Why then do I get the feeling that the Oiler fanbase views Couturier as the modern Doug Wickenheiser?
Saw. him. good.
Couturier did not impress many at the World Junior championships. I think it's a lesson in what must be the most dangerous thing in scouting: too much emphasis on one viewing. Couturier had no control over how he was used and he certainly did not have the kind of WJ's enjoyed by people like Taylor Hall in their draft year.
If I was trying to prove Couturier remained the best prospect on the 2011 list, where would I start. I believe the best way to do this is by laying groundwork based on past entry drafts. If certain things were true a year ago, two years ago, five years ago, then surely it would weigh heavily on one's decision for this coming season.
Right?
Gabriel Desjardins is a smart guy. His NHL equivalncies teach us that the average Canadian junior retains 29% of the CHL offense when making the transition. 29% seems somewhat random, but the man has run the numbers and honestly it's kind of eerie how well this toy works. Why just last season he told us that Taylor Hall had the highest offensive outer marker, that Jeff Skinner could score 20 goals and that Cam Fowler was miles ahead of other junior defensemen. He also told us about those two Russian kids too. It's all here.
All at no cost to us the consumer. I'd like to buy Gabe a beer one day, that would be cool. Maybe the night San Jose wins the Stanley and the Oakland Seals finally make the grade.
With that as the backdrop, here are the NHLE's for the top 30 ISS players for the 2011 draft (per 82gp).
FORWARDS
- Ryan Strome (#9) 15-23-38
- Sean Couturier (#1) 12-25-37
- Gabriel Landeskog (#4) 19-16-35
- Matt Peumpel (#12) 16-17-33
- Sven Bartschi (#26) 14-18-32
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (#2) 6-26-32
- Alexander Khokhlachev (#14) 13-18-31
- Ty Rattie (#30) 10-21-31
- Daniel Catenacci (#29) 13-17-30
- Joel Armia (#7) 18-10-28
- Brandon Saad (#5) 15-12-27
- Mark McNeill (#15) 10-17-28
- Shane McGolgan (#25) 9-19-28
- Vladislav Namestnikov (#19) 8-15-23
- Tomas Jurko (#22) 11-11-22
- Colin Jacobs (#27) 10-8-18
Interesting numbers for Couturier as well as Strome and Landeskog. We have a long way to go, but I think those three names might end up being the class of the draft. Their NHLE's are similar to Tarasenko and Skinner from a year ago. Not Taylor Hall-Steven Stamkos levels, but these kids are going to have an impact at the highest levels.
DEFENSE
- Ryan Murphy (#6) 12-23-35
- Dougie Hamilton (#11) 3-18-22
- Adam Larsson (#3) 2-16-18
- Myles Bell (#17) 7-9-16
- Duncan Siemens (#8) 2-12-14
- David Musil (#13) 3-10-13
Based on these numbers, Ryan Murphy might be the most underrated player in this draft. Lordy. He is the reincarnation of Reijo Ruotsalianen.
Based on all these numbers, my current top 5 are:
- Sean Couturier
- Gabriel Landeskog
- Adam Larsson
- Ryan Murphy
- Ryan Strome
Yeah, Ryan Murphy caught my attention early this season. I just looked at the stats and called him the potential black sheep or steal of the draft.
ReplyDeleteThen I saw him play on the tube. In my professional blogger never-played-hockey eye, I'd say the lower end for him is Derek Morris. What really caught my attention is how quickly he makes decisions and passes, even 5 on 5. He receives the pass and already knows where he's going with it. It's not a constant effect, but enough that I noticed it.
Other than that, he'll add nicely to our smurf line-up.
Special is Landeskog.
ReplyDelete'Sphere regular SumOil has been tracking these stats for us over at C&B -
Landeskog has 48 points in 32 games , but 37 of those are at even strength. 37 ES points in 32 games. Murphy is a special power play player, but Landeskog is a monster at ES. He's the only draft eligible prospect at 1+ ES points per game. Just amazing.
oh oh, cue the "have you seen RNH?" talk.
ReplyDeletenice work LT. these lists always make me wish that it was easier to watch juniors on the tube. in the nba i can see all the prospects play every weekend on the TV, because the NCAA...
FWIW a while back Don Cherry said he thought Murphy would go #1 in the draft.
ReplyDeleteTaylor Hall in the post-game interview after the Vancouver loss:
ReplyDelete"It is tricky playing with Alex Hemsky."
Hemsky is a square peg, and the Oilers have a bunch of round pegs as high end prospects.
Do you stunt the development of the round pegs if your established top peg is a square peg? Are the round pegs supposed to adjust to the square peg, or is the square peg supposed to adjust to the round pegs? Shouldn't the franchise be focusing on playing his game and developing his game, than adjusting his game to the square peg?
Hemsky led power plays have been in the bottom half of the league almost always. Even with another truly elite player, Pronger, it was only middle of the pack.
How will Hemsky adapt/react when it comes time to shift to a Hall centred PP rather than a Hemsky centred PP?
LT: JW had articles on the 1999 to 2001 draft and the Boxcars combined with +- have a better correlation with NHL success than the scouting's rankings.
ReplyDeleteSay what you want but looking at kids with only the boxcars isn't as bad as it sounds.
I've always believed a kid has 99% chance of not beating his draft year numbers in the NHL, and so far only a few prooved me wrong, and usually by slight margin. Tough there's some blacksheeps. (Lucic).
I think because of the complexity of hockey it's one of the disciplines where projections on ''Mr Upsides'' has the less goodies coming back. If you haven't figured out how to maximise your stuff in the Juniors, probabilities are that you never will.
Excellent piece of work LT!
ReplyDeleteLike Landeskog but then we have no 1C or stud Dman but if the cupboard is full like we all believe maybe we trade for one. Wait we would need a GM with an eye for talent and balls!
Ah well there is always next years lottery
godot,
ReplyDeleteDo you have to bring that shit into every thread?
*******
I'm with coachpb. 5v5 scoring is king and Landeskog has separated himself from the pack in this regard.
Lord knows the Oilers are deep at the wing, but do you not draft a great player simply because he's not a current "need"
BPA please.
In Stu We Trust.
Amen.
Btw I think it should be interesting to add this guy:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=122625
He's 6''1 and would now slot right under Couturier in that NHLE ranking.
He's a HUGE late bloomer.
CoachPB:
ReplyDeleteFalse.
My boy above Jonathan Huberdeau, has 57 ES points in 40 games.
Well even his running mate (Zack Phillips) who is also draft eligible has 48 ES in 40 games.
ReplyDelete@ Flamingpavelbure
ReplyDeleteyou should have checked out the link. your boy Huberdeau has 38 ES point as of monday. Coach is right Landeskog is the only one who has a higher p/g at ES.
LT,
Doug Hamilton shouldnt be close behind. He is 6'4 and a physical specimen with almost as much ES production as murphy. Also he turns 18 late in Juune so this is essentially his 17 yr old season.
Also its great to finally see RNH off the top 5 rankings. People who watch him love him a lot. However his production is underwhelming.
ReplyDelete@ flamingpavelbure
ReplyDeleteJW's articles never say numbers> scouts. What he is saying that numbers should also be given importance and the whole cliche that scouts dont look at numbers should not hold anymore.
LT,
ReplyDeleteI must agree with FPB with regards to Jonathan Huberdeau
He is extremely underrated right now. He is leading his team Saint John with 65 points, 2nd in all of Q in scoring and also he is 17 and like hamilton he will turn 18 only in June. Of course he is not a lottery calibre pick, but stacks up well against players like Rattie/Puempel.
sorry fr spamming..
ReplyDeleteFPB:
Zach Phillips
has 22 ppp with 12 ppg and 10 ppa
1 shg
so he has 37 esp in 40 games.
SumOil: Pertinent information is not spamming. :-)
ReplyDelete@ Sum
ReplyDeleteI really don't understand everyones hate on RNH, outside of the fact that he is somewhat small and has slightly lacking EVS production.
I admit to being a person whe sees RNH a lot (and am subsequently very impressed with him). He reminds me a lot of Tyler Seguin, in that he has the offensive ability of a top pick but plays on a worse team than those ranked ahead of him.
For instance last night against the Pats, every time RNH hopped over the boards, Brandon Davidson and his partner, (as well as Regina's top line) played against him. Even drawing the toughs, RNH drove the bus for Rebels all night long. By my count RNH was directly responsible for approx 60% of the Rebels scoring chances last night. That's impressive for any youngster.
You don't get ranked consensus #2, in spite of where your offense is, with out a reason.
LT:
Strome is interesting, his numbers are very good for a 17year old, but I don't know if he'll manage to break the top 5. It's just a hard position to get to after being ranked in the 20's going into the midterm. He should be interesting to watch.
I don't know where all this depth on wing comes from. LW, yes. RW, no. Only 3 of them in the system.
ReplyDeleteLandeskog looks like a great pick. Right there with the top guys in NHLE. Has the most goals. Most points at evens. Good size. Mean streak. Leader. Most ready...
The one concern seems to be his upside, that he has no top end skill... but he has such a beautiful range of skills...
Woodlief recently had this to say about Couturier:
ReplyDeleteWe couldn't help but raise an eyebrow after Sean Couturier's agent, Gilles Lupien, took the unusual position of denying all media access to his client, with the exception of league mandated postgame interviews. Lupien argues that it's better for Couturier's stress level to stay free and clear of all media responsibilities until Christmas.
But this is 2010 and handling the spotlight is just part of the package for anyone who wants to be considered a potential franchise player. Sending the message that you might not be mentally tough enough to handle that responsibility raises a flag that a top prospect should go out of his way to avoid.
And we're not buying the argument that Couturier had no say in the matter. Yes, we understand that a client needs to have faith in the advice he gets from his representation. But he's also got a QMJHL general manager for a father and a brain of his own. Just because Lupien tells him it's a good idea, it doesn't mean he has to go along with it. All he had to do was ask himself what would Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin or Steve Stamkos have done in my situation? The answer is: Accept every invitation possible to prove you can handle the spotlight and the responsibilities that go with being a potential franchise player and No. 1 pick. It's a pretty simple, proven formula.
Now, unfortunately, the kid is going to have a lot of explaining to do at the combine and in virtually every interview he does —with both reporters and scouts —right up until the draft. Now that might cause him some stress.
Alon, Redline has Landeskog at #2 and RNH at #3. So not consensus, but close.
ReplyDeleteI couldn't take another smurf though, especially one that has so few goals and relies on PP time to score in his league. We have enough PP specialist passers.
LT, you magnificent drafter, you. Well done, I have to defer to your picks. Heck, if your picks start to turn out better than MBS, maybe we should give you the job as head scout. I like Couturiers size, hard not to be good when you have a bit of talent combined with all that size...at least this year if the Oilers fall to 5th overall pick, we will still get a beautie.
ReplyDelete@ Adam
ReplyDeleteSee most of the game is played at EV. Hence ES production is considered important.
Furthermore, it is a good assumption to make that other top prospects like Strome/Landeskog would also be seeing the toughs at least on the road.
As far as your comparison to Seguin goes, Seguin was much more productive at ES.
JW wrote an article early last year where he compared Hall/Seguin to top picks from precious draft. I will find it and post the link. I think you will like it.
As far as you concern about Strome moving up the draft board, check out where Johansson was ranked early last season. And to lesser extent prospects like Nino, Skinner et al. With some real solid production , a player can always get the consideration of a top draft pick
Woodlief had this to say about Landeskog:
ReplyDeleteShortly after Red Line moved Gabriel Landeskog up to No. 2 overall on our list this month, we were told by two teams (one Eastern Conference and one Western Conference) that they have Landeskog at No. 1 overall on their lists. Don't be surprised to see the big Swedish power winger selected among the top two overall next June.
http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2010/01/08/how-do-hall-and-seguin-compare-with-other-top-ten-picks/
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2010/01/08/how-do-hall-and-seguin-compare-with-other-top-ten-picks-part-ii/
There were a couple of charts which are not opening on my browser for some reason.
LT
ReplyDeletethanks
LT:
ReplyDeleteWe went around in circles the other day on this but there's one line in your post that echoes exactly my feeling on this draft class. SC (and some others) project to be fine players but we are likely looking at the weakest best forward drafted in the top 3 since JP Dumont in 1996:
Here they are:
-Hall
-Tavares
-Stamkos
-Kane
-Toews (E. Johnson at #1)
-Crosby
-Ovechkin
-E. Staal (Fleury at #1)
-Nash
-Kovalchuk
-Sedin (Stefan at #1...oops)
-Lecavalier
-Thornton
I'm seeing a bunch of guys that'd be good solid picks at #4 but nothing truly elite.
KT makes a valid point and trading down has to be considered.
ReplyDeleteWould anyone trade the #2 overall for BOS' two 1st rounders? Take Hamilton, or Strome. And have a pick in the mid 20s.
Or, OTOH, what would you give the Devils to have the 1st overall and guarantee Couturier?
Or stand pat and take Landeskog?
The first scenario seems to play to the characteristics of the draft--low top end but lots of depth.
Trading down makes sense.
ReplyDeleteThen the Oilers draft for their biggest need and find a kid from an Ivy League team with a 4.0 GPA in Sports Management and give him Tambeloweni's job immediately.
Pushing some highly-rated b-school rookie into the deep end can't be worse than what we have.
The ES # do seem like a differentiator to hold on to, but they still only help rank the forwards.
Say the Devs finish last, take SC. Should the Oil be willing to offer the 2nd overall for either Schenn or Johansen?
ReplyDeleteSay the Devs finish last, take SC. Should the Oil be willing to offer the 2nd overall for either Schenn or Johansen?
ReplyDeleteWhy would LA or CLB make that trade?
You throwing something good in to go with it?
SumOil: Well the QJMHL site fooled me. It said 8 for Hub and something like 12 for Phillips.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I believe those kids will crack the 1st round projection at D-day.
yeah thats goals and not points on that website
ReplyDeleteCoachPB:
ReplyDeleteFalse.
My boy above Jonathan Huberdeau, has 57 ES points in 40 games.
I know you make a living here out of being a contrarian, but you arguing prospect situational scoring with SumOil is like you arguing astrophysics with Neil degrasse Tyson.
He's right. You're wrong.
LT and pat are here, and I imagine Dennis is lurking - I need an answer to a question:
ReplyDeleteWhat is the minimum temperature and windspeed in which you can still pee outside when you're drinkings sodas?
Bob Mackenzie's pre-season draft report. Packed full of info, including the breadth of disagreement over the back end of the Top 10 by 10 NHL scouts.
ReplyDeleteNo one here wants Larsson? If SC goes?
I saw RNH play in the Oil Kings season opener. He was creating offense every shift, and was a great playmaker on the powerplay. I believe he scored 2 goals that day, both on the powerplay.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I'm not entirely comfortable drafting him unless we drop 3-4 spots due to several red flags:
1. Has difficulty scoring goals. Only 10 this year so far - how many top 5 forward picks end up scoring less than 20?
2. Size. Pretty self explanatory.
3. EV scoring is an issue. This simply cannot be discounted, especially when the surface numbers aren't all that impressive to begin with.
________
Landeskog appears that he'll be an impact player. Again, BPA, not team needs. Address team needs via free agency or trades - but don't pass on the better player now to fill a team need that may or may not be present 3 years down the road.
On a side note, anyone some disturbed by Larsson's lack of offensive production? I lament taking defencemen in the first round.
@Sspoiler
ReplyDeleteIf Horcoff is back within 10 days, I think the Oilers draft at 3 overall. If that's the case, I'm quite sure they're taking Landeskog.
NJ - Couturier
NYI - Larsson
EDM - Landeskog
CBJ - Murphy
OTT - Hopkins
P.S.
ReplyDeletePaajarvi - Lander - Landeskog
Early line nickname is "The Pillagers".
If Horcoff is back within 10 days, I think the Oilers draft at 3 overall
ReplyDeleteHave you checked our remaining schedule?
It's not pretty.
WG,
ReplyDeleteI have no idea if they would. It is a better pick than what they used. Would you offer it to see? One of them may covet Larsson or Landeskog... LA might be interested in pushing the pick back a year as they don't really have a spot for Schenn except on the 4th. I wouldnt be offering a sweetener till I knew more and wouldn't offer more than a 5th as talks deepened. Maybe go a little more for Johansen.
Have you checked our remaining schedule?
ReplyDeleteYou play?
Yes, I've looked, but Columbus is in a freefall and has a similarly brutal schedule. The Islanders are riding the percentages right now and will come down again. The Devils need to play 90 point hockey from here out to tie the Oilers playing 68 point hockey.
I ask yet again... how does drafting a RW not fill a team need? If Landeskog is the best available and we're holding on to the pick, I am delighted.
ReplyDeleteI think it is a good bet that Oilers draft at 3rd overall. There are the isles who are ridind some percentages. Devils who cant win a game and CBJ who are having a much worse time than the Oilers. So 3rd overall is very likely.
ReplyDeleteAt 3rd overall there should be no debate and then its Landeskog time
@ coach
ReplyDeleteI swear i did not see your comment before posting mine..lol
@ Spoiler
ReplyDeleteRW depth is not a concern. Many centers end up playing wing. At the Nhl level we have Hemsky Eberle Brule at RW. Penner and MPS who play either wing. Of course we dont have much RW prospects in the farm, but then we wont be sending Landeskog there would we? RW depth can be addressed via later picks. You dont need to specifically draft a RW. The 'need' which Landeskog covers is the physical player who is good enough to be in top 6.
CoachPb: I didn't argue anything with him. I tought the QJMHL site listed points not goals on the PP. He then corrected me and I admitted fault.
ReplyDeleteYou're like Mass Media. You just invent a conflict when there's none.
That'd be tough for me to be always wrong because I generally share his opinion.
Btw: Piss' piss, it'l freeze at the same temperature as regular piss.
spOILer,
ReplyDeleteI guess you never know, but at first look Schenn and Johansen are better than anything available this year, and are already a year closer to the NHL.
LA has Poni, Handzus, Williams and Sturm coming off this year and they are in real danger of not making the playoffs, they need help sooner than later.
CBJ is a basketcase. Who knows what Howson will do to try to save his job. Really depends on if ownership is somewhat savvy and if he needs their permission to pull the trigger on something like this.
But like LA, they need help sooner rather than later.
If only these were all certainties.
ReplyDeleteWithout Whitney we can finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th last. The Sens can plummet too.
I'm not sure the advantage of pinning that placement down now; we'll know a lot better at the deadline and again beyond.
And considering the disagreement over the picks among polled scouts, Woodlief, CSS etc, it might be best not to lock in any assumptions as to whom teams might pick.
I hope things work out the way you guys have laid it out, but we can say very little with confidence at this stage. It's speculation.
The 'need' which Landeskog covers is the physical player who is good enough to be in top 6.
ReplyDeleteNailed it. Well done.
I love James Neal of the Stars and Landeskog looks like James Neal with more offense.
Woodguy: Landeskog's outscoring Johansen and he's one year younger.
ReplyDeleteThe Oilers can finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th.
ReplyDeleteThat said, not really afraid of Columbus finishing below the Oilers. 10 points is alot to catch up, and they have been reasonably competitive in their games.
The Islanders are a coin flip in my opinion. They weren't as bad as they were during their lengthy losing streak - now we're just seeing the balancing of the ledger. Okposo will be back soon, and Streit may be back by February. They also have a 17-22 home/road game split thus far. The Oilers are conversely at 21-19, with the easy portion of the schedule essentially been completed.
More so the east that concerns me. Any one of Florida, Toronto, Ottawa are too close within proximity at this point (38, 36, 38 vs 33 points to the Oilers).
Who knows what will happen though. That's why we play them games.
The problem with wingers is not too much depth, but not enough cap space.
ReplyDeleteIt is pretty difficult to fill other holes if you have 3+ wingers wanting $5 million dollar contracts which is where the Oilers will be if their young guys pan out. Pretty hard to put a solid team together if your money is all tied up in the least important position in hockey.
I like Larsson if he makes it to the Oilers. I really don't see any flaws with this guy. While his NHLE isn't great, I don't think its too far off Doughty's at all, and that didn't stop Doughty from putting up numbers.
Even if the numbers are never gaudy for Larsson, he should still be a heck of a defenceman for the next 20 years.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSum oil said...
ReplyDeleteRW depth is not a concern. Many centers end up playing wing. At the Nhl level we have Hemsky Eberle Brule at RW. Penner and MPS who play either wing. Of course we dont have much RW prospects in the farm, but then we wont be sending Landeskog there would we? RW depth can be addressed via later picks. You dont need to specifically draft a RW. The 'need' which Landeskog covers is the physical player who is good enough to be in top 6.
Agree, wholeheartedly with the last statement. I've said the same myself.
Not sure the relevance putting GL on the farm has to do with anything at this point. It doesn't change the depth chart much at RW.
Sure centres can move to wing. Some work, some don't... Penner and MPS at this point have played the large majority of their career at LW, and switching is not ideal as Oiler fans have seen in the past with othr wingers. Nor have we seen them enough there to make that assumption. Centres also best make the switch to RW when they're RHers and we don't exactly have a plethora of these RH centres. Not saying these things couldn't happen but right now those possibilities have not registered on the depth chart.
Which at this point has a Hemsky not under extension, Eberle, a flailing Brule and finally the coach's top love, Stortini. Rajala and MacDonald in the cupboard. That's an absolute paucity of natural RWers. Surely that can be said with little dispute. It should be A concern.
And what blows me away is the love for Landeskog yet the denial for a need for a RWer. Seems so counter-productive. I'm not saying it is THE biggest need. But it does add to the depth chart's balance. Why can we not rejoice in the possibility of landing Landeskog?
fpv,
ReplyDeleteAre you saying that Landeskog is more ready for the NHL than Johansen?
Woodguy: Maybe, maybe not. Just that you said they look better than anything available this year.
ReplyDeleteI have difficulty with that since he's getting outscored by two 17 years old on his own team.
I still like Larsson and have said why on a couple of occasions already.
ReplyDeleteWith imperfect information, when the alternatives are all less than ideal, select the one with greater uncertainty as it is more likely to still pay off big. See 1993 for reference. Pronger was drafted between Daigle and Chris Gratton.
Knew there had to be some Larsson love out there. I have no trouble with taking Larsson if that's the guy MBS wants. Some have him rated better than Hedman, some don't. Not a lot of downside... big body, skates, scores, could hit more.
ReplyDeleteCoach: When I was a young man freezing temps and high winds made no difference. The key was to make sure one of your friends was down wind. :-)
ReplyDeleteNOW I stop every chance I get, so those days are done. :-)
I'd estimate a long pee would be the order of the day, so anything below freezing (combined with any wind at all) is going to have an impact.
Having said that, if there are no alternatives then there are no alternatives. Been there, done that.
One warning with Puempel is his -24 +/-
ReplyDeleteAlmost all of the Petes are in the red though.
@ Spoiler
ReplyDeleteThe thing is that at the NHL level we do have adequate number of RW.
@ Woodguy
LA being at number 8 spot is an indication that their record doesnt show that they are actually a pretty good team. They are 3rd in the conference with their goal differential and again 3rd in the conference in games decided with 2 or more goals. They have lost many 1 goal games which is not really an indication of anything but sometimes luck.
@ PunjabiOil
I am not concerned by the lack of production at WJC. Rarely you see D men who are in their draft year to make a huge impact in that tournament. What kinda bothered me was that he was more passive in his play. Rather than going in to the corners he preferred to go in front of the net to foil any pass to the center to get rid of people from the front of the net. Though it is very good strategy, I was expecting some aggression from him. It might have just been the role given to him by his coach. Hence making observations from this tournament of small sizes invalid. But bottomline I am not concerned. The guy is on pace for about 15 points in his SEL season without getting much PP time as an 18 year old. Thats not bad at all for a top 2 pick.
I have difficulty with that since he's getting outscored by two 17 years old on his own team.
ReplyDeleteI may have been talking out my ass a little.
Via pt/gm they are only marginally outscoring him, and I think they are his linemates.
Bartschi was born 40 days after Johansen, not sure how he's a 17 year old.
Contrary to what some posters say, for me, Larsson (finally) did not disappoint in the WJHC.
ReplyDeleteCoutourier on the other hand...
Power Meter Based on NHL Games' Scores has Oilers #29
ReplyDeleteI'll be happy with any of the top 4 to be honest. If Larsson is the player I'll be fine with it.
ReplyDelete//I know you make a living here out of being a contrarian, but you arguing prospect situational scoring with SumOil is like you arguing astrophysics with Neil degrasse Tyson.//
ReplyDeleteThis is the Farside moment where the kid is trying to get in the school for brilliant. The door says pull. The kid is pushing.
Triarchic theory of intelligence: A moment of proof.
Landeskog 18 yr old season
Courtier 18 yr old season
Huberdeau 17 yr old season
Way to look at the micro stats.
Keep pushing on the door.
They are 3rd in the conference with their goal differential and again 3rd in the conference in games decided with 2 or more goals. They have lost many 1 goal games which is not really an indication of anything but sometimes luck.
ReplyDeleteMaybe winning all those games by more than 2 goals has skewed their goal diff to look better than the team is? Pummeling the weak and losing squeakers to the strong?
The West is super tight and their 4 game losing streak put them back to 6th in the conference via pts %
Even with their good underlying numbers, some teams they are in the race with are real. PHX for example has a much better record vs. WEST than LA and has shit the bed against the EAST.
Here's the West as of this morning:
VAN .732
DET .702
DAL .631
NSH .610
STL .575
LAK .573
PHX .573
MIN .573
************
COL .571
SJS .560
CHI .547
ANA .545
CLB .512
CAL .476
EDM .413
5-9 are virtually tied and 9 and 10 are teams that were picked to win their division earlier in the season.
I like them to make it, but they're not a slam dunk.
Should read that teams 10-11 were picked to win their divisions.
ReplyDeleteNeed an edit key.
SumOil,
ReplyDeleteThe thing is, having just enough RWers to cover the NHL level is a very dangerous place to be.
You will learn this as you gain experience dealing with injuries, trade demands, performance that falls off a cliff, flexibility moving forward and development time.
When there's an opportunity to take a BPA who rectifies this imbalance, it looks foolish to deny the need for no reason--but keep on doing so if you like.
Myself, I will be a little sad that we didn't get a top C or an elite D, but very happy the BPA wasn't another bloody LWer or smurfette.
My thoughts are that the Oilers are probably realistically looking for a playoff push for the 2012 season--assuming the Mayan Calendar predictions are wrong. :p
ReplyDeleteNext year, the Oilers could potentially make the playoffs--depending heavily on player health, savvy offseason moves by Toonces (not likely), and Katz spending to the cap.
For 2012, we'll be in the final ELC year of the H(O)PE contracts assuming 3 or 4 are still here. (exception being Omark whose contract ends in 11-12)
By then, Horcov, will be starting the season at 34 and might well then turn into the coveted 3rd line checking center who can win a draw we've all be waiting for :p
We can assume that at least one of Hemsky or Penner will be gone by then too for cap reasons.
If Horcoff's offense further dries up by then, he might be in a 3C role. Gagner will either be 2C or 1C if the light goes on by then. He'll be on a new contract if he's here that year either way.
That won't leave much for another center, so we'd likely be in need of someone on an ELC to field a competitive team.
Depending on Horcov's health and Gagner's development, I'm not surge that Gagner/Horcov/Lander will take us to the promised land.
Thoughts:
For the 2012 season are we still going to be talking about the need at 3C or will that shift up in the food chain?
It looks like some consideration for the need at center will have to be made via draft or trade.
Contrary to what some posters say, for me, Larsson (finally) did not disappoint in the WJHC.
ReplyDeleteWhen you consider he was playing with a groin problem, his play was even more impressive.
I like him too.
I like SC, GL and AL.
Given that I think the Oilers finish 29th, they'll have a crack at one of these 3.
This season, David Conte is likely to pick first.
ReplyDeleteIf there is a superior prospect, he's probably gonna pick him.
@ Woodguy
ReplyDeleteWill you please let me know where you read about his injury? I thought he played like he was in pain. I attributed that to the Kassian/Foligno hit he got early in the tournament. But I wasnt too convinced with my own explanation
Woodguy, my thoughts exactly. I think it would be tough to go wrong with any of the three. I think SC is the least closest to playing in the NHL, but would provide us with that wonderfully talented big body C.
ReplyDeleteRickibear, SumOil did give Huburdeau some love above. For me, well, scouts says he's going to be small all his life and thus I don't see him cracking the top 10... and besides I am all smurfed out.
Larsson's Groin Injury
ReplyDeleteLarsson played and was Sweden's player of the game.
May have already been posted here but the difference this year between, say, 1-6 might be slight. So, stating the obvious, finishing DFL might not be as important as last year. Having said that remember when the talk on this blog was about the present and not the future. Sure miss those days.
ReplyDeleteYeah west is extremely tight.
ReplyDeleteBut this is the clear victories standings i think as of today.
Vancouver Canucks (16-5, .762)
Detroit Red Wings (13-6, .684)
Los Angeles Kings (12-8, .600)
Chicago Blackhawks (9-6, .600)
Colorado Avalanche (7-6, .538)
Dallas Stars (9-8, .529)
Nashville Predators (9-8, .529)
Minnesota Wild (8-8, .500)
Anaheim Ducks (8-9, .471)
San Jose Sharks (9-11, .450)
St. Louis Blues (7-9, .438)
Calgary Flames (7-10, .412)
Phoenix Coyotes (6-9, .400)
Columbus Blue Jackets (6-12, .333)
Edmonton Oilers (5-10, .333)
"And now this is what Scott said:
But another element of luck is winning one-goal games. Good teams have a tendency to win more often by two or more goals, whereas poor teams struggle to do that. On top of that, there's almost no correlation from season-to-season in a team's ability to win one-goal games. That's one of the reasons that goal differential is often a better indicator of team quality than standings points. "
http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=188&mode=print
This is Gabe's work on one goal games.
Even though point percentage has them 6th, that along with their GD and clear victories shouldnt have them that worried.
Of course they have enjoyed much success against the East, but they havent been that bad against the west either. Furthermore, I also their road record is pretty bad and I see no reason to doubt that it would improve
We all know that Dallas is riding some crazy percentages and probably due some losing streak here or there. I think that LA is the strongest team in that division and it should slowly get clear as things go along. I dont see them get impatient specially under Dean Lombardi who is a fine GM and a very patient one at that.
Spoiler lok At video of him. He is slight. But You see him @ about 5'10 and the next year he is about 6'1".
ReplyDeleteDepending hpw thicK mom and dad are we probably have a case of a young man need to thicken to his growth.
when you whatch some of the goals. Drive to the net. In front of the net. And Clutch.
ReplyDelete@ Deano
ReplyDeleteThanks
@ Spoiler
I see what you mean with the injury and stuff, but I am not still sold on drafting RW based on the need of RW. Maybe with more experience i will see your point.
About Huberdeau, he has one of the p/g numbers among draft prospects. He is 6'1 so not really small. He is lean but not small. Another 20 pounds and he is similar to Ales Hemsky. I dont see him cracking the top 5, but I will be disappointed if he is not drafted in the 8-13 slot
Of course we dont have much RW prospects in the farm, but then we wont be sending Landeskog there would we?
ReplyDeleteGiven that we're breaking in 4-5 rookies this year and that there are a few guys in the AHL knocking on the door I'm not sure why we would assume any of this years draft picks will jump to the NHL for us. Hall is covering the bet but if the top end talent this year is reduced it seems to fair to consider that our top pick won't play with the big club next year.
And if coach were drinking beers he'd have his beer jacket on for protection, but sodas will provide no immunity. But like LT said, if you gotta go you gotta go.
@ Geowal
ReplyDeleteTop end draft picks hardly see any time in the A. Why do you assume he ends up spending next season in the Nhl, if he is not in the Nhl, then most certainly he will be back in Ohl.
SumOil, where have I said go after the RW because thats what we need the most? I'm laughing at your strenuous attempts to deny the depth chart could use some balance on starboard all because (originally) Bruce said so. And pointing out to others who seem to lament that GL might be the BPA but too bad RW is not an organizational need when it is quite evidently one of many.
ReplyDeleteThe line I've heard on Huburdeau is he is never going to be big and strong. The slightest of builds. Sparrow-chested. Just not in the conversation where we are drafting.
SumOil said...
ReplyDeleteTop end draft picks hardly see any time in the A. Why do you assume he ends up spending next season in the Nhl, if he is not in the Nhl, then most certainly he will be back in Ohl.
Read his post. He's not assuming it at all. He's talking about the assumption you made earlier in the thread.
@ Spoiler
ReplyDeleteI am not defending that position because Bruce said so. I am for drafting Landeskog. I have been rooting for him for s long time now. I myself said that Bruce is not right about it.
This is what I said:
Bruce mentioned that the Winger cupbord is full. However I disagree. We need players like Landeskog more than ever now. He is bullish, strong and has enough offense in his game to be a lottery pick.
I think we are on the same page. While I agree that we are think on RW, i am saying is that its not that important. I also said that maybe you are right and I am too inexperienced to understand it. I am willing to let it go.
While I agree that JH is not in the same league as players we will pick, but as long as we are discussing Gabe's equivalencies, there is no harm in posting that.
Sum,
ReplyDeleteI'm familiar with Gabe's work on clear victories and I agree that LAK are a good team, better than most in the West.
However, this is Gary Bettman's NHL and points % determines the final standings and he gives out a lot of points.
My position that LAK are not going to walk into a playoff spot stands.
A couple of good teams are going to miss the playoffs in the West this year.
//1. Has difficulty scoring goals. Only 10 this year so far - how many top 5 forward picks end up scoring less than 20?//
ReplyDeleteI am with you.
when players are equal take the goal scorer.
@ Spoiler
ReplyDeleteI made an error. I meant to say why do you assume I am saying He plays in the Nhl next season.
Thanks for notifying me
@WG
ReplyDeleteI guess. You are right.
I think its my personal bias towards LA which is making me bullish about their chances.
Sum: Where you said with reference to the farm "we won't be sending him there" I took that to mean you think he could jump to the NHL. Granted the farm isn't an option regardless as it's junior or nhl for him as you say.
ReplyDeleteMy point is simply that we might not have roster spots for 18 year old rookies next year unless they are exceptional, and that many are arguing this years draft crop is not.
Seeing so many guys near the 100 points mark, including a defenseman, there's no way in hell this is a weak draft. Seems a good bunch of the projections are outscoring theyr drafted counterparts in the same league.
ReplyDeleteWG: Well let's say, if I have the choice between Johansen and an extra pick in this draft, no contest.
Either go big for Landeskog, or try to get a pick around N10 and pick up Huberdeau. He plays Winger and Center. Maybe we can pick them up both (If we don't finish dead last), that would be big steals for the oil.
Geowal: The ''Many'' have prooved they don't really know that much.
ReplyDelete@ geowal
ReplyDeleteI see what you mean and why my original reply wouldnt make sense. Yeah I doubt if any of them make a jump sans SC/AL. For some reason teams have started to think that its a great idea to have your recently drafted player to start in the Nhl. I can see the logic behind playing someone like Hall/Tavares in the Nhl that they have nothing else to prove in the juniors. But then players like Seguin who would be better off playing in the juniors end up making a stacked team such as Bruins.
That said, I would rather see Landeskog sent back to juniors. He is already missing some time with significant injury.
I think we agree on this, framing the agreement on message boards is the tricky part.
ReplyDelete"The ''Many'' have prooved they don't really know that much."
ReplyDeleteHow is that? since I provided you with links to JW's articles, you have been criticizing the scouts a lot. Math has been wrong a lot too. One glaring example is Zach Hamill who lead the WHL in scoring in his draft year.
@ geowal
ReplyDeleteI hear you. and sometime little disagreements can lead to intense and long discussion!
Sumoil: I've been criticizing classic scouting for ever. Only now I have solid proof.
ReplyDeleteAnyway. If they tell it's a weak draft, how come all those kids do better, younger and in the same league?
Sum,
ReplyDeleteFor the record I think LAK make it and have a good shot at winning their division if they pick it up a bit.
Dallas is due to come back down to earth a bit.
Dallas vs. West 14-11-4
Dallas vs. East 10-2-1
They only play 5 more games against the East; ATL,PHI(2),BOS and NJD.
Mind you, they get the play the Oilers 3 times in the next 17 days, so you can pencil in 6 points there.
I don't think SJS makes the playoffs.
Woodguy: Agree. The Sharks have a ridiculous blueline.
ReplyDeleteAll of these players have better NHL equivalencies than J.F. Junk.
ReplyDeleteI thought Ryan Murphy wasn't eligible until the 2012 draft?
ReplyDeleteBetter call ISS. They have him for 2011:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=11963
Isn't the hardest position to trade for a #1 center?
ReplyDeleteIf that is true can we afford to bypass the best center with size?
Are we relying on MBS to work some more magic at the center position?
How much does need play into this years selection?
The standard for building a team framework is four top forwards, especially 2 dominating centers, 2 top defensemen and a goalie. Then come the secondary pieces. That would be the 3/4 defensemen and 2 forwards plus 3 line center, then fill as available. Otherwise you're in financial difficulty, now or later.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous: There's a Ryan Murray who is a highly touted 2012 draft prospect, in addition to Ryan Murphy, eligible this year.
ReplyDeleteYes, that is understandably confusing.
I can see both CHI and SJS not making it, which would be a stunning turn of events.
ReplyDeleteSumOil, agreed on Seguin. I have no idea what the Bruins are thinkin there, keeping him up.
And agreed on Huberdeau too, if it is only about NHLE. But, believe it or not, I wasn't disagreeing with you there, only stating I personally have no interest in him. My concern is we will take someone similar... RNH. I prefer Strome, although I wonder about the massive leap he has made year over year.
An interesting study might be made on projecting NHL careers by comparing guys who held a high but stagnant level of points against guys who took big jumps year over year.
And I am glad you accept we're thin at RW.
;op
Ian...
ReplyDeleteWe might not get a shot at Couturier. Judging by last draft's shenanigans, though, I can see The Braintrust making the Devs an offer to switch picks.
Spoiler: How are they similar?
ReplyDeleteAgreed on Strome, kid seems to be leading the pack on that Niagara team.
@ Woodguy and LT
ReplyDeleteagreed. SJS defense is damn thin. And then they are afraid to ride nittymaki who has clearly been better with ES sv% of .921
I thought that they would be bad last season, but somehow they ended up doing great. I guess Nabby having a career season and Blake's play helped them a lot.
Though it still is hard to believe that SJS might not make the playoffs. Their forward depth has helped them so far. Look for them to get some blue help back in exchange for their forwards
Even if the offense helps them to 8th they're dead in the water. San Jose is kind of a wonky team right now and eventually they're going to have to break up that wonderful F group in order to grab some real defensemen.
ReplyDeleteClowe is having an unreal season and his value might be the highest right now. Best time to trade!
ReplyDeleteThere have been rumblings linking them with TML.
FPB, I was thinking in terms of body types.
ReplyDeleteI like Bruce's Chris Gratton comparable for Coutourier.
ReplyDeleteI contend that that's not good enough to blow our brains out trying to acquire. If this draft does not have the obvious dominant #1C, don't force him into existence.
(The Dylan McIlrath argument - don't 'manage' things that can't be managed. Save your powder. Our braintrust makes this mistake all the time. they force their 'vision' onto reality rather than adapting their vision to reality.)
sjs wave niemi to pick up nabokov, and then chi-town claims niemi -- they meet in the western conference finals. theodore wins hart!
ReplyDeletebook it!
;)
@ Spoiler
ReplyDeleteHaha. finally we are in agreement!
@ FPB
Those articles are not proof of anything. The importance of scouts can never be stressed enough and JW himself said that math is just a tool and not a replacement.
@ woodguy
watch us beat Dallas 3 times in a row. LOL. I am excited. I remember a game from last season when Neal outmuscled every one on our team and was creating all kinds of time and space for his line-mates. If only we can have guys like him! I was secretly hoping against hope that STL doesnt resign Backes and Atl - Ladd and we sign them both! childish hopes
@ Deano
ReplyDeleteI have been saying for sometime that we dont need those monster point producing forwards. What we need is forwards who are gritty, defensively reliant and good enough to get the puck to our uber-talented wingers and let them do what they do. SC fits that bill perfectly
SumOil: Yeah, they're still just a tool. But at times it helps just clear away guys who are only in the conversation based on seen good, or at least moderate it.
ReplyDeleteToo much guys taken as reach picks due to Upsides.
Woodguy,
ReplyDeleteAre you sure Johansen is playing with the two young'uns? I had read somewhere they had Rattie and the Runt on the 2nd line, but that was in the season's early days.
Anyone know how Portland has their lines set up?
I'm not so sure the Couturier to Gratton comparison is valid. SC is out-performing Schenn and Johansen offensively at the same age (and did the year before, no?)
SumOil - so if he falls to us, fine. (Although I like AL and would take the, unknown to me, GL over SC.)
ReplyDeleteThink of all of the players sent away with the tagline that they never 'stepped up' into the role that the Oilers envisioned for them.
This is a symptom of not recognizing players for who they actually are (reality).
It can't be too early to have a beer, could it? Doesn't the football on the TV screen give me a free pass? How else can I bear the nearly incessant commercials?
ReplyDeleteSpoiler: It's 3:36 over here, Football's here. Have a cold one :P.
ReplyDelete@spoiler
ReplyDeleteSunday is the official day of "it's 5 o'clock somewhere!"
crack one!
TSSHHHHHHHHT!!!
ReplyDeleteI'm on board with the Coutourier sceptics. Did not see any outstanding skills. Then QHL is a weaker league, Big man size playing with boys, quality coaching prior etc. Top draft picks should demonstrate top end skills, working off size in the NHL is a non factor.
ReplyDeleteBOS: Lies. JW ran a test on top 10 picks, checking out who played 500 games or more.
ReplyDeleteThe OHL and WHL finished dead last, after the QJMHL came, and the Euro Leagues.
*Note that those count selections between 1993 and 2003.
ReplyDeletedamn cant watch the ATL CAR game anywhere
ReplyDelete2nd Note: That is on the purpose of drafting elite talent, not the general level of the league.
ReplyDeleteThe only thing I mean is that for Elite talent being from the Q doesn't seem to constitute a problem.
SumOil:
ReplyDeletehttp://atdhe.net/index.html
They're gettting to OT.
SumOil - http://www.alpha2zulu.net/a2z_channel_1.html
ReplyDeletethanks guys got it!
ReplyDeleteWhere as Strome in one of the videos, two on one, sells a pass and then has enough wrist strength to go upstairs, that's top end.
ReplyDeleteLots of fingertip pushups.
Bos8: Had an old time coach in Bantam, made us do ''The Brick'' where you have to lift a brick attached to a cord (And a stick) and you gotta roll the cord around the stick with only your wrist. Makes your wrist shot a hell of lot better.
ReplyDeleteThat and he hid steel pucks in the puck lot to make sure we always made crisp passes/receptions in practice.
I like Atlanta.
ReplyDeleteMy intial NHL knowledge came playing nhl05 with thrashers. Have liked them since then!
I especially like Enstrom a lot and Bogosian too. Bogosian and Oduya taking on such terrible ZS so that Enstrom and Big Buff can do what they do. That Estrom guy is something. What a steal!
SumOil: The only problem is that it's theyr only steal lol :P.
ReplyDeleteSo much of theyr core comes from outside the org. (And damn, Anthony Stewart ? What a career revival)
Speculation is Beauchamin going to SJS for Setegouchi, although that's been denied a few times. I'd rather have Pavelski, but he's probably not tall enough for Burkie.
ReplyDeleteWonder if either side would consider Couture for Schenn?
Blake ate up a lot of tough minutes for SJS last year and they haven't replaced that. Guy was a machine even with grey in his beard.
Not sure positive how Portland sets their lines so can't say for sure. Will look at some 5v5 scoring to make inferences, but I thought those 3 played together.
WG: Tough I think they mentionned a couple of times that Johansen and Niederreiter played together. Might be wrong.
ReplyDelete@ Woodguy
ReplyDeletei can help you with that
Rattie plays a lot with Bartschi. Centers keep changing and hecne there was a lot of talk about them trading for schenn.
Johansson has played with nino and Ross most of the time.
@ Woogguy
ReplyDeleteWhat is the rationale behind Schenn for Couturier?
Also I am guessing you are/were a leafs fan that you want SJS parting with Pavelski. Pavelski has been the guy taking on tough competition. I on the other hand wouldnt like TML win any trade lol. I dont think they should get rid of JP. he is damn important to them. What is kind of concerning is that mediocre production from the Thornton line
Thanks guys.
ReplyDeleteThere you go fpb, Nino is dragging Johansen down. :)
Have a lot of respect for Howson but his job MUST be on the line by now.Desperate guys do desperate things. I expect we could get Johanneson if we made it worth their while right now. Think it would take one of Hemsky or Penner to get it done and I realize that is a pretty high price but do we have faith in any of the centers in this draft developing into a # 1C maybe it is worth it.
ReplyDeleteNot sure if memory is right but I thought Johanneson was the other top ten pick that MBS loved. Was it someone else? Does anyone else recall if he was the one
Johansen without Nino
ReplyDelete9G 3-8-11
With Nino
23G 14-12-26
So I think his production has been fairly consistent. He has improved over last season, but I would have liked to see some more. However he showed a lot of talent and grit in the WJC and may go on a tear after coming back
The other john,
ReplyDeleteJust watched the first episode of Oil change again and yes, Johansen was one of the players Stu talked about. He was talking about players that would be worth a trade for at the draft. Mentioned Skinner as well. Said "hes too much of a goal scorer to overlook"
WG: I'm a fan of neither. I just doubt they have another gear.
ReplyDeleteThey still have the end of the season and the next year to proove me wrong. (In Junior)
SumOil: True, tough WJC always seem to be a bit touchy.
Sum,
ReplyDeleteHow are you getting W/WO for WHL players?
oh...nino missed the first 9 games of the season. Thats all. Nothing fancy lol
ReplyDeleteI would do whatever it takes to get schenn from LA. I love what Hemsky can do, but injury history scares me a bit. Hemsky for Schenn helps both teams and allows us to draft a dman to fill out our needs.
ReplyDeleteHall-Horcoff-Eberle
Penner-Gagner-Omark
Hamilton-Schenn-MPS
Reddox-Lander-Jones
Whitney-Larsson
Peckham-Gilbert
Petry-Smid
Plante
trade pieces this deadline and off season:
hemsky (for schenn), Cogs, Brule, Foster, Vandermeer, Fraser
Young, but more balanced, more size and a lot of talent. I would be a happy camper if this was our team next year. That is a possible cup contender in 2 years (goalie not withstanding).
DBO: Dubby Dub looking good so far. Cups have been won with similar save%.
ReplyDeleteI like Schenn as well but think RJ a bit better also think he would be more in play.
ReplyDeleteIf I was Tambo I would offer up anything on the roster for Schenn outside of Hall/Eberle.
ReplyDeleteLike DBO said if we can secure Schenn at the trade deadline for Penner + Cogliano for Schenn (and Handzus for cap reasons) it would allow us to either draft Larsson or Landeskog and hopefully pull out of lottery position next summer.
The one other benefit of having MBS drafting like he has some sort of cheat sheet is that his opinion will carry more weight (hopefully) with Tambolowe when it comes to making decisions on personnel. For example if we are actually pursuing Schenn when Lombardi asks for Penner+MPS if MBS says its worth it there might be less "evaluating". Plus the guy might even be able to spot talent in other orgs and pull off a few steals in some trades.
Either way I just wish it was summer already.
Not sure if either is really available but Brayden Schenn or Ryan Johansen is the type of return the Oilers need for Hemsky or Penner. If the time comes to move one of those players they must get quality. A return like they got for Smyth is unacceptable.
ReplyDeleteThere is a genius post on C&B. I would suggest that you at least skim through it.
ReplyDeleteIt covers the idea that the Oilers are injured, crappy, etc., not just because of bad luck but because the management sets them up to fail in every area. I agree wholeheartedly with this theory and explains why so many people are not happy with this method of a "rebuild". I have often tried to conjure the words to explain my pessimism but have not come up with anything half as good as this post:
http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/1/9/1919407/a-theory-of-hockey-pessimism-nihilism-and-the-search-for-truth#storyjump
Regarding Shenn, I agree that we should make every attempt to get him out of LA.
The Leafs-Sharks rumor seems like a raw deal for the Sharks. Setaguchi, to me, seem to be more valuable and would necessitate more than Beauchamin. Pavelski is on a whole other level and what would the Leafs give for him?
Colin McDonald scores his 20th tonight in a win. Man. I wonder if he'll get another shot at the NHL.
ReplyDeleteThat's in 40 games. Tied for the AHL lead. Crazy.
ReplyDeleteLT - for some reason, I'm getting your email. The old email addy I had for you doesn't work. Got one I can use?
ReplyDeleteYou can drop me a note at mc79hockey at gmail period com
ReplyDeleteCoach - If I have to pee I just pee, I'm the wrong guy to ask that question. There is no minimum or maximum as far as I am concerned. My bladder is pea sized on top of everything.
ReplyDeleteIf I have to go I'm ducking behind some cover and going.
LT: Well when you look at his assits... gotta wonder what's his SH%.
ReplyDeletehis sh% is a shade above 20.
ReplyDeleteIt might be too high, but the fact is that there might be hope for Mcdonald and taking a flyer on him might not be that bad for some team. You know that defensively reliable winger who can kill penalties
Has any forward ever been defensively reliable and a competent penalty killer straight out of the AHL? That's an honest question - my impression is that it's a very rare thing, as even a complete AHL player like Liam Reddox bleeds at the NHL level, for a while at least.
ReplyDeleteTo all concerned
ReplyDeleteMy apologies on disparaging the QHL. Obviously my information was out of date.
I hated my coach for fingertip pushups and in turn my players hated me.
ReplyDelete@ Steve Smith
ReplyDeleteReddox is being played at center. Play him on the wing and then lets see the results
The Leafs-Sharks rumor seems like a raw deal for the Sharks. Setaguchi, to me, seem to be more valuable and would necessitate more than Beauchamin.
ReplyDeleteI think that deadline deal for Dmen are rarely fair.
You might be right that TOR has to add something, but it wouldn't surprise me if SJS is still out of a playoff spot at the deadline.
GM's can do some really funny things when they are under pressure.
Wilson has a pretty solid history, so I don't expect a terrible deal, and I have no idea how much pressure he has to make the playoffs.
Reddox is being played at center. Play him on the wing and then lets see the results
ReplyDeleteI was actually basing this mostly on the nine games he played last season. And that's nothing against Liam Reddox: he's overcome a hell of a lot of natural disadvantages to get here, he was unquestionably the right option for a callup, and there's going to be an adjustment any time you move from a farm team to the big leagues. But when you look around the league at forwards who can play defense and kill penalties, they all seem to have a few seasons under their belts.
Steve Smith
ReplyDeleteLast season Reddox was doing great until the Kaleta? hit. Then he suffered a concussion and he was not the same player as before.
I think Ginger is capable and he should be given the chance to succeed and not thrown to the wolves
Speaking of hits - Kostopoulos got six games and claims innocence. That's deliberate intent to injure, a shoulder to the jaw. Stuart with a broken jaw and he gets six games.
ReplyDeleteArmstrong and the Kings need to shit or get off the pot.
ReplyDeleteHe's proved he can build up a prospect pool and good team but the objective is to win the cup not have a good team with a top 5 farm that hf boards can jerk off to.
I wish we had a good GM because going after Schenn and dangling a Penner or Hemsky is the sort of thing that can really get this rebuild going.
Plus Schenn might be a Blade tonight which makes me happy.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteArmstrong and the Kings need to shit or get off the pot.
ReplyDeleteLombardi is the GM.
Last night I heard a good quote from a GM as reported thru the MSM:
"You can't force a Cup, it has to come to you"
I think Lombardi would like to make a move at the deadline. He would likely go for Iginla or another real top end guy but he is not going to make a move out of impatience and trade top prospects for flawed players.
I respect that.
Unfortunatly, it also means he likely won't dump a bunch of real nice prospects on us for Hemsky.
My bad. I knew it was Lombardi but had Armstrong stuck in my head.
ReplyDeleteI think Penner would be a real nice acquisition for the Kings especially now that Frolov is done.
There are few guys like Doughty who are going to get real expensive fairly quick. Plus Smyth is healthy this year.
Vancouver looks really good by Bobby Lou is a melt down away from dropping a series against a good team like the Wings or a Penner fortified Kings.
Which would make me very happy.
SB: Too bad Frolov's on the Rangers.
ReplyDeleteI don't think LA would trade Schenn. They might give up on one of them tough:
ReplyDeleteAndrei Loktionov C 28 6 21 27 6 13 1990-05-30 20 Voskresensk, Russia 5.11 187
Vyacheslav Voynov D 36 6 21 27 19 5 1990-01-15 20 Chelyabinsk, Russia 5.11 202
And that'l be just as good.
Smyth for Nillsson, Pronger for Smid, Cole for O'Sullivan...
ReplyDeleteJust exactly what is it about the current management that gives you guys confidence in a trading scenario?
Sum Oil,
ReplyDeleteWasn't the Reddox hit from Clark McArthur?
Either way, Reddox looks much better on the W than at C.
Too much is made in the performance of potential draft picks in their last year before the draft, especially the WJC and the Memorial Cup.
ReplyDeleteScouts always look at the whole package, and not just recent numbers.
I'm still thinking the Oilers take Larsson unless they luck into the first pick.
McDonald...Wow. That is crazy. Good for him.
ReplyDelete@ Jay
ReplyDeleteThanks. I wasnt sure and hence the question mark after Kaleta. That said, there was a stark contrast between the Reddox pre-hit and and post concussion.
Tom Gazzola (Oiler staff) interview with MBS
ReplyDeleteIts more than one segment, so let it play.
Thanks, Woodguy.
ReplyDeleteI guess the worries we all had about Rajala being easily injured because of his size were real enough.
ReplyDeleteTambo: Scott, you need to make the playoffs and I'm rebuilding. How about Hemsky for Johansson?
ReplyDeleteHowson: You mean the guy your head scout was drooling over on that documentary? You're going to have to give up more than that for a guy you like that much.
Tambo: Come on, you can't believe everything you see on TV...
Oilers recall Taylor Chorney.
ReplyDeleteWhy? Hah.
ReplyDeleteVandermeer is listed as questionable for tomorrow's game.
ReplyDeleteFor the love of all things good, I hope they don't put him with 43.
They will, of course.
ReplyDeleteMaybe 43 isn't in the picture? Peckham, Smid, Gilbert, Chorney, Petry, and Foster in. Whitney, Vandermeer, Strudwick out?
ReplyDeleteArgggh.
ReplyDeleteIgnore all the names I'm throwing around as I bonked my head yesterday in hockey.
Edmonton and L.A. would make good dance partners.
And if SJ trades Guch for Beachemin they're retarded.
Taylor chorney cal up means that they don't want to give 43 playing time.
ReplyDeleteSmarmy boss
ReplyDeleteI disagree. That is a good trade fr the sharks
As per Bob McKenzie:
ReplyDeleteNHL CSB mid-term (North Am):
1. Landeskog
2. Couturier
3. RNH
4. Huberdeau
5. Biggs
6. Bartschi
7. Hamilton
8. Saad
9. Beaulieu
10. R Murphy
Jack Johnson just signed a 7 year 30.5 million deal with the Kings.
ReplyDeleteBased reports from everyone who is watching OKC, Chorney is playing very well.
ReplyDeleteI hope you guys are right.
Playing with 43 again might scar him for life and this guy might be a player.
Woodguy
ReplyDeleteI don't need twitter fr relevant news....I got u!
Good fr landeskog finally at number one.also Jonathan huberdeau guy has unreal numbers to be not be high!
ReplyDeleteI still think that hamilton might end ubp being the first NA d man being taken
Sum,
ReplyDeleteThanks!
I know not everyone has twitter going, so I try to relate what's interesting.
Like that you are posting here more often, you stuff is usually very good and makes me think.
Your CHL kung-fu is particularly good.
Putting Chorney w/Sturds would be the worst possible thing that could happen. Would not be surprised to see him w/Foster thus allowing Struds to continue to work his magic in the lockeroom and in the PB.
ReplyDeleteCan't have enough of those types on your roster.
Smarmy boss
ReplyDeleteI disagree. That is a good trade fr the sharks
I disagree. Beachemin has slowed down with injuries and isn't effective in the east.
Setoguchi would look good with Kessel and Bozak.
Woodguy
ReplyDeleteThanks, I am liking it here too. But I am miles away from many here when it comes to understanding of the game.
The chl project started as something I did in leisure time. But based on the feedback and encouragement, i expanded it. Its still in its conception phase. I want to make it bigger including more prospects.
But as they say do what you love, it's something I enjoy a lot.