For a team badly in need of some swagger, Taylor Hall has it in spades. Outstanding talent, plays on winning teams pretty much all the time, interviews well; on top of all that, he passes on the World Junior camp because he wants to be ready for Oilers training camp. He's a little arrogant, and that's alright with me.
I wonder if the Oilers are going to give Hall the 'Punch Imlach to Gilbert Perreault' speech. From the book Heaven and Hell in the NHL:
- Imlach: With Perreault I just told him, "Look kid, take the puck and go with it. I mean, you're going to make all kinds of mistakes but eventually, if you're smart enough you're not going to make them again. You're going to develop, and build your game up."
I mention this because Perreault was a first overall pick and results were needed from the young center. The Sabres were an expansion team trying to create excitement in a new city, and Perreault was the centerpiece. Hall's situation is different in many ways (not the least of which is that Hall is 18 and Gil Perreault was 20 as a rookie) but Taylor Hall's game performances are going to be dissected shift-by-shift, minute-by minute. Early success is going to be an important item.
•Boxcars: 57gp, 40-66-106 (1.86) (all numbers OHL)•Shots: NA
•Plus Minus: +46
•Cap Hit: $3,750,000 if he hits everything (900k base)
CAREER HONORS & AWARDS
Canadian Major Junior - Rookie of the Year 2007-08
Memorial Cup - Ed Chynoweth Award (Leading Scorer) 2009-10
Memorial Cup - Stafford Memorial Trophy (MVP) 2009-10, 2008-09
Memorial Cup - All-Star Team 2009-10 (Forward), 2008-09 (Forward)
Canadian Major Junior - All-Rookie Team 2007-08 (Forward)
OHL - Eddie Powers Memorial Trophy (Leading Scorer) 2009-10
OHL - Emms Family Award (Rookie of the Year) 2007-08
OHL - Plus/Minus Award 2007-08
OHL - Wayne Gretzky Trophy (Playoff MVP) 2008-09
OHL - First All-Star Team 2009-10 (Left wing), 2008-09 (Left wing)
OHL - All-Rookie Team 2007-08 (Left wing)
Crazy.
- What do these numbers tell us? Taylor Hall was the best available amateur and the Oilers plucked him first overall. Consider it payment for wandering in the desert all those years.
- How could they be better? You got me, I don't know. Maybe if he'd missed the World Juniors? Hell, they're wonderful numbers.
- And yet Sam Gagner had better numbers. Yes, and Gagner had Pat Kane and a lot of icetime. Taylor Hall scored 14-32-46 on the PP and 4-1-5 shorthanded. Doing simple math, that makes his EV number last season 57gp, 22-33-55. Gagner's draft year numbers were as follows: 20-50-70 on the PP, 1-0-1 shorthanded and that made his EV number 53gp, 14-33-47. We don't have the time on ice, but I think we can safely say the gap offensively isn't as it appears just looking at the boxcars.
- No matter. Hall is a more dynamic player anyway. Yes, but lets not discount Gagner. He was a lottery pick too, and in fact might be a nice chem match for Hall as things roll along.
- Do you have his shot totals? Only for the World Juniors, he shot the puck 21 times in 6 games, which would work out to about 290 shots in 82 games.
- Your offensive projections (below) are pretty low. Are you going to tell us we've drafted 'Schremp with a motor' #1 overall and Hall will be less than hoped? No, there's no real way to know if Hall will have an impact career or just an average or poor one. We know he isn't Crosby and we know he isn't Gretzky; but he might be Stamkos or Simon Gagne. We know the resume looks very good currently.
- What are his Desjardins NHLE's? This past season, Gabriel's magic wand suggested the OHL totals would translate to 82gp, 17-29-46.
- Your projections for him are lower. It's irritating. Why are your projections lower? Is it because you're a dink? No, that's not it. My reasonable expectations series is designed to give a line in the sand that looks fine against said player's previous seasons. If my RE number is lined up against Mr. Desjardins number for last season, these are two seasons that look like they could have come from the same player.
- So you don't really think he'll match that number. Yes, that's exactly what I think. That's the number I believe he'll end up with as a rookie. If Taylor Hall scores more than my projection, then I'm going to believe he exceeded expectations. This is an addled club he's joining, plus powerplay time isn't promised to him and there are other talented rookies (older, with more experience) knocking on the door. Also, Regehr hasn't hit him yet. We don't know if he'll respond like Hemsky or a lesser man. We don't know these things yet, we can bet on the kid (that hit in the Memorial Cup was stunning) having the big nuts but we won't know until Calgary ugly does his thing.
- But you said he was important. What about the Perreault thing? I think the Oilers will give him a push, but if he's 'scoring like Thornton' as a rookie Tom Renney will have no choice but to sit him for awhile and then start the process again.
- You're wrong. Hope so. And if he gets lots of PP time with Hemsky, Taylor Hall could go supernova. It is however not reasonable to expect it.
Prediction for 2010-11: 74gp, 20-20-40 (.541)
Strong Calder Candidate
Just reviewing the interview and it looks like the ventriloquists dummy was pretty pissed off at you LT
ReplyDeleteHas he seen the shavings on your pant cuffs and heard voices coming from the basement?
"Is it because you're a dink?"
ReplyDelete"Calgary Ugly"
Too funny. Good Read.
dink is an under-used and excellent/inspirational insult.
ReplyDeleteDink.
Tay may be all these things, but I fear for his safety. SMac will not prevent heads into the corner hits and all that crap he seems bent on putting himself through.
Top picks jumping straight to the NHL since the lockout:
ReplyDeleteCrosby 39-63-102 (05/06)
Kane 21-51-72 (07/08)
Duchene 24-31-55 (09/10)
Tavares 24-30-54 (09/10)
Gagner 13-36-49 (07/08)
Stamkos 23-23-46 (08/09)
Staal 29-13-42 (06/07)
Kessel 11-18-29 (06/07)
E. Kane 14-12-26 (09/10)
I think it's pretty safe to say Hall will get a good push when it comes to ice time/PP time.
Although we know he plays with reckless abandon, I don't believe Hall missed a single game due to injury in his entire OHL career.
Looking at the above, I'd slot him above Staal/Kessel/E. Kane and in line with Stamkos/Gagner.
His junior #'s are almost identical to Stamkos, who played about 15 min/game his rookie year (and I remember Melrose played him pretty sparingly the 15 or so games he coached).
My reasonable expectations for 2010:
78 GP, 22-25-47
"SMac will not prevent heads into the corner hits and all that crap he seems bent on putting himself through."
ReplyDeleteIm hoping that SMac is given the green light to go get suspended if Regher does anything out of line.. no joke!.. Sic'm boy..
I like your reasonable expectations for players because they're.. gasp.. REASONABLE expectations - attainable numbers. Basically the way I look at it... if the player reaches them, I will be content. If they go above them, I'll be pretty damn happy. If they go below them.. well, I might be a bit disappointed (although I tend to give the younger players a lot of rope, so I'd likely just hope for a better follow up year).
ReplyDeleteYour projections for him are lower. It's irritating. Why are your projections lower? Is it because you're a dink?
ReplyDeleteI love how your questions and answers analysis.
And LOL @ dink.
Keep it up, young man.
Although we know he plays with reckless abandon, I don't believe Hall missed a single game due to injury in his entire OHL career.
ReplyDeleteTo be perfectly honest, I am not concerned about him missing time this year or even next. Where I worry is when he hits the 22-25 range. Is he going to have smartened up enough to play wily or mean? Or will he continue doing what he does 'because it works, coach!'?
I'd hate to have Brett Lindros when all the other good prospects are hitting their strides.
LT, I think that's the same Punch Imlach quote you used in your Gagner-is-as-good-as-Hemsky-&-Kane post a couple of years back. Hmmm...
ReplyDeleteHave we established a comp yet for Hall? Or do we want to see him play a bit on NHL ice first?
I thought Gagner was "Schremp with a Motor"? Considering the portion of his Jr. scoring that came from the PP and his shootout prowess.
I think your RE for Hall is in the ballpark. Although maybe tending toward the dugout. Why are you weighting his goals heavier (or his assists less) than his ratio last season?
Oh and finally, does he get to wear #4?
Bar Qu...
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping they have Hall moved to centre by that age and this spending less time along the walls and in the corners.
Yeah, and I'm hoping he is smart enough (hockey-wise) to be able to handle that sort of change.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure I will get over this choosing him thing once I see him play in pre-season, but sometimes it is hard to let go of presuppositions.
@BarQu:
ReplyDeleteAhhh... you wanted Seguin, gotcha. I think LT is right at the beginning of his post. One of the things this team needed was a little swagger and Hall has it in spades.
Jays...
Arencibia creamed and then triple-dunked after his MLB debut. 4 for 5 and two HRs including one off his very first major league pitch.
He seem to tire or something later in the game though as his throws back to the mound from the squat were coming up short.
Hopefully Hall played with reckless abandon in Junior only because he could shrug off most attempts to decapitate him, and is smart enough to realize that he will have to take note of when the NHL gronks are on the ice. I would think that that is one area where Coach Buchberger will be of value. He would know from experience. If this kid turns out to be in the range of Tavares/Stamkos I will be thrilled.
ReplyDeleteIt probably won't hurt to have him and his expectations of winning ways to be around either (come to think of it, there are a few newbies that might bring that attitude with them).
ReplyDeleteSpoiler: That's defintly something special. It's like if you made a coast to coast goal on your first NHL game.
ReplyDeleteLt: You keep referring to Regher as a possible danger to Hall and he is. But it's also worth mentioning that Keith Ballard, one of the best open ice hitters in the league and Dan Hamhuis, he of the crushing hip check, have also come to play in the NW.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteYour projections for reasonable expectation isnt really that much lower.
ReplyDeleteWhat you have reduced is his GP. his ppg of .541 translates to 44-45 points in a 82 game season. Desjardin says 46 points. So u are almost there. Actually you think he will score more goals than what Desjardin predicts. If he is not injured, I doubt he gets benched for more than 2-3 games.
A .541 ppg is not as low as you have yourself convinced!
Also LT, if he posts about 40 points this season, I doubt he will be a 'strong' calder candidate. I am sure there are others such as Couture, Subban and Ennis who will be given loads of opportunities to excel. Also the presence of other promising rookies such as MPS and Eberle will cut into the ice-time of Hall when he struggles.
ReplyDeleteTo be in the strong candidate category, he will have to score more than 50 points!
SumOil: Well each season brings its own unique qualities. Hall's 40 points aren't way fewer than Tavares on the Island and I think he was a strong Calder candidate this past season.
ReplyDeleteAs to your other points, I would have estimated a much higher point total if not for three things:
1. all of the other kids. Eberle, MPS, Omark, these players are going to cut into his time (and PP time).
2. He's not coming to a well established team with well defined roles. If this was a matter of shifting him into a top 6 role with the other 5 forwards being clearly established,then I think his chances for success would be much greater.
3. The wide range of possible minutes played. I think he could average anywhere from 10-16 minutes a night depending on role. If he gets some primetime on the 1PP then imo the estimated will be low. Other than that, I can see extended periods where he's lining up with extremely poor offensive options.
There's every chance Hall goes 2 weeks without a point playing for this team, and it wouldn't be a poor reflection on him. If you're Renney, do you send him out there or sit him for awhile?
Hall has great talent, the Oilers not so much. There will be growing pains.
based on the last few years, and the lack of 20 goal scorers, I'll take a rookie year of 20 goals form Hall. Who else will score 20 on this team?
ReplyDeletePenner
Hemsky
?
You can reasonably say that we will be lucky to have 3 20 goal scorers, so 20 from a rookie is a great start.
LT: I am not saying that you have a low reasonable expectations from Hall. On the contrary I am saying is that your "reasonable expectations" really are reasonable. Maybe I should have worded better.
ReplyDeleteYour expectations: 74 GP 20-20-40
Your expectations extrapolated to 82 games: 82 GP 22-22-44
Desjardins Equivalency: 17-29-46
So you really aren't that lower in your point expectancy. People are seeing 40 points and think its pretty low. But that is 74GP. a .541 ppg isnt really bad for a rookie. Its very "reasonable".
In my second comment I have said the same thing about Eberle and MPS cutting into Hall's ice-time when he struggles.
Tavares posted 82GP 24-30-54 points. So 44 points is more than insignificantly lower than Tavares. Even after that, he wasnt in the top 3 for the Calder nominations. A point can be made that Myers and Howard and also Duchene came out of nowhere, but that happens every season. There are always rookies who arent that hyped initially and go one to have splendid seasons. Last time a rookie forward who score less than 50 points and won the trophy was way back in 99 when Drury won it and scored 44 points.
SumOil: Ah, gotcha. Yeah, I think there's every chance that someone grabs the Calder, in fact your earlier list looks right.
ReplyDeleteI was thinking about this yesterday: timing is everything. If the Oilers had signed Omark and brought him over last season then he would certainly have some NHL experience by now.
As well, if Schremp had been placed on the injured reserve for a couple of weeks he too would have had a nice chance with the Oilers.
Now they're all trying to squeeze in at the same time, which means someone is going to lose out.
Earlier in the season i was thinking that the only was Omark gets on the team is if Oilers get rid of Nilsson and O'Sullivan. What I did not account for was the fact that Eberle Hall and MP start the season i9n the show. I still think that the chance of that happening is slim. I think both of Eberle and MP should start in the AHL and Hall and Omark in the NHL, provided that all play at a similar level in the training camp. But you are right, someone is going to get hurt and Omark is the obvious choice.
ReplyDeleteJays: Morrow throwing a gem right now. Working on a no no thru 7, 14Ks. even the announcers are not mentioning no-hitter.
ReplyDeleteLT said...
ReplyDeleteNow they're all trying to squeeze in at the same time, which means someone is going to lose out.
Isn't that the problem with clusters and full re-builds?
1 Hit on the last batter and 17 K's for the day. A pitching clinic by Brendan Morrow.
ReplyDelete(Is the K record 21 or 23?)
I'm really not sure you took into account how many times he's going to get the puck from Hemsky in a spot where 3/4 of the net is staring him in the face. I don't see him screwing it up.
ReplyDelete31-24-55 + ROTY
I think he'd be hideously disappointed in a 20-20 season.
Also to keep in mind: Hall turns 19 in November.
ReplyDeleteWas thinking about a contract for Gagner. What do you guys think of something like this. 7 years 25.3 million with a cap hit of 3.61 per year.
ReplyDelete2.2 - 2.8 - 3.2 - 3.6 - 4.0 - 4.5 - 5.0
You are out of your ****ing mind LT
ReplyDelete