This is the strongest group of Oiler prospects I can recall. The 79-81 Oilers top 20 would have been better but after that this group must be the best. Potential and upside fall under the "If Wishes were Horses" category and we must know that some of these young men will falter. I think Oiler fans deserve good news by the tonne at this point in franchise history, so this list celebrates the future whatever it may be for the Copper and Blue.
- Taylor Hall: Since we're new to the #1 overall stuff, most Oiler fans were tentative in their projections of the future. Kid gloves, don't push him, speak in hushed tones. No pressure. That's quickly being replaced by excitement and some real faith in the Oilers future, maybe even some swagger from the Oilers fan. Taylor Hall has accomplished a lot since June and he's just getting started. How high can he fly? He may never reach the ground.
- Jordan Eberle: Hockey's James Sidis is so far ahead of the competition when it comes to thinking the game it's scary. Eberle doesn't have the hardest shot, is not the fastest man on skates and is not known for feats of strength, but he has an uncanny ability to make the right play, position himself in the right place and adlib based on circumstance. We may run out of adjectives.
- Magnus Pääjärvi: We're still trying to figure out the kid from Norrkoping. He has tremendous open ice speed, soft hands and the frame to compete in all areas. He's a bit of a perimeter player currently, but also has excellent instincts defensively (and in fact does many things you associate with a center: first man back very often, etc). I don't know where he'll slot eventually and at this point it doesn't matter.He's his own man and productive even at this early stage of his career.
- Martin Marincin: The first defenseman on this year's list, he came out of nowhere once the season began. Marincin is displaying a wide range of skills and counts size and wingspan on his resume. The Oilers badly need a "complete" defensemen from their system and Marincin may answer their prayers.
- Theo Peckham: Teddy Peckman began the fall as a bubble player. The Oilers decided not to risk waivers despite an average training camp and have been rewarded by quality play. Punishing hitter, Peckham is a welcome sight: an Oiler draft who can play defense. Although technically not a rookie, his emergence and quick move up the depth chart may make room for a rookie D soon.
- Curtis Hamilton: Health is the big difference for the Saskatoon Blades winger. He's among the league leaders in points, plus minus and assists. His invite to the WJ selection camp was good news; the fact that he made the roster is music. He's a perfect fit for team need and could be fast tracked to pro's if he finishes strong this season.
- Tyler Pitlick: Big forward with a nice range of skills. It took him a little time to adjust to the WHL, but a 7-game point scoring streak has him north of a point-per-game pace on the season. Pitlick wasn't extended an invitation to the WJC by the USA team, which has to be viewed as a disappointment.
- Linus Omark: The best interview on the top 20 list, Omark has a welcome touch of show business. He may have limitations to his game, but his strengths have garnered an NHL audiiton. I don't have any idea how the Oilers could send him down at this point in time.
- Anton Lander: The modern Doug Jarvis has been stepping up his offensive game this season. His reputation as a 2-way center is welcome news for the current Edmonton Oilers and I think he has a chance to make the big club next fall. If he can impact the faceoff battle, we could see Lander in an Oiler uniform next season.
- Alex Plante: Toughness and a relatively smooth transition to pro game places him ahead of a few defensemen in OKC. Has displayed a willingness to mix it up and may get a boost because he's a somewhat similar player to Peckham on a team that badly needs physical people who can actually play the game at NHL level.
- Devan Dubnyk: Big man has been very impressive with the NHL Oilers this season. Coach Renney will need to use him more in the second half of the year or risk injury to the aging Khabibulin. The jury is still out on DD's ability to be an NHL starter for an extended period but he's earned the right to audition.
- Jeff Petry: Big defender with speed and mobility, he plays an intelligent game. Used extensively on the OKC powerplay, his EV numbers are comparable to the other Barons blue. He might get his call to the show in the next couple of days.
- Ryan Martindale: Center with size and skill having a breakout season in the very strong OHL. Injured ankle has derailed him for December and he was not part of the WJ selection camp. Martindale's issues (desire, consistency) have been answered in a big way this season. If he can keep it going, the Oilers might have a top 6F in Martindale.
- Chris Vande Velde: Big college center turned pro this fall. He had a strong training camp with the big club but has been subpar since being sent to the AHL. When the Oilers recalled O'Marra and Omark, the push went to the Finn Hartikainen and others. Vande Velde remained on a secondary line in what has been a disappointing season. VV has the size and strength (plus FO ability) the Oilers are looking for in their forwards, but he's hitting well below the Mendoza line.
- Olivier Roy: Athletic goalie has run hot and cold this season in the Q. Started off well but was average to poor for a long stretch before recovering recently. Chosen as one of two WJ goaltenders for Canada, a strong WJ's might propel him to a strong second half.
- Taylor Chorney: He's done exactly what was required: recovered his career by playing solid defense in the AHL. His pro career has been chaotic for several reasons, the big one being the organization pushed him due to injury and shortsightedness. Chorney has been paired wth Alex Plante for much of the season and it's a tandem that has performed well. Chorney's well down the depth chart now and would have to be considered a bit of a long shot for the Oilers, but he may have a career after all.
- Teemu Hartikainen: Big Finn had an immediate impact on the AHL powerplay. Since the O'Mark/ra recall to the NHL, he's been playing a bigger role overall and the results are impressive (4gp, 2-3-5 +5). His 5 powerplay goals lead AHL rookies. If I started this list today, Hartikainen would be higher in the rankings based on his season (somewhere in the 13-15 range).
- Brandon Davidson: Part of the very strong 2010 draft, Davidson is a puck mover who developed late (or at least got his opportunity at an older age). He's having his second straight solid year in the WHL and is posting very good numbers at even strength. He's an interesting prospect.
- Jeremie Blain: Taken deep in the draft, he's battled injuries early but posts crooked numbers when he's playing. His QMJHL team relies on him heavily despite his youth and inexperience.
- Tyler Bunz: Breakout season for WHL goalie. His SP is among the best in the league and he's backstopping the Tigers to an impressive record. If defensemen develop by sundial then goalies do it slower than molasses in January. He's making progress.
- Shawn Belle: Barely missed the top 20. Belle has a nice size/speed combination and I think he's going to play north of 200 games in the NHL. I just don't know if it'll be as an Oiler. They have a lot of options and the organization is waiting for kids like Petry and Plante. There is a window of opportunity for him, though. It's right now.
- Johan Motin: I think the Oilers might have a player here, but he's a subtle bugger. Motin appears to be a third-pairing, low event AHL defenseman at age 21. He's probably going to have to watch auditions by Petry, Plante, Chorney (again) and possibly Marincin before getting an extended NHL look. The nature of the hockey business suggests he may bolt for Europe once he's an rfa in summer 2012. I think there's a player here.
- Ryan O'Marra: Getting another NHL look as we speak, it's a reflection of his ability that the one NHL team in dire need of a right-handed checker sent him away during training camp. O'Marra doesn't bring enough offense (well below the Mendoza line in the AHL before this season) and there aren't many people who are going to impact 5x5 offense on his line (maybe Omark). He's getting his chance now, but I don't think he'll stay up when the injured men return.
- Milan Kytnar: I've mentioned Scott Reynolds excellent work here a few times during the top 20 discussion, and Kytnar is a freak on the forward list. It jives with some comments I've read here and there.
- Toni Rajala: He's not having a great season but the kid has lots of skill and speed. Plus he's a typical Finn (no fear) so I suspect we'll hear from him again.
- Guys like Liam Reddox and Jeff Deslauriers have graduated. A rule of thumb is 50 NHL games for skaters and 30 for goaltenders.
- The graduating class for 2010-11 is going to be spectacular: Hall, Eberle, Magnum, Peckman, Dubnyk, possibly Omark and there'a s rumor Petry gets recalled today. We should remember the 10-11 season for the quality and depth that arrived from the procurement department.
- There are a number of guys not listed who are doing fine (Bigos, Dee) but there are also some cracks in the machine (Cornet, Abney, Hesketh). You never want to write off prospects this early, but things are not going well for these fellows.
- From the summer list, Johan Motin (#17) and Toni Rajala (#20) were flushed; Brandon Davidson and Tyler Bunz were added.
- I argued for Colin McDonald here, but he is not on the Oilers 50-man list so is technically not a part of the Edmonton Oilers at this team. I would like to thank the Canadian Bar Association (many of whom appear to be screwing the pooch at this blog during working hours) for pointing it out.
- The current list is overundersidewaysdown compared to one year ago. Gone from last winter's list are Riley Nash, Phil Cornet, Ryan Stone, Toni Rajala, Cody Wild, Colin McDonald, Slava Trukhno and Troy Hesketh. That's a lot of turnover, but the new hires shine brightly compared to those who were left behind/fell off the list.
- I'll be spending a lot of time documenting the 2011 entry draft starting in the new year. I think Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor is a little easier to predict than Kevin Prendergast or the desert fox in later years.
- Among the current Oiler prospects invited to last season's NHL scouting combine: Tyler Bunz, Brandon Davidson, Taylor Hall, Curtis Hamilton, Martin Marincin, Ryan Martindale, Tyler Pitlick. That's 7 players, all of them on the current top 20. Incredible. We should pay attention to that list when it comes out in the spring.
Merry Christmas everyone, and God bless you. I hope you get what you want for Christmas, please don't drink or toke and drive.
Some of those Animals were Yardbirds. Thanks for the subtle 60s lyrics references.
ReplyDeleteThe advent of hope and joy, and the Peckman-inspired absence of peace and love, are welcome changes from the darkness of last season.
And Merry Christmas to the lawyers, too.
Thanks for doing the list LT, it's always one of my favorite reads. Speaking as an almost lawyer, the big Swedish kid is a 'perimeter' player.
ReplyDeleteJames
You've transferred your Smid hate to Hartikainen. That makes me sad.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteCoach: Not so. He's overcome a lot since draft day (speed issues) and now appears to be finding the range offensively in the AHL. Lots of good arrows.
ReplyDelete*standing ovation*
ReplyDeleteExcellent work again sir.
MBS is making the job of Oiler GM the easiest gig in the business.
I really hope v3.0 is up to the task.
As I said last night LT thanks for this. Always enjoyable.
ReplyDeleteIts such a positive to see this year's graduates compared to those of the past. Not AHL tweeners but actual honest to goodness NHL players.
Its a beautiful thing.
Great job LT.
ReplyDeleteLander is 7-7-14 in 30gp w/ Timra
Rajala is 6-6-12 in 22gp w/ Ilves
Are we not being a little too hard on Rajala who is in his first season playing against men? Or perhaps too high on Lander?
Rajala has also struggled with an injury
ReplyDeleteAh, I know LT. I'm just messin' with you.
ReplyDeleteIf Hartikainen ends the season with 45 points, where do you place him on this list, all else remaining equal?
Coach: I'd have a hard time keeping him out of the top 10 if he delivered 50 points.
ReplyDeleteThere's a subtle distance there (imo) between Lander at 9 and Plante at 10. Petry is having a nice season, so I'd probably move him up and Hartikainen would get a strong push to.
So he'd be fighting it out with Petry for #10 imo. He's already improved his skating and has shown some offensive ability on the PP in a specific role.
But if he can score goals at 5x5? At his size? Yeah, he'd be top 10.
This list was an early Christmas present. Thanks so much for the time (and thanks to all the rest of you for the great comments sections).
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteFinns, Finns, Finns, Finns!!!!
ReplyDeleteA team without Finns is a team without soul.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGreat job as always LT. I thoroughly enjoy reading this and am amazed at how far the top 20 has come in a very short period of time.
ReplyDeleteObviously, MBS is solid at procurement - even beyond the obvious (Hall over Seguin). And development has taken a big step forward as the org has recognized that doing it by free agency is not a smart long-term strategy.
Swedes and Finns. All we need is a few Danes and Norwegians and we'll have all of Scandinavia represented.
Hanskaliva MBS!
A team without Finns is a team without soul.
ReplyDeleteAmen.
I'd like to give Renney some credit here.
ReplyDeleteNo head games with any of the the players, doesn't play favourites, totally approachable from all indications, willing to protect the kids instead of bleating to the press about their deficiencies, as well as giving each member of the the team a game plan straight out of training camp.
I still can't believe how quiet the media has been about the last game.
ReplyDeleteHave rookies ever scored 10 points in a game before?
Law *student*, LT, not *lawyer* - what are these "working hours" of which you speak?
ReplyDeleteI'll echo everyone else's thanks for the list. Everything I know about Oilers' prospects I learn from you. I hope you find that responsibility sufficiently sobering.
I'd like to give Renney some credit here.
ReplyDeleteThis is obviously hypothetical, so take it with a grain of salt, but I think MacTavish would have done pretty well in this situation too: as far as I can tell, his boss's refusal to give him any Actual NHL Players made him go insane and pretend that Peterson and Reddox were first liners and power play stallions.
Renney is also short of actual NHL players, but at least he has a clear job: develop the rookies. MacTavish lacked that clear mandate - as far as I can tell, he was supposed to be making the playoffs, and the front office made that essentially impossible. Maybe if he'd had a fulfillable job description like Renney does, he wouldn't have lost his mind.
(MacTavish's irrational hatred for Penner is a black mark against him, but Renney's got the hate on for Stortini. Granted, an irrational hatred of Penner is probably going to damage the team more than an irrational hatred of Stortini, unless the latter causes Bruce to firebomb Rexall or something.)
I like what Renney's doing here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=345905
Slats used to say that the expectation breaking camp was the same each year - win the Cup. Certainly putting that expectation on the lads now would be foolhardy, but it's nice to see the org setting some goals and putting them out there for public consumption. Kind of lays waste to the tank for the lottery perception. If that's Tambi's goal, he's certainly not sharing it with Renney.
LT
ReplyDeleteRealize this may not be a popular view but is Peckham's ceilng a 3rd pairing on a good team? Very much appreciate his toughness and ability to make noticeable hit within the flow off a game.
I just think he may be loved for 2 things: (1)exceeding all reasonable expectations by a mile;and (2) by adding an element of toughness within the flow of a game. The latter is completely missing on this team. JF Jacques hitting someone 3 seconds after they have passed may be a hit but it is not within the flow of a game
Woodguy
Not sure that the Magnificient Bastard may actually be making Tambellini's life a living hell moving forward. ST will have to assess and select from a wide selection of skilled assets he wants to keep and pay. Not sure ST has ever shown that ability and God knows Lowe did not.
That is why Rick Dudley was able to steal some highly skilled players this summer for the Thrashers
LT, if Roy were to start & star in the WJC, where would that put him on the list in your mind? 10th? 11th?
ReplyDeleteLT, if Roy were to start & star in the WJC, where would that put him on the list in your mind? 10th? 11th?
ReplyDeleteProbably depends on his views on sample sizes.
I think it has more to do with pedigree than it does sample size. Starring in the WJC is something Dubnyk never did, so you would think Roy doing so would rate him a notch about DD as a goalie prospect.
ReplyDeleteDevelopment isn't just a factor of games played, it's also key milestones achieved.
above not about (sic)
ReplyDeleteDevelopment isn't just a factor of games played, it's also key milestones achieved.
ReplyDeleteMilestones that demonstrate sustain are much more useful than those that don't.
I'm sorry - any coach that has inner and outer circles on a team is an oxymoron. Mactavish qualified.
ReplyDeleteMacT at one point basically said that once the other team takes the game to the wall, anything else the team was doing well ceased to matter.
ReplyDeleteSo he goes to the tool shed, finds an assortment of watchmakers screwdrivers, a jewelers' Lupul, and one jumbo pipe wrench made out of nylon. He tries to right the ship with the pipe wrench, the nylon jaws buckle and shimmy, then he has a personal melt down.
If the team was consistently loosing the game on the wall, whatever else Penner was accomplishing wasn't helping them win games where it mattered most.
I have yet to decide in the bad cop, good cop dynamic between MacT and OTC who got the most out of Penner in his break-out season.
I think what MacT was saying (publicly) to one Dustin Penner was that one way or the other, it was going to the wall. Your terms or mine. Choose.
I also think given MacT's own career, he had personal conviction that couldn't be drilled out in an eternity that when a championship team is being beaten in any critical aspect of the game, that the player most capable of doing something about it steps manfully into the breach.
What he wanted to say in the dressing room was "Dustin is busting his hump to win the game on the wall single-handed, the rest of you should feel ashamed for not supporting the puck and capitalizing the opportunities his selfless sacrifice creates for the rest of you". He could have run a classified ad "one excellent motivational speech, rarely used, looking for a good home."
Isn't that the psychology of a winning team? Not letting your teammates down?
I fault MacT more for not heading off the locker room psychology that lead to unloading Jarret Stoll and Raffi Torres. Although Raffi did recently admit waiting to be signed by the Nucks that maybe he should stop worrying about his linemates and just play hockey. Did some of the players ultimately blame MacT for failings of the front office?
I think where MacT was unrealistic was trying to translate his extensive playoff experience into the regular season. He never had to compete as a player at playoff intensity during the regular season just to make the playoffs.
He was trying to get modern players against bigger, faster, stronger, fitter opponents to play at the twenty-five game pace for 82 games.
Sorry coach, we're fresh out of "next level". MacT never played on a team fresh out of next level. Next levels that became the stuff of legend.
The great thing about the trap in the modern game is that the trap can be competently played with a flask of "next level" in your hip pocket. Too bad the Wings fumbled with their Mickeys for six games in the first round. Hard not to spill the magic elixir when you're playing in traffic. That's the risk you take in the other direction.
Wonderful - a MacTavish debate.
ReplyDeleteSince MacT never impressed me as being intelligent(more like a cat, which although fairly stupid by doing nothing appears wise was my impression), nor did many of his supposedly witty post game remarks make me smile either.
Unlike Renney, who I personally watched turn the moribund Rangers from league laughing stock into a semi-decent playoff team immediately, MacT basically achieved zilch for the Oilers, in eight bloody years of trying. Yes yes yes he was constrained, but nothing like Schremp, Mikhnov, Rita, Salmalainnan(sorry I always forget these spellings after they cease to be relevant) were under his petty regime.
Depends whether you're looking for the next Mike Gartner or the next Claude Lemieux. It may be a small sample size but the WJC is incredibly important because it reveals the player's mettle under pressure. Eberle showed the world what he had in the WJC and it's been borne out in the pros. The problem with your logic is that a player could be an absolutely wonderful player over the regular season and playoffs, who then disappears when his team needs him most - in the Final. In other words, all that regular season 'sustain' amounted to nil.
ReplyDeleteI would hope the Oilers are looking for prospects capable of winning Stanley Cups. Small sample size? Whatever. The WJC offers a wonderful opportunity to evaluate a player from the perspective of whether he can perform at the highest level when it matters most. Fortunately NHL scouts realize the magnitude of these milestones. I would hate to think of our procurement run purely on the basis of bean counting best practices.
Of course had they won game 7 in 2006 all would have been forgiven; but to paraphrase a certain B. Davis in a certain Robert Aldrich movie: "But you DIDN'T win game seven, did you?"
ReplyDeleteDepends whether you're looking for the next Mike Gartner or the next Claude Lemieux.
ReplyDeleteClutching Claude.
I'm open to being convinced that this "clutch" thing is a real phenomenon, but nobody's persuaded me yet (mind you, nobody's really tried very hard either).
At what point do we A) start talking about the Magnificent Bastard as a possible NHL GM and B) start worrying about other teams poaching him for said position?
ReplyDeleteSeems to me this guy is crucial to our stated philosophy of drafting and developing. I'm sure there are ways to move him up the ladder within the orginization and perhaps Katz's checkbook comes into play as well, but sooner or later someone is going to take notice.
Damn this thread caught fire. Okay:
ReplyDelete1. MBS stays in his current role. The Red Wings don't move people around all the time, they keep people in the positions they're most effective.
2. The next GM of the Edmonton Oilers is Kevin Lowe.
3. I've enjoyed Renney's coaching so far this year but he's far from perfect. He has to make a stand on people like Jacques and Strudwick, and if he's not part of the solution he's part of the problem. You can't play favorites with nig league jobs..
4. MacT was an excellent coach and took the only balanced team Kevin Lowe gave him to G7 SCF. I feel no need to compare him to Renney this early and no need to defend MacT against those who have long since made up their minds.
I believe Craig MacTavish was an excellent coach for the Oilers. Not perfect, excellent. He would have benefitted from a more active GM who solved problems, something which Tom Renney will come to know all too well.
LT,
ReplyDeleteI agree MBS SHOULD stay in his current role. The question is whether he has ambitions or designs on something else.
SS, can you find any data to support the fact the Mike Gartner was a better player than Claude Lemieux when it mattered most? If not, my point holds.
ReplyDeleteThe difference between you and I is I actually watch the games and don't base the bulk of my assessment on stats alone. You should try it. You'll find that stats in tandem with visual evaluation is a powerful combination.
If nothing else, it would prevent you from questioning the obvious playoff pedigree of a player who won the Conn Smythe, 4 Stanley Cups, is one of only 10 players to win the Cup with 3 different teams and finished his career NINTH OVERALL IN PLAYOFF GOALS.
Yep, there's nothing there to support the argument that Lemieux was a big game player. Dolt.
I listened to the Medicine Hat game last night,while doing other things, (great thing internet). Heard Pitlick's name that caught my attention - drop pass on the first goal. Love drop passes, especially by young kids. Breakaway that missed, another positive play, read the ice and react. A shot off the post - has a shot that beat the goaltender. Listening to games is great as a background - prevents me from yelling at the TV as in Brule and the brain dead numbnuts.
ReplyDeleteYep, there's nothing there to support the argument that Lemieux was a big game player. Dolt.
ReplyDeleteThat's generally the response I get. I find it unpersuasive.
Since this is becoming an issue in this thread, I just want to say that "small sample size" is a monster consideration.
ReplyDeleteThe more information available and the longer you track it, the more reliable the data. Right?
It's the reason I wanted to marry my wife sooner than later. :-)
Let's keep it real.
ReplyDeleteDellow's law:* As a debate about hockey grows longer, the probability of a participant substituting "Watch the damned games!" for an argument approaches one.
ReplyDelete* I don't think Tyler Dellow has ever posited this, but he seems an appropriate namesake.
So, weighing sample size into the equation...Given that Roy's arrows have been tracking in the right direction for a long period, that in conjunction with him excelling at the WJC drags him up a notch or two on the prospect list?
ReplyDeleteSS's misdirection aside, I'm not making the argument to evaluate Roy on the basis of the WJC alone, simply that a stellar performance would be yet more arrows on top of an already impressive development curve.
This is the problem with trolls. They like to take things out of context.
Let's keep it real.
ReplyDeleteOh, very well - I'll be nice.
Lee: I think you bring up a great point, but honestly WJC goalies don't have a lot of sustain. Pogge beat out Dubnyk and at this point I don't even know if he's employed.
ReplyDeleteWhich means, and hold back your water Gene Principe, he could be on Pogge as we speak.
I disagree on Mactavish as
ReplyDeletean excellent coach. Billy Moores was a great technical coach. A head coach's job is to evaluate and manage the team. Head Coaching is identifying team strengths and optimising results by playing to those strengths. To create a team. Mactavish failed this first commandment. For example - Sather's strength was recognising his own limitations. He didn't try to coach the PP. He let the troops go out and improvise. That was a team strength.
Careful who you get into an argument with there Steve. The last time Lee used his eyes to tell us something, he was trying to convince us all that Tom Gilbert was among the worst defencemen in NHL history.
ReplyDeleteNice one LT :)
ReplyDeleteBos8: You saw the sisters of the poor MacT was dragging from town to town, right?
ReplyDeleteLT
ReplyDeleteawesome work as always...and to your last point about well wishes...i just have to say that as big and vast as the internet is, this is the place where i feel most "at home" and thanks for keeping it going as long and as strong as you have.
much appreciated...and if anyone is in yyc and wants to go see some hitmen games when the prospects are in town, just let me know.
Actually RG, I was making the argument that Tom Gilbert was playing like a mediocre defenseman at the time, which he was. Proper context, it's your friend.
ReplyDeleteActually RG, I was making the argument that Tom Gilbert was playing like a mediocre defenseman at the time, which he was.
ReplyDeleteNo you weren't - that was the argument I was making. I said that he was playing badly, but viewing his career as a whole, that period of poor play looked like an outlier. You were saying it was typical. If I could remember what thread that was in, I'd dig it up.
(As it turns out, I may have been wrong in my contention that he was playing poorly at the time.)
Let go of Motin LT. This reminds me so much of Mikko Luoma it's scary.
ReplyDeleteAlso don't see how Dubnyk's had a great year. He has shown very limited top end stretches. Our future in goal is elsewhere.
The list is impressive (and well done compiling LT), we're set to roll out murderers row out front. If our gm is able to competently add in the other areas, we're looking at a hell of a balanced squad.
Go ahead and dig it up. I said he was mediocre the bulk of last year AND the start of this. I've also consistently said he's a soft player on the boards and in front of the net. All things I've noticed 'watching' the actual games.
ReplyDeleteHere's the thread. Some of your quotes from it:
ReplyDelete"I'm trying to picture what Tom Gilbert playing to his strengths would be? Would that involve him quickly moving the puck out of the zone and never having to deal with a physical presence in front of the net or in the corners? "
"Gilbert is horrible at establishing position and holding that position to impede forwards setting up in the zone. He is useless at clearing the front of the net, particularly when juicy rebounds are waiting to be pounced on. He is largely ineffectual at stopping wingers coming of the wall on the cycle to make passes or drive the net. "
"Gilbert has a LOT of slumps. That's one of the tells that he's not a very good player."
It appears that I was mistaken about my own role in the thread; I must have believed that I had written things that I in fact only thought.
I remember hearing a quote from MacT a few years ago, while they were getting ready for the outdoor classic, and all the OIL legends came, and it made me realize what I view as his problem was as a coach. His quote was something to the effect that: "yeah we had the mess, gretz, coffey, kurri, anderson, etc, but it was the muckers that made our team great" And it dawned on me that that was his problem: who is he kidding, he actually thinks that he had something to with the winning of all those the stanley cups. He was just lucky to be on those teams, and played his role well. There were and are hundreds of MacT's, and few skilled players. I always got the impression MacT resented the skill players, and he coached that way as well: grit and systems over skill.
ReplyDelete@ Kingervision:
ReplyDeleteMacT thought he was responsible for the dynasty just as much if not more than the skill guys.
This is what turned him from a pretty decent third line centre, into an overbearing shop teacher from hell/head coach.
Funny how the great MacT hasn't been able to find a real job since the Oilers. Actually no: it merely proves that he wasn't thought particularly highly by anyone outside the Edmonton snake oil market.
Thanks SS, slightly disturbing to see your obsession with me continues, but it is what it is I guess.
ReplyDeleteEverything I've posted about Tom Gilbert I stand behind. The fact that he's playing better of late doesn't change my opinion of him not does it change my sense that there's a palpable herd mentality in regards to certain players (Gilbert, Horcoff, Khabibulin, etc.).
So sorry if my opinions on Gilbert don't jibe with what the popular kids are saying. What can I say? "I'm a loner, Dottie. A rebel."
Man, I'm tempted to mention Rob Schremp's name in this thread. I wonder if he still has his shinebox?
ReplyDeleteEverything I've posted about Tom Gilbert I stand behind.
ReplyDeleteSo you stand by both the view that you didn't say that Gilbert was a mediocre defenseman, and your earlier statement that Gilbert is not a very good hockey player?
Very good.
It's the janitor claiming to be indispensible to the company.
ReplyDeleteI'm letting my dislike for Mactavish the player to color my thinking. He couldn't pass to the left so the LW withered on the vine, always. He would carry the puck up ice slowly and maybe pass to Bucky who had size, speed and cement from the neck up. Bucky as an Asst Coach, oy.
I see Bucky's contribution "You're my hero, huh Spike"
THIS
ReplyDeleteI was making the argument that Tom Gilbert was playing like a mediocre defenseman at the time, which he was.
AND THIS
I said he was mediocre the bulk of last year AND the start of this.
DOES NOT MEAN THIS
So you stand by both the view that you didn't say that Gilbert was a mediocre defenseman...
I know you're trying desperately hard to paint me as a hypocrite. What I find most amusing about that is this is coming from someone who squats on this board looking to belittle anyone who shares an opinion that doesn't jibe with groupthink. Right or wrong, at least I have some opinions of my own. It's a pretty boring world if everyone thinks like you.
I quite like diversity of opinion, but only when it's defended by something other than proof by assertion.
ReplyDeleteSo far I like Rennie as a coach very much. He's maintaining a team under very difficult conditions. Nurturing all the players, ie not calling individual players out, etc. Each peak and valley is a little higher than the previous one, I could go on.
ReplyDeleteNow the coaching staff - remind me of a horse built by committee that resulted in a camel. Bucky and Smith as technical experts, it is to weep. If Rennie picked them then where are the smarts? Why would he handicap himself this way.
I quite like diversity of opinion
ReplyDeleteSo you say. Your large sample size says otherwise.
So you say. Your large sample size says otherwise.
ReplyDeleteThat's quite an assertion.
Rhetoric without substance. Good one Frasier.
ReplyDeleteHitler.
ReplyDeleteNow, with Godwin satisfied, we can all go home.
All these erudite insults. A little more panache please. Some of those are a little weak.
ReplyDeleteHockey, the great leveler.
Lowetide,
ReplyDeleteI miss Rob Schremp - he was good fodder for discussion and catch phrases that just roll of the tongue.
Robbie, 'git yer shinebox out' was legendary. Rob Schremp hockey is another classic I'll never forget. Oh, something about Belgium cropped up too.
LT
ReplyDeleteI don't know whether your blog is a curse or a blessing. I had shut down hockey for good until this year when I became curious about the kids. And then came across this blog which actually had input. Damn. Now I'm posting on blogs. Hooked again.
Slightly off subject (we've been good today), does anyone think there will come a time when a Hitler sitcom would be allowed?
ReplyDeleteI mean, there's some funny material there. That video making fun of Hitler is an absolute roar.
Thanks LT et Merry X-mas.
ReplyDeleteBtw what'S the big buzz with Finns?
LT:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCn7Xk_6sb8
Have rookies ever scored 10 points in a game before?
ReplyDelete@Hunter: Counting O'Marra, it was actually 11 points. 4-7-11, +11. Impressive.
But not as impressive as this game, in which co-rookies Peter and Anton Stastny scored 8 points. Each!
Dale Hunter was a rookie on that Nordiques squad as well, so add in his one assist and that's 17 points for rookies. I don't know for a fact that's the record, but I'd be more than willing to put even money on it being so, let's put it that way.
Another interesting facet of that game was it was a very rare game featuring three hat tricks by teammates.
Hey, I also noticed that two of the top three have escaped appropriate nicknames. There's Magnum, of course, but what about Eberle and Hall? Eberle's been referred to as, "clutch" but that's not quite a nickname.
ReplyDeleteAny nicknames floating around for Hall and Eberle here that I've missed?
Jay: Canadian Rocket and Phone Booth?
ReplyDeleteI can pick out the posters who hang their old hockey jackets on the chair,(with Coach on the sleeve). Aah the Nordiques - Cloutier and Tardif, the Stastnys. Man, they were pretty to watch.
ReplyDeleteI've always been partial to doink versus dink. Not as demeaning and personal, a little sublety as it were.
ReplyDeleteRacists!
ReplyDeleteYou just hate him because he's Assyrian.
Lee,
ReplyDeleteTry digging up.
WG,
ReplyDeleteHitler doens't count as a race/ist card?
Finns!
Bar Qu,
ReplyDeleteWhat's the appropriate pointless insult for someone who answers a question that was posed to someone else? Whatever it is, that's the insult I should've reserved for SS.
SS & Hitler dominating the thread today?
If only there was a 'final solution' for net trolls.
You just hate him because he's Assyrian.
ReplyDeleteI was so certain that was a line from a movie or something I had to look it up to find out it wasn't.
@Bos8: Hey, I hang my hockey jacket in the closet. Well, some of the time I do.
ReplyDeleteI loved the Nordiques. (Well, except for Dale Hunter and Dan Bouchard I did.) They were my favourite team in the East right up until they moved (south)West.
I was so certain that was a line from a movie or something I had to look it up to find out it wasn't.
ReplyDeleteIt's (paraphrased) from Catch-22, the book. Not sure if it made the movie version.
Lee,
ReplyDeleteblog comment thread poster, aka Bar Qu.
@Bar Qu: That was CoachPB9617 (a.k.a. Derek Zona) who coined the Kingston Cannonball.
ReplyDeleteDavid Staples occasionally tips a cap to the distant past and calls him Cyclone Taylor.
Such a great hockey name. Not only is there a Taylor (Cyclone) and a Hall (Glenn) in the HHoF, but one could argue that his name is embedded directly in the Hall of Fame. :)
Only better hockey name is Allan Stanley, who has two Cups named after him.
Only better hockey name is Allan Stanley, who has two Cups named after him.
ReplyDeleteYeah, but Ernst World has more than a dozen named after him.
Bruce
ReplyDeleteMy all time favorites were Cloutier/Tardif coming up the ice and the Andy/Mess choo choo. When Linseman joined the train my life was complete. Sorry, forgot Coffey skating up ice.
BTW, as an obscure sidenote (my specialty).
ReplyDeleteI propose we refer to all comments from posters who pointlessly harp on personal vendetta topics as
Cato's for this Roman senator's tenacious, repetitive insistence on the destruction of Carthage (Carthago delenda est).
But that might be the esoteric, teacher-on-Christmas-break part of me speaking. Feel free to ignore and move on to more useful conversations about Rob Schremp and MacT. ;)
I mentioned in another thread how crucial it is to keep your narrative straight when "Steve Smith" is in a thread.
ReplyDeleteDidn't that long for more proof.
Bar Qu the Lecter. Nah, that's a little lamby pamby.
ReplyDeleteCyclone Taylor
ReplyDeleteBruce that is a much better name for both historically referential and descriptive purposes.
Seeing as Carthage was the greatest threat to Rome before it was an Empire, I can see him having the hate on. Carthage beat Rome a few times before, but always let them off and settled for their lunch money.
ReplyDeleteWhen Rome finally got the boot on Carthage they we're as easily appeased. The whole razing it to the ground and slaughtering every man, woman, and child, then salting the earth etc. was a bit much, but no one remembers the great Carthaginian Empire.
Bar Qu the Lecter. Nah, that's a little lamby pamby.
ReplyDeleteNot the worst thing I have been called. Not even this week.
;-)
but no one remembers the great Carthaginian Empire.
ReplyDeleteActually no one remembers the Spanish Inquisition.
Unfortunately my students are forced (outside of curriculum expectations and common sense) to hear about the Phoenicians every time I talk about anything in the ancient Mediterranean and often about the Carthaginians by extension.
Ahem It was more the Alps, the elephants the scenic vistas.
ReplyDeleteI think they Oilers have already settled on the superlative Ebs, Hallsy, Mags, and Ohms.
ReplyDeleteI was at least hoping for Ebinator, Hallvestator, Maximus Magnicus, and Omarkraken myself.
Bos8 said...
ReplyDeleteAhem It was more the Alps, the elephants the scenic vistas.
I sometimes wonder if MacT felt like Hannibal, doing everything that could be asked with what he had and watching it all fall apart due to lack of manpower and material; all the while begging Kevin Lowe to send him some support and resources he could work with.
Lowetide: I'd signed out just so I wouldn't be tempted to post, when you went and mentioned one of the main subjects of my current hobby(the Russian Great Patriotic War 1941-45).
ReplyDeleteAs long as the WW2 generation lives, it's not going to happen. Once they pass, Hitler and the nazis generally are going to be getting looked at, analysed, revered for a few things, and made fun of to a degree that's going to alarm a lot of people.
I doubt if there were many Ghengis Khan jokes flying around Budapest in the fourteenth century either.
PS: To all the lawyers and wannabes who post here: Arguing law school style might work in a sterile controlled atmosphere, but online there are no rules.
I sometimes wonder if MacT felt like Hannibal, doing everything that could be asked with what he had and watching it all fall apart due to lack of manpower and material; all the while begging Kevin Lowe to send him some support and resources he could work with.
ReplyDeleteExcellent analogy.
And much more accessible than talking about General Belisarius.
Once upon a time every fall we'd adjourn to the Inn on White and go "What have we got, where can they go and what do we do with them? By Christmas you hope to have a team. The operative word is "Team".
ReplyDeleteYou play the hand you're dealt.
Mac T failed the First Commandment
@ BarQ: Hannibal was a king, he got everything he wanted.
ReplyDeleteMacT playing Helmuth Weidling during the Battle of Berlin to Lowe's Hitler makes more sense.
Weidling/MacT - "The situation is desperate. We need reinforcements immediately".
Hitler/Lowe - "Don't worry! We've got 5 cups!"
Re: MacTavish
ReplyDeleteHe just finished his MBA and has his sights set on managing.
Not to say he wouldn't take the right coaching job, but he won't take the wrong one.
L.T says Lowe is the next GM of the Oilers. I have MacT in a dead heat with Lowe for that job.
MacT got the Oil within a whisker of making the playoffs with almost the same team that finished 30th the next year.
PS: To all the lawyers and wannabes who post here: Arguing law school style might work in a sterile controlled atmosphere, but online there are no rules.
ReplyDeleteIndeed - it's mob rule. Fortunately, the mob around here is pretty sophisticated. Mostly.
Actually no one remembers the Spanish Inquisition.
ReplyDeleteNo one expects one either.
hunter, not to quibble over anything mundane but Hannibal wasn't a king just the aritocratic head of a economic consortium that was responsible to the popular will of the citizens. Hannibal got cut off at the knees when he could've cut Rome off at the head.
ReplyDeleteI have no actual knowledge of your area of historical interest, so I accept your statements as valid.
WG - I would love to see MacT back as GM.
Hunter
ReplyDeleteYou get that in a courtroom the best arguments you can make are based on correct facts. I assume that that approach would be very persuasive here too.
I have no idea why anyone would be down on MacT as a player. He was very good at his job. He would be an ENORMOUS addition to this Oiler team in his prime
As to coaching, he was a very good coach who was perennially given the 15th to 20th best team in the league and told to make the playoffs. With a balanced roster he beat the best teams in the West to get to SCF and was an injury to Roli from winning the Cup
No one expects one either.
ReplyDeleteDamn, I knew I should've checked that first.
Lee,
ReplyDeleteYou are the troll.
Thanks SS, slightly disturbing to see your obsession with me continues, but it is what it is I guess.
Ad Hominem
Everything I've posted about Tom Gilbert I stand behind.
Revisionism
The fact that he's playing better of late doesn't change my opinion of him not does it change my sense that there's a palpable herd mentality in regards to certain players (Gilbert, Horcoff, Khabibulin, etc.).
Red Herring
So sorry if my opinions on Gilbert don't jibe with what the popular kids are saying. What can I say? "I'm a loner, Dottie. A rebel."
Irritating sarcasm and stupid allusion.
Steve Smith: It appears that I was mistaken about my own role in the thread; I must have believed that I had written things that I in fact only thought.
ReplyDeleteWG: I mentioned in another thread how crucial it is to keep your narrative straight when "Steve Smith" is in a thread.
Sometimes the threads write themselves.
please don't drink or toke and drive.
ReplyDeleteShoot. I read this on my Iphone while driving home from the bar with a drink and a joint in one hand and the Iphone in another. I think I drove with my knees or my mouth.
:)
Kris: Abide.
ReplyDeleteBelisarius on a hockey blog. Next it'll be Theodora. Then the French Law Code. And a full circle to the Law Students who never participated in the Debating Society.
ReplyDeleteGood Grief.
There I was reading a hockey blog and a Belisarius popped up. Go figure.
SS, how many times have we told you? We're not fooled when you post as Kris. lol
ReplyDeleteTroll is too strong. I don't mean to sound like a jerk. But you could admit you at least strongly implied something that turns out to be false about Gilbert. And you could apologize and say, "Let's let bygones be bygones" with Steve Smith, who is pretty well respected for being even handed and fair minded over a long period of posting here.
ReplyDeleteWG - I would love to see MacT back as GM.
ReplyDeleteUpgrade on what we have now.
Close relationship with Katz. I'd wouldn't discount it.
But you could admit you at least strongly implied something that turns out to be false about Gilbert.
ReplyDeleteI love the fact that on a site that extolls the virtues of large sample sizes, Tom Gilbert's recent improved play over 10 scant games or so is demonstrable proof that any assertion he is a mediocre player (whether right or wrong) is now most definitively characterized as false. Goalposts consider thyself moved.
As far as SS being fair or even handed, I'll believe it when I see that courtesy extended in my direction. You know me, I'm the ultimate 'saw him good' guy (or at least you think you know me enough to stereotype me in that fashion). Unfortunately I've yet to see SS good on many occasions.
Alright, since we seem to be on peace talks now, I'll re-engage: Lee what, do you think I owe you an apology for?
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteI love the fact that on a site that extolls the virtues of large sample sizes, Tom Gilbert's recent improved play over 10 scant games or so is demonstrable proof that any assertion he is a mediocre player (whether right or wrong) is now most definitively characterized as false. Goalposts consider thyself moved.
The point is that his recent play is much more in line with the large sample size, whereas his poor play is at the low end of his curve.
Goalposts weren't moved, you were looking at the wrong end of the field.
Shouldn't we wait for Jimmy Carter?
ReplyDelete... or Judge Judy?
ReplyDeleteRe: Gilbert and sample size: he had 50+ mediocre games last year till Whitney showed up
ReplyDeleteI refuse to go to Dayton; that's my line in the sand.
ReplyDeleteCome on Lebron. Or was it come on Eileen? Damn.
ReplyDeleteSo long as Lowe/MacT hang around Edmonton, they're automatic faves to GM the team, despite every reason to ritually strangle them together at centre ice to kick off the new season?
ReplyDeleteLowe - decent small market GM. Appalling spend to the cap GM.
MacT - Mister full of excuses, no matter what the occasion. Did everything except develop players or win anything, ever.
No doubt with "Bucky" as head coach, right?
*gets on knees and prays Katz doesn't take any notice of this blog*
ReplyDeleteWhen Rome finally got the boot on Carthage they we're as easily appeased. The whole razing it to the ground and slaughtering every man, woman, and child, then salting the earth etc. was a bit much, but no one remembers the great Carthaginian Empire.
There was a great series on The History Channel called "Engineering an Empire" hosted by Peter Weller.
They looked at various empires through the ages and how great engineering projects helped them attain/maintain "Empire Status"
The episode on Carthage and its massive man-made port was excellent.
I recommend the whole series.
*gets on knees and prays Katz doesn't take any notice of this blog*
ReplyDeleteHunter,
Its MacT's relationship with Katz that makes him a favorite.
Lowe and MacTavish were a main reason that Katz bought the Oilers. They've been friends for 25 years.
hunter1909 said...
ReplyDelete@ BarQ: Hannibal was a king, he got everything he wanted.
Bar Qu has it spot on Hunter. Hannibal wasn't a monarch. In his great push against Rome he was little more than a general, and the folks back home wouldn't send him the reinforcements he desperately needed to finish off Rome.
Hannibal had Rome at it's knee equivalents too, and just ran out of manpower, while the Romans on home territory just has to wait him out. Once the tables were turned, you can be damn sure the Romans put the boot to Carthage, they didn't just defeat them, they wiped them off the face of the earth.
WG, I'll be sure to look that up, thanks for the tip.
ReplyDeleteCarthage's port must have been something to behold, a naval power to dominate all others. In the end it was the land war they lost.
WG that sounds like a series to check out, though it might be better if it were a book.
ReplyDeleteBos8, anytime there is an appropriate way to reference him, Belisarius is an excellent historical figure to bring up. Seriously one of the best generals of history, both from a strategic viewpoint and from a dedication to his people's viewpoint. Kinda like Rommel but with greater moral character.
uni - Rome without Carthage was an empire without purpose, and imo was on a long road to decline after its wholly unnecessary actions to destroy it.
Man, am I ever enjoying this history blog ;-)
Re: Gilbert and sample size: he had 50+ mediocre games last year till Whitney showed up
ReplyDeleteWhich 50?
For all Oiler D who played at least 40 games he was: (5v5)
Corsi
1st in Relative Corsi
1st in Relative Corsi QC
3rd in Relative Corsi QT
Scoring
1st in Points per 60
2nd in +/- per 60
1st in Scoring QC
4th in Scoring QT
Must have been a helluva 30 games to make up all that ground to lead in so many categories for the whole year.
Just checked, most(if not all)of the Engineering an Empire episodes are on youtube.
ReplyDeleteHere is part one of Carthage
Gilbert doesn't hit anyone=Gilbert is a bad hockey player.
ReplyDeleteDon't mess up Cato's meme with stats.
How can you lose with Elephants on your side? Age of Empires is a lie.
ReplyDeleteAnyways. So how did we drift to Carthage exactly?
Unreal. Thanks LT.
ReplyDeleteFPV
ReplyDeleteNobody expects the Carthaginian Empire.
PS: To all the lawyers and wannabes who post here: Arguing law school style might work in a sterile controlled atmosphere, but online there are no rules.
ReplyDeleteThere you go. I think Hunter has now officially clinched the award for showing the least amount of insight on any Blogger board.
Woodguy
ReplyDeleteThis is why stats get a bad name.
Gilbert had a mediocre year until the last 20 games when offensively he was ON FIRE! It also coincided with a whole lot of meaningless games. I really do not care what his:
Corsi
1st in Relative Corsi
1st in Relative Corsi QC
3rd in Relative Corsi QT
Scoring
1st in Points per 60
2nd in +/- per 60
1st in Scoring QC
4th in Scoring QT
Was.
Largely because that was the WORST performance by the Oilers in my memory. And I went to WHA games. So if your point is that he had a good year compared to a number of his teammates, big deal. That is an indictment of his team mates not an affirmation of his first 50 games.
Bar Qu
ReplyDeleteCarthage and Africa were all about the wheat that fed the Roman Empire. Olives and Frascati don't go far as nourishment.
As to Belisarius I was just messin with you. As in Belisarius, Justinian, Theodora, Legal Code, Napoleonic code so I could bring it back to the lawyerly snarking.
But it's Pitlick that intrigues me, what will the New Year bring in his development. Maybe the natives can scope him at the Oil King games as to passing ability and so on.
Bar Qu
ReplyDeleteArgument is not that Gilbert is a bad hockey player. He is the 2nd best D man on our team. That is both a good thing and a bad thing. We have a better team because he is here. It is a bad thing because if he is our 2nd best D man, we are not going deep in the playoffs
My comment was that he did not have a very good start to last year
He does not hit anyone but nor does Nik Lidstrom and I will concede that has not been a major impedement to Lidstrom's career.
WoodGuy, found the entire series on a torrent and started the download.
ReplyDeleteFPB, you mean this isn't a Phoenician history blog, and this post wasn't about the top ten city states during the Punic Wars?
I just started posting stuff to distract from the inflammatory remarks started by some, but alas, history did not bore them into submission.
Uni: Dude, That Era was like the best.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to bore the shit out of people, talk about the:
INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION!
More boring than that you die.
Oh and did anyone notice that, because of the malnutrition, the giant epic fights they picture is actually just giant braws of dwarfs?
ReplyDeleteFPV - the very fabric of your life (including the computer you are using right now) is a direct result of the industrial revolution. If it is boring history you are not being taught the right way.
ReplyDeleteRead "Uncle Tungsten" to get a sense of the possibilities being dreamt of in the age of the greatest technological leap forward in history. Granted it is mainly about chemistry, but it is short and an easy read.
In my experience, and speaking as a bit of a history buff (Albertan and Canadian political history, primarily, so I'll stay out of this Carthaginian nonsense) most history is not taught the right way. You sound like you're an exception, though, Bar Qu.
ReplyDeleteBar Qu: Never said it wasn't important.
ReplyDeleteI just said that people tend to teach it in the lamest way possible. And it isn't that exciting either on it's own.
Seriously i've never seen anything else about the Napoleonic Wars exept the fact that the blocus made Canada a big wood productor.
Woo hoo. (Outside of personal lectures of course)
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe Industrial Revolution is riveting stuff, very good reading.
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry you have drones teaching it to you FPB. It's criminal the way some passionless teachers out there kill learning for young people.
Also my spelling and Grammar are atrocious, somewhere my college writing instructor is shedding a tear, the only thing I remember from his class is the word tintinnabulation.
Uni: Well at College it gets way better. Outside of French where the teaching corpse is made up of 50% pissed off guys/gals who couldn't make it as a writer it's pretty good. For the first time I loved every single one of my classes.
ReplyDeleteHigh School teachers just :
A: Aren't that good at theyr actual subject.
B: Are totally bored/Douches.
C: Are affected by a class mainly composed of morons.
(Just to point out I listed the 3 major problems with HS teachers, not that they are ALL like that)
ReplyDeleteGood translated Swedish article on Lander, courtesy of dohfOs
ReplyDeleteThe Oiler scout says he's ready to step into the NHL.
TOJ,
ReplyDeleteI understand you apprehension as he may have just been the best of a bad lot, but I disagree.
I saw WHA games too, but I was only 7. :)
For sure Tom Gilbert is better than Kerry Ketter.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteFor once I gotta stick on Hunter's side. He didn't say anything so out of the blue.
ReplyDeleteIt's true. On the internet, there is no rules.
The rules are that it's LT's site and he reserves the right to remove your post if he so chooses. That essentially determines the boundaries. Given this site is his little corner of the net, those seem like pretty cool and fair rules to me.
ReplyDeleteI seriously doubt that Katz bought the Oilers just because he's friends with a couple of ex-players. Bigshots simply don't think like that. Plenty of them in both my family and business circle, and they just don't think like that. Ever.
ReplyDeleteHe wanted to "rescue" the franchise from the EIG so the Lowe and MacT could restore the franchise to a winner unfettered by budget constraints.
I have that from someone who had the conversation with Katz.
Take it for what's its worth. You don't know me from Adam, and I'm not trying to convince you, just stating why I believe what I believe.
He paid 200MM for a franchise generously valued at 150MM. That's not the act of a shrewd business man, that's the act of a very wealthy fan.
Not saying Katz isn't a shrewd business man, just that the main motivator for the Oiler purchase wasn't to make money.
ReplyDeletemost history is not taught the right way
ReplyDeleteTruer words have never been spoken. I try my best to make stuff interesting, but I am given too much social science dreck to spend enough time on the stuff that is really good.
The Oiler scout says he's ready to step into the NHL.
ReplyDeleteThat could be some of the best news we hear this season. Do you think he might come over when the season there is done?
For once I gotta stick on Hunter's side. He didn't say anything so out of the blue.
ReplyDeleteIt's true. On the internet, there is no rules.
The problem with his statement is that he presumes to know what lawyers and "wannabe" lawyers are all about. He assumes that they just learn about arguing in a "sterile environment" or that they don't have any life experience. He thinks people come here for an argument, when some of us just come to talk Oilers with some reasonably intelligent people.
Then he comes back with:@ Ducey: I don't know or care to know you from Adam, but it's pretty clear you don't know anything much, other than being able to hide in a group and hope no one ever singles you out for any reason whatsoever. Good luck in the upcoming world depression. You're really going to need more than the rest of us.
Says all you need to know about the guy.
The Oiler scout says he's ready to step into the NHL.
ReplyDeleteHopefully its not the same scout that convinced them to take Cam Abney in the third round :-)
WG
ReplyDeleteWe simply agree to disagree. If Gilbert is not contributing offensively, he is not an above average defenseman. I love Jason Smith's game to death but if he is hitting no one, we have Scott Ferguson and as much as Mrs Ferguson liked Scott, Oiler fans were not quite so enamored with him.
Now as to your statement that Katz did not buy the Oilers to make money: Not surprisingly , we agree to disagree. If you can get someone to give you an asset for 20 or 25 cents on the dollar and you can generate an extra 15 to 20 million in revenue from that asset, how in the world can you not make money from that mostly free asset? This whole deal was always about a Rexall controlled arena
Put another way, Katz will be delighted to make 8 % on his $180 million dollar investment. With the new arena he can make $25 to 30 million a year on his $180 million dollar
investment which is closer to 15% on his investment. Now you are going to say.......wait he is committed to another $100 million to the new arena and that brings his investment to $280 million and 25 to 30 million profit is still only 8 to 10 %. I agree with you completely except Katz's $100 million towards the arena is coming from his luxury suite and season ticket holders. So for his $180 million dollar investment .............He will make 15% forever, no matter how badly K Lowe runs this team
Actually I could be more convinced on the Tom Gilbert argument because the make $$$$/arena argument is a lead pipe cinch.
LT, you simply rule the universe.
ReplyDeleteFabulous, fabulous stuff.
hunter1909 said...
ReplyDelete@ Kingervision:
MacT thought he was responsible for the dynasty just as much if not more than the skill guys.
This is what turned him from a pretty decent third line centre, into an overbearing shop teacher from hell/head coach.
Yes Hunter: We are totally on the same page. MacT wanted to coach a team of 3rd line grinders: that doesn't win anything. His belief of what wins was based on his medicore skill, forgetting that he won those cups because of the skill. Pronger didn't listen to MacT, he was the only one who had the ability to come in and say: "MacT, shut up listen and learn, while I put this team on my back". By the way, the Carthaginiens, the ancestors of the modern lebanese, are an amazing people.
Don't know how ancient history and Oilers hockey managed to combine so effectively on this blog, but this thread has been entertaining, nonetheless.
ReplyDeleteConnections is a good show for those who want to see history taught differently.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteConnections is a good show for those who want to see history taught differently.
ReplyDeleteI have been looking for that show for quite a while (looking in the sense that I remember it occasionally and strongly desire to find it then). Where can I find it in a cheap/free form?
I loved the overarching view that they took of history and the interrelationships that exist between disparate events.
No idea on quality, but if you use torrents Bar Qu here's a link to a torrent
ReplyDeleteToj,
ReplyDeleteThere are a lot of assumptions in what you say and I'm not going to get in a pissing match with you over the Rexall Sports business plan and model, but I do have on question.
You said this:
Put another way, Katz will be delighted to make 8 % on his $180 million dollar investment.
What's his cost of capital?
Good day,
ReplyDeleteMy psychic daughter told me to pick up extra tinfoil because Lain was going to attract some more mind readers this season. She`s so freaking smug when she`s right.
;-D
Merry Christmas, one and all.
Louise
Merry Christmas to you, Louise.
ReplyDeleteThere are not a lot of assumptions in what I said. At this point most of the assumptions have crystallized.
ReplyDeleteWhen the purchase was made I said that it was a real estate deal and the "plum" was the revenue stream from a new arena. There were people on the net denigrating the suggestion that the Rexall group wanted any public money for a new arena. We now know that Rexall wants Northlands out of any competing business with a new arena (concerts, etc) and wants 78% of the cost of the arena paid for by the City.
If your suggestion as to assumptions refers to my comments about season ticket holders and luxury box holders, just wait. Be disappointed, just do not be surprised.
I have not addressed your question as to Rexall's cost of money because the Oilers are currently making money. Just not a lot of money. The whole idea of the salary cap was to guarantee teams 43% for their own operations. The Oilers are a "have" team in the NHL and that is why, in part, the Oilers notwithstanding asking for a public subsidy of $350 million dollars refuse to share their books.
Put simply, their current operations cover their cost of capital with a little profit left over.
That leaves aside any overpyment by Katz for an asset worth $165 to 170 million dollars
WG
ReplyDeleteCost of capital: if it is his money, ie it is cash to be invested to make a return--- he has no cost of capital. That is, whatever he makes on the $180 million dollar investment is profit.
If he has borrowed some, much or ,gasp, all of his purchase price that cost of borrowing would be added to cost before determining his return. What you are really asking is if it is all borrowed money at 6% he has incurred a variable cost on that $180 million dollars of $10.8 million. That $10,8 has to be paid back before we get to Rexall profit.
But to make that assumption, you have to assume it is the City of Edmonton's job to guarantee a return on his investment. Not even Rexall will stand up and make THAT argument
So was the Oiler purchase a benevolent public gesture? I will believe that when the "ask" for public money gets reversed: ie we contribute $100 million and Rexall contributes $350 million. Did you want to wager on that probability?
On MacT as a future GM: I fail to understand why teams feel the need to put ex-players or hockey men in general in the GM position. There are plenty of scouts in the organization to tell the GM what they need and who to target - the GM's key job is to negotiate with other GMs and agents to get the best deals possible for the team on trades and contracts. I'd love to see the Oil go outside the box someday to hire a killer negotiator as GM who could leave the hockey calls to his hockey people and just concentrate on being the smartest guy in the room.
ReplyDeleteOn MacT as a player: Always liked him, but I was too young when he was in his prime to have a very sophisticated opinion. Seems like a guy who was tabbed to take the biggest face-off in NHL history (in the Rangers' end, seconds left to go in Game 7 against the Canucks in '94, Van one goal down with extra attacker on, 50+ year losing steak for the Rangers in the balance) and won it couldn't have been too bad.
On the Golf Channel: Point Break. That's just odd.
Bar Qu: The series was released on DVD. You can get them at places like Amazon, but there may be a local retailer who carries (or can order it).
ReplyDeleteRobert Wuhl did "Assume the Position" for HBO, which covered American history as a product of pop culture. Funny stuff, but very, very well done.
ReplyDeleteThis is the YouTube link.
Poor Lee pulled a mini-shanetrain.
ReplyDeleteWow, I am sorry I missed all of this yesterday.
ReplyDeleteI personally much prefer MacT and Shremp over Hitler.
I personally much prefer MacT and Shremp over Hitler.
ReplyDeleteBut what's your position on Assyrians?
Toj,
ReplyDeleteI never said the Oilers were a benevolent public gesture.
I said the purchase was by a fan who's major motivation was not the profit motive.
You set up new and exciting straw men in every post so I'm done discussing this with you.
Commonfan13,
I fail to understand why teams feel the need to put ex-players or hockey men in general in the GM position. There are plenty of scouts in the organization to tell the GM what they need and who to target - the GM's key job is to negotiate with other GMs and agents to get the best deals possible for the team on trades and contracts.
I would argue that a GM's job is to have a vision for exactly what type of team he wants, and specifically what type of player he wants at the 23 roster spots in the NHL and the AHL.
Vision, goals and leadership need to come from the GM chair, not just good negotiating skills.
That's why smart ex-players can be good GMs, if the understand what it takes to make a good hockey team. (i.e. Ken Holland, David Poile to some extent)
By no means is every ex-player is capable of the job.
MacT seems fairly smart and I've always agreed with his philosophy on building a team. Finishing an MBA helps a bit.
Bar Qu said...
ReplyDeleteBut what's your position on Assyrians?
If you're talking 20th century, then you might have that backwards; more like what's your opinion of the Ottoman Empire vis a vis Assyrians.
The other John said;
ReplyDelete"Cost of capital: if it is his money, ie it is cash to be invested to make a return--- he has no cost of capital. That is, whatever he makes on the $180 million dollar investment is profit."
OK, this is where an investment guy needs to step in. The fact that it's his own money does not make the cost of capital free. (This concept is one of my pet peeves.)
Katz's cost of capital on his own money is his opportunity cost, or, what could he earn on that money investing somewhere else.
The consensus rate to use in this case is typically a long term Government bond. The 10 yr yeilds 3.26% and the long bond is more like 3.68% so lets call Katz's cost of capital if he uses his own money 3.5%
If he borrows funs then his cost of capital is whatever the lendor charges him, which I'm sure is more than 3.5%
Regardless of whether he's using his owm money or borrowed funds, he's earning no where near 8.0%
Okay, let's play manager. You do a review of the team.
ReplyDeleteAssets 5 top end wingers (including Omark)
1 2/3 line center (Horcoff)
2 top end D (Whitney,Gilbert)
All else needs to be reviewed - upgraded, replaced.
Near term assets
Petry
Plante
Lander
Hamilton
Pitlick
Question - Is Gagner now or at any time in the near future a first line center?
Question - Could Eberle play center with Hall, Paajarvi? If need be the two wingers taking faceoffs.
All this is a short term project as age, free agency and salary constraints will impede team development.
Bos8
ReplyDeleteGagner is also a 2 line centre. With Horcoff you have 2 very good centres for your two top lines. The top lines, imo are not the problem for this team.
With the prospects and tweeners in the system, it would not be difficult for an astute GM to pry a couple of top 4 D and some serviceable 3rd liners from another team, especially if they are in cap trouble.
Who's out there to pry away? I have no idea. I'm still stuck on Assyrians (uni, I was referencing one of "Steve Smith"s comments from yesterday. Properly, wouldn't modern Assyrians be Iranians? A people btw, that I have all kinds of time for, even if their leadership is crap).
You need to ponder on Ozymandias as to the Assyrians.
ReplyDeleteOr how to bring the Moslems into the 21 century. How did a culture that was a leader (architecture and mathematics)turn into 200 years behind technologically.
Classifying Gagner, Horcoff as top centers, I give you Crosby, Malkin and Staal. That to me are top end centers.
ReplyDeleteWell, those guys ain't nothing next to Gretzky.
ReplyDeleteBut since the whole league can't have Crosby, Malkin or Staal, I submit that that centres the Oilers have now (or in the pipe) might be the mid-term solution until a pair of generational talents appears.
Yeah, the debate over Gagner in the journal today by Dan Barnes.
ReplyDeleteTo me, there's no question that Gagner's ceiling is as an adequate 2nd line center.
Gagner's still young, but his potential is limited by his natural assets. He's not going to get taller, probably not much stronger on the puck, winning faceoffs, or puck battles, and footspeed doesn't increase with age either.
His defense will hopefully improve with experience. So far his offense is okay (not great) for a 2nd line center, but he never looks to be particularly driving the bus.
I like Gagner, there's obviously plenty of 2nd line centers that are much stronger than Gagner's ceiling.
@Bos8, obviously there isn't a team in the league that has top 3 centers that can compare to the Pens.
Colorado's also very strong down the middle with Stastny, Duchene, O'Reily.
The caps get by with Fleishman who isn't an offensive juggernaut nor strong on faceoffs.
Bar Qu: You talking about the Fleischmann the Caps traded to Colorado for Hannan a couple weeks ago?
ReplyDeleteInteresting that the Caps haven't won a game pretty much since Flash left. Not that there's any causation, mind, just interesting.
Bruce, I have to give credit to Jay for that one. It is amazing though how having competent players at all positions contributes to the overall effectiveness of a hockey team.
ReplyDeleteThis is where I am with the Oilers. If they could fill the bottom 6 (even 4 of those positions) and add a couple of quality D, then this would be a team contending for a playoff position next year and a contender for the overall title in 2-3 years.
But Toonces will not add or prune in an effective manner, which is the start and stop of this team. And for those hating on MacT, he could hardly do a worse job than the current management and I suspect he would do a far better one.
Jay: Well Fleishmann is pretty good. Albeit he's no superman, the play won't die on his stick too often.
ReplyDeleteOn the Assyrians: Off with your head, an eye for an eye, said Gretzky, as he chopped off Hrudey's head. I will now wear it as a necklace.
Hiller
ReplyDeleteYou are suggesting that Katz could buy bonds with little risk and make 3.5 %. His cost of capital is the difference between a safe investment and whatever the risk associated with owning the Oilers.
There are going to be a whole lot of people who are going to learn over the next year or two that owning government bonds---at least European and US government bonds is not as safe as one thinks.
I would suggest to you that owning the Oilers in a salary cap world is a very very safe investment.
To suggest he is not making 8% presupposes you must have seen Rexall's books both on the revenue and expense side. I have not but estimate team revenue at between 85-90 million dollars. With a NHL payroll of $50 million the Oil are making a little bit of money
Oops, yeah that was me. I forgot about the Fleischmann trade and managed to spell his name wrong to boot.
ReplyDeleteI haven't thought much about the whole Mact discussion, but you'd have to imagine that MacT learned a lesson or two about the need to address and fill roster holes from his personal experiences here.
If the Oilers can just get another pivot who can win a draw within the scope of my lifetime, now that would be something. :p
Bar Qu, the Ottoman Empire/Turks tried to wipe out the Assyrians around 1920 or so. Something that brought out the "G" word. That's how most of them ended up in Iran and Iraq. Apparently a lot of them had converted to Christianity as well, leading to a lot of them getting killed in Iraq today.
ReplyDeleteI do find the whole Babylon thing fascinating though, in fact I find anything to do with the Mesopotamian fascinating.
Bos8, that's easy, the Mongols. The Mongols had the largest impact on the Western rise to prominence in technology. Back in the day the Arab and Asian worlds were the centers of technology and advancement. In fact Arabic was known as the language of learning as they translated texts from around the world.
Then the Mongols came like a wind of death and smashed into the Arabic world, destroying their vast aqueduct system and setting their civilization back up to 800 years by some estimates, certainly a few centuries. Not to mention the millions that died from the resulting lack of water.
After that they swept to Hungary, and decisively crushed 2 European armies, leaving all of Europe undefended and ripe for devastation. Then luck, Uzbeky, their leader, died of the drink. By Mongol tradition they all had to return home to install the new Khan, so on the eve of Europe's subjugation they got a reprieve. The new Khan was obsessed with China and Chinese culture and turned his forces to conquering China, leaving Europe untouched, which took quite some time but he eventually did.
So, with the Arabs and Asians devastated by the Mongols, European powers were free to go ahead and close that technology gap, and fill the void unmolested.
Huh. I was wondering where all of my peyote disappeared to.
ReplyDeleteNow I know.
@Bar Qu: Sorry. "Page up" fail.
ReplyDelete