty.
The other thing is that I'm pretty sure dollar values for offer sheets can, at most, be calculated as if it was a five-year deal.
In other words, if Weber wants $60 million over ten years, that gets treated as if it was a 5-year, $12 million per year deal. 4 first rounders.
I prefer a vet to Lander too. If Lander blows the doors off the AHL over 40 games, bring him up and waive the vet. (Or just wait for injuries, as in Omarks case.)
ReplyDeleteBut remember, injuries hit hard at some point. If Lander isn't ready, and injuries push him up the lineup to 2C for, say, even 15-20 games, that could go a long ways to killing a playoff run.
If he won't sign without a promise of NHL time, promise him at least 25 games or something like that. That should work.
The presence of more vets in the lineup also makes it easier to send the first rounder back to junior. And that will help ameliorate the long-term cap situation caused by keeping Hall up this year.
There is an interesting post regarding Couturier by an Ottawa fan in this hfboards thread:
ReplyDeletehttp://hfboards.com/showthread.php?p=30513713#post30513713
If it is true that Couturier had mono as recently as this fall, it's a pretty important consideration when judging his performance this year. Logan Couture is another play who was highly ranked prior to his draft year and then subsequently from mono at the start of his draft year.
If he's playing below his established level of play this year and is still performing as well as he is, he should rightly be picked 1st overall. And this is coming from a person who has been behind Larrson to this point.
Forgive my writing, this is being posted from the train.
Schitzo: I don't know if your interpretation is correct. I thought the adjustment made to the CBA in the wake of all the mega-deals last year was that, going forward, the cap hit would be the AAV (average annual value) of the highest earning five years of the deal, in order to prevent cap hit being lessened by tacking a bunch of cheap years on at the end of the contract.
ReplyDeleteAnd has the offer sheet eligibility rule changed since the Vanek offer? I thought that was made with him coming off his second year and ELC.
ReplyDeleteLowetide:
ReplyDeleteWouldn't the Oilers be better off puttiing Gagner and one of Penner/Hensky/Gilbert is a deal to get Brayden Schenn out of LA?
Ditto taking the remaining two of Hemsky/Penner/Gilbert and/or Smid and going after Gudbranson/Cowen/Bogosian?
Then you build around:
G: Dubnyk
D: Whitney, Gudbranson/Cowen/Bogosian, Peckham, Petry, Plante, Marincin
C: Horcoff, Schenn, Lander
L: Hall, MPS, Hamilton
R: Omark, Eberle
Lowetide:
ReplyDeleteWouldn't the Oilers be better off puttiing Gagner and one of Penner/Hensky/Gilbert is a deal to get Brayden Schenn out of LA?
Ditto taking the remaining two of Hemsky/Penner/Gilbert and/or Smid and going after Gudbranson/Cowen/Bogosian?
Then you build around:
G: Dubnyk
D: Whitney, Gudbranson/Cowen/Bogosian, Peckham, Petry, Plante, Marincin
C: Horcoff, Schenn, Lander
L: Hall, MPS, Hamilton
R: Omark, Eberle
@lt
ReplyDeleteyou're in on the RNH talk now. what happened to the big french guy?
Anon: Schenn was worth not much before the WJC. Now his value sky-rocket'd. Buying super-high is not exactly the most bright of ideas.
ReplyDeleteI'm still behind Couturier for N1. No fucking way i let ''saw them good/bad'' ahead of size and results.
Neither will I support a guy projecting under another guy's previous year performance.
Unless some credible poster comes up with good stuff afting watching several games in the Q, i'l just say bullshit.
@fpb
ReplyDeletethere's substantial "jordanesque" lore around RNH because he's constantly being triple and double teamed, but still drives results and he's "on the puck" in all areas of the ice.
i don't think that your last statement is incorrect because you're making the same assumptions on RNH as many are making about courturier -- no one has seen a lot of games of both player.
i think RNH or larsson are the reasonable assumptions for the oil, given MBS's draft history (heavy in chl and swe)
Or Landeskog who is Swedish and plays in the CHL?
ReplyDeleteAnybody else hear Gregor refer to Landeskog as a center yesterday? It was just a brief reference and I'm guessing it was a mistake, but is there any history of him playing in the middle?
ReplyDeletei meant to say whl, not chl...but landeskog, certainly fits
ReplyDelete@ LT I would also like to know why you feel it will be RNH? it seems to me drafting him no matter how good he is keeps us spinning our wheels with small forwards and the problems we have had.
ReplyDeleteCan RNH win a face-off? I personally would like to see the Oilers draft Landeskog as he seems more like a Lucic player who will do what he has to to help protect his team mates and plays tough. Players like this who can play in the top 6 are hard to come by
Jfry: Honestly, I think if we go into the ''assumptions'' section, we could also troople booble coverage, likely won't be there in the NHL, and one experienced defender will be enough to strip him.
ReplyDeleteMy main concern with RNH is: Can he actually score? In the NHL happens to passers who don't have scoring ability the ''Gomez'' syndrome.
The NHL defenders just cover the pass and let them go, knowing they probably can't do anything.
I don't think it's an issue that he's a pass first guy, just that if he ain't able to score that might hurt his prime time game.
(But that stays in the assumption section, along with the WJC, Subway and Propsects game)
the rookie of the year, multiple cup winning gomez?
ReplyDelete@ FPB - agreed in the Schenn opinion. Dont trade a proven commodity for an unknown that had a case of "seen him good"
ReplyDeleteJfry: Nah the ''Not a N1 center most of the time, and pretty unstable'' Scott Gomez :P.
ReplyDeleteThen again if we want to go with comparables from the 1998 draft, Vincent Lecavalier ain't so bad either.
I actually agree with FPV for once. Schenn is overvalued
ReplyDeleteAnd his first line potential is questionable at best. I have
no doubt the kid will have a great career, but trading hemsky and gagner for him is far too much based on such a small sample (WJC).
- I see by the clock on the wall - Wayne and Shuster anyone?;) - that Lander isn't winning 50% of his draws in the SEL so mark me down as a guy that wants to see him put some time down in the A before he gets a job here because at some point someone's gonna have to be able to win a faceoff.
ReplyDelete- Renney's in love with 13 but with neither of him or 89 being trusted on the draw we need to bring in a Reasoner type.
- looking at the way people are building the team, where are the PKers? keep 85 as the 4th line RW and PK and bring 10-27 back into that role but you still need other guys. 91 could probably do it but it would be nice to bring in a Dvorak as well.
- whomever's on the unit, the approach has to change.
- same with the PP though 83 on the point and 23 as the set-up man might be a start.
- I don't see us ever being able to pay 23 just because I don't think he'll ever be able to play against real opp and I don't think you can pay guys who Can't.
- Hamilton's the guy I'm looking forward to because he checks and kills penalties and he's a LW with size.
- will anyone pick up Khabby at a half-freight cost of 1.75 mill if the Oilers farm him and then recall him? If so, which guys are out there in the 2 mill range or so that could help bring along DD?
- we've got 30 odd games left but I'm not convinced 49's a top four D just yet. This means 49/58 on the third pairing and two D are needed to flesh out 6-77. Would Lowe swallow his pride and bring back Souray and then give us another year to find a guy for the longhaul?
@ Dennis - I would be happy if this club just brought in a special consultant to help with nothing but the specialty teams. This has been a killer for the team for years!
ReplyDeleteI have always thought that if we could have special teams that are in the top 1/3 of the league and the ability to beat our division rivals we would be play off bound. The Oilers lose so many points in our own division and to teams like Dallas and Nashville that until that changes I cant see us making the play offs.
I even believe that if in 06 if we had been matched against teams from the NW in the play offs we wouldn't have made it to the finals.
I am hoping and thinking Hartikainen will be that Hamilton type player we are looking for.
this is the time to shop Ladislav Smid. Help is on the way.
ReplyDeleteHow about keep Smid and shop Plante instead?
As for Marancin [flavour of the month], let's hope the Traintrust have him in Prince George or Oklahoma! or even Stockton next year. Let us not follow the Smid model with Marancin.
@ Dennis - I loved Wayne and Schuster!
ReplyDeleteot: How about the Vancouver canucks pick up Sheldon Souray?
ReplyDelete@ FPB
ReplyDeleteSchenn is #7 on hockeysfuture top prospects list:
After nearly making the Kings last year out of training camp, Schenn was returned to Brandon for what may have been his final year in junior hockey. Serving as the Wheat Kings’ captain, he tied for the team lead in scoring with 99 points in 59 games, good for fourth overall in the league. He also played for Team Canada at the World Junior Championships, posting eight points in seven games en route to a silver medal. Though he’s still a dynamic playmaker, the 19-year-old power forward has continued to get stronger and round out his all-around game.
That was posted before this years' WJC I beleive. Captain of his team. 99 points in 59 games last season. mynhldraft.com projects him as a "a Bryan Trottier-type player". This year he has played 15 games in the AHL/WHL and has 15 points in 12 games. Not sure why anyone would view him as a "one hit wonder" based on this year's WJC.
Lots to like about that, I think, over another smurf (RNH) or a slow-footed centre (Courtier).
Regarding RNH, I haven't watched him at all. But I look at it this way - what's the most difficult type of player to draft?
ReplyDeleteA Milan Lucic power winger (Landeskog)? A top pairing defenseman (Larsson)? A 6'4 top six centreman (Couturier)?
A franchise centreman. If Couturier is closer to Keith/Wayne Primeau and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the second coming of Matt Duchene - then I can see the argument for RNH.
MDF: you damn well Better like Wayne and Shuster;)
ReplyDeleteI don't want to speak for LT, but perhaps he has listed RNH because he doesn't think Couturier will be on the board when it is the Oilers turn to pick. If that's the case I'd agree. I think all the keyboard mashing to date regarding Couturier will go for not when the Oilers pick 5th and RNH will be the best centreman available (hopefully still available).
ReplyDeleteAs for filling out the blueline next year, what about turning back the clock and trading Penner for Tyler Myers straight up? ;)
Kidding aside, I'm surprised I have never seen a post mortem analysis of the DP offer sheet on the various blogs (or maybe I missed it). Since one poster above has suggested chasing RFA's, I have to ask: As good as DP has been in the last two years, has the organization really come out ahead with the DP offer sheet?
For those who asked, I want them to take Couturier but suspect it'll be RNH.
ReplyDeleteThe Edmonton Oilers are in the WHL era in their drafting. Kind of similar to the way the Islanders built their team after 1973.
More on RNH.
ReplyDeletehttp://thejuniorreport.com/2011/01/25/around-the-whl-nugent-hopkins-increasing-draft-stock/
From Bobby Mac.
http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/story/?id=333756
@ Ashley - Regarding a post mortem of Penner I guess you would have to look at who was available during the draft when Edmonton would have been up to choose and if that player has the potential to reach a higher level than what Penner is at.
ReplyDeleteI am no where near the expert on the draft that other posters on here are so I would defer that answer to them.
For my take I think Penner has been a pretty good addition all negative comments aside but then again I do not know who we would have in his place and how effective they would be with several years seasoning
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ReplyDeleteI had missed this from McKenzie....
ReplyDelete1/17/2011- Couturier is the only one of the elite prospects who has seen his stock fall since September, going from tied for No. 1 to No. 4. Larsson and Nugent-Hopkins received no votes lower than No. 3 from the 10 scouts. Landeskog's lowest mark was a No. 5, but Couturier had two scouts rank him as low as No. 6.
The one scout who ranked Couturier No. 1 isn't sure why he's not getting as much love.
I personally would like to see the Oilers draft Landeskog as he seems more like a Lucic player who will do what he has to to help protect his team mates and plays tough. Players like this who can play in the top 6 are hard to come by
ReplyDeleteSmall sample size and all, but did you watch the Top Prosepcts game? He was ready to go toe-to-toe with (IIRC) a 6'4" large mammal in Duncan Siemens, before David Musil took command of the situation. RNH was pissed off at a questionable hit behind the net on his teammate, and demanded satisfaction.
He's slick, crafty, speedy and has some grit to his game. Sure he may be a bit undersized, but it'll be much easier for him to add 20 pounds to his frame once he becomes a man than Couturier to do the same and still remain productive.
My biggest concern with Schenn is the shoulder.
ReplyDeleteI don't think that was the first time he has had it separated.
No that might be a mistake. Does anybody know? For some reason I have heard that there has been problems with his shoulder prior to this last injury but for the life of me I cannot remember where it came from.
ReplyDelete@ doritogrande - My concern with RNH isn't his heart and drive. I have concern that at his current weight and even with 20lbs more he will be out muscled in the face off circle, add to that he is a play maker not a shooter and that the Oilers already have Hemsky, Gagner, Omark and to a lesser extent Horcoff as playmakers (if we keep them all) do we need another "pure playmaker"?
ReplyDeleteI love the comparisons to Sakic but Sakic could score.
@ Tiger - There was a discussion on it at HFBoards
ReplyDeletehttp://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=861453
On the chance that DD gets a few more starts in the next 3 months, our shot and s/c ratios continue to creep toward .500, the special teams begin to function even slightly above replacement level, and we end up drafting in the 3-5 hole, what selecting about Dougie Hamilton?
ReplyDeletehttp://bruins2011draftwatch.blogspot.com/2011/01/bruins-2011-draft-case-for-dougie.html
Summary
Pro:
-Big Dman - 6.04, 195lbs
-Wide range of skills
-Good skater
-Heavy RH shot
-Good physical presence
-Athletic bloodlines - two Olympian parents
-Smart - Niagara Scholastic Player of Year
-45gp, 9-34-43, +35, 65PIM
-Young - 06/17/93, a full 7mo younger than Larsson
Cons:
-Defence needs work, switched from F at age 14
-Not much of a fighter
BMac had him at 5 in his ranking earlier this month. Thoughts?
@ Lowetide
ReplyDelete1. Nugent-Hopkins
2. Horocff
3. Cogliano or Gagner
4. Lander
There's a recipe for a repeat disaster. Small, lousy on the dot, ineffective at much other than providing optimism for "next year." And once again "WHEN" Horcoff gets hurt, we are left with C's that don't scare anyone. We need a difference maker at C. Have for years.
History tells us it will probably end up being Horcoff/Gagner/Cogliano/Fraser or if management is being really daring Horcoff/Gagner/Cogliano/O'Marra.
To enact change you actually have to make some, and RNH is just more of the same old. It should be Couturier at C,Landeskog at RW, or Larsson at D, although I am not convinced D is where we have to draft.
I think it's imperative to have 2 good C's, difference makers, in the top 6 ala Toews/Sharp, (and how nice would it be to have Bolland as your #3), Sedin/Kesler, Datsyuk/Zetterberg,Crosby/Malkin, Richards/Briere,etc,etc. If your third C is a good faceoff and shutdown guy ala Bolland it just makes you that more effective on the PP and the important "after PP" shifts.
I just do not see room for 2 - 3 smurfs in the top 6 any longer and Eberle is a lock for one. That means Gagner, Cogliano, and Omark find other roles to fill or get shopped. The only way I can justify 2 in the top 6 is if ST pulls a rabbit out of his ass and finds some quality hands wingers with size to compliment them. Penner would certainly be one. Now go add another.
Bos8 said... The easiest way to preven Hemsky's concussions is you make the headhunters pay.
ReplyDeleteEven easier? Trade the guy somewhere else so he can be their problem.
I'll just go ahead and start this up again...
ReplyDeleteWhat do people think it would take to pry the TO pick from Boston this year?
These top projected picks don't seem to have the same hype behind them this year as Taylor/Tyler had last year, so the pick might not be quite as off-limits this time. Plus they might feel like they can go all the way this year with one more big piece.
I just keep going nuts thinking about what an incredibly unique situation this is where you can trade a good player to a contender for a probable lottery pick and not have to worry about the subsequent upgrade to the other team messing up the pick. Just an amazing opportunity if they're at all willing to deal.
Problem is, of course, that they don't have much cap space to deal with even if they're willing to cash in the pick to make a run.
If it turns out Savard is done for the year and there are big questions about his ability to play going forward though, would getting the pick be worth taking back that potentially disastrous contract as part of a deal?
The hardest thing to draft is the top pairing d man. So by that logic, it should be larsson.
ReplyDeleteWith resurgence in jersey, the top competitors for first overall seem to be oilers isles and sens. At this point, I am inclined to give the edge to oilers for another top pick finish.
My preference is larsson followed by couturier and landeskog. I will continue to root against rnh until we draft him after which I will rot fr him lol!
Wayne and Shuster even more relevant today:
ReplyDeletethe Organization of Fuel Using Countries.
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ReplyDeleteDG: Even if he adds 20 pound he'l still be under Couturier.
ReplyDeleteBig man usually go over smaller guys with similar points, not the opposite.
I bet if Couturier was from the WHL he'd be clear cut N1.
fpb - Coutourier disappears when his opponents are as big as he is. He dominates smaller players physically. Less chance for success against even bigger, stronger, faster players in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteHe is a giant in the QMJHL and merely large in the NHL. He's not bringing his offence.
He's not dropping without a reason.
Seriously, look at Chris Gratton. He was #3 OV and had a fine career, but he changed teams 9 times in 16 years.
Deano: Yes, apart from the size those 2 have NOTHING to do with each other.
ReplyDelete6''4 merely large?
I'm sure you watched a lot of QJMHL games and got a lot of video to back that up.
Better tell Hemsky he's not success in the NHL because he shys away from contact.
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ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteI hope we have 3 swedes on next year's team & don't care which one of Landeskog or Larsson we draft. There are too many misgivings about Couterier & RNH.
ReplyDeleteAre any of the top 4 prospects as "blue-chippy" -I just made that up- as Hall and Seguin?
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone think they are?
If so, could we trade our first and something else, say Penner at the deadline, or maybe just Smid + Cogliano -whatever- for Seguin?
Or is Seguin untouchable?
I mean "if not"
ReplyDeleteKris: Why give our pick and a player for 2nd guy OA last year?
ReplyDeleteLandeskog, Couturier and RNH blue chips for sure.
I'd take Seguin over this years crop.
ReplyDeleteOkay, it appears the mono thing is true, and that's an absolute game-changer when it comes to SC.
ReplyDeleteSports and mono do not go together.
So McGuire at Central Scouting notes that Couturier was not able to gain the normal strength and size over the summer that he normally would have. Likely this would have affected the development of his foot speed too.
We should be checking the splits when his season is done to see if there was any improvement in the second half.
Also paying close attention to his weight and strength at the combine before going all RNH on this draft.
Even SC on mono beats RNH on normal (If that's true)
ReplyDeleteHe still progressed from last year.
That's good to hear about SC, although there could be a danger if he turns out to be at all sickly.
ReplyDeleteOne day he's got mono, maybe the next day he's alergic to milk. Next thing you know he's getting run outta town Poti-style...
Pouliot had mono. Maybe he still has it.
ReplyDeleteScene: A group of protestors march around a Trojan horse.
ReplyDeleteProtestors: BAN THE HORSE! BAN THE HORSE!
Wayne: What's there problem?
Schuster: Oh, they're part of this crazy new religion that believes in just one God.
Wayne (incredulous): Only one God?!?
Schuster (holds one finger up): They're this far away from being atheists!
Poti was run out of town because he was fifteen kinds of pathetic. Rangers fans don't exactly want him back either.
ReplyDeletePouliot was drafted because Lowe liked the way he played on a last place team(true!!).
Schremp, although seriously flawed had his trailer trash head screwed by the ex-con weirdo coach MacT.
Comrie, although a selfish little prick, was subjected to the lunatick ravings of Kevin Lowe.
There. Now I feel better.
I had forgotten about Wayne and Schuster. They were a bright spot in my television childhood of 2 1/2 channels.
ReplyDeleteA truly brilliant show, whose comedic genius was demonstrating the kind of idiocy that is currently running the Oilers.
yes, MacT was the problem with the Oilers. Because under him the continually finished last.
ReplyDeleteWait ...
Bar Qu: Some terrible coaches didn't finish last.
ReplyDeleteMany good coaches didn't finish first either.
ReplyDeleteIt is almost like there is other factors in the success or failure of hockey teams other than simply coaching or individual players.
ReplyDelete(I am especially proud of my typing skill here, as this entire message was typed with a 2 year old jamming an ice cream pail repeatedly onto my head)
Bar Qu: Well in the specific case of Schremp we could say most teams probably would have given him a bigger chance then he had here.
ReplyDeleteBar Qu - crazy talk.
ReplyDeleteWhat I see is that cups are won as a result of the elite talent at the top of the roster, the luck of the injuries in the individual team matchups and the roster depth to fill in for the injured players.
What I see is that cups are won as a result of the elite talent at the top of the roster, the luck of the injuries in the individual team matchups and the roster depth to fill in for the injured players.
ReplyDeletePfft. That sounds like crazy talk.
Well in the specific case of Schremp we could say most teams probably would have given him a bigger chance then he had here.
ReplyDeleteAnd likely less of an opportunity to JFJ, Strudwick and others. Mind you, Schremp was a limited player, who limitations were duplicated all over the roster.
But please, let's re-hash that argument all over. It will be useful.
Well not like they're all alike.
ReplyDeleteJL's pretty much turning the Devils around.
Bar Qu: Not really relevant when you got the guys you mentionned on the roster.
ReplyDelete[i]kris said... Are any of the top 4 prospects as "blue-chippy" -I just made that up- as Hall and Seguin? [i]
ReplyDeleteOr the guy whose name I can't even remember being mentioned by the annointed MB....Jeff Skinner?
Hell, the way the season has unfolded Fowler could be mentioned in the same sentence as those 3.
fpb, As I mentioned there was nothing interesting going on except having plastic things smashed onto my cranium, so I figured I would engage pointless debates about past marginal players using pointless counter-examples.
ReplyDeleteTo Hunter's credit he rooted for Skinner multiple times.
ReplyDeleteBar Qu: If we come down to it, no one with actual impact on the club gives a shit about what we think so it's always pointless.
ReplyDeleteThat is why I find it amusing/bizarre when things get so heated on here.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone still wish Oilers drafted Seguin?
ReplyDelete... Didn't I just post something a few minutes ago?
ReplyDeleteScene: The "Frontier Psychiatrist" talks to a noted gunfighter in a saloon.
ReplyDeleteWayne: And was your childhood in any way unusual?
Schuster: Well, when I was five years old my home ran away from me.
Wayne: You mean you ran away from home.
Schuster: No, we lived in a covered wagon and I fell out.
"Ah. HAIL! I'm Flavious Maximus the well known private Roman eye. My license number is IXIVLLCCDIXMV. Also comes in handy as an eye chart.
ReplyDeleteIf you can read it you don't need glasses. If you can pronounce it you're Polish."
what do you guys think about a trade with la for handzus and a pick say 3rd or 4th round for brule
ReplyDeletesaves cap and gives us a faceoff presence...at least for the remainder of the year. i would dearly love them to sign him to a 2-3 million dollar contract for 2-3 years
what do you guys think about a trade with la for handzus and a pick say 3rd or 4th round for brule
ReplyDeletesaves cap and gives us a faceoff presence...at least for the remainder of the year. i would dearly love them to sign him to a 2-3 million dollar contract for 2-3 years
nice work boys:)
ReplyDeleteback to the Oil for a second and I remember poti being dealt because we had a surplus of D and a dearth of O so him for a guy in York who played on a team ran by Sather looked like a nice trading fit.
BTW, another goal and +1 tonight for Hartkainen in a 2-1 OKC loss.
It`s gonna be hard to keep that kid down there if we start unloading the forwards early after the break.
The King of Spain travels to confirm Ponce de Leon's discovery of The Fountain of Youth.
ReplyDeleteHe immediately proceeds to gulp down a large basin of the magical water.
It is pulled away. 'You don't drink it. You soak your feet in it.'
so fair a foul I have not seen
ReplyDeleteThat was a brilliant sketch Gerta.
ReplyDeletePretty tame for the kids of today but for 1958 that was cutting edge stuff.
ReplyDeleteGerta: Well with the shitshows they pass on today i'm not sure (Same scenario for every show)
ReplyDeleteFunny is funny.
ReplyDeleteI show "Who's on First" to kids every now and again and they howl. Wayne and Shuster will hold up well against anything playing today.
Does anyone still wish Oilers drafted Seguin?
ReplyDeleteNot I. Hall has turned out quite well. I still like both players.
Hunter:
ReplyDeleteI like Hall and the fact that he has managed to not get blown up in open ice as much as expected is a huge huge bonus. If you put him with Eric Staal, I don't think Skinner is in the conversation. By the same token, Seguin is performing in a lesser role than either of these two kids so at pressent time it seems a bit early to jump to much of a conclusion.
Had Seguin went to the Leafs, his numbers offensively might be in a similar range.
Chartleys
Also,
ReplyDeleteI may be mistaken but how many of the games top centreman won rookie of the year?
Crosby's aside: The calder is a race fairly bias to wingers and goaltenders.
Chartleys
since 1990
ReplyDeletecenter 4 (was Malkin playing center?)
Goalie: 5
Defense: 3
Wingers: 8
//We should be checking the splits when his season is done to see if there was any improvement in the second half.//
ReplyDeletei remember looking at this in mid january
To start the season he had a small period 2.0ppg rate.
October to mid november. 1.1ppg
Since mid November 2.4PPG
?????????????????
. If you put him with Eric Staal, I don't think Skinner is in the conversation.
ReplyDeleteSkinner actually doesn't play much with Staal, but there is a significant difference in the type of ice time that Skinner and Hall see.
Here is the top 4 5v5 line combos for Skinner (from dobberhockey)
28.23% EV 59 LAROSE,CHAD - 15 RUUTU,TUOMO - 53 SKINNER,JEFF
26.84% EV 26 COLE,ERIK - 15 RUUTU,TUOMO - 53 SKINNER,JEFF
12.48% EV 26 COLE,ERIK - 53 SKINNER,JEFF - 12 STAAL,ERIC
8.06% EV 36 JOKINEN,JUSSI - 15 RUUTU,TUOMO - 53 SKINNER,JEFF
So he doesn't see a pile of ice time with Staal.
However, if we look at Hall vs Skinner in terms of 5v5 QualComp and QualTeam (the scoring version of these metrics since we are talking about scoring) we see an interesting picture.
Skinner
QualComp 8/12 forwards
QualTeam 9/12
Hall
QualComp 1/14
QualTeam 5/14
Skinner is being sheltered from good comp and is feasting.
Hall is being asked to do what most NHL vets can't do, let alone a rookie. He's playing the toughest comp with reasonable help.
The fact that Hall is progressing while being thrown to the wolves as a rookie is an amazing feat and bodes very well for the future of the team (btw, Eberle is 2nd in scoring QC, crazy)
I have no doubt that if Hall was feed the same comp as Skinner (91,23,89 get those minutes on the Oilers), he would have more points and be hailed more.
Hall will be a top 5 NHL forward inside 2-3 seasons. I personally guarantee it.
ReplyDeleteGreat analysis Woodguy (seriously).
ReplyDeleteOn a lighter note, are you still up for that bet? I say the Oilers pick between 6-8 at the 2011 entry draft in June. I want to pin you down before your confidence starts to wane. ;)
I don't think the Oilers should be trading Smid. The "D" calvary will be a few years in coming. Plus Jim V and Kurt Foster are likely going to be moved at the deadline - and they are two of Edmonton's best D men:
ReplyDeleteRelCorsi-
Foster 6.0
Chorney5.0
Vandermeer4.6
Gilbert 4.5
Whitney .9
Smid -1.2
Peckham -3.2
Petry -6.0
Belle -12.5
Strudwick -17.3
You take out Vandermeer, Foster AND Smid and things would be pretty thin on D next year.
Ashley,
ReplyDeleteYou're on!
Stakes?
Cash is usually the easiest, but rather cliche (and difficult over the internet without a broker). Why don't we try something more valuable. How about on the thread for the final game of the season, the loser has to publically, and emphatically admit that they were wrong and quote the other as being correct?
ReplyDeleteDreger tweet...Brian Burke suggests last 5 players of the ASG draft should be drawn out of a hat. Doesn't like negative focus on Kessel.
ReplyDeleteHee hee.
Ribs: Well we could say the truth (He's not worthy of being there) I think Grabovski was a little more worthy. Anyways. Fun to see him get pissed off that his magic plan isn't working out
ReplyDeleteRyan Strome, lil ol Ryan Strome C sitting third in scoring in the OHL - 25 goals 75 points, one point out of second. Extremely young, (birthday in July)no big time linemates, coming out of nowhere. Speed, scoring ability, (called the highlight reel) and he's not in the conversation for the draft. Pardon me?
ReplyDeleteAshley,
ReplyDeleteHow about a slight variation of your proposal?
I suggest an "on demand" statement.
Anytime the winning party requests it, the losing party must say:
"(winner) knows more about hockey than I do, and I bow in his/her (you're female correct?) presence"
The winner can only request the statement once per thread, but the loser must oblige upon demand until the 1st regular season game in 2011/2012 season.
For example, if you win and we are both in a thread, you can say "Woodguy, who knows more about hockey, me or you?"
I would reply "Ashley knows more about hockey than I do and I bow in her presence"
Cool?
Bos8,
ReplyDeleteBob McKenzie has Strome 6th overall.
He's in the conversation.
Woodguy,
ReplyDeleteLove it. I'm in.
Ashley,
ReplyDeleteBOOKED!!
Good luck!
Dennis - Why not PK using your best forwards + 1 dedicated C for winning faceoffs (Mike Peca #2)? Gets them more icetime which is something I think our high end forwards play better with.
ReplyDeleteIn terms of the draft pick discussion, if someone offers us an excellent, proven young player under 25 for the pick (or the pick plus a complimentary guy), I'd take it. this process we're supposedly in could be put into hyperdrive with success fairly quickly. I don't see why someone would do it, but GMs get weird about top prospects.
As many have noted, drafting D is tough, which is why I'd much rather not draft Larsson. His offensive statistics are so underwhelming that they must be noticed in grading him.
Last game three shots to the head, no response. Should have been chicklet time or at least a butt end to the short ribs.
ReplyDeleteSeems to me Smid landed a few shots last game including a beauty elbow to the chops, of course when he did it there was a fucking penalty whereas when it was our guys taking headshots it was referees suffering temporary amnesia about the fucking rules, but that's neither here nor there.
Of course LT traded Smid for the first time back when Ladi was still a fetus, so what we saw in Dallas was just one of those alternate universe things.
To enact change you actually have to make some, and RNH is just more of the same old.
@cabbiesmacker: Say what? Have you actually seen this kid play?
If Couturier is closer to Keith/Wayne Primeau and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the second coming of Matt Duchene - then I can see the argument for RNH.
@MasterLok: Hear, hear.
WG
ReplyDeleteHe's in the conversation by some and comments are something like dynamic center. But then I think Central Scouting had him 19th. Hey we're scouting as hard as we can.
Kids at that age are still growing in size and strength so you have these big leaps in results.
As an aside I looked at the top scoring in QHL, a whole mess of little guys. SC must be like a giant amongst them.
Did I miss something? Did they trade Smid? Don't tease me now.
ReplyDeleteLT: They didn't. You did. 1437 times at last count.
ReplyDeleteI bet he could bring back something at the deadline. Teams always look for help along the blue around this time.
ReplyDeleteThe thing I like about Strome is that he's playing with weak support and his assists are double the goals. As the best player he's keyed on, more so than say Ottawa forwards and yet he's challenging for the overall scoring lead. Against St Mikes he was held scoreless and -5 then came back with six points, (five assists) in the next two games. In the prospects game he was passing to people who couldn't do much in the first half then got frustrated and tried to do it all himself. To me he should be in the top forward category.
ReplyDeleteIf the Oilers don't trade for a top pairing RH dman, I'd like to see the pairing be:
ReplyDelete6-77
5/49-58
49/5-Larsson
Based on how well 5-58 have done via Dennis' SC metric, they can probably handle 2nd toughs as soon as next year, maybe 49 slots in there.
I've always thought that you could trade 5 to a team that has a good D-core but needed some help up front.
5 + Forward bringing back a top pairing Dman.
The team would need to be able to fill the top pair guy by promoting a 2nd pair guy and 5 slots in their 2nd pair.
Would need to be a pretty decent forward going with 5 to get a good return.
Those deals are done in the summer though, no one trades good Dmen at the deadline unless they are going UFA and their team is out of the playoffs.
I think the real question is this: why does LT hate Smid?
ReplyDeletewood guy what is the comp correction for each division
ReplyDeleteJW,
ReplyDeleteI think it was that time Smid talked smack about Pouliot's mom.
Bruce @cabbiesmacker: Say what? Have you actually seen this kid play?
ReplyDeleteYes Bruce I have. His name was Sam Gagner back then though.
Ricki,
ReplyDeleteI just simply showed where each player is slotting in on their team.
Don't know any correction factor, but I'd guess 8/12 QC is slightly easier in the Eastern Conference than in the West.
I'd also guess that 1st QC in the West is magnitudes better than 8th QC in the East.
Cabbie,
ReplyDeleteSo you are arguing against a prospect based sheerly on analogy? And you haven't seen one half of that analogy?
Question for the group: When is Smid eligible for UFA status?
ReplyDeleteWhen he's 27.
ReplyDelete... and a half.
ReplyDeleteLouise: So, summer 2013? He'll be 27 in Feb of 2013.
ReplyDeleteyup
ReplyDeleteWG: I'd need to see a bigger sample size before I would live and die with 5/58 as anything but a third pairing. I imagine they're playing secondary toughs now just because Old Man Renney won't match, though.
ReplyDeleteGreat work breaking down 4 and 14's numbers by the way. There's some hope there if we find some other players but at the very least our kids should be outscores in another year's time or so provided the D isn't terrible.
LM: I don't have a problem with the best players killing penalties just as long as they're able to do it. We've seen in past years where guys like 14 and 89 were given PK roles only to lose them so, yeah, you don't have to use the bottom six as Pkers but I wouldn't certainly wouldn't mind doing so. Build a top six of outscorers that you pay real money to and then fill your bottom sixers with Peca types who can saw off and doing a job on the PK.
In any case the Oilers are gonna have to figure out How to PK before we worry about who's out there.
@cabbiesmacker: So RNH = Gagner based on what, exactly? Gut feeling?
ReplyDeleteI don't recall Gagner ever being ranked #1 by anyone in his draft year.
I've only seen Nugent-Hopkins a couple times myself, but I was tracking him specifically from up top and was very impressed with what I saw. Terrific all-ice game, with and without the puck. Strong skater, great anticipation and vision.
Hey lookit! It's the Epic Fail contest in the skills compeition!
ReplyDeleteI've seen him Spoiler. For a few years actually and I'm not arguing against him. I just think there are better options that fill bigger needs while giving ST some latitude to shake things up.
ReplyDeleteDo you think he will be ranked #1 overall come draft day Bruce?
Not saying the kid is a bad player just that I think he's more of what we already have and there's better options i.e. the Swedes. Landeskog has already duplicated his point totals from last year in half the games. If Hemsky is odd man out via trade he might be a viable option behind JE at 2line RW. We need skilled size more than C redux. Purely an opinion.
Perhaps Gagner and Hemsky together garner that C we desperately need or the option to draft one.
WG:
ReplyDeleteThanks for that breakdown! I mistakingly assumed something and I shouldn't have been that lazy to not do a bit of the legwork. I learn more on a weekly basis in these parts.
Chartleys
The Q's tall tree with 5 points tonight.
ReplyDeleteLowetide said...
ReplyDeleteMDF: I think the Oilers should build around the following players:
G: Dubnyk
D: Gilbert, Whitney, Peckham, Petry, Plante, Marincin
C: Horcoff, Gagner, Lander
L: Hall, Penner, MPS
R: Hemsky, Eberle
LT, you don't "build around" a centre who will be 35-36 when the team is ready to compete, 6 bottom 4 defensemen and two wingers who will take the Last Train to Clarksville.
Smart GM's identify the players who will be in their prime and major contributors when the team is ready to compete for the cup and none of Horcoff, Penner, Hemsky, Whitney, Gilbert or Gagner belong in that group.
You may still feel the Oilers are a "veteran RH centre who can PK" away from being a competitor but, lordy, the road is a lot longer than that,
The core is Hall, Eberle, MPS, Petry, Peckham, Omark and maybe Dubnyk.
Of course, there are a some nice prospects in the pipeline but the Oilers are far from the only team in the league that has nice prospects.
DSF: Good points all. I do think they're closer to being a playoff team than many believe, but that doesn't mean they'll make the playoffs next season.
ReplyDeleteSmart GM's identify the players who will be in their prime and major contributors when the team is ready to compete for the cup and none of Horcoff, Penner, Hemsky, Whitney, Gilbert or Gagner belong in that group.
ReplyDeleteHemsky and Penner are what, 27 or 28 years old? Good lord, how many years out do you see before this team is competitive again?
@ shitzo
ReplyDeleteDepends when AD (after dithers)starts...
chartleys
At least we're not waiting for bryan glynn and geoff smith's games to round out in the meantime!
ReplyDeletechartleys
@ Schitzo
ReplyDeleteHemsky and Penner are what, 27 or 28 years old? Good lord, how many years out do you see before this team is competitive again?
Two years to be a bubble team and 5 to compete for a cup.
They stink.
Lordy, look at the numbers.