Summer 2010: #8
Winter 2010: #9
Using math to place Anton Lander properly into the top 20 is almost impossible. For pure skill players, we can assess based on numbers, and the other factors (size, speed, etc) are somewhat universal. You're either fast or slow, tall or short, lean or stout. Anton Lander's best asset is the approval of the hockey men who've seen him. For a blog that loves math to place him this high, there must be a lot of verbal flowing.
It's an ocean.
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The scouting reports on his draft day:
- ISS: Lander is a two-way checking forward with excellent outside speed. He can make plays at full speed and controls the puck with a lot of confidence. A very unselfish player, Lander is always aware of where his teammates are and makes good crisp passes. He is a hard working forechecker, keeping his feet moving all the time. With a strong quick release wrist shot, he often uses d-men as a screen off the offensive rush. Lander drives the net hard with and without the puck and doesn’t quit on the puck until the whistle goes. Reliable and disciplined, he brings a consistent effort to the rink every game and always improves his team’s chances of winning a game. Will adapt and play any role given by coach."
- Elite Prospects: A very smart two-way player with excellent hockey sense. Lander reads the game well and makes mature decisions with and without the puck. Plays with some intensity, but his skating needs some improvement. Is a capable playmaker that protects the puck very well and usually comes out with the puck from the corners and along the boards. Defensively aware and with leadership skills.
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The biggest endorsement I've seen for Lander on this side of the pond comes from Stu MacGregor after they took him:
- "Very excited about Anton. He's a player we look at as a potential second-line centre with for sure third-line ability. He's a great faceoff man, competitive at both ends of the ice. Smart, captain of the Swedish under-18 team. All of our interviews with all of the Swedish players this past year, everybody spoke extremely high of him. Their leader was Anton Lander."
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Anton Lander's scouting reports suggest his skill set lends itself to a defensive role in the NHL. The question we have to ask is "will be bring enough offense?" Early returns this year are extremely encouraging:
- (Age 17) 47gp, 4-6-10 (.213) -2 40.28FO%
- (Age 18) 49gp, 7-9-16 (.327) -2 47.32FO%
- (Age 19) 26gp, 6-6-12 (.462) +1 46.63FO%
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Lander's press clippings are ridiculous. Seriously. The Swedes are just choosing their world junior team and this article has some beauty quotes:
- Coach Roger Ronnberg: "We have such a cool mix of different types of players on the forward side. Anton Lander is an incredibly important players. He is a great leader, and leads both Timra and national team."
I don't really have a strong math story for Anton Lander. His NHLE's suggest he'll deliver enough offense to be a solid 3rd line NHL center and the Swedes love him (both coaches and press). Unless they're lying to us, he looks like an excellent prospect.
I go back to Doug Jarvis. These kids (checkers) rarely show themselves as checkers this early on, and Jarvis was one of them. I'm not suggesting Lander will be Jarvis (a faceoff machine and extremely durable) but there's something happening here and math doesn't know what it is. If he ends up being what the scouting reports imply (heavy minutes checker who is a little shy offensively for minutes played but can win faceoffs and shutdown the toughs) then Samuel Pahlsson is his doppelganger.
Lander ranks #9 based on the glowing reports. We wait.
Interesting LT.
ReplyDeleteI love Lander, but I thought that Petry would have made your list by now.
SumOil: I would put Plante ahead of Petry at this time. Petry is 2 years older and he doesn't seem to be much ahead of plante at even strength if at all.
ReplyDeletePetry: -9
Plante: +2
Petry is apparently playing tougher minutes than Plante but he is getting killed doing it.
LT: is he killing penalties already? Him and young Pitlick are the guys I'm hanging my hopes on for our future faceoff, third line and PK leaders.
ReplyDeleteLander must be coming over next season. I'm excited to see him. I'm guessing It will be a fight between Lander and Pitlick next year. And prbably both will be a Baron.
ReplyDeleteWell Petry was -8 in his first 8 or so games and he has been even since then. Furthermore, I havent seen any evidence to see that Plante has been facing th toughs. On the contrary, I was under the impression that it is Petry and Belle who were facing the toughs
ReplyDeleteDennis: It's Pitlick or Chris Van De Velde. If either of these guy's pan out, we will really have something special here.
ReplyDeleteSumOil/Anonymous:
ReplyDeleteAlex Plante
Oct: -2 Nov: +4
Jeff Petry
Oct: -8 Nov: -1
Both improved their defensive prowess from month to month. Without the stats or anecdotal evidence to say who's playing the tough opposition, I'll take the dude who's putting up the points, and Petry's killing Plante in that department.
For the record, I'll have said anecdotal evidence tomorrow when I check out the Barons playing the Moose.
On Lander, he had a great November and he'll definitely get a letter in the upcoming U-20s. The real question in my mind is whether we can get him to come over next year. He seems like he's got a bit of a Riley Nash complex.
dorito:
ReplyDeleteHe'll either get signed and come over (though maybe he could be loaned back to SWE, I'm not sure?), or EDM will lose him as property.
He goes back into the draft if he's not signed by the June 1, 2011 deadline.
I don't think it's really anything like Nash. Nash was traded away 3 years after being selected, Lander is only a year and 5 months since his draft, and will be resolved by June one way or another.
Lander was already here for one rookie tourney. He'll be here or on the Barons next year. The guy is destined to either wear an "A" or the "C" on his jersey.
ReplyDeleteOn the contrary, I was under the impression that it is Petry and Belle who were facing the toughs
ReplyDeleteI heard the head coach last week and he said Chorney was his go to guy.
LT - you neglected to mention his 'A' at age 18 for Timra.
ReplyDeleteWhitney Watch: Now 9 points out of the all-time record for most points in a season without a single goal (29, by Jimmy Thompson, a record which has stood since 1947/48). Once the dude hits 30 assists, I'm praying for season-ending injury.
ReplyDeleteNo bigger picture repercussions to that wish, right? :)
Riley Nash comment is a bit redonk, Lander showed maturity by stating that he wasn't ready to come over to North America and I respect the hell out of him, I honestly don't think it's too far fetched to have a future 3rd line of Hamilton Lander and either Pitlick or Omark
ReplyDeleteI have watched every OKC game, and it is always Petry/Belle getting the tough minutes. When Belle was up with the big club, I realluy liked the pairing of Petry/Chorney, they both respect each others offensive ability but are willing to cover for eachother, more so than Petry/Belle. I also believe that LOWETIDE is the biggest Petry hater ever. The kid is in the top 20 in D scoring in the AHL as a 22 yr old, and never respects him in his prospects ratings, even tho the hockey news believes hes a top 100 prospect
ReplyDeleteYESSS!!! Lowetide, I love your blog, but you're biased to players in the CHL, and dont appreciate NCAA players. The fact that you havent given Petry or Vandevelde their due is ridiculous. As for Petry, it is tough to be in the top 10 in rookie scoring as a d-man. Lowetide, you've hated Petry, VV and every American prospect from the beginning.
ReplyDeleteAnon: Alright, Petry justgot docked 5 points mister! Would you like to try for 10????? :-)
ReplyDeleteLT: lol Figures you'd get to teach the unruly class.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous went bonkers today.
ReplyDeleteI also fully endorse LT's obvious hatred for all things American.
ReplyDeleteIf Lander is the real deal (and with years of accolades about his character there is no reason to think he isn't) then FINALLY the 3C hunt will be over.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately he won't be ready to be counted on there for at least 2 years, and that's an optimistic number.
Lander is on the record as being "very impressed" with the Oilers organization and his experience at the Oiler rookie camp.
He'll be here next year.
It is pretty hard not to be a fan after watching the past two games and reading this top 20. Thanks LT.
ReplyDeleteThe buzz around Lander is getting to be like that around Roger Staubach when he was doing his Navy stint.
LT:
ReplyDeleteWell, I don't have a built in thing, like Gabe Desjardins does, that combines my work on individal scoring chances plus/minus (ISC +/-) with Quality of Competition and Quality of Teammate, which are hugely important filters to view any stat.
If there's one thing I'm not, it's a math guy, so I have wouldn't know how to come up with a number to combine ISC plus/minus with QualComp and QualTeam. I wish I could.
For now, I just say something like a player is doing well or poorly by in ISC plus/minus, and then will refer to QualComp and QualTeam numbers, as you must always keep such things in mind.
Of course, the season is early, and Gabe bases his QualComp numbers on team plus/minus, and that's a wonky, low-event stat, so I don't make too much of his numbers until laterin the season. BTW, I do think Gabe's numbers, over a full season, are generally fair and accurate for QualComp and QualTeam, and I applaud his work on this front (as well as so much of the other stuff he does).
I'd love to see a QualComp or QualTeam based on NHL league-wide ISC plus/minus, but I understand how difficult it would be to get reliable league-wide numbers on a subjective stat like ISC plus/minus.
My apologies for posting that comment in this thread. I thought it was going to go at the end of the last thread, but it popped up here.
ReplyDeleteIn any case, here is a chart for Oil's main wingers that shows how they are doing when it comes to individual scoring chances, as compared to my old work. Not completely sure what to make of individual scoring chance data yet, as I have little to compare it too.
https://docs.google.com/Doc?docid=0ARMC4T3agcfmZDQ2cTRxOF83NWdmOWM5dmht&hl=en
It will be important next year, as part of Lander and others' development, that we secure a smart, veteran 3C. I know this has been important result-wise since the departure of Mr. Peca, but it becomes important for the development of our young talent next year, so I sure hope they do it. If he's a European who successfully transitioned to NA as well, that's a bonus.
ReplyDeleteLooks like they know a player when they see one...we hope...
I don't know much about Lander apart from what I have learned from the press and blogs, but everyone talks about and upstanding, honest, hard-working player. One of my contacts with the Hurricanes organization told me recently that they are excited about Nash but a little concerned about some "entitlement" he has shown since arriving there. Seems like these are two different guys in terms of character.
ReplyDeleteAnton Lander. Sounds like some sort of super villain from a Die Hard movie.
ReplyDeleteDavid Staples: So how does your measurement (as it now looks) differ from Dennis King over at mc79?
ReplyDeleteAlso, I agree completely on the difficulty of qualcomp/teammates and how it is measured. I have real concerns about Gabe's toughness rankings and have had since MacT left (MacTavish seemed to hard match more and now it seems everyone faces everyone).
Anyway, my main concern is that we come away saying "Shawn Horcoff is more effective in the error/corsi department than Sam Gagner" but that doesn't really give us much information. He SHOULD be better.
So, we need to fill in the blanks. Is Gagner better than players on other teams in similar situations? That kind of thing.
We're getting there, and I do like the fact that you're measuring all chances. The more I think about it the more I'm coming to the conclusion that we need a Bill James project scoresheet for all 30 teams.
i look forward to a sverige line. lander flanked by mps and omark. the three will likely be good enough to represent their country for years to come, hopefully they get a shot on this side of the pond
ReplyDeleteLT, do you think it's any coincidence that on the night you post your Lander piece that Jimmy Hamrin (Timra's equivalent of Bruce's work at EJ) posts this bit on Lander's play in a 7-3 loss: "After having followed him every week since he was 14 years, I can say I've never seen him do a worse game than today."
ReplyDelete(http://blog.st.nu/tikare/2010/12/02/att-det-hander-hemma-gor-ondast/)
Lander's a hell of a player, likely to be Captain of the WJHC team, recognizes his own limits, and is dedicated to improving his play. His rationale, at least publicly, for not signing here in the summer was that we wasn't good enough and wanted to be a better player before coming over. He accepted a contract with TIK for less than market value so they could sign more players. I read somewhere (can't find the piece now) that he has worked hard to improve his strength, conditioning, and skating since the summer. He gains exceptional praise from his coaches in TIK and at the Tre Kronor level. Leads all TIK F's in TOI.
He's a beauty, and there's little doubt that he will be effective at the NHL level.
The important question I have is does Lander use the right length of stick and does he know how to hold it properly?
ReplyDeleteI think I hold mine properly. How can I tell if I'm doing it wrong?
ReplyDeleteRe: Lander...
ReplyDeleteSounds like the kid has everything upstairs, but the issue is going to be whether he can skate well enough ot play at this level and whether he will have enough size and strength. Personally I prefer my 3C Apples to fall off the Otto Tree but I'm okay with Peca Pears too.
And I suspect Lander can't skate like Peca. Looking forward to this WJC though, for another look.
ReplyDeleteOrganizational depth is all about having options over the coming years -- and it looks like that 3C, 4C group includes:
ReplyDeleteIf we assume the Oil Change 1, 3, 5 year markets
Y1 - is 2010-11
Y2 - is 2011-12
Y3 - is 2012-13
Y4 - is 2013-14
Y5 - is 2014-15
Cogliano - Y1, option in Y2
Fraser - Y1, option in Y2
Omarra - option in Y2
Lander - Y2 in AHL, option in Y3
van de Velde - option in Y2 or Y3
Pitlick - Y2 in AHL, option in Y3
Allows the organization the ability to bring guys along slowly, and provide options in the lineup as each RFA or EL contract expires.
I don't know how I feel about LT using my full name.
ReplyDeleteIt almost seems like he's calling me to the principal's office;)
And while it's nice to think that some of these kids can kill penalties and win faceoffs it's important that we find people with hair on their backs who can do it while these kids learn their craft.
Jason Gregor thinks I'm the only one who believes it's a big story that the Oilers can't kill a penalty but I don't know if he's right about that.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDennis - Usually if it's what Jason Gregor thinks, the opposite is true. I wouldn't worry about it.
ReplyDeleteBy the numbers, at least superficially, he's looking a lot like Samuel Pahlsson did post-draft. Lander is also described very much in the same way in terms of two way play and faceoff ability. Plus, both being LH swedish centermen lends itself to the comparison.
ReplyDeleteIf he turns out to be the same kind of player, I think it's still great value in the 2nd round. Let's just hope he doesn't take 9 years to get there like Pahlsson.
The fact that Jeff Petry isn't even in the top 10 just goes to show the kind of year it's been and how deep the prospect pool is.
Dennis please ask Derek Zona how much PK is discussed over at C&B. funny thing is that only at ON the fiasco that is our PK is kinda neglected.
ReplyDeleteON: Where FISTs are King and FACTs get the FINGER.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI think I hold mine properly. How can I tell if I'm doing it wrong?
ReplyDeleteIf it starts to chaff, you're holding your stick wrong.
What? You didn't think Pat was the only one who could comment on masturbation, did you?
LM: Oh, I'm not worried in the least:) I just wanted to stick in the needle a a little bit at the tunnel-vision that's long infested the MSM.
ReplyDeleteThey didn't talk about the PK before we got on a little run and now if that continues they'll never talk about it even if we're still giving up a goal a game.
Wow, George Johnson lost it today:)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.faceoff.com/hockey/teams/calgary-flames/story.html?id=3920417
Thanks for the link Dennis, great stuff.
ReplyDeleteRemember the time that guy from the Journal tore Lowe and Tambo a new one over how they ran the Oielrs into the ditch? That was awesome.
Oh right that never happened.
Must have been the guy from the Sun.
Hmm.
Radio guy?
Oh never mind.
The only question after the win last night was whether the wails from Calgary or Toronto would be louder this morning.
ReplyDeleteA couple of years ago, someone told the Calgary players that the road to the playoffs was to beat the Oilers, and they believed it.
A little riff from the center of the universe on eau d'hinde banana, but no competition against Johnson throwing open the doors on the cattle barn.
http://www.torontosun.com/sports/hockey/2010/12/02/16410256.html
Winner scattledome.
Dennis only reads my stuff when I disagree with him. I think.
ReplyDeleteI just connected on Twitter with a Swedish follower of Cult of Hockey, so natch I asked him about Lander. He replied:
ReplyDeleteOn Lander: well, Timra have been very up and down but Lands is one of their better players for sure. Timra-fans trying to pursue him not to to World Juniors, they tend to think their game without Lander would sink Timra. And his game have been more solid then numbers tell. Fans love him
So ... indispensible to Timra. Love the line "his game ... more solid than numbers tell". Cuz the numbers are pretty darn good: his NHLE is currently running something like 16-16-32, which ain't too shabby for a young, defensive minded player.
One of the things that I suspect kept him in Sweden was his commitment to a younger brother that he is more or less raising, as I understand the story. Don't know how old that kid is, but I would imagine that weighed on Anton's decision to stay home for one more year.
This guy is my favourite prospect in the whole system who's not already with the Oilers. Nobody anywhere has said a bad word about him, ever.
My biggest concern here is that Strudwick is very good in the room.
ReplyDeleteI don't mean this as a knock against you LT, but speaking in generalities, hockey folk are simply not that good at objectively defining players with "intangibles" in terms of the more important tangibles.
Coach PB:
ReplyDeleteOnly a few months ago you said you would trade Lander + MPS/Eberle for Weiss in a "heartbeat".
Still feel the same way? (lulz)