I know Devan Dubnyk isn't Ken Dryden. However, the young man has shown enough to see more action that he's getting with the Edmonton Oilers. That fact married to the sometimes ghastly performance of Nikolai Khabibulin--and consdiering we're in a rebuild--makes little sense on any level.
If the Oilers are in a rebuild, it behooves them to see if DD can be the #1 goalie for the '10s. If they're not, then it still makes sense to know what you've got with the big kid when your future is sinking in the west (standings).
I think most people have been very patient with Tom Renney and the current coaching staff. That group has done some nice things in getting the big 3 rookies through the door and onto the scoresheet. There's a pretty long list of guys who are on pace for solid if not career years, and I'd count Hall, Eberle, MPS and Peckham as being solid first year regulars under the Renney watch.
I also like his calm delivery in post-game pc's like last night. There's no sense ripping these young men in public, and no one wants a repeat of the MacT-rips-Penner nightly soundbites.
But we can't deny the unusual decisions. Not playing Dubnyk, the inertia over the special teams and their performances, the benching of Stortini in favor of Jacques.
--
Renney's handling of the defensemen last night is an enormous indictment of Kurtis Foster. With Ryan Whitney down early, here's how the coach doled out the EV strength minutes:
- Tom Gilbert 24:13
- Theo Peckham 19:34
- Jeff Petry 18:58
- Ladislav Smid 17:09
- Kurtis Foster 14:52
- Ryan Whitney 3:48
I'd argue that if the coaching staff doesn't trust him Kurtis Foster should be sent away at the trade deadline. NHL defenseman always have value on that day, and it doesn't look like Foster is a good fit for this team.

Agreed on Foster. He's a player in the MAB mould in my opinion. He can be a useful weapon on the right team and in the right circumstances. Unfortunately we don't have the proper veteran depth on defence or the independently savvy powerplay to accommodate him at this time.
ReplyDeleteQuite frankly the only place in the lineup I would have for him is paired with Whitney. A Smid-Foster pairing is disastrous.
Maybe the reasoning for playing Khabi so much is to allow the young skaters to make mistakes and not be concerned about letting a rookie goalie get shelled.
ReplyDeletePetry played well last night. Showed patience on the PP, i thought.
It's tough to take D minutes on any given game and draw conclusions since the minutes seem to vary greatly. However Foster is often near the bottom. That contract might be a bit rich to trade during its first year though.
ReplyDeleteAs for Dubnyk... the only valid reason I can come up with is that eventually reKhab is gonna re-face court and do some jail time and Doobie will get most of the starts then. That and Renney is making playoff run.
The Stortini thing is utterly inexplicable, but thank god Gregor and Brownlee are on the case... we should have an answer by Feb at the latest.
Petry can obviously skate and pass well enough to play this level. The thinking might be a bit behind yet.
ReplyDeletethe two year deal for foster probably mitigates any deal.
ReplyDeleteAnyone wonder if they are "showcasing" khabibulin? I know Hall said last month that they are playing for the playoffs, but realistically it is a pipe dream. Would a team like Chicago, who is not getting top notch goaltending, be willing to deal for him if we took salary back? Dave Bolland is playing poorly and makes over $3 mill, and the Hawks like what Bulin did a few years ago. Maybe a Cogs and Bulin deal for Bolland and a pick. Or make it a big one and deal them cogs, bulin and foster for Bolland, Campbell and their first and a top prospect? It's a lot of salary to take back, but the first and the prospect is huge and we get out of Bulin and foster's deal. It saves Chicago's ass, since they have to pay huge for Seabrook in the off season. I'm not saying it's the best deal out there, but something like it would be nice. Use our cap space to get some decent nhler's and some more picks/prospects. yes campbell's deal is a monster, but he becomes a top 4 guy immediately, and Bolland solidifies our 3rd line centre spot.
DBO,
ReplyDeleteI've thought a few times too about what we might be able to get back from the Hawks if we were willing to take Campbell, but every time I look at that huge cap # and term it scares me off.
If we're looking to take on disasterous contracts for picks and prospects, I'd prefer DiPietro since the hit is lower (but much, much longer - I know, I know), he'd likely be on the IR much of the time anyway, his ceiling is higher if he ever miraculously got healthy, and the first rounder we'd maybe get back would be way higher.
Could not agree more about playing DD more than once in a blue moon. I know they are playing a lot of kids at this point, but that's what this season is about.
ReplyDeleteWe're not going to make the playoffs and so giving someone who's shown in each game he is steady a chance to play more should be obvious...unless the goal was to get 35 injured AGAIN by overplaying.
Hoping I get to see Petry when I'm back tomorrow to watch. If he can play, makes it easier to ship either Foster or Vandermeer at the trade deadline.
Will be very interesting to see what moves are made w/JFJ, Storts, O'Mara, Brule and Omark in the next couple of weeks. Too hard to predict.
We say we want to pick up a veteran D or a RH 3C for this season. We know we are not making the playoffs, but as part of the kids development, we want them to take chances to make things happen without worrying about the puck in the back of the net everytime they do try something. We don't want them to get demoralized with 8-2 blow-outs every game. On the other hand, we become restless when our veteran 'tender is favoured over the rookie, presumably for the same reason. I'm very much in favour of giving the kids ice time, including Dubnyk. I just don't understand the inconsistency.
ReplyDeleteSo I agree, throw the kid in there. There will be some bad games, but now is the time to learn what these kids can do in the big leagues.
As for Foster and his broken femur, I wouldn't feel too bad about it. The seriousness of Foster's injury has been horribly overdone. There is nothing too serious about breaking a bone. In fact, if you're going to get an injury, breaking a bone is one of the best injuries you can get since bones heal, and tend to heal better than they were before they were broken. A large bone fracture like a femur does add some immediate risk in the form of blood loss and fat embolism, but after the immediate fracture period and fixation, there is nothing too serious about it. Putting a rod in a broken femur is standard of care because of the length of the bone, and needn't add to the "gory" factor. If Foster hadn't returned from a broken femur, that would have been more shocking than the fact that he did.
For what it is worth, most hockey injuries are far more career threatening than Foster's was. Fractures that extend into a joint are more serious. Even worse than fractures are soft tissue injuries (other than superficial lacerations) since they do not heal as well or at all. For example, Horcoff's knee injury has greater potential to impact his career than Foster's leg injury since it is a serious injury to ligaments, yet all we hear is that Horcoff "tweaked" his knee and will be out for a couple of months. Another injury that can be very serious and career threatening is foot/ankle injuries, especially serious sprains which is why we should be particularly concerned about Whitney this morning.
Marincin's headshot from the USA-Slovakia game yesterday:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZZot0xgqNA
U.S. coach called it "a vicious, dirty hit." The American kid got a concussion and Marincin gets an automatic one game suspension. Of all the hits to the head yesterday, I wonder how many will get more discipline?
Kurtis Foster had another tragic event in his life. The original post was made in reference to it.
ReplyDeleteU.S. coach called it "a vicious, dirty hit." The American kid got a concussion and Marincin gets an automatic one game suspension. Of all the hits to the head yesterday, I wonder how many will get more discipline?
ReplyDeleteIf Kassian just got two games, Maracin is probably due for more.
Ashley:
ReplyDeleteHere
Ashley,
ReplyDeleteA broken femur is the most serious bone injury you can have, discounting fracturing blows to the skull and spine (for obvious reasons).
It automatically puts you into a deep state of shock, unlike other breaks and fractures. Death is something like 50% likely in the first hour without treatment. Your femurs are the two single most important structural bones in your body.
Rehab often never succeeds in fully restoring bone strength in grown adults who've had a serious femoral fracture. Although all bones never quite recover after a break as an adult, the femur, because of its size takes the longest to heal.
The heaviest muscle groups in your body are attached to your femur, and it is key to not just power (hamstrings, glutes and quads), but also core stability. Your hips share joints with your femurs and that's where the bulk of your core muscle group begins.
I can't think of a more serious non-CNS injury to an athlete - whether it's a hockey player, football player, soccer player, or even tennis player. After the femur, the next step up is really the spine and skull/brain.
Can't believe we're handing out 2-gamers for clean hockey hits now. Add that to the non-hooking-hooking penalties while not calling obvious interference penalties that have been on the books for forever, and I don't know what the overall direction of today's officiating has as its goal. It sure isn't good, fast, entertaining hockey.
ReplyDeleteHall left himself totally vulnerable at the opposition blue line twice last night and probably should've been pasted into oblivion at least once. These guys need to be made accountable for their own safety again.
I found your site on www.oilogosphere.com and really enjoy your articles. Having been an Oilers fans for years I didn't know there were so many good Oiler blogs.
ReplyDeleteI agree that Dubnyk should be seeing some more playing time, his time he has served in net has proved he's a capable NHL goaltender. May as well let the kid improve in a season that will surely be another right off.
I hope Renney isn't too proud in the fact he said the team would make the playoffs and now over look the development of this team.
LT, when I re-read the reasonable expectations piece you did on Foster, it seems we are getting exactly what you predicted. Although a bit more of the negatives and a bit less of the positives, it seems like Foster is exactly what we should have expected.
ReplyDeleteAs well, the initial writeup you did when the Oilers signed him on July 1 had me worried. That piece too talked about some negatives to his game that got me a little worried.
I was only vaguely familiar with Foster before we signed him. Like everyone, I was hoping that the booming slapshot would replace what we lost (banished) in Souray. But there are simply too many negatives to his game.
Unfortunately, in Foster we got exactly what was advertised.
Can't believe we're handing out 2-gamers for clean hockey hits now.
ReplyDeleteIf you're trying to apply the NHL definition of a clean hit, you're going to be unhappy with the result. The IIHF has chosen to go in a different direction.
Schitzo - Yup, just another reason I don't like "IIHF Hockey". How are these clowns allowed so much control over the game anyway? The Swiss-German domination of the organization seems rather inappropriate considering the sport.
ReplyDeleteOff topic but I see St. Louis signed Svatos to a one year 800,000$ deal but he has to first clear waivers. I would pick him up, not because I want him on my team or think we need him, but because he would surely get a fourth, maybe even 3rd round draft pick at the deadline from a team looking for forward depth since he is on a cheap one year deal.
ReplyDeleteSeems a good way of using our cap space to pick up another bullet in the draft gun.
Off topic but I see St. Louis signed Svatos to a one year 800,000$ deal but he has to first clear waivers. I would pick him up, not because I want him on my team or think we need him, but because he would surely get a fourth, maybe even 3rd round draft pick at the deadline from a team looking for forward depth since he is on a cheap one year deal.
ReplyDeleteHe'd have to clear waivers again before you can trade him in the same year. On the other hand, if we just need warm bodies it would make Cogs or Brule more expendable.
DD I agree needs more playing time. But someone suggested as did one of the TSN regulars on the radio they might be showcasing him. If Phili were to land Nabovcov for the playoffs then Wash might need Khabi to counter that, or vice versa.
ReplyDeleteJacques is easy they are either trying to get him confidence again His upside is higher than storts or again are showcaseing him.
I wonder if we expect too much from Foster. With the exception of 1 season, he has been a 20 point man in the NHL and that is what he is on pace for here.
ReplyDeleteWhen I see Renney, I often wonder if there are other motives to his decisions because sometimes winning doesn't seem to be the focus (i.e. JFJ vs Stortini). Perhaps he and Stortini are 'battling' in that he wants Stortini to do something in his game, but Stortini is resisting. In other words, the decision to sit him might be more about molding the player and not about winning. I wonder if playing Khabi is a secret attempt to break him or to lose games (for draft pick) or what. These are all 'benefit of the doubt' type thoughts. it could be that Renney is just 'dumb' on some things, but he seems to be too smart for some of the decisions he is making.
Anon- I would recommend getting a blogger id and joining the discussion. LT's site is an Oiler fans respite from the cold.
Who came up with all these waiver rules anyway? When they were designing the cap system they seem to have all forgotten that: a) every GM makes mistakes and b) at some point, your team may indeed want to compete. If the owners are thinking at all next time around, they'll scrap a bunch of the limitations including the 50-contract limit and this re-entry BS.
ReplyDeleteWhy more flexibility wasn't built in I really don't know.
Also, just saw Marincin's hit on Zucker, kind of agree with a take I read that basically said as a Slovak I wouldn't like it (because they need him) but as an Oilers fan I like that there's some MEAN in our solid, large offensive defenceman. It's clear there's more going on with Zucker than one play, and Martin took it on himself to deal with that (possibly multiple times). He could've done it better (though apparently you can't Scott Stevens someone anymore either), but at least he did SOMETHING and it wasn't a Tucker/Downie style wuss play.
Good to know Ashley thinks breaking your femur is a casual injury. Considering at anytime in human history outside of 70 or so years you'd probably die from it or be horribly crippled for the rest of your bleak, miserable life.
ReplyDeleteLT,
ReplyDeleteI am not sure if your post was a criticism of Renney or Foster or both, but I don't see your point.
Foster was brought in a as placeholder. Last night he played 7.5 minutes of a possible 8 minutes of PP. I expect he would have needed a rest at ES. The total icetime for the D last night (besides Whitney's ~3 min):
Gilbert 30:20
Petry 22:51
Foster 22:18
Teddy 20:29
Smid 20:14
Foster went +2. Petry went -3.
The Rel Corsi for D 5x5 for the Oilers are:
JVD 8.1
Gilbert 3.8
Foster 1.3
Whitney 0.9
Teddy -1.7
Smid -4.1
Struds -12
Petry -35
I would suggest that Foster is being handled pretty well. He is getting a lot of PP time and some rest during 5 x 5. His Rel Corsi shows he is doing fine.
Having said all that, he and JVD should be traded at the deadline as they are not part of the future.
Oh, the death of his child. Pardon my ignorance. That is indeed tragic.
ReplyDeleteRegarding the femoral fracture. I don't mean to imply the injury is "casual", and that it does not require significant rehab to get back to playing shape, but if you are going to choose a lower limb injury, that is a good one to pick. There is an excellent chance you return to 100%. There are many non-CNS/spine injuries more threatening to a hockey player where returning to 100% is impossible, but many of them aren't as "gory" so don't get the coverage. For example, a moderate wrist or thumb injury could end a pro hockey player's career. A foot or ankle injury ditto.
Anyway, it looks as if I have referenced the wrong tragedy in Foster's recent past. The death of a newborn is truly tragic, beyond any importance we attribute to this game we love. I take responsibility for putting the thread off topic, and I hope this post reinstates sympathy for Kurtis. He's certainly earned it.
@Ducey
ReplyDeleteThe reason Foster played so much on PP was because Renney did not really wish to use him as much otherwise. Basically he was giving his other D-men rest on the PP.
The reason Foster is not a fit on the team right now is that players are defering to his shot more than they should. Tampa had Stamkos and hence Foster was the 'secondary' gun on the PP. Untill we start setting up a lot of one-timers from one of the slots, Foster and his shot will not really be as effective.
If the owners are thinking at all next time around, they'll scrap a bunch of the limitations including the 50-contract limit and this re-entry BS.
ReplyDeleteThat would be swell. Brian Burke and a few big money teams then can stock on prospects, and sign virtually every minor league free agent, undrafted Euro, CHL and college player to minor league deals and each run 3 or 4 farm teams. Then instead of other teams having a shot at these players, Burke can just bounce them up and down for years until they become FA's.
Re-entry helps protect against the Forsbergs of the world just signing on 1/2 way thru the season, or being stashed on an AHL team, and then all mysteriously playing for what looks to be the Stanley Cup favourite.
The Rules help with parity and to protect the players. Neither side is going to be eager to scrap them.
furthermore,
ReplyDeleteFoster has the worst QualComp among the oilers D. and his rel corsi is not really good for that.
@Ashley
ReplyDeleteYou missed Bad Wojo's post, right? Because as a biomechanist, that seems a lot more plausible to me than "it's preferable to a broken thumb." (And to further emphasize the danger, imagine a bone fragment nicking the femoral artery. Yikes.) I dunno about most dangerous non-CNS bone injury per se -- a broken rib piercing the pleura and causing a collapsed lung would rank right up there to me, too -- but it's definitely not a straightforward and readily-recovered injury.
Marincin gets three games, via the TSN guys on Twitter.
ReplyDelete@Ducey
ReplyDeleteThe reason Foster played so much on PP was because Renney did not really wish to use him as much otherwise. Basically he was giving his other D-men rest on the PP.
I can't see that Sumoil,
Renney played Foster, Gilbert (~4 min) and Petry (~3 min) on the PP. Noone else got much PP time.
Its most likey that Gilbert and Petry were seen as set up men for Foster's point shot. In other words, Foster was seen as an asset on the PP, not just some guy they didn't want to use anywhere else.
And I still don't see the problem. If he was leading the team in 5x5 time and playing most the PP time, he would be making a heck of a lot more than $1.8 million. He is what he is supposed to be.
Correction: three games on top of the automatic, for four total.
ReplyDeleteLMHF#1
ReplyDeleteI couldn't agree more re: Marincin. As soon as I saw the replay and saw how he took it upon himself to send the message and deal with the american player I started to get all excited again.
I know people get pretty touchy around throwing out comparisons to Chara but that is exactly what the big man in Boston would of done. Big giant, skilled AND mean european defensemen are a rare thing, but I think MBS might of just found one in Marincin.
If I am the Oiler brass I would make sure I find a way to send the message to the young slovak that the org. supports what he did there and encourage it in the future.
You can always coach a player to control his mean streak but its almost impossible to get a player to develop that same attribute.
If Marincin even turns into Chara-lite we should have a very good 1B-2A dman coming down the pipe.
"Mad Dog" Marincin?
ReplyDeleteCompletely agree on playing DD. We ain't making the playoffs and need to find out if DD can develop into a starter. DD should, if healthy play in 22-25 of our remaining games.
ReplyDeleteThe worse thing the Oilers can do is panic. I have been long an advocate of a plan. Right now is when the GM can earn his pay.
We have assets that we can parley into draft picks for the MB. We have cap space to facilitate trades, we have expiring contracts and we have needs everywhere save top 6 wingers. We can also see if some guys like ROM, Omark, Petry and Belle can play at this level.
If ST makes a move to make a move, tar and feathers would be too good for him. If there is a minor pickup a la a Curtis Glencross type ...I am game but we should not be making a trade for any long term contracts unless it is for someone young who will grow up with the nucleus of this squad
Did anyone see Grier pull the old ball hockey move on 26 last night coming down the LW? He threw it off the boards and skated around him and Foster didn't have any plan how to stop it from happening.
ReplyDeleteSo, yeah, there's that.
26's numbers came from playing with great linemates in a division that wasn't real so I guess we can't be overly surprised that he isn't tearing it up here.
I'd look to move him as well as 16 and 67 come the deadline.
DD should be playing more but Khabby did play great at Van so the latest Renney/DD error would be if DD didn't get the start vs Col tomorrow night.
@doogie
ReplyDeleteYes a fracture complicated by a vascular injury would indeed be far more serious. Fortunately, that is quite rare in a midshaft femoral fracture. Same for a broken rib causing a pneumothorax. There are thousands of broken ribs every year in Alberta, yet only a small percentage would result in a pneumothorax.
I did see Wojo's post (whose posts I always enjoy BTW), but I didn't respond.
The fact that the femur is the largest bone does not make it the most important structural bone in your body. A bone heals more solid than it was before the fracture in both adults and children, children just heal faster. A one hour 50% mortality rate for a femoral fracture is false. We try to get them fixated in 24 hours, but there are many that have gone longer than that without life threatening risk. Historically, surgery was often delayed for weeks with the limb in traction; prior to a better understanding of the importance of early mobilization after surgery. When other real emergencies arrive like appendicitis, ruptured aorta, gunshot/stabbing, subdural hematoma, etc. the femoral fracture gets bumped. I've yet to see someone die only because of a femoral shaft fracture.
Rolston on re-entry waivers.
ReplyDeleteWhen the worst thing we can argue about is the so-called mishandling of Foster, you know your team is being run at very least competantly.
ReplyDeleteLook no further than down highway 2, to see what true horror looks like.
When the worst thing we can argue about is the so-called mishandling of Foster, you know your team is being run at very least competantly.
ReplyDeleteLook no further than down highway 2, to see what true horror looks like.
Ducey - Being that those things haven't happened to anywhere near the extent you describe in the past, and the fact that I believe money to be a legit resource in pro sports (and I think parity is the devil), I have no problems with any of the supposed consequences you mention. Nor do I see how an owner or management with any belief in themselves would either. We in fact now are an advantaged team and will be crippled by the restrictive rules before too long. The fact that we won't be able to keep these guys we're developing despite having the financial resources to do so is just criminal in a competitive sports environment. We deserve them.
ReplyDeleteLMHF:
ReplyDeleteHow is the Kassian hit a clean hit?
I agree that is wasn't dirty in the sense of elbows up, or seemingly aiming for the head, but the puck was long gone - there was no hockey play to separate the puck from the player.
Speeds - if the replay timing is correct, it appears to be between 1 and 2 seconds after he touched the puck.
ReplyDeleteThat's still fair game nowadays isn't it? Always used to be.
Completely OT, but I am excited that I just got my first new Oiler jersey in some time (10+ years) and it came with Eberle's name on it.
ReplyDeleteCompletely OT, but I am excited that I just got my first new Oiler jersey in some time (10+ years) and it came with Eberle's name on it.
ReplyDeleteAnd his number too, if your profile picture's to be believed!
"SS"
ReplyDeleteDetails, details...
I was probably too excited to be clear.
BTW, I nearly cursed when I saw 35 start last night instead of DD. I don't get that (a less eloquent way of saying what LT did).
Since when did a player getting a clean hit automatically start meaning the checking player was going to be offered a fight or get a filthy hit back?
ReplyDeletehunter are you talking about the NHL or the IIHF? Because in the NHL you are right that there is too much posturing after good hard checks (y'know, to get the team going), but the IIHF has this thing about returning players undamaged to their regular lives. I agree with the suspensions for contact with the head and don't feel it is too much for these kids to be held to a higher standard than what the NHL uses (though a similar one to the NFL).
ReplyDeleteIn addition to Marincin getting 4 games, Landeskog will miss the remainder of the WJs with an ankle injury.
ReplyDeleteThat's a double-whammy for prospect enthusiasts.
Since when did a player getting a clean hit automatically start meaning the checking player was going to be offered a fight or get a filthy hit back?
ReplyDeleteSomething something Dave Semenko?
I am just going off my knowledge as someone who's taken first aid/emergency response courses a few too many times, so I should have thrown that into my post.
ReplyDeleteAs for bones healing stronger... It's been my personal experience that once broken, it will re-break in the same spot. Friends, family, schoolmates - I've seen it enough times.
I still can't think of a more important structural bone than the femur. A hip, I guess?
But whether it's a tibia, fibula, radius, ulna, humerus, rib, collarbone (important and freaking painful, but you can still walk or hobble) or even metatarsals - you can get around with them broken. A broken femur and you're done, you're not moving anywhere unless someone's got a good splint and stretcher.
I must be misremembering the 50% mortality thing, but I checked and shock from a femur fracture is guaranteed.
ReplyDeleteSpeeds - if the replay timing is correct, it appears to be between 1 and 2 seconds after he touched the puck.
ReplyDeleteThat's still fair game nowadays isn't it? Always used to be.
I think that's probably borderline fair game in the NHL* as currently called. but, that's part of the difference between the NHL and IIHF. In the NHL, there seems to be more of a "should have kept his head up!" mentality than in the IIHF. I don't know this, I'm only hypothesizing, but i think if Kassian makes the same hit but the CZE player is carrying the puck at the time of contact, there's either no suspension or penalty, or less of one. Instead of the NHL's attitude of "keep your head up", the IIHF's attitude seems to be more along the lines of "if he's got the puck, you can hit him, but if you're at all late, or your elbows are up, and whatever you're doing is excessive beyond the standard of a reasonable hockey play to get the puck, we'll try to levy some discipline"
* whether it should be is something some might debate - I'm of the opinion that a Kassian type hit should be penalized in the NHL, not because I think hockey should be figure skating, or whatever, but because it's not a "hockey" play, it's a way to "legally" interfere with a player and a source of unnecessary injuries in a game that already has too many
A week or two ago in the Journal Eberle said that the players feel really confident when Khabi's in net because they know he'll bail them out if they make a mistake. I'm sure I've heard Renney say much the same on a couple of occasions.
ReplyDeleteIf the players think (rightly or wrongly) that their mistakes are less likely to end up in the back of the net with Khabi in I can understand why Renney keeps calling his name. It may set back DD's development a little bit, but he's got between four and six rookie skaters a night to think about too.
Foster's kind of an odd duck. He looks like he's skating on stilts most of the time and sometimes appears to have the coordination of a 14 year old boy going through a growth spurt.
ReplyDeleteHe's fairly good with the puck and to me, his shooting is what keeps him in the NHL. Shots directed at the net are good for everyone. It's good for the guys jamming in rebounds and tipping pucks in front, it's good for the guys that are recovering the puck in the corners, and it's good for general havoc in the offensive zone.
Defensively he has troubles finishing his checks and he gets beat a lot of the time because of his awkward mobility issues. He's no spring chicken so maybe not, but I've always thought that these things could be ironed out.
In any case, I think he was considered to be a bit of a wild card when he signed here and that the hope was that he'd be better than he has been, even if he is meeting the realistic minimum expectations.
He's helping the offence and hurting the defence. You just have to decide what's more important. We're trying to develop a bunch of young forwards and I think that they need a mixed bag of defencemen to push them in every direction, so I'd keep Foster around for his offensive element.
As for last nights minutes spread...I wouldn't be surprised if Foster was/is hurting as well.
Folks, just wanted to say that the comment threads on this site are some of the most informative and entertaining i've read anywhere. It's a rare thing to see a commenting community that extrapolates so smartly the source material. I always learn something new from the thread on an LT post; this discussion on the severity of a femur fracture is just one example.
ReplyDeleteThanks for being awesome. That is all!
That Maracin hit was over the top filthy.
ReplyDeleteThe Canadians have some injury woes but the Americans are dropping like flies. One wonders how much of an impact that will have if they meet in the medal round.
As for Kassian I know they don't take history into account but we all know that Kassian pulled this before and that, much like Matt Cooke or Brian Marchment, you can never do wrong when it comes to proclaiming that if its borderline dirty then its probably what he meant to do.
Kassian is a majorleague douchebag, he has that look about him like Shayne Corson or Owen Nolan. I think Matt Fenwick had the great line where he said Nolan looks like the guy who drives along the shoulder of the highway to pass everyone when its backed up for miles.
And you're always hoping, as I've seen a couple of times, that there's a cop waiting just around that bend to nail the guy.
But I digress. These guys know that its a different ball game when it comes to international hockey and when they played the Russians they showed remarkable discipline. Whether we agree with it or not, that's the way they call the game. Kassian knew it. They all know it. He had better hope that they beat the Swedes on Saturday without him.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteLT said:
ReplyDelete"If the Oilers are in a rebuild, it behooves them to see if DD can be the #1 goalie for the '10s. If they're not, then it still makes sense to know what you've got with the big kid when your future is sinking in the west (standings)."
On the flip side, if the Oilers are rebuilding wouldn't it make sense to build NK's value and ship him?
You can't do that by sitting him on the bench.
LT said:
"I'd argue that if the coaching staff doesn't trust him Kurtis Foster should be sent away at the trade deadline. NHL defenseman always have value on that day, and it doesn't look like Foster is a good fit for this team."
I'd argue that even if the coaches did trust him he should be gone at the deadline anyways. A smart rebuilding club signs a couple FA's every year and deals them for picks at the deadline. I don't see why Edmonton should be any different.
Speaking of rebuilds - I really loving what AA is doing in Toronto with the Jays. I would kill to have a similar thinker in charge of the Oilers.
Gregor is reporting that Whitney will be at least 2 weeks.
ReplyDeleteI thought Foster was decent last night. Oilers outshot Buffalo 9-3 while he was out there at evens and outscored them 2-0 (though he had fuckall to do with the scoring sequences). He made one horrendous play, pinching along the right wing boards and then attempting a diagonal pass to Gilbert who had pinched even deeper into the bottom of the left circle; when the pass didn't get through the result was that 2-on-0 play that resulted in Khabibulin's best (only?) save of the night.
ReplyDeleteFoster also led the Oilers with 9 attempted shots, no doubt most of them on the PP. Of course that PP that went 0-for-4 was a key contributor to the loss (again), and Foster shouldn't be immune to criticism for its lack of productivity, especially since he played 93% of those PPs.
To my eye he's barely adequate as a third pairing guy - OK with the puck, but there's just oodles of space in behind the guy - and he needs to be Productive on the powerplay to earn his keep.
Agree with Foster's shot. It is actually quite remarkable how often he hits the net with it, often with a defender in front of him or closing in from the side. He doesn't need much time or space to let it rip either. Valuable skills to be sure, but unfortunately he is far from a complete player.
ReplyDeleteContrast this with Souray. He also shot a lot, but hit the net far less often. His shots were frequently way too high or way too wide, but he got lots of press for breaking the glass occasionally. He had reasonable boxcars just because he shot so much. On the other hand, his defensive skills are in a different league vs Foster. Which would we rather have? I'd take Souray personally. A defender should, first, be able to defend.
That Maracin hit was over the top filthy.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I liked it too.
A week or two ago in the Journal Eberle said that the players feel really confident when Khabi's in net because they know he'll bail them out if they make a mistake. I'm sure I've heard Renney say much the same on a couple of occasions.
That could just be the case of saying the right thing. Its not like 14 is going to say "yeah, the old drunk has some good games in him, but he couldn't stop a beach ball last night"
DD 11gp .916
Khab 24 .898
I know who I'd feel more confident in.
Traktor:
ReplyDeleteAgree on the FA's at the deadline - this is a good chunk of the reason many were disappointed to not see EDM sign Moore/Belanger/Clark types instead of Jacques/Strudwick etc, though of course there's a lot of variables to consider.
If the Oilers have decent* offers for any of the following players, they should be strongly considered by the deadline:
Vandermeer
Smid**
Cogliano**
Fraser
Jacques
MacIntyre
Strudwick
Foster
Jones
Stortini
Brule**
*what kind of offer qualifies as "decent" will still be different for each player, of course
** Depending on one's view of the long term potential with these players.
Horcoff, Khabibulin, Hemsky and Penner all have arguments to be made for moving them given all their particular circumstances, but they are all kind of different from the 11 listed above.
Woodguy,
ReplyDeleteKhabi was in net during November's blowouts. Over on MC79, Tyler broke down the Rangers 8-2 beatdown of the Oilers and very few of the goals were gimmes. From what I remember of those games, and I try not to, we allowed an absurd number of odd-man rushes and were constantly blowing defensive assignments, so I suspect the Rangers game was indicative of Oilers play in November, rather than Khabi specifically.
That said, I think DD should get at least 30-35 starts this season. As much for his protection as the team's.
speeds,
ReplyDeleteI don't understand why people are so willing to let Ryan Jones go. He's an ideal fourth liner. Has a bit of a scoring touch, agitates, hits, and is fairly reliable defensively. All of this keeping in mind he's on the fourth line.
I feel the same way about Smid. Great third pairing guy. Might peak as a second pairing man later on, but right now he's what I'd want on the third pair - hits, is mean, strong, keeps the crease clear. Obviously his positioning isn't great, but if it was, he'd be on the second pairing or even first - if not here, then somewhere else.
Bad Wojo:
ReplyDeleteI think I'm just trying to look at the situation realistically, though that may really be pessimistically.
I think I'm the only guy who was even vaguely against the Jones waiver claim. Not that I necessarily thought he'd be a bust, just that I wasn't sure how much upside was really there with that move since he's UFA after this season.
http://hockeysymposium.blogspot.com/2010/03/trade-deadline-2010-grebeshkov-and.html
He has played well, but if you look at this from the perspective of Jones, maybe he's quite happy to go to the market if he posts 14 goals this year from the 4th line? His situation doesn't strike me as horribly dissimilar from Potulny's last year, maybe EDM can use the example of Potulny with his agent in terms of how valuable a one way contract offer now might be?
Absoulutely loved the Marincin "Howe do you do"
ReplyDeleteThat was a payback for the "Vicious Hit" by Zucker the previous year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCR3PxvuSA4
Not only that but the Americans were beaking at Marincin all game this year.
Well done kid. Payback should be a bitch.
Somewhere in Davos Messier is smiling. Now that's an "elbow", Yeah
Bar Qu - NHL.
ReplyDeleteBW: agreed but it's about the price.
ReplyDeleteI doubt will price himself out of the team but what might 28 ask for if he finishes with 15-18 goals in limited min/
@ Bad Wojo
ReplyDeleteAgreed on Jones. Plus he's 26. His play can still be expected to improve. I put Stortini in the same category. It would be nice to keep those guys around. I think they would be a nice complement to the youth in a few more years.
Marincin hit - Of course it's better to have your player dishing this stuff out, rather than your player getting it(see M.A.Pouliot getting destroyed by Phaneuf in that prospects game).
ReplyDeleteThey should dump Jones not because they don't like him, but because its proper asset managment.
ReplyDeleteIf you get a pick for him, he is easily replacable. You should be able to pick up a placeholding 10 goal checking winger for your 3rd or 4th line fairly easily - seems like Calgary has 8 of them.
So you trade him, get your pick, and replace him next season - possibly with him - as he would be a UFA - or maybe Reddox - or some other UFA.
The trade deadline is an ideal time to trade him as the number of options for rival GM's are more limited.
I would be surprised if he moved though.
speeds:
ReplyDeleteI don't think many argued the asset management pov when discussing the players you listed.
Most just wanted pk and faceoff help and would've even given up a pick and prospect to get it.
But I know you are one of the guys that see the full picture.
Pretty much agree on your list of expendables.
The one guy I want to see gone most though is Fraser. Crazy that we gave up a pick for him when guys like John Mitchell are on waivers every year.
Ducey:
ReplyDeleteI pretty much agree, that's kind of why I listed all the guys I did - anyone that carries positive trade value at the deadline and can be replaced for the same money or less come July 1 2011 should arguably be dealt unless there are some other factors to consider. for example, if jones/whoever were willing to sign for less than you think you'd be able to replace them for in the summer, even if you could get a 3/4 round pick for him at the deadline.
Speeds:
ReplyDeleteWhat's the difference in Jones making 1 dollar vs Jones making 1 million dollars if Edmonton is 10 million under the cap?
I'll take the draft pick please.
anyone that carries positive trade value at the deadline and can be replaced for the same money or less come July 1 2011 should arguably be dealt unless there are some other factors to consider
ReplyDeleteI agree, although I think chemistry has to be one of your "other factors". For example, if Ryan Jones is able to chip in ten goals, and he's also basically acting as Taylor Hall's big brother off the ice, maybe it's not worth screwing that up for the third rounder you're likely to obtain.
That, of course, assumes that someone like Jones is playing at replacement level - I'm not about to defend the whole "Strudwick is good in the room" thing.
I like Marincin's hit the same way I liked Suh's violence on Delhomme.
ReplyDeletePicks are fun and everything (especially after the 2010 draft seems to be working out so well to this point), but eventually we'll want to have a good team in reality instead of just in theory.
ReplyDeleteIf the team likes what Jones gives them and he can be re-signed for reasonable dollars, I don't see where it makes sense to deal him for a 3rd or 4th rounder just so we can pick a guy who might have a chance of making the team in 3 years.
By all means trade him if it's looking like his demands aren't reasonable, but the plan is to start making the playoffs again starting next year, isn't it?
Traktor:
ReplyDelete(a) The difference is potentially important next year, when the team might be at the cap. I'm not expecting them to be, it's more of a theoretical at this point while we have no idea what EDM is planning to spend next year
(b) money's money. I don't know what a 3rd round pick is worth, but I seriously doubt it would be worth 1.2 mil if Jones were willing to sign for 1.8 over 3 instead of 3 over 3. Also, If you could save ~1 mil with Jones vs some other equivalent UFA, even if you aren't spending to the cap, if there's some fixed overall budget that's still money that could go towards, scouting, development, etc.
Jones is already making $975 K, I don't see him signing for $1.8 over three.
ReplyDeleteNot the sort of player I'd sign for that long of a term, frankly. Two years tops.
Schitzo:
ReplyDeleteI think there's something to the whole "We know this guy already, he fits in well both as a player and person" thing, and I don't think that can be ignored.
Sometimes I/we talk about the players as though they are interchangeable pieces, and maybe they are or aren't on ice, but if a GM tells me it's worth some extra money for the devil you know, I'm prepared to believe them.
I guess if you take that too far, and keep players only because they are good team guys, it can be a problem if you're trying to win.
...but the plan is to start making the playoffs again starting next year, isn't it?
ReplyDeleteBeware the sophomore slumps *ghost noise*
commonfan13:
ReplyDeleteI don't have a problem with EDM re-signing Jones if they can get him on a good contract going forward. Bruce doesn't like 3 years, I don't mind it if the money is right.
However, you've got to have it done by the deadline, IMO, and you've got to be a able to get a deal or I'd just as soon trade him and take my chances at signing and equivalent, or Jones himself, in the summer.
As for when they plan to make the playoffs again, I would guess next summer but it's hard to say. I'm sure they'd like to make the playoffs next season - does that mean they are willing to spend to the cap again, or are those days over?
Speeds:
ReplyDeletePersonally I would never give a player like Jones 3 years.
I'll take Reddox for 500k plus the pick (then deal Reddox at the next deadline for a pick and so on).
traktor:
ReplyDeletethere's certainly an argument for the flexibility, but to me you can't talk about the length without also talking about the money - both need to be considered.
If I want to sign Jones types short term because I have great AHL scouts and I can pull those guys up every year from the AHL to come up and play competent 4th line hockey, yeah, I'm happy to do what you're suggesting. If I'm not confident doing that, I wouldn't be too sad about signing a Jones type for 700 K, with the knowledge that, worst case, Jones regresses and he's an OK 13-14th F, a guy that would cost at least 500K anyway.
It will be interesting to watch what happens with Fraser going forward - I have a hard time imagining this is the exact player EDM management thought they were getting.
ReplyDeleteI'm not ripping on management here, I thought the Fraser move was a worthwhile gamble. Sometimes those work, sometimes they don't - to get exceptionally trite, that's life.
However, when management makes a move and it doesn`t work out, at least not right away, what do they do about it? Maybe patience is all that's required, maybe they'll trade him before next year, maybe they'll plan around him and leave him as a 13th/14th F heading into next season? It'll be interesting to see.
Yeah, you guys do bring up a good point about Jones' contract. I hope management has a sit-down with him before the trade deadline and we figure out if he'll be here or not. If it wasn't for our logjam of wingers, I could see him on the third line.
ReplyDeleteBob McKenzie
ReplyDeleteI am hearing Ryan Whitney's injury is long term, measured more in months than weeks. Details to follow
Top 3 pick guarenteed
It's time to bring an exorcist to Rexall Place. Last year we lost our best player (Hemsky), goalie (Khabi), and d-man (Souray). This year we lose our best player (Hemsky), best center (Horcs), and best d-man (Whitney).
ReplyDeleteSeriously, WTF is going on?
This might be the result of having a team seriously thin on depth and overly dependent on their few good players. Thus if a D is hurting for a while, but needs to play through it because there is absolutely no one else capable of covering his play - well then it is likely that D will get hurt. Plus Hemmer and Horc always go down for 10 or more a season. But of course there is no one to cover for their contribution either (even in a small way for a short time).
ReplyDeletemagisterrex:
ReplyDeleteAll those players have major injury histories and they're holding to their patterns.
That's what's going on.
The fact that the femur is the largest bone does not make it the most important structural bone in your body.
ReplyDeleteWell, no, but the fact that it's an attachment site for so many important postural and power-generating muscles, combined with the difficulty of rehab, does make it a career-threatening injury for pretty much any athlete. I think that's the more important point, here. Though in looking it up, Foster's was a non-displaced fracture, so vascular damage was pretty unlikely. I took the wrong meaning of "danger" there originally, but it's still a highly problematic injury, much more so than a wrist or thumb injury, which almost always has a clear rehabilitative path and would require a significant complication in order to be career-threatening.
A bone heals more solid than it was before the fracture in both adults and children, children just heal faster.
I'm pretty sure I remember the opposite being the case from my athletic injury course. Obviously, you're not going to be as weakened with bone as you would be with soft tissue, but nothing ever heals back to its original strength. Certainly, you're not going to regrow trebeculae, so the internal structure of the bone will be weakened. For a long bone, this will only be to a minor degree, since the cortical bone is where most of the mechanical strength is derived (though with that also not being at 100%, it's more of a problem), but something like the neck of the femur (as an example), where the cortex is thinner, would be more of a problem.
By all means trade him if it's looking like his demands aren't reasonable, but the plan is to start making the playoffs again starting next year, isn't it?
ReplyDeleteI don't think so. I mean the plan could be, but I don't see it happening.
The wave of secondary players like Lander, Pitlick, Hamilton, Marincin will all be just stepping into the AHL if the Oilers are lucky. There may be a few rookies on D like Plante or Petry ready to step in for the NHL team.
So if they play it right, on the NHL team they will have a bunch of placeholders in the bottom six who get replaced by the deadline by some rookies. They have maybe two rookies on D. Doesn't sound like a playoff team to me.
They could go out and trade some assets to get better quicker, but hopefully they read some of Brian Burke reviews before they do that.
Tambo seems pretty patient. And I think he looks at his Sheldon Souray dartboard and his Christmas card from Ilya Kovalchuk to remind him about the pitfalls of UFA signings.
I don't think anyone is expecting a deep playoff run next year, but I'm hoping a third consecutive trip to the lottery isn't the goal either.
ReplyDeleteThe kids need to play some meaningful Spring games and get their feet wet in pressure situations in order to take the team to the next level.
Now that I am thinking of it, I'm hopeful that next year, they keep a top 6 of Hemsky, Penner, Hall, Eberle, MPS, Horc, and Gagner (thats 7 but one is always hurt). They need to find a third line that can win faceoffs, check, and play physical. (I would put Cogs on the wing and get a good tough #3 C and tough winger from elsewhere.) The 4th line can be the catch all where they introduce rookies to soft minutes, have someone who can PK and keep a useful toughie.
ReplyDeleteSo question: If you agree with this where does Mr Omark go? I like his fancy pants stuff as much as the next guy, but so far I have been underwhelmed by his ability to forecheck or even carry the puck. I don't think he has a place on this team.
Both Foster and Vandermeer should be traded at the deadline for picks. I would still want a player for Smid. Plante and Smid would be an acceptable 3rd pairing next year. I would offer Smid 2 year at no more than $1.75 per season. But if the Oilers slot Smid as a third pairing guy, Smid probably asks for a trade.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with Foster on the powerplay is that the rest of the team doesn't shoot enough. In Tampa, as somebody mentioned, Stamkos was the primary shooter, which meant Foster's as 2nd option was effective. For Foster to be effective on the power play, Hemsky has to shoot a lot more from the half wall. Hell will freeze over before that happens. Whitney would have to shoot more often also. Without Hemsky and Whitney exercising shooting options on the PP, Foster is useless.
If I can get a pick for Jones at the deadline (with MBS picking), he's gonzo. With Pitlick, Hartikainen and Hamilton 1.5 years away, the only offer Jones should get is his qualifying offer. Like with Brule, 2 years would be one too many. Jones isn't physical, and can't kill penalties. He doesn't meet the most important criteria for his job.
Bummer that Marincin is out of the tournament, but legitimate payback of a cheap hit is in the long hockey (Howe-Messier) tradition. Kassian was just out targeting some random guy for a head shot. It wasn't a random guy for Marincin.
//Since when did a player getting a clean hit automatically start meaning the checking player was going to be offered a fight or get a filthy hit back?//
ReplyDeleteJacques can't turn down that fight with Rivet when the Oilers are behind, and playing poorly at home. He just can't.
I know, the automatic fight after the clean hit is somewhat stupid, but in the case last night, the team needed Jacques to oblige.
If I remember correctly Kassian is the one who punched another guy in the groin at TC (Gudbranson?)
ReplyDeleteAlso, the requirement for clearing waivers for a player returning from Europe IS the "Ruotsalainen Rule"...an anti-Oiler rule, just like the co-incident penalty rule.
ReplyDeleteAfter a couple of years as an Oiler, the regulat season got a little long for Rexy, so he would play in Europe until February, and then come back and help the Oilers during the stretch run and playoffs. It contributed to the last two Cups I believe. After the 1990 Cup, they introduced waivers for European players entering the NHL mid-season.
The other thing in that US/Slovakia game was context. They outshot the Slovaks 22/1 in the first period. The score is 6 - 2, so why is that Nimrod charging/boarding at that point in time? Have a bit of couth. Got a Tweeter, deservedly.
ReplyDeleteI think what we should do is hope for injuries every year and rack up a tonne of lottery picks because the #1 pick in 2013 will probably be better than Hall!
ReplyDeleteDennis: lol.
ReplyDeleteOn the Marincin hit, I'm fine with it. Buddy's dancing on your grave and grinding your D partner and it's rock and roll all night and party everyday.
Fuck 'em. Marincin was going to be the man in black in that scenario, might as well make it worth your while.
Looks like he did.
re jones:
ReplyDeletehopefully they take the lessons learned from glennx and brule to heart.
i think it's obvious we negotiate with jones now, before the deadline and before he pots 14. give him something secure so he doesn't want to worry about being passed over as a UFA in case he's actually on pace for 10 goals. is jones just learning to hit the pitching at this level, since he scored a bit before his NHL career?
you don't buy high! we should have sold brule at the deadline last year. undersized player who can't play big, because he's small and has an offensive season that can only be viewed as an abberation. i think he's scoring, but what else does he bring to a properly built team? he's not a natural bottom 6 and he's not a natural top 6 (like brule). ship him.
for me those are the two obvious situations. now we get to see how adept this mgt staff is. *cringe
With Pitlick, Hartikainen and Hamilton 1.5 years away, the only offer Jones should get is his qualifying offer.
ReplyDeleteUFAs don't get qualifying offers.
Anyone remember Lindros and his thundering checks into the boards? Then he met Scott Stevens and that was all.
ReplyDeleteI dream of someone setting up Ovie. A nice simple hip check or drive the shoulder into the floating ribs.
LT: Yeah, I see too many people longing for big injuries to key players and never considering what it might mean for longterm health of salary concerns and also perhaps thinking every year you get a magical player and one season you magically go from finishing 28th to winning two playoff rounds.
ReplyDeleteThere wouldn't be anything wrong with actually competing for a change but people are going right off the goddamn cliff in search of about 10 lottery picks.
I wonder if Edmonton ice has anything to do with the injuries. Hemsky got injured in practice and Whitney - didn't seem like anything happened.
ReplyDeleteDennis:
ReplyDeleteCall me a crazy optimist, but I think that the Oilers could go from where they are this year to a probable playoff team next season.
Assuming they cap out in 11/12 and sign the required veterans, etc.
""Assuming they cap out in 11/12 and sign the required veterans, etc.""
ReplyDeleteCapping out in 11/12 would be incredibly stupid because Hemsky, Penner, and Gagner need new contracts after that season, and Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi the season after that.
The Oilers need a solid top-four defensive defenseman, a third line centre, and a least one physical tough minute bottom six winger. One should look for value for money here. Don't overpay.
The available cap room is a mirage. It is like required for top six guys coming due in 2012 and 2013.
@Bos8: Vandermeer got hurt when his skate caught in a Rexall Rut®. It was clear on the video and JVM said as much later.
ReplyDeletegodot10:
ReplyDeleteSince when were one and two year contracts for UFA's banned?
EDM will have roughly 15 mil to spend on the UFA market filling 3 F and 2 D spots
How many quality free agents come at a bargain to a last place team and/or on only a one year deal?
ReplyDeleteGodot10:
ReplyDeleteNot many. But, the Oilers don't need many, the options get few for some players in August when looking for a job, and EDM can overpay in terms of money (though not in years, ideally) if they want given their situation.
By the time the July 1 rolls around, the situation might be a bit different too, maybe they can take some one year overpriced contracts on for a 7th rounder, etc, fill a hole or two that way.
There are lots of ways to fill roster holes if you've got money to burn.