Wednesday, January 26, 2011

CHL Prospects Update: Lordy

This is Jeremie Blain. After an early season injury the puck moving defender is having all kinds of success in the QMJHL. He's not alone, as it seems like the entire Oiler prospect stable is shooting lights out this year.

If you're an Oiler prospect playing junior hockey and not progressing, this is one bad year. Here's the current list of prospects playing in the OHL, WHL and QMJHL and their point totals.

The Oilers have so many outstanding young players at the NHL level that several of these kids are going to have prolonged stays in the AHL before getting a real NHL shot.

Which is fine, because that's what the good teams do; develop your players in the minors and then plus them in when needs arise. The Detroit model, as it were.


FORWARDS
  1. C Ryan Martindale (OHL) 43gp, 26-35-61
  2. L Curtis Hamilton (WHL) 37gp, 16-34-50
  3. R Tyler Pitlick (WHL) 44gp, 20-30-50
  4. L Drew Czerwonka (WHL) 44gp, 11-21-32
  5. L Kristians Pelss (WHL) 40gp, 7-10-17
  6. R Cameron Abney (WHL) 36gp, 4-6-10
That's a terrific amount of talent that is clearly above board at this time. Martindale, Hamilton and Pitlick are impact juniors and Czerwonka is a quality regular. Hell even Pelss is coming on a little (3-1-4 in his most recent 6 games). Odds are only one (maybe two) of these kids will turn into NHL players (I count 200 or more games as the line in the sand).

DEFENSE
  1. Martin Marincin (WHL) 42gp, 11-32-43
  2. Brandon Davidson (WHL) 48gp, 6-26-32
  3. Jeremie Blain (QMJHL) 20gp, 1-19-20
I'm trying my absolute best not to get giddy about this situation. Three guys who are scoring well in juniors from the blue, and the top prospect on the list has a wide range of skills. Lordy.

GOALERS
  1. Tyler Bunz (WHL) .913SP (7th overall in league)
  2. Olivier Roy (QMJHL) .904SP (6th overall in league)
Tracking goalies is like tracking knuckleball pitchers. We wait.

Plus arrows for everyone save Abney. Seriously.
at

36 comments:

  1. Hugo LeungWednesday, January 26, 2011 at 8:53:00 PM MST

    MBS has to be commended. One year rebuild?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Jake70Wednesday, January 26, 2011 at 8:55:00 PM MST

    Looking at the picture, Blain looks like a big guy, 6'2" 190...nice.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Paper DesignerWednesday, January 26, 2011 at 9:06:00 PM MST

    What's nice is that I feel safe betting on at least two of them, right now, to be NHL players. Hamilton is by all reports one of the best all-around players, which is a huge positive sign for an organization that lacks in large, two-way players. Not to mention that He might be on this team faster than anyone from the 2010 draft not named Taylor Hall. And Marincin's numbers are insane. Do you know, Lowetide, how he's comparing to some of the top defenders from the 2010 draft? Other than Fowler, he might be tracking better than all of them.

    Is it too early to call this group a candidate for best single year NHL draft since Red Wings 1989? Probably, but do you ever remember a team having this many prospects all tracking well after being drafted?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Jonathan WillisWednesday, January 26, 2011 at 10:01:00 PM MST

    I can't remember the exact numbers, but comparing the first half for Czerwonka/Pelss to their last stretch of play is ridiculous - both have taken off in a major way.

    The problems are the kids out of high school/BCHL and that blown Abney pick, which are all fairly minor black marks. The one sad thing about those picks, though, is that they seemed like obvious mispicks from Day 1.

    ReplyDelete
  5. speedsWednesday, January 26, 2011 at 10:02:00 PM MST

    Hey LT, you forgot to mention Blain's awesome +/-, +16 through 20 games ;)

    Also, Pitlick didn't play tonight, anyone know why?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Jonathan WillisWednesday, January 26, 2011 at 10:07:00 PM MST

    Hah. Got a post out tomorrow on it so I won't put up the exact numbers, but basically Pelss/Czerwonka are point-per-game players over their last 20.

    ReplyDelete
  7. DuceyWednesday, January 26, 2011 at 11:32:00 PM MST

    Yeah, the problem is they have Teemu Hartikainen, Lander, Plante and that is about it left in the cupboard after the 2010 draftees.

    They need a big year again this June.

    ReplyDelete
  8. PDOThursday, January 27, 2011 at 12:15:00 AM MST

    Ducey, given that they own a lottery pick and another one in the top 35... not too worried.

    ReplyDelete
  9. doritograndeThursday, January 27, 2011 at 12:21:00 AM MST

    I'm having so much fun tracking the junior skaters this year. It does seem like each one has lost their weaknesses and are leaders on their respective teams.

    The goalies however, have not been stellar. I like the strategy that's been employed the past two years and hope they expend another 4th-6th rounder on a big goalie who's fallen in the rankings. Given how Roy's stats have been taking on a month-to-month basis, I'd be hesitant to sign him in the off-season.

    ReplyDelete
  10. EasyOilThursday, January 27, 2011 at 1:37:00 AM MST

    @doritogrande: I would say bunz is having a good year, at least compared to his previous years. Roy is having an off year but he's still sixth in a league that's known more for easy offence and poor defence.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Coach pb9617Thursday, January 27, 2011 at 6:46:00 AM MST

    Also, Pitlick didn't play tonight, anyone know why?

    Lower body injury

    ReplyDelete
  12. Jonathan WillisThursday, January 27, 2011 at 6:54:00 AM MST

    Exact numbers:

    Czerwonka, last 24GP: 5G - 17A - 22PTS, +12

    Pelss, last 16 GP: 6G - 8A - 14PTS, +11

    ReplyDelete
  13. SumOilThursday, January 27, 2011 at 7:28:00 AM MST

    Agreed with JW
    I have been pleasantly surprised by the scoring of Drew Czerwonka. When he was drafted, i scratched my head thinking what does this guy do?
    Doesnt look too bad for a 6th rounder?

    ReplyDelete
  14. AnonymousThursday, January 27, 2011 at 7:53:00 AM MST

    I think for someone like Abney you have to take into account other factors besides the gushing of stats. The guy is one of the toughest if not the toughest guys in the WHL. I think his numbers should be slightly better but what you want out of your future enforcer is a guy who can play a regular shift effectively and a guy who can beat up other guys.

    ReplyDelete
  15. LowetideThursday, January 27, 2011 at 7:57:00 AM MST

    Just to be clear, I did call Czerwonka a "quality regular" and mentioned Pelss had improved.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Jonathan WillisThursday, January 27, 2011 at 7:57:00 AM MST

    @ Anonymous:

    Why waste a third-round pick on an enforcer when Steve MacIntyre's available for nothing in the summer?

    It makes no sense to develop these guys.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Jonathan WillisThursday, January 27, 2011 at 7:58:00 AM MST

    LT:

    Absolutely. I just found the degree of improvement startling.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Jonathan WillisThursday, January 27, 2011 at 8:00:00 AM MST

    @ Anonymous:

    Further, at the same age Zack Stortini had 4X the points Abney does this year, and he can barely play a regular shift in the NHL.

    ReplyDelete
  19. AnonymousThursday, January 27, 2011 at 8:10:00 AM MST

    Thats the problem comparing players from different leagues and different times you don't get a good comparison.

    How many impact players come out of the draft from the 3rd round on? You find your utility guys there. You hope you find a guy who can play in your bottom 6 someday while providing the toughness that your team requires.

    ReplyDelete
  20. AnonymousThursday, January 27, 2011 at 8:14:00 AM MST

    anon - there is no justifying wasting any pick on Abney. None. He is someone you invite to camp as a free agent walk on - if he's still playing organized hockey @ 20 or 22.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Jonathan WillisThursday, January 27, 2011 at 8:22:00 AM MST

    @ Anonymous:

    Or you draft a boom/bust guy. Jordan Weal. Cody Eakin. Casey Cizikas. Alex Hutchings. Those kinds of players.

    ReplyDelete
  22. AnonymousThursday, January 27, 2011 at 8:37:00 AM MST

    Come on Jon you can do better then list players that have yet to step foot into a NHL rink.

    I thought for sure you would have used the old Datsyuk/Zetterberg picks for sure

    ReplyDelete
  23. AnonymousThursday, January 27, 2011 at 8:39:00 AM MST

    Actually you can justify them quite a bit since pretty much every team makes picks like that. But then again what do they know they are only the guys doing the drafting. They all must be idiots then

    ReplyDelete
  24. Jonathan WillisThursday, January 27, 2011 at 8:39:00 AM MST

    @ Anonymous:

    With the exception of Weal (drafted in 2010) those are all guys the Oilers could have snagged with the Abney pick. Go look them up and tell me you'd rather have Abney.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Jonathan WillisThursday, January 27, 2011 at 8:40:00 AM MST

    @ Anonymous:

    Detroit doesn't do it.

    ReplyDelete
  26. SumOilThursday, January 27, 2011 at 8:41:00 AM MST

    The best thing about the last draft is that almost everyone is outperforming their draft pedigree. Its only when you see Kellen Jones and Pelss that you see a comparable perfmormance to where they were drafted

    ReplyDelete
  27. SumOilThursday, January 27, 2011 at 8:43:00 AM MST

    @ Anonymous
    Picking Abney with a 3rd rounder was as idiotic as it gets. Smart people are ones who learn from their mistakes and the scouting staff certainly changed their strategy this time around and we are seeing the fruits of it all

    ReplyDelete
  28. AnonymousThursday, January 27, 2011 at 8:53:00 AM MST

    Really SumOil? Guess the Bruins drafting Lucic was even more "idiotic" in the 2nd round then. Oh wait everyone knew who Lucic was before he got drafted right? Hell I guess the Oilers were idiots again drafting Czerwonka then? I bet you had him pegged for sure

    ReplyDelete
  29. "Steve Smith"Thursday, January 27, 2011 at 9:29:00 AM MST

    Points per game, WHL, draft year:

    Milan Lucic: 0.306
    Cameron Abney: 0.083

    Great comp!

    ReplyDelete
  30. doritograndeThursday, January 27, 2011 at 9:46:00 AM MST

    Anonymous seems to have multiple-personality disorder.

    Furthermore, Abney is not playing a regular shift. He was out of the line-up for half of Edmonton's December games. I can't accurately say it was because he was HS'd or some injury but he's not among the best 12 options for a low-ranking WHL team. He's not fighting anymore and appears to have developed "Big Georgres syndrome". Hell, even Czerwonka with his newfound offensive prowess still throws down occasionally.

    ReplyDelete
  31. SumOilThursday, January 27, 2011 at 10:04:00 AM MST

    @ Anon

    Lucic pick was an over reach in terms of scoring. I dont know the rankings back then, but yes that was a gamble that paid of. Looking at Lucic's numbers, doesnt justify a top 50 selection. Bruins got lucky, plain and simple.
    Plus Lucic did have much more offence than Abney in his draft year.
    Czerwonka was a 6th round draft pick and so it is justified. If Abney was a 6th/7th rounder, I would not have been so critical of the pick.
    Also you must realize that Lucic is an exception and not the norm.

    ReplyDelete
  32. "Steve Smith"Thursday, January 27, 2011 at 10:07:00 AM MST

    Also you must realize that Lucic is an exception and not the norm.

    An exception that posted nearly four times the offense in his draft year.

    I almost wonder if Lucic had some crazy splits that year, or something, and maybe finished the season on a ten game PPG streak. Because he posted middling offense, somehow got picked in the second round, and then just lit it up the following year.

    Alternatively, he had some kind of deal with the Bruins to deliberately tank offensively until they picked him, so he wasn't on any other team's radar.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Mark-RyanThursday, January 27, 2011 at 12:35:00 PM MST

    So when Abney gets a contract, how long should I avoid the comments section of these blogs?

    ;)

    ReplyDelete
  34. kingerThursday, January 27, 2011 at 1:56:00 PM MST

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  35. godot10Thursday, January 27, 2011 at 3:12:00 PM MST

    You need to draft enforcers because you need them on your AHL team.

    You don't want to be forced to use on of the veteran AHL spots on an enforcer.

    ReplyDelete
  36. "Steve Smith"Friday, January 28, 2011 at 12:26:00 AM MST

    You don't want to be forced to use on of the veteran AHL spots on an enforcer.

    Accepting your (dubious) premise that anybody needs enforcers for any reason, why not just sign undrafted junior overagers? They wouldn't count towards the veteran limit, right?

    ReplyDelete