Today begins our "reasonable expectations" series. In the next 30 days or so, I'll go through the expected roster and ask a few questions about each player's season, how their role may change, how the coach might use them and then attempt to set a reasonable line in the sand for 10-11 performance.
Much of the groundwork for these posts was done earlier in the year and I apologize if some of the material appears to be familiar. It is. Having said that, we appear to have a clearer picture now about roster makeup and the 10-11 Oilers.
We begin this season where we left off last year: somewhat in awe of Dustin Penner.
On August 4 last year, I posted the following on Penner and expectations: The curse of the big man in hockey is that his stride makes him look lazy. A little imp like Tie Domi used to excite the crowd with choppy little strides and a grimace, while Dustin Penner looks like he is lollygagging or that the wind just blew him in the right direction. Dustin Penner looks (like Peter Mahovlich and Joe Thornton and many others) like there should be another gear.
Whatever his failures--real or imagined--Dustin Penner is a helluva hockey player. Much of the season was spent with suspects to his left and right, but the big man performed admirably. Dustin Penner is a quality NHL player.
•Boxcars: 82gp, 32-31-63
•Shots: 203
•Plus Minus: +6
•Corsi (Rel): 17.0 (1st F)
•GF/GA ON: 58-48
•5x5/60: 2.40 (1st F)
•5x4/60: 3.93 (3rd F)
•Quality of Competition: 7th F
•Quality of Teammates: 3rd F
•FO Percentage: 47.6% in 420FO's
•OZone FO %: 45.6 (3rd toughest F)
•Cap Hit: $4.25M
All references in terms of secondary numbers are courtesy Desjardins. Penner's 5x5 SP was .909, meaning he was a little more fortunate in this area than his mates. You may notice some of the numbers have been altered from the last time, it looks like our friend Gabriel has been tweaking.
- What do these numbers tell is? Penner was the best player on the team by enough that we can absolutely conclude he was the straw that stirred the drink. It is giggle worthy that all of the other forwards performance numbers spike when placed on his line and despite some dry stretches Penner was far and away the outstanding player for the 10-11 Oilers. I can't imagine his point total if Hemsky had been healthy the entire season.
- How Could these numbers be better? According to Gabriel, Penner didn't play the toughest minutes (Pisani, Horcoff, Moreau) over the season. However, much of that measurement surely took place later in the season when Pat Quinn gave in and devoted a "checking line" to the tougher opposition. Previous to that, and certainly on the road all season, Dustin Penner was the only game in town for the opposition to focus on. I don't think we can be too critical based on results. It goes without saying 83's injury impacted his final boxcars.
- Did Quinn help him? I think Quinn did help Penner in that earlier in the season OTC rolled 4 lines and that gave the big man some opportunities. On the other hand, he played some tough opposition and crushed them (I'm thinking specifically of a game very late in the season against Dallas when the big man went Buford Pusser on the Stars' ass).
- Why did Quinn break up the Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky combo? Penner, Horcoff and Hemsky did play together early but injuries and ineffective play meant shakeup early on. Horcoff's ability to play well away from the puck combined with awful puck luck meant he was utilized in a more defensive role and Penner was relied on to produce an offensive line nightly. I don't really know anyone who would have thought their roles should be reversed. After Hemsky went down, they were the two best F's on the roster and the coaching staff (eventually) got around to using their strengths.
- So it was a great season. Do you think MacT lit a fire under his ass? I've never bought that. I'm a MacT guy but his comments were beyond the pale and I think a clear sign the coach had been too long at the fair. Dustin Penner isn't a buzzsaw, if he was (at his size) he'd be dead. It goes back to the quote at the beginning of this post, Penner never looks like he's giving max effort but buddy is moving. Guys his size are more effective using their strength to remove players from the puck and Penner had a wonderful season in that regard, especially in the opposition end.
- Will he play center in 10-11? I've been thinking about this for awhile and I'm hoping they keep him at LW. The C job is complicated in all kinds of ways, mostly in your end and Penner (although improved) isn't exactly Mike Peca in terms of read and react. Why not play to his strengths? I've watched some crazy moves in my time ("Tim Raines can play second base!" or "JF Jacques should play on the top line!") and moving Penner to C wouldn't be the craziest; however, Penner has proven that he can impact the offense playing LW so its probably a good idea to find a solution to the problem elsewhere.
- What line should he play on? Ideally you'd have the depth elsewhere to run a Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky trio, but there doesn't look to be enough (and that's being kind) depth on the current roster. I'd place him with Gagner and run the kids through to see if there's any chem. If there isn't, then Brule (if he isn't a center) might be a nice match.
- What will Renney do? Play the living shit out of him. Seriously. Renney had Jagr over 6 minutes on the PP early in his time coaching the Rangers, and Straka, Nylander and Rucinsky were close to 5. I'd guess Hemsky, Penner and someone like Brule or Hall will get mondo PP minutes. Now that I think of it, they'll probably give all the top rookies some chances on the powerplay (Hall, Pääjärvi, Eberle) to see what they can do.
- What about EVs? Penner played 14 minutes a night at even-strength last season. Renney isn't going to roll 4 lines with MacIntyre and Jacques in the lineup so that number is likely to increase a little, with Penner heading toward 20 minutes a night overall.
- What about PK? I think he'd be good at it, but would think the Oilers can find someone less central to the offense to use in that role. Penner spent 1:15 a night on the PK last season.
- Will they trade Penner? Renney likes the big skill guys, so I think Penner gets a strong contract offer as he heads to free agency in 2012. However, if someone comes calling at the deadline with an overpay ST would be a fool to turn a blind eye. Penner will be 28 on opening night, so the club needs to decide if he is part of the future sometime in the next 12 months.
- Where will he be opening night 2010-11? Starts the game, with 10 and 83.
•06-07 5x5 per 60m: 1.92
•07-08 5x5 per 60m: 1.34
•08-09 5x5 per 60m: 1.71
•09-10 5x5 per 60m: 2.43
By The Numbers
•06-07 5x4 per 60m: 4.01
•07-08 5x4 per 60m: 4.07
•08-09 5x4 per 60m: 3.15
•09-10 5x4 per 60m: 3.97
Predictions Past 2009-10: 80gp, 20-21-41 (.513 per game)
Performance in 2009-10: 82gp, 32-31-63 (.769 per game)
Prediction for 2010-11: 81gp, 35-35-70 (.864)
Penner delivers an actual Frank Mahovlich season
I was actually surprised in your RE to not see a more substantial increase in his counting numbers.
ReplyDeleteThe important factor you probably looked at but didn't comment on was that his Sh% will regress from 15.8 towards his career avg of 13.3.
Despite your lofty projection, I still think I'd wager over for his output this year... pending an equivalent Souray replacement. If they can get it into the offensive zone, Penner is going to have a big year.
till horcoff is coach: I also factored in the absolute lack of proven talent up front. Penner is likely to play many minutes with raw rookies due to injury, slumps, etc.
ReplyDeleteThose rookies are going to be very costly.
Right on as usual, LT.
ReplyDeleteNot so much complaining about the offer sheet or cap hit these days, eh?
Raw rookies they might be, but they're also incredibly talented. They will naturally cause goals against, but should make it up to a large extent by relatively sustainable flashes of brilliance.
ReplyDeleteThe upcoming season looks like either another lottery pick or the playoffs - either way it's going to be more fun for the fans than anything they've seen since back in the the day of 33rpm records.
I can't imagine his point total if Hemsky had been healthy the entire season.
ReplyDeleteFurther to THIC's point, the S% with him on the ice last year was 10.1% and he was in on 75% of the goals. I wouldn't be so sure about the bump in scoring.
Thanks for drawing in other useful stats Tyler.
ReplyDeleteSo there are many reasons to go down, but doesn't an expected near 50% increase in ice-time incl. significant PP time offset those two considerably?
As for rookies... I am still picturing his time either with 10-83 or 89-67/Eberle. Either way, he will be expected to score and given the players to do so.
I'm not trying to say he's All-Star... just that even with the look at stats and team composition, I think he'll be in for a good year. Stats predicting otherwise will help tame my optimism though.
I've never bought much into advanced stats, mainly because I can't understand them yet, but it would seem that an argument could be made that Hemsky for a full season might have actually decreased Penner's counting stats.
ReplyDeleteIt's been established that Hemsky has been the stir for this drink the last three seasons or so, and with him on the shelf for so long this year we had to go out and find another (paddle-sized) stirring device. Penner as a result got the absolute cherry minutes and yes, he produced. But it should be pointed out that this was as a result of having no one else for the Oilers to turn to.
I'd wager his 10/11 stats hover at about the level he had this past season. 30-30-60.
Dorito am I reading the last two thirds of your post correctly? You dont think having Hemsky in the lineup makes life easier on Penner and his point totals higher?
ReplyDeletePlaying with Hemsky, Penner can expect slick passes coming his way that are almost destined for the back of the net even before they reach his stick, and he is exactly the type of guy who will be able to clean up some goals in the chaotic wake Hemsky has been known to stir up in other teams zones. Even if they play seperately, that just means Penner is likely not receiving top attention from other teams top pairing.
I think LT has it right, hopefully Renney just keeps it simple and plays his best three positional forwards on the top line, his best checkers on the "3rd line", his bodycheckers on the fourth and the leftover talented youth on the softie line. Problems solved! Feel free to cut my argument up DG, I am even more ignorant than you claim to be in regard to advanced stats, but in my experience the more really good players a team has the easier it is on the not so good players.
LT: You're citing Penner's FO Finish %, not his Start % (which is ~46% off the top of my head.)
ReplyDeletequain: Right you are, it looked a little wonky.
ReplyDeleteHey Lowetide, could you shoot me an email? I have a personal note to send. bbillo@gmail.com
ReplyDelete''Horcoff's ability to play well away from the puck combined with awful puck luck meant he was utilized in a more defensive role ''
ReplyDeleteThem Pink glasses.
I would like to see a comparison between Gagner and Horcoff last year, went they played with H and P. (Also H and P's stats with both of them)
I'll take a brief moment to pat myself on the back and say I wrote a post on my blog last August about Penner being underrated. lol In all seriousness, I'm happy that last season was such a good season given all the adversity he's had to deal with, with the coach and fans crapping all over him the year before.
ReplyDeleteAnyways, I think he's pretty solid, two-way.. but I'm a bit worried about giving him too much ice time. As great as he was last year, I think if they push him for too long, he could burn out part way into the season. But he definitely is "the straw that stirs the drink", as you said, he just makes anyone on his line look all that much better (and at both ends of the ice).
~Who's stupid idea was it to sign him to a 5 year, $4.25M per deal, anyways??~
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ReplyDeleteI would like to see a comparison between Gagner and Horcoff last year, went they played with H and P. (Also H and P's stats with both of them)
ReplyDeleteYou're a big boy and can run Vic's scripts yourself if you're looking for Corsi (and I don't really care if you're looking for counting stats), but here's the chance data, all 5v5:
10-83-27: 42 CF, 32 CA, 56.8%
89-83-27: 32 CF, 25 CA, 56.1%
Neither had a long run, so I wouldn't really consider these stats particularly important, but I don't see a lot of difference offensively there.
But, just to give equal time to Horcoff bashers, here's Penner with Gagner and with Horcoff:
10-27 (ex. 83): 32 CF, 46 CA, 41.0%
89-27 (ex. 83): 138 CF, 111 CA, 55.4%
WHAT A SUXOR!!!!
(That stat is a pretty good reason why I'd run 89-27-xx next year and 10-83-xx. Horcoff and Hemsky run well together, Penner and Gagner can get it done without 83. No reason to stack a line that doesn't need it.)
You folks really need to join the rest of the hockey world and stop putting the center first in your lineups. Confusing. lol
ReplyDeleteIn all seriousness, I always liked Penner-Gagner-Cogliano. I think the 3 perform well together, but haven't really had that extended of playtime together. If Cogliano sticks, I'd like to see that. If he doesn't, and if this team acquires a 3rd line center, then perhaps Brule can play the wing with Penner and Gagner. But I really do like Penner and Gagner together.
Perhaps they could do:
Hall-Horcoff-Hemsky
Penner-Gagner-Cogliano
MPS-??-Eberle (very sheltered minutes)
On line 4 would be Fraser at C with a combination of JFJ, Jones, MacIntyre and Stortini
Catch 06:
ReplyDeleteThe way I see it, the other players on the team responded to Penner being The Man last year and would always feed him the puck the way it's been with Hemsky. Give it to the meal ticket and let him do his thing, that kind of mentality. With Hemsky back I thing Penner won't get as many touches, as they say in football.
Penner has always been quality and those who couldn't see it would've jumped off a bridge if MacT told them so.
ReplyDeleteI don't like coach pb very much but the guy absolutely nailed it and it took most around here a couple years to catch up with what he was saying.
He's our best player. Has been for some time.
Penner Chances with/without
ReplyDeleteMaybe something I'll put together for each of these RE posts, since it's always interesting how they shake out.
Link is a chart of all forwards Penner registered at least 25 Chances For/Chances Against with during the season. Shows for each of those forwards their chance production with Penner and without and then the percentage point change in % of Chances For.
He obviously kills by this metric, but it would've been much less ridiculous if this team dressed actual left wings instead of corpses.
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ReplyDelete"Penner Chances with/without"
ReplyDeleteThose are crazy numbers.
What's interesting is common sense tells us that Penner was facing tough opposition (he was the only player other clubs had to worry about) and yet everyone that played with him excelled.
It supports my theory that the best way to shelter a player is to play him with quality as opposed to playing with fodder against fodder
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ReplyDeleteQuain's CF/CA data is interesting when correlated with qualcomp.
ReplyDeleteAnyone who faced easier comp. than Penner (and "common sense" tells me, on the whole, Penner didn't face the toughest comp over the course of the year, partly as a result of Quinn's rolling lines 1-2-3 at home) who also experienced a drop off their CF/CA % is someone who Penner was carrying.
# --- Change CF/CA --- Qualcomp.
10 --- 8.1 --- .068
12 --- 12.6 --- -.082
13 --- -0.06 --- -.023
16 --- 17 --- -.015
19 --- 4.1 --- -.009
67 --- 8.1 --- -.033
83 --- 14.9 --- -.025
89 --- 14.1 --- -.059
91 --- 5.9 --- -.048
Penner --- N/A --- -0.28
Regardless of what Traktor's "common sense" tells him, some players saw substantially tougher comp. than Penner. Those players should expect to see their CF/CA drop away from Penner, due to facing tougher comp. That group includes Horcoff and POS.
Players who faced similar comp., include Cogliano, Brule, and Potulny. I think every player in these two groups could claim that when not playing with Penner, they either had to play tougher comp. or they played with terrible teammates (esp. Jacques and Moreau) Horcoff can say the comp. was too tough and the linemates too crappy. Brule and Cogliano could make similar claims, and that's reasonably good news regarding all three players. IMO.
Nilsson, however, fares terribly by this metric.
Oh, and as an aside, I think the weirdly low qual comp. numbers for Hemsky and also Comrie show how little line matching Quinn did early on. Just 1-2-3 all day long, and it kept Hemsky away from the tough comp.
Anyway, this is all a bit messy, but I think it shows the prolem we had all year after Hemsky went down. We used Horcoff to anchor a tough minutes line with any-two-guys-who-couldn't-handle-it and Penner with Gagner,Brule,Cogliano.
Penner's line was great and he showed that he can carry two guys against middling comp. Horcoff's line got killed, because Horcoff couldn't carry two guys against the toughest comp.
All of this shows that Gagner, Cogs, Brule, Horcoff, and Penner are not a very good top 6. However, I think they could form a pretty 2nd and 3rd line. With Hemsky back, and Horcoff healthy, and maybe one rookie working, we should be a little closer to having a decent top 9 group.
END BABBLE
I think there are two ways to look at Quality of Competition.
ReplyDeleteOne being where players are playing against the oppositions best offensive players.
The other being where players are playing against the oppositions best defensive players.
Sure Horcoff played the tough offensive opposition but I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts that Penner was facing the tough checkers more often than not.
Gabe even states on his website that Qual Comp is a flawed but useful analysis because of the fact defensive specialists tend to get dinged more in the +/-.
Just to add a bit to the argument. I think it's safe to say that Penner did not line up against the other team's top scorers.
ReplyDeleteBut I think it would be foolish to say that he did not face the toughest checkers teams had to offer. He was the only legitimate threat last year and any coach in the league worth his salt would have made sure his best checkers were out against Penner's line.
Cool stuff Quain. You should really start a blog to post these things, they can get lost on comment threads.
ReplyDeletePenner is a good player, but I think he really benefitted from not having to play with Jacques or Moreau. I mean Comrie looked terrific on LW in the handful of games he played there, Stone too. Thing is, they were either replacing Moreau/Jacques for the gig on a line, or being guaranteed no ice time with either.
I don't know if there is a site that showed what position each player played, or even started, in a game. The NHL doesn't seem to bother, they'll routinely show 7 centers and 1 ringht winger on a game sheet.
Any chance you could show us everybody's scoring chance +s in -s in terms of (with either 22 or 18) and (with neither of them)?
I mean it's no small feat to make Hemsky look bad, but Jacques managed to do just that in the games I saw. And, to my mind, no amount of Lucic video watching is going to change that.
And Moreau's line was where forwards went to struggle. Surely a lot of that has to be Ethan's fault. Sooner or later it stops being coincidence.
Chances With/Without Terrible Players
ReplyDeleteSame format as the previous one. %EWTP stands for Precentage of Events With Terrible Players. This was thrown together so if something seems out of whack with the math let me know and I'll double check.
This team is going to look a lot better if JFJ throws out his back early and MPS/Hall are even slightly above replacement level.
Just great stuff, Quain.
ReplyDeleteBy my sums, the aggregate of the 11 AHL callups + short term guys (MacIntyre, maybe someone else) rolled up to make one big player that was considerably worse than Moreau. This with teammates and opposition + zone starts considered. I guess it was the last place team in the AHL, we shouldn't have been expecting much. Still ... a disaster.
If they'd had a farm team like MTLs or CHIs they would have faired better. But they didn't. And with the rash of injuries and illness it really did spiral out of control. That seems o be remedied this year.
With D, while it's obviously better to have a guy like Keith on your roster, the real trick seems to be to avoid having a bottom pairing that doesn't get murdered.
PHX and N.J seem to have that figured out already. PHI seems to be going that direction. The current fashion everywhere else in the league seems to be to get big, tough, character guys for the bottom pairing, that and rookies learning on the job ... and it's ending badly for them.
Wolfie, in your opinion, which teams still role out a checking line?
ReplyDeleteAnd who makes up the checking line of those teams?
Quain: That's outstanding. Made me learn and laugh all at once.
ReplyDeleteHate to make heretical remarks, but Saint Fernando looks like a TP by that metric no matter who he's playing with.
Fernando also missed a big chunk of the season and his primary role when he did play was as the "checking" line RW.
ReplyDeleteNo question the guy has lost a step and illness/injury has reduced his effectiveness (mostly because he is missing large chunks and getting back into games when he's no where close to being back at game speed)... but I think he has potential to be a value signing. Definitely do your homework on him though and make sure he's okay, but at anything under $1mil/season and he could be a huge bargain.