Once upon a time, everyone loved Gilbert Brule. He was ranked as a lottery pick his draft year and no one in the entire land had a discouraging word. He was compared in style to Theo Fleury, and the toughest public scouts of all (Redline Report) threw away their cranky thesaurus and gushed:
If Brule follows Sidney Crosby as the 2nd overall pick in the draft, it will be the first time since 1981 (Dale Hawerchuk & Doug Smith) the top two picks were both under 6-0. Size isn’t a concern with Brule, because he plays such a big game. At times, he’s actually physically dominating because of his fearless and abrasive style. And let’s not forget about his offensive skills, which are NHL calibre. Brule has one of the hardest, most accurate shots we’ve ever seen in the WHL. As close to the complete package as a 5-10 player can ever be.
If we could skip from the day that scouting report was published right to opening night 09-10, the Gilbert Brule story would be a lot easier to explain. However, Brule was drafted by a team run by Mad Dogs and Englishmen and it cost the kid some years of his life and a few injuries. He lost his way, just as Daniel Cleary did years before when the Chicago Blackhawks also had no clue about what they were doing.
Gilbert Brule is going to have to deal with being 5.10 his whole life, and injuries too. He also played in some terribly good luck this past season, but I don't think we should be too hard on the kid. Fact is, he'd earned it. Gilbert Brule survived Doug MacLean's hockey genius; he may never have a more difficult experience.
- Boxcars: 65gp, 17-20-37
- Shots: 121
- Plus Minus: -8
- Corsi (Rel): 5.8 (5th among F's)
- GF/GA ON: 38-43
- 5x5/60: 2.36 (2nd among regulars)
- 5x4/60: 1.99 (11th among regulars)
- Quality of Competition: 10th F
- Quality of Teammates: 5th F
- FO %: 52.6 in 274 FO's
- Cap Hit: $1.85M
- What do these numbers tell us? Brule played in really good circumstances (soft minutes, reasonably good teammates) and he delivered an excellent season. So good in fact that it isn't going to be easy to repeat it. Brule scored 17 goals in 65 games; while averaging 12:42 a night at even strength he popped 15. If he's going to increase his numbers (or stay level) it'll come on the powerplay.
- How could these numbers be better? He delivered extremely well for the minutes played. The concern is that he stagnates or goes backwards. We'll feel a lot better about Gilbert Brule if he has a healthy and successful 10-11. But, based on this one season, I don't think we could have asked for more.
- Is he going to be a complete player? Brule didn't spend his season running around without a clue, but he isn't Donny Marcotte on the forecheck either. He did perform well in the FO circle. We can overrate the defensive aspects (he is after all a skill winger) but if he's playing with Penner (and Gagner) that line is going to face some tough music and it'll be all hands on deck.
- He's the most physical of the young forwards. And among the smallest, so I think that is going to be a net minus when we're done talking about Brule's career.
- Even though he may not repeat it, that's just a terrific EV/60 number. You bet, he had a fine season. I'm especially pleased he signed a reasonable contract. There's a chance we're talking about him being a value player one year from now, and after this past season there was a real danger the Oilers would 'Nilsson' him.
- Why didn't he get more of a push from Quinn? I think it was just luck and circumstance. Quinn wasn't exactly at the top of his game last season (juggling from sunup to sundown will do that to you) and the coaching staff seemed to like him in a specific even strength role. Maybe I'm making excuses, but if you look at the time on ice the coaching staff seems to have shown a preference to go with others.
- He could have had a much better season with more minutes. Or the added minutes might have done little to increase his boxcars and decrease his real value. One never knows and we'll probably see more minutes from Brule this season.
- How valuable is Brule to the Oilers? He's pretty valuable. Along with Gagner, Gilbert Brule is one of the young players who you can see making his way as an NHL player. He's not out of the woods yet, but the guy has a rifle and he's got gumption. That's a pretty unique skill set on this roster, especially if he can remain healthy.
- You like him. I'm beginning to. I don't think he's going to get any better than he is now, but there's a real chance the organization can find a role for him and that he can grab it and his career will have sustain. Gilbert Brule, former lottery pick, is going to need a little luck to have a successful career. But it is out there, after all.
By The Numbers
- 08-09 5x5 per 60m: 1.74
- 09-10 5x5 per 60m: 2.36
By The Numbers
- 08-09 5x4 per 60m: 0.00
- 09-10 5x4 per 60m: 1.99
Predictions Past 2009-10: 55gp, 7-8-15 (.273)
Performance in 2009-10: 65gp, 17-20-37 (.569)
Prediction for 2010-11: 75gp, 18-22-40 (.533)
Oilers find a shooter
If you play Brule with two responsible linemates, his job is very simple: Get the puck, skate into the offensive zone, fire it.
ReplyDeleteHe seems to score this way and in the garbage zone. You can make a career out of that and be a player worth having.
We're certainly improving in the shooting department; and I can't really remember the last time one of the teams that came into our building and was regarded as exceptional couldn't (nearly) all fire the puck.
Brule is another one of the players who got rushed to the show and couldn't live upto the pre-draft hype. If the guy had gotten at least another season in WHL, we might have been looking at a very different CBJ today.
ReplyDeleteThat said, your reasonable expectations series has me confused about the forward lines you expect from the Oilers to start the season. You say that Horcoff and Hemsky should be together. Then Hemsky and Penner have had great success together. In this particular one you expect Gagner with Penner. If Horcoff and Hemsky are to form a PvP line, then shouldn't Penner be the other winger on that line?
This is what I think might happen on the opening night.
Penner -Horcoff-Hemsky
Hall-Gagner-Brule
Both are good enough scorers to not waste Gagner's passing skills and both the wingers are gritty enough to create some space for Gagner to do his thing. Or is this line too inexperienced to face the 2nd toughest competition?
Sum,
ReplyDeleteThat looks like a butter soft second line. As in, make sure the other teams' cripples and old ladies are on the ice when they are on.
I thought Penner-Gagner-Brule looked better as #2, with Horc-Hemsky-Hall as #1 (subbing in Hall with MPS or others as needed).
Gilbert Brule seems like a great kid who was dropped in the meat grinder far too early and is only now pulling himself up into a serviceable NHL'er. Hope the kid pulls it off.
ReplyDeleteI also hope that something exceedingly heavy falls on Doug MacLean.
Chances with/without Brule
ReplyDeleteFor all that Brule encountered good fortune on the ice last season, he was less fortunate with his health, dealing with illness which seemed to persist for much of the season. IIRC he was knocked out of the line-up for one or more games on no fewer than five occasions, and presumably played at less than full fitness on other occasions. Assuming, perhaps dangerously, that that's in the past, gives reason to hope that there may be a little more in the tank.
ReplyDeleteI'd love to see this kid play 80 games this year.
"Why didn't he get more of a push from Quinn?"
ReplyDeleteI don't get this. Quinn basically saved his career.
Had the previous coach still been around we would be waiting for Brule to look dynamic on the 4th like with Stortini and his NHL career would probably be done.
Brule might have been short changed on the PP but he got a shot with Penner based on Pat Quinn seeing him good in the WHL.
To me Brule is the spitting image of Mike Fisher. Maybe not quite as good defensively but the speed, aggressiveness and quick release are all Fisher.
At very worst I think Brule ends up a slightly less greasy Matt Cooke with better offensive instincts.
He might only be 5'10 but no defender wants to see Brule coming at them with speed after a dump in.
I've always liked how the Oilers have had faith enough in themselves over the years to take on players with potential that haven't panned out in other orgs. It doesn't always pan out, but given the high draft pedigree of a player like Brule, it's certainly worth the team taking a flier. Especially given that the player we sent in return, Torres, seems to have pretty much played his way out of the league. I do think Brule will continue to get better and project him as 30 goal man if not this season then the next.
ReplyDeleteOff topic, and apologies to LT for this, I watched that 'Oil Change' doc again last night and came away even less impressed with Kevin Lowe than I was after the first watching. In one scene in particular, he asks Tyler Seguin a question and then stares at his computer while Tyler responds. Seguin looked clearly uncomfortable and I couldn't help but think about Souray's comments about "management" during that exchange. Whether it was referring to Glenn's Anderson's ability to play a reckless style to the Oiler's original draft list given to Katz to gushing over Taylor Hall attending the Heritage Classic, Lowe came across as a man very much stuck in the nostalgia of the team's past. Tambellini comes across as a capable man who could simply benefit from a year or two of Toastmasters. lol Seems deliberate and intelligent in his approach, but I think his lack of articulation hampers his public perception.
"Brule is another one of the players who got rushed to the show and couldn't live upto the pre-draft hype."
ReplyDeletePretty hard to live up to the draft hype when you play 6 minutes a night on the 4th line.
Stamkos looked like shit under the same circumstances until Melrose got his pink slip.
"Chances with/without Brule"
ReplyDeleteMoreau was 171/288 without Brule and then 4/17 with Brule.
I knew Moreau was bad but I had no idea that his SC were that tilted.
Poor Cogs.
"I watched that 'Oil Change' doc again last night and came away even less impressed with Kevin Lowe than I was after the first watching.
ReplyDeleteIn one scene in particular, he asks Tyler Seguin a question and then stares at his computer while Tyler responds."
The horror. Kay Lowe is such a meanie.
Yes, it's hardly a capital offence but I do think if you are in a position of leadership you should be capable of looking someone in the eye, particularly when that person is responding to a question you asked.
ReplyDeleteLowe (Mr. 6 rings) comes across as someone who's been there done that and possibly don't have the respect he could for those who haven't. He certainly doesn't convey to me the same respect for others that Steve Yzerman has demonstrated thus far.
@Bruce.....me too! i'm praying we can get a full season from Brule and, perhaps with different linemates, he could blossom like we hope Gagner is on the verge of doing.
ReplyDeleteI refuse to judge anybody for last season because JFJ/Moreau were on the team. They were quicksand filled with zombies clawing at your ankles. It's like icing a normal line, but everyone is wearing 150 pound vests.
ReplyDelete@ Lee,
ReplyDelete...or he noticed that Seguin was nervous and did the kid a favor by not looking directly at him.
Fair enough, I'll give him a pass on the Seguin exchange. That aside, he did come across as a man living in the past in the greater portion of that mockumentary.
ReplyDeleteLowe also came across (as always) as guy who loves this team like no other though.
ReplyDeleteEven if it's probably the right and fair call, it would kill a part of me to ever see him shown the door.
Reddox re-signed! The team is saved!
ReplyDelete(I actually like Reddox fine, and don't object to his being re-signed; I just like to hyperbolize about his importance because he's so completely inconsequential.)
"Even if it's probably the right and fair call, it would kill a part of me to ever see him shown the door."
ReplyDeleteAgreed, as long as he's not the final say on personnel or cap spend, I don't have a problem with him staying in the org. He is our original draft pick after all and you're absolutely right, he bleeds Oiler blue. Just have a problem with him steering the ship. Ken Holland he is NOT.
With his management skills now proven, Lowe could have a job for life - as a greeter for fans who come to visit the arena.
ReplyDeleteLike Joe Louis in Las Vegas.
Wow, gushed is right. That' a veritable love letter from RLR.
ReplyDeleteGilbert Brule survived Doug MacLean's hockey genius; he may never have a more difficult experience.
That line cracked me up. Thx, LT.
I'm cheering for Gilbert. He seemed to have a lot of luck last year, but at least he places himself in positions where good luck can have an effect. I think we'll have a pretty good idea after this year if there's any more upside to his game, but I suspect you're right, LT, we're probably seeing the top end or close to it. Vision, smarts might be the limiting factors.
This kid though is the young'un who reminds me of Gelinas--a bowling ball with a rifle. And I think he's likely on the path to the same journeyman career.
From that p.o.v. I think it'd more likely we have him on a value contract than not.
Let's not spit on one of the guys that played like he gave a damn last year shall we.
ReplyDeleteBrule had a 2nd chance and he took it beautifully. On his first goal vs the Flames he showed what he could bring to the team: A shot who can score from the outside. It'l be a fun ride to see if this kid can improve and become an important member of the rebuild.
Reddox deal is a 2 way right? Anybody got the $$?
ReplyDeleteNevermind. Good old cap geek is on top of it:
ReplyDelete$92k in OKC, $550k up north.
Decent raise from last year:
65k, 515k
Decent? Wish they gave raises like that here in the "real world".
ReplyDeleteAnd, Brule is a nice guy...hope lady luck french kisses Brule and he hasa great year.
ReplyDeleteAnon - re: raises
ReplyDeleteThey do give raises like that (percentage-wise anyway). He's also generating much more revenue than most of us. (I'm assuming we have some entrepreneurs/professionals/etc lurking who haul in some pretty good dough as well)
Wow on the Kovalchuk case.
ReplyDeleteI guess we won't be hearing about a 25-year, $2 million cap hit contract for Gagner...
Kovy deal being rejected is hilarious.
ReplyDeleteLooks amazing on Lou.
As for Brule....
Percentages will take a big hit and he's as injury prone as they come, so I'd be happy with the projected season because I just don't see it.
I'd like to see the kid with a bit more icetime. I think if he stays healthy he will produce. As far as I am concerned last year was his rookie season in a lot of ways.
ReplyDeleteAnd hey LT I've been dealing with being 5'9 my whole life. Let me tell you. it ain't easy being green but us little guys just hang around.
And yes I am well aware that that makes no sense but I am a day away from vacation and I'm in the wine a little early so what can I say.
Having said that for all of those folks checking out the Summit Series shit that we are working on game two will be up sometime tomorrow, just in the nick of time. A tweak or two and it will be ready.
ReplyDeleteIronic that one of the best baseball movies is about girls playing it.
ReplyDeleteBD, at 5'9" you're a positive giant. Try being 5'7" and having a go at the 5'8" ladies =).
ReplyDeleteOh well, I'm still expecting that growth spurt any day now...that and my man hair to come in.
By the by, anyone think of a better handle for Brule than the oft used Creme Brule?
PDO, judging by his reactions before/during/after, I think he's kind of glad that this happened.
ReplyDeleteHe kept talking about how ownership really wanted this player, and I was never convinced that he was too keen on getting him locked up.
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ReplyDeleteApparently the league is investigating the Luongo, Savard, Hossa, and Pronger deals "with at least the possibility of a subsequent withdrawal of the registration." Did the NHL just not notice those contracts when they were first signed, or what?
ReplyDeleteSteve: I posted this under the original Kovalchuk thread. I thought it was interesting to see the NHLPA challenge because there was a potential to open up a big can of worms.
ReplyDeleteJosh said...
On the Hossa/Luongo contracts:
I'm interested to see if the League will now challenge more than one of these contracts.
Section 26.10(d) of the CBA:
There shall be no limitation of time barring the investigation of a
Circumvention by the Commissioner.
This seems to at least suggest that the league could go back to look at these contracts and file a complaint through the System Arbitrator, but that seems like an odd possibility to me. It would definitely be interesting, I seem to recall the league took a long look at the Hossa contract.
9:38 AM, July 21, 2010