Friday, January 14, 2011

Hartikainen Hot

This is Teemu Hartikainen (in OKC uniform). He scored his 13th goal of the season this evening and has enjoyed a strong run (16gp, 6-10-16 +7) since 10 December.

For those of us who cheer like demons for the Finns, this has to be regarded as very good news. Hartikainen is reaching the point where we can begin to talk about his as a legit callup option. I mentioned #35 as a possible option here and he's been posting numbers since that day.

How can we judge an AHL 20-year old in terms of future role? Well a lot of it has to do with size, strength and position. However, there are some things we can learn from the past that might give us clues about the future. In the middle of the 07-08 season I looked at the AHL rookies (here) and specifically the 20-year olds. Included in the group were kids like Bobby Ryan, Bryan Little, Nick Foligno, Gilbert Brule and others. Vic Ferrari's 1/1 rule is a tough nut to crack but it is a very nice tell for the future.

So where does Hartikainen rank in a group in which we're familiar? What do his numbers tell us compared to other Oilers AHL rookies who played at 20? Here's a quick list:
  1. Rob Schremp (06-07 SWB Penguins) 69gp, 17-36-53 .768ppg
  2. Jarret Stoll (02-03 Hamilton Bulldogs) 76gp, 21-33-54 .711ppg
  3. Marc Pouliot (05-06 Hamilton Bulldogs) 65gp, 15-30-45 .692ppg
  4. Jean Francois Jacques (05-06 Hamilton Bulldogs) 65gp, 24-20-44 .677ppg
  5. Teemu Hartikainen (10-11 OKC Barons) 42gp, 13-14-27 .643ppg
  6. Kyle Brodziak (04-05 Edmonton Roadrunners) 56gp, 6-26-32 .571ppg
  7. Jani Rita (01-02 Hamilton Bulldgos) 76gp, 25-17-42 .553ppg
  8. Slava Trukhno (07-08 Springfield Falcons) 64gp, 14-21-35 .547ppg
  9. Ryan O'Marra (07-08 Springfield Falcons) 31gp, 2-7-9 .290ppg
  10. Zack Stortini (05-06 Iowa/Milwaukee) 64gp, 2-8-10 .156ppg
What does it mean? First, Hartikainen's season has a long way to go and he should improve that number. Second, his PP numbers (6-2-8) are probably stronger than a few others on this list so his EV number won't be as impressive as implied here. I think it comes down to how much he can post the rest of this season.

If he can keep rolling as he has since mid-December, Hartikainen will be right at the top of the list of possible callups after the deadline, along with Ryan O'Marra, Shawn Belle and Alex Plante. The kid has a shot at making the show and no matter what happens from here I'd say he's covered his draft bet.

29 comments:

  1. That's a pretty impressive stretch and it's not an overly small sample size because it's almost a quarter of a season.

    And it's easy to paint this as a guy who just had a slow start and just needed more icetime and the right linemates to get going.

    And considering where he was drafted this looks great.

    He's a grinder with skating issues, right?

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  2. Is he a good skater? Because aFinns are always the most North American of the Euo's --- most have grit.Love Finns almost as much as Renney loves Smac! LOL

    I do not give ST credit for much but he has done a good job with the kids on OKC

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  3. Yeah, he had heavy feet according to Redline. Improved a lot over the last two seasons, though.

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  4. I think everybody loves Finns.

    They're a very passionate, gregarious people. Ridiculously tough language to learn, but easy to pronounce. They make great hockey players, are ridiculously over-represented in motorsports, and remind me a lot of Canadians - but without the stony, English-inspired reserve we Canadians seem to have.

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  5. So you are telling me he is worse than Schremp Pouliot and JFJ......
    (facepalm)

    All kidding aside, he has been everything as advertised. Many people have said that his points on PP comes by standing in front of the net and screening and tipping. Or in other words he might be getting some unofficial assists ;)on the PP.
    I think he is some sorta healthy hybrid between Ryan Stone and Thomas Holmstrom. Gritty winger not known for skating. But defensively reliable and good enough to be on the 2nd PP unit. coachPB had a post while back on hatikainen showing that he has generally had a much better second half to the season than the first and this season is no different.

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  6. He has improved his skating a lot and has worked on it almost every summer. It still is average at best, but nothing that can't be improved.

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  7. I'm liking him less since I wrote this post. Every damn time I come back to the OKC game buddy's added another point.

    It's becoming tiresome. :-)

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  8. I think everybody loves Finns.

    Finnish hockey players, yes.

    But hot women? The Swedes still rule Odin's land.

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  9. I think everybody loves Finns.

    Not surfers.

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  10. @lowetide whats up with Plante lately, apparently he's getting benched? I thought he was playing great but really could only watch one OKC game

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  11. Teemu is no Bryan Helmer - 10pts in 5 games for a 38 year old Dman.

    Call him up - he's hot!

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  12. Plante played yesterday and tonight. Got 3 pts and a scrap.

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  13. @sschult1

    As far i konw there is a rotation of D in the farm

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  14. All three of his points tonight were at EV and looks like his linemates were Kyntar and Cornet so that's not like playing with Gretzky and Kurri.

    The kid's about to get on the radar pretty quickly.

    Speaking of that, I dare say 10-14 will be back pretty soon so who takes the gaspipe? I hope it's not 23 and if we consider 46 to be finished as an Oiler then you look to take two from the current 12 and that should be 22-33 despite Renney's intention;) of having 33 play every game.

    Then things get even dicier once 67 gets back. I wonder if Tambo's shopping 16 and 67 around already?

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  15. If Omark gets sent down, I'll be quite disappointed.

    I try not to sound like I know better than management, but that would be a silly move.

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  16. Dennis: I think Brule may already have taken the gaspipe. He's had two injuries that aren't related to each other and the timing was "convenient."

    It reminds me of the period of time where the guy brule was traded for (Raffi) was persona non grata and there were no updates for months on him.

    Brule may be gonza.

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  17. LT: you think? I know it went from sternum to ankle but Raffi just got hurt in the middle of the year and just didn't come back and we didn't hear from him until he was dealt in the summer.

    67's case is a bit different because they'd have to move him in-season.

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  18. Dennis: I don't know, didn't he have the flu before that? I think Renney might just be tired of playing him.

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  19. 67 had flu and then the next thing u knw he was on the IR.

    Also I think JFJ's time maybe up or rather it should be up. I am scared that 85 might be the one who gets sent down. I think 85 would be great with 10 and 14, finally making 13 a 4th line winger with Fraser and JFJ?
    27-4-83
    91-89-23
    85-10-14
    Not a bad top 9 at all

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  20. Why on earth would you give up on Brule before Cogliano? If I have to pick a struggling young player to baby-sit in the middle of the roster, I'd rather pick the one that can be coaxed into a physical game. Not to mention they need players who shoot the puck, rather than wait for a backdoor play to develop.

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  21. Just a general comment. I'm a big fan and read often but am struggling with the current look of the blog. The black text on light blue background is really hard to read for those of us with less than ideal eyesight.

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  22. SumOil... you're benching Jones? Shame on you.

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  23. Okay I've changed the background a little. However, I'm color blind so if it's terrible let me know and I'll have my web designer look at it.

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  24. Text display - At the top of the comment section (look up .. look way up..lol), there is the link "Show original post", doing that shows the blog black on white background.....

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  25. anon

    I did miss Jones! you are right. Damn there are two choices\a> rotation
    b> 23 gets sent down

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  26. Just glancing through some Barons game sheets he seems to have benefited from the O'Marra callup by taking his place between Omark and Reddox.

    Now with those 2 up it looks like he's back with Cornet & Kytner.

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  27. I'll always like and root for 67 because of what he did for that kid from your area that had to go to NYC for some kind of special surgery - I remember the story broke this past summer - but hockey-wise the guy's got a 10 cent head and he's already getting paid and there's no place for him on this roster anymore.

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  28. Paper Designer,

    I'd give up on Brule before Cogs because Cogs has shown the ability to change his game. Brule still plays the way Brule did when he was drafted, when he was in Columbus, when he was in the A, when he first came here:

    He's fairly sloppy in his own zone, goes for the hit instead of the defensive play, then on the breakout he goes on the wing. If he's carrying the puck, he'll either dump it or get by the defender. If he gets by, he blasts it. 2-on-1? Still blasts it. 3-on-1? Still blasts it. Puck goes high and wide, or at best off the blocker.

    His shooting we can work on, but his on-ice IQ is weak and he hasn't made much development there.

    Cogs, meanwhile, doesn't make the big hit, isn't ferocious along the boards, and is bad on face-offs. BUT! He positions himself soundly, takes up passing lanes, doesn't get exposed on odd-man rushes, and is a valuable PKer.

    The most effective defenders aren't big hitters. They're finesse guys. See: Datsyuk, Pavel, and Lidstrom, Nicklas.

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  29. @ Paper designer

    2 histories

    Injury history
    production history

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