Bob McKenzie released his top 60 mid-season rankings this afternoon and the pecking order is surprising. It looks to me as though we're going to be in for one of those "surprise" drafts in 2011.
What does that mean? Things like a consensus top 20 player dropping to the third round, and things like a player not on the radar jumping into the top 15.
Kevin Prendergast would have loved this one.
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McKenzie's list is here. The ISS list is here. They are very close at the top. Here's the top 10 for BM, ISS and Redline.
Bob McKenzie
- D Adam Larsson
- C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
- R Gabriel Landeskog
- C Sean Couturier
- D Dougie Hamilton
- C Ryan Strome
- D Ryan Murphy
- L Brandon Saad
- C Jonathan Huberdeau
- R Tyler Biggs
International Scouting Services
- D Adam Larsson
- C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
- R Gabriel Landeskog
- C Sean Couturier
- C Ryan Strome
- D Ryan Murphy
- D Duncan Siemens
- D Dougie Hamilton
- L Brandon Saad
- F Nicklas Jensen
Redline Report
- C Sean Couturier
- R Gabriel Landeskog
- C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
- D Adam Larsson
- L Brandon Saad
- D Ryan Murphy
- D Dougie Hamilton
- R Ryan Strome
- C Alex Khokhlachev
- D David Musil
Based on these three lists, I believe we have a pretty good idea about the current top 10.
Holy crap w.r.t. #23...wonder if he can skate?
ReplyDelete23. Jamie Oleksiak
Defence - Northeastern University (H-East)
Born: 12/21/92
HT/WT: 6-7, 242 lbs.
Stats: 2G - 3A - 5Pts - 18PIM
Clear as mud. MBS is going to earn his money this year - hopefully.
ReplyDeleteWell..Bob's list is pretty much the holy grail of all lists.
ReplyDeleteI am very delighted to see Hamilton ranked in the top 5 and JH in the top 10.
Everyone has RNH up high so maybe he is much better than what his numbers show. We will have to see the individual point percentage on him to see how many goals he was on ice for.
A couple quick thoughts:
ReplyDelete(1) A bit surprised to see Couturier drop, I'm assuming that isn't reactionary after the U-20's. His skating has improved but maybe that's still an issue, and maybe scouts see him as a player who's physical matured earlier than others?
(2) Not too surprised to see Hamilton ahead of Siemens, I know a lot of WHL swatchers really like Siemens but Hamilton sounds pretty good as well.
(3) Strome at 6 meshes with what I heard from a scout, who told me he expects him to go within the first 6 or 7 picks.
(4) The two OHL Russians are a bit lower than I'd have expected
(5) St. Croix and Bell are too low (IMO).
Geowal,
ReplyDeleteOleksiak started the year ranked deep, 50+ in some spots, but he has impressed with an improvement to his skating and offense this year and has steadily climbed his way up.
Just on size alone, some team was probably going to take a flyer on him way before where he was originally ranked.
SumOil...
Bobby Mac's list, despite being in your opinion the Holy Grail, does not clear up the confusion. There is no definitive clear cut choice at the top of this draft (not that that necessarily is a bad thing, but sadly we won't know for years whether it was or not). There would have even been disagreement among the scouts he polled and then amalgamated into this one list. Ducey is right, MBS is going to earn his money.
Unlike last year where it meant a lot drafting at the top - this year - not so much. You could potentially get the best kid at #4 or #5 - maybe even higher. I'd like a dman this year - Larsson or Hamilton - but Couturier or Landeskog would also be fine. As long as we draft top 5 we should be fine.
ReplyDeleteLuedeke on Oleksiak's skating:
ReplyDelete"His mobility is surprisingly good for a big man, although he does need to improve his agility and pivots/turns. But as far as straight-line speed goes, that long, powerful stride of his covers a lot of ice quickly."
http://bruins2011draftwatch.blogspot.com/2010/11/central-scouting-watch-list-ncaa.html
@Spoiler
ReplyDeleteOf course. None can clearly predect how the draft will go. And it is still 6 months away. His final list is the most awaited one!
Furthermore it seems like Bob Mckenzie is the most connected man in the hockey world. So I take his lists very seriously.
If you saw the program, they really played up Larsson over the others.
ReplyDeleteiirc, the Hall/Seguin split in Mackenzie's draft list last year was about 5:3.
Yeah they kind of made Larssen out to be the second coming.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the Devils are starting to wake up. Could be first overall again for the Tambellinis.
If Hall can play centre then I think they go with one of the two Swedes. Larssen was trending down until the WJC but apparently he has been battling injuries.
They might have to put one of the three crowns in the oildrop if they draft another Swede.
ReplyDeleteSo Larsson is N1 despite dropping from last year's numbers and being inferior to Victor Hedman's draft numbers despite the latter being much larger.
ReplyDeleteSame for RNH who can't beat Couturier's last year PPG and still picken' over.
Deep draft it is. Still think that the early things are too conservatory as Huberdeau, Phillips and COuturier are ripping it
Does this mean that the Oilers are back to larceny for Larsson?
ReplyDeleteI keep hearing that he's "more talented" and "meaner" than Victor Headman.
I've also heard that there's a number of decent (not superstar) centers available in the top 20.
Jay: Well if he's more talented then the question becomes how come he has been worst than last year, and worst (By a good margin) than Hedman's draft year.
ReplyDeleteJay - the comparison for Larsson in the program was Ulf Samuelsson with Lidstrom's brain.
ReplyDeleteWell let's stir the pot here.
ReplyDeleteCan't help but find humour in FPVs pumping of Huberdeau when he's basically playing on the Q's answer to Taylor Hall's Windsor Spitfires. That team is comically stacked.
Read countless posts from him how Seguin>Hall because of the team he played on last season but Huberdeau who nobody heard of until recently is comically underated at 9? Come on son.
No real issues with Mackenzie's list. I am a Blades seasont ticket holder so I like to pump Siemens tires but Hamilton sounds like he is the same sort of dman with quite a bit more offense in him so he deserves the acclaim.
Good to see RNH get his props. I think the kid is fantastic and there is more to this prospect thing then reading boxcars.
Here's a run of the guys with at least 6''2 and 10 points clear of theyr games in Junior or PPG in College drafted in the top 15 since 2000. (Defensemen not included)
ReplyDelete2000: Dany Heatley, Scott Hartnell,
2001: Jason Spezza
2002: Rick Nash
2003: Eric Staal, Thomas Vanek, Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown, Hugh Jessiman
2004: Alexandre Picard, Drew Stafford,
2005: Bobby Ryan
2006: Jonthan Toews
2007: None
2008: None
2009: Evander Kane
Out of 16 Players only 2 draft busts.
Smarmy: Hall was number one, as him he's well clear of the rest of him team exeption made of his running mate.
ReplyDeleteHeh. As posted above size and speed seems to work quite a bit.
Maybe there's more then reading boxcars, but they do pretty damn well in a draft.
Size and Skill*
ReplyDeleteIn the list you made how many are from the Q? I'm gonna watch the Top Prospects game because the Subway Series and the WJHC made Couturier look more like Chris Gratton then a first line center.
ReplyDeleteAnd yes there is a ton more to drafting players then reading the boxcars. Glad you're learning here.
ReplyDeleteSB: Sample size.
ReplyDeleteSB: If I recall your the guy who defended Colton Gillies as a pick.
ReplyDeleteSmarmy:
ReplyDeleteHow concerned should a drafting team be that, while Siemens is a good prospect, he might be benefiting quite a bit from seemingly playing on the top line?
I'm assuming he's paired with Elliot from their +/-'s, is that accurate?
Hamilton's offence seems to be a bit beter, but then agaiin he could just have more opportunity. However, his plus minus is well clear of any other Niagara D, while Siemens is slightly behind Elliot.
Yep Gillies was a very good hockey player that had the misfortune of being drafted by the Minnesota Wild who then called him up to sit in the pressbox when he should have been playing junior hockey.
ReplyDeleteBut keep trying to be right all the time by spitting out platitudes like sample size. I've already shown you post out of your ass on these topics.
SmarmyB: Yeah right. Colton Gillies in the first round. If a kid can't pop half a point per game in the Junior how the fuck do you expect him to score in the NHL.
ReplyDeleteThat's a list of top 15 picks under PPG from 2003-2004. Out of them, only one could be called a 1st liner and he's on his 3rd team.
Under:
2003: None
2004: Ladd, Wheeler
2005: Pouliot, Setoguchi, O'Marra
2006: Grabner,
2007: Sutter
2008: None
@speeds
ReplyDeleteI don't think the team that gets him should be concerned. You are correct that for the most part he pairs with Elliott but Lorne does mix up his pairs from time to time and Siemens fares well wherever the put him.
Siemens lower point total is partly due to the Blades incompetent power play. (I believe they're 18 out of 22 teams)
With Schenn join the Blades I would be surprised if he didn't give their pp units a good shot in the arm and pump up the box cars of guys like Siemens, Hamilton, and Elliott)
Which would be cool as Elliott is only 20 or so points away from being the Blades all time leading scorer.
@ Smarmy Boss
ReplyDeleteHamilton has had a lot of EV production too. Last i checked, him and murphy have had similar ES production.
@fpv.
ReplyDeleteHe was injured in his draft year and it hampered his point totals. He was always considered a big, strong power forward type who was execellent defensively.
But I wouldn't expect you to understand these sorts of things since all you do is sort stats on CHL sites and make bad posts on topics you only casually understand.
RNH is basically in Seguin's boat as being the offensive catylyst on his team. You used it to support your Seguin>Hall arguements but RNH is no good because he hasn't scored goals.
You talk about Huberdeau like he should be a lottery pick when it's apparent his numbers are benefitting from playing on a stacked team in a scorers league whose trade deadline has laughable deals like two top players from a bottom feeder for a sixth round pick.
Even on a stat driven site like this nobody is going to support your boxcar drafting over advice and input from actual scouts to go along with the numbers.
yup both have 19 ES points
ReplyDelete@sumoil
ReplyDeleteThat's good to know. I didn't really comment as to how Hamilton got his points only that he gets more of them then Siemens.
Smarmy Boss
ReplyDeleteSeguin was point per game when it comes to ES production. He was also bigger and scored close to 50 goals....RNH<Seguin
SB: Even injured, to be considered a good scoring threat he would have to score more than what he did, his numbers we're some of the worst ever recorded for a 1st rounder in the modern era.
ReplyDeleteI'm not discrediting RNH as a whole, but rather over Sean Couturier. There's the size difference that wasn't there on the Hall/Seguin debate. And the margin his higher between the too.
The problem is you use something in a debate that's not similar. Because Hall and Seguin were close I brang him the catalyst arguement. Because it was Seguin VS Hall.
Now it's RNH vs Couturier and then you bring in Huberdeau which as nothing to do with the catalyst arguement.
I never said Huberdeau over RNH.
As for Huberdeau, you could say the same god damned thing about Hall last year, most ridiculous number of 1st round picks on the same team ever.
My comments are less about the prospects in general I'd agree RNH<Seguin.
ReplyDeleteAnd while I'm not wild about Couturier I feel the Oilers are good enough under Gregor that he's fine if that his pick.
My biggest issue with fpv is his tendency to pick which stats suit his agruement and a lack of understanding regarding the context of stats in his agruements.
Plus his anger issues of freaking out and using strong language when people arern't eating up what he's throwing out there.
I can tell you're upset about me telling you off for ripping on Gillies. I'd seen the guy play and understood where Minnesota was coming from making that selection. Their gross mishandling of his development not withstanding. If it had been any other player I likely would have just ignored it all together.
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ReplyDeleteWhy don't Smarmy and FPV just get their dads to fight each other and settle this once and for all?
ReplyDeleteSB:
ReplyDeleteJust for fun here's the kids drafted from 2000 to 2008 with productivity more than 5 points down GP. (CHL)
2000: Alexeev, Hossa (Marcel), Sutherby,
2001: None
2002: Klepis, Gordon, Paille, Eager
2003: Fehr
2004: Chipchura
2005: Setoguchi
2006: Grabner
2007: Gillies, Sutter, Macmillan
2008: None
I can understand as a Blades fan you liked Gillies but in 8 Years of drafting guys with low scoring in the WHL the best you got is a marginal top 6'er.
SB: The problem is that I have with context is that there's so many games played in the CHL, and the big numbers of team, I don't know if a guy could scout enough games to get out of a sample size and have a good comparison with two players.
ReplyDeleteYes theyre is obvious flaws to detect and that's why you need scouts, but prefering one guy over another with really better stats on the same floor of competition based on a couple of games seems rather rubish.
I'm going to show you my issue with virtually all your posts. (Then I'm going to bed)
ReplyDeleteSB: Even injured, to be considered a good scoring threat he would have to score more than what he did, his numbers we're some of the worst ever recorded for a 1st rounder in the modern era.
Yes some of the worst since the late sixties. Good example of you being over-dramatic.
I'm not discrediting RNH as a whole, but rather over Sean Couturier. There's the size difference that wasn't there on the Hall/Seguin debate. And the margin his higher between the too.
Well you'd never post as simply saying you prefer Couturier due his size. You're too aggressive for that. I think you might of even said he shouldn't be in the top five.
The problem is you use something in a debate that's not similar. Because Hall and Seguin were close I brang him the catalyst arguement. Because it was Seguin VS Hall.
Nope the problem is you pick and choose what suits your agruement and ignore it when it doesn't. This isn't about the actual players being bandied about. It's about you using the catylyst arguement for Seguin and then completly ignoring it for RNH.
Now it's RNH vs Couturier and then you bring in Huberdeau which as nothing to do with the catalyst arguement.
I never said Huberdeau over RNH.
As for Huberdeau, you could say the same god damned thing about Hall last year, most ridiculous number of 1st round picks on the same team ever.
You did indirectly since you've declared RNH wasn't in your top five and you feel Huberdeau should be.
Same thing can't be said for Huberdeau as it was Hall because Hall actually has pedigree and was a concensus 1st overall possibility long before his draft year. Most people never even talked about Huberdeau until the last month or so.
Look at you go.
ReplyDeleteGet over yourselves.
ReplyDeleteChildren.
And that means?
ReplyDeleteThere must be a reason that RNH has passed Couturier in the eyes of scouts, especially given the size and scoring statistical advantage of the latter.
ReplyDeleteBy all accounts Couturier has skill to spare and doesn't shirk his defensive responsibilities. To me that leaves the obvious question mark about his skating...could it be poor enough to negate his other positives?
It would be interesting to hear the scouts account for the downgrade on Couturier.
St. Croix is getting inexplicably murdered on this midseason lists.
ReplyDeleteSame size and boxcars as Sven Ba(e)rtschi (on a significantly worse team and without the benefit of skill players to play with like Neiderreiter and Rattie) and he's 40 spots lower on McKenzie's list and 25 NA skater spots behind on CSB's list (plus no invite to the Top Prospects Game).
I haven't seen enough of Ba(e)rtschi to compare them, but I'd be really interested in hearing what someone who has thinks the gap is.
Re: Duncan Siemens
ReplyDeleteHe has the latest BDay of anyone else on McKenzies list (Sept 11 / 93).
He is 11 months younger than other D men on the list like Scott Mayfield or even Larsson.
If the Oilers take another Swede, then they're back on the Detroit model right?
ReplyDeleteI think that RNH's high slot is MBS rigging BM's list.
Not yet assured of getting a top 2, MBS moves quickly to discredit SC to help keep his options open. The Bastard.
Also,
A 17 SC looking "average" against 18 & 19 year old 1st rounders is a good thing isn't it?
Sure, Hall showed better, but he got featured ice time, and he's Taylor Hall. Everyone says there is not Hall/Seguin this year, so why look for them?
@WG
ReplyDeleteAgreed
A kid gets cut from the WJC team and doesnt really dominate the league he is playing in is ranked 2 spots higher than one who made it to the game. Furthermore, SC is average as you said due to less ice time with lesser line mates. Furthermore, he has been dominating the Q. And he ends up dropping 3 spots!
Please, lets not get the tournament of small sample sizes influence these rankings a lot.
@ Smarmy Boss
ReplyDeleteI should have been clearer, by both i meant both Murphy and Hamilton. sorry.
Siemens has 14 of them. Given that Hamilton is bigger and also a rugged and mobile, I see no reason why he shouldnt be ahead of siemens.
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ReplyDeleteI agree with POW.
ReplyDeleteST CROIX A WINNIPEG KID WITH DAD AND HOCKEY ROOTS! RANKED MUCH LOWER THEN BARTCHSI. A SWISS PLAYER!! HMM LIKE THERE IS SO MANY DOMINAT SWISS PLAYERS.... THE OILERS TOOK THE FIRST SWISS IN THE FIRST ROUND EVER HIS NAME WAS RIESEN! NOOW HE HAS IS A CANDY!! LOL
IF ANYTEAN CAN SNAG ST CROIX IN THE 2ND ROUND OR LATER, THERE LAUGH
ING!
I agree with P-OW.
ReplyDeleteST CROIX A WINNIPEG KID WITH DAD AND HOCKEY ROOTS! RANKED MUCH LOWER THEN BARTCHSI. A SWISS PLAYER!! HMM LIKE THERE IS SO MANY DOMINANT SWISS PLAYERS.... THE OILERS TOOK THE FIRST SWISS IN THE FIRST ROUND EVER HIS NAME WAS RIESEN! NOOW HE HAS A CANDY!! LOL
IF ANYTEAM CAN SNAG ST CROIX IN THE 2ND ROUND OR LATER, THERE LAUGH
ING!
Anonymous: So you're telling us they shouldn't have selected those Euros back in the 80's?
ReplyDeleteBitch please.
@fpb
ReplyDeletethe crux of his point stands....St croix shud be ranked a little higher.
I'm not even saying that St. Croix should necessarily be ranked higher (though he started the season at ~20 on the ISS list and certainly hasn't done anything to drop from that). I'm just wondering where the full-round gap between him and Barstchi is coming from based on size and boxcars.
ReplyDeleteAlso, Re: RNH:
I think people are underestimating what he's doing, especially comparing it to guys like Couturier. 17-year-old forwards don't have the same sort of history of success in the WHL that they do in the Q or the O. Maybe it's because of the size/development of defencemen out West, I don't know, but, as an anecdotal long-time follower of the WHL, I can't remember there ever being a guy who, in his draft year or earlier, was ripping up the league in scoring. Meanwhile, there appears to be some sort of underage scoring savant in the OHL or QMJHL every year (Couturier, Hall, Seguin, Tavares, Crosby, Spezza, Lecavalier)
Now, perhaps this speaks to a relative weakness of scoring forwards being produced by the WHL—the highest scoring WHL grads in the NHL are Iginla and Byfuglien, who are tied for 18th—but it should also inform what RNH is doing as fairly special (special-ish?).
As far as I can tell, Johansen led draft-eligible players in scoring last year and was tied for 35th in the WHL (though that also appears to have been a down year).
I don't know that he's better than Couturier, and I don't think he's a better fit, but I do know that he shouldn't be particularly handicapped because of where he's placed on the league scoring table. The players who have been up that high in recent drafts (Kane, Schenn, Ennis) look pretty damn good.
FPB: nothing gainst the europeans! it was more a knock on swiss players. anyone who knows hockey , couldnt count 5 swiss players in the history to play 100 NHL games. SWISS!!! not other Europeans!! the Oilers took the BEST Supposedly ever!! Micheal Riesen!!!
ReplyDeletein the 90s and he is nowhere to be found! St Croix should be higher yep!! this is why good scouting depts. are critical. maybe guys like St. Croix slip to late pics and teams who actually watched him say! thanks for leaving this guy for me!!!! Id be surprised if he doesnt go in the first round but whatever.. right now my team picks only once so ill be quiet!!!! i wouldnt want u to tip off the scouts!!
lol
Adam Larsson will be Oilers pick, if they get a chance at him.
ReplyDeleteEdmonton will pick #2 and take either Hopkins or Larsson than trade one of them for Boston's 2 first round picks.
ReplyDelete